来源：能源研发中心 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 在中国最重要的传统佳节，原油继续强势上攻，最大涨幅一度超6%，与金银等贵金属这些金融属性最 强的品种领涨大宗商品市场。根据统计石油市场正经历自2022年以来最强劲的年初开局，而驱动油价走 强的因素最核心的仍是来自地缘风险的不断发酵。 在春节假期期间，全球市场仍是风云变幻，二件重磅事件牵动着金融市场的每一个角落。一个是让特朗 普恼羞成怒破口大骂的美最高院裁定关说违法事件，2026年2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3的投票结果 裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的对等关税、芬太尼关税等大规模加征关税措施违 法，认为其超越总统法定权限。裁决推翻了特朗普政府援引该法征收的所有关税，可能导致已征收的超 过1750亿美元关税需退还，实际关税税率从12.8%降至8.3%。对此，在裁决当日，特朗普签署行政令， 依据《1974年贸易法》第122条重新征收10%全球关税，期限150天，并计划启动更多贸易调查。关税变 化的影响市场仍需时间来评估，但整体利好非美资产。 第二件就是直接牵动油价的美国与伊朗之间就谈判和军事冲突之间的博弈，围绕 ...

[ 春节假期前沪金期货收于1100元/克，由于春节国内休市期间，外盘金价大涨，内外盘金价形成了约 45~50元/克的价差，为节后开盘提供补涨空间。 ] 2月23日港股黄金板块已率先反应大涨，潼关黄金（00340.HK）盘中涨超11%，中国黄金国际 （02099.HK）涨近7%，紫金黄金国际（02259.HK）涨逾7%。 A股市场于2月24日开盘，内外盘价差修复与地缘风险的持续发酵，或成为主导国内金价以及相关黄金 资产走势的核心变量。 地缘风险重燃，贵金属先抑后扬 [ 对于节后国内市场而言，机构普遍预测将呈现"跳空高开"的格局。 ] 假期期间，贵金属走势先抑后扬。 马年春节假期期间，全球贵金属市场上演"过山车"行情。 假期伊始，美伊地缘冲突发酵引发黄金、白银价格深度调整，而后半周避险情绪卷土重来，国际金价强 势反弹。2月23日，黄金、白银开盘直线拉升。现货黄金向上突破5170美元，日内涨超1%。现货白银涨 超3%，升破87美元。 全球最大黄金上市交易基金（ETF）SPDR Gold Trust截至2月20日（上周五）的黄金持仓量为1078.75 吨，当周累计增加1.72吨。 "从技术面观察，金银价格在关键支撑位 ...

美国和伊朗谈判代表预计将于本周四在日内瓦会晤。然而，与谈判进程并行的是不断升级的军事威胁。 与此同时，伊朗和埃及达成协议，同意恢复全面外交关系。这一看似缓和的动作，实则反映中东国家正 在"战与和"之间加速重新站位。地缘风险的"常态化溢价"已成为黄金定价的刚性成本。 从技术上来看，上周黄金主体结构是呈现区间震荡的，虽拉扯频率较高，但始终在预期的区域内运行。 然特朗普重启关税政策，使得目前市场情绪再升温，黄金因此今日开盘后再走高，目前小时图级别区间 已经被突破，但短期趋势线压制作用还在，所以今日亚盘时段行情可能会很纠结，看似强势，却难判断 是否还有更多的上涨空间，而在避险情绪催化下，短线行情又很难出现空间上的回修，这也给短线操作 上带来难度和风险。 总之，特朗普的关税大棒、美伊的战云密布、滞胀的幽灵徘徊——这些都不是短线题材，而是正在重塑 全球资产定价逻辑的结构性力量。在这样的市场中，顺势而为不是选项，而是唯一的选择。今日的每一 次回调，都是上车的机会。但上车的姿势，决定了你能走多远。 2月23日，上周五，投资者消化了美国最高法院驳回特朗普关税的裁决，黄金有所回落。但特朗普关税 政策不确定性可能引发新一轮混乱，叠 ...

今天的走势 黄金上周二度下探，连续直线跳水，重挫200美金后。上演V型逆袭，疯狂拉升，修复跌幅后，今天又 是高开急涨70美金，再战5200的关口。 上周碰到4840，再度弹起。 一路狂奔，修复了5100的位置。 今天继续涨，而且急冲到了5170上方。 急速上扬，短期内存在调整的过程。 此位置支撑反弹，上方继续看挑战5200的关口。 再次突破，继续看向5300的位置。 同时，下方再次回调，跌破了5120，继续看向5060的支撑。 黄金本月第三次深度调整，再破高。连续三次的深V逆袭，底部不断抬升。多头力量非常的猛，整体依 然比较强势，再续涨上方可看向5400的区域。同时，下方再次调整，可看向5000的区域。 操作方面，黄金三度逆袭，多头卷土重来，继续看涨，关注5060和5120做多的机会。此外，黄金上方临 近关键阻力，关注5200和5300做空的机会。 上周主要因素： 一方面，美伊和谈，双方谈谈紧紧，又给全球紧张情绪放缓。以及重点，美股遭遇重挫，科技股放血， 引发连锁反应，进而波及到贵金属集体跳水，黄金接连直线大跌。 另外一方面，美伊反复无常，特朗普再释放紧张24小时，地缘风险骤升。以及重点，美最高法院判定关 税 ...

特朗普在社交媒体发文，全球输美商品税率从10%提高到15%。 新年还没开工，特朗普直接"开炸"，给市场送来新年祝福：加税关税。 这次关税政策遭遇企业集体诉讼，属于"越权"行为，金融市场关心的不是对错，是影响和共识。 旧秩序，老规矩，特朗普自立边界和规则，"越权"是常态，不越反而不是特朗普性格，反对声越大他越兴奋。 早上受消息面影响黄金白银双双跳空上涨，黄金重回5180美元，击穿了前期5100-5120美元强压力，为后期上涨提供了方向，贸易冲突，地缘风险，货币 政策没有消失，也不会消失。 另外，白银这次急跌40%降温，这次是预演熊市，后期在资产配置上平衡极端风险下的承压，防止下次出现类似情况获利回吐。 目前技术面黄金突破5100美元的强压力区域，多头会进一步延伸，今天整体还是以低多为主，国内黄金暂时停盘，明天才能开盘交易，突破后的下一个压 力区域在5250-5300美元，其次才是5400美元附近。 所以黄金低点抬高，高点突破，回撤后支撑在5120-30美元附近，或5150美元找位置做多，向上关注5200-5250美元，亚盘上涨欧盘延续，美盘前还有一次 多的机会。 一：买预期卖事实，事实不重要，比如：美联储突然决 ...

截至收盘，现货黄金价格涨2.08%，报4979.56美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货价格涨1.95%；现货白银价 格涨5.04%，报77.2335美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货价格涨4.92%；COMEX铜期货价格涨2.40%，报 5.8410美元/磅；现货铂价格涨3.36%；现货钯价格涨1.81%。 美股三大指数收涨，道指涨0.26%，纳指涨0.78%，标普500指数涨0.56%。个股方面，美光涨超5%，亚 马逊、英伟达、甲骨文、奈飞涨超1%。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨2.86美元/桶，收于65.19美元/桶，涨 幅为4.59%；4月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.93美元/桶，收于70.35美元/桶，涨幅为4.35%。 美媒：美对伊朗开展军事行动"迫在眉睫" 今天是农历正月初三，是迎接福神的日子。祝福各位好运接二连三，福运亨通！ 先来看海外市场表现。 据新华社援引美国阿克西奥斯新闻网站18日报道，目前没有任何迹象表明美国与伊朗的外交谈判会取得 突破，与此同时，越来越多的证据表明美对伊军事行动"迫在眉睫"。 报道援引消息人士的话说，如果美国对伊朗发动军事行动，很可能是一场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced a dramatic drop from $5536 to $4402 per ounce, marking a nearly 20% decline in one week, the worst in 40 years, followed by a rebound to around $4858.060 per ounce, raising questions about whether this is a technical recovery or a trend reversal [1]. Technical Analysis - Oversold signals triggered short covering, with the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) soaring to 46.02, indicating extreme market panic and triggering algorithmic trading and stop-loss liquidations [1]. - The key support level is identified at $4400 per ounce, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2025 October rally, leading to a technical buying intervention [1]. - The psychological resistance at $5000 is only 1.2% away, but a breakthrough of the $4950-$5000 trading range, which accounts for 62% of the total trading volume in December 2025, is necessary to open up upward potential [2]. - The COMEX gold open interest has decreased by 23% from its peak, indicating that bullish sentiment has not fully recovered [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical risks and policy expectations are acting as a double-edged sword, with potential for increased safe-haven demand due to U.S.-Iran tensions. A breakdown in negotiations could lead to a surge in gold buying [4]. - The nomination of Walsh, who advocates for "balance sheet reduction before rate cuts," could suppress gold prices if implemented, although the market still anticipates two rate cuts this year with a probability of 68% [5]. - In terms of supply and demand, China's gold consumption is projected to decline by 3.6% in 2025, while investment demand (ETFs and gold bars) is expected to grow by 18%, highlighting structural contradictions [6]. Market Outlook - Short-term (1-2 weeks): The market is expected to stabilize with a focus on policy catalysts, with potential daily volatility of 3-5% due to increased margin requirements [7][8]. - Mid-term (1-3 months): Two scenarios are possible: an optimistic scenario where geopolitical tensions escalate and the Fed initiates rate cuts, potentially pushing gold above $5500, or a pessimistic scenario where easing tensions and inflation pressures delay rate cuts, possibly pulling gold back to $4200 [9]. - Long-term (3-5 years): The strategic insurance value of gold is expected to become more pronounced as global central bank gold reserves increase from 17% to 26%, with a potential systemic upward shift in gold valuations if it surpasses 30% [10][11]. Investment Strategy - Conservative strategies may include gold ETFs with options for downside protection, while aggressive strategies could involve gold stock ETFs and futures trading to leverage returns [12][13]. - Position management suggests a pyramid approach to adding positions below $4800 and reducing exposure by 50% after surpassing $5000 [14]. - Stop-loss discipline is recommended, with a 3% dynamic stop-loss for short-term trades and a tolerance for 15% volatility for medium to long-term holdings [15].

Core Viewpoint - The market is divided into two camps regarding gold prices: the bearish camp, which holds a pessimistic view and advises against entering the market, and the bullish camp, which is optimistic about long-term trends and sees current adjustments as buying opportunities [1]. Group 1: Bearish Perspective - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, indicating a severe valuation bubble, and a correction is inevitable [2]. - If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates and delays rate cuts, the strength of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will increase, significantly reducing gold's attractiveness [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts are likely to ease, leading to a gradual decline in risk aversion, which will remove core support factors for gold prices [2]. - Institutions have already taken profits, while retail investors are chasing prices at high levels, making entry at this point akin to catching a falling knife [2]. Group 2: Bullish Perspective - The trend of de-dollarization globally is irreversible, with central banks continuing to purchase large amounts of gold, providing solid long-term demand support [2]. - The weakening of the dollar's credibility and the restructuring of the monetary system will highlight gold's monetary attributes [2]. - Persistent global inflation and geopolitical risks ensure that the rigid demand for gold as a safe-haven asset will not disappear [2]. - The recent price drop is viewed as a short-term fluctuation rather than a trend reversal, with the long-term price center expected to continue rising [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The upcoming U.S. CPI data will be crucial in determining short-term trends; if inflation remains high, gold prices may continue to face pressure, seeking the next support level around $4,800 [4]. - For ordinary investors, it is advisable to wait for market sentiment to stabilize and for gold prices to regain the $5,000 level before considering entry [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Cross - product: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy sector's recent fluctuations are significantly affected by the Iran situation, and the situation is still unclear. During the Spring Festival holiday, changes in the situation and news may lead to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, which will be transmitted to the post - holiday market, so risks should be noted before the holiday [1] - From the perspective of its own fundamentals, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has been running strongly recently, with good downstream marine fuel demand, and the raw material substitution of Venezuelan oil by domestic refineries has also promoted the import demand for fuel oil. However, there is no shortage expectation in the market. Russia's shipments increased significantly in January, which will lead to an increase in arrivals in Asia in February. Overall, under the premise of relatively controllable geopolitical situations, the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil do not have the momentum to strengthen continuously. In a high - freight environment, over - valuation will suppress downstream refinery demand. If the Iran situation deteriorates further, high - sulfur fuel oil, as the main product of Iran's exports, has a relatively prominent risk exposure [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current fundamental contradictions are not obvious. Due to the resumption of production at the Azur refinery, Kuwait's shipments were relatively high in January, but the overall pressure is relatively limited, and it mainly follows the fluctuations of the crude oil end in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,888 yuan/ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 3,349 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, avoid geopolitical risks as much as possible, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, avoid geopolitical risks as much as possible, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2] Figures and Data - There are multiple figures showing the prices, spreads, closing prices of futures contracts, and trading volumes and open interests of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as the fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures in China, with corresponding units such as US dollars/ton and yuan/ton, and hand [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The A-share market fluctuated and rose on February 12, 2026, with the Wind All A index up 0.46% and a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan. The TMT and power equipment sectors led the gains, while the consumer sector continued to decline. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.91%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.17%, the SSE 50 index fell 0.28%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.12% [1]. - Geopolitical risks during the Spring Festival are one of the important factors affecting the A-share market. The situation between the US and Iran and the victory of right-wing political parties in Japan's elections are worthy of attention. The volatility of precious metals and other non-ferrous metals may increase, and the index volatility may rise if geopolitical conflicts break out during the festival. Since November last year, A-share technology themes have shown an increasing correlation with the US stock market. The new nominee for the Fed chairman has a more "hawkish" monetary policy stance, and the US economic data during the Spring Festival holiday may disturb the equity market [1]. - On February 12, 2026, the 30-year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.03%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.02%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract remained stable. The central bank conducted 400 billion yuan of 14-day and 166.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 448 billion yuan. In the short term, the bond market has insufficient momentum to continue to strengthen, and the pattern of interest rate range fluctuations continues [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with different index movements. Geopolitical risks and US economic data are potential influencing factors, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's open market operations and the current economic policy environment affect the bond market, which is expected to remain in a range - bound state [3]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract fell 0.27%, the IF contract rose 0.04%, the IC contract rose 1.35%, and the IM contract rose 1.18% on February 12, 2026 compared with the previous day [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 index fell 0.28%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.17%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.91% on February 12, 2026 compared with the previous day [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract rose 0.04%, the TF contract rose 0.01%, the T contract rose 0.04%, and the TL contract fell 0.04% on February 12, 2026 compared with the previous day [4]. 3. Market News - The EU announced on February 12, 2026, that it would request the WTO to establish a panel for a dispute case related to standard - essential patent licensing litigation against China. China regrets the EU's decision and will handle the case in accordance with WTO procedures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [5][6]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures [8][9][10][11][12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [15][18][19][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and other currency pairs [23][24][25][27][28].