值得一提的是，近期多家上市黄金矿企发布业绩预喜。灵宝黄金预计2025年度取得净利润人民币介于约 15.03亿元至约15.73亿元，同比增加约115%至125%；紫金矿业预计全年实现归母净利润510亿至520亿 元，同比增幅约为59%至62%；赤峰黄金则预计全年净利润同比增加约70%到81%。 消息面上，近期地缘风险与降息预期支撑金价，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四再度向美联储施压， 并称该行需要尽其所能促进经济投资，利率应该大幅降低。当前市场关注将于今晚公布的2025年12月非 农就业报告。摩根士丹利在报告中预测，黄金价格将在2026年第四季度升至每盎司4800美元，突破去年 创下的历史纪录。该投行认为，利率下行、美联储领导层更迭，以及各国央行和基金持续买入，将共同 推动金价进一步上涨。 黄金股多数走高，截至发稿，山东黄金（600547）(01787)涨5.8%，报39.78港元；招金矿业(01818)涨 4.8%，报35.82港元；紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨3.12%，报38.86港元；赤峰黄金（600988）(06693) 涨3.11%，报29.85港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，黄金股多数走高，截至发稿，山东黄金(01787)涨5.8%，报39.78港元；招金矿业 (01818)涨4.8%，报35.82港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨3.12%，报38.86港元；赤峰黄金(06693)涨3.11%，报 29.85港元。 值得一提的是，近期多家上市黄金矿企发布业绩预喜。灵宝黄金预计2025年度取得净利润人民币介于约 15.03亿元至约15.73亿元，同比增加约115%至125%；紫金矿业预计全年实现归母净利润510亿至520亿 元，同比增幅约为59%至62%；赤峰黄金则预计全年净利润同比增加约70%到81%。 消息面上，近期地缘风险与降息预期支撑金价，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四再度向美联储施压， 并称该行需要尽其所能促进经济投资，利率应该大幅降低。当前市场关注将于今晚公布的2025年12月非 农就业报告。摩根士丹利在报告中预测，黄金价格将在2026年第四季度升至每盎司4800美元，突破去年 创下的历史纪录。该投行认为，利率下行、美联储领导层更迭，以及各国央行和基金持续买入，将共同 推动金价进一步上涨。 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月09日 (原油) 经历多日承压后夜盘油价迎来显著反弹，布伦特最高接近63美元/桶。市场对地缘风险的反应虽推动 短期回升,但其持续性仍待观察。地缘局势的反复可能加剧油价波动、影响短期节奏,但并未扭转 库存累积带来的下行压力。当前供需格局显示，第一季度全球石油库存压力依然突出，供应过剩仍 是压制油价中枢下行的主要因素。需要警惕的是,若伊朗等地缘风险急剧升级,不排除引发油价短 期脉冲式上涨行情。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属先抑后扬，跌势缓和。美国周度初请失业金人数20.8万人，维持在低位水平。开年全球 她缘乱局延续，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，彭博大宗商品指数年度调仓影响不具备持续性，贵金属高 位震荡后仍有望测试前高阻力，考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机会。聚焦今晚 美国非农就业数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，高盛上调上半年铜价目标12750美元。市场关注美国高法对特朗普对等关税的裁 决，不过涉铜多走行业关税。沪铜主力换月至2603合约，市场关注2601合约期货仓单变动。昨日上 海铜贴水125元，SMM社库增至27.38万吨。前期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The propylene futures market has good demand and smooth production enterprise shipments, but the futures price declined slightly. The plastic and polypropylene futures markets are stable, with price support from factors such as market sentiment and supply - demand [2]. - The pure benzene futures market has a weakening transaction in Shandong, and the styrene futures market is in a stalemate due to the cost pressure of pure benzene and good downstream demand [3]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as weakening terminal demand, price fluctuations of raw materials, and inventory changes, with different trends for each product [5]. - The methanol market is affected by rumors of MTO device maintenance, and the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range [6]. - The PVC market has weak demand and increasing inventory, while the caustic soda market has large supply pressure and limited rebound height [7]. - The soda ash market is under pressure of oversupply, and the glass market may have opportunities to go long after a callback [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract opened high and declined slightly. Demand is good, and the market trading atmosphere is maintained [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures: The main contracts fluctuated. The polyethylene market is strong, and the price center of gravity moves up. The polypropylene price is supported by factors such as tight supply and downstream demand [2]. 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures: The main contract declined slightly, and the Shandong market transaction weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and consider positive spreads in the medium - term [3]. - Styrene futures: The main contract is in a stalemate. The downstream demand is good, but the cost of pure benzene suppresses the price [3]. 3.3 Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices declined, and the processing difference of PTA was moderately repaired. The demand is affected by the weakening terminal [5]. - Ethylene glycol: New domestic devices are about to be put into production, and overseas devices are shut down. It is under long - term pressure and may improve in the second quarter [5]. - Short fiber: The inventory is low, but the demand is weak. The price fluctuates with raw materials [5]. - Bottle chip: The demand is weakening, and the price is driven by cost. There is new investment in the short - term and maintenance in the future [5]. 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The market declined due to rumors of MTO device maintenance. Future imports are expected to decrease, but high inventory and downstream feedback may suppress the market [6]. - Urea: The price fluctuated. The production enterprise inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range with the approaching of spring agricultural demand [6]. 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The price was weak. The demand is low, the inventory increased, and the cost support is acceptable. The price center of gravity is expected to rise in 2026 [7]. - Caustic soda: The price declined. The supply pressure is large, and the rebound height is limited [7]. 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The price declined. It is under pressure of oversupply, and a short - selling strategy can be considered [8]. - Glass: The price fluctuated strongly. The inventory decreased, and there may be opportunities to go long after a callback [8].

尽管美元指数近期尝试企稳，但市场对美联储年内仍有两次降息空间的预期并未发生实质变化。偏鸽派 的利率路径定价，使美元难以形成持续上行趋势，也在一定程度上缓冲了黄金的下行压力。从交易层面 看，投资者更倾向于等待非农数据给出明确指引，在此之前，激进的方向性操作明显降温。 UNforex 1 月 8 日讯（分析师 Simon）在多项关键宏观事件集中落地之前，全球市场整体风险偏好保持 克制。周四欧洲交易时段，黄金连续第二日承压回落，在短线获利了结与观望情绪共同作用下，价格下 探至近三日低位区域。与此同时，美国最高法院即将就特朗普关税案作出裁决，也为本周后半段的资产 定价引入新的政策不确定性。 欧洲时段，黄金（XAU/USD）一度回落至 4415 美元附近，延续此前高位整理格局。市场普遍认为，本 轮回调更多属于非农就业数据公布前的仓位调整，而非基本面出现明显转向。在缺乏新的方向性驱动 下，部分短线资金选择锁定前期收益，使金价短线承压。不过，从整体环境看，地缘风险与宽松政策预 期仍构成支撑，限制了价格下行空间。 除经济数据外，美国最高法院即将就特朗普关税案作出裁决。摩根士丹利预计，最终结果更可能介于完 全放开与全面限制之间 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - US raid on Venezuela has raised geopolitical risks; OPEC+ stated that eight member countries will suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026 [2] - PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market is leading the price discovery mechanism, and although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported. The market is expected to remain tight in 2026, driven by new PTA capacity in India and organic demand growth [2] - Domestic PTA maintains high operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. High gasoline spreads support aromatics. New polyester device launches keep the polyester load at a high level, with high PTA consumption and increased market hoarding willingness [2][3] - Polyester demand is affected by the domestic season, but the reduction in production by polyester factories is not enough to form a negative feedback [3] Group 3: Data Summary PTA and MEG - PTA spot price increased from 5030 to 5080, with a change of 50; MEG domestic price increased from 3666 to 3719, with a change of 53 [2] - PTA closing price remained unchanged at 5150; MEG closing price increased from 3838 to 3879, with a change of 41 [2] Short Fiber - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6555 to 6545, with a change of -10; short fiber basis increased from 33 to 39, with a change of 6 [2] - Short fiber production and sales decreased from 77.00% to 74.00%, with a change of -3.00%; direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, with a change of 2.07% [2][3] Bottle Chip - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with an average price drop of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 538 to 464, with a change of -75 [2] Others - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10500; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3945 to 3955, with a change of 10 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16400 to 16600, with a change of 200; polyester-cotton yarn profit increased from 1187 to 1334, with a change of 146 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15520 to 15680, with a change of 160 [2]

| 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB BRENT 1- dated bre 2月差 nt | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/30 | 57.95 | 61.33 | 62.02 | - 0.30 | -3.38 | 0.95 | 172.10 | 10.95 | 215.05 | 28.99 | | 2025/12/31 | 57.42 | 60.85 | 62.04 | - 0.36 | -3.43 | 0.55 | 171.50 | 11.18 | 212.15 | 28.25 | | 2026/01/05 | 58.32 | 61.76 | 60.32 | - 0.39 | -3.44 | 1.05 | 172.00 | 10.48 | 214.28 | 28.24 | | 2026/01/0 ...

摘要周三(1月7日)欧洲时段，现货黄金震荡下行，日内跌约0.85%，现交投于4455美元附近。市场消化 美国对委内瑞拉军事行动后，风险偏好升温引发大宗商品获利回吐。但特朗普吞并格陵兰岛威胁及对哥 伦比亚、墨西哥的对抗言论，令地缘风险持续发酵，限制金价跌幅。美联储降息预期升温致美元未能延 续涨势，支撑无息资产黄金。交易商观望，等待周五非农等关键数据指引方向。 周三(1月7日)欧洲时段，现货黄金震荡下行，日内跌约0.85%，现交投于4455美元附近。市场消化美国 对委内瑞拉军事行动后，风险偏好升温引发大宗商品获利回吐。但特朗普吞并格陵兰岛威胁及对哥伦比 亚、墨西哥的对抗言论，令地缘风险持续发酵，限制金价跌幅。美联储降息预期升温致美元未能延续涨 势，支撑无息资产黄金。交易商观望，等待周五非农等关键数据指引方向。 【要闻速递】 美方对委内瑞拉采取军事行动并逮捕总统马杜罗，引发全球关注。周一马杜罗在纽约联邦法院否认指 控，称自己合法当选;美方称将暂时"管理"委局势，新任总统罗德里格斯则释放缓和信号，愿在框架下 合作。对峙与对话交织，令市场风险判断陷入模糊。在此不确定性下，资金未撤离黄金市场，反而将其 视为避险触发点。黄 ...

市场反应显示，地缘风险引发的避险资金流入具有持续性。1月7日美元指数上涨0.32%至98.579，但黄 金依然抗跌，出现"美元与黄金同涨"格局，表明地缘风险主导市场。 在政策层面，美联储2026年降息预期持续发酵，机构普遍预测全年或降息2-3次。里奇蒙联储主席称货 币政策需精细调整，平衡失业与通胀风险，强化降息预期。美债收益率整体处于近三个月相对低位，长 端稳定为黄金提供利率支撑。本周将公布的美国12月非农、ADP就业及ISM非制造业PMI等数据，将为 利率路径提供线索，若数据不及预期，降息预期将进一步升温。 摘要北京时间周三(1月7日)欧洲时段，美元指数先涨后跌，交投于98.628附近，金价目前交投于4462.56 美元/盎司，跌幅0.69%，最高触及4499.89美元/盎司，最低触及4441.09美元/盎司。不过，从整体表现来 看，回调幅度相对有限，显示多头结构尚未出现明显破坏。尽管纳斯达克等主要指数继续刷新历史高 点，市场情绪表面趋于乐观，但地缘不确定性并未明显缓解。 北京时间周三(1月7日)欧洲时段，美元指数先涨后跌，交投于98.628附近，金价目前交投于4462.56美元/ 盎司，跌幅0.69%，最 ...

摘要2026年1月7日欧洲时段，黄金攀升至4500美元/盎司附近，因地缘紧张及美联储降息预期，日内涨 超1%；白银涨超5%创历史新高，RSI超买但动能强劲。若银价突破81.44美元，将打开82.00-85.87美元 上行通道，80.00美元为关键支撑。尽管美债收益率上升、美元走强，地缘因素仍推动贵金属走高，叠 加就业不佳强化美联储宽松预期，白银突破年内高位至81.44美元。 现货白银：白银长线看涨前景广阔，有望迈向100美元、120美元甚至更高价位，对应国内每克23-24 元、28-30元乃至更高水平。2025年末的大跌仅是牛市中的调整，尽管调整幅度可能较大，极限或达 30%，但70美元大关仍构成强劲支撑。本周初，白银大幅拉升，已基本收复元旦前的暴跌失地。今日早 盘，白银最高触及82.75美元，距历史新高仅一步之遥，多头表现远超预期，彰显其强劲的上涨动能。 现货铂金和钯金：铂金与钯金在经历暴跌后目前已进入震荡阶段。中期可在铂金回落至1700美元及以下 时分批布局多单，并做好中长线持有准备；钯金则可在1300美元及以下逐步建仓多单，同样以中长线为 目标。若价格回落至元旦前后低点附近，可适量介入部分仓位，随后等待 ...