Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market will continue to experience significant volatility into 2025, driven by policy dynamics and supply-demand imbalances, with U.S. policy movements being the largest variable affecting the market [1]. Oil Market - Oil prices are expected to gradually find a bottom, having fallen from $85 per barrel in January to $60 per barrel currently, exceeding previous expectations [1]. - The increase in oil supply in 2021 and 2022, coupled with a mismatch in supply and demand, has led to a sustained decline in oil prices [1]. - The U.S. government's aim to lower inflation by reducing oil prices and increasing energy production has been highlighted as a significant factor [2]. Demand Dynamics - Global oil demand remains strong, with a noted decline in U.S. demand, particularly in air travel, which decreased by approximately 2% from April to May [2]. - Despite the weakening demand in the U.S., international travel demand, especially from Europe, has reached new highs [2]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is stabilizing, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE diversifying their economies to reduce reliance on energy revenues [2]. - Investments in tourism, fintech, and logistics are becoming focal points for these regions, decreasing the likelihood of escalating regional conflicts [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices are projected to enter a long-term bull market, driven by central bank purchases and safe-haven demand [3]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, from 400 tons annually to 800 tons in 2022 and 1000 tons in 2023, with expectations of continued high demand [3][4]. - The emergence of new investors, particularly overseas holders of U.S. financial assets, is contributing to increased gold purchases, with a potential 0.5% shift of their $57 trillion in assets into gold leading to an additional 500 tons of demand annually [4]. Metal Market - The metal market, particularly copper, is facing challenges due to high prices and potential trade tensions, with copper currently priced at $9,500 per ton [4]. - The metal market is expected to be significantly impacted by U.S. policy changes, contrasting with the more stable outlook for oil prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, with recent auctions showing unprecedented low demand and raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential buyer strikes [2][3][9]. Auction Results - The Japanese Ministry of Finance auctioned 500 billion yen (approximately 35 million USD) of 40-year bonds, resulting in a highest bid yield of 3.1350%, exceeding market expectations and marking the highest level since issuance began in 2007 [2]. - The auction for 20-year bonds the previous week recorded the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since 2012 at 2.5 times, with the tail spread reaching its highest level since 1987 [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the poor auction results, yields on various maturities surged, with the 40-year bond yield reaching 3.399%, a 1.32% increase from the previous day [3]. - The futures market also saw significant sell-offs, with the June bond futures contract dropping to 138.86 yen [8]. Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among investors regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policies, particularly in light of rising long-term bond yields and the potential for reduced issuance of long-term bonds [7][9]. - The Bank of Japan's recent actions, including a potential reduction in bond purchases, have contributed to a perception of instability in the bond market [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in demand for long-term bonds is attributed to the Bank of Japan's reduced purchasing, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [9]. - Major domestic investors, including life insurance companies and banks, have decreased their holdings in long-term bonds, further exacerbating the demand issue [14]. Global Implications - The turmoil in Japan's bond market may have broader implications, as rising long-term yields are observed in other developed economies, indicating a global trend of increasing fiscal sustainability concerns [16][17]. - Analysts warn that if Japanese interest rates rise significantly, it could lead to forced selling of foreign assets, potentially tightening global liquidity [17].

Group 1 - Japanese government bond auction demand was weak, leading to a significant drop in Japanese bonds and a rise in yields, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 10 basis points to 2.93% [2][5] - The U.S. Treasury yields also rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.47%, nearing the highest levels since 2007 [5] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal health are growing due to rising deficits from tax cuts and tariffs, impacting investor sentiment towards the dollar, which has seen a nearly 7% decline this year [8] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector saw a rise in stock prices ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with notable increases in shares of Samsung Electronics (up over 3%) and TSMC (up over 2%) [5] - Analysts expect strong demand for Nvidia chips in the coming quarters, supported by comments from major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google [5] - Japan proposed purchasing billions of dollars worth of U.S. semiconductor products during trade negotiations, indicating potential growth in this sector [5] Group 3 - The Asian stock markets erased early gains, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.6% and the Nikkei 225 closing nearly unchanged at 37,722.4 points [1] - The price of rebar steel has fallen to an eight-year low, trading around 2,958 yuan, with an 11% decline in price year-to-date [12] - Cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin down by 0.2% and Ethereum down by 1.1% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is facing a structural crisis despite a temporary technical rebound in long-term bond yields, particularly the 30-year and 40-year bonds, which saw a decline of 7 basis points to 3.029% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off has pushed the yields of 30-year and 40-year bonds to their highest levels since issuance, indicating a significant market stress [4][5]. - The upcoming auction of 40-year bonds is critical; weak demand could lead to further yield increases and exacerbate the selling cycle, while strong demand may provide temporary stability [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a pronounced steepening of the yield curve in Japan, exacerbated by the central bank's significant reduction in bond purchases, with traditional buyers like life insurance companies failing to fill the gap [5]. - Japanese life insurance companies reported a more than doubling of domestic bond investment losses in the last fiscal year, highlighting the growing supply-demand imbalance [5]. Group 3: Policy and Market Sentiment - The Bank of Japan's Governor has not indicated any plans to intervene in the bond market, contributing to increased market volatility and uncertainty [5]. - The outcome of the 40-year bond auction is seen as a crucial test of market demand, with potential implications for future market stability [5].

感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从供应端来看，国内煤矿生产持续高位运行，4月原煤产量同比增长3.8%，1 - 4月累计产量同比增长 6.6% ，山西、内蒙古和陕西等主要产煤大省产量均有不同程度增长。进口方面，虽海运煤进口利润 下降，但蒙古煤"五一"后日通过量仍维持高位，5月17日中蒙第二条跨境铁路开工，后续进口能力 还将提升，内蒙古288口岸库存高企，成交冷清，贸易商降价出货，进一步打压价格。 需求端同样表现疲软。钢铁行业作为焦煤主要消费领域，当前处于淡旺季转换阶段，上周247家钢厂 日均铁水产量环比减少0.87万吨，有见顶迹象，且在低利润背景下，钢厂采购谨慎，无集中补库需 求。而焦化厂面临钢厂连续压价，已历12轮提价，后续还有第13轮提价可能，市场情绪谨慎，采购 推迟，导致煤焦销售不畅，库存连续累积。 综合来看，除非国内煤矿大幅减产或需求端超预期反弹，否则焦煤价格仍将承压，短期内弱势格局 难改。 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰 ...

24日，据追风交易台消息，高盛认为，日本长期国债收益率飙升的核心原因在于供需严重失衡。寿险公司因久期缺口扩大而需求锐减，加上政府财政担忧 加剧以及资产密集型再保险交易引发的抛售，共同构筑了长期国债市场的抛压。这些因素导致日本国债市场买家稀少，流动性极差，即便日本央行持有大 量国债也无力回天。 高盛还强调，虽然日本国债抛售目前尚未传导至日本股市或汇市，但其对全球债市的溢出效应已愈发显著。数据显示，自今年年初以来，30年期日本国债 已为G4（美、欧、日、英）国家收益率贡献了约80个基点的上行压力，成为最大的看跌动能来源。这意味着，过去一个月美国国债收益率的飙升，很可 能大部分是日本长期国债市场动荡的"副产品"。 展望未来，日本国债市场的波动性仍将持续。尽管日本政府可能考虑减少长期国债发行或回购，但高盛认为，若无实质性的宏观经济政策应对高通胀，这 种波动将反复出现。日本央行的货币政策走向，特别是其量化紧缩路径的调整，将成为短期内影响市场走势的关键。 日本长期国债收益率为何飙升？ 高盛日本利率交易员Yusuke Ochi指出，日本长期国债收益率近期急剧上涨，主要原因在于供需平衡的显著恶化，这包括寿险公司需求的变化以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic thermal coal market is experiencing a continuous decline in prices due to supply-demand imbalance, high inventory levels, and weak market sentiment, despite some potential support factors emerging as summer approaches [1][2][3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of thermal coal remains stable, with domestic production and imports adequately meeting market needs. As of May 20, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 622 yuan per ton, down 152 yuan from the year's peak [2]. - Industrial electricity recovery is slow, leading to low downstream purchasing intentions. In April, the cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with coal consumption also declining [2][4]. - High inventory levels across the coal supply chain are exerting downward pressure on prices, with port inventories reaching historical highs and insufficient downstream demand for coal transportation [3][4]. Seasonal Factors and Future Outlook - As high temperatures arrive, daily coal consumption by coal power enterprises is expected to gradually increase, potentially boosting procurement needs during the summer peak [4]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be some support for coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall market is likely to remain weak in the short term, with prices expected to continue declining slightly before potentially stabilizing or rebounding during the summer peak [4][5]. - The anticipated turning point for daily coal consumption is expected to occur in late May, which may help to rebalance the current supply-demand situation [5].

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Since May, credit bonds have performed well, especially long - term credit bonds. As of May 22, both the yield and credit spread of credit bonds have declined this month, with a divergence in short - and long - term trends. Long - term credit bonds are strong and have anti - decline properties [2]. - The strong performance of long - term credit bonds is due to the imbalance between supply and demand. The supply is relatively weak in May, while the configuration demand is growing. In June, the supply may increase, but the impact is expected to be limited. The demand for credit bonds is expected to continue, but potential changes in wealth management behavior around the mid - year point need attention [4]. - The strong performance of long - term credit bonds may continue in the short term, but the valuation fluctuation risk may increase. Factors such as the supply of credit bonds, the continuation of the "deposit transfer" phenomenon, and changes in wealth management behavior at the mid - year point should be focused on. It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of 5 - year high - grade credit bonds and appropriately select urban investment bonds for credit sinking around 2 - 3 years [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The yield of 1 - year urban investment bonds with various implicit ratings has generally declined by 12 - 13bp, with about 7 - 8bp from spread compression and about 5bp from the decline in risk - free interest rates. The yield of 5 - year urban investment bonds has also declined, but the decline is less than the spread compression [2]. - In the secondary market, the trading of credit bonds has shifted from the short - end to the long - end. As of May 22, the proportion of credit bonds with a remaining term of less than 1 year (considering exercise) has reached a one - year low, while the proportion of those with a term of more than 3 years has reached 30%, the third - highest in the past year [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, May is a small month for credit bond issuance. As of May 22, the net financing scale of the five major types of credit bonds is less than 30 billion yuan. The change in approval and supervision policies also indicates weak supply [4]. - On the demand side, the loose capital situation highlights the configuration value of credit bonds. The seasonal increase in wealth management scale in April and the "deposit substitution" effect brought about by the reduction of deposit interest rates support the strong demand for credit bonds [4]. Outlook and Strategy - In June, the supply of credit bonds may increase due to the peak maturity, but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. The "deposit substitution" effect may continue to drive the growth of wealth management scale and the demand for credit assets, but potential changes in wealth management behavior around the mid - year point need attention [4]. - It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of 5 - year high - grade credit bonds and appropriately select urban investment bonds for credit sinking around 2 - 3 years, and make comprehensive decisions based on the liquidity of individual bonds [6].

近期，焦煤期货价格持续走低，主力合约价格最低触及835元/吨，创下2016年8月以来的新低。这一现 象是多重因素共同作用的结果，其中核心矛盾集中体现在供需失衡以及市场预期转差上。 供应端：煤矿持续放量加剧市场压力 4月，我国原煤产量达到38930.6万吨，同比增长3.8%；1—4月，我国原煤累计产量为158473.8万吨，同 比增长6.6%；主要产煤大省山西、内蒙古和陕西的原煤产量分别同比增长16.6%、0.6%和3.5%。据机构 统计，4月，523家焦煤矿周度精煤产量为78.6万吨，较去年同期高出7.2%。国内焦煤供应充足持续对煤 价形成压制。 需求端：消费增长乏力继续拖累煤价 钢铁行业作为煤焦的主要消费领域，需求增长乏力，对焦煤的采购意愿下降。尽管铁水产量目前处于高 位，但在低利润的背景下，钢厂对焦煤采购态度谨慎，并无集中补库需求。而且，当前钢材市场正处于 淡、旺季转换阶段，上周247家钢厂日均铁水产量环比减少0.87万吨，有见顶的迹象。 焦煤的另一需求方焦化厂则面临钢厂连续压价的压力，今年焦炭已经历12轮提价，后续仍有第13轮提价 的可能，市场情绪谨慎，焦化厂采购大多推迟，这也导致煤焦销售不畅，厂内库存 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - ING reports that the phone call between US President Trump and Russian President Putin had minimal impact, leading to stable oil prices as the market digests the conversation [1] - Brent crude oil prices remain above $65 per barrel, with no significant breakthroughs from the Trump-Putin call [1] - Concerns arise that the US may withdraw from its role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could affect potential sanctions on Russia [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Developments - The London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a significant increase in aluminum inventory, with a daily surge of 92,950 tons, marking the highest level since May 2024 [1] - LME aluminum prices fell over 1% due to market sentiment being affected by Moody's downgrade of US debt ratings [1] - China's primary aluminum production reached a historical high of 3.75 million tons, with a cumulative output of 14.79 million tons in the first four months, reflecting a 3.4% year-on-year increase [1] Group 3: Agricultural Market Trends - Strong growth in US crop planting is noted, with corn planting at 78%, significantly surpassing the five-year average, and soybean planting at 66%, showing notable acceleration [2] - The favorable planting progress and expansion of corn acreage suggest a potential shift to a looser market for North American corn in the 2025/26 season [2] - If weather conditions remain normal during the growing season, CBOT corn prices may continue to face downward pressure, indicating a cyclical difference in agricultural markets compared to energy and metals [2]