Report Summary 1. Core View - The weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather has gradually recovered. In the short term, Sino-US talks have increased the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. The domestic soybean system has weakened due to Sino-US talks in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month can open up the upward space. The domestic rapeseed system also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract price from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation continues to give high support to the far - month contract, but due to the recent negotiation expectation, the short - term sentiment may further suppress the market. The timing of going long needs to pay attention to the subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - The real pressure on the soybean meal side focuses on the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic of the market switches to the far - month, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybean raw materials in the country continues to be at a seasonal high, the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. In terms of arrivals, it is expected to be 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, the subsequent soybean arrivals are expected to face a gap after the first quarter of next year [6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about the decline in meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3055, up 16 (0.53%); soybean meal 05 is 2820, up 6 (0.21%); soybean meal 09 is 3022, up 33 (1.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2513, up 30 (1.21%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2424, up 16 (0.66%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2550, up 8 (0.31%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1048.25, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1214, down 0.0333 (-0.47%) [7][9]. Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 225, up 9; RM01 - 05 is 75, up 20; M05 - 09 is - 175, down 12; RM05 - 09 is - 134, down 8; M09 - 01 is - 50, up 3; RM09 - 01 is 59, down 12; the soybean meal Rizhao spot price is 3000, unchanged, and the basis is - 39, up 6; the rapeseed meal Fujian spot price is 2534, down 21, and the basis is 51, down 3; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 466, up 21, and the futures spread is 556, up 12 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4539.2712 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and down 0.1941 yuan/week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3973.63 yuan/ton, down 2.21 yuan/day and down 66.71 yuan/week; the cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 738.0929 yuan/ton, up 61.6559 yuan/day and up 57.307 yuan/week; the import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 604.8362 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and up 359.0468 yuan/week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 120.0737 yuan/ton, down 17.0232 yuan/day and down 0.0282 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 724 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 93 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 815 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 121 yuan/week [11].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the pulp industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment and transformation amid complex internal and external environments, with significant price fluctuations impacting companies' operations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of 2024, pulp prices showed a clear upward trend, leading to optimistic market expectations [1] - However, after high-level purchases of pulp by Company X, prices fell, resulting in inventory losses and increased storage costs [2] Group 2: Company Strategy - Company X, established in early 2020, began forming a pulp trading team by the end of 2021, achieving an annual trading volume of 340,000 tons and a trading value of 1.7 billion yuan [1] - The company engaged with Huazhong Futures to develop risk management strategies, leading to the establishment of a professional futures team and a strict hedging system [1][2] Group 3: Risk Management - Company X's hedging volume increased from approximately 18,000 tons in 2021 to 36,000 tons in 2023, demonstrating effective risk management through futures and options [2] - In response to market downturns, the company sold its existing inventory at market price to recover funds and mitigate further losses [3] Group 4: Derivative Tools Utilization - The company utilized options to hedge risks, converting inventory into option positions to avoid storage costs while generating premium income to offset previous losses [3][4] - Company X adopted a dual strategy of selling both put and call options to manage its positions effectively, thereby reducing holding costs and protecting against price fluctuations [4] Group 5: Future Plans - Looking ahead, Company X plans to expand its risk management toolbox by integrating futures, options, and basis trading, aiming to build a hedging alliance within the pulp industry [5] - The company seeks to enhance its risk management capabilities, transforming them into competitive advantages in the industry, and contributing to high-quality development in the pulp sector [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The port is experiencing concentrated arrivals, increasing the pressure on port inventory accumulation. The pattern of a weak port and a strong inland region is maintained, and the 01 contract still contains the expectation of seasonal winter maintenance in Iran, maintaining a relatively high futures premium. Inland coal - fired methanol centralized maintenance period has passed, with the start - up rate increasing in early September and factory inventories starting to bottom out and rise. Downstream demand remains relatively weak [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][32][33] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated) are presented in figures [34][35][37] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][44][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [48][54][56] Market Data Inland Market - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 445 yuan/ton (+0), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 698 yuan/ton (-18). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2063 yuan/ton (-18), with a basis of 291 yuan/ton (+6); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2080 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong Linyi is 2323 yuan/ton (-23), with a basis of 151 yuan/ton (+1); Henan is 2230 yuan/ton (+0), with a basis of 58 yuan/ton (+23); Hebei is 2265 yuan/ton (+25), with a basis of 153 yuan/ton (+48). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 333393 tons (+22600), and the northwest factory inventory is 214500 tons (+16500). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 216985 tons (+9615), and the northwest factory pending orders are 113300 tons (+8100) [1] Port Market - Taicang methanol is 2250 yuan/ton (-22), with a basis of - 122 yuan/ton (+1), CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (-4), and the East China import price difference is - 20 yuan/ton (+10). Changzhou methanol is 2445 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2265 yuan/ton (-20), with a basis of - 107 yuan/ton (+3). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1299250 tons (+223290), Jiangsu port inventory is 671500 tons (+124000), Zhejiang port inventory is 217500 tons (+58800), and Guangdong port inventory is 249000 tons (+31500). The downstream MTO start - up rate is 84.59% (+1.46%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The price difference of Lubei - Northwest - 280 is - 48 yuan/ton (+18), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 363 yuan/ton (-5), Taicang - Lunan - 250 is - 323 yuan/ton (+1); Lunan - Taicang - 100 is - 28 yuan/ton (-1); Guangdong - East China - 180 is - 165 yuan/ton (+2); East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 is - 155 yuan/ton (-22) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell for hedging at high prices. - Inter - period: Wait and see. - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of companies in the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig and egg industries, through the use of futures tools to manage price risks effectively [1][5]. Group 1: Shanxi Jinrun Food - Shanxi Jinrun Food processes one million pigs annually and has established a complete industrial chain from breeding to sales, but has faced challenges due to the volatility of pig prices [2][3]. - The company experienced significant price fluctuations, with pig prices dropping below 10 yuan/kg in 2021, rising above 20 yuan/kg in 2022, and then falling again in 2023, leading to unstable profits [2][3]. - In 2023, the company joined the "Qifeng Plan," which provided professional guidance, helping them improve their risk management mechanisms and experience in hedging [3][4]. - By participating in the "Qifeng Plan," Shanxi Jinrun Food learned to use futures contracts to hedge against price risks, successfully implementing a strategy to lock in profits and manage inventory risks [4][3]. - The company has established a cross-departmental futures decision-making group, enhancing communication and making futures hedging a regular operational tool [4]. Group 2: Wuhan Huludang - Wuhan Huludang, a chicken egg trading company, faced price volatility risks and sought new risk management strategies as the egg industry modernized [5][6]. - The company initially relied on spot trading but found it ineffective against price fluctuations, prompting them to explore futures tools after learning about the "Qifeng Plan" [5][6]. - In 2023, Wuhan Huludang participated in the "Qifeng Plan," completing six hedging operations that generated approximately 150,000 yuan in profits, partially offsetting losses from the spot market [6][7]. - The experience gained from these operations has significantly increased the company's confidence in using futures tools, leading to a gradual increase in their hedging ratio [6][7]. - The company plans to deepen its understanding of the futures market and promote risk management awareness among industry partners [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 27, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The market has basically digested the production restriction expectations for the military parade in North China. The pressure of steel over-seasonal inventory accumulation suppresses steel mill profits and the rebound space of steel prices, which in turn restricts the further upward movement of the cost side. The market shows a certain "desensitization" to positive factors and is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Price Forecast - Rebar 01 contract monthly price range: 3000 - 3300, current volatility: 15.97%, volatility percentile: 41.1% - Hot rolled coil 01 contract monthly price range: 3200 - 3500, current volatility: 15.81%, volatility percentile: 35.28% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished product inventory and concerns about steel price decline, short rebar or hot rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Sell call options to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if steel prices rise - RB2501: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3200 - 3250 - HC2501: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3350 - 3400 - RB2510C3300: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 20 - 30 [2] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and hopes to purchase according to orders, buy rebar or hot rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs in advance. Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if steel prices fall - RB2601: buy, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3100 - 3150 - HC2601: buy, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3250 - 3300 - RB2510P3000: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 20 - 30 [2] Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Export orders have slightly improved, military parade production restrictions, and coal mine supply events [5] Negative Factors - Steel shows over-seasonal inventory accumulation, raw material fundamentals weaken, and there is a large amount of warehouse receipts on the rebar 10 contract [5] Price Data Futures Closing Prices - Rebar 01 contract: 3172 on August 27, down 13 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week - Rebar 05 contract: 3214 on August 27, down 9 from the previous day and 31 from the previous week - Rebar 10 contract: 3111 on August 27, down 2 from the previous day and 21 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 01 contract: 3341 on August 27, down 16 from the previous day and 44 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 05 contract: 3348 on August 27, down 13 from the previous day and 34 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 10 contract: 3349 on August 27, down 18 from the previous day and 53 from the previous week [6] Spot Prices - Rebar aggregate price in China: 3337 on August 27, down 8 from the previous day and 1 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Shanghai: 3290 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Beijing: 3230 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Hangzhou: 3310 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Tianjin: 3260 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Shanghai: 3380 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Lecong: 3380 on August 27, down 20 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Shenyang: 3340 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [6] Other Data - Hot rolled coil overseas FOB and CFR prices, showing changes from August 20 to August 27 [7] - Rebar and hot rolled coil basis, monthly spread, volume-to-rebar spread, rebar-iron ore ratio, and rebar-coke ratio data, showing daily and weekly changes [8][9][12] - Seasonal data on basis, monthly spread, and profit for various steel products and raw materials, as well as cost and inventory data [13][20][32]

Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is crucial for both the economy and rural revitalization, but it faces challenges from the "pig cycle" and increasing risks, leading to a growing interest in futures and options as risk management tools [1] Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, pig prices are expected to fluctuate, with per-head farming profits narrowing to below 100 yuan, prompting farmers to utilize off-market options for risk management and improved capital efficiency [1] Project Process - In April 2025, tariffs on imports of soybeans, corn, and meat from the U.S. raised costs, leading to an increase in spot pig prices. A company, A, concerned about potential price declines, sought to lock in profits through a customized put option strategy [2] Execution Process - The enhanced put option strategy allows A to secure higher short positions when prices fall within a specified range, while also providing a mechanism to manage risks associated with price spikes. The strategy was designed to be flexible based on A's inventory levels, ultimately resulting in a profit of 82,000 yuan [3] Project Summary - The strategy effectively mitigated price decline risks, stabilizing production for A [4] - The use of options reduced the financial burden on A compared to traditional futures hedging, allowing for timely adjustments and retention of potential profits [4] - The innovation in off-market options enhances the alignment of hedging services with the needs of real enterprises, providing reliable financial support for stable operations [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].

Core Insights - The launch of pure benzene futures on July 8 has introduced new risk management dynamics to the aromatic industry chain, with strong participation from production and trading companies [1][2] Industry Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of pure benzene, with a production capacity of 32.34 million tons and an output of 25.13 million tons in 2024, accounting for 39% of global production. The apparent consumption is 29.26 million tons, representing 43% of global consumption [2] - Despite rapid capacity expansion, profit margins in the industry have been squeezed, with average production profits dropping by 64% year-on-year to 787 yuan per ton [2] Market Participation - The introduction of pure benzene futures has led to increased interest from companies in risk management tools, with firms exploring various application models based on their specific needs [2][3] - Companies like 富海集团 and 江苏利士德化工有限公司 are actively participating in futures trading, utilizing strategies such as basis trading and arbitrage [3] Trading Activity - As of August 19, pure benzene futures have recorded a trading volume of 518,900 contracts and a total transaction value of 96.52 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 16,700 contracts [4] - The liquidity of the futures market is expected to improve as more companies engage in hedging and trading activities [5][6] Risk Management Benefits - The availability of pure benzene futures allows companies to manage inventory and respond proactively to market changes, reducing reliance on indirect hedging through other products [4] - Companies are increasingly shifting from high-risk paper markets to standardized and regulated futures markets for better security and transparency [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The development of risk management in the industry has evolved through multiple stages, with a focus on enhancing comprehensive operational capabilities, innovative business models, and refined management practices to secure the future of enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Risk Management Development Stages - Before 2010, the industry faced a futures hedging opportunity period with low hedging ratios and favorable basis safety margins - From 2010 to 2020, the industry entered a futures hedging challenge period, where the hedging ratio increased but basis safety margins deteriorated, making hedging more difficult - Post-2020 marks the development period of risk management tools, characterized by complex industry cycles and external environments, where poor basis safety margins became the norm and off-exchange options tools diversified [1] Changes in Commodity Trading - The transition in bulk commodity trading has shifted from spot trading to basis trading and rights-inclusive trading - The integration of futures and spot trading has been widely promoted, enhancing risk management concepts [1] New Profit Sources in the Industry - In the new era, industry profits are no longer solely derived from processing and price differences but also from profits generated through hedging/basis, optimizing business structures, risk management services, and premiums obtained through strategies and tools [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by feed companies, particularly in managing raw material inventory during a period of falling prices due to a bumper harvest cycle, and highlights the strategic use of futures hedging to mitigate risks and enhance profitability [2][10]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Since the second half of 2023, corn prices have declined significantly due to the bumper harvest of staple crops, leading to a rapid narrowing of basis [2]. - Feed companies, accustomed to stockpiling, are experiencing a dilemma: the value of corn inventory established at high prices has plummeted, while the profits from downstream livestock operations are under pressure, squeezing operational margins [2][11]. - Companies like A Enterprise, which procures nearly 200,000 tons of raw materials annually, are struggling with high production costs from previously locked-in prices, even as downstream profits improve [4][11]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - A Enterprise has signed contracts for 2,000 tons of corn, locking in prices despite the risk of price declines before the inventory is received [5]. - The company employs a futures hedging strategy to manage price risks, establishing short positions in the corn futures market to offset exposure [6][10]. - By April 2025, the basis for the corn futures contract had expanded, allowing A Enterprise to benefit from the hedging strategy, ultimately saving over 300,000 yuan in procurement costs [8][10]. Group 3: Strategic Upgrades - The raw material inventory hedging strategy not only addresses risk management needs but also supports stable operations and business model upgrades for A Enterprise [10]. - The hedging approach allows A Enterprise to build sufficient inventory based on production plans, mitigating the risks associated with price fluctuations and inventory management [11]. - By transforming absolute price risks into relative basis risks, A Enterprise can strategically increase trade inventory and capitalize on favorable market conditions, thereby enhancing operational profits and establishing a competitive edge in the industry [12].