Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market's mainstream expectation is that the pure benzene market will marginally improve, but remain weak in the second half of the year. With PX being strong, there is still room for BZ valuation to decline, and the overall outlook is bearish. However, from a long - term allocation perspective, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, there may be opportunities for light - position trial long trades [2] - The supply reduction of pure benzene is difficult, and the driving force for its valuation repair usually comes from the demand side. The weighted demand growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be around 5 - 5.5%. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the second half of the year is slightly better than that in the first half, but it will still be in a balanced to slightly inventory - building state if there are no unexpected factors in terminal demand [19][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Futures Contract Points Interpretation - Pure benzene futures will be listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange starting from 09:00 on July 8, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, BZ2606. The daily price limit is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and 14% of the listing benchmark price on the first trading day. The trading margin is 8% of the contract value. The trading fee is 0.01% of the transaction amount, and 0.005% for hedging transactions [11] - The trading unit of pure benzene futures is 30 tons per lot, much larger than that of styrene futures. The ratio for hedging with styrene can be set at 1:6 or 1:7.5. The last trading day and the last delivery day are the same as those of styrene contracts. The main contracts of pure benzene are expected to change monthly continuously, different from PX's 1/5/9 main contracts, and attention should be paid to the liquidity of far - month contracts [12] 2. Key Points of Pure Benzene Delivery Rules - The delivery quality standard of pure benzene futures announced by DCE is consistent with the current national standard (GB/T 3405 - 2025), and coal - based hydrogenated benzene can also participate in delivery. The crystallization point requirement is ≥5.45°C [16] - The delivery area has been expanded from East China to South China, North China, and Northeast China. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are the benchmark delivery areas, Shandong has a discount of 50 yuan per ton, and South China has no premium or discount [17] - Pure benzene standard warehouse receipts are cancelled monthly to align with the characteristics of the spot market [18] 3. Strategy Suggestions for the First Listing Day of Pure Benzene - **Absolute Price Dimension**: Based on the Singapore Exchange's far - month contracts, the price of pure benzene in East China in March next year is estimated to be around 5900 yuan per ton. Calculated by the current spot price in East China plus the far - month paper - cargo premium structure, the far - month price may be around 6000 - 6100 yuan per ton, but there may be a discount between the futures price and the East China price. In the long - term, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, light - position trial long trades can be considered [2][22] - **Internal - External Arbitrage**: Considering the different delivery systems of the Singapore Exchange (cash settlement) and DCE (physical delivery), opportunities for long Singapore Exchange pure benzene and short DCE pure benzene can be explored [2][23] - **Cross - Variety Arbitrage in the Industrial Chain**: The median spread corresponding to the break - even point of non - integrated styrene plants is 1300 yuan per ton. Without a squeeze, the 2603 EB - BZ spread may range from 1100 to 1500 yuan per ton [3][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 7, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 180.4 yuan/ton on June 30, - 180.4 yuan/ton from July 1 - 3, and - 178.4 yuan/ton on July 4. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The basis data is presented in a chart, showing the relationship between the basis, spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil, and the futures closing price of INE crude oil [6] - **Fuel Oil**: The basis data is presented in a chart, showing the relationship between the basis, FOB Singapore fuel oil spot price, and the futures closing price of fuel oil [7] - **Crude Oil/Asphalt Ratio**: On July 4, 2025, the ratio was 0.1407; on July 3, it was 0.1393; on July 2, it was 0.1411; on July 1, it was 0.1395; on June 30, it was 0.1394 [9] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc., the basis data from June 30 to July 4, 2025, is provided. For example, the basis of natural rubber was - 35 yuan/ton on June 30, - 145 yuan/ton on July 1, - 125 yuan/ton on July 2, - 65 yuan/ton on July 3, and 45 yuan/ton on July 4 [10] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for various chemicals are given. For example, for natural rubber, the 5 - 1 month spread was 70 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 860 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 month spread was - 930 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2362 yuan/ton on June 30 and 2389 yuan/ton on July 4 [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal is presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton on June 30, 97 yuan/ton on July 1, 105 yuan/ton on July 2, 94 yuan/ton on July 3, and 108 yuan/ton on July 4 [15] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month) and those of iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 5 yuan/ton [15] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.19 on June 30 and July 4 [15] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market is presented. For example, the basis of copper was 200 yuan/ton on June 30, - 240 yuan/ton on July 1, 570 yuan/ton on July 2, 580 yuan/ton on July 3, and 790 yuan/ton on July 4 [24] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: On July 4, 2025, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 95.35, - 3.40, - 21.64, - 24.63, - 189.09, and 22.00 respectively. The Shanghai - London ratios were 8.07, 7.93, 8.13, 8.37, 7.95, and 7.94 respectively. The CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - losses are also provided [31] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of soybeans (No.1 and No.2), soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. is presented. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 61 yuan/ton on June 30 and July 3, - 71 yuan/ton on July 2, - 47 yuan/ton on July 1, and - 31 yuan/ton on July 4 [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 24 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.75 on July 3 and July 4 [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures is presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 50.28 on June 30, 56.76 on July 1, 49.48 on July 2, 50.07 on July 3, and 46.20 on July 4 [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next - month - current - month, current - quarter - current - month, next - quarter - current - month, etc.) are given. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 19.4 [48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PVC futures market is showing strength, with the main contract trading at 4924.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.76% increase [1] - PVC powder exports have been a bright spot in demand, with cumulative exports from January to May 2025 reaching 1.6985 million tons, a 56.07% increase compared to 1.0883 million tons during the same period last year [2] - As of the end of June, the domestic PVC downstream comprehensive operating rate is at 42.78%, down 3.37 percentage points from early June and down 10.54 percentage points year-on-year, marking the lowest point since mid-March 2025 [2] Group 2 - On the supply side, there has been a slight increase in domestic PVC maintenance this week, with a planned maintenance by Henan Yuhang, leading to a slight decrease in supply; however, overall supply remains high with significant new production plans expected in the future [3] - Demand continues to weaken as the domestic and international markets enter a demand off-season, with some domestic downstream operations affected by the rainy season [3] - The cost side is supported by reduced ethylene imports, while the situation in Inner Mongolia regarding electricity restrictions for calcium carbide needs to be monitored, which is expected to support PVC bottom prices [3] Group 3 - The operational strategy suggests a fluctuating market, with basic fundamentals still under pressure as the downstream enters the off-season; however, the gradual changes in basis and monthly spread are narrowing the space for arbitrage and hedging [4] - The ongoing delay of India's BIS certification is expected to contribute to the continued fluctuation of PVC prices [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - July 1, 2025: Limited Supply Bullishness, Sideways Market Movement" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - **Soybean Meal**: Futures prices showed mixed movements, with different contracts having varying closing prices and changes. Spot basis prices decreased in most regions. For example, the 01 contract of soybean meal closed at 3003 with a gain of 4, and the basis in Tianjin remained at -40. [4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Futures prices generally increased, and spot basis prices also showed some improvements. For instance, the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2320 with a gain of 6, and the basis in Guangdong increased by 16 to -116. [4] Spread Analysis - **Monthly Spreads**: Soybean meal monthly spreads had a mixed performance, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. Rapeseed meal monthly spreads showed a phased rebound, mainly influenced by the single - sided movement of the market. [4] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the spreads between soybean meal and sunflower meal, as well as rapeseed meal and sunflower meal, also changed. [4] Market Trends - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market showed a sideways - down trend as the report lacked bullish drivers, and the market focused on the relatively loose supply - demand situation. [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market moved sideways with limited changes, while the rapeseed meal market rebounded. [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US**: The new - crop balance sheet of US soybeans improved due to the boost from biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending June 15, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. The old - crop export inspection volume in the week ending June 12 was 21.58 tons, and the soybean crushing data in May was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume at 192.829 million bushels, a 1.37% increase from the previous month. [5] - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress was relatively slow and at a low level compared to historical periods. The recent selling progress continued to slow down, and price pressure emerged. The recent crushing volume decreased, and although the April crushing volume was good, the crushing profit was relatively low. It is expected that Brazil may further increase exports. [5] - **Argentina**: The domestic crushing volume may improve, and soybean exports may increase as the prices of terminal products have gradually stabilized. [5] Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot market remained relatively loose, with the oil refinery operating rate increasing, sufficient supply, and gradually accumulating inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 248.78 tons, the operating rate was 69.93%, the soybean inventory was 665.87 tons, a 4.37% increase from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 69.16 tons, a 35.9% increase from the previous week. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The demand for rapeseed meal gradually weakened, and although the supply was sufficient, the demand decline and high - level granular rapeseed meal still posed supply pressure. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 4.3 tons, the operating rate was 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory was 18.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous week. [6] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but the market lacked clear information. There were still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market gradually stabilized, macro - level disturbances decreased. Due to China's high demand for the US soybean market in the long - term, the price was not likely to drop significantly in the short term. [7] Group 5: Logical Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market showed some pressure, but after the previous bearish factors were gradually reflected, the market rebounded. The overall bullish effect of the report was limited, and the recent upward trend slowed down. Although there were short - term bearish factors, the deep - decline space was limited as the price had dropped significantly. [7] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market moved sideways. The demand support was weak, and the upward space was limited due to the relatively high inventory level. [7] - **Spreads**: The monthly spreads of soybean meal had some support, and the monthly spreads of rapeseed meal were relatively strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen in the future. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to continue to make a small - scale long - position layout for the far - month contracts of soybean meal. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread. [8] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods varied. For example, the crushing profit of soybeans from Argentina in October was - 72.23, showing a decrease compared to the previous day. [9]

跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/27 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 80 -80 -290 -480 理论价差 496 890 1293 1696 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 65 -30 -100 -195 理论价差 214 334 454 574 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 0 -85 -190 -295 理论价差 213 327 442 556 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 60 65 60 40 理论价差 211 318 424 531 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 2230 2340 2440 2690 锡 5-1 价差 -660 理论价差 5528 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/27 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -115 -35 理论价差 326 775 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -95 -30 理论价差 143 273 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The current TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. The scrap copper enterprises are affected by the implementation of the reverse invoicing policy and generally believe that the supply of goods may become tight in the future. However, the demand side is not very optimistic. Although the supply and demand are slightly weak, the macro factors are relatively changeable, and the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. Therefore, it is still recommended to mainly use buy hedging on dips, with the buying range of the Cu2507 contract suggested to be between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,810 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,600 yuan/ton and closed at 78,720 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on June 25, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,530 - 78,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of flat to 60 yuan/ton for the 2507 contract and an average premium of 30 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The intraday spread between nearby contracts narrowed to 130 - 150 yuan. The market supply of goods tightened, and the premium stabilized. It is expected that the premium will remain stable today, but some tight varieties may rise [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical aspects: Trump said that he thought the war between Israel and Iran was over, but the conflict might break out again, perhaps soon, and he would not give up sanctions on Iran. He did not think Iran would restart its nuclear program. The US will hold talks with Iran next week, and he did not think the nuclear deal was necessary. Domestically, the Iranian defense minister arrived in China to attend the SCO defense ministers' meeting [3] Mining End - New World Resources' land reclamation plan for its Antler copper mine project in Arizona has been approved. With the pending state-level permits, the company can start construction on the private land that constitutes most of the Antler project. The Arizona Mining Supervision Bureau approved the plan and accepted a total of A$9.01 million in relevant financial guarantees, which must be finalized within 60 days. New World, which is in a takeover bidding war, plans to meet this requirement through a guaranteed bond arranged with its preferred insurance company. The Antler project is located in a remote area in northern Arizona and is planned as an underground mining operation. Magna Mining received C$500,000 from the Ontario government for the development of its Crean Hill nickel-copper-platinum group metal mine in the brownfield project. Magna said the funds will be used for metallurgical research on improving the recovery of precious metals in the Crean Hill contact zone and footwall mineralization, which is part of its 2024 surface bulk sampling plan. In September last year, the company released the latest economic evaluation of the project, based on more than 30 million tons of mineral resources (including 14.5 million tons of high-grade underground resources) that meet the NI 43 - 101 standard, calculating a post-tax net present value (8% discount rate) of C$194.1 million and a mine life of 13 years [4] Smelting and Import - In April, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons, while in March, there was a surplus of 12,000 tons. In the first four months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 233,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 236,000 tons in the same period last year. In April, the global refined copper production was 2.37 million tons, and the consumption was 2.42 million tons [5] Consumption - Recently, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 75.82%, a month-on-month increase of 2.6 percentage points but lower than expected. The mid-year production plan put pressure on processing fees, and the resumption of production by some enterprises drove the output to rebound. The raw material inventory decreased to 34,650 tons (-3.08%), while the finished product inventory increased to 68,350 tons (+7.38%), reflecting weak terminal demand. It is expected that the operating rate will slightly rise to 76.23% next week, and the high copper price may continue to suppress the improvement of demand. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased to 73.26% (a month-on-month decrease of 3.04 percentage points), mainly due to weak terminal demand and the high copper price suppressing procurement. The finished product inventory decreased to 21,190 tons (-5.02%), and the raw material inventory increased to 17,360 tons (+1.58%). It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decrease to 71.64% next week, and the demand decline in the construction industry is particularly significant [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,200 tons to 94,675 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21,470 tons. On June 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 129,600 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products on different dates from June 19 to June 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [2][10][15]. Summaries by Directory Power Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis of power coal on June 25, 2025, was - 184.4 yuan/ton, showing a slight change compared with previous days [2]. - **Inter - period Data**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 [2]. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis Data**: For crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented on different dates. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on June 25, 2025, was - 32.94 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1527 [9]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: The basis of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP showed different values on different dates. For example, the basis of natural rubber on June 25, 2025, was - 20 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided for various chemical products [10]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, and PP - 3*methanol are presented on different dates [10]. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: The basis of products like rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed fluctuations from June 19 to June 25, 2025. For example, the basis of rebar on June 25, 2025, was 74.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of coke was - 16.5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal, as well as the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil, are presented on different dates [15]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin showed different values on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on June 25, 2025, was - 50 yuan/ton [23]. - **LME - related Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided on June 25, 2025 [30]. London Market - **Basis Data**: LME basis data is presented, along with Shanghai - London ratio and import profit and loss data [32][33][34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: The basis of products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn showed different values on different dates [40]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads for various agricultural products are given [38][40]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety ratios and spreads such as soybean 1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, and soybean meal - rapeseed meal are presented on different dates [38]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different values on different dates from June 19 to June 25, 2025. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on June 25, 2025, was 37.27 [48]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at a high level, and attention should be paid to LME delivery risks. The borrow strategy for copper can continue to be held, and options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. - Alumina supply and demand are expected to return to an excess situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely. After the correction, attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread for arbitrage, and options should be on the sidelines [19][20][22]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between -200 and -1000 yuan, and options should be on the sidelines [26][28][29]. - Zinc prices may decline as inventories accumulate. Consider shorting distant - month contracts on rallies, and be wary of macro - risks. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [33][34][36]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [39][40]. - Nickel prices are oscillating downward. Consider selling call options, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [44][46][48]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be weak and decline. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines [52][53][56]. - Tin prices face pressure at the 60 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin mine production, and options should be on the sidelines [59][60][61]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand remain in an excess pattern. Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options and Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [66][67]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to decline. Short - term short positions can be considered, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [70][72][73]. - Lithium carbonate prices have limited upside. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies and do not bottom - fish. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [76][77][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, up 0.14%, with the Shanghai Copper Index reducing positions by 5,943 lots to 525,200 lots [2]. - Spot: Spot premiums declined in Shanghai, Guangdong, and North China [2]. - **Important Information** - In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, down 9.55% month - on - month and 6.53% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 292,700 tons, down 2.49% month - on - month and 15.64% year - on - year [3][4]. - As of June 23, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to LME delivery risks [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [8]. - Options: On the sidelines [9] Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,906 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 4,632 lots to 430,300 lots [10]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Related Information** - In June, India had a 30,000 - ton alumina transaction at an FOB price of 366 dollars/ton. - It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will reach 9.35 - 9.4 billion tons by the end of the month [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies [14]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [15]. - Options: On the sidelines [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 50 yuan/ton to 20,365 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 18,755 lots to 665,800 lots [17]. - Spot: Spot prices in East, South, and Central China declined [17]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 92.92GW, up 388.03% year - on - year [18]. - On June 23, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 462,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from last Thursday [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to downstream inventory replenishment after the price correction [22]. - Arbitrage: Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread [22]. - Options: On the sidelines [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 19,380 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 130 lots to 9,714 lots [24]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions remained flat [24]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also increased significantly [24]. - On June 23, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 19 tons [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference is between -200 and -1000 yuan [29]. - Options: On the sidelines [29] Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.18% to 21,780 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index increasing positions by 258 lots to 259,600 lots [31]. - Spot: Spot prices in Shanghai were stable, and the premium was stable, but downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,800 tons, down 1,000 tons from June 16 and 1,800 tons from June 19 [32]. - Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain over the weekend, and transportation was restricted [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies for distant - month contracts, be wary of macro - risks [34]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [36]. - Options: On the sidelines [36] Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.39% to 16,930 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index reducing positions by 3,480 lots to 81,000 lots [35]. - Spot: The average price of SMM 1 lead remained flat, and the supply of recycled lead was scarce [38]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot social inventory was 55,700 tons, down about 700 tons from June 16 [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips [40]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [40]. - Options: On the sidelines [40] Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2507 fell 1,340 to 117,440 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 11,384 lots [42]. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased, while that of Russian nickel remained flat [42]. - **Related Information** - PT Gag Nickel will resume operations in West Papua. The Qing Shan Industrial Park in Indonesia will strengthen environmental compliance management [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is oscillating downward, pay attention to macro and nickel ore changes [46]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [47]. - Options: Consider selling call options [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract fell 145 to 12,390 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 25,926 lots [50]. - Spot: Cold - rolled and hot - rolled prices are given [50]. - **Related Information** - Indonesia's first professional anti - corrosion stainless - steel factory was put into operation [51]. - In May, China's stainless - steel imports from Indonesia decreased, and exports to Vietnam increased [51]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is expected to decline weakly [53]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [56]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract closed at 263,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or 0.05%, with positions decreasing by 524 lots to 49,660 lots [55]. - Spot: Spot prices declined, and the market trading was light [57]. - **Related Information** - In April 2025, the global semiconductor sales were 57 billion dollars, up 2.5% from March 2025 and 22.7% from April 2024 [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to the resumption of tin mine production [60]. - Options: On the sidelines [61] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7,420 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [62]. - Spot: Downstream procurement improved, and spot prices were stable [63]. - **Related Information** - In May, the total social electricity consumption was 809.6 billion kWh, up 4.4% year - on - year [64]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds [67]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [67]. - Arbitrage: Participate in the Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [67] Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract fell 3.33% to 30,615 yuan/ton [68]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [68]. - **Related Information** - From January to May 2025, China's new - installed photovoltaic capacity was 197.85GW, up 150% year - on - year [69]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions [73]. - Options: On the sidelines [73]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract fell 460 to 59,120 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 9,340 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreasing by 1,014 to 26,779 tons [74]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [74]. - **Related Information** - In May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 605,000 tons, slightly down 2.9% month - on - month [75]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies, do not bottom - fish [77]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [78]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on various futures products, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis Charts**: There are basis charts for crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt. The basis of crude oil is related to the spot price of China Shengli and the futures closing price of INE crude oil; the basis of fuel oil is related to the FOB Singapore spot price and the futures closing price of fuel oil [6][7][9] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of natural rubber was 50 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 256 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 30 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2536 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of rebar was 78.0 yuan/ton [15] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month), iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given [15] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.26 [15] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of copper was 500 yuan/ton [23] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: On June 20, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was 274.99 [30] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 179 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products such as soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 13 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.77 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of CSI 300 was 73.04 [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for different periods (such as next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) are given [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alloy market is experiencing low - level fluctuations due to increased disturbances on the cost side [1] - For ferrosilicon, the supply is expected to remain low, demand has short - term resilience, and energy cost increases have boosted sentiment, leading to short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - For silicomanganese, supply has a slight recovery, demand weakens moderately, and supply - side news disturbances cause low - level fluctuations [4] - The trading strategies include a low - level fluctuation outlook for single - side trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options on rallies for options trading [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: After the previous alloy plant overhauls ended, production increased slightly. Given the current profit level, the resumption of production is expected to be limited, and overall supply will likely stay low. Downstream steel demand has entered the off - season, but the decline is not significant. Steel mill blast furnaces had a slight resumption this week, so demand has short - term resilience. Recently, coal prices stabilized, and international crude oil prices rose significantly, increasing energy costs. As an energy - intensive product, ferrosilicon sentiment was boosted, resulting in short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - **Silicomanganese**: Supply also increased slightly, with the absolute value remaining low. The demand for rebar has entered the off - season, and the weakening is mild according to micro - data. There were multiple news disturbances on the manganese ore supply side, but data shows the supply is currently normal. Due to the low valuation of manganese ore prices, sentiment is prone to repeated disturbances, causing silicomanganese to fluctuate at a low level [4] Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Low - level fluctuations [5] - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [5] - **Options**: Sell call options on rallies [5] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: According to Mysteel data, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 242.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) was 20,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70% of the total demand) was 123,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [8] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 32.69%, a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The weekly ferrosilicon output was 97,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,800 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China was 36.39%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09%. The weekly silicomanganese output (99% of the supply) was 176,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons [9] - **Inventory**: In the week of June 20, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 68,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,900 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 205,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [10] Spot Price - Basis - The content provides price and basis data for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi from 2021 to 2025 [13] Double - Silicon Enterprise Production Situation - The content shows the weekly output and operating rate data of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [17] Steel Mill Production Situation - The content presents data on the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, and social steel inventory of 247 steel mills from 2020 to 2025 [21] Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese was 5,605 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 125 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 56.5%. The production cost of Ningxia silicomanganese was 5,689 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 259 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 20.9%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [22] Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon was 5,471 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 371 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 36.6%. The production cost of Ningxia ferrosilicon was 5,427 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 327 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 18.4%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [30] Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price - The content provides price data for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 to 2025 [37][40] Hebei Representative Steel Mill Double - Silicon Steel Bidding Price - The content shows the monthly procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 from 2020 to 2025 [44] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - The content presents data on the cumulative and monthly output of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2019 to 2025 [50][52][53] Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - The content shows data on the monthly net import of Chinese manganese ore and the monthly net export of Chinese ferrosilicon from 2012 to 2025 [57] Magnesium Metal Demand - The content provides price data for Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and cumulative production data for Shaanxi Yulin magnesium metal from 2013 to 2025 [58] Alloy Plant vs. Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - The content shows data on alloy plant ferrosilicon inventory, inventory by region, steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days, and inventory available days by region from 2021 to 2025 [61] Alloy Plant, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - The content shows data on steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, inventory available days by region, Tianjin Port manganese ore total inventory, and alloy plant silicomanganese inventory from 2021 to 2025 [64]