在地缘政治波动、全球货币宽松和市场避险需求高企等因素的影响下，2025年大宗商品走势分化，行情呈现"冰火两重天"。贵金属单边走强，而能源价格则 持续低迷。以下是IG分析师分享的2026年大宗商品的展望报告。黄金：2025年创纪录上涨后，涨势能否延续？ 结构性需求 黄金带着历史性涨势进入2026年——但有趣的是，这一交易似乎仍未过度拥挤。即便在2024年和2025年连续突破纪录，黄金常被描述为"超买"，却几乎从未 被贴上"过度持有"的标签。而这一差异至关重要。机构持仓仍有扩张空间，意味着此轮涨势并非由过度投机驱动，而是依托尚未达峰的结构性需求。 2024-2025年黄金涨势的很大一部分源于政策——更准确地说，是政策不确定性。美国在进入2026年之际，政府支出高企、局部通胀持续，实际收益率不断 走低。再叠加美元走弱，过去两年支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑仍完好无损。 2025年的市场分化清晰印证了黄金对宏观经济的敏感性。6月至12月，随着实际收益率走低，黄金飙升至历史新高。这种反向关系仍是2026年黄金走势的最 大驱动因素之一。 图1：黄金vs实际收益率 各国央行仍是黄金结构性行情背后最强大的推动力之一。多个经济体的黄金 ...

当下，郑州的二手房市场，正经历一场悄然的变局。最近的数据显示，其二手房的挂牌量，从125807套变成了 124671套，减少了1100套。但背后的原因并不是交易活跃，而是大量业主选择暂时撤牌观望。他们的心态是："再 等等吧，万一明年春天能涨点呢？"这再次证实，市场信心的不足与价格博弈的僵局。 举个例子，位于二七区的"江山书香名邸"，就是这一现象的缩影。该小区近期挂牌价跌到了每平方米5000元，已 经回到了2015年的价格水平。而周边新交付的楼盘，凭借中央空调、新风系统等现代化配置，单价为13000元，开 发商也推出"首付分期"等促销手段。这种现象，让二手房东陷入尴尬："同样的地段，老房子既无品质优势，又无 金融支持，拿什么竞争？" 市场的分化，加剧了二手房流动的危机。根据"贝壳研究院"发布的数据显示，郑州二手房的平均成交周期，已经 延长到8个月以上，部分老旧小区，甚至一年内"零成交"。眼下，郑州业主的撤牌行为，更像是一种无奈的自保： 避免长期无人问津，导致心理预期进一步崩塌。 最后是房子的持有成本上升。房产税试点的预期、物业费的上涨等，让部分多套房的业主，选择了割肉离场。金 水区的一个业主，就把他自己算的一笔 ...

随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金现货价格在历史最高 位附近持稳。近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于2008年以来的最高价 位水平——距离历史最高位相差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈涨势有望推动铂金在 长达17年后创下历史新高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流 动性宽松预期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025 年全球铂金市场将迎来连续三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线 性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在2026年涨至华尔街心心 念念的5000美元超级关口并非不可能之事。 现货金条价格在每盎司4,335美元附近交投，周三已上涨约0.8%。它距离10月创下的历史最高点仅仅约 50美元。周四即将公布的通胀数据将被市场密切关注，以寻找美联储进一步降息意愿的线索。 上图显示，金价在创纪录高位附近交投，距离突破历史最高位仅一步之遥，投资者们焦点转向美国数据 与美国 ...

随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金现货价格在历史最高位附近持稳。 近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于2008年以来的最高价位水平——距离历史最高位相 差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈涨势有望推动铂金在长达17年后创下历史新高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流动性宽松预 期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025年全球铂金市场将迎来连续 三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时 间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在2026年涨至华尔街心心念念的5000美元超级关口并非不可能之事。 现货金条价格在每盎司4,335美元附近交投，周三已上涨约0.8%。它距离10月创下的历史最高点仅仅约50美元。周四即 将公布的通胀数据将被市场密切关注，以寻找美联储进一步降息意愿的线索。 美联储上周重磅宣布的连续三次降息——这对不支付利息的贵金属而言是一大利好，但是对于迈入明年的货币政策宽 ...

（原标题：?黄金与铂金携手冲高! 降息预期+地缘政治风险共振 资金蜂拥至贵金属） "实际收益率的变动方向变得更具支撑性，"来自澳大利亚Pepperstone Group Ltd.的策略师Dilin Wu表 示。"再叠加持续的地缘政治不确定性以及年末市场流动性更稀薄，黄金与铂金这类贵金属正在重新获 得其作为投资组合稳定器的重要角色。" 智通财经APP获悉，随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金 现货价格在历史最高位附近持稳。近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于 2008年以来的最高价位水平——距离历史最高位相差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈 涨势有望推动铂金在长达17年后创下历史新高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流 动性宽松预期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025 年全球铂金市场将迎来连续三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线 性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金现货价格在历 史最高位附近持稳。近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于2008年以来的最高价位水平 ——距离历史最高位相差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈涨势有望推动铂金在长达17年后创下历史新 高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流动性宽松预 期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025年全球铂金市场将迎来连续 三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时 间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在2026年涨至华尔街心心念念的5000美元超级关口并非不可能之事。 荷兰合作银行资深策略师Philip Marey近日指出，为了配合在美国中期选举前刺激经济，美联储预计将在2026年11月前 将利率降至中性水平甚至更低;这位策略师表示，考虑到美联储货币政策传导滞后性，美联储降息举措需要在10月前完 成才能影响11月中期选举，因此在特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with prices reaching new highs due to supply-demand imbalances, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased investment inflows [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - On December 17, 2025, spot silver prices broke through key levels of $65 and $66 per ounce, reaching a peak of $66.51 per ounce, marking a historical high [3][4]. - Year-to-date, silver prices have increased by approximately 120% to 130%, significantly outpacing gold's rise of about 60% [3][4]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The surge in silver prices is attributed to three main factors: supply-demand imbalance, changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and a significant influx of investment [4][5]. - Supply constraints are evident as 70%-80% of global silver comes from by-product mining, limiting the ability to increase production in response to price rises [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, including three reductions in 2025, have made silver more attractive as a non-yielding asset [7]. - Investment demand has surged, with notable increases in ETF holdings and futures positions, reflecting a strong interest in silver [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate potential for price corrections, while medium to long-term perspectives remain optimistic due to ongoing supply shortages and robust industrial demand [9][10]. - Industrial demand for silver is expected to grow significantly, driven by sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI, which are reshaping the traditional demand structure [12][13]. - The global silver supply deficit is projected to widen, with estimates suggesting a shortfall of 95 million ounces in 2025, increasing to 118 million ounces in 2026 [13][14]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to exercise caution in chasing high prices and to focus on risk management, particularly given the current high price levels [15][16]. - Monitoring macroeconomic indicators, such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments, is crucial for adjusting investment strategies [16].

《环球邮报》对此发文称，由于强劲的投资需求、美国关键矿产清单的加入以及一波动力买盘，这种白色金属已达到 新的纪录高位，准备在2025年底的价格结束时比年初上涨一倍以上。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间12月18日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨0.90%报4371.40美 元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨4.92%报66.44美元/盎司。 今年以来，现货白银涨幅已达约130%，是同期黄金期货涨幅的2倍。特别是近一段时间，全球白银市场正迎来历史性 时刻，短短数周内开启连续刷新纪录的上涨行情。12月17日，现货白银价格接连突破65美元/盎司、66美元/盎司两道 关口，并向67美元/盎司逼近。 对此有分析人士称，供需失衡、美联储降息以及资金涌入共同催生了白银本轮的"疯涨"行情。 另据LSEG的数据，今年白银有望创下自1982年以来的最佳年度表现。根据这一数据，白银的表现优于避险金属黄 金，预计黄金2025年将上涨64%。 报道还提到，WisdomTree的战略金属分析师Nitesh Shah表示："银坚实的基本面包括持续的供应赤字和来自人工智能 数据中心、太阳能电池和电动汽车行业的健康需求前景，这些 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is more pessimistic, with nickel and stainless steel prices breaking through support levels and declining. In the short term, the prices of both nickel and stainless steel are expected to remain weak and continue to search for a bottom. For nickel, medium - term attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and seasonal recovery signals in demand. For stainless steel, medium - term attention should be on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and seasonal recovery signals in demand. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling strategy and be cautious about bottom - fishing, waiting for the supply - demand inflection point before considering long - position layouts [1][3][4]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 114,540 yuan/ton and closed at 112,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 157,287 (+27,291) lots, and the open interest was 105,568 (358) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high and moving low, breaking through support and reaching a recent low. In the short term, due to the off - season for consumption, downstream demand is difficult to improve significantly, the supply - demand imbalance cannot be changed in the short term, and inventories continue to accumulate [1]. Nickel Ore - According to Mysteel, the nickel ore market is relatively calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, northern mines mainly fulfill previous orders, and mines are holding firm on prices. Downstream factories' production plans remain unchanged, and their mentality of bargaining for raw material nickel ore purchases may ease as they need to stock up before the Chinese New Year. In Indonesia, the (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to decline by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. Overall, the domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 118,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. Low - premium goods are in high demand. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by 300 yuan/ton to 5,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,693 (821) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,308 (-84) tons [2]. Group 4: Nickel Strategy - In the short term, the price is expected to remain weak and search for a bottom through oscillations. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and seasonal recovery signals in demand. The operation strategy suggests high - selling, being cautious about bottom - fishing, and considering long - position layouts after the supply - demand inflection point appears. For single - sided operations, range trading is recommended; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2602 opened at 12,480 yuan/ton and closed at 12,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 210,658 (+33,094) lots, and the open interest was 141,751 (-4,171) lots. The contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward pattern and continuing its recent weakness. The daily fluctuation was limited (only 195 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 1.55%). After a brief rise in the morning session, it continued to oscillate downward, and accelerated its decline in the late session, closing near the daily low, forming a relatively long - bodied negative line [3]. Spot - Market sentiment is more pessimistic. Spot prices have followed the decline of futures, but transactions remain difficult. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (-100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is also 12,650 (-100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 380 to 580 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 886.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - In the short term, the price is expected to remain weak and search for a bottom through oscillations. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and seasonal recovery signals in demand. The operation strategy suggests high - selling, being cautious about bottom - fishing, and patiently waiting for the supply - demand inflection point before considering long - position layouts. The single - sided operation is neutral; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting is to set the economic policy direction for 2026, which will influence the economic landscape for the next five years, especially in the context of complex global changes [2][3] - The meeting labeled the economic work for 2025 as "extraordinary," acknowledging the challenges posed by external factors such as trade wars and geopolitical conflicts, while also highlighting the successful completion of major economic goals for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - A notable shift in focus is the emphasis on the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction, indicating a more balanced approach to addressing both supply and demand issues in the economy [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting prioritized "domestic demand-led growth and building a strong domestic market" as the first of eight key tasks for 2026, followed by fostering new growth drivers and reforming competitive practices [4] - The macroeconomic policy direction for 2026 is defined as "seeking progress while maintaining stability," with a new emphasis on improving quality and efficiency rather than solely pursuing GDP growth [6] - The meeting highlighted the importance of "investing in people," indicating a shift towards recognizing human capital as a critical factor in economic development, which aims to enhance domestic market strength and innovation [9][10]