Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [2] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a temporary spike, briefly surpassing $4600 before slightly retreating, influenced by the market's reaction to the investigation news [2] - The dollar saw significant selling pressure as investors shifted towards gold, contributing to the upward movement in gold prices [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming macroeconomic data, particularly CPI and retail sales, are expected to influence market sentiment; a CPI exceeding expectations could reignite dollar strength, while a modest core CPI increase may not alter the current trend [2] - The mixed employment report from the previous week had initially supported the dollar but subsequently led to a reversal in market sentiment [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current upward trend in gold remains strong, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, making bearish positions illogical without clear reversal signals [3] - Momentum indicators suggest the market is overbought, but this alone is not a sufficient reason to sell [3] Group 4: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support for gold is identified between $4500 and $4550, a psychologically significant range due to its historical high in December [4] - If this support level is breached, the next potential support is around $4380, followed by a trendline support near $4350 [4] - The absence of clear resistance points suggests that the next targets for gold prices could be $4600 and $4700, with Fibonacci extension levels at $4625, $4687, and $4720 being critical for profit-taking strategies [4]

最近，鲍威尔作为美联储主席，竟然被卷入了一场刑事调查，其中涉及的金额高达25亿美元，牵动着整个华盛顿的神经。这起事件不仅反映了两位关键人物 之间复杂的关系，还揭示了美联储独立性与白宫意志之间日益紧张的博弈。 自鲍威尔于2018年上任以来，他便没能得到特朗普政府的宽待。特朗普在多个场合公开指责鲍威尔的行动迟缓，要求其加快降息步伐，以促进经济增长，对 即将到来的选举加以利好。在这种背景下，鲍威尔的独立性变得岌岌可危，尽管他的主要职责是保障美国经济的稳定，而非迎合短期的政治需求。 梳理一下事件的脉络，就能看出特朗普对鲍威尔施压的策略非常明确。他没有直接解职，而是利用司法手段来达到自己的目的。这一做法打破了美国三权分 立的基本原则，将总统的行政权与司法权结合在一起，对美联储进行干扰。这种操作毫无疑问是对美联储独立性的重大冲击，也是对美国政治体系的根本挑 战。鲍威尔在声明中也提到，这场调查实际上是对其坚持独立货币政策的惩罚，反映了他与白宫之间的深层矛盾。 美联储的独立性并非只是关乎美国国内的货币政策，它对全球市场的影响也不容小觑。当特朗普试图通过刑事调查来逼迫鲍威尔妥协、调整利率时，国际投 资者们的神经同样高度紧绷。他 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant rise in gold and silver futures prices due to the investigation of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Gold futures for February reached a peak of $4640 per ounce, while March silver futures hit $86 per ounce, both marking historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The price increase of gold is attributed to its status as a safe-haven asset amid the turmoil surrounding the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions [1] - The investigation into Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve in setting monetary policy, potentially shaking market confidence [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Context - Chairman Powell disclosed that the U.S. Department of Justice issued a subpoena related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee regarding a renovation project [1] - Powell characterized the criminal investigation as a pretext that undermines the Federal Reserve's independence in monetary policy [1]

北京时间周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.918附近，现货白银今日开盘于85.16美元/盎司， 目前交投于84.28美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于21046元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于21046元/千克附 近。今日基本面关注美国将公布12月未季调CPI年率。 周一(1月12日)美元指数下跌0.24%，收报98.896，现货白银收报85.16美元/盎司，上涨6.51%，由于特朗 普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查的不确定性加深，现货黄金一度突破4600美元关口，创下历史 新高，现货白银价格一度站上创纪录的86美元大关：现货黄金上涨1.97%，报4597.94美元/盎司，现货 铂金收涨3.03%，报2337.30美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨1.80%，至1851.00元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 1月12日白银ETF持仓16347.95吨，较前一交易日上涨39.47吨。 1月12日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)—空付多。 【要闻速递】 1、白宫称特朗普未指示司法部调查鲍威尔。美媒曝检察官在发起调查时未知会白宫和司法部本部，贝 森特"很不高兴"。 2、美媒：特朗普本周将就美联储主席一职面试贝莱德高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent attacks on the Federal Reserve by the Trump administration have reignited concerns about the central bank's independence, leading to a renewed "Sell America" trend in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.2%, marking its largest single-day decline since December 24 [2]. - The S&P 500 index experienced an intraday drop of 0.5% before recovering [2]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.19 basis points to 4.17%, while the 30-year yield increased by 1.62 basis points to 4.828% [2]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Allspring Global Investments noted that any developments questioning the Fed's independence would increase uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy, potentially leading to a stronger trend of reducing dollar holdings and increasing interest in traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1]. - Morgan Asset Management highlighted that expectations for more aggressive rate cuts could steepen the U.S. Treasury yield curve, putting more pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries [3]. - Invesco's David Chao remarked that the subpoena incident is another example of declining attractiveness of U.S. assets, indicating a more predatory stance from the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - Analysts express extreme uncertainty regarding the future of the Federal Reserve's operations, suggesting it is moving away from the familiar framework of the past decades [6]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence could have long-lasting effects on the U.S. economy, as noted by Jens Suedekum, who stated that Trump's attacks are undermining confidence in the Fed [6].

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached new highs, leading to significant increases in Hong Kong-listed gold stocks, with China Gold International rising over 6%, Shandong Gold up 3.3%, and Zijin Mining increasing by 3% [1] - Several gold companies, including Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and China Gold International, have reached historical highs in their stock prices [1] - Spot gold has surged to $4630 per ounce and spot silver has surpassed $86 per ounce, both setting new historical price records [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has raised its short-term outlook for precious metals due to increasing geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and uncertainties regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Analysts, including Max Layton, have adjusted the gold price target for the next 0-3 months from $4200 per ounce to $5000 per ounce, and the silver target from $62 per ounce to $100 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's initiation of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the central bank's independence and has led to market reactions including a sell-off of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, while some investors sought safety in gold [1][16]. Market Reactions - The market's response involved selling the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, with a more measured sell-off compared to previous events, indicating a belief that the situation may resolve itself [2][16]. - The dollar index fell to 98.92, marking its worst day in three weeks, while the euro remained steady at $1.1663 and sterling at $1.3463 [3][6][16]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve should be cautious about cutting rates, given the resilience of the economy, but political pressure could lead to more aggressive rate cuts than warranted [7][16]. - Fitch Ratings emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence as a key factor supporting the U.S. sovereign rating of AA+ [8][16]. Currency Movements - The Japanese yen fell to a one-year low of 158.285 per dollar, influenced by speculation regarding a potential snap election in Japan [9][10][16]. - Japan's Finance Minister expressed concerns over the yen's "one-sided depreciation," which may lead to further fiscal and monetary policy loosening [11][16]. - The Australian dollar remained flat at $0.6710, while the New Zealand dollar saw a slight increase to $0.5775, with varying economic sentiments reported in both countries [12][13][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have driven up crude oil prices, with the Iranian situation worsening and short - term sentiment premiums likely to continue [2]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence due to the investigation of Powell have led to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [2]. - Steel prices may first rise and then fall, showing a range - bound trend due to cost support and weakening demand [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate due to inventory pressure, supply uncertainties, and demand support [4]. - The supply - demand structure of coke may tighten, and the futures price will follow coking coal and fluctuate [5]. - Hog prices will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games, and attention should be paid to the slaughter volume and sow culling [5]. - Palm oil prices are supported by improved exports and lower production in January, but are suppressed by inventory accumulation [6]. - Spot prices of soybean meal have increased, but the upside is limited due to high inventory levels, and the 05 contract is in a shock - consolidation phase [6]. - Tightening of the capital market is negative for the bond market, and the volatility of treasury bonds has increased [7]. - Silver prices have risen due to risk - aversion and monetary easing expectations, but the upward momentum needs attention [7]. - PX is in an adjustment phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Natural rubber prices will show a wide - range fluctuation [9]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [10]. - Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - PVC prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [12]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short term [13]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - In December 2025, Iran's daily crude oil export volume decreased by 100,000 barrels, and daily production decreased from nearly 4 million barrels in September to 3.24 million barrels in December due to US sanctions. Venezuela's daily crude oil supply decreased by 70,000 barrels in December 2025, and the impact is expected to intensify in January 2026 [2]. Gold - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - On January 12, domestic steel prices rose slightly. The price of billets in Tangshan increased by 10 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar increased by 5 yuan to 3342 yuan/ton. High costs support steel prices, but weak demand may limit the upward trend [4]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 162.7526 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.0437 million tons. The daily port clearance volume decreased by 1.94 tons to 3.2327 million tons, and the number of ships in port increased by 11 to 116 [4]. Coke - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.69%, an increase of 0.97%. Daily coke production was 635,700 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. Coke inventory decreased by 55,300 tons to 860,700 tons, and coking coal inventory increased by 191,800 tons to 10.7168 million tons [5]. Hog - On January 12, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.83 yuan/kg, a 0.8% decrease from last Friday. Egg prices increased by 0.8% to 7.61 yuan/kg. Hog prices showed mixed trends, and the price will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games [5]. Palm Oil - In December, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons. Production decreased by 5.46% to 1.8298 million tons, consumption decreased by 14.01% to 319,700 tons, and exports increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons. The January export situation has improved [6]. Soybean Meal - In the second week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 7.1312 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,700 tons (0.40%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.0856 million tons (17.96%). The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 126,200 tons (10.78%) and a year - on - year increase of 439,400 tons (72.68%) [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased. The overnight rate increased by 4.4BP to 1.316%, the 7 - day rate increased by 1.2BP to 1.473%, the 14 - day rate increased by 0.2BP to 1.489%, and the 1 - month rate decreased by 0.1BP to 1.556% [7]. Silver - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and a rise in silver prices [7]. PTA - The domestic PX load was 90.9% (+0.3%), and the Asian PX load was 81.3% (+0.4%). Some domestic factories increased short - process production, and some overseas devices restarted. PX supply remains high in January [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material latex was 57 baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton. In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased by 13.4% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, US tire imports increased by 5.4% year - on - year [9]. Aluminum - On January 12, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan was 24,390 yuan/ton, a single - day increase of 290 yuan/ton. The high price and high basis have led to strong selling intentions of holders, but weak downstream purchasing [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,239 yuan/ton. Weekly production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. Factory inventory increased by 11.67% to 1.5727 million tons. The float glass operating rate decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.03%, and the average price increased by 7 yuan to 1,083 yuan/ton. Glass inventory decreased by 2.37% to 55.518 million weight boxes [11]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 PVC was 4,620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, an increase of 1.04%. Social inventory increased by 3.48% to 1.1141 million tons. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC producers was - 634 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based producers was - 192 yuan/ton [12]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The 500,000 - ton/year methanol device of Jiuyuan Chemical is expected to end maintenance this week. Downstream capacity utilization decreased by 0.49% to 73.54%. Port inventory increased by 40,800 tons to 1.5372 million tons, and production enterprise inventory increased by 25,100 tons to 447,700 tons [13].

来源：环球市场播报 联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）上周日证实，司法部已向联储发出传票，并威胁对他本人提起刑事诉 讼。这一进展显示，川普政府与拥有独立决策权的央行之间的紧张关系正在进一步升级。 受鲍威尔遭刑事调查消息影响，美股周一开盘一度遭遇重挫，道琼斯工业平均指数盘中一度暴跌近500 点。然而，随着交易日的推进，投资者逐渐消化了这一政治冲击。截至美东时间下午2点35分，主要股 指已从盘中低点强势反弹。 标准普尔500指数不仅收复失地，还上涨0.2%并在盘中创下历史新高。纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.5%，而 道指则回升至持平线附近。分析人士指出，沃尔玛（Walmart）及部分科技股的强劲表现是推动股指反 弹的关键力量。 据鲍威尔透露，传票与他去年6月在参议院银行委员会就联储大楼翻新工程所做的证词有关。该项目涉 及两座办公大楼，耗资约25亿美元，川普曾公开批评其"过于铺张"。 上周日在联储官方X账号上发布的视频讲话中，鲍威尔一改往日的克制与低调，他指责川普政府威胁对 他进行刑事指控纯属"借口"，其真实目的是破坏联储在制定利率时的独立性。 "面临刑事指控的威胁，是因为联储根据对公众最有利的评估来设定利率， ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential criminal investigation of Powell has led to a significant rise in precious metals, with both gold and silver reaching historical highs, driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and uncertainty in monetary policy [1] Group 1: Impact of Powell's Investigation - Powell's investigation is unprecedented and threatens the traditional independence of the Federal Reserve, which could undermine confidence in the dollar and indirectly boost precious metal prices [1] - The investigation creates decision-making pressure for Powell, as lowering interest rates may confirm political pressure, while maintaining high rates could escalate the investigation [1] - The upcoming end of Powell's term in May and the selection of a new chair could influence the future independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Expectations of monetary easing are expected to lower U.S. Treasury yields and market interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and increasing its investment demand [2] - The weakening of the dollar due to reduced confidence and the potential for inflation driven by loose monetary policy could further enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [2] - Regardless of who becomes the next Federal Reserve chair, the market anticipates multiple rate cuts and balance sheet expansion to ensure liquidity, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts by 2026 unless economic data improves significantly [2] Group 3: Long-term Considerations for Precious Metals - The erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence is linked to broader issues such as U.S. debt sustainability and increasing political divisions, suggesting a strong and lasting support for precious metal prices [3] - Key signals to monitor include the new Federal Reserve chair's stance, the progress of the 2026 midterm elections, and policy statements from Federal Reserve meetings [3] - A potential decline in the "political premium" for precious metals could occur if the investigation concludes without substantial evidence, or if the new chair signals a commitment to policy independence [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Rapid price increases may lead to overbought conditions, prompting either side to exit positions, which could result in significant price adjustments [4]