财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-12-15 需求利好支撑生猪，玉米盘面高位震荡 研究员 姓名：田金莲 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 7 页 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货低位反弹，H2603 合约报收 11325 元/吨，较前 周结算价上涨 1.75%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.53 元/公斤，环比上 涨 0.02 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 12 月 12 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-163.34 元/头，环比增加 4.35 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-240.69 元/头，环比增加 18.7 元/头；猪粮比价为 4.91，周环 比下降 0.04。 上周全国生猪现货价格先跌后稳，养殖场出栏量逐步增加，二 育散户大猪陆续出栏，同时部分地区的猪场出现点状散发疫情，一 定程度上加快了局部出栏节奏，生猪价格偏弱调整。下半周随着价 格下跌，散户认卖度降低，叠加南方腌腊陆续开启，屠宰量小幅增 加，生猪价格止跌趋稳。目前来看，供应维持正常出栏节奏，部分 地区二育补栏积极性提升，叠加 ...

Group 1: Sugar Investment Rating Not provided Core View The sugar market is expected to remain weak next week due to a lack of positive factors and weak price rebound. The supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices. The increase in supply has led to a decline in futures prices and a subsequent drop in basis sugar prices. [2] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar futures contracts have generally declined, while the ICE raw sugar主力 has increased slightly. The main contract's open interest has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remains unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have decreased, and the basis has changed. The price of imported Brazilian sugar has increased, and the spread between imported and domestic sugar has also changed. [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar have decreased year - on - year, and the national sales rate has declined, while the sales rate in Guangxi has increased. Industrial inventories in most regions have decreased, except for an increase in Yunnan. Sugar imports have increased. [2] Group 2: Cotton Investment Rating Not provided Core View Internationally, US cotton maintains a volatile market. Domestically, the market expects a decline in Xinjiang's planting area next year, with a long - term optimistic outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, and cotton prices face some upward pressure. [5] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of some cotton futures contracts has declined slightly, and the open interest of the main contract has decreased. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts has increased. [5] - **Spot Market**: Some spot prices have increased, and the basis has also changed. [5] - **Industry Situation**: The shortage has increased, industrial inventories have increased slightly, imports have decreased, and the inventory in bonded areas has decreased. The inventory of the textile industry has decreased year - on - year, and the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth have changed. Cotton outbound shipments have increased, while the processing profit of spinning enterprises has decreased. Retail sales and export volumes in the textile and clothing industries have increased. [5] Group 3: Corn Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current grain sales progress is relatively fast, but the effective market circulation of grain is limited. The price is relatively stable in the short term due to factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the supply pressure restricts the upward space of corn prices. [7] Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2601 contract at Jinzhou Port has declined slightly, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 5 spread remains unchanged. The price at Shekou Port remains stable, and the north - south trade profit remains unchanged. The arrival - at - port duty - paid price has decreased slightly, and the import profit has increased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased significantly, the open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract has increased slightly, and the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remain unchanged. The basis has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, the 01 - contract spread between starch and corn has increased, and the profit of Shandong starch has increased. The open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [7] Group 4: Oils Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, there is a risk of further decline after breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Dalian palm oil futures are in a weak and volatile adjustment. For soybean oil, the potential reduction in US biodiesel production is negative for CBOT soybean oil, but the rebound of BMD palm oil provides some support. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the decline in basis quotes may be limited in the short term. [10] Summary by Directory - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil has declined, and the basis has changed. The import cost has decreased, and the import profit has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [10] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil remains unchanged, and the basis has increased. The supply of domestic factories is sufficient, and the demand is limited. [10] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil has increased slightly, and the basis has also changed. [10] Group 5: Pigs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is stable, and the downward support has increased with the increase in southern curing demand. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market due to factors such as the increase in the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening, and the overall supply pressure is still large. [12] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of some pig futures contracts have increased, and the 3 - 5 spread has changed. The open interest of the main contract has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [12] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in different regions have changed, and the slaughter volume of sample points has increased. The weekly prices of pork strips remain unchanged, while the prices of piglets and sows have decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight has decreased slightly, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and purchased pigs have increased. The number of fertile sows has decreased. [12] Group 6: Eggs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg market is expected to be in a state of oversupply this week. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to insufficient terminal demand. [15] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg futures contracts have declined, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 2 spread has decreased. [15] - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the producing areas has decreased slightly, the price of egg - laying chicken seedlings has decreased, the price of culled chickens has increased, the egg - to - feed ratio has increased, and the breeding profit has increased. [15] - **Industry Situation**: The number of culled chickens has decreased slightly, and the number of newly - laying hens is still low. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the inventories at all links in the industry chain need to be digested. The terminal consumption is lower than expected, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has declined. [15] Group 7: Meal Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans lack trading highlights, and the market is not optimistic about the medium - and long - term price of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, but there is a sentiment of supporting prices in the market, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread. [17] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal has increased, the futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has increased. The import crushing profit has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal remains unchanged, the futures price has increased, and the basis has decreased. The import crushing profit has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts is zero. [17] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has increased. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased slightly, and the basis has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of CBOT soybeans closed lower on December 12, 2025, mainly due to concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand and the upcoming harvest of Brazilian soybeans, which triggered a wave of long - position liquidation [1][3]. - The DCE soybean meal may follow the adjustment of the US soybean price, and the DCE soybeans are in a state of adjustment and oscillation [1]. - The trend intensity of both soybean meal and soybeans is -1, indicating a bearish outlook on the report - day's daytime main - contract futures price fluctuations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of DCE soybeans 2601 was 4138 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan (-0.70%) during the day session and also down 29 yuan (-0.70%) during the night session. The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2770 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (+0.58%) during the day session and down 8 yuan (-0.29%) during the night session. The closing price of CBOT soybeans 01 was 1076.25 cents/bushel, down 17.25 cents (-1.58%), and the closing price of CBOT soybean meal 01 was 302 dollars/short ton, down 0.1 dollars (-0.03%) [1]. - **Spot Data**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3070 - 3130 yuan/ton, up 10 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day. In the East China region, the price was 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 yuan. In the South China region, the price was 3090 - 3190 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan. Different regions and time - periods had different basis levels compared to futures contracts [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.6 tons/day on the previous trading day, compared with 12.85 tons/day on the day before the previous trading day. The inventory was 104.55 tons/week on the day before the previous trading day, and the data for the previous trading day was not available [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 12, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders were worried that the US soybean export window was about to close, and the upcoming harvest of Brazilian soybeans led to a long - position liquidation. Although the US Department of Agriculture confirmed a sale of 13.2 tons of US soybeans to China, analysts were concerned that US soybean export demand might dry up as South American soybean supplies increased [1][3]. - The weather outlook in South America is "nearly ideal" for crops in Brazil and Argentina. Brazil has near - normal or above - normal rainfall and no extreme heat, and in Argentina, there may be showers and thunderstorms starting from December 19, with more regular rainfall later. If the rainy weather pattern persists until the first half of January, private institutions may raise their South American production forecasts [3].

2025.12.15-12.19 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约运行于2882至3330的横盘整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量186万吨，表观消费量211万吨，主要钢厂库存145万 吨，社会库存542万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力合约运行于横盘整理区间。 2 整理阶段可考虑网格交易策略，系统策略建议：天线3330，地线 2882，网格间距32，网格数量14。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入横盘整理区间，可考虑实施大网格交易策略。 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段建议观望等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相 ...

宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着前期利多因素逐渐消化，受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期 货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库 存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。同时下 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20251215 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.534 | 5. 586 | -52 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5,540 | 5.520 | +20 | | | | 成交量(手) | 482, 936 | 833.491 | -350, 555 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 204. 480 | 204. 699 | -219 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 198, 979 | 198, 115 | +864 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -18, 685 | -13, 750 | -4.935 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 66 | 14 | +52 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -884 | -936 | +52 | | | 月差 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The demand for PX is seasonally weakening, but the supply remains tight, and it is in a high - level volatile market; PTA is also in a high - level volatile market; for MEG, the unplanned load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below [1]. - For PX, the demand is comprehensively weakening, and one should be vigilant against the negative feedback caused by the unexpected decline in polyester operation rate, and avoid chasing high prices. For PTA, although the cost - end PX supply is tight, the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so the upside space of PTA is limited. For MEG, the price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, so do not chase short positions in the 01 contract [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Dynamics - Asian xylene prices declined, with Platts assessing Asian paraxylene UNV1/China and FOB Korea at 830.67 dollars/ton and 809.67 dollars/ton respectively on December 12, both down 5 dollars/ton compared to the previous day [4]. - South Korean PX exports to the US increased significantly in early December, and more shipments are expected in the coming months, which may push up prices and tighten the regional supply. About 45,000 tons of PX cargo was loaded to the US in early December, while there was no PX export to the US in November, and the export from January to October was 154,000 tons, compared with 272,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [6]. - South Korea's GS Caltex shut down its No. 3 xylene series with an annual capacity of 550,000 tons on December 8 due to poor economic performance, and the restart date is undetermined [6]. Futures and Spot Prices | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6758 | 4674 | 3627 | 6074 | 437.6 | | Change | - 58 | 10 | 28 | - 48 | - 2.1 | | Change Rate | - 0.85% | 0.21% | 0.78% | - 0.78% | - 0.48% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 58 | - 60 | - 84 | - 54 | - 0.4 | | Month Spread (Change) | 4 | - 2 | 24 | 16 | 1.4 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 830.67 dollars/ton | 4610 yuan/ton | 3602 yuan/ton | 548.75 dollars/ton | 62.09 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | - 5 dollars/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | - 5.5 dollars/ton | 0.1 dollars/barrel | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 281.42 dollars/ton | 185.2 yuan/ton | 256.44 yuan/ton | 123.25 yuan/ton | - 4.23 dollars/ton | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 9.25 dollars/ton | 15.86 yuan/ton | - 14.97 yuan/ton | 6.95 yuan/ton | 0.11 dollars/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1; PTA trend intensity: - 1; MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The demand is comprehensively weakening. The polyester industry chain profits continue to concentrate on the PX link, but the weakening demand limits the upside space. The blending - into - gasoline logic has ended. The domestic operation rate is 88.1% (- 0.1%), with a weekly output of 740,000 tons. The Asian operation rate is 79.3% (+ 0.6%). The PXN is 282 dollars/ton and continues to expand. Operate in the 6550 - 7000 range, exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position, and exit the profit of the long PX and short PTA/BZ position [7]. - **PTA**: The cost - end PX supply is tight, but the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so the upside space is limited. The PTA capacity is generally in excess, and the processing fee is continuously compressed. Exit the profit of the 01 contract processing fee compression position. Operate the single - side position in the 4500 - 4800 range, exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position, and exit the profit of the long PX and short PTA/BZ position [8]. - **MEG**: The price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, and some factories have shut down due to business reasons. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved. Do not chase short positions in the 01 contract. The low profit has led to a large - scale decline in the operation enthusiasm of facilities. The ethylene - based facilities, such as Sanjiang, have reduced the load, and some facilities are shut down. The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet has slightly improved [8].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, the A - share market showed a mixed performance across different sectors. Some sectors like stock index futures rose, while others such as coke, coal, and some commodities faced downward pressure. The market is influenced by various factors including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and external news [1][2][3]. - Different commodities are in different supply - demand situations. For example, the soybean market has abundant supply in the short - term but faces long - term supply pressure; the pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand; and the copper market has support from macro and supply - demand factors but also faces callback risks [5][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 12, the three major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41% to 3889.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.97% to 3194.36 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2092.2 billion yuan, an increase of 235.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4580.95, a rise of 28.77 compared to the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 12, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1548.6, a decrease of 51.0 compared to the previous day. The weighted coking coal index remained weak, closing at 999.7 yuan, a decrease of 34.5 compared to the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the first - round reduction of spot purchase prices has been implemented, supply is stable, but demand may weaken due to potential steel mill production cuts. The second - round price reduction has started, and coking enterprises maintain high production due to improved profitability. For coking coal, affected by Mongolia's plan to increase coal exports next year, it dropped significantly on the 11th. The supply is tight, but the Mongolian coal port's customs clearance has recovered to a high level, and the market trading sentiment is cold [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of short - term technical indicators, short - sellers closed their positions, pushing up the US sugar price on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly higher. As of the week ending November 18, speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,860 lots to 201,910 lots [4]. Rubber - Affected by Thailand's rubber price - stabilizing measures, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on Friday. As of December 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 12324 tons to 105542 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 11460 tons to 56990 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 604 tons to 61689 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2218 tons to 59573 tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - Multiple institutions estimate that the soybean production in South America is still at a historically high level. The sowing of Argentine soybeans is 58% complete, and the crop quality is fair. The US Department of Agriculture estimates Brazil's and Argentina's soybean production at 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November. - On December 12, the M2605 main contract of domestic bean meal closed at 2770 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.73%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil mills have a high crushing volume. However, the extension of customs clearance time and the pre - holiday stocking of feed enterprises have relieved the supply pressure of bean meal. The bean meal futures show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [5]. Live Pigs - On December 12, the LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11325 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.94%. The supply of live pigs in the market is abundant, which suppresses the futures price. Although the consumption of pork has improved marginally due to the drop in temperature and the start of the traditional curing season in the southwest region, the current consumption recovery is still mild, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. Shanghai Copper - On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of rising during the day and falling sharply at night, with a slight overall increase. The highest price was 94360 yuan/ton, and it closed at 91550 yuan/ton at night. Short - term macro - economic easing and supply - demand balance support the copper price, but high prices may suppress downstream demand and lead to profit - taking and callback risks [6]. Iron Ore - On December 12, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.33% to 760.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore increased, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season decreased, and the iron water production decreased further. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On December 12, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.34% to 2962 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the north was flat, and the terminal demand in the south was weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price shows a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Logs - On Friday, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 747.5, with the lowest price of 743.5, the highest price of 750, and closed at 749, with an increase of 10 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged compared to the previous day, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7][8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13905 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 142 lots compared to the previous day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [8]. Steel - The Central Economic Work Conference released positive macro - policy signals, which are conducive to market stability. However, the steel market is currently dominated by fundamentals. On the 12th, cold wave, snowstorm, and gale warnings were issued, and the demand for steel in the off - season further weakened. In the short term, the demand contraction may be greater than the supply, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the steel price shows a weak and volatile trend [8]. Alumina - As the pre - Spring Festival transportation capacity decreases and the delivery warehouse releases expired warehouse receipts, holders' inventory and sales pressure increase, leading to low - price sales. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises have sufficient raw material inventory, and although short - term production cuts may drive the price up, it is difficult to pass on the price increase to the end - market. The overall supply of ore is increasing, and the price is in a downward process. The alumina market has a supply - demand mismatch, the social inventory is accumulating, and the cost - side support is weakening [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and the output increase is limited. The transportation in the northwest is restricted, and the arrival at the consumption area is normal. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional off - season, the overall consumption has not declined significantly, the aluminum - water ratio remains high, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered a continuous accumulation stage. The current market is more affected by macro - expectations, with macro - factors being positive and fundamentals having both long and short factors [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product [2]. - Overall, the market shows a mixed trend, with some products in a high - level or low - level shock state, while others face supply - demand pressures or have short - term rebound opportunities. Summary by Product PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level shock market. Demand is seasonally weakening, but supply remains tight. The upside space is limited due to weakening demand and the end of the blending logic. The recommended operation range is 6550 - 7000, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][10]. - **PTA**: In a high - level shock market. The cost - side PX supply is tight, but polyester is accumulating inventory and incurring losses, so the upside space is limited. The recommended operation range is 4500 - 4800, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][11]. - **MEG**: The unexpected load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below. The price has reached the cost line of most production devices, and some factories have stopped operating [2][11]. Rubber - In a shock operation state. The price has a small increase, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is neutral [12]. Synthetic Rubber - The shock center moves up. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, and the supply of butadiene has decreased marginally. The industry is under pressure but supported by valuation [15][18]. Asphalt - Affected by the rising situation in Venezuela. The price shows a shock trend, with changes in production capacity utilization and inventory in different regions [19][30]. LLDPE - Unilateral decline, with limited basis strengthening. The futures price is under pressure, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure from high - capacity and weak demand needs to be concerned in the medium term [33][34]. PP - Under upstream selling pressure, with the price difference between powder and granular materials inverted. The cost support is limited, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Short - term rebound, but still under pressure later. Although the futures price rebounded due to macro and alumina factors, it is still in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the demand is difficult to support [40][41]. Pulp - In a wide - range shock state. The upward momentum comes from external cost and supply tightening expectations, while the downward pressure comes from high domestic inventory and weak terminal demand [44][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price has a slight decline, and the spot price shows mixed trends in different regions. The northern region is affected by snowfall [52]. Methanol - Shock rebound. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved. However, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a price limit above, while the cost provides support below [54][58]. Urea - Short - term shock operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The policy and cost form a support below, and there is a pressure level above [60][62]. Styrene - Short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in a shock state, with weak current situation and strong future expectations. The styrene downstream is in a high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit pattern [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is flat, with poor procurement enthusiasm [67][68]. LPG - Short - term shock, with a downward trend in the long term. The price shows a shock trend, and there are changes in PDH and other operating rates [71][72]. Propylene - Short - term narrow - range adjustment. The price and relevant operating rates show certain changes [72]. PVC - Low - level shock. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and there is a short - term rebound expectation, but the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [80][81]. Fuel Oil - The night - session rebounds, temporarily getting rid of the weak state. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than the high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounds slightly [83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Short - term sentiment is optimistic, and it is in a medium - term shock market. The freight rate index shows an upward trend, and there are changes in shipping capacity and schedules [85]. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Medium - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short short - fiber/bottle - chip positions. The futures prices are in a low - level shock state, and the spot prices show certain changes [94][95]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price is stable, and the market demand is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [97][98]. Pure Benzene - Short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and overseas market conditions [102][103].

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