"全球贸易战的始作俑者" ——多国媒体和专家批评美国滥施关税 科摩罗主流网络媒体科摩罗新闻网批评美国以"全球贸易警察"自居发起关税战，不仅是蓄意挑 衅，更是犯下战略错误，由此引发的经济紧张局势让世界变得十分脆弱。 克罗地亚经济分析师佩塔尔·武什科维奇表示，美国关税政策可能成为"全球经济衰退的导火索"。 从全球股市剧烈波动可以看出，经济衰退迹象已经显现，所有利益相关方都面临美国带来的风 险。 美国新一届政府上台后，推出一系列规模大、范围广、破坏性强的关税政策，引发国际社会广泛 批评。多国人士及国际舆论指出，美国单方面挑起全球贸易战并将关税工具化、武器化，美方霸 凌胁迫之举逆世界潮流而动，只会害人害己。 将世界经济置于危险境地 如果将一系列最新关税措施相叠加，美国关税税率将攀升至一个多世纪以来最高水平。不少媒体 报道说，美国在历史上屡次挑起贸易战，当前做法更是变本加厉。 彭博社刊文将美国称作"全球贸易战的始作俑者"。文章说，如果所谓"对等关税"全部生效，这将 是美国自1968年以来最大规模的一次加税，而"白宫没有任何后备措施来避免经济衰退"。 斯里兰卡卫报网刊文说，美国继近一个世纪前发动全球贸易战后，如今再次挥舞 ...

Group 1 - The financial markets experienced a significant sell-off, termed "Sell America," due to President Trump's threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, leading to investor disappointment and uncertainty [1][10]. - The period of "Sell America" occurred from April 4 to April 22, coinciding with Powell's remarks about the potential negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy [1][10]. - The S&P 500 index formed a "death cross" for the first time in three years on April 14, indicating potential further declines in the market [10][11]. Group 2 - Economic indicators show a mixed outlook, with March's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 2.8%, below expectations, suggesting a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - Consumer spending is declining across various income levels, with households cutting back on non-essential purchases, indicating economic strain [3][4]. - Economists predict a 40% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, with concerns that rising tariffs could exacerbate inflation and hinder economic growth [4][5]. Group 3 - Trump's administration has created uncertainty regarding trade policies, which has negatively affected business sentiment and consumer confidence [3][7]. - The potential dismissal of Powell raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [9][8]. - The recent turmoil in financial markets reflects a broader loss of confidence in U.S. economic policies and the safety of American financial assets [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metal industry, particularly for copper and aluminum, while recommending a focus on gold investments due to its relative certainty [1][2]. Core Insights - The easing of US tariff policies has led to a decrease in risk aversion, positively impacting market sentiment. However, upcoming economic data, especially for April, could influence market expectations regarding potential short-term recession risks [1]. - The report emphasizes the strong supply-demand fundamentals in the copper and aluminum markets, which have exceeded expectations this year, despite recession risks not being entirely ruled out [1]. - Long-term trends in the metal market are expected to shift back towards supply issues and new consumption drivers, with a specific recommendation to focus on gold investments and consider increasing positions in copper [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The metal industry has a total market capitalization of approximately 3929.7 billion, with 233 listed companies [2]. - The industry index for non-ferrous metals showed a weekly increase of 1.50%, ranking 10th among sectors [6]. Performance Metrics - Absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -7.5%, 6.3%, and 14.2% respectively, while relative performance is -3.8%, 10.6%, and 6.9% [4]. Key Metal Insights - Copper: As of April 24, copper inventories in major regions decreased by 51,700 tons, marking a continuous decline for eight weeks. The price of copper is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by robust demand [6][7]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 658,000 tons, with a strong operating rate of 97.6% for electrolytic aluminum. The report anticipates a significant increase in aluminum consumption driven by high-voltage investments starting in June [7]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices fluctuated, reaching over 3,500 USD/oz before retreating due to easing tariff concerns. The report suggests that inflationary pressures will continue to support gold prices in the medium term [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in the copper and aluminum sectors, such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Yunnan Copper, while also highlighting investment opportunities in the gold sector [1][6][7].

近日，Apollo首席经济学家Torsten Sløk团队用图表展示了当下美国消费者和企业是如何应对关税的。 根据Apollo的图表，关税对美国企业的影响已然显现。 新订单正在下降，资本支出计划正在下降，在关税生效之前库存正在上升，公司正在下调盈利预期。 对于美国普通家庭来说， 消费者信心指数已经跌至历史最低点， 为了规避关税带来的涨价，消费者在关税实施前便纷纷提前购买商品，无疑透支了未来的消 费力。同时，旅游业，特别是国际旅行，也开始出现放缓迹象。 具体看： 4月2日： 5月初到5月中旬： 5月中旬到5月下旬： 5月底到6月初： 关税导致自2020年以来，标普500指数公司对未来12个月每股收益（EPS）预期实现最大幅度的下降： 美国宣布对等关税； 20-40天–集装箱海运时间。 Apollo：2025年夏季可能进入经济衰退 Apollo分析了从2025年4月到夏季的经济衰退过程。由于关税调整和运输时间延长等因素，导致供应链中断，进而影响经济活动，最终， 2025年夏季可能进入 经济衰退。 美国港口集装箱到港量骤减； 1-10天--卡车/铁路从港口到城市运输时间。 美国内陆货运量骤减； 市场货架开始清空，企 ...

对于美国普通家庭来说，消费者信心指数已经跌至历史最低点，为了规避关税带来的涨价，消费者在关税实施前便纷纷提前购买商品，无疑透支 了未来的消费力。同时，旅游业，特别是国际旅行，也开始出现放缓迹象。 Apollo：2025年夏季可能进入经济衰退 近日，Apollo首席经济学家Torsten Sløk团队用图表展示了当下美国消费者和企业是如何应对关税的。 根据Apollo的图表，关税对美国企业的影响已然显现。新订单正在下降，资本支出计划正在下降，在关税生效之前库存正在上升，公司正在下调 盈利预期。 Apollo分析了从2025年4月到夏季的经济衰退过程。由于关税调整和运输时间延长等因素，导致供应链中断，进而影响经济活动，最终，2025年夏 季可能进入经济衰退。具体看： 4月2日： 5月初到5月中旬： 5月中旬到5月下旬： 5月底到6月初： 关税导致自2020年以来，标普500指数公司对未来12个月每股收益（EPS）预期实现最大幅度的下降： 美国宣布对等关税； 20-40天–集装箱海运时间。 美国港口集装箱到港量骤减； 1-10天--卡车/铁路从港口到城市运输时间。 美国内陆货运量骤减； 市场货架开始清空，企业需要应 ...

见闻财经日历 WSCN Economic Calendar 地区 前值 时间 内容 预期 4月28日 周一 待定 十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议4月27日至 園内 30日在北京举行 事件 海外 待定 加拿大大选正式投票日 海天味业、昆仑万维、传音控股、药明康德、青岛啤酒 京东方A、上海电气、迈瑞医疗、恒立液压、保利发展 国内 中国石化、张小泉、中国建筑、顺丰控股、宁沪高速 财报 老板电器、百济神州-U、华帝股份 达美乐披萨、恩智浦 海外 4月29日 周二 待定 日本股市因昭和日休市一日 海外 事件 海外 Meta首届开源Al大会 光明乳业、工商银行、海尔智家、贵州茅台 万科A、长江电力、通威股份、伊利股份、金龙鱼 韦尔股份、中国海油、中远海控、招商银行、三一重工 国内 中信证券、中国人保、片仔擴、海螺水泥、隆基绿能 财报 浪潮信息、美的集团、新希望、工业富联 红星美凯龙、复星医药、中国中免 辉瑞制药、希尔顿、可口可乐、霍尼韦尔 海外 联合包裹、通用汽车、星巴克、阿迪达斯 4月30日 周三 v 华尔街见闻 | | 国内 | 09:30 中国4月官方制造业PMI | | 50.5 | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The average tariff imposed by the US has surged from 3% to over 20%, marking the highest level in nearly a century, which has led to significant declines in stock and commodity prices, reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s [1][2] - High tariffs disrupt global supply chains, forcing companies to adjust production layouts, which reduces global production efficiency and raises the US policy uncertainty index to its second-highest level in decades [1][5] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to push inflation higher, slow down economic growth in exporting countries, and suppress overall production, leading to a lasting negative impact on the macroeconomy [1][6] - The report predicts a potential recession or stagflation in the US economy, with GDP expected to drop sharply and both consumption and investment slowing down, contrasting with the prevailing belief in the resilience of the US economy [1][8] - Economic data in the US shows significant divergence, with soft data (like consumer confidence) not aligning with hard data (like sales figures), necessitating careful differentiation between core and auxiliary data to avoid reliance on distorted information [1][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The US government has announced a significant increase in tariffs, raising basic tariffs by 10% and imposing tariffs of 30% to 50% on countries with large trade deficits with the US, resulting in an average tariff increase to over 20% [2][3] - This tariff increase has led to a notable decline in US stock markets and commodity prices, indicating a substantial negative impact on the economy [4][5] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the US economy may face a challenging future, with a high likelihood of recession or stagflation due to the adverse effects of tariffs and other policies [7][8] - The analysis indicates that the most resilient sectors, such as consumption and investment, are also showing signs of slowing down, confirming the overall downward trend in the economy [17][18] Global Economic Context - China's economy showed a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter, but is expected to face challenges in the second and third quarters due to tariff impacts, with potential government measures to stabilize recovery [19][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the contrasting policy environments between the US and China, with China having more room for counter-cyclical stimulus due to lower inflation [20][21] Asset Allocation Recommendations - In the current environment, the report recommends allocating to safe assets like gold and Chinese bonds, while advising caution regarding traditional safe assets like US dollars and bonds due to their diminished safety and resilience [44][38] - The report suggests that investors should maintain a cautious stance towards US equities, given the potential for recession or stagflation, and consider structural adjustments in their portfolios [39][42]

首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈 判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美双 方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报 道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后，将实现净投放 5000 亿元。 3 月央行超量续作 MLF ，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油 ： SC 上涨 1% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家 利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨 ...

21世纪经济报道记者舒晓婷 北京报道美国滥施关税，对其自身经济造成的冲击已经有所显现。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间4月23日，美联储发布最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（简称"褐皮书"）， 这是美国滥施关税后的第一份褐皮书，因此备受市场关注。 褐皮书显示，自上次报告以来，国际贸易政策的不确定性普遍存在，仅有五个地区经济活动略有增长， 三个地区经济活动基本保持不变，其余四个地区经济活动略有下降。 褐皮书认为，随着经济不确定性的增加，特别是围绕关税的不确定性，多个地区的前景显著恶化。 渣打中国财富方案部首席投资策略师王昕杰在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，相较之前的褐皮 书，此次褐皮书阐述经济活动整体变动不大，其中就业总体保持不变或略有上升。值得注意的是，本次 编撰的信息均来自4月14日之前，"关税"一词被频繁提及，贯穿了本次褐皮书的始终，其最直接的表述 也观察到了美国各地区的物价普遍上涨，企业预计关税将导致成本上升。在此背景下，"不确定性"一词 也频繁出现，传达出在关税的影响下对于未来经济的担忧。 此外，王昕杰表示，最新一期褐皮书对于"通胀"的表述量减少，一方面可能是合并进"关税"相关内容做 联动讨论，另一方面可 ...

德国智库IFO：德国经济正在摆脱衰退 金十数据4月24日讯，周四公布的一项调查显示，德国4月份企业信心意外上升，不过由于企业的不确定 性增加，预期略显悲观。德国智库IFO经济研究所调查主管Klaus Wohlrabe表示："德国经济正在摆脱衰 退。"该研究所表示，4月企业景气指数从3月的86.7升至86.9，高于路透调查分析师的预估， ...