Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced mixed results on June 25, with urea and red dates leading gains of over 2% [1] - The SC crude oil futures contract fell by over 8%, while high-sulfur fuel oil dropped more than 5% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1374.19 points, down 16.51 points or 1.19% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Urea and Red Dates - Urea futures saw a strong rebound with a 2.47% increase, recovering losses from earlier in the week due to increased demand and inventory depletion expectations [2] - Concerns over weather conditions affecting red date production led to a rise of over 2%, reaching a four-month high, despite current low consumption levels [2] Group 3: Other Commodities - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon both increased by over 1%, with ferrosilicon reaching a one-month high [3] - The overall market sentiment improved, contributing to gains in coke, stainless steel, industrial silicon, and nickel, all closing up by over 1% [3] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued to decline due to easing geopolitical tensions, with SC crude oil futures down 8.13% [4] - Despite a decrease in U.S. API crude oil inventories, concerns about supply disruptions remain, limiting the extent of price declines [4] - The outlook for oil prices remains cautious, with potential for further declines due to OPEC+ production increases and high tariffs affecting global demand [4] Group 5: Shipping and Freight Rates - The shipping market for the European route saw its fifth consecutive day of declines, with a drop of 3.07% in the main contract [5] - Freight rates for routes from Shanghai to European ports have decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [5] - The expectation of price increases by airlines has diminished due to weakened market sentiment and competition among carriers [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical situations. The U.S. announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and Iran declared retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A cease - fire between Israel and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Fundamentally, EIA U.S. commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, global oil inventories were basically flat, and diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The oil futures monthly spread continued to strengthen, approaching the 2022 level. The medium - to - long - term fundamental oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are greatly amplified by geopolitical factors [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From June 18 - 24, 2025, WTI decreased from $75.14 to $64.37, a change of - $4.14; BRENT decreased from $76.70 to $67.14, a change of - $4.34; DUBAI decreased from $70.84 to $69.13, a change of - $0.75. Other related products also showed price changes, such as SC decreasing by 55.90 yuan, and domestic gasoline - BRT increasing by 262.00 yuan [3] 2. Daily News - On June 24, Iranian President Pezeshkian announced that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel ended, and reconstruction work would start. Israel's plot to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and cause social unrest failed, while its important facilities were damaged. Israel's Prime Minister's Office confirmed the attack on an Iranian radar facility and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [3] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 427.7 million barrels, compared with an expected - 18.3 million barrels and a previous value of - 1013.3 million barrels [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 1.075 million barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 0.3 million barrels to 13.431 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 2.65% decrease), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.23 million barrels to 402.3 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.672 million barrels per day to 5.504 million barrels per day. The U.S. four - week average supply of crude oil products was 19.981 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease from the same period last year [4] - In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, the Shandong local refinery operating rate fell, the production of gasoline and diesel increased, the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased, gasoline and diesel were stocked up, the main refinery comprehensive profit rebounded, and the local refinery comprehensive profit improved [4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/25 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/24 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 574.5 | 518. 6 | -55. 90 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,原油价格跌幅明 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 837. 1 | 1007. 3 | 170. 23 | 显,利空PTA市场,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少利好仍 | | | | | | | 在,支撑现货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2005 | 1. 2673 | 0. 0668 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 899 | 859 | -40 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to reduced safe-haven demand and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with a focus on the support levels of gold prices [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On June 24, gold opened at $3368.29, reached a high of $3369.46, and then fell to a low of $3295.29 before closing at $3322.84, marking a daily decline of $45.45 or 1.34% [1]. - The price movement indicates increased bearish pressure, with gold prices dropping below the 30-day moving average but rebounding upon reaching the 60-day moving average support [1][3]. Influencing Factors - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine by Trump has diminished safe-haven buying, while Powell's comments about resisting interest rate cuts have further pressured gold prices [3][5]. - Despite the hawkish stance from Powell, there remains a potential for two interest rate cuts within the year, which could support gold prices in the long term [5][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently testing key support levels, including the 60-day and 100-day moving averages, with expectations of a rebound if these levels hold [1][8]. - The monthly chart indicates that gold has been relying on the 5-month moving average for support since the beginning of its bull market last year [7]. - If gold prices break below the 5-month moving average, it may lead to a wider range of fluctuations, with potential declines towards $2500 if the upward trend line is breached [6][8]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that gold could potentially reach above $4000 within the next year, contingent on geopolitical developments and economic conditions [5][6]. - However, if the tariff agreement between the U.S. and China is extended, gold may face prolonged high volatility or a peak in its bull market [5].

Core Insights - The easing of geopolitical tensions has led to a significant drop in gold prices, indicating a volatile market environment for investors [1] Group 1 - The current geopolitical situation has calmed, resulting in a sharp decline in gold prices [1] - Investors are advised to consider their strategies in light of the recent fluctuations in the gold market [1]

分析；日内将可关注美国第一季度经常帐(亿美元)、美国4月FHFA房价指数月率、美国4月S&P/CS20座 大城市未季调房价指数年率、美国6月谘商会消费者信心指数等众多数据，整体预期偏向利好金价，将 会对金价产生反弹提振。 同时还需关注，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话；英国央行行长贝利出席上议院经济事务委员会会议；以 及包括美联储主席鲍威尔和众多美联储官员的讲话情况。关注对金价造成的影响波动。 黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回撤之力，以及特朗普表示以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火而先行表现走低，一度 再探昨日低点附近及其下方，但美元指数昨日收跌，以及今日开盘继续走低，则限制了金价跌幅。使其 金价在回落调整的同时，仍具有反弹需求。 其美元指数，日图走势仍未能稳健运行在中轨上方，并再度走低在短期均线之下，空头力量加大，布林 带又再度偏向开口向下的预期，暗示后市将继续走低回落，而会对金价产生支撑，周图走势也未能反弹 至5-10周均线上方，并再度走低，也加强了后市看空压力，月图也依然处于回落压力之中； 故此，前景上，将维持看空不变，继续等待触及年初就已经给出的目标位200月均线附近，而会对金价 产生较大利好，所以，金价短期震荡调整，方向上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has eased, with oil prices falling and the Fed's rate - cut expectations rising. The prices of most non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, inventory changes, and import - export conditions, showing different trends of volatility [2][4]. - For copper, the short - term price may fluctuate upwards, and the futures structure may strengthen if the import loss further expands. For aluminum, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For lead, the price is expected to remain weak. For zinc, the market is affected by production and geopolitical factors, and the price volatility increases. For tin, the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. For nickel, the price may decline, and attention should be paid to the price change of Indonesian nickel ore. For lithium carbonate, there is a risk of weakening in the short term. For alumina, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. For stainless steel, there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [2][4][5]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price Performance**: The LME copper rose 0.35% to $9694/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78450 yuan/ton. The short - term price may fluctuate upwards, and the futures structure may strengthen if the import loss further expands [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 3325 tons to 95875 tons, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8 tons to 2.6 tons. The social inventory decreased by more than 10000 tons over the weekend, and the bonded area inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Import and Export**: The domestic copper spot import loss expanded to about 2500 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [2]. - **Scrap Copper**: The refined - scrap price difference slightly expanded to 1020 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper slightly increased [2]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: The LME aluminum rose 1.19% to $2592/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20445 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position increased by 19000 lots to 666000 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 tons to 4.8 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 15000 tons to 464000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2000 tons to 341000 tons [4]. - **Spot Market**: The East China spot premium over futures was 160 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.57% to 16926 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose 16 to $1998/ton. The price is expected to remain weak [5]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 43800 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - **Consumption and Production**: The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries has declined significantly, and the downstream consumption remains weak. The profit of primary lead smelting has increased, and the operating rate has reached a historical high of about 70% [5]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.44% to 21774 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 23.5 to $2648.5/ton. The market is affected by production and geopolitical factors, and the price volatility increases [7]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 7700 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - **Supply and Market Situation**: The import of zinc ore in May was good, but the import of zinc ingots was lower than expected. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. Geopolitical factors may affect the export of Iranian zinc ore [7]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 261880 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price is expected to oscillate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the short term [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 58 tons to 6444 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 30 tons to 2145 tons [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the import of tin ore in June is expected to decrease by 500 - 1000 tons. The terminal is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement willingness is weak [8]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel price was weak. The price may decline, and attention should be paid to the price change of Indonesian nickel ore [9]. - **Supply Chain**: The price of nickel ore may decline, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, the tight situation of intermediate products may improve, the price of nickel sulfate has declined, and the spot trading of refined nickel is okay [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: The MMLC index fell 0.17% to 59677 yuan. There is a risk of weakening in the short term [11][12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply clearance is slow, the downstream is in the off - season, and the high inventory suppresses the price [12]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: The alumina index rose 0.49% to 2897 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5400 tons to 37500 tons [14]. - **Market Situation**: The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12390 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 1157400 tons, a 1.04% increase [16]. - **Market Situation**: High - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome producers are under cost pressure, and the market is waiting and watching [16].

能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@c ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and market sentiment, indicating a potential bullish trend in the long term despite short-term volatility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On June 23, gold opened over $20 higher but later fell, reaching a low of $3347.10 before recovering slightly to close at $3368.96, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $48.78 [1][3]. - The price was initially supported by geopolitical tensions but faced resistance due to profit-taking and comments from President Trump regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1][3]. - The outlook for June 24 suggests continued volatility, with gold prices expected to test previous lows while being supported by a declining U.S. dollar index [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. current account and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to positively impact gold prices [5]. - The article highlights that the market's focus is shifting back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic impact of tariffs, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of prices potentially exceeding $4000 in the next year due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6][7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a bullish trend, supported by moving averages, although there are concerns about a potential peak in the near term [9][11].

郑氏点银：黄金日线反复收报长影线十字，坚持看涨企稳等上冲 回顾上周五行情走势及出现的技术点【详情查看公众号发布】： 今日行情分析解读： 白银方面：日线中轨上移35.2，此位置上维持看涨为主；短期阻力就是5日、10日，集中36.4一线，只有等它突破站上之后，才能回归强势格局去 上破前高37.3； 日内支撑35.8，此位置上展开震荡慢涨，然后就看36.4测试得失； 原油方面：近期一直依托日线5均线不断走高，不管高开力度有多大，都会回落确认此均线再进行企稳拉升；今日5均线在73.7-73.6一线，而由于 波动率放大，容易刹不住车，搞一些刺破，欧盘最低触及73.15开始稳定； 今晚以它下方作为防守，再回落试探5均线稳定则继续看涨； 以上是笔者技术剖析的几个观点，作为参考，也是十二年以来，每日12小时以上盯盘、复盘所积累的技术经验总结，每天都会公开技术点，配合 文字和视频解读，想学习的朋友，结合实际走势可以去对比参考；认可思路的可以参考操作，带好防守，风控第一；不认可的就当飘过就行；感 谢大家的支持和关注； 【文章观点仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎，理性操作，严格设损，控制仓位，风控第一，盈亏自负】 第一，黄金周线级 ...