Core Insights - The article highlights the growing trend of "emotional consumption" among young people in China, where nearly 30% of respondents engage in spending to achieve emotional satisfaction, reflecting a shift towards valuing emotional benefits over traditional product value [1][5]. Group 1: Emotional Consumption Trends - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to products that provide emotional value, such as stress-relief toys, personalized gifts, and immersive experiences like concerts and interactive performances [1][5][11]. - Sales of stress-relief toys have surged, with one store reporting over a 50% increase compared to the previous year [1][7]. - Unique experiences, such as creating personalized comics, have become popular, indicating a shift towards experiential purchases [3][5]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The rise of emotional consumption has led to new business opportunities, prompting companies to pivot towards products that cater to emotional needs, such as stress-relief toys and personalized services [7][11]. - The demand for unique and personalized items, including decorative plants, is also on the rise, with specific products like the "龟背竹" and "彩叶芋" becoming popular among urban consumers [9][11]. Group 3: Future Directions - Experts suggest that to transition from "spending for happiness" to "enjoying the act of spending," there is a need to enhance the supply of emotional consumption products and promote a rational consumption mindset [13]. - The emotional consumption trend is evolving from individual choices to a broader social movement, creating new job opportunities in design and customization [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "emotional consumption" among young consumers is driving the demand for innovative products that alleviate anxiety and provide emotional companionship, leading to a vibrant new market segment [1][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - In Jinan, the "emotional consumption" area in shopping malls is particularly popular, with products like "squeeze toys" attracting significant attention [3]. - In Shanghai, stores featuring colorful decor and unique products with personalized slogans are drawing young consumers, indicating a shift towards more engaging retail experiences [6]. - The popularity of personalized experiences, such as creating custom "four-panel" comics for 99 yuan, highlights the demand for unique emotional products [8]. Group 2: Sales Growth and Opportunities - Data from Xiaohongshu shows that the number of posts related to emotional products like aromatherapy and stress-relief toys has increased over 400 times in the past three years [10]. - Taobao reports that in 2024, spending on emotional value and interests has become the primary reason for young consumers' purchases, with sales of customized items like hand-drawn portraits and unique pillows rising over 50% [10]. - The surge in demand for stress-relief products has created new growth opportunities for businesses and farmers, with a notable increase in the registration of related companies [10][17]. Group 3: New Careers and Innovations - The trend of emotional consumption is not only transforming the market but also giving rise to imaginative new professions, such as stress toy designers and "doll modification" specialists [19][21]. - A young designer transitioned from crafting traditional art to creating stress-relief toys, successfully launching over 30 popular products [19]. - The "doll modifier" profession has gained popularity, with individuals like Huang Ting training hundreds of students in doll customization, reflecting the growing interest in this niche market [21][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a slow recovery in social consumption, with overall business pressure on retail enterprises. The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth segments [4][27] - The report identifies key segments within the retail industry, including traditional retail, gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics, each with unique dynamics and investment opportunities [4][27] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index rose by 0.88% during the week of May 6 to May 9, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.92% [6][15] - The brand cosmetics sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 2.89% and a year-to-date increase of 15.91% [18][21] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in segments driven by emotional consumption, including: 1. **Gold and Jewelry**: Emphasizing brands with differentiated products and consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, and Zhou Dasheng [7][48] 2. **Offline Retail**: Highlighting companies that are actively transforming and exploring new models, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][48] 3. **Cosmetics**: Focusing on domestic brands with strong growth potential, recommending brands like Pola, Shangmei, and Juzi Biological [7][49] 4. **Medical Aesthetics**: Suggesting attention to differentiated product manufacturers and leading medical aesthetic institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [7][49] Segment Analysis - **Traditional Retail**: The report notes that offline retail must leverage its strengths in customer service and emotional satisfaction to attract consumers back from online channels [4][28] - **Gold and Jewelry**: The industry is shifting from supply-driven to demand-driven, with emotional consumption becoming a key factor. High-end and fashionable gold segments are emerging as significant opportunities [4][36] - **Cosmetics**: The industry is stable in the short term, with a long-term trend favoring domestic brands. Emotional consumption is spreading across various cosmetic categories [4][41] - **Medical Aesthetics**: The industry is experiencing accelerated differentiation, with high-end products showing resilience due to their safety and scarcity [4][44]

Group 1: Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a slow recovery in social consumption, with overall business pressure on retail enterprises [27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption, suggesting that companies should focus on enhancing consumer service experiences and emotional satisfaction to drive positive accumulation [28][32] - The investment strategy highlights four main themes: gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics, each with specific recommendations for companies to watch [4][7][49] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Traditional retail is facing challenges as online traffic growth approaches its peak, and issues like e-commerce tax audits arise, making offline experiences more valuable [4][28] - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from supply-driven to demand-driven, with emotional needs like self-appreciation and national pride becoming significant [4][36] - The cosmetics industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands, with emotional consumption trends spreading to various segments, including functional skincare and home fragrances [41][49] Group 3: Company Recommendations - For gold and jewelry, companies like Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Zhou Da Sheng are recommended for their differentiated product offerings and consumer insights [7][48] - In offline retail, companies such as Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi are highlighted for their proactive transformation and exploration of new business models [7][48] - In the cosmetics sector, brands like Pechoin, Mao Ge Ping, and Juzi Biological are noted for their strong performance and ability to adapt to market trends [7][49] Group 4: Market Performance - The retail industry index rose by 0.88% in the week of May 6-9, 2025, but has decreased by 5.81% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the broader market [6][15] - The brand cosmetics sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 2.89% and a year-to-date increase of 15.91% [18][21] - Individual stocks such as Huazhi Wine and New Xunda saw significant weekly gains of 13.4% and 12.2%, respectively [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The overall consumption in China shows steady growth, with specific segments like national subsidy products and service consumption continuing to perform well [2][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - During the Labor Day holiday in 2025, key retail and catering enterprises in China reported a sales increase of 6.3% compared to the same period last year, although this represents a slight decline from the 6.8% growth seen in 2024 [2]. - The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment saw significant year-on-year growth of 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% respectively during the holiday [2]. - The restaurant sector also performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in sales for monitored catering enterprises [2]. Group 2: Service Consumption - Travel orders during the Labor Day holiday increased by 30% compared to the same period in 2023, with hotel bookings reaching a historical peak [2]. - Data from Douyin indicated a remarkable growth in accommodation group purchase orders by 79% and hotel scenic area package orders by 116% during the holiday period [2]. Group 3: Inbound and Duty-Free Sales - Inbound tourism spending in Beijing reached 1.13 billion yuan, marking a 48% year-on-year increase [3]. - Shanghai's duty-free sales saw a year-on-year increase of 120%, with the tax refund amount also rising by 130% [3]. Group 4: Duty-Free Shopping Trends - During the Labor Day holiday, duty-free shopping in Hainan amounted to 510 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the drop was less severe compared to the 15.9% decline during the Spring Festival [4]. - The average spending per person in duty-free shopping increased by 1.1% compared to the previous year, continuing the upward trend observed during the Spring Festival [4]. Group 5: Structural Highlights in Consumption - The national subsidy policy has expanded its coverage and increased subsidy amounts, leading to significant growth in sales of home appliances and other electronic products [5]. - The demand for investment-grade gold products has risen, alongside a growing preference for well-designed and branded gold jewelry [5]. - Emotional consumption is on the rise, with products based on popular IPs, such as blind boxes and figurines, performing exceptionally well [5].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the emergence of "emotional consumption" as a significant trend in the retail industry, particularly benefiting brands that resonate with consumers' emotional needs [2][3][28] - The retail sector is experiencing a slow recovery, with varying performance across different segments, highlighting the resilience of brands linked to emotional value [3][10][39] Industry Review - In Q1 2025, social consumption showed a slow recovery, with retail businesses facing overall pressure. However, segments related to "emotional value" consumption, particularly leading brands, performed significantly better than the industry average [3][10][39] - The jewelry sector is under pressure due to high gold prices, while cross-border e-commerce remains stable but with profit pressures. The medical beauty and cosmetics sectors are facing intense competition, and offline retail is still exploring transformative models [3][6][39] Segment Analysis Jewelry - The jewelry industry is experiencing a shift in brand competition, with traditional brands facing challenges from differentiated product brands that are rapidly emerging and achieving high growth [6][39] - In Q1 2025, the jewelry sector's revenue was 431.6 billion yuan, down 25.9% year-on-year, with net profit also declining [39][64] Cosmetics - The cosmetics sector is benefiting from the rise of emotional consumption, with a focus on high-demand segments such as high-end beauty and differentiated personal care brands [5][39][64] - Brands like Mao Ge Ping and Proya are highlighted for their strong performance in this evolving market [5][39] Medical Beauty - The medical beauty sector is expected to recover as domestic demand increases, with a focus on differentiated product lines [5][39] - Companies like Ai Meike and Kedi-B are recommended for their unique offerings [5][39] Offline Retail - Offline retail is leveraging emotional consumption to regain market share, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi being recommended for their proactive transformation efforts [5][39] - The report notes that the shift towards a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model is crucial for offline retailers to enhance customer experience and emotional satisfaction [69] Investment Recommendations - For the jewelry sector, brands with differentiated product capabilities and deep consumer insights are recommended, including Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji [5][66] - In the cosmetics space, the report suggests focusing on high-demand segments and brands that can continuously innovate [5][66] - The medical beauty sector is advised to consider companies with unique product lines, such as Ai Meike and Kedi-B [5][66] - The report highlights the importance of emotional value in driving consumer preferences, suggesting that brands that can effectively tap into this trend will outperform their peers [5][66]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in consumer spending during the May Day holiday, with total expenditure reaching 180.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.0% [1] - The number of cross-regional travelers exceeded 1.465 billion, marking a 7.9% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a robust recovery in domestic tourism [1] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a sales increase of 6.3% year-on-year during the holiday period, reflecting strong consumer demand [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) saw a rise of 1.33% as of May 6, 2025, with a cumulative increase of 3.65% over the past two weeks, indicating positive market sentiment towards consumer stocks [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.544 billion yuan, a new high in the past month, with significant leverage funds continuing to invest [1] - The financing buy-in amount for the ETF was 5.3328 million yuan, with a financing balance of 4.4631 million yuan, showcasing strong investor interest [1] Group 3 - Huatai Securities reports that the hotel industry is experiencing a recovery with both volume and price increasing, driven by the demand from the lower-tier markets and improved quality-price ratios [3] - The report anticipates a narrowing decline in duty-free sales due to promotional activities and tax rebate policies in Hainan, suggesting a positive outlook for the consumption sector [3] - The firm maintains a favorable view on the consumer sector's fundamentals improving throughout 2025, driven by various consumption stimulus policies [3][4] Group 4 - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities emphasizes the importance of consumption promotion policies in stabilizing growth amid external pressures, categorizing these policies into direct and indirect support measures [5] - Direct measures include subsidies and consumption vouchers, while indirect measures involve tax reductions and fee exemptions, particularly targeting large consumer goods [5] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) is positioned to benefit from new consumption stimulus policies and supports T+0 trading, focusing on four major sectors: food and beverages, textiles and apparel, home appliances, and tourism [6][8] - The ETF includes leading consumer companies with strong domestic recognition, such as Li Ning, Anta, and Haidilao, providing a diversified investment opportunity [7] - The ETF is noted for its significant scale and flexibility, making it a prominent choice in the Hong Kong market for investors looking to capitalize on consumer trends [8][9]

Core Insights - The new consumption market is experiencing significant growth, driven by younger consumer groups and innovative consumption scenarios [2][6][7] - New consumption stocks have become a focal point for investors, with notable price increases in various companies [2][3][5] - The investment logic in the consumption sector is shifting from total expansion to demand differentiation, highlighting the potential of new consumption companies [5][6] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "May Day" holiday showcased vibrant consumer activity, with events like comic exhibitions and the popularity of products targeting Generation Z [1][2] - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on new consumption scenarios, such as pet transportation services and trendy snacks, indicating a shift in investment focus [2][6] - The rise of "self-indulgent" and "emotional" consumption among younger demographics is driving market potential [2][6] Group 2: Stock Performance - New consumption concept stocks have seen substantial gains, with companies like Lao Pu Gold and Bubble Mart experiencing over 100% price increases this year [2][3] - In the A-share market, leading companies in the snack and pet economy sectors have also reported significant stock price increases, with Wanchen Group doubling in value [2][3] - The performance of traditional businesses adapting to new consumption trends, such as Ruoyu Chen, has also been notable, with stock prices rising significantly [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are recognizing structural opportunities within the consumption sector, with a focus on new consumption companies that cater to younger consumers [4][5] - The investment approach is evolving, with an emphasis on identifying innovative nodes and capturing new opportunities rather than relying solely on traditional market leaders [6][7] - Future investment strategies will likely continue to prioritize new consumption sectors, including trendy toys, gold jewelry, and pet products, while also considering traditional consumption as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the IP derivatives industry, particularly highlighting the strong performance of Pop Mart's Labubu 3.0 series and the potential of the "emotional consumption" sector [4][10]. Core Insights - On April 25, Pop Mart's official app topped the US App Store shopping chart for the first time, coinciding with the global release of the Labubu 3.0 plush series, which sparked a buying frenzy [4][7]. - The sales momentum of Pop Mart's new products underscores the high growth potential of the emotional consumption sector, with significant validation of its global potential in overseas markets [10]. - The secondary market for Labubu 3.0 products shows high premiums, with hidden variants selling for an average of 1,200 RMB, reflecting over a 10-fold increase from the original price of 99 RMB [10]. - The report emphasizes the strong product line innovation and marketing strategies of Pop Mart, including collaborations and limited editions aimed at various markets [10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Labubu 3.0 series has seen remarkable sales, with the average secondary market price for hidden variants reaching approximately 1,200 RMB, while regular variants also show significant price increases [10]. - The US pricing for Labubu 3.0 is set at 28 USD, a 27% increase compared to previous versions, primarily due to tariff adjustments [10]. Product Innovation - Pop Mart consistently launches new basic blind box products annually, with innovative designs and collaborations with popular brands like Coca-Cola and PRONOUNCE [10]. - The introduction of new IPs and expansion of existing ones, such as DIMOO's collaboration with Disney, further enhances product appeal and market reach [10]. Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing transformation of traditional stationery companies into diversified IP ecosystems, with companies like Guangbo and Chuangyuan leveraging popular IPs to create a wide range of products [10].

Core Viewpoint - The concert industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in the number of concerts and ticket sales, reflecting a strong consumer demand for live entertainment [4][6][10]. Group 1: Concert Popularity and Growth - During the recent May Day holiday, 63 concerts were held across major cities in China, indicating a booming concert scene [4][6]. - In 2024, an estimated 29 million people are expected to attend concerts, a 45% increase from 2023, with ticket sales projected to reach 29.636 billion yuan [6][10]. - The number of commercial performances in China reached 342,400 in 2023, with box office revenue of 31.541 billion yuan, significantly surpassing pre-pandemic levels [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Concerts - Concerts are described as "walking GDP," with every 1 yuan spent on tickets generating approximately 4.8 yuan in surrounding economic activity [17][21]. - For instance, Jay Chou's concert in Haikou attracted 154,600 attendees and generated 976 million yuan in tourism revenue, showcasing the substantial economic benefits of such events [18][21]. - Cities are increasingly leveraging concerts to boost local economies, with some cities implementing incentives to attract more performances [30][32]. Group 3: Audience Demographics and Consumption Patterns - The primary audience for concerts consists of individuals aged 20 to 34, who are the most financially capable and willing to spend on entertainment [21][24]. - A significant portion of concertgoers, 41.7%, have a monthly income between 5,000 and 10,000 yuan, indicating a strong consumer base for the concert industry [22][24]. - Concerts are becoming a staple in annual spending for many, with increasing frequency of attendance among fans [22][24]. Group 4: City Competition and Cultural Tourism - Cities are competing to host concerts, with regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta leading in the number of performances and ticket sales [14][25]. - The integration of concerts into urban cultural tourism strategies is evident, as cities enhance their appeal to attract both artists and audiences [30][32]. - Successful cities are those that not only attract concerts but also provide excellent services to enhance the visitor experience, turning transient visitors into repeat tourists [32][33].