张尧浠：金价牛市偏技术性跳水、短期将迎筑底反弹修复 黄金市场上周：国际黄金创历史记录性涨幅后，又创历史记录性大跌，最终收取巨长上影线倒垂形态，对于后市来讲，有再度陷入阶段性见顶调整的预期， 以及数周的横盘震荡整理的趋势。但整体的牛市趋势依然有效，每次阶段性的调整，在当下来看，依然还是再度的入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自周初高开于5005.58美元/盎司，并先行连续攀升，于周四进一步录得当周高点5595.97美元后，大幅跳水后，剧烈震荡，并到周五时段， 又显史诗级跳水行情，收复当周涨幅的同时，还进一步跌至4588.52美元当周低点，最终有所震荡回升，收于4860.31美元，相对于前周收盘价4982.08美元， 周振幅613.89美元，收跌121.77美元，跌幅2.44%。 影响上，受地缘局势不确定性再度升级，以及市场对于1月底前美国政府停摆的担忧，再加上特朗普威胁对加拿大韩国等加征关税威胁，和对于美元的进一 步言论等等，助力金价先行攀升冲击历史高点； 但由于地缘局势有所缓和，美联储决议保持利率不变，鲍威尔也未提及降息，暗示后市在5月份之前都不会降息，再加上美股市场的连续暴跌，也引发了贵 金属的获利弥补，同时，在 ...

只一夜，黄金从"冲天炮"变成"跳楼机"。 1月29日至30日，全球贵金属市场上演年度最刺激的一幕：伦敦现货黄金刚摸到5600美元/盎司的历史高点，转头就被"按头"砸下去，短时间内暴跌超400美 元；白银盘中跌幅一度达到10%。国内沪金、沪银夜盘同步跳水，上期所紧急发布风险提示。分析师一句"暴涨必暴跌"，突然变得格外扎心。 这次闪崩不是偶然，而是 美联储政策风向、算法交易踩踏、地缘局势降温三股力量叠加的结果。 一、美联储风声突变：第一次刹车踩下去。 这波暴跌的导火索，是市场突然开始押注：美联储关键岗位可能换上更偏鹰派的人选。 这意味着： 降息节奏可能被推迟。 高利率可能维持更久。 黄金这种"无息资产"吸引力下降。 金价前期涨得太猛，本来就透支了宽松预期。当市场意识到"宽松没那么快来"，多头信心瞬间松动，第一波抛售随之出现。 二、算法交易集体踩踏：第二次刹车直接把盘面踩崩。 真正让行情从"下跌"变成"闪崩"的，是程序化交易的连锁反应。 现代市场里，大资金不是人按按钮，而是算法自动执行。当天的典型链条是： 1. 金价从5600美元掉头。 2. 触发第一批止盈。 3. 跌幅扩大，触发更多止损。 5. 流动性瞬间变差， ...

| 国校期货 11 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月30日 | | 黄金 | 白银 女女女 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 女女女 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属剧烈波动,盘中振幅超过10%。市场聚焦地缘局势变化,俄乌方面普京同意部分停火一周,美伊 依然处于焦灼状态，随时可能发动重大打击，不过特朗普表示计划与伊朗进行对话。此外特朗普称利率应下 降2到3个百分点，计划今晚公布美联储主席人选。市场消息称此前偏鹰派的沃什可能超出市场预期的成为新 任主席。短期信息繁杂,市场波动风险高，控制仓位谨慎参与。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势 ...

去年12月下旬以来，豆油期价持续上涨，并创下逾一年来新高。 市场人士普遍认为，本轮豆油期价强势上涨是多重因素共振的结果。 "美国生物柴油政策预期回升与国际原油价格上涨，共同推动全球油脂价格普涨。"中州期货农产品分析 师吴晓杰表示，美国EPA拟提高2026年生物质柴油配额，并调整豁免比例。此消息推动CBOT豆油价格 走高，并传导至国内。此外，地缘局势紧张推动原油走强，进一步为油脂板块走高提供了支撑。 山东齐盛期货油脂油料分析师刘瑞杰则认为，棕榈油价格走强，导致豆棕价差扩大，从而驱动豆油期价 上涨。 刘瑞杰表示，国内豆油表观需求持续高位，去年四季度以来持续去库，预计库存低点可能出现在3—4月 份。 吴晓杰补充道，受国内春节前备货需求影响，部分油厂提货已排队至下月初，导致商业库存较前月下降 约15%。同时，菜油因进口受限持续去库，豆棕价差倒挂也促使市场需求向豆油倾斜，共同助推豆油价 格走强。 豆油不仅需求端有支撑，供应端也很乐观。徽商期货油脂油料分析师郭文伟告诉记者，预计2025/2026 年度巴西大豆丰产1.76亿~1.81亿吨。国内缺豆担忧或被高估。虽然一季度大豆到港量减少，但国家通 过拍卖储备大豆，成交超20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unaddressed risk of escalating geopolitical situation and the US considering a maritime blockade on Iran, the far - month contracts are oscillating strongly. The spot settlement is slightly below market expectations. The demand for shipping is reaching its peak and then declining, and the supply shows a slight decrease in January's shipping capacity. The traditional off - season for shipping rates is approaching, and the expected rush of shipments is less than anticipated. Geopolitical issues and weather conditions may affect shipping schedules [6][7] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading of the 04 contract, and partially take profits and hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - Different futures contracts have different closing prices, price changes, and volume and position changes. For example, EC2602 closed at 1,717.5, down 1.5 points or 0.09%, with a trading volume of 432.0 hands (up 16.76%) and an open interest of 2,812.0 hands (down 11.74%) [4] - The month - spread structure shows various price differences and their changes. For instance, the EC02 - EC04 spread is 468, down 22.2 [4] 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - Various container freight rates show different degrees of decline. For example, the SCFIS European Line index is 1859.31 points, down 4.86% week - on - week and 24.61% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1457.86, down 7.39% week - on - week and 36.36% year - on - year [4] 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month contract is priced at $63.17 per barrel, up 1.49% week - on - week and down 10.85% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month contract is priced at $67.69 per barrel, up 1.39% week - on - week and down 8.7% year - on - year [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks have not been resolved, and the far - month contracts are oscillating strongly. The spot settlement of the European Line is slightly below expectations. The demand for shipping is peaking and then declining, and the supply of shipping capacity in January has decreased slightly. The traditional off - season for shipping rates is approaching, and the rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitical and weather factors may affect shipping schedules [6][7] 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: It is recommended to wait and see for the 04 contract due to many short - term disturbances, differences in the rush of shipments, and unresolved Iranian situation risks [8] - Arbitrage: Partially take profits and hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread [9] 3.3 Industry News - Trump warned that the next attack on Iran would be more severe, and Iran is willing to dialogue with the US on the basis of mutual respect [10][11] - Israel is preparing for possible retaliation from Iran due to a potential US attack. The US is considering a maritime blockade on Iran [11] - Maersk reported that weather has affected freight traffic to and from Northern Europe, and the docks in the western Mediterranean have stopped operating [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing various shipping - related indices and container freight rates over different time periods, including the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes [13][18][20]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 IICEREK 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/1/29 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 集 | 现值 | 1458 | 1209 | 2084 | 1294 | 2896 | 1595 | | | 前值 | 1574 | 1210 | 2194 | 1305 | 3163 | 1676 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -7.39% | -0.09% | -5.01% | -0.84% | -8.44% | -4.83% | | # IE | | | | | | | | | | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | ...

Group 1: Consumer Sector Opportunities - The focus on expanding domestic demand will be a key policy priority in 2026, with consumption being reinforced as the main engine for economic growth [4] - Short-term measures like trade-in policies are expected, but long-term growth is anticipated to come from service consumption, which is seen as a critical growth source [4] - The government emphasizes new solutions to support the expansion of new consumption and service consumption, indicating a long-term trend [4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to segments with long-term growth potential, particularly in the context of low expectations and valuations in the consumer sector [4][5] Group 2: AI and Technological Integration - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming a significant theme in the global market, with its applications expanding across various industries, particularly in finance, manufacturing, healthcare, and consumer sectors [6] - China's advantages in hardware manufacturing and a rapidly evolving AI ecosystem are driving the integration of AI into various sectors, enhancing economic resilience [6] - Despite some overheating in certain segments, industries like gaming, consumer electronics, and robotics are expected to maintain growth potential due to their alignment with existing market demands [6] Group 3: Investment Outlook for the Greater Bay Area - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed positively due to strong capital inflows and active IPO activities, with policy support for AI expected to attract further investments [7] - A barbell strategy is recommended for onshore and offshore Chinese stocks, balancing technology stocks with high-dividend quality state-owned enterprises for downside protection [7] Group 4: Global Economic Trends and Risks - Key macro factors influencing asset risks in 2026 include the monetary policy paths of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, which could affect interest-sensitive assets [8] - Geopolitical events may cause market volatility, particularly impacting oil prices, but current oversupply in the oil market mitigates some risks [9] - The divergence in global growth, with strong performance in the US versus challenges in Europe, affects capital flows and asset performance across regions [9] - Increased correlation among asset classes necessitates diversified cross-asset, cross-industry, and cross-regional strategies to manage risks effectively [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly up by 0.02%, the Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.17%, and the S&P 500 experiencing a minor decline of 0.01% [1] - The semiconductor sector led the gains, with Intel's stock soaring by 11% following better-than-expected earnings, and Seagate Technology's stock jumping by 19% due to increased demand for AI storage [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks performed well overall, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.32%. Notable individual performances included Alibaba and NetEase, both rising over 1%, and New Oriental surging nearly 5% [1] - The precious metals market continued its strong performance, with spot gold prices surpassing $5,500 and spot silver prices exceeding $117 [1] - Short-term market focus is on geopolitical situations and policy signals, with potential support for precious metals and growth stocks if Fed rate cut expectations persist or Middle East tensions escalate [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future market will be more affected by geopolitical situations. Pay attention to the Fed's decision early on Thursday. In the short - term, due to the combination of news and capital sentiment, the market will maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend. For gold, take profit on long positions when the price is high, and for single - side trading, buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options instead of going long [1]. - For silver, the rising raw material cost may accelerate the replacement of silver with other metals by enterprises, suppressing industrial demand. However, new demand in fields such as AI is expected to support the bullish view on silver prices. Regulatory restrictions have cooled speculative sentiment, and ETF holdings have continued to decline. But due to capital fluctuations, silver prices may still experience sharp intraday declines and fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to risk - control measures of exchanges and maintain the idea of going long on dips [1]. - For platinum and palladium, supported by their macro - financial attributes and the tight supply pattern, their prices are linked to the rise of gold, and the price center continues to rise. However, the easing of the supply shortage in the London spot market may limit the upside space. The supply - demand factors boost the futures of palladium, with an expected high - opening and then a decline. It is advisable to go long at low prices [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 1186.20 yuan/gram, up 37.82 yuan or 3.29% from January 27 [1]. - AG2604 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 29219 yuan/kilogram, up 3.25% from January 27 [1]. - PT2606 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 694.80, down 10.90 or - 1.54% from January 27 [1]. - PD2606 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 504.00 yuan/gram, down 19.00 or - 3.63% from January 27 [1]. 3.2 Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 5411.00, up 231.40 or 4.47% from January 27 [1]. - COMEX silver主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 116.62, up 4.28 or 3.81% from January 27 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 2705.10 dollars/ounce, up 60.00 or 2.27% from January 27 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 2095.50, up 145.00 or 7.43% from January 27 [1]. 3.3 Spot Prices - London gold: The current price was 5413.81, up 233.58 or 4.51% from the previous value [1]. - London silver: The current price was 116.61 dollars/ounce, up 4.70 or 4.20% from the previous value [1]. - Spot platinum: The current price was 2407.00, down 243.00 or - 9.17% from the previous value [1]. - Spot palladium: The current price was 2014.00, up 34.00 or 1.72% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D: The current price was 1184.04 yuan/gram, up 41.15 or 3.60% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D: The current price was 29310 yuan/kilogram, up 578 or 2.01% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995: The current price was 670 yuan/gram, down 15 or - 2.22% from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract: The current value was - 2.16, up 3.33 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract: The current value was 91, down 341 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold: The current value was 5.08, up 6.87 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.60% [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver: The current value was - 0.02, down 0.10 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. 3.5 Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver: The current value was 46.40, up 0.29 or 0.64% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver: The current value was 40.60, up 0.02 or 0.04% from the previous value [1]. - NYMEX palladium/platinum: The current value was 1.29, down 0.07 or - 4.81% from the previous value [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium: The current value was 1.38, up 0.03 or 2.17% from the previous value [1]. 3.6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 4.26%, up 0.02 or 0.5% from the previous day [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 3.56%, up 0.03 or 0.8% from the previous day [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield: The current value was 1.90%, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - US dollar index: The current value was 96.35, up 0.58 or 0.61% from the previous day [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate: The current value was 6.9434, up 0.0098 or 0.14% from the previous day [1]. 3.7 Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory: The current value was 103029, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory: The current value was 208368, down 35876 or - 6.59% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory: The current value was 35877200, down 64302 or - 0.18% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory: The current value was 411684635, down 3461662 or - 0.83% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warrants: The current value was 18833072, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver registered warrants: The current value was 107674552, down 4734690 or - 4.21% from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF position: The current value was 1090, up 2.58 or 0.24% from the previous value [1]. - SLV silver ETF position: The current value was 15636, down 211.43 or - 1.33% from the previous value [1].

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