1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.6 points (previous value was 127.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 5.6 points (same as the previous value), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value was 5.0%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.9 (previous value was 126.7), with a week - on - week increase of 5.3 points (previous increase was 5.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - Regarding total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales is 42.8 (previous value was 42.9), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.3 points (same as the previous value), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment is 121.0 (previous value was 120.8), with a week - on - week increase of 6.5 points (previous increase was 6.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded; the high - frequency index for exports is 143.7 (previous value was 143.7), with a week - on - week increase of 2.1 points (previous increase was 2.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed; the high - frequency index for consumption is 120.3 (previous value was 120.2), with a week - on - week increase of 3.3 points (previous increase was 3.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast for CPI is 0.1% (previous value was 0.4%); the monthly环比 forecast for PPI is 0.0% (previous value was 0.1%) [2][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 161.9 (previous value was 161.7), with a week - on - week increase of 8.8 points (same as the previous value), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The high - frequency transportation index is 130.6 (previous value was 130.4), with a week - on - week increase of 9.6 points (previous increase was 9.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded. The high - frequency financing index is 236.8 (previous value was 236.2), with a week - on - week increase of 30.0 points (previous increase was 29.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [2][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is based on a statistical system covering various aspects such as overall, production, demand, prices, and financing. The current index is 127.6 points, with a stable year - on - year growth rate [8][9]. 3.2 Production: Electric Arc Furnace Operating Rate Rebounds - The electric arc furnace operating rate is 62.8% (previous value was 62.2%); the polyester operating rate is 87.4% (previous value was 87.1%); the semi - tire operating rate is 73.5% (previous value was 67.5%); the full - tire operating rate is 65.6% (previous value was 59.8%); the PTA operating rate is 75.0% (previous value was 69.5%); the PX operating rate is 85.9% (previous value was 84.6%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 49.0 tons (previous value was 51.4 tons) [11][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Declines - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 19.6 million square meters (previous value was 22.0 million square meters); the land premium rate for land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 4.4% (previous value was 1.8%) [24]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rises Significantly - The operating rate of the asphalt plant is 34.9% (previous value was 28.1%) [38]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1125 points (previous value was 1149 points); the RJ/CRB index is 300.7 points (previous value was 301.3 points) [40]. 3.6 Consumption: Average Daily Movie Box Office Continues to Decline Significantly - The average daily movie box office is 51.14 million yuan (previous value was 81.9 million yuan) [49]. 3.7 CPI: Average Wholesale Price of White - Strip Chickens Rises Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 6.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of white - strip chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value was 17.5 yuan/kg) [56]. 3.8 PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise Slightly - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi - produced, Q5500) is 676 yuan/ton (previous value was 682 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 67 US dollars/barrel (unchanged from the previous value); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9882 US dollars/ton (previous value was 9829 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2644 US dollars/ton (previous value was 2613 US dollars/ton) [58]. 3.9 Transportation: Flight Passenger Volume Drops Significantly - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 37.16 million person - times (previous value was 36.26 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value was 1051 points); the number of domestic flights is 11,468 (previous value was 13,157) [69]. 3.10 Inventory: Aluminum Inventory Continues to Rise - The aluminum inventory is 193,000 tons (previous value was 174,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 1.81 million tons (previous value was 1.821 million tons) [75]. 3.11 Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Increases Significantly - The net financing of local government bonds is 192.8 billion yuan (previous value was 36.7 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 91.9 billion yuan (previous value was - 55.3 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.8% (previous value was 0.73%); the average of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.8% (previous value was - 0.88%) [86].

Group 1 - The unexpected drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, which rose by 2.6% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3%, has been interpreted as a clear signal of cooling inflation [2] - The immediate market reaction included a surge in the S&P 500 index to a historical high, a rise in gold prices exceeding 1.5%, and an increase in the probability of a rate cut in September to over 90% [3] Group 2 - There are three cognitive traps investors may overlook: the transmission from PPI to Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not straightforward, with current core CPI still at 3.8%, far above the 2% target [3][4] - The market has overestimated the rate cut expectations, pricing in 3-4 cuts this year, which exceeds the Federal Reserve's implied 1-2 cuts [3] - The divergence between valuations and earnings is increasing, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 21 times, while expected earnings growth for Q2 has dropped to 3.2% [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a layered strategy: short-term traders should follow the trend but maintain strict stop-loss orders, while long-term investors should focus on high-certainty value stocks and gradually reduce exposure to overvalued assets [4] - Key upcoming data to watch includes the CPI, which will be crucial in validating the PPI signals [4] - All investors should prepare for two scenarios: if inflation continues to cool, gradually increase holdings in interest-sensitive assets; if inflation shows persistent stickiness, allocate more to defensive assets [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's PPI has shown a declining trend in the first eight months of the year, but the decline in August has narrowed to -2.9% year-on-year, with signs of price recovery in industrial products [2][4] - In August, the CPI was -0.4% year-on-year, with core CPI at 0.9%, marking a continuous expansion for four months [4][7] - The persistent decline in PPI has put significant pressure on industrial enterprise profits, with profits in the first half of 2025 decreasing by 1.8% to 3.44 trillion yuan, comparable to the first half of 2018 [5][9] Group 2 - Policies aimed at promoting reasonable price recovery have been introduced, focusing on expanding domestic demand and regulating competition among enterprises [6][11] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need to regulate disorderly competition and promote capacity governance in key industries, signaling a move towards reducing "involution" [6][10] - The recent changes in PPI are closely related to the "anti-involution" policies, which have led to price increases in commodities such as photovoltaic and lithium batteries [10] Group 3 - The article discusses the broader industry impact of the current PPI decline, noting that the contribution of consumer manufacturing and public utility sectors to the PPI decline is 29.3%, significantly higher than previous cycles [10] - The need for further demand-side efforts to promote PPI recovery is recognized as a consensus among economists [11] - The article highlights the importance of avoiding aggressive measures to eliminate excess capacity in competitive industries to maintain long-term economic growth [11]

Core Viewpoint - In August 2023, food prices in China experienced a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, which is a significant increase in the rate of decline compared to the previous month, impacting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) negatively [1] Economic Indicators - The decline in food prices was primarily driven by a drop in pork, fresh vegetables, and egg prices, each showing a year-on-year decrease of over 10% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and indicating a continuous expansion in the growth rate for four consecutive months [1] - The overall impact of the food price decline on the CPI was a reduction of 0.51 percentage points compared to the previous month, highlighting the ongoing positive changes in pricing dynamics [1]

Market Trends - CPI 超预期和疲软的美国就业数据推动比特币价格上涨 [1] - 美元走弱，收益率下降 [1] - 比特币看起来准备好迎来重大突破 [1]

Economic Overview - The national economy is expected to maintain a steady and progressive development trend in the third quarter, supported by continuous macro policies and stable growth in industrial and service sectors [3] - In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, indicating stable employment conditions [1][3] - Consumer prices in August showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, primarily due to falling food prices, while core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0.9%, marking an expansion in the growth rate for four consecutive months [1][4] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales and housing prices, although sales are still decreasing, indicating a need for continued efforts to promote recovery [2] Consumer Market - Consumer demand is expected to expand with seasonal factors and upcoming holidays, which may positively influence CPI [4] - Despite stable commodity consumption, there is a need to enhance consumer confidence and internal momentum, prompting the implementation of special actions to boost consumption [8] Industrial Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in August, attributed to improved market competition and increased demand in emerging industries [5] - The current PPI remains in a declining range, necessitating further efforts to expand domestic demand and regulate market competition to promote reasonable recovery of industrial prices [5] Private Investment - Private investment has slowed due to changes in the international environment and adjustments in the real estate market, but investment in non-real estate projects remains stable, supported by policies aimed at enhancing the environment for private economic development [6][7] Employment and Skills Training - Employment policies are being strengthened to maintain overall stability in the job market, with a focus on addressing structural challenges in employment and enhancing vocational skills training to improve labor market matching [11]

Economic Overview - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [1][3] - The month-on-month CPI was stable, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month, with food prices rising by 0.5% and non-food prices declining by 0.1% [3] Price Changes - Food prices saw a significant increase in fresh vegetables (up 8.5%) and eggs (up 1.5%), contributing to a 0.17 percentage point increase in the month-on-month CPI [3] - Conversely, prices for fresh fruits, aquatic products, and pork decreased by 2.8%, 0.9%, and 0.5%, respectively, leading to a 0.09 percentage point decrease in the month-on-month CPI [3] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month, and has been on the rise for four consecutive months [4] - The increase in core CPI is primarily driven by the recovery in industrial consumer goods and service prices [4] Market Dynamics - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and implementing measures to boost consumption, including enhancing effective investment and promoting a unified national market [4] - The ongoing initiatives aim to address supply-demand imbalances and promote reasonable price recovery in key industries [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Stock index fluctuations increase and bonds recover. Stock index futures should be put under observation, and light long positions in treasury bond futures are recommended [121][123][124] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE 50) and CSI 300 Market Review**: The SSE 50 is approaching a new high, and the CSI 300 has reached a new high [9] - **1.2 CSI 500 and 10 - year Treasury Bond Market Review**: The CSI 500 has reached a new high, and treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly [15][16] 3.2 Market Momentum Analysis - **2.1.1 Trading Volume of SSE 50 and CSI 300**: The trading volume of the SSE 50 has declined, while that of the CSI 300 has increased [21] - **2.1.2 Trading Volume of CSI 500 and CSI 1000**: The trading volumes of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have declined [25] - **2.1.2 Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeds 2 trillion [29] - **2.1.3 Turnover Rate - Free - Float Market Capitalization**: The turnover rates of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 have increased, and those of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have increased significantly [32] - **2.2.1 CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors are relatively consistent [39] - **2.2.2 CSI 300 Sector ALPHA**: The ALPHA values of the materials, information, and telecommunications sectors are positive, while those of the energy, finance, and utilities sectors are negative over the full cycle [43] - **2.3 Newly Listed Companies**: In July, the number of listed companies increased by 3 [49] - **2.4.1 Stock Index Positions**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **2.4.2 Stock Index Premium or Discount**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **2.5.2 Treasury Bond Basis - Cheapest - to - Deliver Bond**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **3.1.1 Open Market Operations**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Yield to Maturity - CSI**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures (10 - year) IRR**: The IRR of the next - quarter 10 - year treasury bond futures has declined significantly [84] - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures (5 - year) IRR**: The IRR of the next - quarter 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [87] - **3.1.3 Inter - bank Repo Rate**: The inter - bank repo rate has declined slightly [91] - **3.1.4 Shibor**: The short - term Shibor has declined significantly [95] - **3.2.1 CPI - PPI**: In August, the CPI was - 0.4%, showing a slight recovery, and the PPI growth rate reached - 2.9% [99] - **3.2.2 Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing Activities**: In August, the PMI dropped to 49.4, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3, indicating weak economic recovery [103] - **3.3.1 Consumption Situation**: In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, showing a slight increase [108] - **3.3.2 Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence is on a downward trend [111] - **3.4.1 Overall Money Supply**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%, credit accelerated, and M1 was 6% (Note: The central bank revised the M1 indicator). The newly added RMB loans in August were 590 billion [113][115] - **3.4.2 Newly Added RMB Loans**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.4 Outlook for the Future - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market trading volume is at the level of 2.5 trillion. Market sentiment shows that the number of limit - up stocks exceeds 100, and the number of falling stocks increases significantly. Hot sectors such as AI, the chip industry chain, and communications are experiencing significant high - level fluctuations. Funds are flowing into low - valuation sectors. Institutions have net inflows, while the main players, large - scale investors, and retail investors all have net outflows. Stock market fluctuations increase, and stock index futures should be put under observation [123] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: At the money market level, the central bank has a net reverse - repurchase injection of 196.1 billion. The money liquidity is relatively sufficient, and domestic market interest rates remain low. The yield to maturity of 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuates around 1.7895%. With significant stock market fluctuations, investors' risk preferences may be more cautious, and light long positions in treasury bond futures are recommended [124]

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Economic and Policy Research on China Industry Overview - **Industry**: Economic analysis focusing on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends Key Points Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Headline CPI fell by 0.4% year-on-year (oya) and 0.03% month-on-month (m/m, seasonally adjusted) in August, which was softer than the expected decline of 0.2% oya [1] - The primary contributor to the decline was food prices, which decreased by 4.3% oya and 0.8% m/m, reducing the headline CPI's annual rate by 0.9 percentage points [1][4] - Transportation and communication costs also saw a slight dip of 0.1% m/m, influenced by a 0.9% m/m decline in vehicle fuel prices due to lower global oil prices [1] - Core CPI inflation increased to 0.9% oya, reflecting a 0.1% m/m uptick, indicating modest gains in other categories such as clothing (+0.2% m/m), household services (+0.2%), and medical care (+0.4%) [1][4] Producer Price Index (PPI) - PPI rose by 0.1% m/m in August, marking the first sequential gain in 14 months, with the annual PPI deflation rate narrowing to 2.9% oya [2][4] - Consumer goods PPI fell by 1.7% oya, while producer goods PPI dropped by 3.2% oya, indicating slower declines in mining, raw materials, and manufacturing [2] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to government anti-involution efforts aimed at promoting orderly production and price competition, with notable reductions in price declines for coal processing (10.3 percentage points), ferrous metal smelting (6.0), and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing (2.8) [2][4] Economic Outlook - The sequential uptick in PPI is seen as encouraging, but broad-based reflation is expected to take time due to the modest and lagged impact of anti-involution measures [3][4] - The sustainability of recent producer price gains in upstream raw materials and new economy sectors remains uncertain, with limited spillover effects to other sectors [6] - CPI inflation is projected to hover around 0% in the coming months, influenced by persistent food price weakness and a domestic supply-demand imbalance [6][4] Additional Insights - The government's anti-involution efforts are expected to be data-dependent and moderate, considering the broader industry scope and the higher share of non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) [5][4] - The macroeconomic environment is fragile, particularly with ongoing weakness in the housing market, which may limit the effectiveness of policy measures [5][4] Conclusion - The current economic indicators suggest a cautious outlook for both CPI and PPI in China, with ongoing deflationary pressures and a need for careful monitoring of government policies and market conditions to gauge future trends and potential investment opportunities.

Core Insights - In August, Liaoning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the national average, ranking 30th nationwide [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The average CPI from January to August fell by 0.2% compared to the same period last year, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the national average, ranking 21st nationwide [1] Year-on-Year Price Changes - In August, the prices of eight major categories of goods and services showed a trend of "four increases, three decreases, and one stable" [1] - Other goods and services increased by 9.1% - Daily necessities and services rose by 1.7% - Clothing prices increased by 1.4% - Education, culture, and entertainment prices rose by 0.5% - Medical care prices decreased by 0.3% - Transportation and communication prices fell by 2.7% - Food, tobacco, and alcohol prices decreased by 3.6% - Housing prices remained stable [1] Month-on-Month Price Changes - In August, the month-on-month price changes in the eight major categories of goods and services showed a trend of "two increases, three decreases, and three stable" [1] - Prices for transportation and communication, as well as education, culture, and entertainment, increased - Prices for medical care, clothing, and daily necessities and services decreased - Prices for other goods and services, food, tobacco, and alcohol, and housing remained stable [1]