长久以来，京沪双城始终是观察中国高端住宅市场的风向标。然而近年来，上海豪宅市场在成交总量、单价表现、面积段突破及去化速度等维度全面领 跑，令业界目光持续聚焦黄浦江畔。直至2025年盛夏，建发.海晏的横空出世，彻底改写了这一市场认知格局。 2025年的楼市，已经步入深度调整期，市场格局呈现显著的结构性特征：核心城市优质资产受到市场追捧，尤其具备稀缺资源与卓越产品力的顶豪项目表 现亮眼；与此同时，部分区域市场进入理性调整阶段。在这场结构性变革中，位于三山五园环抱处、海淀清河畔、对望清华的建发.海晏，以开盘当月网 签138套、总价40.58亿，领跑全国豪宅市场，为行业注入一剂强心针，更以13.5万/㎡的网签均价、直逼16.1万的最高单价，宣告北京豪宅价值坐标的全面 重构。 这是一场由文化自信与空间革命引领的价值重估，正在重塑中国高端住宅格局。 K型分化下的价值灯塔 6月12日，这场被业内称为"海淀现象"的营销事件悄然启幕。项目方一反行业常态，摒弃传统捷报形式，仅以一幅鎏金海报昭示诚意——"我们每一步的全 力以赴，只为这一次的璀璨相逢，致谢厚爱"。 这份克制的表达，反而激起市场更强烈的好奇。现场流出的销售数据显示：首 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 7 月 1 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：许多关税的定价尚未反映到经济中。 ...

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者冰姐 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 时光飞逝，仿佛须臾之间，我们挥手作别了2025年上半年。 这半年间： 从特朗普政府的关税政策反复摇摆，到海外地缘政治争端一波未平一波又起，从DeepSeek以惊人效率突破AI算力封锁，到全球资金开始了新一轮的迁 徙，大类资产的投资图景正在经历一场悄无声息的重构。 下一站，多元资产配置——在这个经济全球化遭遇逆风、技术革命"起于青萍之末"的时代，投资者需要的不是预测风暴的能力，而是在风暴中 保持航向的定力。 01 混沌之中的上半年 ——全球资金再平衡实录 翻开大类资产上半年的成绩单，"资金盛与资产荒"精准勾勒了其间的市场底色。 海内外的流动性如同潮水，却在现实世界中似乎找不到足够的优质资产停泊。 在此背景之下，"确定性"资产迎来狂欢， 黄金 成为了明星选手。 相较于南华商品指数的整体收跌，国际现货黄金26%的涨幅背后，是地缘冲突与美元信用松动的双重叙事。 从贸易争端阴云未散，到中东局势骤然生变，黄金的避险属性被无限放大，但更深远的力量来自全球央行持续增持——预计2025年购买量将达 1000吨。中国央行更是连续第7个 ...

Group 1 - The first half of 2025 has seen a significant rebalancing of global funds, characterized by a "funding boom and asset scarcity" [2][4] - Gold has emerged as a star asset, with a 26% increase in international spot gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts and a weakening dollar [5][37] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reaching 73.83 million ounces, indicating a collective move towards "de-dollarization" [5][37] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing volatility, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating above 4.0%, while China's 10-year government bond yields have dropped to a historical low of 1.65% [6][7] - Credit bond ETFs have rapidly gained popularity, with a total market size exceeding 210 billion yuan, reflecting a shift towards stable income assets [8] - The divergence in economic cycles between the U.S. and China is evident, with the U.S. experiencing a slowdown while China is bottoming out [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience, with the Hang Seng Index leading global markets with a 20.5% increase, supported by liquidity from southbound funds [10] - The A-share market has seen strong sector rotation, particularly in the AI industry and consumer sectors, indicating a lack of a consistent overarching theme [11][15] - The current market is driven by liquidity, with expectations of a stabilization in earnings, suggesting a potential return to value-based investing [15] Group 4 - Three key underlying logics have emerged in the market: the continuous rise of certainty premiums, the revaluation of industrial narratives, and the rebalancing of global asset allocation [16][19] - The demand for certainty is reflected in the strong performance of gold and high-dividend assets, as investors seek visible cash flows amid macro uncertainties [17] - The AI industry is transitioning from concept to performance, with significant growth in cloud business revenues and capital expenditures among leading tech firms [18] Group 5 - The outlook for major asset classes in the second half of 2025 emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation amid increasing market volatility [23][24] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, with a focus on both undervalued, high-dividend value stocks and growth sectors driven by AI [27][28] - The U.S. stock market faces risks from high valuations and downward adjustments in earnings expectations, necessitating caution [32]

今年以来，港股表现强势，互联网、新消费、创新药轮番上涨，成为中国资产中一道亮眼的风景线。 在富国基金港股通红利精选基金经理、海外权益部投资总监宁君看来，"好公司是港股最大的优势"。今年以 来，她管理多只基金凭借对新消费、互联网的前瞻布局脱颖而出，以富国蓝筹精选为例，2025年一季报显示， 该基金同时重仓了泡泡玛特、浪潮数字企业、网易云音乐等。截至2025年6月24日，近一年收益率超45%，在 同类基金中排名前列。 而对于估值，她相较灵活："我们都希望拿到市场性价比最高的公司，但估值没有固定标准。在有一些市场环 境下，结合基本面分析，容易下结论股票是明确低估或者高估；而在另一些情况下则需要随行就市，在有的市 场或者行业，10倍PE可能很贵，换一种情况，15倍也可能便宜，关键看性价比。" 她以某潮玩龙头举例说道："它的核心IP均为独家授权，这种独占性构筑了护城河。虽然市场曾质疑其IP生命 周期，但实际运营中，越是爆火的IP反而越可能延续——粉丝基数形成天然壁垒，这种壁垒一旦形成，成长空 间和盈利韧性会远超预期，然后快速消化估值。" 在采访中，宁君多次提及潮玩龙头这一"现象级案例"，深度研究后，宁君说道："类比国外 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 合成橡胶成本定价逻辑偏强，关注供给端扰动与去库进度 | 投资观点： | 短期偏弱震荡，等待下半年反弹机会 | 合成橡胶（BR） | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-6-30 | 半年报告 | ⚫ 行情回顾 上半年 BR 期货价格重心偏低，整体波动性减弱。4 月受中美关税升 级及丁二烯供给过剩拖累，价格跌破 12000 元/吨。5 月中因中美关税缓和 预期及恒力装置故障导致丁二烯短缺预期，价格短暂冲高。随后基本面弱 势主导，价格重回底部震荡。近期因地缘冲突推涨原油带动 BR 小幅上 行，但涨幅有限，走势仍与天胶高度相关。 单边：短期盘面偏弱震荡运行，建议投资者观望； 套利：关注多 BR 空 NR/RU 价差回归。 ⚫ 风险提示 地缘冲突升级、关税政策影响、轮胎出口超预期回暖、天然橡胶主 产区极端天气导致价差逻辑反转。 ⚫ 原料端：产油国增产持续推进，地缘局势导致盘面短期冲高上行 原油： 上半年震荡下行，主因 OPEC+持续增产至 7 月及供需宽松预 期强化。短期地缘冲突推高波动，但中长期宽松格局未改。 丁二烯： 上半年价格波动大 ...

地缘政治风险的实质性消退加速了多头的获利了结。以色列与哈马斯在开罗达成临时停火协议后，市场避险需求出现明显收缩。黄金 ETF 持仓数据显示， 全球最大黄金 ETF——SPDR Gold Shares 当周净流出达 8.7 吨，终结了连续六周的增持趋势。风险偏好的修复使得资金开始向权益类资产倾斜，美股三大指 数同期均录得 2% 以上涨幅。 6 月第三周国际金价创下年内最大单周跌幅，累计下挫 2.8% 至每盎司 2280 美元区间。市场在美联储鹰派立场与地缘风险缓和的夹击下，黄金作为传统避险 资产的定价逻辑正在经历深度重构。 美元指数在利率市场预期修正中重获支撑，成为压制金价的核心推手。联邦基金利率期货显示，交易员将美联储首次降息时点从 9 月推迟至 11 月，美债收 益率曲线陡峭化推动美元指数回升至 106 关口上方。美元计价体系下，这种货币政策的预期差直接削弱了黄金的持有吸引力，特别是当实际利率维持在 1.8% 高位时，零息资产的黄金面临持续估值压力。 供需结构的边际变化强化了价格调整动能。世界黄金协会最新报告指出，二季度全球金饰需求同比下降 12%，印度市场的季节性采购疲软超出预期。央行 购金节奏虽维持高位 ...

Group 1 - The event "2025 Futures Empowering Green Finance Development" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on how the futures market can support the renewable energy sector [1] - Prior to the introduction of futures products like lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, the renewable energy industry lacked effective hedging tools, exposing companies to significant market volatility [1] - The introduction of futures tools allows companies to hedge against spot price fluctuations, lock in operating profits, reduce spot holding costs, and improve capital efficiency [1] Group 2 - Companies in the renewable energy sector should focus on developing professional teams and establishing robust systems to enhance hedging capabilities and avoid speculative risks [2] - Training programs provided by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange can strengthen the hedging abilities of enterprises, and there is a call for increased training efforts to support industry clients [2] - The collaboration between enterprises and the futures market is essential for building international pricing power and promoting high-quality development in the renewable energy industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tongyu New Materials (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. is set to issue an initial public offering (IPO) of 10 million shares at a price of 84.00 yuan per share, with a diluted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.94 times based on the 2024 net profit, which is lower than the industry average P/E ratio of 38.62 times as of June 26, 2025 [1][9][10]. Company Overview - Tongyu New Materials operates in the "C39 Computer, Communication and Other Electronic Equipment Manufacturing" industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of electronic resins, primarily used in copper-clad laminate production [1][8][9]. - The company's product range includes MDI modified epoxy resins, DOPO modified epoxy resins, high-bromine epoxy resins, BPA phenolic epoxy resins, and phosphorus phenolic resin curing agents, which are essential components in modern electronic products [8][9]. Financial Metrics - The IPO price of 84.00 yuan per share corresponds to a diluted static P/E ratio of 23.94 times based on the lower of the non-recurring profit for 2024, which is significantly lower than the recent industry average static P/E ratio of 38.62 times [9][10][15]. - The rolling P/E ratio for the first four quarters (April 2024 to March 2025) is calculated at 24.00 times, also below the industry average rolling P/E ratio of 36.03 times [10][15]. Market Context - The average static P/E ratio for the C39 industry as of June 26, 2025, is 38.62 times, while the average rolling P/E ratio is 36.03 times, indicating that Tongyu's pricing is positioned favorably within the market context [9][10][15]. - The company has been compared with peers such as Dongcai Technology, Hongchang Electronics, and Shengquan Group, which have similar product lines and applications in the copper-clad laminate sector [11][12][13]. IPO Details - The IPO will be conducted through an online direct pricing method, with no lock-up arrangements for the shares, and is scheduled for July 1, 2025 [2][3]. - The total expected fundraising amount is 840 million yuan, with a net amount of approximately 760 million yuan after deducting estimated issuance costs [16][17].