Group 1 - China's April PMI will be released on April 30, indicating the economic activity level [1] - Domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted at midnight on April 30, with a mixed probability of price increase and stability. Year-to-date, there have been eight adjustments, resulting in a decrease of 425 yuan per ton for gasoline and 410 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [1] - A total of 10 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked today, with a total unlock volume of 44.7 million shares, amounting to a market value of 767 million yuan [1] Group 2 - On April 30, 73 companies disclosed 76 stock repurchase progress reports, with 51 companies announcing new repurchase plans. The highest repurchase amounts were from China Railway, Weichai Power, and Zhongtai Securities, with proposed repurchase amounts of 1.6 billion yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 500 million yuan respectively [2] - Among the companies that had their repurchase plans approved by shareholders, WuXi AppTec, Hualu Hengsheng, and Yapu Co. had the highest proposed repurchase amounts of 1 billion yuan, 300 million yuan, and 200 million yuan respectively [2] - The highest repurchase amounts implemented were by Longqi Technology, Changfei Optical Fiber, and Guodian NARI, with repurchase amounts of 201 million yuan, 110 million yuan, and 99.9 million yuan respectively [2]

2025 年 4 月 28 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-04-28 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 4月29日 欧元区4月经济景气指数 点评：4月29日17:00，欧盟统计局将公布欧元区4月经济景气指数和工业景气指数。预期欧元区4月经济景 气指数为94.5，前值为95.2；预期欧元区4月工业景气指数为-10.7，前值为-10.6。如果欧元区4月经济景气指 数和工业景气指数均小幅低于前值，则将轻度抑制有色金属、原油及相关商品期货价格上涨，但是将轻度有助 于黄金和白银期货价格上涨。 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 4 月 29 日 22:00，美国谘商会将公布 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数。 4 月 30 日 09:30，国家统计 ...

中信证券：在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临 近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率更大。 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI大幅下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数创2022年7月以来新低。②欧元区4月服务业意外收缩。③日本4月服务业PMI反弹，东京4月核心CPI同比增速自2023年7月以来首次高于3%。 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回升）、就业（美国续请失业金人数回 落）、物价（大宗价格回升）。②景气下行的有：地产（房贷申请数量回落）、就业（美国初请失业金人数回升）、物价（汽油零售价回 落）。 3、美国流动性高频 ：①美国和欧元区金融条件放松。②离岸美元流动性：日元对美元3个月掉期基差回升，欧元兑美元3个月掉期基差 回落。 报告摘要 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数创2022年7月以来新 低 。 2、欧 ...

美国4月标普全球制造业及服务业PMI初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

4月23日，标普全球公布4月欧元区、德国、法国PMI初值。欧元区4月综合PMI几乎停滞，主要受到服务业收缩的拖累。制造业PMI略有回升至48.7，表现优 于预期。 德国商业活动四个月来首次意外萎缩，但制造业小幅增长；法国综合PMI指数也从48下降至47.3，服务业的下滑也比制造业更为严重。 受服务业拖累，欧元区经济陷入停滞 SHMET 网讯： 受特朗普关税不确定性影响，欧元区、德国、法国服务业均意外收缩，但制造业PMI意外超预期。 由于特朗普在关税政策上的反复无常，企业一直受到不确定性的影响。部分活动是来自工厂完成过去的订单，订单积压指数已从3月份的47.7下滑至46.8，创 三个月来的最低。 汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia表示： "服务业活动不增反减，而这几乎是2024年2月以来首次出现的情况。这已将整个经济推入停滞区域。" 随着整体需求再次下降，企业重新开始裁员。综合就业指数已从3月份略高于荣枯线的50.4下降至49.9。 更令人担忧的是，服务企业的乐观情绪大幅下滑，商业前景指数从57.8跌至53.1，创下自2020年以来的最低水平。相较之下，近三年连续萎缩的制造业却有 所改善 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract rising 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The industry is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased. The PMI is declining, and the copper market is in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The processing fee is recovering slowly, and CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [4][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper's main contract rose 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors from the Russia - Ukraine war and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. LME copper inventory was 213,400 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,330 tons to 171,611 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2023, the copper market is in a tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2024. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory remains at a high level, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is recovering slowly [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific information provided. - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific information provided.

Group 1: PMI Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for March 2025 is reported at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The new orders index rose to 51.8%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating improved demand[12] - The service sector PMI increased to 50.3%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point rise, while the construction PMI reached 53.4%, the highest since June of the previous year[9] Group 2: Economic Trends and Challenges - Despite the positive PMI trends, the overall economic recovery remains weak, with manufacturing PMI still below seasonal averages[2] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing passive destocking, with finished goods inventory index dropping to 48.0%, indicating a supply-demand gap[4] - Price indices for both factory and raw material purchases fell by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively, suggesting ongoing price pressures on profitability[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors are showing significant recovery, with PMIs of 52.3% and 52.0%, respectively[4] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) saw a notable rebound in PMI, with small enterprises reaching 49.6%, the highest level since June of the previous year[4] - The construction sector is facing challenges due to funding pressures and low new order indices, which fell to 43.5%[9]

Report Date - The report is dated April 2, 2025 [1][5][10] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. The market is influenced by factors such as US tariff policies, economic data, and geopolitical tensions [2][4][5] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. The Shanghai gold futures contract 2504 closed at 736.30 yuan, up 0.89% [2][5] - **Silver**: Declined due to the impact of non - ferrous metals. The Shanghai silver futures contract 2504 closed at 8412 yuan, down 0.84% [2][5] Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, waiting for the US to impose tariffs. The Shanghai copper futures contract closed at 80,430 yuan, up 0.60% [2][10] - **Aluminum**: Traded in a high - level range. The Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 20,525 yuan [2][13] - **Alumina**: Prices are under pressure. The Shanghai alumina futures contract closed at 2951 yuan [2][13] - **Zinc**: Traded under pressure, with attention on tariff disturbances. The Shanghai zinc futures contract closed at 23,615 yuan, up 0.68% [2][16] - **Lead**: Weak in the medium - term. The Shanghai lead futures contract closed at 17,410 yuan, down 0.20% [2][19] - **Nickel**: The cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by nickel ore, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized. The Shanghai nickel futures contract closed at 130,360 yuan [2][22] - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term is dominated by cost logic, while there is still pressure on supply and demand in the medium - term. The Shanghai stainless steel futures contract closed at 13,545 yuan [2][23] - **Tin**: Continued to rise. The Shanghai tin futures contract closed at 287,480 yuan, up 1.82% [2][27] Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. The Si2505 contract closed at 9,790 yuan [2][32] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the number of warehouse receipts today. The PS2506 contract closed at 43,560 yuan [2][33] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The fundamental weakness remains, and there is a downward drive in the futures market. The 2505 contract closed at 74,360 yuan [2][36] - **Iron Ore**: Traded in a volatile manner. The I2505 contract closed at 792.0 yuan, up 2.46% [2][41] - **Rebar**: Sentiment improved, with a short - term rebound. The RB2505 contract closed at 3,170 yuan, down 0.09% [2][43] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Sentiment improved, with a short - term rebound. The HC2505 contract closed at 3,359 yuan, up 0.24% [2][43] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Traded in a wide range due to the resonance of the black metal sector. The silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract closed at 5984 yuan [2][48] - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Saw a slight rebound due to information disturbances at the ore end. The manganese ferroalloy 2505 contract closed at 6146 yuan [2][49] - **Coke**: There is a growing expectation of price increases, and it traded with a bullish bias. The J2505 contract closed at 1648 yuan, up 4.14% [2][52] - **Coking Coal**: Traded with a bullish bias. The JM2505 contract closed at 1008 yuan, up 1.97% [2][52] - **Steam Coal**: High - level inventory is putting pressure on prices. The ZC2504 contract had no trading volume yesterday [2][56] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remained stable. The FG505 contract closed at 1235 yuan, up 4.04% [2][60] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The PX主力 contract closed at 6986 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - **PTA**: With short - fiber production cuts, go long on PF and short on PTA. The PTA主力 contract closed at 4894 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - **MEG**: Supply has contracted, and it has rebounded from the bottom. Go long on MEG and short on PTA. The MEG主力 contract closed at 4515 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price of butadiene increased slightly, providing support for the market. [2][30] - **Asphalt**: Stabilized and traded in a range, with attention on inventory and inter - regional price differences. [2][32] - **LLDPE**: Traded in a short - term range, with pressure in the later period. [2][34] - **PP**: The price increased slightly, with average trading volume. [2][36] - **Caustic Soda**: Traded mainly in a range, with attention on export demand. [2][37] - **Log**: Traded in a volatile manner. [2][39] - **Methanol**: Traded under pressure. [2][41] - **Urea**: The near - month contract is strong, while the far - month contract is under pressure. [2][43] - **Styrene**: Stop - loss on short positions. [2][45] - **Soda Ash**: There were few changes in the spot market. [2][46] - **LPG**: Followed the oil price and traded in a narrow range. [2][47] - **PVC**: Traded in a low - level range. [2][50] Agricultural Products - **Fuel Oil**: Continued to rise at night, with short - term strength. [2][52] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rebounded following the crude oil price, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas market continued to widen. [2][52] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread, 8 - 10 positive spread, and 10 - 12 negative spread positions. [2][53] - **Short - Fiber**: Maintenance was implemented, and the processing margin expanded. [2][56] - **Bottle Chip**: Traded in a range, with a weak structure. [2][56] - **Palm Oil**: There is no obvious inventory pressure for now, and the near - term is strong. [2][57] - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by US biodiesel policies and tariffs, the price of US soybean oil rose. [2][57] - **Soybean Meal**: The rise in US soybean oil stimulated the increase in US soybean prices, and the domestic soybean meal followed the rebound. [2][59] - **Soybean**: Rebounded following the soybean market. [2][59] - **Corn**: Traded in a range. [2][61] - **Sugar**: Traded with a bullish bias. [2][63] - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the impact of macro - events. [2][64] - **Egg**: Traded weakly. [2][66] - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price decline has been realized in advance. [2][67] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. [2][68] Trend Intensity - **Gold**: 0 [8] - **Silver**: - 1 [8] - **Copper**: 0 [12] - **Aluminum**: 0 [15] - **Alumina**: 0 [15] - **Zinc**: - 1 [17] - **Lead**: - 1 [20] - **Nickel**: 0 [26] - **Stainless Steel**: 0 [26] - **Tin**: 1 [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: - 1 [35] - **Polysilicon**: 1 [35] - **Carbonate Lithium**: - 1 [39] - **Iron Ore**: 0 [41] - **Rebar**: 1 [46] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: 1 [46] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: 0 [51] - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: 0 [51] - **Coke**: 0 [54] - **Coking Coal**: 0 [54] - **Steam Coal**: 0 [59] - **Glass**: 1 [60] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: 1 [66] - **PTA**: 1 [66] - **MEG**: 1 [66]

Core Viewpoint - The March manufacturing PMI has returned to a one-year high, raising questions about whether it will repeat last year's pattern of a peak followed by a decline [1] Group 1: Comparison with Last Year - Similar to last year, the March PMI has seasonal increases following the end of the Spring Festival impact, but this year relies more on marginal improvements and enhanced "scientific content" rather than a short-term pulse effect [2] - The Longjiang Business School BCI for March is at 54.8%, higher than last year's 52.1%, and the EPMI has seen a significant month-on-month increase of 10.6 percentage points, marking the highest growth rate in two years [2] Group 2: PMI Performance Analysis - The new orders index for March PMI recorded 51.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points, becoming the largest driving factor for the manufacturing PMI [4] - The production index's month-on-month growth is only 0.1 percentage points, indicating that production recovery is lagging behind demand, possibly due to prior production being at sufficient levels [4] Group 3: Export and Demand Insights - The new export orders index for March PMI has increased by 0.4 percentage points, indicating ongoing efforts to "seize exports" [7] - Small enterprises have shown the most significant increase in PMI, with a month-on-month growth of 3.3 percentage points, contrasting with large enterprises' decline of 1.3 percentage points and medium enterprises' increase of 0.7 percentage points [7] Group 4: Sustainability of Demand Recovery - Despite positive signals from the March PMI, there are underlying risks, including weak performance in two major price indicators, with the raw material purchase price index at 49.8% and the factory price index at 47.9% [9] - The import index for March PMI is at 47.5%, reflecting a significant month-on-month decline of 2.0 percentage points, indicating insufficient domestic demand [12] - There is a prevailing cautious sentiment among enterprises, as the production activity expectation index has decreased from 54.5% in February to 53.8% in March, and the employment index has also declined [12]