1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market for ferrosilicon remains strong, with the futures price fluctuating widely. For silicomanganese, the price quotes of overseas mining companies have increased, also leading to wide - range fluctuations in the futures price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Ferrosilicon 2603 has a closing price of 5698, up 66 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 201,430 and an open interest of 224,722. Ferrosilicon 2605 has a closing price of 5674, up 62, a trading volume of 37,475, and an open interest of 65,353 [1] - Silicomanganese 2603 has a closing price of 5930, up 26, a trading volume of 144,766, and an open interest of 257,314. Silicomanganese 2605 has a closing price of 5942, up 16, a trading volume of 80,236, and an open interest of 247,341 [1] - **Spot Data**: - The aggregated price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5700 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump is 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: - The spot - futures price difference for ferrosilicon (spot - 03 futures) is - 348 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; for silicomanganese, it is - 230 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [1] - The near - far month price difference for ferrosilicon 2603 - 2605 is 24 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; for silicomanganese 2603 - 2605 is - 12 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [1] - The cross - variety price difference for silicomanganese 2603 - ferrosilicon 2603 is 232 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; for silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 is 268 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Spot Price**: - On January 12, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), in Ningxia is 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), etc. The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), in Inner Mongolia is 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars), 75 is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars). The northern quote of silicomanganese 6517 is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quote is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [2] - **Manganese Ore Price**: - Jupiter announced the February 2026 shipment price of manganese ore to China: the price of South African semi - carbonate lump with Mn36.5% (typical value) is 4.32 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.17 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month. South32's offer of South African semi - carbonate lump (typical value Mn36.9%) in February 2026 is 4.4 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.25 dollars/ton - degree; the offer of Australian lump (typical value Mn42%) is 5.1 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.25 dollars/ton - degree. Comilog's offer of Gabonese lump to China in February 2026 is 4.9 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.2 dollars/ton - degree. United Mining (CML)'s offer to China in February 2026 for Australian lump with Mn > 46%, Fe < 6%, SiO2 < 18% is 5.2 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.2 dollars/ton - degree [2][3] - **Steel Mill Procurement**: - A steel mill in Jiangsu set the price of silicomanganese in early January at 5935 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton from the end - December price; another steel mill in Jiangsu set the price at 5940 yuan/ton in January, with a procurement volume of 6000 tons, up 192 yuan/ton from the December price. On January 9, a steel mill in Jiangsu set the price of ferrosilicon at 5800 - 5830 yuan/ton, with a volume of 1500 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "High-level Volatility" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is in a narrow-range volatile adjustment. The futures are in a high-level consolidation, with general near-term buying at ports and some selling at high prices. Attention is on the shutdown of some coastal MTO plants. Inland upstream enterprises continue the initiative to reduce prices for shipment at the beginning of the week, with significant sales volume in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. However, due to weak downstream demand, the transfer of goods in the trading link is not smooth, and the trading atmosphere is stalemate. [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of methanol ports in China continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of methanol's main contract was 2,263 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,267 yuan/ton, up 22; the trading volume was 1,462,981 lots; the open interest of the 05 - contract was 863,591 lots, up 50,636; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,655 tons, unchanged; the trading value was 3,316,989 ten - thousand yuan, down 170,749. The basis was - 6, up 25; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 38, down 5. [2] - **Spot Market**: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,825 yuan/ton, up 10; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 15; the price in Shandong was 2,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 1,996.20, up 5.90. The spot price in Taicang was 2,260, up 18, and the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 1,837.5, up 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 8 cities had price increases ranging from 5 to 30 yuan/ton. [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 7, 2026, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 40,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory mainly accumulated in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign ships unloading during the period. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [5]

Group 1: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current market supply is sufficient, pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, and overall market transactions are light. Futures warehouse receipts are gradually increasing. Attention should be paid to the destocking progress of social inventory. In the short term, there is no obvious driver in the fundamentals, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts have different degrees of changes, with the 2609 contract rising 0.48%. The 5 - 7 spread increased by 11.11%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 21.88%. The position decreased by 0.36%, while the warehouse receipts increased by 11.77%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 23.25% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained stable or slightly decreased. The basis of special - grade red dates to the main contract increased by 82.61%, and that of first - grade red dates decreased by 4.00% [1]. Group 2: Apples Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory. With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, market activity has increased. In the medium - to - long term, good - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption. Other fruits with price advantages will squeeze the apple market, and the inventory pressure of ordinary apples is large. Therefore, the futures market will fluctuate at a high level, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main) contract decreased by 0.61%, and the 2610 contract increased by 0.11%. The basis increased by 3.96%, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 5.59%. The position decreased by 10.69% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The arrivals at several fruit wholesale markets increased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the factory - warehouse delivery profit decreased by 4.38% [3]. Group 3: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View ICE raw - sugar futures closed down, but the decline was limited by the weakening dollar. The market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - crushing season starting in April. The rainfall in Brazil is conducive to sugar - cane growth, and India's production is strong, while Thailand's crushing progress is slow. Overall, raw - sugar prices will fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, in line with market expectations. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, transactions are acceptable, and enterprises mainly sell at market prices. Considering the expected increase in production, the market is cautious, and sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 contracts decreased, and the ICE raw - sugar main contract decreased by 0.47%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 45.45%. The position of the main contract decreased by 0.33%, the warehouse receipts increased by 48.86%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 42.38% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Nanning and Kunming decreased or remained stable. The basis of Nanning decreased by 8.54%, and that of Kunming increased by 5.17%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased [10]. Group 4: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher. The January USDA supply - and - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lower production estimates. The drought index in the US cotton - growing areas continued to rise, but it is still early for sowing. USDA export sales have declined continuously, and export expectations may be lowered. It is expected that US cotton will maintain a low - level fluctuation pattern. Zhengzhou cotton is supported by the rigid demand of textile enterprises at low prices, but the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed. The fundamental positives have been fully priced in, and the adverse factors are increasing. Overall, the upward trend remains, but in the short term, cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 contracts decreased, and the ICE cotton main contract increased by 0.12%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8.11%. The position decreased by 3.66%, the warehouse receipts increased by 5.14%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 4.57% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang's 3128B cotton and CC Index 3128B decreased. The basis of 3128B to the 05 and 09 contracts decreased [13]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, industrial inventory decreased by 0.2%, imports increased by 33.3%, and bonded - area inventory increased by 15.8%. The inventory days of yarn and grey fabric changed, and the processing profit and retail sales of related products also changed [13]. Group 5: Corn and Corn Starch Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Snowfall in the Northeast affects the supply, and downstream pre - festival stocking supports prices. Futures price increases boost market sentiment, and prices in the producing areas and northern ports are strong. In North China, the grain - selling rhythm is stable, and prices fluctuate slightly. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises still have the intention to replenish stocks, but their acceptance of high - priced corn is limited. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and mainly conduct rolling replenishment. In terms of policies, the targeted auction of imported corn and the release of policy corn continue, but the scale is limited. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the rigid - demand stocking intention of downstream enterprises support the strong operation of corn prices. Attention should be paid to changes in farmers' selling attitudes and policy releases [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Corn Futures Market**: The price of the corn 2603 contract increased by 1.19%. The basis decreased by 25.37%, the 3 - 7 spread increased by 115.38%, and the position increased by 3.99%. The warehouse receipts increased by 4.16% [16]. - **Corn Starch Futures Market**: The price of the corn starch 2603 contract decreased by 1.22%. The basis decreased by 16.85%, the 3 - 7 spread increased by 38.30%, and the position increased by 1.46%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Group 6: Oils Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Palm Oil**: After the release of the MPOB report's negative news and the support of positive export data, crude palm - oil futures may rise to 4200 - 4250 ringgit. In the domestic market, affected by the synchronous rise of Malaysian palm oil and pre - festival stocking expectations, Dalian palm - oil futures may continue to strengthen and approach 9000 yuan [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report is bearish, CBOT soybeans will enter a stagnant - rise and callback phase, and CBOT soybean oil may follow. In the domestic market, the inventory of factory soybean oil is decreasing, but the USDA reports are bearish, and Dalian soybean oil will be dragged down, with the market testing the support at 7900 yuan [19]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The limited increase in international crude oil has weak support for the domestic vegetable - oil market. The visit of the Canadian prime minister has raised concerns about a loose supply of rapeseed oil. Rapeseed oil fell rapidly after reaching the 9000 - yuan mark. However, due to the unclear Sino - Canadian trade relationship and the digestion of negative news about Malaysian palm - oil inventory, the probability of large - scale short - selling is low, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation pattern. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high due to the delay in crushing [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of Y2605 and P2605 contracts changed. The positions and warehouse receipts of palm oil and soybean oil also had different degrees of changes [19]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jiangsu's first - grade soybean oil, Guangdong's 24 - degree palm oil, and Jiangsu's third - grade rapeseed oil changed, and the basis and import costs also changed [19]. Group 7: Pigs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Spot prices have returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig slaughter has decreased, while southern demand has dropped significantly, suppressing spot prices. Although there is still some second - fattening replenishment in some areas, due to the relatively high current pig prices, the overall enthusiasm is limited. The market expects an increase in supply. Although there is speculation about pre - Spring Festival consumption, it is expected that pigs will be slaughtered in mid - to - late January, and with the expected increase in supply from large - scale farms, the supply in January will be relatively abundant. The upward space for the phased futures market is limited, and it is recommended to short at high prices [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the main contracts of live pigs changed, the basis of the main contract was 1165, and the position increased by 0.84%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged [22]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of live pigs in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan changed. The slaughter volume, white - strip prices, and other indicators also had different degrees of changes [20][21]. Group 8: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profits, reducing farmers' enthusiasm for culling laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to the weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. Overall, the supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and procurement is increasing. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, festival stocking has started, but household consumption has not changed significantly. The increase in demand is mainly reflected in inventory turnover. After the recent price increase, there is short - term digestion pressure, and prices may decline slightly. Considering the relatively loose supply, it is expected that futures prices will fluctuate at a low level [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased. The basis increased by 59.63%, and the 3 - 4 spread decreased by 0.36% [23]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of egg - laying chicks, culled hens, and the egg - to - feed ratio increased. The breeding profit increased by 18.01% [23]. Group 9: Meal Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans are strong due to capital and sentiment. The market is looking forward to the USDA supply - and - demand report for new trading guidance. China's soybean - buying speed is fast, and the supply will be continuously replenished. The visit of Canada to China has brought positive signals, and the price of domestic rapeseed products has dropped, dragging down the soybean - meal market. The domestic spot market remains loose, and soybean and soybean - meal inventories are still at a high level. The expectation of a large number of auctions also suppresses the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low and the arrival rhythm is uncertain, the downside space of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policies. In the short term, the market sentiment is positive, and the market will fluctuate within a range [24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean contracts changed. The spreads between different contracts and the oil - meal ratios also changed [24]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jiangsu's soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans remained stable or changed slightly. The basis of each variety also had different degrees of changes [24].

2026 年 1 月 13 日 LPG：短期供应偏紧，地缘扰动偏强 丙烯：现货供需收紧，趋势偏强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 4,239 | 0.43% | 4,213 | -0.61% | | | PG2603 | 4,155 | 0.46% | 4,123 | -0.77% | | | PL2602 | 5,978 | 1.10% | 5,887 | -1.52% | | | PL2603 | 6,071 | 1.13% | 5,980 | -1.50% | | | PL2604 | 6,098 | 1.13% | 6,032 | -1.08% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2602 | 52,187 | 4843 | 29,464 | -3998 | | | P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - LLDPE: HD - LLD spread is narrowing, with marginal supply increase of LLDPE expected, demand in seasonal off - peak, and downstream开工率 weakening. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability [2]. - PP: Supply - demand is weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, with inventory reduction expected. PDH plants in South China coastal areas have new maintenance plans, and the balance has improved significantly. Pay attention to the implementation of later maintenance plans [2]. Methanol - Futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot is purchased on - demand. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of coastal MTO plants [4][6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Short - term supply - demand is weak, with high inventory pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: Short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, but there is inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival. It is not advisable to chase long in the short - term, and opportunities to short EB03 and shrink processing fees at high levels can be considered [9]. LPG No overall view is provided in the report, only data on price, inventory, and开工率 are presented [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Affected by macro - sentiment and short - term demand expectations, it fluctuates upward. The supply remains high, and the demand is slightly weak. It is expected to continue the oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. - Glass: After the previous rise, it oscillates and falls back. The supply decreases, and the demand shrinks. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the winter storage situation [13]. Crude Oil - Affected by geopolitical risks such as the situation in Iran, oil prices rise, but the increase is limited due to the weak supply - demand expectation. Brent crude oil should pay attention to the pressure around $65 per barrel [14]. Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yielding tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. Demand recovery is limited, and inventory in Qingdao increases. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate in the range of 15500 - 16500 [15]. Urea - Supply remains high, and demand is weak. There is no substantial improvement in supply - demand, and prices are expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of plants and downstream demand [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Futures oscillate and fall, supply increases slightly, demand lacks improvement, and prices are expected to be stable and weak [19]. - PVC: Affected by export policies, prices fluctuate emotionally. The fundamentals are still under pressure, and short - term short positions should be on hold [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the medium - term and conduct long - spread arbitrage on PX5 - 9 at low levels [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to weaken, with limited inventory accumulation in January and greater pressure in February. It is recommended to oscillate in the range of 5000 - 5300 in the short - term, go long at low levels in the medium - term, and conduct long - spread arbitrage on TA5 - 9 at low levels [20]. - MEG: Supply is high, demand is weakening, and there is a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation in January - February. Pay attention to the pressure around 4000 for EG2605, conduct reverse - spread arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high levels, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at high levels [20]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak, and prices follow raw materials to oscillate. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PF plate is recommended to be shrunk at high levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand both decrease, and prices and processing fees follow the cost end. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PR main - contract plate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increase, and spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 change [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE企业 inventory and社会库存 increase, PP企业 inventory decreases, and PP贸易商 inventory increases. PE装置开工率 and下游加权开工率 increase slightly, while PP装置开工率 and downstream开工率 decrease [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decrease slightly, and spreads and basis change [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业 inventory,港口库存, and社会库存 all increase [5]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic企业开工率 increases, and some downstream开工率 decreases [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: Prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha increase [9]. - **Benzene - Styrene Price and Spread**: Prices of pure benzene and styrene increase, and spreads and basis change [9]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene江苏港口库存 increases slightly, and styrene江苏港口库存 decreases.开工率 of some industries in the industrial chain changes [9]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LPG increase slightly, and spreads and basis change [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decrease slightly. Upstream主营炼厂开工率 increases, and some downstream开工率 changes slightly [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices are relatively stable, and spreads and basis change [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash开工率 and周产量 increase, while浮法日熔量 decreases slightly. Glass厂库库存 decreases, and soda ash厂库库存 increases [13]. - **Real Estate Data**: New - start area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all change [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increase, and spreads and basis change [14]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: Prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD change, and spreads and basis change [14]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: Prices of natural rubber spot products change slightly, and basis and non - standard spreads change [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Production in some countries in November changes,开工率 of tire industries changes, and import and export volumes increase [15]. - **Inventory Change**:保税区库存 increases, and上期所厂库期货库存 decreases [15]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Price**: Futures prices oscillate and rise, and spot prices decline slightly [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea日产量 and周产量 increase,装置检修损失量 decreases,厂内库存 increases slightly, and港口库存 decreases [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: Prices of PVC and caustic soda products change slightly, and spreads and basis change [19]. - **Supply and Demand**:开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and some downstream industries changes, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda increases [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: Prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China MX increase [20]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY change [20]. - **PX, PTA, MEG Price and Spread**: Prices and spreads of PX, PTA, and MEG change, and inventory and开工率 of MEG change [20]. - **开工率**:开工率 of industries in the polyester industrial chain changes [20].

Group 1: Methanol - The domestic methanol market has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operating rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, MTO profits are average, which suppresses the upside potential of methanol. [2] - Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Additionally, the change in oil prices should be monitored. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may open up the upside potential. [2] Group 2: Plastics - The futures market is oscillating, while the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating, with the North China - East China price difference at -80, a decrease of 30, and the South China - East China price difference at 50, an increase of 50. [4] - Crude oil prices are oscillating. Oil - based production profits are deteriorating, and coal - based production profits are also deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, the theoretical LL import price is 63, the HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. [4] - Upstream coal chemical industry is reducing inventory, and Sinopec and PetroChina are also reducing inventory. Social inventory has increased this week. HD inventory is at a low level, LD inventory has increased, and LL inventory is slightly higher than the neutral level year - on - year. [4] - From the supply side, the supply growth rate of standard products is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month, and there are few maintenance plans in January. The full - density production has recovered. Looking at the balance sheet, the overall PE supply growth rate for the 05 contract is neutral, and the supply - demand balance sheet for LL still faces significant pressure. [4] Group 3: PP - The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The East China basis is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225. The export volume has decreased slightly month - on - month. [6] - In the domestic regional price difference, the North China - East China price difference is -70, an increase of 35, and the South China - East China price difference is 100, a decrease of 30. [6] - In terms of upstream profits, oil - based production profits are stable. The comprehensive PDH profit is -970, an increase of 230 compared to the previous period, and the PHD operating rate has remained stable this week. Downstream BOPP and plastic weaving profits have improved. [6] - On the supply side, the number of temporary maintenance plans has increased, and the supply in January is flat compared to the previous month. Downstream buyers have replenished inventory at low prices for the holiday. Sinopec and PetroChina are reducing inventory, while the coal chemical industry and social inventory are increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is at a neutral level. Looking at the balance sheet, the supply pressure for the 05 contract and subsequent periods is slightly higher than neutral. PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed to improve the situation. [6] Group 4: PVC - The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price for the ethylene method is 575, and for the calcium carbide method is 570. The sustainability needs further observation. [8] - Coal prices are 600, unchanged from the previous period, and semi - coke prices are 820, also unchanged. Semi - coke profits are poor, and calcium carbide profits are also poor. The Shandong spot ex - factory price is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry with purchased calcium carbide is around -600. The calcium carbide - ethylene price is stable. [8] - Upstream production has remained stable this week, with an operating rate of 79.7%, an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous period. This week, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%, and that of the ethylene method is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. [8] - Upstream factory inventory is 309,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period. PVC social inventory is 1.114 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared to the previous period. Inventory in East China is 1.06 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons, and in South China is 54,000 tons, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still slightly higher than neutral, and exports are flat compared to the previous period. [8] - Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, seasonal production has recovered. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, export volume this year is relatively high. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets remains weak. Comprehensively, the medium - and long - term outlook for PVC is still poor. [8]

转自：智通财经 【沪银主力合约收涨7.23%】智通财经1月13日电，沪金主力合约收涨1.31%，报1030元/克。沪银主力合 约收涨7.23%，报21268元/千克。SC原油主力合约收跌0.07%，报435元/桶。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron Ore: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, meaning a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is still optimistic, but the weak demand restricts the upside space. The steel market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern, and the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be strongly volatile, while silicon manganese and silicon iron are recommended to buy on dips [1][2][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market rebounded today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production slightly increased, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined, production continued to increase slightly, and inventory was slowly depleted. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces were gradually restarted, and hot metal production increased in the short term, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The overall market sentiment is optimistic, and the market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market rose slightly today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally and were still strong year - on - year. Brazilian shipments decreased significantly, Australian shipments were basically flat, and the volume sent to China increased. The supply from non - mainstream regions improved. Domestic port inventory increased significantly last week and is expected to continue to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, blast furnaces that had regular maintenance have restarted, and hot metal production increased last week. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has been increasing continuously, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward during the day. Coke transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coke prices on the market are at a premium, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,252 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and transaction prices increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coking coal prices on the market are at a premium to Mongolian coal, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices dropped significantly during the day. Driven by the market rebound, manganese ore spot prices increased. There is a structural problem with manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon - manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The manganese ore spot transaction prices increased last week. On the demand side, hot metal production decreased seasonally. Silicon - manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices dropped significantly during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, prices are relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a certain decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, hot metal production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand is still resilient. Silicon - iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The main contract LC2605.GFE in the futures market closed at 156,060 yuan/ton, up 12,640 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The spot price of lithium carbonate was 152,120 yuan/ton, up 8.63% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis is -3300 points, a negative basis (spot discount), 160 points weaker than the previous day, and the basis has strengthened overall in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate is 25,970 lots, an increase of 610 lots (+2.41%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days. The reduction of the tax refund rate has led to the front - loading of short - term demand for lithium carbonate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 156,060 yuan/ton, up 12,640 yuan/ton from the previous day and 26,080 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the settlement price was 155,420 yuan/ton, up 12,240 yuan/ton from the previous day and 28,860 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica from different origins have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Australian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate is 2040 - 2150 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 85 - 105 US dollars/ton from the previous day and 470 - 500 US dollars/ton from 5 trading days ago. The average price of lithium mica in the Chinese market has also increased [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 152,120 yuan/ton, up 12,080 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,590 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 143,030 yuan/ton, up 10,990 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,140 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium have changed. For example, the price of the ternary precursor (523) was 106,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but up 10,000 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts presenting the prices of manganese acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][13][15]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the main lithium carbonate contract [18][19].

期货研究报告 2026年1月12日 周报 甲醇：港口库存预期下降，震荡偏强 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场继续走强运行为主，其中江苏价格波动区间在2210-2310元/吨， 广东价格波动在2190-2280元/吨。外轮卸货速度顺畅，加之部分库区提货减弱，港口甲醇库存继续累积，但 在进口预期减量及国际形势不稳对市场情绪的提振下，周期内港口甲醇市场走强运行为主。内地甲醇价格先 涨后跌，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1843-1858元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2123-2140元/吨。 受港口价格上行、烯烃外采增加及下游节后补库支撑，周内多地价格走高；但随后港口烯烃装置停车、下游 原料库存高企的利空因素显现，高价货源成交乏力，市场价格随之回落。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，1月份港口到货预 期下降，本周甲醇下游整体需求预计较稳。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升，本周预期有所下降。预计甲 醇价格近期震荡略偏强运行，05合约下方支撑2220一线。 关注因素：1.甲醇 ...