Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, tariff fluctuations, and market uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and different strategies are proposed for different contracts [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Most commodities are falling, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and wide - range market fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and there has been a small price increase to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [2]. - The overall market atmosphere is bearish, with wide - range market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. Freight Index Changes - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% from the previous period [1]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1789.50 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 876.57 points, down 0.5% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the July services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1]. - The US July manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the July services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the July composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2]. - As of July 31, the US average effective tariff rate on imported goods reached 18.9%, the highest since 1934. Tariff policies will reduce the US GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and 2026, increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026, and increase the average household expenditure by $2400 in 2025 [4]. Trading Data - On August 1, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1424.0, with a decline of 0.29%, a trading volume of 35,700 lots, and an open interest of 52,400 lots, an increase of 558 lots from the previous day [2]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to take a light - position long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points) and partially take profits; a light - position short on the EC2512 contract is recommended, and profit - taking is advised. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, the market is mainly in a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Policy and Geopolitical Information - Trump has imposed additional tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further impacts transit trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1 [2]. - The Israeli opposition leader called for an end to the Gaza war, while Hamas stated that it would not give up armed resistance without the full restoration of national rights [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline on August 4, with the military industry sector performing strongly, showing resilience against the market downturn [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) recorded a rise of 1.31%, with key holdings such as Great Wall Military, Aerospace Electronics, and Zhenxin Technology increasing by over 7% [1] - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported significant military actions against Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting the increasing importance of air power in modern warfare and the high technological barriers in the military industry [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, which has a strong military attribute, with 97.86% of the index comprising military-related sectors [1] - The weight of aerospace equipment in the ETF is 66.8%, significantly higher than that of the CSI Military and CSI National Defense indices, providing investors with an efficient way to capture core military aerospace opportunities [1] - Zhejiang Securities predicts that ongoing geopolitical conflicts will lead to a reassessment of the value of China's defense and military enterprises, as military exports gain practical validation in overseas conflicts [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is bearish, with significant declines in commodities and the futures market showing weak oscillations and high volatility. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading environment is complex, and it is advised to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market News - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, down 4.66%, with a trading volume of 46,300 lots and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term futures market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and partially take profits; they were also advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with high volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, it was recommended to take profits when prices rose, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is bearish, with significant declines in commodities and a weak and volatile market. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1][3]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3]. - The market fundamentals are relatively stable, but the overall sentiment is bearish, possibly due to capital outflows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the European route price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. The preliminary value of the service - sector PMI was 50, a two - month high, with an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 49.7. The preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; the service - sector PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [2]. 3.3 Policy and Market Events - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with a small price increase to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, down 4.66%, with a trading volume of 46,300 lots and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the 2510 contract at below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300) and partially take profits; short on the EC2512 contract with a light position, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical and Other Events - On July 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson hoped that the US would work with China to promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations [5]. - On July 30 evening local time, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces attacked three targets in Israel with five drones, and Israel did not respond [5]. - An Israeli senior official submitted a response to the cease - fire negotiation mediation party on July 29 evening, and Hamas did not respond [5].

2025年7月31日 第运日报 (航运研究小组) 中美经贸会议平稳结束，盘面冲高回落，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。 SCFIS. NCFI运价指数 分 字目行榜 Hou 以色列的本-古里安国际机场，导致机场运营中断。以色列国防军发表声明称，当天稍早时成功拦截了一枚由也门胡塞武装发射的弹道导弹。目前暂无人员 六中场 伤亡或财产损失的报告。 财联社7月30日电，周三的数据显示，德国经济在第二季委输了0.1%，与第一季0.4%的增长形成对比，主要原因是美国需求放缓，此前几个月由于预期美 国将提高关税，进口南大量采购德国商品。德国统计局表示，第二季的投资出现下降，但与前三个月相比，消费与政府支出则有所上升。 XL, by 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油副烈波动 SCFIS与期货价格走势 上海集表相指数 SCEISBA SCHIRGE -EC2510 -EC2512 -EC2602 -EC2604 -EC2606 -SCFIS指数(石油) 12,000.00 6,100 10,000.00 5,600 5,100 8,000.00 4,600 4,100 6,000.00 3,600 3,100 4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, tariff hikes, and high negotiation difficulty, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract, partially take profits, and take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, paying attention to subsequent market trends and setting stop - losses [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions for arbitrage strategies [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [3]. - On July 30, the main contract 2510 closed at 1468.7, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 66,300 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, an increase of 4148 lots from the previous day [4]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, expected to be 49.8, the same as the previous value; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, expected to be 50.5, the same as the previous value; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, expected to be - 6, higher than the previous value of - 8.1 [3]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, back above the critical point [3]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [3]. Policy and Event Impact - Trump continued to impose tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases [4]. - The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been determined, with a slight price increase [4]. - The China - US economic and trade talks ended. It was stated that the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs that had been suspended and China's counter - measures would continue to be extended for 90 days. The overall market sentiment was strong, and the market rose and then fell back [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), partially take profits; take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

也门胡塞武装：我们将针对任何与以色列港口有业务往来的企业所属船只，无论其国籍如何。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. energy sector, particularly oil and gas, has been severely impacted by the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, leading to a significant reduction in energy exports to China [1][4][5] Energy Imports from the U.S. - China has almost completely stopped importing three major energy sources from the U.S.: coal, crude oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) as of June [1][4] - In June, China did not import any crude oil from the U.S. for the first time in nearly three years, while the value of coal imports from the U.S. dropped to just a few hundred dollars compared to over $90 million in June of the previous year [1][4] - The U.S. LNG exports to China have also been zero for four consecutive months, indicating a significant decline in trade [1][4] Tariff Impacts - The Chinese government imposed tariffs on U.S. energy products, including a 15% tariff on coal and LNG, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, as a countermeasure to the trade war [1][5] - The high tariffs have made U.S. energy products less economically viable for Chinese buyers, leading to a strategic shift towards other suppliers [5][6] Market Dynamics - The share of U.S. LNG in China's imports has decreased from 11% in 2021 to just 6% last year, reflecting a broader trend of diversification in energy sourcing [4][6] - China is increasingly sourcing oil from countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, with the U.S. barely making it into the top ten suppliers [5][6] Long-term Implications - Experts suggest that the cessation of U.S. crude oil imports by China may have long-lasting effects, with Chinese importers unlikely to sign new contracts for U.S. LNG [4][6] - The geopolitical tensions and U.S. sanctions are prompting China to enhance its domestic energy production and seek alternative energy sources, reducing reliance on U.S. imports [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, trading is highly challenging. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position in the 2510 contract below 1300 and consider taking profits if the market continues to decline. A light short position in the EC2512 contract is also suggested. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3]. - Due to the volatile international situation, the arbitrage strategy is mainly based on positive spreads, but it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [3]. 3. Key Points from Relevant Contents Shipping Market Conditions - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% from the previous period [1]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% from the previous period [1]. - The latest quotes from liner companies for August show a mixed trend, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood regarding future freight rates. The 2510 contract has seen a reduction in positions and a downward trend in a wide - range volatile market [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Data - The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate adjustments, and the spot market has tested the waters with a slight price increase [2]. - In June, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 50, and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1]. - On July 22, the Yemeni Houthi rebels launched a missile at Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport. On July 21, the Israeli military attacked Houthi military facilities in the port of Hodeidah, and the Houthi rebels responded with drone attacks [4]. - On July 23, it was reported that high - level officials from the US, Israel, and Syria were expected to hold talks on July 24 to discuss security arrangements in southern Syria [4]. Trading Data - On July 23, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 2.72, down 2.72% with a trading volume of 59,500 lots and an open interest of 50,100 lots, a decrease of 1603 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin to 28%, and the daily opening limit to 100 lots [3].

2025年7月24日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 班轮公司最新8月报价涨跌互现，盘面继续回撤，近月保持基差修复，今日若回调可考虑加仓，设置好止损, | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月21日 | 7月18日 | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1147.96点，较上期下跌5.75% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1440.25点，较上期上涨0.35% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1181.87点，较上期下跌0.40% | | 7月18日 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 | 7月18日 | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% | | ...