截至2025年4月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.53，较上月47.51略有下降，市场情绪出现一定波动，整体风险 评分仍处于中等偏低风险区间。 沪深300估值较上月有所下降（本月38.93，上月45.01），显示出市场整体估值水平有所回落。从行业分布 来看，部分前期估值较高的行业如电子、计算机等，估值有所调整，而部分防御性板块或低估值板块的估 值相对稳定。 行业间估值分化有所减小。 目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、国防军工、计算机 的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、纺织服装、公共事业、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10% 分位数。 市场整体估值的调整，有超预期的关税冲击的影响，也反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利 预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下降（本月48.00，上月56.00）。分析师认为，政策层面持续发力，财政政策和 货币政策协同配合，为经济复苏提供了有力支持。财政方面，当月地方基建支出有所改善，土地市场的恢 复虽不均衡，但政府债发行提速，继续支撑政府性基金支出。预计二季度财政仍将保持积极。但全球经济 复苏的 ...

印度央行：国内经济活动正处于复苏阶段，预计将保持韧性。 ...

为什么历经风雨也不一定做好？因为老手总是回头看过去，总是拿着过去的经验与现在做对比，却忘了金融市场唯一不变的就是变。一般性的工作，可以 靠经验去线性外推，但投资是人与人之间心理的博弈，它的思维方式不是线性的，而是逆人性的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250417— 股市8连阳，债市金钟罩（-股市小幅上涨-服务业发布会预告-收储传闻+资金面均衡宽松=中上)】 今日股市小幅上涨，下周一将召开服务业相关发布会，叠加收储传闻，利率震荡上行。 隔夜鲍威尔表态偏鹰派，海外风险资产大跌。早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率小幅低开在1.635%后震荡。国新办将于下周一举行发布会介绍服务业扩大 开放有关情况，叠加传中国启动规模超万亿的地产收储专项基金，股市小幅上涨，10Y国债利率震荡上至1.65%。 -------------------------- 不知真假的段子称，美联储鲍师傅被川大爷戏称为"pussy(猫咪)"，鲍师傅直接回怼："Go fuck yourself"。 不过昨晚鲍师傅真实叹息：这通胀心魔难除，经济经脉又需调理，如何是好？ 咱YM笑答：还是缺乏修炼，且看本宫同时运转经济复苏大法、汇率凌波微步、净息差太极拳 ...

4月16日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，经初步核算，一季度国内生产总值(GDP)318758亿元，按不变 价格计算，同比增长5.4%。国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办新闻发布会上表示，这一增速在全球主 要经济体中名列前茅，经济开局良好。相关指标显示，一季度经济运行不仅实现了量的增长，也实现了 质的提升。受访专家认为，内需和创新协同驱动，经济呈现较强复苏态势。 从主要经济指标看，一季度生产需求指标加快回升。全部工业增加值同比增长6.3%，比去年全年回升 0.6个百分点；服务业增加值增长5.3%，回升0.3个百分点；固定资产投资增长4.2%，比去年全年回升1 个百分点；社会消费品零售总额增长4.6%，回升1.1个百分点。中信证券首席经济学家明明对证券时报 记者表示，一季度GDP增速超预期，且在高基数背景下，比上年四季度增长1.2%，这意味着，在一系 列政策前置发力下，内需和创新协同驱动，经济呈现较强复苏态势。 质的方面，一季度，装备制造业增加值同比增长10.9%，比上年全年加快3.2个百分点；高技术制造业增 加值增长9.7%，加快0.8个百分点。新能源汽车、3D打印设备、工业机器人产品产量同比分别增长 45.4%、4 ...

Core Views - The recent collective rise of the A-share market indices is attributed to the temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, which has improved global market sentiment [2][8] - The market has recovered above 3200 points, indicating a potential end to the recent downward trend driven by emotional short-term selling [2][9] - Despite the positive sentiment, concerns remain regarding the substantial impact of tariffs and the overall market fundamentals, as corporate earnings have not yet fully improved [2][9] Market Overview - On Thursday, the A-share market indices continued to rebound, supported by several favorable factors including state intervention, a wave of stock buybacks by listed companies, and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][5] - The trading volume reached 16,095 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,223.64 points, up 1.16%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.25% [5] - The precious metals sector saw significant activity, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global tariff tensions [6] Sector Performance - The precious metals and consumer sectors, including dairy, food and beverage, and retail, showed strong performance, indicating a shift towards domestic consumption as a key driver for economic recovery in 2025 [7][8] - The recent announcement by the State Taxation Administration to promote "immediate refund" services for overseas travelers has boosted the performance of duty-free and tax refund concept stocks [6][7] Future Market Outlook - Continued attention is required on trade negotiations, as successful outcomes could lead to a rebound in industries with strong export recovery expectations [9] - The report anticipates increased fiscal and monetary policy support in response to the economic goals set during the Two Sessions, which is expected to bolster market sentiment in the medium term [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant fluctuations in the A-share market this week, the stock prices of liquor companies remained stable, with beer stocks showing stronger rebound momentum compared to liquor stocks [1] Industry Summary - During the Spring Sugar Conference, feedback from liquor companies and distributors indicated an optimistic expectation for the liquor industry to emerge from its bottom this year, with nearly two-thirds of liquor companies experiencing stock price rebounds [1][2] - The three major yellow wine companies, Kuaijishan, Jinfeng Wine Industry, and Guyue Longshan, saw significant stock price increases of 15.42%, 5.31%, and 4.01% respectively, ranking among the top five in the brewing industry for weekly gains [1][2] - The beer sector also performed well, with Yanjing Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Huichuan Beer all seeing weekly gains exceeding 3%, indicating a strong start in April [1][2] - However, the liquor sector's performance was relatively weak, with only Shanxi Fenjiu showing an increase among first-tier liquor brands, while Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai experienced stock price declines [1] Company Summary - Water井坊's stock performance was weak this week, despite a projected net profit growth of approximately 6% for 2024, indicating potential development concerns due to its mid-range strategy [3][4] - The low market scale of the mid-range liquor segment, estimated at 147.5 billion yuan in 2023, has negatively impacted Water井坊's gross margin performance, which decreased to 82.94% in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to previous years [4] - Water井坊 has announced a strategic shift by launching a high-end product line "Diyifang" during the Spring Sugar Conference, aiming to enhance brand positioning and market operations [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed down collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 1%. The four stock - index futures also closed down collectively, with IF having the largest decline. The market was affected by overseas tariff policy disturbances, and risk appetite declined overall. Market trading activity further shrank compared to last week, and the trading volume once fell below the trillion - yuan level on April 2nd. - Overseas, the US announced a 10% benchmark tariff on all trading partners effective April 5th, and higher reciprocal tariffs on certain trading partners effective April 9th. Domestically, in March, the three major domestic PMI indices continued to rise, indicating that domestic economic activities maintained expansion and the economic recovery trend remained unchanged. - Overall, with the support of stable - growth policies, the economic fundamentals showed a recovery trend. However, due to overseas disturbances and the annual report disclosure period of listed companies, market risk appetite declined, and A - shares consolidated with shrinking volume. In the case of insufficient trading volume, stock indices may still be revised downward, and small - and medium - cap stocks are expected to be more affected due to their weaker risk - resistance ability. The strategy suggests short - selling on rallies with a light position [6][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾 - Futures: IF2506 fell 1.21% for the week, IH2506 fell 0.73%, IC2506 fell 0.95%, and IM2506 fell 0.77%. - Spot: The CSI 300 fell 1.37%, the SSE 50 fell 0.65%, the CSI 500 fell 1.19%, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.04% [10]. 3.2消息面概览 - The March PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; and the composite PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, which was a neutral impact. - Four major banks announced that the Ministry of Finance would subscribe for new shares in cash, with a total investment of 500 billion yuan, indicating that the issuance of special treasury bonds to replenish the capital of large - scale banks was imminent, which was a neutral - to - positive impact. - The US President signed executive orders on "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on some, and also announced a 25% tariff on imported cars effective April 3rd, which was a negative impact [13]. 3.3周度市场数据 - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.28%, the STAR 50 fell 1.11%, the SME 100 fell 2.93%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.95% [16]. - **External Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.61%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.58%, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.46%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 6.42% [17]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors fell. The automobile, power equipment, and household appliance sectors fell significantly, while the public utilities sector rose against the trend. All industry sectors had net outflows of main funds, with a large net outflow from the electronics sector. SHIBOR interest rates declined, indicating relatively loose liquidity. This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 1.958 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted - share unlockings was 22.683 billion yuan, and northbound funds had a total trading volume of 467.228 billion yuan. The basis of the IF main contract strengthened slightly, the basis of the IH main contract weakened oscillatingly, the basis of the IC main contract strengthened, and the basis of the IM main contract strengthened oscillatingly [21][25][29][30]. 3.4行情展望与策略 - The economic fundamentals are in a recovery trend under the support of stable - growth policies. However, due to overseas disturbances and the annual report disclosure period, market risk appetite has declined, and A - shares are consolidating with shrinking volume. In the case of insufficient trading volume, stock indices may still be revised downward, and small - and medium - cap stocks are expected to be more affected. The strategy suggests short - selling on rallies with a light position [88].

当地时间 3 月 31 日，据俄罗斯"消息报"援引俄直接投资基金总裁德米特里耶夫的话说，俄美已经启动 有关俄罗斯稀土金属项目的讨论。德米特里耶夫表示，美国企业对潜在的合作协议已表现出兴趣，预计 俄美代表将于四月中旬在沙特首都利雅得举行新一轮会谈。报道称，俄美双方重启对话后不仅讨论政治 议题，还涉及经济合作等领域。 重点品种： 股指、原油、黄金 首席点评： 政策逐步落地，宏观氛围向好 按照党中央和国务院决策部署， 2025 年，财政部将发行首批特别国债 5000 亿元，积极支持中国银行、 中国建设银行、交通银行、中国邮政储蓄银行补充核心一级资本。此次资本补充工作将按照市场化、法 治化原则稳妥推进。 原油： sc 夜盘下跌 0.68% 。在特朗普对委内瑞拉原油买家加征关税的消息宣布后，全球最大的综合型 炼油厂印度信实工业公司将停止从委内瑞拉进口原油。国际能源署表示，随着经济复苏后，世界石油需 求增长放缓，以及航空和石化原料需求导致的石油消费，石油在全球能源需求中的份额在 2024 年首次 降至 30% 以下。特朗普最新宣布从下周起对进口汽车和轻型卡车征收 25% 关税对石油需求的影响。人 们认为，这可能会推高汽车 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a stable configuration value for the liquor sector, indicating a defensive characteristic despite being in a bottoming phase [1][11]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downtrend in market sentiment, similar to the period from late 2014 to 2015, with a slight decline in overall sales due to weak demand [1][10]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by approximately 50 yuan week-on-week, with the original box price falling below 2200 yuan, indicating a soft demand in the off-season [1][10]. - The report anticipates that the price of Feitian Moutai will fluctuate between 2100 and 2200 yuan before the upcoming peak seasons of Mid-Autumn and National Day, while monitoring the recovery of business demand [1][11]. - Despite the price drop, market sentiment towards the liquor sector remains stable, with expectations for a smooth performance in Q1 2025 for most liquor companies [1][11]. - The report highlights potential offensive opportunities in the liquor sector due to ongoing policy implementations that may bolster economic recovery expectations [2][11]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is in a downtrend but shows signs of stabilization, with a focus on high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from resilient consumer demand [2][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end liquor with solid pricing and market positioning, as well as cyclical stocks with potential for growth [2][11]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is entering a peak season, with an upward turning point in market sentiment. The report expresses optimism for improved performance in 2025, particularly for companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage [3][12]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive due to the release of new channels and product categories, with companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi expected to perform well [3][13]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at a low point, with strong growth in customized meal preparation services benefiting from the trend towards standardized dishes in chain restaurants [3][4][13].

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for March show a significant improvement, with EPMI rising 10.6 points to 59.6, marking a seasonal high, and BCI increasing 2 points to 54.8, the highest since June 2023, indicating a potential economic recovery starting from late 2024 [1][5][9]. Economic Indicators - The EPMI data for March indicates a strong upward trend, reaching 59.6, which is the second-highest level for March since 2019, suggesting improved economic conditions [4][5]. - The BCI also reflects a positive economic rhythm, with projections indicating initial recovery in late 2024, followed by a second dip in December and continued improvement in early 2025 [5][9]. Corporate Revenue and Profitability - The improvement in economic sentiment is expected to positively impact corporate revenues, as indicated by the rise in the sales expectation index for March. However, profitability is influenced by both volume and pricing, with a noted decline in the profit expectation index due to falling intermediate goods prices [3][6]. Price Trends - The consumer price forward index continues to rise, reaching a new high since the rebound began, indicating an improving trend in consumer prices. In contrast, the intermediate goods price index has not shown clear signs of recovery, with a decline observed in March after a brief rebound in February [6][7]. Inventory and Financing Environment - Inventory indicators have shown an upward trend, reflecting both proactive and reactive inventory adjustments by industrial enterprises. The BCI inventory forward index aligns with economic sentiment, primarily indicating proactive inventory replenishment [2][7]. - The financing environment index saw significant improvement in March, attributed to a more accommodative monetary policy and increased credit support for private and small enterprises [7][8]. Investment Sentiment - There are concerns regarding investment willingness, as the investment and hiring forward indices showed a decline in March, potentially linked to rising trade protectionism and external uncertainties, such as the recent tariff increases by the U.S. on Chinese products [8][9].