Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a fluctuating recovery pattern last week, with a divergence in index performance, characterized by a stronger Shanghai market compared to Shenzhen [7] - Under the expectation of "expanding domestic demand" policies and high dividend defensive attributes, consumption and non-bank financial sectors became the leading gainers, while previously active AI applications and hardware saw a pullback [7] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.76 trillion yuan, indicating a decline in market activity [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators - November consumption showed a significant slowdown due to high base effects and policy exhaustion, while fixed asset investment continued to decline, and the real estate market remained sluggish [7] - External demand was noted as a rare bright spot, but there are expectations for monetary stimulus and fiscal pre-positioning to improve domestic economic conditions in early next year [7] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a moderate recovery in market risk appetite, while the U.S. non-farm employment rate is expected to rise, and CPI is projected to be below market expectations [8] - Despite these indicators, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take further directional actions in the short term, with expectations that it will not lower interest rates in January [8] Group 4: Industry Focus - The focus is shifting towards technology and manufacturing sectors, with a potential bottoming out of the recent global tech pullback [9] - Key factors for the future strength of the tech sector include improvements in large model capabilities and advancements in AI commercialization [9] - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from fiscal and monetary easing, with a focus on export-oriented manufacturing and real estate chains related to emerging markets [9]

21 December 2025 | 7:09PM HKT Economics Research China: Three things in China Three quick highlights from China: n November activity data weak: China's domestic activity stayed sluggish, with industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment (FAI) all missing expectations. Retail sales growth dropped to 1.3% yoy—the lowest since the Covid pandemic—due to limited consumer goods trade-in subsidies and a payback from earlier online sales festivals. Single-month FAI continued to post double-digit ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market and its response to macroeconomic conditions, particularly influenced by U.S. economic data and monetary policy expectations [1][2][4][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Indicators**: Weak U.S. non-farm data and rising unemployment (4.6%) alongside a decrease in core CPI growth (2.6%) strengthen expectations for potential Fed rate cuts in the coming year [2][4]. 2. **Domestic Economic Conditions**: November economic data in China shows a decline in consumption and investment, with retail sales growth at a three-year low of 1.3%. However, achieving a 5% GDP growth target for the year remains feasible [4][14]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: The A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound towards the end of the year and early next year, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips to capitalize on the upcoming spring market [1][5]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on three key areas for investment: - **Technology**: Including commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, semiconductors, and robotics, which are supported by policy and active funding [5]. - **Domestic Demand Expansion**: Opportunities in sectors like retail, food and beverage, and home appliances due to policies promoting domestic consumption [5][12]. - **Cyclical Sectors**: With expectations of PPI turning positive, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and renewable energy are highlighted [5]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market, particularly long-term bonds, remains attractive with expected yields between 1.6% and 1.9%, with current yields above the central tendency of 1.75% [8]. 2. **Risk Appetite**: Changes in risk appetite will influence equity market performance, with a balanced approach recommended between growth and value stocks [9]. 3. **Electronic Communication Sector**: The sector is poised for growth due to favorable liquidity conditions, with a focus on advanced semiconductor processes and packaging [10]. 4. **Storage Device Opportunities**: Companies in the storage device sector are expected to benefit from government support and fiscal subsidies, with specific recommendations for firms like Zhongwei and Huazhong [11]. 5. **Consumer Sector Recovery**: The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in tourism and duty-free industries, with specific brands identified as having strong growth potential [13]. 6. **Macroeconomic Environment**: The overall macroeconomic environment is weak, but there is optimism for policy measures that could stimulate the market, particularly as the new year approaches [14][15]. Conclusion - The A-share market is navigating through a period of uncertainty influenced by both domestic and international factors. Strategic investments in technology, domestic demand, and cyclical sectors are recommended, while monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy changes will be crucial for future market performance [1][5][14].

近期消费系列重要政策解读专题电话会议 20251221 摘要 扩大内需是应对挑战的关键，措施包括提高中等收入群体就业、社保和 收入，以及完善职业技能教育体系。供给端则注重质量与效率，创新消 费业态与模式，服务消费成为新增长点。 消费行业负贝塔效应减弱，CPI 数据转正，餐饮和社会零售数据改善。 政策预期商品消费向服务消费倾斜，市场期待业绩估值双重弹性，2026 年或是业绩兑现窗口期。 海南自贸港封关遵循一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由原则。免税商品种 类大幅增加，离岛免税新政包括即购即提、新增国产品类及扩展适用人 群，利好中免公司。 中免公司销售数据持续改善，12 月封关首日销售额同比增长超 90%， 得益于旅游宣传和消费券发放。尽管毛利率较低，但连续增长的数据对 业绩有积极作用，值得关注。 家电板块受益于刺激消费政策，包括延续国补和以旧换新，并可能扩大 规模。政策推动绿色智能家电转型，提升能效标准，优化产业环境，利 好美的集团、海尔智家等企业。 Q&A 康养经济与服务消费成为经济新增长点，企业通过 IP 打造附加值，跨行 业融合。泰迪威尼授权业务表现出色，今年实收已达 10 亿元，预计明 年继续保持增长。 生猪 ...

宏观周周谈：扩内需的必要性、时机与政策思路 20251221 如何看待扩大内需的必要性、时机和思路？ 扩大内需是否为政策目标是关键。如果它是目标，政策将倾斜以实现这一结果。 从十三五到十四五，再到十五规划，我们可以看到中国经济政策的演变。在十 三五期间，全球进入康波萧条期，中国避免了汇率升值和独立于全球的资产泡 沫，通过防风险措施避免了日本化。十四五期间，中国的目标是推升全要素生 产率，防止拉美化，并通过构建国内国际双循环来解决需求问题。国内循环侧 重于提高全要素生产率，而国际循环则通过一带一路对冲外需不足。尽管这导 致了一定程度的通缩，但也带来了资源自主可控和优化初次分配等正面影响。 在十五期间，中国需要实现两个主要目标：一是制造份额重新回到 30%以上， 以维持第一大经济体应有的制造水平；二是达到中等发达国家收入水平，这不 仅需要人均 GNI 达到一定门槛，还需要科技含量和服务占比达到相应指标。因 全球宏观形势类似百年前，共同富裕成趋势，康波周期处于萧条期，需 扭转社会结构，加强二次分配，并配合一次分配，扩大内需，提高收入 分配改革力度。 中国扩大内需的大动作预计在 2026 下半年至 2027 上半年， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to stabilize and recover in risk appetite, with a spring rally anticipated in 2026 as the overseas environment becomes more stable and liquidity expectations are clarified [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages indicate that a classic "cross-year-spring" rally is brewing, with significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in broad-based ETFs, providing stable incremental capital to the market [1][10][11]. - The spring market is characterized by a favorable liquidity environment, with historical patterns suggesting a high probability of a rebound before the Spring Festival [7][10]. - The market is currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and Japanese central bank actions, but is expected to resonate upward with global markets [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of finding buying points and waiting for opportunities, rather than chasing prices, as the market adjustment appears to be sufficient [2][12]. - Focus areas for investment include sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and tourism, as well as cyclical recovery sectors [4][11][13]. - The spring rally is seen as an opportunity to invest in high-growth sectors, with recommendations to pay attention to industries like industrial metals, non-bank financials, and tourism-related services [11][14]. Group 3: Currency and Asset Allocation - Investors are encouraged to adapt to a continuously appreciating RMB environment, with certain industries expected to benefit from improved profit margins due to currency appreciation [3]. - Approximately 19% of industries may see profit margin improvements due to the RMB's appreciation, which could attract investor attention [3].

Core Insights - The A-share market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout as 2026 approaches, with expectations of policy benefits being released earlier than usual, creating structural opportunities in alignment with policy direction and industry prosperity [1] Group 1: Main Themes - Main Theme 1: The unprecedented global changes are accelerating, shifting the underlying logic of the domestic economy towards new productive forces, with key areas of focus including artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace, all highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - Main Theme 2: The gradual implementation of anti-involution policies, combined with an optimized supply-demand structure and expectations of price recovery, is leading to a clear path for profit recovery in the manufacturing and resource sectors [1] Group 2: Auxiliary Themes - Auxiliary Theme 1: Under the policy direction of expanding domestic demand, the consumer sector is entering a favorable layout window [1] - Auxiliary Theme 2: The trend of going global is expected to further open up profit space for enterprises [1]

（文章来源：第一财经） 开源证券指出，牛市仍大有可为。建议提前布局春季躁动，但在确认有效创新高前同样需要注意节奏。 整体布局思维仍建议围绕科技+PPI为主，但交易上可关注新的边际变化，其一为扩大内需的政策表述 不断强化下商贸、社服等消费出现局部热度，但整体的消费大beta或仍依赖数据的持续改善。其二为岁 末年初跨年强主题的机会，可重视商业航天与卫星产业链。 ...

Group 1 - Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of moral education for minors as a strategic foundational task, aiming to create a favorable social environment for their healthy growth [1] - The article highlights the need for a collective effort to support the healthy development of minors [1] - Xi Jinping's call to expand domestic demand is framed as a strategic move for economic growth [1] Group 2 - The State Council issued the "Regulations on Promoting National Reading" to enhance reading culture [1] - The Central Military Commission and the State Council released guidelines on military registration [1] - A joint announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments introduced rules for pricing behavior on internet platforms [1]

Core Viewpoint - Consumption is a crucial component of domestic demand and is essential for consolidating and enhancing the positive trend of economic recovery in China. The government emphasizes the need to boost consumption as a key focus for economic work in the coming year [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Consumption plays a decisive role in the national economic cycle, which includes production, distribution, exchange, and consumption. The current positive trend in China's economy underscores the foundational role of consumption [1] - The central economic work conference has identified "deeply implementing special actions to boost consumption" as a key part of maintaining domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, signaling the importance of consumption in the economic cycle [1] Group 2: Market Potential - China's retail sales of consumer goods are projected to increase from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest consumer market [2] - The country possesses a complete industrial system and strong production capacity, which can effectively meet consumer demand and respond to market changes, thereby enhancing the quality of supply [2] Group 3: Consumption Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior from basic needs to quality-of-life and experiential consumption, driven by digital technology advancements such as mobile payments and e-commerce [3] - The central economic work conference has outlined eight key tasks for the coming year, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to boost consumption [3] Group 4: Income and Consumption Capacity - Increasing residents' disposable income is fundamental to boosting consumption. Policies should aim to enhance income growth in line with economic growth and strengthen the social security system to reduce financial burdens on households [4] Group 5: Supply-Side Strategies - Expanding the supply of quality goods and services is crucial for stimulating consumer potential. The focus should be on enhancing the adaptability of supply to meet consumer demand and promoting high-quality service consumption [5] Group 6: Consumer Environment - A favorable consumption environment is essential for encouraging consumer spending. Efforts should be made to eliminate market barriers, unify market regulations, and enhance consumer protection to ensure a safe and enjoyable shopping experience [6]