Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between the US and the EU have encountered significant setbacks, with the EU potentially seeking to extend the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" and abandoning hopes for a comprehensive trade agreement before the deadline [5][6]. Group 1: US-EU Trade Negotiations - The EU has given up on reaching a comprehensive trade agreement before the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" ends on September 9, and it is uncertain if a lighter principle agreement can be achieved [5][6]. - Internal divisions within the EU regarding trade cooperation with the US are hindering progress, with countries like Germany and Italy favoring a swift agreement, while France, Spain, and Denmark express concerns over necessary concessions [5]. - The EU's trade with the US is projected to reach €1.7 trillion (approximately $2 trillion) in 2024, with daily trade averaging €4.6 billion [5]. Group 2: US-Japan Trade Relations - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan will not easily compromise in trade negotiations, indicating that discussions are challenging and time-consuming [2][8]. - Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 30% to 35% on Japan if an agreement is not reached, and Japan is preparing for various scenarios in response [8][9]. - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari previously visited the US for negotiations but returned without progress, leading to increased pressure from Trump for higher tariffs [9]. Group 3: US Tariff Plans - Trump plans to send letters to various countries notifying them of the tariffs they will be required to pay, with a potential implementation date of August 1 [3][10]. - The US has already announced a 10% basic tariff on most countries and punitive tariffs of up to 50% on specific goods, with some implementations delayed to allow for negotiations [11]. - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that notifications will be sent to 100 countries with minimal trade relations, warning of higher tariffs if negotiations do not progress [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is setting new deadlines for "reciprocal tariffs," with tariffs set to take effect on August 1, and the President is currently determining the tariff rates and agreements [1][3] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed that the President will send letters to trade partners regarding the planned tariffs, with a potential extension of negotiations for three weeks if no agreement is reached [1][3] - The market has not fully absorbed the potential risks associated with the tariffs, with predictions that if tariffs remain unchanged, economic growth could decline by 1.5% [1][5] Group 2 - The Trump administration is focusing negotiations on 18 major trading partners, with several important agreements nearing completion despite delays from counterparts [4] - The market is facing uncertainty as the deadline approaches, with expectations that the suspension of retaliatory tariffs will either be extended or a base rate of 10% will be implemented [5][6] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy may have a lagging effect, as importers are currently absorbing costs by compressing profit margins rather than passing them on to consumers [5][6] Group 3 - International trade negotiations are complex, with India adopting a tougher stance and threatening retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods, while South Korea seeks to extend negotiation deadlines [6] - The European Union is negotiating a framework trade agreement with the U.S., with high tariffs on basic goods, automobiles, and steel potentially impacting economic growth in Europe [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and various countries, particularly focusing on India's decision to impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. despite ongoing negotiations [2][4][11]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Global Reactions - The so-called "90-day tariff grace period" is nearing its end, with only Vietnam and the UK reaching agreements with the U.S. [2] - The U.S. has a significant trade deficit with other countries, which is seen as normal due to its status as the world's largest consumer nation [7][9]. - Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs has drawn widespread criticism globally, as many believe it is an ineffective solution to the trade deficit issue [5][9]. Group 2: India’s Response to U.S. Tariffs - India announced its intention to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. before finalizing trade agreements, indicating a strong stance against U.S. pressure [4][15]. - The trade agreement between the U.S. and India had nearly reached consensus, but disagreements over agricultural and dairy market access led to a breakdown in negotiations [13][19]. - India's decision to retaliate is surprising to many, as it reflects a willingness to stand firm against U.S. demands, particularly in sensitive sectors like agriculture [15][17]. Group 3: Factors Behind India's Stance - India's agricultural and dairy sectors are crucial for its farmers, making concessions in these areas politically risky for Prime Minister Modi [19]. - The influence of China's strong response to U.S. tariffs has emboldened India to adopt a more assertive position [21]. - India holds significant leverage over the U.S. due to its status as a major supplier of generic drugs and its robust IT industry, which contributes to its confidence in facing U.S. retaliation [21][23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intensifying battle between bulls and bears in the gold market, highlighting the return of short sellers and the implications of reduced tariff deadlines on gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is an increase in short selling pressure on gold, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1] - The deadline for equal tariffs has been reduced, which may influence market expectations and trading strategies related to gold [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article raises questions about the future performance of gold in light of current market conditions and trader behaviors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing tension ahead of the US tariff negotiations deadline on July 9, but there is no panic, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach [3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current trading price of spot silver is $36.57 per ounce, with a daily high of $37.21 and a low of $36.34 [1]. - The dollar index is trading around 97.37 [1]. - The market is showing some nervousness regarding the upcoming tariff announcements, but the reaction appears more relaxed compared to previous situations [3]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations - The Trump administration has only signed agreements with the UK and Vietnam since announcing comprehensive tariffs, with limited agreements reached with major Asian countries [3]. - There are indications that the new deadline for tariffs may be flexible, especially for major trading partners [3]. - The final decision regarding tariffs will ultimately depend on President Trump [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver is currently pausing its upward trend but still shows an upward inclination, forming a double bottom chart pattern [4]. - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.00 and $38.00, with a potential drop below $36.00 leading to further declines [5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates bullish momentum, suggesting that the path of least resistance is upward [5].

对等关税扰动市场，黄金逼近3300关口！亚盘快速杀跌，资金意欲何为？立即观看超V推荐官Jason的分 析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

关税最新消息。 7月7日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。 法新社记者提问，金砖国家峰会将于今天闭幕。昨天，美国总统特朗普批评金砖国家"推行反美政策"，并威胁对其成员国加征10%的新关税。请问中方对 此有何评论？ 毛宁表示，金砖机制是新兴市场和发展中国家合作的重要平台，倡导开放包容、合作共赢，不搞阵营对抗、不针对任何国家。 "关于加征关税，中方已经多次阐明了立场——贸易战、关税战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。"毛宁说。 路透社记者追问，特朗普称要对金砖国家加征10%关税。请问中方是否就此与美方进行过沟通？中国是否已向美方澄清相关立场及可能产生的影响？如果 美国最终决定对中国加征这一额外关税，中方将采取何种应对措施？ 毛宁表示，刚刚已经介绍了我们对金砖机制的看法。金砖机制是国际上的积极力量，金砖合作是开放包容的，不针对任何国家。 至于关税，我们一贯反对搞关税战、贸易战，反对以关税作为胁迫施压的工具。"肆意地加征关税，不符合任何一方的利益。"毛宁说。 值得一提的是，特朗普当地时间6日在社交媒体发文说，美国政府将于当地时间7日中午12时起公布与贸易伙伴的关税信函或关税协议。特朗普此前表示， 拟于8月1日起对部分国家的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments regarding tariffs and trade negotiations involving the United States and other countries, particularly in the context of the BRICS nations and the ongoing trade talks with Japan and the European Union. Group 1: Tariff Developments - The Chinese government has reiterated its stance against trade wars and tariff battles, emphasizing that there are no winners in such conflicts and that protectionism is not a viable solution [3][4]. - U.S. President Trump has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on BRICS nations, which China views as an aggressive move that does not align with the principles of cooperation and mutual benefit [2][3]. - The U.S. is expected to announce new tariffs on certain countries, with a maximum rate potentially reaching 70% starting August 1 [4][7]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. has been engaged in trade negotiations with multiple countries, but progress has been slower than anticipated [5]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the deadline for negotiations might be extended, suggesting that countries genuinely negotiating could see their deadlines pushed back [7][9]. - Japan's Prime Minister has stated that Japan will not easily compromise in trade talks with the U.S., highlighting the ongoing stalemate in negotiations [11]. Group 3: EU-U.S. Trade Relations - The article notes significant divisions within the EU regarding trade negotiations with the U.S., with some countries pushing for quick agreements while others express concerns about potential concessions [13][14]. - The EU's ability to present a unified front in trade discussions is crucial, as internal disagreements could lead to unfavorable outcomes for the bloc [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market situation is influenced by overseas tariff risks and domestic policies. The equity market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and the bond market also shows strength. Different commodity futures have various trends based on their specific supply - demand and macro - economic factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with trading positions holding cash and waiting for opportunities [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short position of the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option opportunistically, and cautiously hold long positions in IM2507 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff risks are rising, and domestic policies are boosting the domestic demand and the innovation of enterprises. Technically, the market is in a bullish cycle, and risk appetite has increased [1][2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, while long - term bonds are relatively stronger [3]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [3]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The improvement of the long - term liability side of large banks and the expectation of policy easing support the bond market [5]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper** - **Intraday View**: The price range is 78800 - 80500 [6]. - **Medium - term View**: The price range is 60000 - 90000 [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a weak - biased oscillatory trading strategy [6]. - **Core Logic**: The possible Fed rate cut, supply changes in different regions, weak demand, inventory changes, and the upcoming Sino - US tariff negotiation results affect the copper market [6][7]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 7900 - 8200 [8]. - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure, with a range of 7000 - 8500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8]. - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand are decreasing, and the inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Rise and then fall, with a range of 35000 - 36000 [11]. - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 28000 - 38000 [11]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. - **Core Logic**: Supply and demand are both down, and the inventory is high, indicating an obvious supply surplus [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 63000 - 64000 [12]. - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with a range of 56000 - 68000 [12]. - **Reference Strategy**: Short the futures at high prices and sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [12]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, supply pressure is high, and the inventory is at a high level [12].

周一（7月7日）欧洲时间，白银期货价格下跌，最新沪银主力报8882元/千克，跌幅0.39%，今日开盘于 8919元/千克，最高上探至8953元/千克，最低触及8853元/千克。 贝森特说："进入最后阶段会有很多拥堵，作为贸易团队的一员，有特朗普总统站在我们这边的好处 是，他创造了最大的谈判筹码。" 特朗普上周五对记者说，最快周一可能会向十几个国家发送信件，关税税率从"60%或70%到10%或 20%"不等。他说，关税将于8月1日生效，同时再次谎称是外国支付了关税，而实际上是由美国进口商 支付的。 【技术面分析】 沪银在过去一周的表现符合预期，但随着非农数据的公布，沪银价格回落，目前有一定的利润空间。本 周，沪银的走势依旧保持震荡整理，投资者应关注关键支撑和阻力位。沪银的下方支撑位在8900和 8700，若价格跌破8900，则可能会打开更大的回调空间，目标可看向8700；若8700支撑有效，则可考虑 做多操作。整体而言，沪银短期内仍处于震荡整理之中，操作策略应以区间波动为主。 【要闻速递】 自从宣布全面征收所谓的对等关税以来，特朗普政府只与英国和越南签署了协议，并与亚洲大国达成了 一项有限的协议，两国暂时取消了 ...