Core Viewpoint - Kosen Technology forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2025, ranging from -330 million to -245 million yuan, indicating a reduction in loss compared to the previous year [2] Financial Performance Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was -470 million yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of -421 million yuan, and earnings per share of -0.86 yuan [2] - The projected loss for 2025 shows an improvement compared to the 2024 figures, with a narrower loss range [2] Reasons for Performance Changes - Fluctuations in market demand led to lower-than-expected orders, resulting in a low capacity utilization rate [2] - Strategic adjustments to optimize low-margin projects caused inventory write-offs and asset impairment losses [2] - High R&D expenses aimed at enhancing product competitiveness impacted the current net profit [2] Non-Recurring Gains and Losses - Non-recurring gains primarily consist of government subsidies and income from the recovery of assets such as land and buildings from a wholly-owned subsidiary [2]

每经AI快讯，1月16日，美国12月产能利用率76.3%，预估为76.0%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Polyester Sector - In the short - term, the supply - demand outlook for the polyester sector has worsened. PX and PTA should be treated with an adjustment mindset, and attention should be paid to the risk of crude oil price fluctuations due to unstable geopolitical situations. The sector lacks fundamental support and will follow the general trend of commodities, fluctuating in a low - level range. - In the long - term, the polyester sector will show a differentiated trend. With supply expected to remain relatively tight, the operating centers of PX and PTA will tend to move up. Due to increasing supply pressure, ethylene glycol will perform relatively weakly. [30] Methanol - In the short - term, affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran, the price fluctuations of methanol have increased, maintaining a wide - range oscillation pattern. Methanol is in a deep game between strong expectations and weak reality, with limited upward space and potential for a slight adjustment. - In the long - term, the import volume of methanol is expected to decrease in February, but demand recovery is weak. Methanol will likely continue to oscillate widely until there is obvious recovery momentum in demand. [58] Plastic - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of plastic has marginally improved this week, and the price has continued to rebound due to strong macro - sentiment. However, as geopolitical concerns ease, the cost - side support weakens, and plastic may return to fundamental operation, with a possible weak and oscillatory trend. - In the long - term, the supply pressure of plastic is unlikely to decrease due to new capacity releases, and overall demand is in the off - season. Plastic is expected to continue its weak trend. [59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Crude Oil Important Information - Iran's short - term possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, and the risk premium has been quickly squeezed out. The US has imposed sanctions on multiple Iranian individuals, entities, and foreign companies associated with Iran. The US has completed the first - batch sale of Venezuelan crude oil as part of a $2 billion deal, and plans to continue selling Venezuelan crude oil indefinitely. [3] - The EIA has slightly revised up its future oil - price forecast, expecting the average price of WTI crude oil in 2026 to reach $52.21 per barrel, and maintaining the 2027 forecast at $50.36. US crude - oil production is expected to decline from a peak of 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.25 million barrels per day in 2027. The rebound in Venezuelan crude - oil production may exacerbate market oversupply. [4] - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, US commercial crude - oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.447 million barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 95.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous week, while gasoline inventories surged by 8.977 million barrels to 251.013 million barrels. [4] Polyester Sector Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures prices: WTI crude oil continuous increased by 0.03%, PX603 decreased by 0.53%, TA605 decreased by 0.75%, EG605 decreased by 0.75%, PF602 decreased by 1.21%, and PR603 decreased by 0.03%. - Spot prices: Naphtha increased by 2.87%, PX CFR: Taiwan decreased by 0.68%, PTA spot benchmark price decreased by 0.49%, ethylene glycol East China mainstream price decreased by 0.57%, polyester staple fiber East China mainstream price decreased by 0.84%, and polyester bottle - chip East China mainstream price increased by 0.50%. - Basis: PX basis decreased by 10.64 yuan/ton, PTA basis increased by 13 yuan/ton, ethylene glycol basis increased by 8 yuan/ton, short - fiber basis increased by 23 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip basis increased by 32 yuan/ton. - Polyester filament prices: POY150D/48F increased by 2.29%, FDY150D/96F increased by 1.47%, and DTY150D/48F increased by 1.29%. [6] Supply and Demand Analysis of Polyester Sector PX - Last week, the restart of Fujia Dahua's 1 - million - ton PX plant increased supply. As of January 15, the domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 91.95%, up 2.83 percentage points, and the PX output was 760,600 tons, up 1.46%. - South Korea's GSCX Line 3's 550,000 - ton PX plant has restarted, and Asia's PX load has slightly rebounded. As of January 15, Asia's weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 79.84%, up 0.66%. - There are no planned plant changes next week, and domestic PX supply is expected to remain stable. [12] PTA - During the week, Yisheng New Materials shut down for maintenance, and Xin Fengming restarted. As of January 15, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, down 0.19 percentage points, and the weekly output was 1.4504 million tons, down 1,800 tons. - This week, the pace of PTA social inventory reduction has slowed. As of January 15, PTA in - plant inventory days were 3.62 days (+0.02 days), polyester factory PTA inventory was 7.5 days (+0 days), and PTA social inventory was about 2.8674 million tons (-16,800 tons). - There are maintenance plans for plants in South China next week, and domestic supply is expected to decline slightly. [15][16] Ethylene Glycol - This week, Yongcheng Yongjin restarted, and some plants increased their loads, while Sinopec Sichuan Petrochemical had a short - term shutdown, and some plants decreased their loads. As of January 15, the domestic weekly average ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 62.69% (-0.37 percentage points), with the integrated plant capacity utilization rate at 62.51% (-1.14 percentage points) and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate at 62.98% (+0.89 percentage points); the weekly output was 395,600 tons (-2,300 tons). Sinopec Sichuan Petrochemical will undergo maintenance next week, and domestic supply will decrease. - This week, port inventories increased. As of January 15, the total inventory at East China ports was 728,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from Monday and up 38,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the arrival of imported goods will decrease next week, considering the decline in shipments, port inventories are expected to increase slightly. [17] Polyester End - The weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester end decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 86.7%. [18] Polyester Inventory - This week, the inventory of short - fiber and long - fiber polyester decreased slightly. [22] Terminal - As of January 15, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 54.94% (-2.95 percentage points), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 7.73 days (-0.95 days), and the坯布 inventory days were 28.27 days (+0.7 days). [27] Methanol and Polyolefin Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures: MA2605 decreased by 1.50%, MA basis increased by 54.84%, L2605 increased by 0.31%, and L basis increased by 158.51%. - Methanol prices: Methanol (Taicang) increased by 0.40%, and methanol CFR increased by 0.65%. - Plastic prices: LLDPE increased by 2.58%, HDPE increased by 2.88%, and LDPE increased by 2.22%. [33] Supply and Demand Analysis of Methanol Supply Side - As of January 15, the domestic methanol operating rate was 91.11%, down 0.31 percentage points, and the output was 2.0353 million tons, down 6,990 tons (0.34%) from the previous period. - This week, Xinxiang Zhongxin's plant was under maintenance, with a loss of 300,000 tons/year of production capacity, and Inner Mongolia Jiuding's plant resumed operation, with a recovery of 100,000 tons/year of production capacity. - There are still some maintenance plans next week, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly. [40] Demand Side - As of January 15, the MTO operating rate decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 85.77%. Ningbo Fude continued to be shut down, and Zhejiang Xingxing shut down on January 12 due to economic pressure. Sierbang has a maintenance plan in February, and the support for coastal olefins is weakening. Other traditional downstream sectors are in the off - season, and although there is a slight increase in plant restarts, there is no obvious positive news. Olefins may continue to weaken in the next period. [43] Inventory - As of January 14, port inventories were 1.4353 million tons, down 101,900 tons (6.63%) from the previous period, and inland inventories were 450,900 tons, up 3,270 tons (0.73%). - The overall unloading volume this period was not large, and port inventories decreased. Although coastal olefins in Zhejiang weakened due to plant shutdowns, inventories also decreased significantly due to less unloading. However, this inventory reduction was mainly driven by unloading volume, and there was no obvious positive news on the demand side. There is still a large risk of inventory accumulation in the next period, and the turning point for effective inventory reduction has not yet arrived. Inland inventories are higher than in previous years due to high operating pressure and seasonal weakening of demand, and there is still pressure to reduce inventories. [46] Supply and Demand Analysis of Plastic Supply Side - As of January 15, the domestic plastic operating rate was 81.6%, down 2.07 percentage points, and the output was 669,800 tons, down 17,000 tons (2.47%) from the previous period. - This week, plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical were under maintenance, with a total loss of about 480,000 tons/year of production capacity, and plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical resumed operation, with a total recovery of about 280,000 tons/year of production capacity. - Next week, there are many plants resuming operation, with a total recovery of about 1.5 million tons/year of production capacity, and the operating rate is expected to increase. [49] Demand Side - As of January 15, the downstream plastic operating rate was 40.93%, down 0.28 percentage points. The agricultural film sector continued to weaken seasonally, with the operating rate continuing to decline (-0.91%), and the packaging film sector was slightly boosted by post - holiday replenishment demand, but order follow - up was weakening. [54] Inventory - As of January 13, social inventories were 484,300 tons, down 500 tons (0.1%) from the previous period, and two - oil enterprise inventories were 302,000 tons, down 23,000 tons (7.08%). - This period, the macro - news was positive, market sentiment was strong, and prices continued to rise. However, after the downstream had completed phased inventory replenishment, the trading atmosphere was stalemate. Two - oil enterprises successfully reduced inventories, but overall inventories fluctuated little. [57]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Market short - covering sentiment cooled, spot trading worsened. For PE, HD - LLDPE spread narrowed, with increased marginal supply of LLDPE and weakening downstream demand in the off - season. For PP, supply and demand were both weak, with more maintenance, expected destocking in January, and improved balance. Pay attention to the implementation of future maintenance [2]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures opened lower and then fluctuated narrowly, with light spot trading. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, while port prices are under pressure due to factors such as low MTO profits and potential device maintenance [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene has a weak short - term supply - demand pattern but is supported by the strong performance of downstream styrene. Styrene has short - term supply shortages but may accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - Supply: Domestic production is ending, and raw material prices are rising. Demand: Some semi - steel tire export orders are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9][10]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. Glass futures are also expected to decline, with weakening supply and demand in the off - season [11]. Urea Industry - Urea supply is high, but short - term regional agricultural demand boosts market confidence. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream agricultural demand and plant restart schedules [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, with increased supply and lack of demand improvement. PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with high supply, low demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. LPG Industry - No specific view provided in the content Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices fell on Thursday. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the supply - demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and may be tight in the second quarter. PTA and MEG are expected to have weak supply - demand in January and February. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials [19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: L2605 and L2609 closed down, PP2605 slightly up, PP2609 down. Some spreads and basis had significant changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased, while PE device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased, and PP device开工率 slightly increased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: MA2605 and MA2609 closed down, with significant changes in some spreads and basis [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased slightly, while port and social inventories decreased. Upstream and downstream开工率 had different changes [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: Many prices such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene decreased, with some spreads and basis changing [8]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased, while some decreased. Pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and styrene port inventory decreased [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: Spot prices of natural rubber decreased, and some spreads changed significantly [9]. - **Production,开工率, and Inventory**: Production in some regions changed, tire开工率 increased, and inventory in China continued to accumulate [9]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: Glass and soda ash prices were mostly stable, with some futures prices down [11]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Soda ash production increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Glass supply and demand were weak, and inventory was still relatively high year - on - year [11]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: Futures prices fluctuated down, and spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, industrial demand was stable, and agricultural demand in some regions increased [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory and port inventories decreased [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price Changes**: Caustic soda and PVC prices decreased slightly, with some spreads and basis changing [13]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Caustic soda supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory increased in some regions. PVC supply was stable, demand was low, and inventory accumulated [13]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: Some futures prices changed slightly, and spot prices were stable [15]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased slightly, and some开工率 increased while some decreased [15]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent and WTI prices decreased, while SC increased slightly. Many refined oil product prices decreased [17]. - **Spread Changes**: Some spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain mostly decreased, with changes in some spreads and basis [19]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased slightly while some decreased. MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival forecast decreased [19].

Core Viewpoint - Yuanxin Energy has submitted its main board listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing significant revenue growth and profitability despite facing price pressures in its core products [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Yuanxin Energy reported revenue of 435 million yuan, which surged to 1.144 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth rate of 163% [1]. - The company's profit for 2023 was 40.74 million yuan, increasing to 96.27 million yuan in 2024. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached 881 million yuan with a profit of 70.89 million yuan [1]. Pricing Pressure - The average selling price of the core product, integrated energy storage system solutions, has significantly declined from 1.26 yuan per watt-hour in 2023 to 0.44 yuan per watt-hour in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a cumulative drop of 65% [2]. - The price of energy storage system products also decreased from 0.66 yuan/Wh in 2023 to 0.38 yuan/Wh in the first three quarters of 2025, impacting the company's profitability [2]. Profitability and Margin Fluctuations - Yuanxin Energy's gross margin was 21.6% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 17.8% in 2024, and then recovering to 18.3% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - Large-scale energy storage system solutions have become a key driver for gross margin growth, with gross profit rising from 0.823 million yuan in 2023 to over 150 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. Customer and Supplier Risks - The company faces risks related to customer and supplier overlap, with significant procurement from a single supplier while also selling products to them. The procurement amounts from this supplier were approximately 203 million yuan, 590 million yuan, and 341 million yuan from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. - Customer concentration risk is notable, with the top five customers contributing 53.6%, 81.6%, and 80.8% of revenue from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025, and the largest customer accounting for 40.7% of revenue in 2024 [3]. Production Capacity - As of September 30, 2025, Yuanxin Energy has an annual production capacity of 6.8 GWh across its facilities in Jiangsu and Yunnan, but the actual capacity utilized was only 4.9 GWh with a production of 3.1 GWh, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of 62.2% [4]. - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to technology research and development, overseas market expansion, and upgrading production facilities, although expanding production capacity may exacerbate underutilization issues [4].

Core Viewpoint - 盈趣科技's financial performance has shown a downward trend in key metrics such as revenue, net profit, and gross margin, but the company claims that the adverse factors have significantly improved [1]. Financial Performance - During the reporting period, 盈趣科技's revenue was 4.35 billion, 3.86 billion, 3.57 billion, and 2.88 billion respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company being 616.84 million, 386.67 million, 238.09 million, and 167.88 million. The gross margins were 30.43%, 30.70%, 28.36%, and 27.11%, all showing a declining trend [2]. - The company attributes the performance fluctuations to product structure adjustments, intensified market competition, and changes in customer demand. Notably, revenue from innovative consumer electronics is expected to decline significantly in 2023 and 2024 due to product transitions and inventory reductions [2]. International Business and Trade Policy Impact - 盈趣科技's overseas revenue accounted for 85.92%, 78.16%, 75.58%, and 73.29% during the reporting period, with a significant portion of sales directed to North America and Europe. Sales to the U.S. decreased from 37.92% in 2022 to 22.34% in the first nine months of 2025 [3]. - The company has established overseas production bases in Malaysia, Hungary, and Mexico to mitigate trade friction risks, and the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods is limited due to the majority of products being produced overseas [3]. Customer Concentration and Dependency Risk - The sales to the top five customers represented 63.03%, 48.52%, 43.82%, and 37.91% of total revenue during the reporting period, indicating a decreasing trend in customer concentration [4]. - Despite the high customer concentration, the company emphasizes strong historical relationships and high customization levels with major clients, which include well-known international and technology companies across various sectors [4]. Capacity Utilization and Fixed Asset Impairment - The capacity utilization rates were 91.74%, 84.31%, 78.40%, and 71.64%, showing a downward trend attributed to fluctuations in downstream market demand [5]. - The company reports no idle or obsolete fixed assets, and the management of fixed assets is deemed compliant and efficient, with no impairment provisions required [5]. Accounts Receivable and Inventory Management - The accounts receivable values were 1.09 billion, 1.11 billion, 1.19 billion, and 1.24 billion, showing an upward trend, with over 90% of accounts receivable aged within one year [6]. - Inventory values were 863 million, 788 million, 758 million, and 892 million, with a majority of inventory aged within one year, and the company maintains a cautious approach to inventory impairment provisions [6]. Fundraising Project Rationality and Capacity Digestion - The company plans to raise no more than 776.9 million for the expansion of its manufacturing bases in Malaysia and Mexico, as well as for health environment product expansion and R&D center upgrades [8]. - Despite low current capacity utilization, the company believes the fundraising projects are strategically sound based on global capacity layout and anticipated market recovery, expecting an additional annual revenue of approximately 2.19 billion and net profit of about 218 million post-project completion [8]. Goodwill Impairment Risk - As of September 2025, the goodwill value was 286.91 million, primarily from previous acquisitions, with no signs of impairment noted [9]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 13%-18% for 2025, continuing to optimize its global layout and product structure to enhance core competitiveness [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This cycle, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remains at a high level. The cis - butadiene market is boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved. However, there is some inventory that has been sold but not picked up, so the overall inventory level has limited changes [2]. - The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. Affected by the downstream resistance to high prices, downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week [2]. - The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 and 12,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 70. The position of the main contract is 95,318, with an increase of 72,576 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 6,530 tons, with an increase of 2,000 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,950 yuan/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 120 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 105. The price of Brent crude oil is not clearly stated in terms of change, and the new price is not given in a complete comparison [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 63.87 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.53. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 725 US dollars/ton, with no change. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.75 [2]. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25. The price of WTI crude oil is 59.5 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.38 [2]. - The butadiene production capacity this week is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene this week is 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.75. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber this week is 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 [2]. - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber this week is - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.31 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 [2]. - The manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50. The trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 59. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 663 [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, in December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [2]. - In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while there are policy disturbances affecting the soda ash market, the fundamentals are limiting upward price movements [4][39]. - Supply of soda ash has increased week-on-week due to reduced maintenance schedules and new capacity coming online, leading to significant pressure on the supply side [4][39]. - Demand for soda ash has slightly decreased, particularly in heavy soda ash, while light soda ash demand remains stable [4][39]. Group 2 - Inventory levels for soda ash have significantly increased, with production company inventories rising sharply and social inventories slightly declining, indicating an overall surplus in supply [4][39]. - The short-term strategy for soda ash is expected to be characterized by low-level fluctuations, with a price range of 1180-1280 for the SA2605 contract [4][40]. - In the medium term, the market is expected to remain bearish due to persistent oversupply, with a focus on selling opportunities after price rebounds [5][40]. Group 3 - The production cost of soda ash has shown slight fluctuations, with the cost for ammonia-based production at 1308 yuan/ton and for co-production at 1648 yuan/ton [11][46]. - The overall operating rate for soda ash production has increased to 84.39%, with weekly production rising to 75.36 million tons [13][49]. - The soda ash sales-to-production ratio has decreased to 78.18%, indicating a decline in market activity [16][53]. Group 4 - The glass market has seen a decrease in supply due to maintenance on production lines, which has positively impacted prices [26][64]. - Demand for glass has slightly decreased, with increased speculative demand noted, particularly in the context of a weak real estate market [26][64]. - Glass inventory has decreased by nearly 7,000 tons week-on-week, indicating improved sales activity [26][75].

Report Date - The report is dated January 12, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This period, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remained at a high level. The cis - butadiene market was boosted by a significant rise in raw material prices, and producers' sales improved. However, there was some inventory of sold but undelivered products, and the overall inventory level changed little. The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. But due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, they may maintain just - in - time procurement. It is expected that the inventory of producers and trading enterprises may increase in the short term. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. With the gradual resumption of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 - 12,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,070 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract was 22,742, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,597. The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 4,530 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 63.34 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan was 551.25 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 725 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil was 59.12 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.36 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, with no week - on - week change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons; the producer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.301 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2] Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%. Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene plants, and the supply has remained high. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of producers have improved [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today. The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the gradual recovery of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,250 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,010 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 200,506 lots, up 2,788 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 70,564 lots, down 442 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 53,704 lots, down 3,822 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 14,823 lots, down 1,236 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 104,590 tons, up 100 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 57,758 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 330 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 980 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,408 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 458 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.22 Thai baht/kg, down 0.27 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 56.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.54%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.82%, down 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.76%, down 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.74%, down 0.8 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2].