2025 年 07 月 13 日 银行：会跌倒么？ 本周上证指数涨 1.09%，创业板指涨 2.36%，恒生指数涨 0.93%，大盘股涨幅居前，本周全 A 日均交易额 14961 亿，环比上周有所上升。这点符合我们在上期周报《最佳的选择："创"》 的判断："大盘指数维持强势"，但眼下不急于对大盘指数"牛不牛"下判断（尤其是快牛）， "找准结构和方向"依然是最重要的。现阶段风险偏好抬升是定价核心矛盾，科技科创依然 是维持占优推荐，而相对低估值分位的大盘成长（创业板指）或将成为最为受益的方向。同 时，在上周周报中我们强调今年本轮 A 股大盘整体超预期偏强：即银行板块贡献了上半年绝 大多数的涨幅，上证指数从年初的 3347 点涨到最新 3510 点附近，银行对大盘贡献高达到 118.13 点。客观而言，只要银行维持上涨，那么"银行搭台、多方唱戏"将延续，大盘较难"二 次探底"。 本周五大盘指数出现冲高回落，对应银行板块发生下跌，市场生怕"银行跌倒"？目前银行 确实涨很久了，难免会有见顶回落的忧虑。我们认为现在没看到明确的理由，暂不是看空银 行的时候。目前，从估值提升的角度，资金对于银行的抱团大致接近 2020 年中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wangfujing Group Co., Ltd. expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 64 million to 95 million yuan, representing a decrease of 67% to 78% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 64 million to 95 million yuan for the first half of 2025, down from 29.311 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a reduction of 19.811 million to 22.911 million yuan [1][2]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 22 million to 32 million yuan, a decrease of 28.838 million to 29.838 million yuan compared to the previous year [1][2]. Reasons for Performance Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to the company's structural adjustment phase and the transition between old and new growth drivers, as it actively responds to changing consumer trends [2][3]. - The company is undergoing adjustments in business formats and store operations, including the opening of 2 new shopping center stores and the comprehensive transformation of 2 department stores to better meet consumer demands [2][3]. - The closure of 3 stores due to expired lease contracts has led to a decrease in revenue and increased costs related to personnel placement, impacting the company's performance for the year [2][3]. - New business formats and stores are still in the cultivation phase, with revenue growth not yet sufficient to cover fixed costs, compounded by higher initial costs due to new leasing standards [3]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to balance short-term benefits with long-term development by focusing on its retail core business, accelerating the iteration of business formats, and optimizing cost structures to enhance operational efficiency [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Jiangsu Urban Football League ("Su Chao") has gained significant popularity, reflecting the growing demand for entertainment and consumption in the region, which is indicative of economic development stages [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact - "Su Chao" serves as a new consumption scene, potentially boosting domestic demand and providing fresh ideas for economic stimulation [9]. - The league's success is closely tied to the cultural and tourism industry, showcasing the effective management and creative strategies of the Jiangsu provincial government [8][15]. - The event has led to increased local tourism, with over 73 million visitors reported on match days, highlighting its economic benefits for cities like Nantong [11]. Group 2: Community Engagement - The league fosters a strong sense of local identity among fans, as each city has its own unique history and culture, contributing to sustained enthusiasm for the matches [8][12]. - The organization of matches has been well-received, with high-quality engagement from both players and fans, indicating a positive community atmosphere [7][8]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The sustainability of "Su Chao" is expected to be high, with potential for further development in local sports infrastructure and youth training programs [12][18]. - Other cities in China can learn from Jiangsu's approach, but must adapt strategies to their unique circumstances to replicate success [17].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that the CPI turned positive in June, primarily driven by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with energy and core goods showing improvement [1][2] - CPI food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with pork prices shifting from a 3.1% increase to an 8.5% decrease, negatively impacting CPI by 0.14 percentage points [2] - Industrial consumer goods prices improved, with CPI for these goods decreasing by 0.8%, a reduction in the decline by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][9] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI further widened its year-on-year decline from -3.3% to -3.6%, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, with 26 out of 30 categories showing no growth month-on-month [4][5] - Domestic and international energy prices exhibited divergent trends, with international oil prices recovering due to geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell due to seasonal demand and high inventory levels [5][6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve prices in certain sectors, with prices for gasoline and new energy vehicles showing smaller year-on-year declines [6] Group 3: Policy Implications - The focus is on expanding domestic demand and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, addressing the supply-demand imbalance exacerbated by external uncertainties [7][8] - Policies are anticipated to promote consumption and improve supply-side regulations to correct market failures, aiming for a reasonable recovery in prices and sustainable innovation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain an optimistic trend in the short term, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with structural opportunities likely to emerge continuously [2][6]. Short-term Events and Long-term Logic - Recent market highs are driven by visible short-term events and overlooked long-term logic, with low inflation levels indicating core issues of insufficient demand, while core CPI excluding energy and food remains relatively high [4][5]. - Improved market sentiment is linked to positive data from the National Bureau of Statistics, reflecting a recovery in the consumption market and investment environment, which boosts market confidence [4][5]. Market Outlook - Fund companies believe that the overall optimistic pattern of the A-share market is likely to continue, relying on the synergy of fundamentals and policies [7][8]. - Current market valuations have recovered from last year's lows but remain relatively cheap, with expectations of continued market activity driven by policy support and liquidity [7][8]. Structural Opportunities - Structural opportunities are expected to emerge, particularly in technology sectors, with a focus on industries like military, new energy, and semiconductor [10]. - Investment strategies should consider policy beneficiaries, growth recovery opportunities, and defensive value configurations, such as high-dividend bank stocks [10][11]. Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has seen significant gains, driven by increased allocation from incremental funds, particularly insurance capital, and the favorable PB-ROE gap [11]. - The low interest rate environment enhances the attractiveness of bank stocks due to their high dividend yields, aligning with the needs of allocation-type funds [11].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the external uncertainty from tariffs is expected to gradually spread, with the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" 90-day deadline approaching, suggesting that most economies may struggle to resolve tariff issues within this timeframe [4][13][15] - The domestic policy is anticipated to remain proactive yet restrained, with the need to maintain sufficient policy space to address potential extreme risk scenarios while avoiding excessive short-term stimulus that could disrupt long-term goals [30][32][38] Group 2 - The report highlights that the improvement in domestic demand is a key driver for economic and corporate profit recovery, with expectations that consumer confidence will continue to rise due to the rebound in residents' income and wealth effects [77][78][83] - The real estate sector is showing signs of gradual recovery, with new home sales and land transaction data improving, indicating a potential positive impact on the overall economy [83][88][91] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the capital market's liquidity remains high, with a significant number of stocks experiencing substantial gains, which has fostered a strong investment sentiment among individual investors [116][122][134] - The importance of the equity market is underscored by ongoing policy support aimed at enhancing residents' property income and maintaining market stability [136]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing digital transformation and AI implementation in the aluminum industry, with a focus on enhancing industrial intelligence and efficiency in production [1] - The report indicates that the demand for tin is expected to increase due to the driving forces of AI and the new energy industry, while global tin resource reserves are limited to only 14.8 years, exacerbated by the production halt in Myanmar [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry is showing resilience driven by new demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and low-altitude economy, while black metals are under pressure due to a sluggish real estate market [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF tracks the non-ferrous mining index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in non-ferrous metal mining and processing in the A-share market [2] - This index is characterized by strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively representing market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the recent performance of the A-share market has been stronger than expected, driven by optimism regarding the transition from old to new economic drivers, particularly in technology and consumption sectors [1][11]. - The article highlights that the recent CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while PPI fell by 3.6%, indicating a divergence in inflation trends that could impact market sentiment [3][6]. - The banking sector has shown resilience, with major banks reaching historical highs, contributing to the market's fluctuations around the 3500-point mark [11][12]. Group 2 - The article discusses the cautious outlook from Citigroup regarding inflation trends, emphasizing the need for more policy actions to stabilize the economy [9]. - It notes that the supply-side reforms are showing mixed results across different industries, with automotive PPI stabilizing while other sectors like black metals are experiencing negative trends [6][9]. - The article mentions that the upcoming political meetings and policy announcements will be critical for market direction and investor sentiment [9][13]. Group 3 - The article reports significant earnings growth projections for several companies, with estimates indicating a net profit increase of 126% to 148% for Yonghe Shares and a staggering 2443% to 2835% for Shenda Shares, driven by rising product prices [20]. - It highlights the active performance of the entertainment sector, particularly with the upcoming release of a popular sequel, which has positively influenced related stocks [12][20]. - The article also notes the recent developments in smart parking technology by BYD, marking a significant advancement in the automotive sector [18].

Group 1 - The current A-share market is entering a critical phase of new and old kinetic energy conversion, with the market index performing stronger than expected due to improving mid-term pessimistic factors and increasing confidence in the conversion process [1][9]. - The four-stage framework of new and old kinetic energy conversion includes: "new and old interweaving," "new surpassing old," "the last song of the old," and "the new era," with the A-share market currently in the "new surpassing old" stage [4][9]. - The "new" elements include the potential rise of Hong Kong stocks as new core assets, the importance of overseas expansion for A-share growth, advancements in hardware technology (AI semiconductors, military, innovative drugs), and a new consumption investment model centered around the New Consumption 50 [4][9]. Group 2 - The comparison with Japan's experience in the early 2010s highlights the need for external demand to support industrial restructuring, as Japanese companies increasingly sought overseas expansion to overcome domestic market saturation [3][35]. - Japan's new and old kinetic energy conversion was supported by internal demand recovery, characterized by rising corporate profitability, completed deleveraging, and increasing disposable income, which laid the foundation for moderate domestic recovery [53][59]. - The Japanese real estate market stabilized post-2012, contributing to internal demand recovery and economic confidence, with core city property prices rebounding and office vacancy rates declining [64][68]. Group 3 - The stock market performance during Japan's new and old kinetic energy conversion was closely linked to improvements in total factor productivity (TFP), which drove systematic valuation increases in the Nikkei index [74][75]. - The current A-share market is expected to experience a similar trajectory, with the conversion process potentially leading to a sustained upward shift in market confidence and index levels [40].

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing strong performance driven by active credit expansion from commercial banks, despite a contraction in total demand from the real economy [2][3] - The banking sector has been a core driver of the market, contributing significantly to the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index, with the banking index up over 15% year-to-date [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying structural opportunities and directions rather than focusing solely on the overall market index performance [1][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that the current market environment is characterized by a shift towards quality growth, moving away from low-end manufacturing and investment-driven growth models [60][64] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize resource allocation and enhance supply quality, which is expected to impact traditional industries such as steel, cement, and photovoltaic glass positively [54][55] - The report highlights that the current phase of the A-share market is in a transition from old to new economic drivers, with a focus on new consumption and technology sectors [4][9] Group 3 - The report notes that the inflow of southbound funds has resumed, with significant investments in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and high-dividend stocks, indicating a shift in investment focus [23][28] - The report discusses the importance of monitoring the balance of stock and bond asset allocation, as the low-interest-rate environment has led to a pronounced "see-saw" effect between equity and bond markets [50][52] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics are reminiscent of previous years, where consumer and technology sectors drove market performance amid structural adjustments [9][31] Group 4 - The report outlines that the current economic environment allows for a target growth rate of around 5% for the year, with no significant risk of economic slowdown [4][60] - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to lead to a reduction in excess capacity and improve profitability in various sectors, particularly in traditional industries facing intense competition [63][64] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous observation of the market's response to policy changes and economic indicators, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade negotiations and fiscal policies in the U.S. [11][12]