Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a "safety cushion" of 6-12 months of living expenses before making any investments [1] - It provides tailored investment strategies based on different levels of available funds, focusing on long-term holdings (3-5 years) [3][4] Investment Strategies - For small funds (up to 100,000): 70% in broad-based index funds, 20% in high-dividend ETFs, and 10% as flexible capital for market dips [3] - For medium funds (100,000 to 500,000): 50% in broad-based index funds, 20% in industry-themed funds, 20% in government or high-grade credit bond funds, and 10% as flexible capital [3] - For large funds (over 500,000): 40% in broad-based index funds, 20% in selected industry-themed funds, 20% in government and high-grade credit bond funds, 10% in gold ETFs, and 10% as flexible capital [3] Risk Management - The article advises against putting all funds into one investment and emphasizes the importance of not chasing market trends [4] - It highlights the need for patience in long-term investments, warning against selling too early [4]

Core Insights - Duquesne Family Office, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, filed its third-quarter 13F, showcasing a dynamic and actively managed portfolio that emphasizes agile asset allocation [1][2] - The filing reflects Druckenmiller's ongoing pursuit of growth and value, with a notable increase in new positions while exiting others, consistent with the firm's nimble investment strategy [2] Holdings Summary - New significant positions include Amazon.com Inc. (437,070 shares), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (2,715,035 shares), Alphabet, Inc. (102,200 shares), Meta Platforms Inc. (76,100 shares), and StubHub Holdings, Inc. (4,259,516 shares) [5] - The firm closed several positions, including Microsoft Corp. (sold 200,930 shares), Eli Lilly & Co (sold 100,675 shares), Viking Therapeutics Inc. (sold 549,295 shares), Applovin Corp. (sold 76,100 shares), and Joby Aviation Inc. (sold 31,489 shares) [5] - As of September 30, 2025, the firm's top five holdings were Natera Inc. (13%), Insmed Inc. (8.6%), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (8.3%), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (5.3%), and Woodward Inc. (3.9%) [5] Investment Strategy - Duquesne's aggressive repositioning in the third quarter reinforces its reputation for nimble action and readiness to capture growth opportunities, particularly in the healthcare and technology sectors [2]

◎记者 赵明超 随着指数化投资发展提速，中国公募基金公司国际竞争力增强，截至三季度末，有两家机构跻身全球 ETF提供商二十强。在业内人士看来，随着投资者对多元资产配置的需求持续提升，叠加产品创新向更 深层次、更细分领域延伸，中国ETF市场的增长曲线仍具有想象空间，并有望在全球舞台上占据更重要 的位置。 两家公募跻身全球二十强 在业内人士看来，ETF快速发展，不仅是投资方式的变革，更意味着整个市场生态的重塑。 从ETF发展格局来看，其具有较强的头部效应，头部基金管理人遥遥领先，占据了较大的市场份额。其 中，截至11月12日，华夏基金ETF管理规模达到9125.11亿元；易方达基金紧随其后，为8618.52亿元； 华泰柏瑞基金的ETF管理规模超6000亿元。 从行业发展态势看，随着规模效应的持续显现，ETF正在成为基金公司的现金奶牛。以华夏基金为例， 尽管过去两年来基金管理费率下调，但得益于ETF规模的爆发式增长，基金公司利润依然增长。 数据显示，华夏基金2023年净利润为20.13亿元，2024年增至21.58亿元，今年上半年为11.23亿元。从公 司产品类型规模变化情况看，ETF的快速增长，为净利润贡献了重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry must adapt to the low interest rate environment by enhancing management and research capabilities to support economic development and wealth preservation for residents [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - Individuals should shift their mindset towards realistic return expectations and adopt a layered asset allocation approach, focusing on long-term investment in quality assets to smooth short-term volatility [2][3] - A key strategy is to match investment tools with the purpose of funds and risk tolerance, ensuring a portion of funds is allocated to safe, liquid assets for emergencies, while also investing in stable and elastic return assets [2][3] Group 2: Insurance Asset Management - Insurance asset management institutions should leverage their understanding of liability characteristics to enhance asset allocation strategies, focusing on long-term market trends and risk management [3][4] - Solid fixed-income assets remain crucial as they provide stable returns and align with the liabilities of insurance funds, while also allowing for the optimization of risk-adjusted returns [3][4] Group 3: Equity and Alternative Investments - Equity assets are essential for long-term returns, with a focus on high-quality stocks that offer stable cash flows and dividends, while also exploring new economic growth areas [4][5] - Alternative investments are viewed as important sources for enhancing returns, with a shift towards traditional non-standard high-yield assets and a focus on green investments and advanced manufacturing [5] Group 4: Technological Advancements in Research - The application of AI and large models significantly improves research efficiency in asset management, enabling better risk identification and decision-making support for investment managers [6] - As technology evolves, financial institutions are expected to increasingly rely on AI and quantitative tools, necessitating compliance with regulations and enhanced data security measures [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].

Asset Allocation - The investment research framework has evolved from the traditional Merrill Lynch clock to a Chinese-style monetary credit model, reflecting significant changes in China's economic development model and the diminishing role of investment in driving economic growth [12] - In the new era, liquidity is identified as a core factor influencing asset prices, with the monetary cycle remaining highly relevant. Additionally, international factors, exemplified by US-China relations, significantly impact export engines and cross-border capital flows, becoming crucial for capturing asset price changes [12] Historical Review of Stock and Bond Performance - The report reviews stock and bond performance since 2018, highlighting that in 2018, macroeconomic fundamentals were weak, leading to significant stock market declines while bonds provided good coupon returns. In 2019, equity markets experienced volatility, and bonds continued to offer protection [18] - The analysis indicates that from 2020 to 2025, equity markets have shown resilience driven by technology stocks and structural bull markets, while bonds have entered a bull market phase characterized by declining yields [18] Long-term Bond Market Trends - Historical data shows that each bond bull market corresponds with a downward trend in 10-year government bond yields, driven by the interplay of "debt bulls" and "asset scarcity" [20] - The current bond bull market has seen 10-year government bond yields reach new lows, indicating a significant shift in the bond market landscape [21] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is believed to be in a long-term upward trend, with the current phase identified as the third wave of a five-wave cycle. This phase is expected to last longer than previous cycles, indicating a gradual upward movement [25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's experience, noting that after the economic bubble burst in the 1990s, the Japanese stock market entered a long-term upward channel, supported by structural reforms and monetary easing [29] Core Investment Themes - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by stable US-China relations and a supportive global monetary environment. It suggests that technology stocks will lead the market in the next 5-10 years [36] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile environment, with a focus on coupon strategies as interest rates are projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 2.0% [36]

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that foreign capital is significantly reducing its holdings in Chinese bonds, with a notable decline attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and currency fluctuations, which may impact China's financial market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Reduction - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 29,765 billion yuan in Chinese bonds, a decrease of 2,843 billion yuan or 8.7% since the beginning of the year, marking the longest net outflow in five years [1]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.8%, compared to approximately 2.6% for Chinese bonds, creating a 2.2 percentage point yield advantage that attracts international capital [1][3]. - Approximately 62% of surveyed international investors indicated that currency fluctuations are a primary factor in their decision to adjust their holdings in Chinese bonds [3][4]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - The divergence in monetary policy, with the U.S. maintaining a stringent stance while China has implemented three interest rate cuts in 2025, has widened the interest rate differential, further encouraging capital flow to the U.S. [4]. - China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, which, while still higher than many global economies, has led to cautious sentiment among foreign investors regarding Chinese bonds [4]. Group 3: Impact on Financial Markets - Foreign holdings of Chinese bonds accounted for approximately 2.1% of the total bond market as of October 2025, down from a peak of 3.5% in 2023, suggesting that while the outflow has some impact, it is unlikely to cause severe disruption [6]. - The outflow of capital may exert some pressure on the renminbi, but China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.24 trillion as of September 2025, providing a solid foundation to manage currency fluctuations [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The internationalization of China's bond market is increasing, with Chinese bonds included in major international indices, which may provide a more stable source of foreign investment in the long run [7]. - A survey of 50 major asset management firms revealed that about 67% believe the proportion of Chinese bonds in their global asset allocation will increase over the next five years [7].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of long-term, high-interest fixed deposits is fading, as evidenced by a village bank's decision to remove its five-year fixed deposit product, indicating a shift in asset allocation due to declining interest rates [2][3]. Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - A village bank announced the cancellation of its five-year fixed deposit product effective November 5, 2025, signaling a shift in strategy among commercial banks, particularly smaller ones, to lower long-term liabilities in response to ongoing pressure on net interest margins [2]. - The average one-year fixed deposit rate among major domestic banks has dropped to 0.95%, reflecting a broader trend of declining deposit rates [2]. - Experts suggest that traditional views on saving in banks need to change, as high-interest earnings from fixed deposits are no longer viable, prompting investors to consider alternative low-risk, liquid products like bank wealth management and government bonds [2][4]. Group 2: Growth of Wealth Management Products - The number of individuals holding bank wealth management products increased by 12.70% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, with third-party platforms experiencing even more significant growth [3]. - For instance, the user base of the "Stable Profit Treasure" product from MyBank saw a remarkable 67% year-on-year increase, significantly outpacing the industry average [3]. - The average annualized yield for bank wealth management products is approximately 2.12%, while some cash management products like "Stable Profit Treasure" have achieved yields around 2.58%, making them more attractive than traditional fixed deposits [4]. Group 3: Banking Industry Transformation - The withdrawal of long-term fixed deposits and the rise of wealth management products reflect a broader transformation in banking business models, with a focus shifting towards wealth management services [4]. - Future competition among banks will center on their ability to provide diversified asset allocation solutions rather than just the number of branches or deposit volumes [4]. - Market observers predict that more small and medium-sized banks may follow suit in adjusting their long-term deposit strategies, emphasizing the need for investors to enhance their financial literacy and diversify their investment portfolios in a low-interest-rate environment [4].

Group 1 - The core highlight of China's economy this year is the 6.1% growth in foreign trade exports during the first three quarters, driven by increased capital goods exports to Africa and a decline in export prices [4][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes three key areas: accelerating technological self-reliance, promoting consumption to boost CPI and PPI, and creating a unified market to improve corporate profitability and investment opportunities [4][12][14] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 5%, with an expected increase in the fiscal deficit ratio from 4% to 4.5% next year, and a limited space for interest rate cuts [4][14] Group 2 - The current economic characteristics indicate a high-pressure environment, with a 4.5% growth in consumption primarily driven by trade-in programs, while investment is experiencing rare negative growth due to the real estate cycle [9][10] - The analysis of the real estate market suggests a prolonged down cycle, with the rental-to-sale ratio indicating a low valuation level compared to international averages, leading to a recommendation for reduced allocation in real estate [10][11] - The ongoing global economic situation shows increasing debt across major economies, with China maintaining a competitive edge in manufacturing and supply chains, making it difficult for other countries to replace Chinese manufacturing capabilities [6][7] Group 3 - The capital market presents opportunities, particularly in the context of declining interest rates and bond yields, suggesting a favorable environment for long-term bond investments [15][16] - Emphasis on embracing high-tech sectors, with a focus on selecting promising technology stocks as China undergoes a fourth industrial revolution [12][17] - The recommendation for gold as a long-term investment is based on the current global monetary system adjustments and the historical context of central bank gold holdings [18]

"财富管理既是一场'马拉松'也是一场'接力赛'。"近日，在接受上海证券报记者专访时，中国太保副总 裁苏罡直言，跑好"马拉松"意味着做好长期的财富规划、守住坚定理念；跑好"接力赛"意味着在不同的 经济周期、生命周期，做好现金流匹配和风险匹配。 中国太保是一家管理数万亿资产的综合性保险集团。苏罡从中国太保投资条线一路成长起来，先后在太 保资产、太保寿险、长江养老从事投资条线工作。作为保险资管领域的资深人士，他对宏观经济、资负 匹配、财富管理等问题有着自己的见解。 跑好"马拉松""接力赛" 财富管理与经济周期密切相关。身处不同的经济周期，意味着居民面对不同的投资机遇与挑战。 在财富管理过程中，居民还面临流动性匹配、风险匹配的难题。苏罡认为，财富积累最重要的目的是获 得可持续、可消费的现金流，而不是简单追求财富积累的最大化。针对生命周期的不同时点，要配套不 同的现金流规划。同时要重视货币的时间价值，发挥好复利在财富积累过程中的核心作用，即以长期主 义的理念去做好财富管理。 "从风险角度来看，个体与群体面临的风险是不一样的。"苏罡说，通常而言，当面临不确定性事件时， 群体的抗风险能力是要强于个体的。比如，基于大数法则， ...