Group 1 - The article draws parallels between the current financial market situation and the events surrounding President Nixon's administration, particularly regarding the pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates [1][3][4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased significantly, rising over 130 basis points to approximately 7.6% during Nixon's era, compared to the current level of around 4.3% [4][5] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, with potential implications for future monetary policy and market stability [4][5] Group 2 - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell significantly after Nixon ended the gold standard, and similar trends are observed today with the dollar index down nearly 10% this year [3][4] - The stock market experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 6% before a subsequent decline of 19% within a year after reaching its peak [3][4] - The yield curve has steepened, indicating increased market expectations for monetary policy easing, which could lead to higher long-term interest rates due to inflation concerns [5]

芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：特朗普以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为为由罢免美联储理事库克，成为1913年美联储成立以来首次。当前美联储理事会中沃勒和鲍曼2 位理事均由特朗普提名，未来若特朗普提名的新理事米兰能够获得参议院批准，且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会中将有4人与特朗普 立场一致，超过半数。罢免消息公布后，市场对未来更多"特朗普派"的理事就职预期令明年的降息预期升温，而对美联储独立性和美元信用的担忧则令长 端美债利率和黄金价格上行，美元指数下行。向前看，由于罢免风波前景未明，对美联储独立性的担忧料将持续发酵，预计黄金价格将阶段性维持高位、 美债期限溢价走阔。 特朗普宣布罢免美联储理事库克，为历史首次。美东时间2025年8月25日，特朗普签署文件，以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为，依据《联邦储备 法》正式罢免美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）。本次行动为1913年美联储成立以来首次由总统直接罢免理事的案例，也是特朗普就任总统以来对美联储独 立性的最强力的一次直接干预。 法律进展：罢免理由仍存在争议，后续库克或上诉至最高法院。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by former President Trump has raised significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to immediate reactions in the financial markets, including a drop in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices [1][15][29]. Group 1: Dismissal and Market Reactions - Trump's announcement to dismiss Cook was made via social media, claiming it was "immediate" and led to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [1][15]. - The dollar index fell by 0.3%, dropping below 98.3, while gold prices reached a historical high of over $2600 per ounce [15]. - The market's reaction indicates investor concerns regarding the potential challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence [1][17]. Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - Cook's position was nominated by President Biden and is set until 2038, raising questions about the legality of Trump's actions [6][24]. - Trump's justification for the dismissal revolves around allegations of Cook submitting false information regarding her housing loans, but the legal basis for such a dismissal remains uncertain [4][24]. - The potential for a court battle over Cook's dismissal could further politicize the Federal Reserve, impacting its traditional independence [24][26]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Risks - The Federal Reserve has historically been viewed as an independent entity, crucial for maintaining global financial stability [10][11]. - Trump's actions are seen as a direct challenge to this independence, reminiscent of past political pressures on central banks, which have led to economic instability [20][28]. - If the Federal Reserve succumbs to political pressure, it could undermine the credibility of the dollar and lead to a loss of market confidence in U.S. monetary policy [17][29].

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump may signal the end of the Fed's independence, a situation that financial markets have not fully priced in [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's action could mark a critical turning point for the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to higher inflation and increased market volatility if the White House gains control over monetary policy [1]. - Evercore ISI warns that the market's current calmness does not adequately reflect the risks associated with the potential loss of Fed independence [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Historical Context - The market's response to Trump's threats against the Fed has been muted, partly due to dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, leading investors to mistakenly assume that future Fed officials will act based solely on economic data [2]. - Trump's gradual approach to exerting control over the Fed mirrors his trade policies, creating an illusion of stability while implementing significant changes [3]. Group 3: Potential Changes in Fed Leadership - If Trump successfully replaces Cook, he could appoint a majority of the Fed's Board of Governors, which may shift the decision-making dynamics within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [4]. - The potential removal of regional Fed presidents could further consolidate Trump's influence over monetary policy, despite the current structure that limits immediate control [4][5]. Group 4: Loyalty and Political Influence - Trump's strategy of seeking to dismiss Cook sends a clear message that he may take similar actions against any Fed official who does not align with his preferences [6]. - The current environment has led to a shift in how Fed nominees express their views, with many now openly supporting Trump's calls for lower interest rates despite prevailing economic conditions [7]. Group 5: Inflation Outlook - Short-term inflation is expected to be influenced by economic conditions rather than Fed actions, with a temporary rise anticipated due to tariffs before returning to target levels [8]. - The current macroeconomic policies, including high tariffs and stimulative fiscal measures, create an environment conducive to exceeding target inflation levels, suggesting a structural shift in inflation dynamics [8].

美媒评"特朗普试图掌控美联储"：他或许会成功，但美国终将后悔 中新网8月27日电 日前，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，引发广泛争议。库克随即 回应称特朗普无权解雇她，将继续履职。 当地时间26日，美国《华尔街日报》发布评论文章《如果特朗普执掌美联储会怎样？》，指出特朗普解 雇库克，表露出他欲将货币政策置于自己的掌控之下。特朗普此举或许会成功，但美国终将为此后悔。 "夺权行动" 《华尔街日报》称，库克面临的刑事指控，也对其他美联储理事造成影响，令他们面临着"如不降息， 后果自负"的威胁。 分析称，如果特朗普最终能够在这场法律战中获胜，他将能随意解雇其他理事会成员，从实际上控制决 定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)，并影响地区联邦储备银，但这并不符合国家的最大利益。 文章提出，如果央行沦为政客的工具，可能带来负面后果。美国历史上，理查德·尼克松曾向时任美联 储主席施压，要求保持宽松货币政策，结果导致了20世纪70年代的大通胀。 评论认为，特朗普完全可以通过提名新的理事会成员、任命美联储主席继任者等方式改变美联储，但他 似乎认为可以亲自掌控货币政策，而不在意制度的完整性。 美媒警告，如果特朗普 ...

Core Viewpoint - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard warns that multiple regional Fed presidents may be dismissed next year due to politically motivated actions by President Trump, which could disrupt the Fed's independence and monetary policy [1][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump's recent dismissal of Fed Governor Cook opens the door for potential changes in the leadership of the Federal Reserve, allowing Trump to gain a majority on the seven-member Board of Governors [2] - Currently, there are two known dovish members on the Fed Board, Bowman and Waller, and Trump has nominated Stephen Miran to fill a vacant seat [2] Group 2: Terms and Voting Procedures - According to the Federal Reserve Act, regional Fed presidents serve five-year terms, with renewals subject to board votes and approval from the Fed Board [2] - The Fed Board plans to vote on the reappointment of the 12 regional Fed presidents in February 2026, with five regional presidents having voting rights on interest rates each year [2] Group 3: Inflation Risks - Trump has criticized Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues for not lowering interest rates this year, citing concerns that Trump's tariff policies could reignite inflation [3] Group 4: Pressure on Federal Reserve Independence - Brainard views Trump's attack on Cook as part of a broader effort to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve, which she describes as an unprecedented attack on the Fed's independence [4][5] - She warns that attempts to alter the voting majority of the Federal Open Market Committee could lead to higher inflation, decreased credibility, and potentially higher long-term interest rates, which would be detrimental to the economy [5]

Group 1 - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, potentially allowing him to appoint a more dovish candidate, which could lead to greater control over the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The market reacted negatively to the news, with the dollar weakening across the board, short-term Treasury yields declining, and safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin gaining popularity [1][3] - Analysts express concerns that this action undermines trust in the Federal Reserve as an independent institution, which may pose long-term challenges to the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [2][4] Group 2 - The expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve following Cook's dismissal is likely to increase the prospects of interest rate cuts, further pressuring the dollar [3][4] - The demand for gold, yen, and Bitcoin is rising as investors seek to hedge against the potential long-term implications of diminished Federal Reserve independence [4][5] - Despite the market's initial reaction, analysts believe that the potential risks have not been fully priced in, indicating high uncertainty for the future [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank suggests that if Trump successfully gains control of the Federal Reserve Board with four dovish votes, it could lead to aggressive monetary easing policies and allow for unilateral actions to lower the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB), bypassing the FOMC's decisions [1][3][12] Group 1: Control of the Federal Reserve Board - Trump's administration is seeking to gain control of the Federal Reserve Board by dismissing Governor Cook, which would enable the implementation of aggressive monetary policies [3][6] - Following the resignation of Governor Kuger, Trump has garnered increasing support for dovish monetary policies within the committee [4] - If Trump appoints a candidate favoring significant rate cuts to replace Cook, the power dynamics within the Board will change dramatically, potentially leading to a majority of dovish votes [6][7] Group 2: Impact on Monetary Policy - The emergence of four stable dovish votes within the Board would significantly increase internal pressure for faster and larger rate cuts, even amidst high inflation data [7][12] - The Board's majority could utilize its power to unilaterally lower the IORB, which has historically been aligned with FOMC targets, thus challenging the traditional decision-making framework [9][10] - This unilateral action could lead to unprecedented dynamics in the money market, creating potential chaos and directly impacting the FOMC's traditional decision-making process [11] Group 3: Restructuring the FOMC - The majority within the Federal Reserve Board also holds the long-term power to reshape the composition of the FOMC voting members, as all 12 regional Federal Reserve Presidents require Board approval for reappointment every five years [12][13] - A Board majority seeking aggressive easing could veto the reappointment of hawkish regional Fed Presidents, gradually eliminating opposing voices and paving the way for long-term easing policies [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook is a calculated power grab aimed at controlling monetary policy, potentially sacrificing the remaining independence of the Federal Reserve [1][5][10] Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Trump's action to dismiss Cook is characterized as a "well-planned coup" against the Federal Reserve, threatening the independence of the institution [1][5] - Cook's potential lawsuit against Trump for her dismissal could lead to a landmark legal battle, highlighting the tension between presidential power and the independence of the Fed [1][3] Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - The article questions whether the president can arbitrarily dismiss a Fed governor, emphasizing the legal ambiguity surrounding the term "for cause" in federal law [4][6] - If Trump succeeds in this legal battle, it could set a precedent allowing him to dismiss other board members, effectively controlling the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [7] Group 3: Historical Context and Risks - The article draws parallels to historical instances where political interference in central banking led to economic turmoil, citing examples from Turkey and Argentina, as well as the U.S. experience during Nixon's presidency [8] - It warns that Trump's desire to control the Fed could have long-term negative consequences for the economy, particularly if future administrations exploit a politically pliable Fed [9][10]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump, raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and increasing risk aversion, which has led to a rise in gold prices, reaching a near two-week high [1] - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) increased by 0.27%, with net inflows of 197 million over the past ten trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The analysis from CITIC Futures suggests that the downward trend in the U.S. labor market may lead to a potential restart of the Fed's rate cut cycle in September, which could support gold prices in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the market may experience a phase of trading based on the risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could further bolster the gold trend [1] - Despite the strong performance of global equity markets, particularly in emerging markets, the weak fundamentals may not reverse, leading to a potential shift in market confidence [1] - The combination of rate cuts and a downturn in fundamentals is seen as favorable for gold, while a shift to a rate cut and recovery scenario could limit gold's elasticity, with silver potentially benefiting more [1]