Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 | 联系方式：15000295386 | | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌16元至5692元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格下跌15至5755 元/吨，华南瓶片价格下跌 20 至 5830 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 29 手至 6.16 | | | | | 万手，空头持仓增加 473 手至 6.31 万手 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 33.22 万吨，环比+0.08 万吨。国内 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | | | | | 聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 72.7%，环比+0.1%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5295 元，环 | | | | | 比+23 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-154 元/吨，环比-25 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2025 ...

| = 2 S 5/4 V 1 | 1 | | --- | --- | | D | | | 1 | | | . 9 = . 1 15 1 | | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月03日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 API数据显示美国成品油及原油库存增加。俄罗斯里海管道联盟表示自11月中旬起进行维护的SPM-3预计将在未 来七天内恢复运行,恢复进度快于原计划。此前地缘局势升温导致油价反弹定价完成后今日有回吐部分地缘溢 价的迹象,基本面供需盈余扩大仍决定油价中枢存下行压力。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 当前燃料油市场核心驱动仍集中于供应端。高硫方面,短期因中东发货回落及地缘冲突持续获得支撑,前期焦 化利润与配额紧张亦提振其进料需求。展望后续，国内原油配额提前下发或对该需求形成分流。她缘方面，虽 俄乌谈判释放积 ...

周三临近欧洲开盘，黄金在短线反弹乏力后回调至日内整理区间下沿，但整体仍稳守 4200 美元之上。 随着风险偏好延续，本周的避险力量有所减弱，令金价上方空间暂时受限。不过，美元持续走软与地缘 局势的不确定性仍为金价提供底部支撑。在重点数据公布前，市场更倾向于保持克制。 隔夜美股期货延续稳步走高，投资者情绪整体偏暖，使黄金盘中反弹后快速遇阻，短线多头操作相对谨 慎。临近 ADP 就业报告与 ISM 服务业 PMI 公布，部分资金选择降低仓位，导致日内波动被压缩，黄 金维持弱势整理格局。 在关键数据出炉前，美元维持低位震荡，欧元与澳元早盘表现较为坚挺，而英镑则保持区间运行。美元 走弱令黄金始终处于 4200 上方的支撑带内，但最终的方向仍需等待周五公布的 PCE 物价指数提供更明 确的政策信号。 技术结构显示，隔夜金价在 4155—4150 区域获得稳固买盘支撑后反弹，目前 4200 仍是日内多空争夺的 关键。若能突破 4245—4250 的压制区，有望进一步打开上行空间，测试 4264—4265，并向 4300 心理 关口延伸。反之，一旦跌破 4200，预计会吸引逢低买盘回流，而 4150 依然是更深层的重要防守 ...

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.400≈国内金价。 我们来看一下黄金白银，简单的说一下基本面。最近，黄金白银上涨主要是两大因素，第一是美联储降息预期，美联储降息预期最近从前段时间的30%以下 提升到了80%以上。按市场的说法是，美联储12月份降息，基本上是板上钉钉了。另一个因素就是地缘局势，美国和委内瑞拉很紧张，亚太地区的日本，最 近一直在惹事儿。俄乌冲突那一块，谈判谈得不是太顺利，俄乌谈判还在进行。 对于操作上，不同的产品，不同的操作方式，我一直认为每个产品有每个产品的一个特点。所以说，对于杠杆产品每天要注意一点，我都会给关键位置；结 合我们提示的主要方向，比如是冲高做空为主，还是回落做多为主，参考关键位置去操作。 对于不带杠杆的产品，我最近反复强调，虽然说在下破3886趋势支撑以前我看可能会做反弹，但是我不建议去介入，因为这些产品不适合折腾。当前，确实 反弹了，我们错过来这波的上升，但是我觉得咱们做交易，你不要只看着行情，怎么我没有抓住，或者怎么咱们没有介入，你一定要注意它背后的一个风 险，这一点是最重要的。 机会多的是，但是，你如果盲目的进场被套了，或者挂在了 ...

在国际金价高位震荡、贵金属市场热度不减的背景下，白银成为近期最耀眼的"明星"。 最新数据显示，COMEX白银期货、伦敦现货白银最高分别触及57.245美元/盎司、56.533美元/盎司，均刷新历史新高；国内沪银期货主力合约最高一度升 至13239元/千克，也刷新该合约上市以来新高。 业内人士表示，宏观货币政策预期、地缘局势以及基本面供需结构等，均为近期白银价格上涨提供支撑，看好其中长期价格走势表现，但也需警惕短期波 动风险。 市场做多情绪持续升温 近期，白银价格延续强劲上扬态势。Wind数据显示，当地时间11月28日，COMEX白银期货一举突破57美元/盎司关口，最高触及57.245美元/盎司，创下 历史新高，大涨超6%；伦敦现货白银价格同样表现强势，最高攀升至56.533美元/盎司，亦创下历史最高纪录，涨超5%。 | < W | COMEX白银 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SI.CMX | | | | | | 57.085 | | 昨结 | 53.825 | 开盘 | 23.855 | | +3.260 | +6.06% | 总手 ...

在国际金价高位震荡、贵金属市场热度不减的背景下，白银成为近期最耀眼的"明星"。 最新数据显示，COMEX白银期货、伦敦现货白银最高分别触及57.245美元/盎司、56.533美元/盎司，均刷新历史新高；国内沪银期货主力合约最高一度升 至13239元/千克，也刷新该合约上市以来新高。 业内人士表示，宏观货币政策预期、地缘局势以及基本面供需结构等，均为近期白银价格上涨提供支撑，看好其中长期价格走势表现，但也需警惕短期波 动风险。 市场做多情绪持续升温 近期，白银价格延续强劲上扬态势。Wind数据显示，当地时间11月28日，COMEX白银期货一举突破57美元/盎司关口，最高触及57.245美元/盎司，创下 历史新高，大涨超6%；伦敦现货白银价格同样表现强势，最高攀升至56.533美元/盎司，亦创下历史最高纪录，涨超5%。 | < W | COMEX白银 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SI.CMX | | | | | | 57.085 | | 昨结 | 53.825 | 开盘 | 23.855 | | +3.260 | +6.06% | 总手 ...

大宗与能源：宏观资金与地缘预期主导走势。原油连续两日反弹，市场聚焦周末的 OPEC+ 会议，从目 前信息看，产量政策大概率维持稳定。 在美联储降息预期明显升温、地缘局势不断扰动的背景下，本周全球市场呈现出强烈的分化特征：实体 经济端的裁员信号不断累积，而资产端在宽松预期与科技盈利支撑下依旧保持韧性。美元连续走弱，黄 金在多重利好推动下稳稳处于高位区间。 关于政策路径，市场本周对美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的定价进一步抬升，概率一度上探至 82.8%– 87% 区间，属于本轮周期最明显的宽松押注之一。同时，哈西特（Kevin Hassett）成为下任美联储主席 的热门候选，其偏宽松的政策立场也强化了市场对未来降息节奏的预期，进而加大了美元的下行动能。 相较之下，欧洲央行继续按兵不动。最新会议纪要显示，大多数决策者认为没有必要在短期内急于继续 降息，暗示本轮周期或临近尾声，为欧元提供一定支撑。整体来看，本周外汇市场的基调仍是"美联储 偏鸽、欧洲维持观望、部分商品货币受本国因素提振"。 外汇市场：随着降息预期快速升温，美元吸引力明显下降。美元指数连续数日走低，预计将录得自 7 月 以来最弱的单周表现。欧元/美 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

新华财经北京11月28日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场11月28日涨多跌少，其中集运欧线主力合约涨超6%；液化气、沪银主力合约涨超3%；丙烯 主力合约涨超2%；SC原油、燃料油、聚丙烯、棕榈油、沪锡、对二甲苯、国际铜、橡胶、PTA、瓶片、玻璃、塑料、沪铅、PVC主力合约涨超1%。下跌品 种中，钯主力合约跌超2%；焦炭、红枣主力合约跌超1%。 其他品种方面，贵金属继续震荡走高，沪银更是增仓大涨超3%，盘中再创历史新高。 铂钯期货震荡收跌双焦继续走弱 11月28日，铂钯期货震荡调整，钯主力合约收跌2.63%；铂期货主力合约收跌0.59%。近期美联储降息概率提升、地缘局势依然偏紧，对贵金属形成提振， 铂钯盘面也受到支撑；其中铂由于自身偏紧的供需基本面，表现更强于钯。总体而言，银河期货表示，铂钯基本面暂未发生新的重要矛盾，其走势也以宏观 因素为主要驱动，和金银具有较高的关联度，处于高位盘整的态势之中。往后看，基于美国货币和财政双宽松的趋势暂未发生变化，且铂预计将在今年再度 出现约20吨（10%）的需求缺口，铂上行的空间或更大，钯供需相对充裕，但由于其在汽车催化剂领域对铂存在替代关系，预计将主要跟随铂的走势但上涨 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical (bottle chips) sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate with raw materials, and the reference range for the main contract is 5600 - 5780 yuan/ton. A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the main price of bottle chips dropped by 20 yuan to 5640 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell by 30 yuan to 5700 yuan/ton, and that in South China dropped by 30 yuan to 5740 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 679 lots to 5.13 million lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 1850 lots to 4.79 million lots [1] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 33.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 million tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 72.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. The production cost was 5295 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit was - 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] - In October 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 52.31 million tons, an increase of 5.53 million tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 533.21 million tons [1] - Concerns about geopolitical instability and Western holiday - induced trading slump led to a slight increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures were closed for the Western Thanksgiving holiday, and ICE Brent crude futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.33%. China INE crude futures 2601 contract rose 2.3 yuan to 445.1 yuan/ton and 6.5 yuan to 451.6 yuan/ton at night [1] - The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and uncertainties about the December FOMC meeting suppressed the temporarily improved market sentiment [1] Market Logic - Last week, the supply of bottle chips changed little, and downstream factories mainly replenished inventory for rigid demand. The expected commissioning of new plants had little impact on the market. Cost support was average, and downstream demand remained for just - in - time replenishment. The increase in bottle chip exports in October and the relaxation of Indian policies were beneficial to polyester products, but had limited impact on bottle chips [1] Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1]