Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile and slightly weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods. The main reason is that the expected increase in supply outweighs geopolitical risk factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term (within one week)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly weak [1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly closed down 0.06% to 483.3 yuan/barrel, and the decline has slowed down [5]. - It is expected that on Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract will maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend [5]. 3.3 Core Logic - The market is worried that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will expand oil production capacity again, and the increasing supply pressure outweighs geopolitical risk factors [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA absolute prices have fallen from their highs. With the cost - side oil price stabilizing and the positive news exhausted, the market focus returns to fundamentals, and the downstream demand becomes the main contradiction. The demand recovery is hard to boost raw material prices [2]. - The absolute price of MEG has also fallen from its high. The MEG port inventory has been continuously declining significantly, and the supply - side increase space is limited, so there is still support at the bottom [2]. - PF and PR mainly follow cost changes. The short - fiber and bottle - chip prices fluctuate with costs, and attention should be paid to the actual performance of terminal demand at the end of the peak season [3]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - PX: Valuation returns to fundamentals as the hype on the news side is over, and there are doubts about the sustainability of demand recovery [5][21]. - PTA: The market circulation is abundant, and there are doubts about the sustainability of demand recovery [5][34]. - MEG: Domestic production continues to rise, and there may be support at the valuation bottom under low inventory [5][43]. - PF and PR: Mainly follow cost changes, and attention should be paid to the actual performance of terminal demand at the end of the peak season [3]. 2. PX Market Analysis - **Macro - factors**: After the US Labor Day, the seasonal demand inflection point is approaching. The market generally expects OPEC+ to suspend production increases in October. Geopolitical risks are still the biggest potential positive factor in the crude - oil market. In the short - term, sanctions and inventory decline provide main support, and in the long - term, the global economic recovery rhythm should be focused on [22]. - **Cost - related**: Naphtha prices are stable, and PX - N benefits are compressed. There are differences in short - process profits, and the refined oil price difference shows an upward trend [25][28]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic PX device load is currently around 83.3%, a 1.3% month - on - month decline; the Asian device load is currently 75.6%, a 0.7% month - on - month decline [2][31][32]. 3. PTA Market Analysis - **Processing - fee aspect**: PTA processing fees are under pressure, and attention should be paid to device maintenance dynamics under low processing fees [35]. - **Supply - side**: The PTA mainland area's operating rate is around 70.4%, a 1.2% decrease. Polyester production shows no signs of increase, and the operating rates of weaving and dyeing industries have declined [38][40]. 4. MEG Market Analysis - **Price and profit**: The MEG price has fallen, and processing profits are under pressure [44]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic MEG operating rate is 75.13% (a 1.97% increase), and the synthetic - gas - to - MEG operating rate is 77.74% (a 3.51% decrease). From September 1st to September 7th, the planned arrival at the main port is about 9.8 tons [2][47]. - **Inventory**: The main - port inventory is 44.9 tons, a 5.1 - ton month - on - month decrease [48]. - **Demand - side**: The profits of polyester products have recovered at a low level, but the overall economic efficiency is still average. The sales - to - production ratio has not recovered significantly, and the transactions in the Light Textile City have increased periodically. The short - fiber inventory is relatively stable, while the inventories of other varieties are under pressure [51][54][57].

徽商期货分析师认为，短期油价支撑较强，主要受益于宏观环境稳定和原油去库进程，但中期风险上 升，包括需求淡季来临、OPEC+原定166万桶/日增产计划及地缘不确定性等。策略上，建议多单逢高止 盈，规避9月7日OPEC+月度会议结果的不确定性，同时密切关注飓风动态及下周库存数据变化以优化 交易布局。 中辉期货表示，欧佩克+再度向市场释放增产消息，原油系昨晚走低。当前原油消费旺季已结束，而 OPEC+仍处于扩产周期，如果地缘因素短期没有明显异动的情况下，预计原油大概率将承压震荡为 主，关注后续欧佩克+相关会议动态。 南华期货（603093）指出，OPEC+是否继续增产的不确定性较高，这将成为下周原油价格波动的重要 隐患：若决定继续增产，可能对原油盘面形成进一步压制；若暂停增产，盘面或迎来反弹修复，但反弹 力度预计有限。地缘风险方面，目前其对原油的利好影响时间短、空间有限，更多属于短期干扰因素， 仍需持续关注。其中，美委紧张局势是否会升级为直接军事冲突是核心关注点，一旦发生，原油盘面大 概率将遵循"1-2周，5-10美元"的波动规律，与此前伊以冲突的影响模式类似。此外，当前宏观面与基 本面暂未进入市场主要交易逻辑，但 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and attention should be paid to the new round of OPEC+ production policy this weekend. Oil prices are under downward pressure in the medium and long term and may fall to around $60 [7]. - LPG: Affected by the cost - end crude oil, LPG is weak. The current supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price mainly follows the oil price [10]. - L: Cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern is gradually turning into a double - strong one in September. It is recommended to try long positions on pullbacks [16]. - PP: The demand peak season is lackluster, and the supply will remain under pressure. The upward drive is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [21]. - PVC: The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but the industrial chain has a large inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and wait and see [26]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks [30]. - PTA: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the market risk preference is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks [33]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices [37]. - Methanol: The fundamentals remain weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short the 01 contract at high prices [40]. - Urea: The domestic fundamentals are relatively loose, but there are upper and lower limits. It is recommended to focus on the low - long opportunities of the 01 contract [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 2.47%, Brent dropped 2.23%, and SC rose 0.41% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are rising, the peak season is ending, OPEC+ production increases are putting pressure on oil prices, and in the medium and long term, oil prices may fall to around $60. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There is uncertainty about OPEC+ production increase. As of August 20, India's crude oil imports decreased. As of August 22, US commercial crude inventories decreased, and strategic crude reserves increased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the support at around $60 for new shale oil wells. SC focuses on the range of [480 - 490] [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 3, the PG main contract closed at 4429 yuan/ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG is not significant, and the price mainly depends on the cost - end oil price. The cost - end still has room to decline. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4300 - 4400] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7252 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan day - on - day; the North China Ning coal price was 7160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 196 lots [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern will gradually turn into a double - strong one in September. The production is expected to increase by 40,000 tons, and the demand support is strengthening [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the market sentiment and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Try long positions on pullbacks. L focuses on the range of [7200 - 7300] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan day - on - day; the East China wire drawing market price was 6895 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 1205 lots [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand peak season is lackluster, the inventory of traders has increased significantly, and the supply will remain under pressure. The upward drive is insufficient, but the absolute price is low, so there is also support at the bottom [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upward drive of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see. PP focuses on the range of [6900 - 7000] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan day - on - day; the Changzhou spot price was 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 612 lots [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but the industrial chain has a large inventory accumulation pressure. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - selling due to low - valuation support and wait and see. V focuses on the range of [4750 - 4950] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side domestic and foreign devices have changed little, the demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance volume is high. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PXN is not low. The cost support is weakening due to the rumored OPEC+ oil production increase [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks. PX511 focuses on the range of [6680 - 6810] [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA East China price was 4740 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the devices have been overhauled as planned, and the overhaul volume is relatively high. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future. The demand side shows signs of recovery. The 8 - 9 month supply - demand is in a tight balance, which is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The cost support is weakening, but the market risk preference is increasing [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks. TA01 focuses on the range of [4650 - 4730] [36]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, and overseas devices have changed little. The downstream demand is expected to be good, but the market expects the arrival volume to increase in the middle and late August, and the supply - side pressure will rise [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. EG01 focuses on the range of [4300 - 4350] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [40]. - **Basic Logic**: This week, the overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and the supply - side pressure has increased. The demand side is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short the 01 contract at high prices. MA01 focuses on the range of [2360 - 2390] [43]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the urea main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [45]. - **Basic Logic**: This week, the daily urea production is expected to continue to decline, but new devices will be put into operation as planned, and the daily production is expected to gradually recover in mid - and early September. The domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. The inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term long - short game intensifies, with range fluctuations. Focus on the low - long opportunities of the 01 contract [3].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a high opening but subsequently declined, with notable drops including Tongguan Gold down 8%, China Gold International down over 5%, and Lingbao Gold down 4.4% [1][2] - Recent spot gold prices reached new highs, but there was a slight decline of 0.27% in early Asian trading, falling below $3,550 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that after reaching new highs, the risk of a short-term technical correction in gold stocks has significantly increased, urging investors to remain vigilant [2][3] Group 2 - Many gold companies' stock prices have risen far beyond their net profit growth rates, leading to historically high valuation metrics such as P/E ratios, suggesting signs of a bubble [3] - High valuations necessitate either a stock price correction or earnings growth to be absorbed, increasing short-term risks [3] - The long-term drivers for gold prices, including central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks, remain strong, indicating a future dynamic between short-term volatility and long-term trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold stocks have shown a trend of high opening and low closing, with significant declines in various companies' stock prices, indicating a potential short-term technical correction after recent highs in the gold market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Recent performance of gold stocks includes notable declines: Tongguan Gold down 8%, China Gold International down over 5%, Lingbao Gold down 4.4%, and others experiencing declines of over 3% [1] - The latest prices for key gold stocks are as follows: Tongguan Gold at 2.060, China Gold International at 118.800, and Lingbao Gold at 15.820 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The spot gold market has recently reached new highs, but there was a drop of 0.27% today, falling below 3550 USD/ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that the rapid increase in gold stock prices has outpaced the growth in net profits, leading to historically high valuation metrics such as P/E ratios, indicating potential bubble-like conditions [1] - The long-term drivers for gold prices, including central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks, remain strong, suggesting a battle between short-term volatility and long-term trends [1]

Market Performance - On September 3, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02% [1] - Google shares rose over 9%, marking the best single-day performance since April 9, reaching a record high [1] - Apple shares increased by 3.8%, the largest gain in nearly a month [1] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July JOLTS job openings were 7.181 million, below expectations, indicating a gradual weakening in hiring demand [1] - Following the report, the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply, continuing its depreciation trend, which benefits dollar-denominated assets like gold [1] Precious Metals Market - Spot gold rose by 0.78% to $3,560.67 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.82% to $3,621.80 per ounce, reaching an intraday high of $3,640.10, a new historical peak [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index closed up 0.79% at 257.07 points, marking a record high for three consecutive trading days [1] - Spot silver increased by 0.78% to $41.20 per ounce, nearing the 2011 peak of $49.8044 per ounce [3] Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocated for starting interest rate cuts this month, suggesting multiple reductions in the coming months [4][5] - Market expectations indicate a greater than 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with potential cuts totaling 50 to 75 basis points by year-end [5] Oil Market Dynamics - On September 3, WTI crude oil fell over 2% to $64.19 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped nearly 2% to $67.81 per barrel [7] - Geopolitical tensions have driven recent oil price fluctuations, with ongoing conflicts affecting market stability [7] - Analysts predict that despite geopolitical factors pushing prices up, the overall supply surplus will continue to pressure oil prices, especially as the peak demand season ends [8] OPEC+ Production Outlook - OPEC+ is expected to maintain current production levels in its upcoming meeting, with a projected increase of 2.467 million barrels per day, although actual increases have been around 1 million barrels per day [8] - Analysts suggest that if OPEC+ keeps production unchanged, it could support oil prices, but the market is closely watching for any signals regarding future production plans [8] Market Sentiment and Risks - The macroeconomic environment appears stable, with U.S. stock indices recovering despite previous declines [9] - Short-term oil prices may find support due to stable macro conditions and inventory drawdowns, but medium-term risks are rising due to seasonal demand declines and OPEC+ production plans [10] - The U.S. shale oil production's breakeven points are critical, with $60 per barrel for new drilling and $40 for existing wells, indicating sensitivity to price changes [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [3] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East provide support at the bottom, but overall, there is great downward pressure [1][5]. - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - end oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for compression below [1]. - L: Cost support improves, and as the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. Consider going long on dips [1]. - PP: Cost support improves, but supply will still face pressure in the future. Although the peak - season demand is starting, the medium - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upward drive. However, the absolute price is low, so consider short - term long positions on dips [1]. - PVC: The absolute price is low, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. Cost support has weakened, and there is a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory. Consider short - term long positions due to low - valuation support [1]. - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro expectations are loose. Consider holding long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [1]. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and market risk appetite has increased. Consider long positions on dips [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices and look for short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: The fundamentals remain weak, but there are short - term disturbances. Consider short positions on the 01 contract at high prices [2]. - Urea: The domestic fundamentals are loose, but exports are good and there are speculative expectations. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [2]. - Asphalt: The cracking spread and BU - FU spread are at high levels, with high valuations. Maintain a bearish view [3]. - Glass: Supply is under pressure, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and consider short - term long positions on rebounds [3]. - Soda ash: Supply is expected to remain high, and demand is mostly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and consider short - term long positions on rebounds [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 2.47%, Brent rose 1.45%, and SC rose 1.28% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, demand support for oil prices weakens, and OPEC+ production increases put pressure on oil prices. Supply is increasing, and demand in India has decreased. Pay attention to the final outcome of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5][6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the break - even point of new shale - oil drilling at around $60. SC focuses on the range of [490 - 500] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 2, the PG main contract closed at 4333 yuan/ton, up 1.58% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: LPG supply - demand contradictions are not significant, and prices are mainly pegged to the cost - end oil price. As the oil - consumption peak season ends and OPEC is still increasing production, the cost end has room to decline. Supply has increased slightly, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4400 - 4500] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, and the spot price in North China has stopped falling and stabilized. As the peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some device restarts are planned, and demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. L focuses on the range of [7200 - 7350] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply will face pressure due to device restarts and new capacity releases. Peak - season demand is starting, and inventory has declined from high levels. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose, but the absolute price is low [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions on dips. PP focuses on the range of [6900 - 7000] [21]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price decreased slightly, and the spot price in Changzhou remained flat. The number of warehouse receipts increased [24][25]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute price is low, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. Cost support has weakened due to the continuous decline of thermal coal prices. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory has been accumulating for 10 weeks. Production is expected to increase after some enterprises' maintenance ends [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions due to low - valuation support. V focuses on the range of [4800 - 4950] [25]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price increased, and the PX11 contract closed higher. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side domestic and overseas device changes are not significant. Demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and device maintenance volumes are high. Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still relatively high. Macro factors such as the "anti - involution" expectation in the domestic chemical industry, international geopolitical conflicts, and the expected Fed rate cut in September support the short - term bullish trend [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. PX511 focuses on the range of [6800 - 6920] [29]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA spot price in East China decreased, and the TA01 contract closed lower. The month - spread and basis weakened. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [31]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. Supply pressure is expected to increase in the future. Demand is showing signs of recovery, and downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. Consider long positions on dips due to low processing fees and increased market risk appetite [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions carefully, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. TA01 focuses on the range of [4730 - 4790] [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China decreased, and the EG01 contract closed higher. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, and overseas device changes are not significant. Arrival and import volumes are still low. Demand is improving, but market expectations suggest an increase in arrival volumes in the second half of August, increasing supply - side pressure [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions at high prices, and look for short - selling opportunities. EG01 focuses on the range of [4330 - 4390] [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China decreased, and the 01 contract closed lower. The basis and month - spread showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming, and supply - side pressure is increasing. Demand is weak overall, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support has weakened. Consider short positions on the 01 contract at high prices [38][39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract at high prices. MA01 focuses on the range of [2360 - 2400] [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong increased, and the main contract closed lower. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Urea daily production is expected to decline this week but may gradually recover in mid - September. Supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weakening. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, there is intense long - short competition, with mainly range - bound fluctuations. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Near the military parade node, market funds have shown signs of pre - emptive action. Driven by heavy - weight sectors, the broader market was relatively stable on the day. Affected by the sentiment related to the military parade, the market may stage a phased rally, but attention should be paid to the adjustment pressure after the rally. In the short term, the market may face shock consolidation, but in the medium - to - long term, it still has an upward foundation [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice clarifying 4 tax - exemption measures to support the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash proceeds transferred to enrich the social security fund. The measures are effective from April 1, 2024, and eligible taxpayers who have already paid taxes before the notice can get a refund. This tax preference directly boosts the investment return rate of the social security fund by reducing the operating costs of the receiving entities. Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, lower than the market expectation of 49, and remained below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index rose to 51.4, expanding for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index dropped 3.6 points to 47.8, falling back into the contraction range [1] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indices fluctuated and adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to close at 3858.13 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.85%. Most sector indices declined, with banking, public utilities, and household appliances sectors leading the gains, while communication, computer, electronics, and national defense and military industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on the day was 2.87 trillion yuan. Overseas, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on August 29 that the law cited by Trump when imposing tariffs on multiple countries did not actually authorize him to levy these taxes. The three major US stock indices closed down across the board, with the Nasdaq falling 0.82% to 21279.63 points [2] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the deep discount situation of IC and IM improved. Both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [2] 2. Strategy - Near the military parade node, market funds have shown pre - emptive action. Driven by heavy - weight sectors, the broader market was relatively stable on the day. Affected by the sentiment related to the military parade, the market may stage a phased rally, but attention should be paid to the adjustment pressure after the rally. In the short term, the market may face shock consolidation, but in the medium - to - long term, it still has an upward foundation [3] 3. Macro - economic Charts - The content mainly includes charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][9][11] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on September 1, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.29%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.60%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.00%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.84%. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [13][14] 5. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts show changes. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract was 144,297 with a change of - 55,399, and the open interest was 276,618 with a change of - 16,713 [15] - The basis data of stock index futures show the basis and its changes for different contracts (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) of IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the current - month contract basis of the IF contract was - 13.11 with a change of - 22.55 [39] - The inter - delivery spread data of stock index futures show the spreads and their changes between different delivery months (next month - current month, next quarter - current month, etc.) for IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of the IF contract was - 7.60 with a change of - 2.20 [42]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the analysis of fuel oil, the overall price is expected to be slightly stronger, indicating a moderately positive outlook [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, but reduced Western arbitrage shipments in September and moderate bunker demand may limit the downside. The overall fuel oil market fundamentals have slightly improved, and the overall price is expected to run slightly stronger. The FU2510 is expected to operate in the 2820 - 2860 range, and the LU2511 in the 3510 - 3560 range [3]. - Overnight geopolitical risk events have boosted the market, and fuel oil prices have followed suit. The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily提示 - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral, with the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure slightly down but potential support from reduced Western shipments and moderate demand. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory has decreased, which is also bullish. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. The high - sulfur main position is short - dominated with a reduction in short positions (bearish), while the low - sulfur main position has switched from short to long (bullish). Overall, the price is expected to be slightly stronger. The FU2510 is expected to trade between 2820 - 2860, and the LU2511 between 3510 - 3560 [3]. 3.2多空关注 - **Likely to be bullish**: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. 3.3基本面数据 - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, but reduced Western arbitrage shipments in September and moderate bunker demand may limit the downside. The 9 - 10 month swap spread for Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil is $1.25 per ton, and the spot discount on August 29 has narrowed to - 42 cents per ton [3]. - **Basis**: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 108 yuan per ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 133 yuan per ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 27 was 2188.9 million barrels, a decrease of 203 million barrels [3]. - **Market chart**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - **Main positions**: The high - sulfur main position is short - dominated with a reduction in short positions, while the low - sulfur main position has switched from short to long [3]. 3.4价差数据 - The report does not provide a detailed analysis of spread data, only showing the price changes of the FU and LU main contracts and their spreads, with the FU main contract price down 0.18% and the LU main contract price down 0.57%. The FU basis has increased by 174.63%, and the LU basis by 84.18% [5]. 3.5库存数据 - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 18 to August 27 shows fluctuations, with a significant decrease of 203 million barrels in the week of August 27 to 2188.9 million barrels [8].