玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/17 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃：供应端整体保持低位波动状态不变；价格低位，冷修预期将增强 纯碱：5月-6月厂家检修逐步兑现；出口超预期，缓解国内过剩压力 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 29.21% | 78.7% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 21.17% | 20.3% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 璃 | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心玻璃价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失 ...

Core Viewpoint - The low inventory levels in the asphalt market have prompted traders to utilize futures tools for risk management, indicating a bullish market outlook despite low production and demand constraints [1][2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 2024, winter storage of asphalt is at 850,000 tons, marking a multi-year low. Both social and factory inventories remain at historically low levels, limiting production release due to low profit margins and operating rates [2]. - The winter storage price of 3,420 CNY/ton is aligned with the cost price of 3,450 CNY/ton for resources in Q1 2025, suggesting limited downside for prices unless there is a significant drop in crude oil prices [2]. Price Comparison and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt futures relative to Brent crude oil is at 0.9, which is considered reasonable based on historical low inventory scenarios from 2018 and 2022 [2]. - The basis for buying hedges was 50 CNY/ton, with historical data indicating that even during low inventory periods, the basis could fall below -200 CNY/ton in Q1 [2]. Trading Operations - On December 12, 2024, a company bought 2,000 contracts of March asphalt futures at 3,510 CNY/ton, with a current spot price of 3,560 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis of 50 CNY/ton [3]. - By early February 2025, the basis weakened to -197 CNY/ton, with futures rising to 3,797 CNY/ton and spot prices increasing to 3,600 CNY/ton. The company closed its futures position and procured products from the spot market [3][4]. Profit and Loss Analysis - The company realized a profit of 5,740,000 CNY from the futures market, while incurring a loss of 800,000 CNY from the spot market, effectively covering the losses with the gains from the futures [3][4]. Significance - The company's strategic market analysis and strong operational capabilities in the futures market allowed it to mitigate price risks, enhance competitiveness, and stabilize operations, serving as a valuable reference for the asphalt industry and beyond [5].

● 本报记者 王超 2025年1月-5月，广发期货企业套保需求明显提升。面对地缘冲突加剧、出口订单萎缩的双重压力，实 体企业正加速拥抱期货工具。近日广发期货党委书记、董事长周伟在接受中国证券报记者专访时透露， 通过创新套保模式，公司已帮助企业锁定8000吨橡胶的贸易利润，更在河南兰考为6000余户花生种植户 撑起"价格保护伞"。 "这不仅是数字的增长，更是企业风险管理意识的觉醒。"周伟认为，当前中小企业避险需求呈现三大新 趋势——从单品种对冲转向产业链套保、从被动避险升级为主动定价、从大型企业向中小微主体快速渗 透。与此同时，广发期货正用三国小剧场、模拟交易大赛等创新形式，让更多企业摘下期货"高风险"的 有色眼镜，让套保知识看得见、摸得着。 从橡胶套保到花生"保险+" 期货市场当好企业"压舱石" 记者了解到，2025年以来，外部不确定性增加，部分企业出口订单减少，地缘政治冲突蔓延加剧全球供 应链风险，企业经营成本增加。然而，外部冲击增加使得企业加大了对风险的研判和避险投入，1月-5 月广发期货客户对套保方案需求明显提升。 期货市场通过价格发现、风险管理和资源配置三大功能，有效平抑大宗商品价格波动，对稳定企业经 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core View - Polypropylene (PP) is greatly affected by the macro - situation, including Sino - US negotiations and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, bringing significant uncertainty to the market. However, the fundamentals of PP have changed little recently. With increasing supply pressure and weak demand, the upside potential of PP is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The monthly price range of PP is predicted to be between 6,800 and 7,100 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 9.69%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 12.0% [1]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7,050 - 7,100 yuan, and sell PP2509C7000 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6,800 - 6,900 yuan, and sell PP2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - situation has a great impact on polyolefins. The supply of PP is under pressure due to reduced planned maintenance and upcoming new device launches. The demand is weak as it is the traditional off - season for downstream orders and the downstream profit is poor this year [2]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - Current device maintenance is at a high level, leading to a marginal reduction in supply. - The current market is at a low level, limiting the downside space. - Tensions in the Middle East may drive up oil prices, supporting polyolefins [3]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Yulong Line 2 was launched during the Dragon Boat Festival, and multiple devices will be launched from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. - The seasonal peak of exports has passed, and subsequent exports are expected to decline. - It is the off - season for downstream sales, and domestic demand is weak due to poor overall profits this year [4]. 3.6 Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On June 12, 2025, the PP01 contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, the PP05 contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, and the PP09 contract was 6,969 yuan/ton. There were corresponding daily and weekly changes in these contracts and their spreads [5][7]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On June 12, 2025, the spot price in North China was 6,975 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,195 yuan/ton. There were also changes in regional spreads [7]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: There were changes in the spreads between different non - standard and standard PP products, such as the spread between homopolymer injection molding and wire drawing [7]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: The Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US propane price was 543.032 dollars/ton, etc. There were different profit situations for various PP production methods, such as oil - based, coal - based, etc. [7].

Group 1 - The current supply-demand situation in the pig market shows a high enthusiasm for pig sales from the breeding end, while demand remains weak, prompting the government to initiate pork reserve storage [1][2] - The National Pork Reserve policy serves as an important tool in stabilizing supply and prices in the pig industry, with the recent storage action being the first significant one this year [1][2] - The average price of external three yuan pigs as of June 10 was 14.01 yuan/kg, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.8 yuan/kg since the May Day holiday, indicating a weak price trend due to supply-demand imbalance [3][4] Group 2 - The government initiated temporary pork reserve storage due to continuous declines in pig prices and shrinking breeding profits, with the pig-to-grain ratio indicating a need for intervention [2][4] - The current breeding profit per pig is estimated at 80.10 yuan, a significant drop from over 400 yuan in the same period last year, highlighting the financial pressure on large pig enterprises and the impact on small breeders [4][5] - The "insurance + futures" projects have been implemented to support small breeders, with 17 projects launched this year, safeguarding 250,000 pigs against market price fluctuations [5]

Report Overview - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Report Core View: The current PE market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is in a centralized maintenance season, but the high - capacity growth still leads to an overall supply increase. The demand side is affected by low - profit environments and the off - season, with no obvious demand drivers. Attention should be paid to the conversion of full - density devices due to the high HD - LL spread [2]. Price Forecast - Monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.8% [1]. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For producers with high product inventory worried about price drops: - Short 25% of L2509 plastic futures at 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [1]. - Sell 50% of L2509C7200 call options at a premium of 70 - 120 yuan/ton to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1]. Procurement Management - For buyers with low regular inventory and wanting to purchase according to orders: - Buy 50% of L2509 plastic futures at 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [1]. - Sell 75% of L2509P6900 put options at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1]. Market Factors Bullish Factors - PE devices are in a seasonal maintenance period, and the centralized maintenance season is expected to last until July [3]. - The current futures price is at a relatively low level, with limited downward space [3]. - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread may lead to more conversions of full - density devices [3]. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year [7]. - The off - season of downstream production and sales and the low - profit environment have led to a decrease in domestic demand [7]. - Although the plastic spot has shown signs of price support recently, the overall trading volume is weak [7]. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic Main Basis | 94 | 107 | 202 | - 13 | - 108 | yuan/ton | | L01 Contract | 7078 | 7050 | 6936 | 28 | 142 | yuan/ton | | L05 Contract | 7067 | 7036 | 6935 | 31 | 132 | yuan/ton | | L09 Contract | 7106 | 7078 | 6963 | 28 | 143 | yuan/ton | | L1 - 5 Month Spread | 11 | 14 | 1 | - 3 | 10 | yuan/ton | | L5 - 9 Month Spread | - 39 | - 42 | - 28 | 3 | - 11 | yuan/ton | | L9 - 1 Month Spread | - 28 | - 28 | - 27 | 0 | - 1 | yuan/ton | | L - P Spread | 165 | 146 | 79 | 19 | 86 | yuan/ton | [5][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | North China | 7100 | 7030 | 7030 | 70 | 70 | yuan/ton | | East China | - | 7160 | 7190 | - 7160 | - 7190 | yuan/ton | | South China | 7270 | 7200 | 7170 | 70 | 100 | yuan/ton | | East - North Spread | - | 130 | 160 | - 130 | - 160 | yuan/ton | | East - South Spread | - | - 40 | 20 | 40 | - 20 | yuan/ton | [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HDPE Film - LLDPE Film | 425 | 440 | 510 | - 15 | - 85 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Hollow - LLDPE Film | 425 | 445 | 435 | - 20 | - 10 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Injection - LLDPE Film | 375 | 390 | 410 | - 15 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Drawing - LLDPE Film | 675 | 690 | 720 | - 15 | - 45 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Pipe - LLDPE Film | 1500 | 1515 | 1535 | - 15 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | LDPE Film - LLDPE Film | 1975 | 1865 | 1910 | 110 | 65 | yuan/ton | [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude Oil Price | 66 | 66 | 65.63 | 0 | 0.64 | dollars/barrel | | US Ethane Price | 0.2375 | 0.2371 | 0.2246 | 0.0004 | 0.0129 | dollars/gallon | | Northwest Coal Price | 470 | 470 | 470 | 0 | 0 | yuan/ton | | East China Methanol Price | 2430 | 2390 | 2320 | 40 | 110 | yuan/ton | | Oil - based PE Profit | - | 72 | 96 | - 71.5591 | - 95.8048 | yuan/ton | | Coal - based PE Profit | 783 | 768 | 716 | 15 | 67.25 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Methanol - based PE Profit | 215 | 238 | 300 | - 22.5 | - 85 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Ethane - based PE Profit | 1563 | 1547 | 1683.3354 | 15.8011 | - 120.0517 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Ethylene - based PE Profit | - | - 166 | - 191.8836 | 166.0898 | 191.8836 | yuan/ton | [8]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of basis pricing and futures hedging in the fertilizer industry effectively addresses supply chain challenges, stabilizes prices, and enhances risk management for agricultural stakeholders [11]. Industry Background - Since the implementation of supply-side structural reforms in 2015/2016, China's coal chemical urea production capacity has gradually decreased. The urea market saw a turning point in 2018 due to increased agricultural fertilizer demand driven by national food security strategies and rising industrial consumption from the real estate sector [6]. - The international situation, including trade frictions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has disrupted global fertilizer supply chains, leading to a peak domestic urea price of 3000 yuan/ton in 2022. This volatility has placed significant operational pressure on agricultural end-users due to delayed cost transmission [6]. Market Dynamics - The traditional trading model in China's agricultural input circulation system is dominated by a "buy low, sell high" strategy, which compresses procurement cycles and exacerbates market volatility. Retailers at the end of the supply chain often lack bargaining power, resulting in lower profit margins compared to provincial distributors [7]. - Approximately 18% of agricultural input trade volume has begun to adopt basis pricing models, but the penetration of futures tools remains limited due to farmers' lack of awareness [7]. Case Study - A company in Jiangsu experienced a decline in large granular urea prices from 1980 yuan/ton to 1600 yuan/ton over two months. As demand weakened near the Spring Festival, the company utilized a basis pricing model to sell approximately 4500 tons of urea, successfully alleviating inventory pressure and managing price declines [9]. Recommendations - To effectively implement basis pricing models, three support systems need to be established: a hedging accounting system and futures coordination management at the enterprise level, risk-sharing contract structures at the cooperative level, and enhanced risk management education for farmers [10]. Conclusion - The "basis pricing + futures hedging + forward orders" model addresses supply-demand bottlenecks in the urea industry, securing reasonable profits for upstream companies, mitigating price volatility for downstream traders, and ensuring low-cost fertilizer access for farmers, thereby contributing to national food security [11].

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7100-720 0 | | 理 | 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若苯乙烯上涨还可以锁定 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, polyethylene followed the rise of coking coal, but its own fundamentals changed little. On the supply side, PE plants are in the peak maintenance season, with a marginal decrease in supply. However, due to the large number of new plant startups at the beginning of the year, production is still significantly higher than the same period in previous years. On the demand side, the low - profit environment suppresses the operating rate, and the agricultural film is in the off - season of production and sales, resulting in weak demand [2] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include PE plants entering the seasonal maintenance period, which is expected to last until July, and the current futures price being at a relatively low level with limited downward space. Negative factors include the planned startups of multiple HDPE plants in the middle of the year and the reduction in domestic demand due to the off - season of downstream production and sales and the low - profit environment [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyethylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.89% and a historical percentile of 36.3% over the past 3 years [1] Polyethylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management (High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline)**: For the long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short L2509 plastic futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell L2509C7200 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 70 - 120 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1] - **Procurement Management (Low regular inventory, want to purchase according to orders)**: For the short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy L2509 plastic futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell L2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 130 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1] Polyethylene Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis on June 4, 2025, was 116 yuan/ton, showing a daily change of - 86 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 77 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts were 7018, 7000, and 7049 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 82, 65, and 86 yuan/ton and weekly increases of 39, 14, and 42 yuan/ton [5] - The L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 month - spreads were 18, - 49, and - 31 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes of 17, - 21, and - 4 yuan/ton and weekly changes of 25, - 28, and - 3 yuan/ton. The L - P spread was 101 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton [5] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 4, 2025, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7030, 7160, and 7170 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, - 30, and 0 yuan/ton, and the weekly changes were - 100, - 110, and - 110 yuan/ton [7] - The East China - North China and East China - South China regional spreads were 130 and - 10 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 30 and - 30 yuan/ton and weekly changes of - 10 and 0 yuan/ton [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between HDPE film, HDPE hollow, HDPE injection, HDPE drawing, HDPE pipe, LDPE film, and LLDPE film had different values and changes. For example, the HDPE film - LLDPE film spread was 510 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 5 yuan/ton [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - The Brent crude oil price was 66 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly increase of 2.06 dollars/barrel. The US ethane price was 0.225 dollars/gallon, with a daily increase of 0.0002 dollars/gallon and a weekly decrease of 0.0231 dollars/gallon [7] - The Northwest coal price was 475 yuan/ton with no change, and the East China methanol price was 2355 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 60 yuan/ton [7] - The oil - based PE profit was - (not provided), with a daily decrease of 95.8048 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 283.2918 yuan/ton. The coal - based PE profit was 716 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan/ton [7] - The profit from purchasing methanol externally to produce PE was 270 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 205 yuan/ton. The profit from purchasing ethane externally to produce PE was 1682 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.8709 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 209.1997 yuan/ton [7] - The profit from purchasing ethylene externally to produce PE was - (not provided) previously, with a daily increase of 191.8836 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 163.8362 yuan/ton [7]

苯乙烯风险管理日报 【核心矛盾】 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7100-720 0 | | 理 | 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若苯乙烯 ...