Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of key economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics, which are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities [5][6][11]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released this week includes the March preliminary PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, as well as various consumer confidence indices and housing data [2][3][4][12][13]. Group 2: Recent Economic Data and Events Review - In the US, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction [5][10]. - February retail sales in the US were below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.6% [5][10]. - Industrial production in the US exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [5][10]. - The US housing market showed resilience with February's existing home sales at an annualized rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing the expected 3.95 million [5][10]. - Eurozone's February CPI was slightly below expectations at 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.6% [6][11]. - Japan's CPI for February was higher than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [6][11]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Review - The US economic activity index showed a slight decline, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week of March 15, down from 2.59% the previous week [5][13]. - In Germany, the economic activity index improved, with the WAI index rising to 0.3% [5][13]. - Retail sales in the US showed a minor year-on-year decline, with the Redbook retail sales index at 5.2% [7][16]. - Global flight numbers decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in travel demand [7][19]. - The US mortgage rate remained stable at 6.67%, with a slight decline in mortgage application indices [7][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - Initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations at 223,000, indicating stable employment conditions [7][24]. - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1% [7][27]. - US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.94 per gallon, reflecting minimal fluctuations in fuel costs [7][27]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with indices rising to 0.301 and 1.381 respectively [7][29][31]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed signs of easing, with slight narrowing in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][32]. - Long-term bond yield spreads indicated a narrowing between US and Japanese bonds, while spreads between US and Eurozone bonds widened [7][35].

Economic Growth - The domestic economic growth momentum is steadily improving, with the Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remaining positive and Index B continuing to rise[1] - Investment sector sentiment is improving, while consumer and real estate sectors show little change; investment performance is relatively strong[1] - Seasonal comparison indicates that Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly after the Spring Festival, with this week's standardized increase at 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Asset Prices and Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; a mean reversion suggests that the ten-year government bond yield is expected to rise and the Shanghai Composite Index to fall in the upcoming week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of March 21, 2025, is 2.47%, while the actual yield is 1.87%, indicating a deviation of 61 basis points[18] - The predicted Shanghai Composite Index for the same week is 3,174.98, lower than the actual value of 3,411.22[19] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices have both slightly decreased, with March CPI food expected to be -1.0%, non-food at -0.1%, and overall CPI at -0.3%[2] - The domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain flat month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to -2.1%[2]

Group 1 - The overall CPI for February showed a moderate decline, which alleviated concerns about recession and did not lead to a re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, with the market still expecting a rate cut in June [1][3][28] - Gold and silver prices increased, with COMEX gold rising by 2.6% and silver by 4.41%, while SHFE gold and silver also saw gains of 2.28% and 3.85% respectively [2][16] - The copper market continued its upward trend, with COMEX copper prices increasing by 3.59% and SHFE copper by 2.72%, driven by supply tightness and production cuts from domestic smelting enterprises [2][5][28] Group 2 - The U.S. government faced another "shutdown" crisis, but a temporary funding bill was signed, leading to a surge in gold prices, which broke the $3,000 mark due to declining U.S. sovereign credit [4][14] - The copper concentrate market showed limited activity, with processing fees continuing to decline, and traders adopting a wait-and-see approach due to high copper prices [8][10] - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 670,000 ounces, while SHFE gold inventory remained stable, indicating a mixed supply situation in the precious metals market [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.7% in February due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with a mild upward trend in CPI remaining intact overall [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI rose by 0.5% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous month, influenced by the Spring Festival [1] - The year-on-year decline of 0.7% in February was primarily due to the Spring Festival occurring in January this year, while it was in February last year [1] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, the CPI in February would have increased by 0.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Price Influences - The prices of fresh vegetables decreased by 12.6% year-on-year in February, contributing to a 0.31 percentage point drop in the CPI [1] - The prices of fuel and new energy vehicles fell by 5% and 6% respectively, together impacting the CPI by approximately 0.16 percentage points [1] - Overall, the mild upward trend in CPI remains unchanged despite the recent fluctuations [1]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券⾸席经济学家 贾东旭 ⾼级宏观分析师 联系⼈： 企业端同样显现谨慎态度，1-2⽉中⻓贷合计同⽐少增6000亿元，PPI持续收缩制约投资意愿。 尽管1⽉ 单⽉企业中⻓贷呈现⾼增态势，但2⽉数据印证该趋势难以为继。PPI持续处于收缩区间压缩企业盈利空 间，叠加外部不确定性，企业资本开⽀保持观望姿态。 曙光初现：2⽉社融增速已获财政融资放量⽀撑，居⺠资产结构调整显露积极信号。 但化债资⾦到位滞 后（2⽉财政存款同⽐多增16374亿）与信贷需求疲软显⽰复苏基础尚不牢固。更加积极的财政政策或将 有效打破当前预期偏弱的循环格局。随着"加⼤⽀出强度、加快⽀出进度"的财政政策加速落地，预计社 融将保持稳中有升，财政资⾦直达实体有望改善微观主体现⾦流，进⽽推动信贷企稳。 常规跟踪：信贷同⽐少增，社融同⽐多增。 2⽉新增信贷10100亿，同⽐少增4400亿，边际拖累主要源于企业中⻓贷。 居⺠部⻔贷款下降3891亿， 同⽐少减2016亿，其中短贷减少2741亿，同⽐少减2127亿，中⻓贷减少1150亿， ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 报告摘要 核心结论： 今年依然是"价比量重要"的一年，本篇报告重点关注 CPI 走势。我们提示， 由于基数效应 （去 年三季度高温多雨天气因素导致农产品涨幅明显超季节性，暖冬天气导致今年前 2 个月农产品涨幅低于季 节性） 以及食品 （近几年整体供给充足，典型是肉类） 和能源价格 （油价的外生性冲击） 的影响 ， 今 年 CPI 同比可能与市场目前预期存在预期差，但并不意味物价压力在边际增大，核心 CPI 依然是温和回升 的。需重点跟踪影响今年后期 CPI 的环比因子： 1 ）二季度的猪价； 2 ）三季度的农产品价格； 3 ）油价 的下行幅度； 4 ）核心 CPI 修复力度的强弱，其中 3 月份需求脉冲下的房租表现值得关注 。 影响今年 CPI 的因素之一：年初环比对新涨价因素的拖累较大 当年每个月的环比，影响的是当年当月及以后月份的新涨价因素，年初的环比对全年新涨价因素影响最 大。比如 2017 年、 2018 年、 2022 年， CPI 环比月均值都为 0.15% ...

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in inflation, employment, and financial conditions [2][4][10]. Group 1: Important Data Review - In February, the US PPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.3% and previous 3.5%, with a month-on-month change of 0% against an expected increase of 0.3% [9]. - The US CPI for February grew by 2.8% year-on-year, below the expected 2.9% and previous 3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [9]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for March rose to -2.9, significantly above the expected -8.4 and previous -12.7 [10]. - Germany's January exports fell by 2.5% month-on-month, contrary to the expected growth of 0.5% [10]. - Japan's 2024 Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth was revised down to 2.2%, below the expected 2.8% [10]. Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index increased to 2.65% for the week of March 8, up from 2.24% the previous week [13]. - The German WAI index rose to 0.51% for the week of March 9, compared to 0.24% the previous week [13]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate decreased to 5.7% for the week of March 8, down from 6.6% the previous week [14]. - The US mortgage application numbers increased, with the MBA market composite index rising to 269.3, an 11.2% week-on-week increase [15]. Group 4: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 220,000 for the week of March 8, down from 222,000 the previous week [16]. - Continuing claims also decreased to 1.87 million, compared to 1.90 million the previous week [16]. Group 5: Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index was 302.67 on March 14, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week [17]. - The US gasoline retail price was $2.95 per gallon on March 10, down 0.1% from the previous week [17]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US was 0.20 on March 14, down from 0.27 the previous week [18]. - The Eurozone's Bloomberg financial conditions index increased to 1.30, up from 1.17 the previous week [18]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed deterioration, with the yen and euro swap basis against the dollar decreasing [19]. Group 7: Bond Yield Spread - The 10-year bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone narrowed, with the US-EU spread at 135.6 basis points, down from 144.7 basis points the previous week [21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [51]. Core Insights - The Eurozone's investor confidence index saw a significant rebound in March, with the Sentix index rising to -2.9, surpassing expectations of -8.4 and the previous value of -12.7 [8]. - In the U.S., the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February was lower than expected, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an unexpected decline [7][9]. - The U.S. financial conditions are tightening, while the Eurozone is experiencing a loosening of financial conditions, as indicated by the Bloomberg financial conditions index [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Important Data Review - U.S. February PPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, below the expected 3.3% and previous 3.5% [7]. - Eurozone's investor confidence index rebounded significantly in March [8]. - Japan's GDP for Q4 2024 was slightly revised down [7]. 2. Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. WEI index rose to 2.65% for the week of March 8, up from 2.24% the previous week [14]. - Germany's WAI index increased to 0.51% for the week of March 9, compared to 0.24% the previous week [14]. 3. Demand - U.S. retail sales growth, as measured by the Redbook index, decreased to 5.7% year-on-year from 6.6% the previous week [17]. - Mortgage rates in the U.S. rose slightly to 6.65%, while mortgage applications increased by 11.2% [20]. 4. Employment - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 220,000, down from 222,000 the previous week [22]. 5. Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index was 302.67, showing a 0.1% decline from the previous week [25]. - U.S. gasoline prices decreased to $2.95 per gallon, down 0.1% from the previous week [25]. 6. Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg financial conditions index for the U.S. was 0.20, down from 0.27 the previous week, indicating tightening conditions [28]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has worsened, with the yen and euro swap basis against the dollar showing declines [28]. 7. Bond Yield Spread - The 10-year bond yield spread between Germany and Portugal narrowed, with spreads of -49.3bp and -106.0bp respectively [33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The CPI growth rate for February 2025 is -0.7%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from January 2025, indicating a significant decline due to the timing of the Spring Festival [20][24] - The PPI for February 2025 decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing insufficient demand and economic pressure, despite a slight narrowing of the decline compared to January [20][51] - The report suggests that the current economic structure adjustments and insufficient effective demand require further stimulus to stabilize the economy [51][64] Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year growth rate for February 2025 is -0.7%, down from 0.5% in January, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [20][24] - The decline in CPI is attributed to the Spring Festival's timing and a warm winter that increased the supply of fruits and vegetables, suppressing price increases [26][28] - Food prices showed a significant year-on-year decline, with fresh vegetables down 12.6% and overall food prices down 3.3% [29][32] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline of 2.2% in February 2025 is a slight improvement from January, indicating persistent low demand and economic pressure [20][51] - The report highlights a divergence in price trends between traditional industries and high-tech sectors, with black metal prices down 10.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 9.5% [51][64] - The PPI for production materials decreased by 2.6%, while living materials saw a decline of 1.2%, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [56][59] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential increase in CPI in 2025 due to "stabilizing growth and promoting consumption" policies, but warns of persistent economic pressures and insufficient internal demand [64] - The PPI may see slight increases in 2025 due to global economic recovery and low base effects, but domestic economic pressures remain significant [64]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on expanding domestic demand as a key priority in the government's work report, suggesting a potential for policy implementation to accelerate in the future [3][16]. Core Insights - February CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, which was weaker than the market expectation of -0.4%, while PPI fell by 2.2%, also below the expected -2.1% [3][11]. - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by the high base effect from the previous year due to the Spring Festival, with a new impact contributing a 0.1% increase when excluding this effect [11][16]. - The report highlights that food prices were weaker than seasonal trends, with a notable decrease in fresh vegetable prices by 12.6% year-on-year [11][12]. - The government aims to address insufficient domestic demand and weak consumption by implementing policies promptly to stimulate recovery in demand and a moderate rebound in prices [3][16]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - February CPI's year-on-year decline was driven by the Spring Festival's timing and a high base from the previous year, with food prices showing a significant drop [11][12]. - The report notes that the service CPI and core CPI both turned negative for the first time in four years, indicating weak demand and consumption [15][16]. PPI Analysis - February PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.2% was attributed to seasonal factors, abundant coal supply, and fluctuations in international oil prices [17]. - The report suggests a potential for short-term PPI recovery due to proactive fiscal policies and improving funding rates for construction projects [17][18].