24 及25Q1 毛销差保持积极态势 公司24 年毛利率为29.4%，同比基本持平（虽然各项业务毛利率下降，但由于低毛利率的其他业务收入 占比下降，整体毛利率相对稳定）。而25Q1毛利率同比-1.2pct。24 年公司期间费用率同比-1.77pct，主 要由于销售费用率同比-2pct（渠道营销模式变化），而25Q1 期间费用同比-2.5pct，公司毛销差保持积 极态势。 内销高占比，且高股息锚定长期价值 考虑到其他业务拖累，我们下调了收入预期，考虑到准则调整及线上均价波动，我们下调了毛利率预 期，预测25-27 年EPS 为6.23/6.71/7.12 元（25-26年分别下调10%/14%），截至2025/4/25，Wind 可比公 司25 年一致预期平均PE 为11x，考虑到公司外销占比低(24 年仅15%)、高股息防御属性强，关税波动背 景下具备优势，但市场仍存多元业务拓展偏慢担忧，给予公司25 年9xPE 估值，对应目标价56.07 元 （前值58.74 元，基于25 年8.5xPE）。 公司披露2024 年报及25 一季报：2024 年实现总营收1900.38 亿元，同比-7.31%，归母净利321 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.955 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.65%, with core business revenue reaching 2.669 billion yuan, up 19.58%, both achieving record highs since its listing [1] - In Q1 2025, the company continued its strong growth trajectory, with core business revenue of 525 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.92%, demonstrating resilience against industry cycles [1][2] - The company’s net profit for Q1 2025 was 9.49 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 55.88%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items rose by 91.87% to 9.42 million yuan [2] Revenue Performance - The dual drivers of "e-sports + domestic innovation" have provided the company with growth resilience, while the exploration of new product categories like smart glasses has created new growth momentum [1] - Despite the impact of the GeForce RTX 50 series product launch on consumer purchasing decisions, the company maintained revenue growth in Q1 2025 [1] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company faced foreign exchange losses due to the appreciation of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, amounting to an increase of 7.9346 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities surged by 17,993.88% year-on-year to approximately 249 million yuan, indicating strong self-sustaining capabilities [2] Market Outlook - The upcoming end of support for Windows 10, the proliferation of AI models like DeepSeek, and the domestic innovation strategy are expected to drive the PC industry into a "super replacement cycle" [3] - The explosion of the AI smart glasses market is anticipated to open a new incremental growth avenue for the company [3] - The company is expected to continue exceeding performance expectations, supported by its dual strategy and commitment to embracing globalization and leading the AI technology revolution [3]

Employment Support - The government will accelerate the implementation of policies such as job retention subsidies, guarantee loans, and employment subsidies to stabilize the employment situation [2][4] - Five key measures will be taken to ensure overall employment stability, including expanding job opportunities in new production sectors and basic public services [2] - There will be a focus on supporting key groups in employment, including migrant workers and those affected by tariffs [2] Foreign Trade Stability - The government plans to provide substantial financial support to foreign trade enterprises and reduce their domestic sales costs [5] - A comprehensive policy package has been introduced to help foreign trade companies expand into domestic markets and improve financial and service support [5] - Measures will include enhancing export credit insurance and facilitating low-cost financing for small and micro foreign trade enterprises [5] Consumption Promotion - The government will implement policies to enhance consumer spending, including a "trade-in" program for consumer goods and reforms in the automotive sector [6][7] - A series of measures will be introduced to boost service consumption, including a "service consumption season" to promote diverse service offerings [7] Effective Investment Expansion - The government aims to accelerate investments in consumer infrastructure and social sectors, with an estimated annual investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan [8] - Key initiatives will include the implementation of a "doubling" action for charging facilities and support for urban parking space construction [8] - A national venture capital guidance fund will be established to promote the integration of artificial intelligence with key industries [8] Stable Development Environment - The government will enhance financial support for the real economy and stabilize the capital market and real estate sector [9] - Monetary policy tools will be utilized to ensure liquidity and support for employment, foreign trade, consumption, and investment [9] - Specific measures will include increasing long-term loan issuance and supporting financing for key sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and education [9]

6 4 1 近日，长城证券首席经济学家汪毅在"上证·首席讲坛"发表演讲并接受上海证券报记者专访。关于提振 消费市场，汪毅表示，可通过优化收入再分配机制、完善社会保障体系、稳定房地产市场与资本市场等 方式，提升居民收入水平，从而激发消费潜力。 多维发力促消费长效增长 今年以来，"以旧换新"政策力度更大、补贴范围更广，成效显著。 国家统计局数据显示，今年一季度社会消费品零售总额12.47万亿元，同比增长4.6%，比2024年全年加 快1.1个百分点。在"以旧换新"政策推动下，绿色智能产品销售快速增长。商品零售额同比增长4.6%， 增速比2024年全年加快1.4个百分点。限额以上单位商品零售额增长5.8%，增速比2024年全年加快3.1个 百分点，其中通讯器材、文化办公用品、家电、家具零售额同比分别增长26.9%、21.7%、19.3%和 18.1%。 此外，今年一季度乘用车零售量同比增长5.8%，其中新能源乘用车零售量增长36.4%，渗透率达 47.2%。3月，部分重点监测企业智能家居产品销售额同比增长超10%。 汪毅 ◎记者 高志刚 稳楼市还有不少"招数" "当然，更为关键的是居民财产性收入，这主要涉及资本市场 ...

Group 1 - In the first quarter of 2025, Shenzhen's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 240.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with an acceleration of 1.4 percentage points compared to January-February [1] - The city has implemented over 470 promotional activities to boost consumption, including significant success in the "trade-in" policy, which has led to the opening of 258 new stores and a surge in consumer activity [1][2] - The "trade-in" policy has shown remarkable results, with household appliances and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 59.3%, and wearable smart devices by 53.1% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The automotive sector has also experienced a peak in sales, with over 300,000 BYD electric vehicles sold in January, marking a 49.16% year-on-year increase [3] - As of April 21, 2025, the "trade-in" program has driven the sale of 39,000 vehicles, generating sales worth 9.77 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - The integration of commerce, culture, and tourism has led to the launch of over 470 promotional events, creating new consumption models such as "Tech+" and "Park+Business Circle" [4] - The "Tech+" consumption model has gained popularity, with significant public engagement during events like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Garden Competition, which attracted 1.283 million visitors [4] Group 4 - The first quarter of 2025 saw the addition of 258 new flagship and concept stores in Shenzhen, driven by the "first launch economy" and innovative consumption scenarios [5] - Online retail in Shenzhen has maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in the first three months of 2025 [5] Group 5 - Shenzhen has seen a surge in international tourism, with 48.112 million visitors in the first quarter, including over 8 million international tourists, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [6] - The city has enhanced its service environment for international visitors, including the introduction of AI translation devices and a streamlined tax refund process for foreign tourists [6] Group 6 - Policies aimed at improving cross-border consumption have been implemented, including convenient customs clearance and special offers for Hong Kong visitors [7]

Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, Shenzhen's GDP reached 895.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - The primary industry added value was 0.0486 billion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while the secondary industry added value was 295.14 billion yuan, increasing by 3.7%, and the tertiary industry added value was 599.42 billion yuan, up by 6.0% [1] Consumer Market - Shenzhen's total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 2025 amounted to 240.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, accelerating by 1.4 percentage points compared to January-February [1] - The "trade-in" program has positively impacted consumption, with over 5.35 million units of cars and digital appliances sold, generating sales exceeding 19 billion yuan, including 30,000 cars sold through this program, contributing 8.3 billion yuan in sales, with 70% of new vehicles being electric [1] Industrial Sector - The industrial added value of Shenzhen's above-scale industries grew by 4.2% year-on-year in Q1, with a 1.6 percentage point acceleration compared to January-February [2] - Notable growth in high-tech products included civil drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment, with production increases of 48.2%, 40.1%, and 38% respectively [2] Foreign Trade - Shenzhen's total import and export volume in Q1 2025 was 990.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, although it remained the second highest for the same period historically [3] - In March, there was a significant recovery in foreign trade, with total imports and exports reaching 387.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [3] Trade Policies - In April, Shenzhen introduced ten policies to stabilize foreign trade, including support for enterprises participating in overseas exhibitions and domestic market expansion, with financial assistance up to 600,000 yuan for exhibition fees [3] - The city encourages the expansion of imports of key products, providing interest subsidies for advanced equipment and technology imports, as well as support for energy, bulk commodities, agricultural products, and consumer goods [3] - Specific measures to strengthen cross-border e-commerce include support for brand development, compliance, and logistics [3]

Group 1: Consumption Trends - March retail sales data for consumer goods exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in March and a cumulative growth of 4.6% for the first quarter[14] - Price reductions in essential goods, particularly in food and daily necessities, have led to improved sales volumes, with all price-reduced categories achieving positive year-on-year sales growth for three consecutive months[4] - The learning tablet market saw a significant increase, with sales volume up 29.4% and sales revenue up 15.8% in Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies and promotional efforts[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The first quarter GDP growth was 5.4%, consistent with the previous quarter and better than the 5% growth for the entire year of 2024[18] - The cumulative fixed asset investment growth rate was 4.2% in March, with significant contributions from transportation infrastructure and equipment upgrades[18] - The social financing scale increased by 58,879 billion yuan in March, a year-on-year increase of 10,544 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in credit availability[22] Group 3: Market Risks - Potential risks include fluctuating statements regarding tariffs from the U.S., which could impact market stability[23] - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariffs may lead to global growth slowdowns and overcapacity risks[23]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Huaye is experiencing significant growth in its operating performance for 2024, driven by the recovery in the downstream plastic machinery industry, supportive government policies, and strong partnerships with major manufacturers [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The plastic machinery accessory industry is a crucial segment within the plastic machinery sector, and Zhejiang Huaye is one of the early entrants in this field [2]. - The company has been recognized as one of the top five enterprises in the plastic machinery auxiliary and accessory industry from 2014 to 2019 and has been ranked among the top seven from 2023 to 2024 [2]. - Market share for Zhejiang Huaye in the plastic machinery screw and barrel products has increased from 8% in 2020 to 12.5% in 2023, maintaining a leading position in the market [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - In the 2024 annual report, Zhejiang Huaye reported a revenue of 892 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.20% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 92.94 million yuan, marking a 32.21% increase compared to the previous year [4]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 90.72 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 37.02% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company emphasizes the improvement of process technology and the development of new products, having accumulated advanced process technologies and experience over the years [1]. - Key technologies include multi-axis linkage screw polishing technology and wear-resistant layer production technology for barrels and screws, which enhance production efficiency and environmental sustainability [1]. - The company has developed a patented method for producing wear-resistant layers for screws and barrels, contributing to higher casting qualification rates [1]. Group 4: Market Position and Partnerships - Zhejiang Huaye has successfully entered the supply chain of major global plastic forming equipment manufacturers, supplying products not only to the domestic market but also to countries like Canada, the USA, Germany, India, and Japan [3]. - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with numerous leading manufacturers, both domestically and internationally [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [4] Core Views - The company achieved total operating revenue of 60.514 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.825 billion yuan, up 160.36% year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 15.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.06%, and a net profit of 0.247 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 138.2% [4] - The company is the largest global producer of modified plastics, with a production capacity of 3.72 million tons per year, and achieved a sales volume of 2.5515 million tons in 2024, up 20.78% year-on-year [6][10] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with revenue from overseas operations reaching 8.792 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.73% [6][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 60.514 billion yuan, with significant contributions from modified plastics (32.075 billion yuan), materials trading (12.371 billion yuan), green petrochemical products (11.436 billion yuan), and new materials (3.654 billion yuan) [6] - The gross profit margins for these segments were 22.07%, 0.41%, -6.36%, and 15.83% respectively [6] - The company expects net profits to reach 1.451 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 75.95% [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its competitive advantages in modified plastics to capture opportunities in emerging fields such as smart driving and recycling [6][10] - The company is enhancing its local supply and service capabilities in overseas markets, significantly increasing its market share in regions like the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia [6][10] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.069 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.460 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.6 and 11.4 [8][10] - The company is also focusing on the domestic production of high-end materials, aligning with national strategies for industrial development [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [4] Core Views - The company achieved total operating revenue of 60.514 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.825 billion yuan, up 160.36% year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 15.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.06%, and a net profit of 0.247 billion yuan, up 138.2% year-on-year [4] - The company is the largest global producer of modified plastics, with a production capacity of 3.72 million tons per year, and achieved a sales volume of 2.5515 million tons in 2024, a growth of 20.78% year-on-year [6][10] - The company is expanding its overseas business, with revenue from overseas operations reaching 8.792 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.73% [6][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 60.514 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.825 billion yuan, with significant growth in various business segments [4][6] - The company forecasts revenues of 69.491 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.451 billion yuan, indicating continued growth [8] Business Segments - The modified plastics segment generated 32.075 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 53% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18.95% [6] - The green petrochemical segment reduced losses, contributing 11.436 billion yuan to revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 22.30% [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its competitive advantages in modified plastics to capture opportunities in emerging fields such as smart driving and recycling [6][10] - The company is enhancing its local supply and service capabilities in overseas markets, significantly increasing its market share [6][10]