Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - New home transaction area increased on a month-on-month basis but decreased year-on-year, with a significant drop in the year-on-year rate of decline [1] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle both decreased on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis [1] - The land market saw both volume and price increases, with a notable rise in the premium rate [1] - Domestic bond issuance by real estate companies decreased significantly, indicating tighter financing conditions [1] - The absolute return of the real estate sector increased, while the relative return compared to the CSI 300 also improved [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area for 40 cities was 3.366 million square meters, up 37.0% month-on-month but down 25.7% year-on-year [1][18] - Second-hand home transaction area decreased by 2.7% month-on-month but saw a smaller year-on-year decline of 0.9% [1][18] - New home inventory area for 12 cities was 87.42 million square meters, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 16.3% year-on-year [1][45] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area for 100 cities was 15.761 million square meters, up 47.9% month-on-month and up 25.6% year-on-year [1][14] - Total land transaction price reached 57.35 billion yuan, up 186.7% month-on-month and up 155.3% year-on-year [1][14] - The average floor price of land was 3,639 yuan per square meter, up 93.9% month-on-month and up 103.2% year-on-year [1][14] 3. Industry Policy Review - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to stabilize the real estate market through various supportive measures [1][6] 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 3.1%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the previous week [1][15] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) was 23.85X, up 0.68X from the previous week [1][15] 5. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of key company announcements within the real estate sector for the week [1][15] 6. Bond Issuance Situation - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 4.79 billion yuan, down 43.0% month-on-month and down 37.1% year-on-year [1][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the current policy environment recognizes the necessity of a stable and healthy real estate market for economic transformation, suggesting a potential turning point in the current cycle [9] - The new housing market shows a significant increase in transaction volume, while the second-hand housing market is experiencing a slight decline [4][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing a new model for real estate growth, tailored to local conditions, to better promote high-quality economic development [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector View - The report recommends strong local state-owned enterprises and quality private enterprises in real estate development, such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Greentown China [9] - In property management, companies with strong market expansion capabilities and service diversification are highlighted as having long-term investment value, recommending China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and Yuexiu Service [9] - For real estate brokerage, the report notes that the second-hand housing market has been recovering since August 2022, with a recommendation for leading companies like Beike and a suggestion to pay attention to Wo Ai Wo Jia [10] 2. Real Estate Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - New housing sales in 36 cities increased by 39.5% week-on-week but decreased by 31.0% year-on-year, with a total of 5043.6 million square meters sold year-to-date, down 4.0% year-on-year [14] - The second-hand housing market saw a slight decline in transaction volume, with a total of 4020.3 million square meters sold year-to-date, up 18.1% year-on-year [20] - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7849.6 million square meters, with a de-stocking period of 20.2 months [30] 3. Land Market Situation - The report notes that from June 23 to June 29, 2025, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1783.7 million square meters, down 23.0% month-on-month and down 55.6% year-on-year [50] - The average land price was 1586 RMB per square meter, reflecting a decrease of 23.8% month-on-month and 19.0% year-on-year [50] - Cumulative land transaction area for 2025 is 52061.3 million square meters, down 7.4% year-on-year [50] 4. Financing Situation - In the domestic credit bond market, real estate companies issued a total of 64.8 billion RMB in bonds last week, a decrease of 37.4% week-on-week [53] - The net financing amount for the week was -49.4 billion RMB, indicating a challenging financing environment [53] - Year-to-date, real estate companies have issued a total of 2299.7 billion RMB in credit bonds, up 7.1% year-on-year [53] 5. Market Review - The real estate sector saw a weekly increase of 3.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which increased by 2.0% and 3.6%, respectively [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The new housing contract area has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, while the second-hand housing contract area has experienced a narrowed year-on-year decline [1][8] - The report indicates that the overall demand for new and second-hand housing may stabilize due to potential decreases in mortgage rates, which could help narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5] - The report highlights that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0 times, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models, suggesting that the sector has entered an investment range [5] Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded to -14% as of June 26, with a notable drop in first-tier cities [3] - The report notes that the year-on-year decline in new housing contracts is at a middle level compared to the past five years [8] Second-Hand Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing contracts has narrowed to -1%, with first-tier cities showing a 9% increase [3] - The report indicates that the second-hand housing contract area has shown a positive trend in certain sample cities, with some cities experiencing a year-on-year increase [13] Market Trends and Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has increased by 3.9% month-on-month, indicating a positive shift in market activity [40] - The liquidity outlook suggests an expansion in macro-level liquidity as of June 2025, which may support market recovery [44] Land Acquisition and Pricing - The cumulative land transaction area from January to May 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [20] - The report notes that the proportion of properties with increased listing prices has decreased by 4.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential cooling in price increases [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][31]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery with a week-on-week increase in both new and second-hand property transactions, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4][31]. - The report emphasizes the need for continued policy support to enhance market conditions, particularly in light of the ongoing inventory reduction trends [4][31]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 3.792 million square meters, representing a week-on-week increase of 51.1% [5][8]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in June decreased by 13%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a decline of 11% and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a 26% drop [8][9]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities remained stable with a slight increase of 0.5%, while the cumulative transaction volume for June showed a year-on-year decrease of 5% [13][22]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 15 cities launched 1.82 million square meters of new housing, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.85, indicating ongoing inventory management challenges [22][31]. - The total available housing inventory in these cities was 89.79 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [22][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights key policy developments aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to support first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children [31][34]. - Recent statements from government officials indicate a commitment to expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumer confidence in the real estate sector [31][34].

周观点：央行强调加大收储推进力度 央行召开 2025 年第二季度例会，房地产层面，会议要求着力推动已 出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度， 持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构 建房地产发展新模式。 我们认为，在当前 5、6 月，房地产复苏动能减弱，市场下行压力增 加的背景下，7 月将迎来新一轮的政策宽松周期，今年以来出台的包 括收储、城中村改造及对房企的融资宽松政策，预计在三季度将加大 实施力度，助力行业止跌回稳。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（6.21-6.27） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 2.4 万套，环比上周增长 41%；2025 年累计成交总套数为 40.6 万套，累计同比下降 4.6%。其中，一线城 市成交 6085 套，环比上周增长 36.2%，2025 年累计成交 11.6 万套， 累计同比增长 9.6%；二线城市成交 15455 套，环比上周增长 47.4%， 2025 年累计成交 24.2 万套，累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing initial signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, although the underlying foundation remains fragile. A series of policies initiated since last year have contributed to a notable rebound in the market, particularly in core first- and second-tier cities, despite some fluctuations in sales and prices in April and May [2][3][7]. Policy Measures - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized the need for a comprehensive assessment of existing land and ongoing projects in the real estate sector, aiming to optimize current policies and enhance their effectiveness to stabilize expectations, activate demand, and mitigate risks [3][9]. - The 2025 real estate policy framework focuses on stabilizing expectations, promoting demand, optimizing supply, and preventing risks through financial support, demand stimulation, and revitalization of existing resources [11][12]. Market Performance - From January to May 2025, new residential sales area and sales revenue decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, but the decline was significantly less than in 2024, indicating a recovery trend [7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties decreased to 77.427 million square meters by the end of May 2025, marking a continuous decline for three months [8]. Land Market Activity - The land market in core cities has shown signs of recovery, with significant transactions occurring in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou, despite a national decline in land transaction volume [9]. Housing Supply and Demand - Local governments are implementing measures to relax purchase restrictions, provide subsidies, and optimize public housing policies to stimulate demand [12][13]. - The housing provident fund policies have been adjusted to lower interest rates and expand usage, enhancing affordability for homebuyers [13]. New Development Model - The shift towards a new real estate development model emphasizes a balanced approach to housing supply, focusing on quality and service rather than just speed and scale [16][19]. - The government is promoting urban renewal as a key strategy to revitalize existing assets and support long-term operational models in the real estate sector [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in 2025 is facing significant challenges, including financing difficulties and the need for debt restructuring among property companies, while the government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies to stabilize the market [1][2][3]. Financing and Debt Restructuring - Financing difficulties remain prominent, with property companies' financing in the first half of 2025 reaching 184.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [7]. - The approval of "white list" loans for real estate has increased, with 6.7 trillion approved by May 2025, indicating some marginal improvement in financing support [3][5]. - The cost of offshore bond financing for property companies in the first half of 2025 was 8.60%, while domestic bond financing costs decreased to 2.71% [9][10]. - The total debt maturity for property companies in 2025 is projected to be 532.7 billion, with the third quarter being a peak repayment period [14]. Government Policies and Market Stabilization - The government is maintaining a loose monetary policy and has proposed a special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion for local governments, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Urban renewal is a key focus for 2025, with significant progress in the renovation of old urban areas, with 5,679 projects initiated in the first four months [4][17]. - The government emphasizes the need for a new sustainable development model in the real estate sector, with urban renewal as a critical strategy [17]. Industry Outlook and Opportunities - The successful debt restructuring of companies like Xiexin and Jinke provides a model for other struggling firms, indicating a potential path for industry-wide risk mitigation [13][16]. - The ongoing urban renewal efforts are expected to create new opportunities for capable property companies, encouraging them to enhance housing quality and competitiveness [17].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen-based company Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A has successfully acquired land use rights in Guangming District for a total price of RMB 1.994 billion, indicating active participation in the local real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Details - Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A, in collaboration with Qianhai Tianjian Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. and Jianchen Development Co., Ltd., won the bidding for a land parcel in Guangming District, Shenzhen, with a total area of 34,995.97 square meters and a building area of 108,487 square meters [1]. - The land is designated for residential use with a usage period of 70 years and a plot ratio of ≤3.1 [1]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - The shareholding distribution for the land acquisition is as follows: Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A holds 40%, Qianhai Tianjian 30%, and Jianchen Development 30% [2]. - Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A is primarily controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shenzhen Municipal Government, which holds a direct stake of 21.93% [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A reported a revenue increase of 115.79% to RMB 6.065 billion, while the first quarter of 2025 saw a staggering 540.28% increase to RMB 1.618 billion [2]. - Despite the revenue growth, the company recorded losses of RMB 1.568 billion in 2024 and RMB 25.94 million in the first quarter of 2025 [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on innovation and reform, optimizing its investment layout in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and accelerating project turnover to ensure stable cash flow [3]. - Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A plans to explore new business areas, including urban village renovation, to promote sustainable and healthy development [3]. Group 5: Market Position - As of June 27, the stock price of Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A was reported at RMB 6.69 per share, with a total market capitalization of RMB 9.031 billion [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector is experiencing a policy-driven stabilization, with efforts focused on structural optimization and market stabilization through various measures [1][2][4]. Policy Support and Market Recovery - The real estate policies in the first half of the year maintained a loose stance, with central authorities optimizing policies to boost housing consumption [2]. - Fiscal policies have been instrumental, with the issuance of special bonds to support land reserves, effectively aiding market stabilization [2]. - Financial policies have also intensified, including a reduction in policy interest rates and housing loan rates to historical lows, which has helped release housing consumption demand [2]. - Local governments have implemented 362 market stabilization policies, with a total land area of 9,553 hectares planned for acquisition and a total funding scale of 469.6 billion yuan [2]. Market Indicators and Challenges - The inventory pressure in the real estate market has eased, with a reduction of 7.15 million square meters in unsold commercial housing from April to May [3]. - Despite some improvements, the market still faces downward pressure, and confidence is gradually being restored [3][4]. Multi-faceted Approach to Stabilization - The first quarter showed a clear warming trend in the real estate market, but the pressure to stabilize increased in the second quarter, necessitating further policy support [4]. - The State Council emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks [4]. Demand Activation and Supply Optimization - Activating demand and optimizing supply are crucial for market stability, with a focus on new housing, old community renovations, and affordable housing construction [5]. - Reducing purchase barriers through tax incentives and housing fund support is essential to promote second-hand housing transactions and improve new housing sales [6]. New Development Model - Constructing a new development model for the real estate sector is seen as a fundamental strategy for achieving high-quality industry development [7]. - The implementation of the "Good House" national standard and urban renewal plans is expected to clarify the direction of industry transformation [8]. Institutional Support for Transformation - Establishing foundational systems such as a rental-purchase system and market-保障体系 is necessary for the new development model [9]. - The introduction of favorable financial tools for current housing sales can alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on June 26, 2025. Index futures, silver, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, soda ash, methanol, and natural rubber futures are expected to show a strong - side oscillation. Crude oil, fuel oil, and soybean meal futures are likely to have a weak - side oscillation. Treasury bond, gold, copper, aluminum, glass futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][3][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On June 26, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to oscillate strongly. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate on June 26, with corresponding support and resistance levels [3][42][46]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2508 will likely oscillate and consolidate on June 26, while silver futures AG2508 are expected to oscillate strongly [3][47][54]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper CU2508, aluminum AL2508, and glass FG509 are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 26. Alumina AO2509, nickel NI2508, and tin SN2508 are expected to oscillate strongly [3][4][59][69]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil SC2508 and fuel oil FU2509 are expected to oscillate weakly on June 26. Industrial silicon SI2509, lithium carbonate LC2509, coking coal JM2509, soda ash SA509, methanol MA509, and natural rubber RU2509 are expected to oscillate strongly [4][7][103]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate weakly on June 26 [7]. - **Building Materials Futures**: Rebar RB2510, hot - rolled coil HC2510, and iron ore I2509 are expected to oscillate weakly on June 26 [4][5][85]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: Chinese leaders made statements on economic globalization, domestic market construction, and other aspects. Relevant departments launched special rectification actions and issued policies on attracting foreign investment [8][9]. - **International News**: US President Trump made statements on multiple issues, including Iran, the Fed chair, and trade policies. NATO members reached a defense spending agreement. The EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on the US [9][10][11]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **International Oil Prices**: On June 25, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with US oil rising 0.9%. US EIA crude oil inventories decreased more than expected [11]. - **International Precious Metals**: On June 25, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold rising 0.37% and silver rising 1.35% [11]. - **London Base Metals**: On June 25, most London base metals rose, with LME tin rising 2.5%, zinc and nickel rising 1%, and copper rising 0.6% [12]. - **Steel Output**: In May, global crude steel output decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with China's output down 6.9% and India's up 9.7% [12]. - **Exchange Rates**: On June 25, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [12][13].