记者丨冯紫彤 庞华玮 刘雪莹 2月6日晚，贵金属快速拉升，截至发稿，现货黄金涨超3%，在4920美元/盎司上方；现货白银 涨超7%，约75.25美元/盎司。 编辑丨杨希 | W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 75.247 | 70.902 | 昨结 | | | 开盘 | | 70.949 | | +4.345 | +6.13% 0.00 | 总量(kg) | | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 76.282 0 | 持 仓 | | 참 | 2 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 64.035 0 | 壇 ਦੇ | | | | | O | | સ્ત્ર B4 | 五日 | 目K | 周Ｋ | 月K | | 重名 | | | ෆ්‍රා | | | | 均价: -- | | 盘口 | | | 77.769 | | | | 9.69% 卖1 | | 75.331 | C | | | | | | | 第1 | 75.247 | O ...

2026年伊始，黄金行情持续牵动全球投资者的神经。 暴涨——新高——暴跌——回暖——震荡，剧烈的波动之下，市场情绪在狂热与恐慌之间反复切换。有 人止损离场，也有人逢低抄底；也有投资者跑步进场，而后在行情震荡中饱受煎熬…… 截至2月6日11时，国际黄金现货价格约在4850美元/盎司上下，较年初上涨约12%，表现虽超过多数主 流市场指数。然而，与1月29日创下的历史高点相比，金价仍回调超过700美元/盎司。 市场分歧正在加剧。"黄金还能买吗？""该选积存金还是黄金ETF？""这一轮上涨究竟能走多远？"投资 者的疑问纷至沓来。与此同时，已有部分投资者将目光悄然转向其他小金属，试图在金银狂潮之外，提 前捕捉下一个可能起飞的市场。 近日，针对当前黄金市场的剧烈波动与后续走向，21世纪经济报道记者特别对话了中信证券有色金属行 业首席分析师敖翀，试图厘清本轮行情的核心驱动，探寻价格剧烈波动的背后逻辑。 在交流中，敖翀明确指出，当前黄金的上涨趋势尚未完结，流动性预期是当下驱动黄金价格走势的核心 力量。此外，持续的地缘政治冲突也为黄金提供了阶段性的避险动力。 敖翀进一步分析称，随着流动性的持续释放，中国和全球经济有望在未来6- ...

Global Economic Landscape - The global economic growth rate is projected to be around 3.0% in 2026, with the US stabilizing at approximately 2%, while the EU and Japan are expected to grow at 1.4% and 0.5% respectively [2][36] - Emerging economies like China, India, and the UAE are maintaining mid-to-high-speed growth, becoming significant engines of global economic development [2][43] Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies are becoming mainstream, with developed and emerging economies maintaining high fiscal deficit rates of around 5.0% and 6.0% respectively, leading to rising government debt levels [2][36] - The sustainability of government debt is increasingly being challenged, particularly in the US and Japan [2][36] Supply Chain Restructuring - The trend of localization and regionalization is reshaping global supply chains, with the US controlling high-end segments, China becoming an indispensable "central node," and ASEAN and Latin America attracting investments due to their geographical advantages [2][36] Commodity Prices - Commodity price trends are diverging, with gold prices expected to rise above $6,000 per ounce driven by geopolitical risks and Fed rate cut expectations, while international crude oil prices may further decline to around $57 per barrel [2][36] Technological and ESG Developments - The AI sector continues to innovate, with multi-agent systems and humanoid robots gaining attention, although investment bubble risks exist [2][36] - ESG development is progressing with significant disparities, as Europe leads, China advances steadily, and the US lags behind, moving towards sustainable development [2][36] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical conflicts are identified as the largest risk in 2026, with the US executing Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and increasing tensions in regions like Latin America and the Arctic [7][15] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as a war of attrition, while the Middle East faces heightened risks due to the spillover effects of the Israel-Palestine conflict [15][20] Central Bank Policies - There are significant differences in global central bank monetary policies, with the Fed expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, potentially cutting rates 2-3 times in 2026 [24][27] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain a "middle strategy," keeping rates around 2% to balance inflation and growth [28][30] - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising rates to around 1%, facing challenges from policy contradictions and currency pressures [34][36]

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows structural recovery, with GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, meeting the target set during the "Two Sessions" [12] - Industrial production remains resilient, with industrial added value in December 2025 rising to 5.2% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors outperforming with growth rates of 9.4% and 9.2% respectively [12] - Investment growth has slowed, with fixed asset investment down 3.8% year-on-year, while consumption shows mixed performance, with retail sales growth dropping to 0.9% in December 2025 [12][14] - Exports have rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in December 2025, particularly in high-tech products like automobiles and integrated circuits, which grew by 71.6% and 47.8% respectively [14][15] A-Share Market - In January, the A-share market experienced a "New Year Rally," leading to a spring market trend, with a significant increase in trading volume, averaging over 30 trillion yuan [9][12] - The outlook for February suggests a stable pre-holiday market, with a high likelihood of a "spring market" rally post-holiday, focusing on sectors with clear policy guidance and high earnings certainty [5][9] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market in January saw a continuation of monetary easing, with bond yields declining [5][9] - The outlook for February indicates a focus on structural opportunities within a fluctuating market environment [5][9] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to show a fluctuating pattern, while the Chinese yuan is anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to a lack of significant rebound in the dollar and strong potential settlement forces [5][9] Overseas Markets - The US bond market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by economic fundamentals and changes in interest rate expectations [5][9] - The US stock market is projected to experience fluctuations, supported by resilient economic data, but scrutiny on technology companies' earnings may increase during the earnings season [5][9] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain strong, buoyed by domestic spring market dynamics and regulatory easing on IPOs [5][9] Commodities - Gold prices are facing adjustment pressure after a rapid increase, with expectations of wide fluctuations [5][9] - Oil prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and increased energy consumption during winter [5][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's overseas investments are facing unprecedented risks due to geopolitical tensions and actions by other countries, particularly the United States [4][5] - China's significant investments in Venezuela, Panama, and Australia are highlighted as being jeopardized by foreign political maneuvers, leading to potential financial losses [5][6] - The article emphasizes the need for China to withdraw its overseas investments and redirect funds into domestic markets to ensure economic stability and growth [4][6][8] Group 2 - In Venezuela, China's investments in oil development and infrastructure projects are at risk due to U.S. pressure on the Venezuelan government to cease trade with China [5] - In Panama, Chinese companies have invested over $1.8 billion to upgrade ports, but the Panamanian government has reclaimed operational control, rendering the investment nearly worthless [5] - In Australia, the investment by China's Landbridge Group in Darwin Port is threatened by the Australian government's intention to terminate the lease, posing significant financial risks [5] Group 3 - The article points out that China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds amount to $682.6 billion as of November 2025, which could be at risk if U.S.-China relations deteriorate [5] - The domestic market in China is described as having the largest potential for investment, particularly in infrastructure and technology sectors, which are currently underfunded compared to developed countries [6][8] - The call for increased domestic investment is framed as a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with overseas investments while enhancing national economic resilience and competitiveness [8]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 2026/2/3 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 棉纱 | 沥青 | | | | 液化石油气 | 棉花 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 尿素 | 十债 | 硅铁 | | | | 红枣 | 五债 | 苹果 | | | | 生猪 | 三十债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | PVC | 燃油 | | | | | 铁矿石 | 二债 | | | | | 甲醇 | 白糖 | | | | | 塑料 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 工业硅 | | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 烧碱 | | | | | | 橡胶 | | | | | | 碳酸锂 | | | | | | 锰硅 | | | | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | | | 纸浆 | | | | | | 纸浆 | | | | | | 焦煤 ...

期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 原油期货：地缘溢价已充分 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：过去一段时间围绕美伊局势的地缘炒作是油价上涨的核心驱动。根据去年经验， 若地缘政治冲突威胁到霍尔木兹海峡，油价最高反弹幅度可达20%，即WTI66美元/桶、Brent72美元/桶、 SC500元/桶左右，上周最高油价恰好到达这个高度后便回落。后市若地缘事件并未在此基础上进一步激化， 则该价格高点或已成为本轮反弹行情的阻力。据央视报道，伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐当地时间2月1日 在接受媒体采访时表示，伊朗对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"，地缘冲突有所降温。 2、对于后市。OPEC+一季度暂停增产，但2025年已累计增产明显，叠加美国、巴西、圭亚那等非OPEC+国家 产量高位运行，预计2026年非OPEC+供应增量约120万桶/日。委内瑞拉局势短期扰动出口，但中长期被市场解读 为潜在供应扩张预期，而非实质性中断风险。整体来看，供应增速压力仍存，供应变量短看伊朗（地缘发酵）， 长看OPEC+政策。 3、关注因素：1.地缘 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the cyclical sector, including commodities like precious metals, chemicals, oil shipping, and aviation [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Impact - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Kevin Walsh's hawkish position as the new Fed Chair has temporarily alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence, but his proposed policies of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts may not effectively address issues like deficit monetization and government debt financing costs [1][27]. - **Liquidity Environment**: Both domestic and international liquidity conditions are currently loose, supporting price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals. Geopolitical instability and de-dollarization trends provide long-term support for these assets [1][4]. Commodity Performance - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance since early 2026, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, particularly a 60% increase in precious metals in January [2][23]. - **Chemical Sector**: Despite recent price increases, the chemical sector is in a seasonal demand lull, and valuations are no longer attractive. The long-term outlook indicates a decrease in global chemical capacity growth due to reduced capital expenditure in China [5][6]. Oil Shipping Market - **High Demand and Pricing**: The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand due to OPEC+ production increases, with the VLOC freight index showing significant price increases. The market is characterized by limited supply and high demand, indicating a strong bullish outlook [1][13][14]. Aviation Sector - **Valuation and Recovery**: The aviation sector is currently facing short-term losses, but valuations have reached reasonable levels. Ticket prices are expected to recover and potentially exceed 2019 levels, with profit peaks possibly reaching 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [1][15][16]. Highway Sector - **Investment Attractiveness**: The highway sector has become more attractive relative to the broader market, with specific stocks like Sichuan Chengyu and Shenzhen International offering high dividend yields [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The significant rise in non-ferrous metals prices in January 2026 was driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, including U.S. interventions in various regions and military demand [23][25]. - **Future Trends in Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry is expected to face challenges due to stricter carbon emission regulations and reduced capital expenditure, leading to a decline in capacity growth [7][8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term price corrections, the long-term outlook for various commodities remains positive, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints and demand growth align [11][30][31]. Conclusion The cyclical sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and sector-specific dynamics. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in oil shipping, aviation, and select highway stocks, while caution is advised in the chemical sector due to valuation concerns and regulatory pressures.

Economic Growth Outlook - The Eurozone GDP is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2025, while the EU GDP is expected to grow by 1.6%, slightly above market expectations [1] - The economic recovery in the Eurozone is described as weak, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.3% for both the Eurozone and the EU in Q4 of the previous year [1][2] - Major economies like Germany, France, and Italy showed minimal growth, with France experiencing its lowest growth rate in three quarters due to weak domestic demand and declining investment [1] Manufacturing and Services Sector - The Eurozone's manufacturing activity continues to show signs of weakness, and service sector growth is also slow [2] - The January Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Eurozone is at 51.5, indicating expansion but at a slower pace than expected [1] External and Internal Challenges - The European Central Bank has highlighted global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts as significant factors affecting the economic outlook [3] - Structural issues within the EU, such as low productivity and high energy costs, are exacerbated by external challenges like rising trade barriers and slowing global demand [3] Employment and Industry Response - The job market is cooling, and many European manufacturing firms are resorting to production halts, layoffs, or inventory reductions in response to ongoing challenges [4][3] - Industry organizations have noted that pressures from energy costs and bureaucratic inefficiencies are leading to capacity closures and job cuts [3] Future Economic Projections - The EU Commission forecasts a slowdown in growth, with the Eurozone and EU expected to grow by 1.2% and 1.4% respectively in 2026 [5] - Structural resistance is anticipated to keep the Eurozone economy weak, with the need for fiscal stimulus to boost growth being a core issue [5][6] Currency and Trade Implications - The Euro's strength against the dollar, recently surpassing the 1.20 mark, poses challenges for Eurozone companies, particularly those reliant on exports to the U.S. [6] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade tensions and internal structural issues will likely keep the EU economy in a low-growth phase through 2026 [6]

新华财经法兰克福1月31日电 欧盟统计局1月30日公布的初步数据显示，2025年欧元区国内生产总值 （GDP）增长1.5%，欧盟GDP增长1.6%，略高于市场预期。市场分析人士认为，在全球地缘冲突不断 与贸易摩擦持续背景下，欧盟如何应对外部不确定性冲击和内部结构性挑战，挖掘经济长期增长潜力， 努力在成员国中消除分歧、形成有效合力，仍面临严峻考验。 "经济复苏相当疲弱" 数据显示，经季节调整后，去年第四季度欧元区和欧盟经济环比均增长0.3%，同比分别增长1.3%和 1.4%；欧盟主要经济体德国、法国、意大利分别环比增长0.3%、0.2%和0.3%。 西班牙和葡萄牙两国经济去年四季度均环比增长0.8%，成为拉动欧元区经济增长的主要引擎，而被誉 为欧洲经济"双引擎"的德国和法国则勉强实现正增长。其中，法国受到内需疲软、政府支出放缓和固定 资产投资增速下降等因素影响，增速为三个季度以来最低。 "2026年欧洲经济的核心问题在于，财政刺激何时开始提振经济增长。"荷兰国际集团首席经济学家贝尔 特·科莱恩寄希望于欧盟层面的激励措施和德国等重要经济体的定向松绑，将经济重心从内需消费驱动 转向"催生新动能"。 欧洲央行近期多次 ...