Core Viewpoint - The market appears to be indifferent to Trump's latest tariff threats, reflecting a belief that these threats may not be implemented or will have minimal impact on the economy and corporate profits [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Trump's announcement to delay tariff negotiations until August 1 and impose 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean products, as well as up to 40% on products from 12 other countries, resulted in a modest decline of 0.2% in the S&P 500 index [1]. - The South Korean stock market saw a significant increase, with the Seoul Composite Index rising by 1.5% at one point, indicating a positive market sentiment despite the tariff threats [1]. - Analysts suggest that the market's calm response indicates a belief that the tariffs will not have a substantial effect on economic growth or corporate profits [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors seem to be ignoring the latest tariff announcements, interpreting them as a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive stance on tariff levels [4]. - The market has adapted to the unpredictable nature of tariff policies, with significant structural misalignments observed, as evidenced by the stability of U.S. inflation swap prices despite ongoing tariff threats [4]. - The prevailing sentiment is that the tariff threats are not taken seriously, leading to potential risks if Trump adopts a more aggressive stance unexpectedly [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The annual central bank meeting in Portugal highlighted the cautious stance of major central bank leaders in response to the economic impact of Trump's policies, with a notable signal from Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Powell indicated that without Trump's tariffs, the Fed might have already lowered interest rates, emphasizing that inflation trends are a key consideration in rate decisions [1]. - The Fed's recent "dot plot" suggested two potential rate cuts by the end of 2025, with Powell previously stating the Fed was in a good position to remain observant [2]. - Powell's recent comments suggest a shift from the previously held view of considering rate cuts only in the fall [1]. Group 2: Global Central Bank Perspectives - ECB President Lagarde noted that while the Eurozone's inflation reached the 2% target in June, challenges remain, and geopolitical risks pose dual threats [4]. - The Bank of England's Bailey stated that monetary policy remains restrictive, with signs of a mild slowdown in the UK economy potentially influencing future decisions [6]. - The Bank of Japan's Ueda maintained a wait-and-see approach, indicating no immediate plans to raise borrowing costs [6][7]. - The Bank of Korea's Lee expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on economic growth rather than inflation, suggesting a careful approach to rate cuts [8]. Group 3: Dollar and Trade Policy - Central bank leaders agreed that the dollar's status as the preferred global reserve currency is unlikely to change in the short term, amidst ongoing trade negotiations by the Trump administration [9]. - Trump announced intentions to implement new tariffs by July 9, emphasizing a strict stance on trade relations with various countries [10].

当被问及市场是否太早期待7月降息时，鲍威尔回应："我现在无法做出判断，一切取决于数据表 现。"根据芝商所FedWatch工具，交易员预计美联储在7月会议上继续按兵不动的概率超过76%。 鲍威尔强调，美联储将"逐会而定"，"我不会把任何一次会议排除，也不会承诺某次会议一定会行动， 一切都取决于数据如何演变。" 美联储坚持维持当前利率水平，遭到特朗普和其团队的猛烈抨击。特朗普上周公开批评鲍威尔"糟糕透 顶"，甚至称他为"智力平平的人"。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔周二在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行论坛上表示，如果不是总统 特朗普今年早些时候推出的加征进口商品关税计划，美联储本应已经放松货币政策。 当被问及若特朗普没有宣布征收更高关税，美联储是否会在今年再次降息时，鲍威尔坦言："我认为是 的。实际上，当我们看到关税规模时，我们就暂停了行动，几乎所有针对美国的通胀预期都因此明显上 升。" 这一坦率言论正值美联储在强烈的白宫压力下维持观望姿态，尽管美国经济放缓迹象渐显。上月，美联 储再次维持联邦基金利率在4.25%至4.5%区间不变，自去年12月以来一直未有变动。 根据最新的"点阵图"显示，美联储联邦公开市场委 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in market dynamics due to Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, which have disrupted initial predictions for the year, leading to poor performance of previously favored assets like the US dollar and US stocks, while European markets and emerging markets have emerged as unexpected winners [1][2][13] Group 2 - The US dollar has experienced its worst start to the year since 2005, contrary to expectations that Trump's policies would strengthen it due to anticipated inflation and reduced likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a dramatic decline followed by a rapid recovery, with investor sentiment shifting significantly after Trump's decision to pause some tariffs, leading to a new historical high for the index [6][13] Group 3 - European stocks have outperformed US stocks, with the Stoxx 600 index beating the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points as of June 27, marking the best relative performance since 2016 [13] - Emerging markets have finally broken a trend of underperformance against US stocks, with a wealth increase of $1.8 trillion for shareholders in 2025, reaching a record market capitalization of $29 trillion [14] Group 4 - The Japanese yen has rebounded significantly against the dollar, with a nearly 9% decline in the dollar/yen exchange rate, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [8][11] - Global bond markets are experiencing increased differentiation, with short-term government bonds performing well due to anticipated rate cuts, while long-term bonds face pressure from rising government debt [12]

Group 1: Conference Overview - The CITIC Futures 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Conference was held on June 25, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Riding the Wind and Breaking the Waves" [1] - The conference featured one main forum and ten sub-forums, covering macroeconomics, equity, bonds, commodities, exchange rates, asset management, OTC derivatives, and overseas markets [1] Group 2: Keynote Speeches - CITIC Futures Chairman Dou Changhong emphasized the company's commitment to high-quality industrial services and the globalization of futures business [2] - Fudan University Professor Shen Guobing discussed the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Sino-U.S. trade, highlighting the challenges of trade fragmentation, geopolitical conflicts, and climate crises [3] - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, noted that U.S. stocks are in a high valuation phase, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are attracting significant foreign investment [4] Group 3: Market Outlooks - CITIC Futures Vice President Zeng Ning provided an outlook on the macro and commodity markets, indicating that the real estate sector will continue to drag down commodity demand for 1-2 years [5] - The Financial Forum discussed the shift from tariff-driven to dollar-driven macro themes, with a focus on structural allocation in A-shares [6] - The Nonferrous Forum highlighted the influence of U.S. trade policies on the market, with basic metals expected to remain strong despite macro uncertainties [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The Agricultural Forum indicated that many agricultural products are facing price declines due to high supply, with potential supply contractions in the future [9] - The Black Forum discussed the cyclical downturn in construction steel demand, while the coal and coke markets face long-term pressure [10] - The Energy Transition Forum addressed the oversupply pressures in both traditional and new energy sectors, with coal and natural gas markets expected to face challenges [11][12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The Asset Management Forum explored the innovative use of derivatives in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of risk management tools [15] - The Chemical Forum discussed the relationship between refined oil and chemical products, with a focus on market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [14] Group 6: Conclusion - The conference successfully provided a platform for sharing insights and strategies, reinforcing CITIC Futures' commitment to compliance, integrity, professionalism, and responsibility in the industry [16]

智通财经6月25日电，美国商务部周二发布报告显示，第一季度流入美国的外国直接投资从2024年第四 季度的799亿美元大幅下降至528亿美元。经济学家警告称，特朗普关税政策带来的极端不确定性可能会 使企业的投资决策陷入瘫痪，并拖累经济增长。特朗普曾辩称，他的关税政策会促使企业掀起投资热 潮。 美国一季度外资流入大幅下降 ...

6月24日，中信期货2025年中策略会在上海浦东召开。本次策略会以"御风破浪，笃行致远"为主 题，会期两天，共设置1个主论坛及10个分论坛，以多元化视角对下半年宏观、权益、债券、大宗商 品、汇率、资产管理、场外衍生品、海外市场等内容进行深入思考和展望。策略会期间，来自产业、金 融以及其他行业的投资者共聚现场，共享本次投资交流的盛宴。 "今年上半年，全球经贸格局面临深刻变革，在全球价值链深度重构与地缘政治博弈叠加的变局周 期，寻求稳定发展十分重要。"中信期货董事长窦长宏在主论坛上致辞表示，在国际贸易环境波动与海 外政策不确定性背景下，中国经济以战略定力锚定高质量发展。在政策组合拳支撑下，出口彰显韧性， 内需提振政策逐步落地，资本市场与房地产支持政策频繁出台，全面支持中国经济基本面的稳中向好。 复旦大学世界经济研究所副所长、经济学院教授沈国兵在主论坛上发表了关于《特朗普关税政策对 中美经贸影响及应对》的主题演讲。他认为，中美当前面临的世界经济新形势复杂多变，充满着不确定 性。全球经济面临"贸易碎片化、地缘冲突、气候危机"三重挑战，而多边合作与包容性增长是避免全 球"失序分化"的关键。 沈国兵在会上指出，从海外来看 ...

黄金周四（6月19日）早盘上涨3388附近后受阻转跌，欧盘前最低跌至3347附近，欧盘震荡上涨至3379，美盘金价保持在3360-3375区间震荡，日线收出一根 十字阴线。 一、基本面 1、美联储鹰派立场压制金价 二、技术面 3、特朗普关税政策的双重影响 鲍威尔指出关税成本将转嫁消费者，推高商品价格和通胀，黄金作为抗通胀资产吸引力上升。若美联储因通胀推迟降息，高利率环境可能继续压制金价，形 成多空博弈。 1、日线级别：周四的黄金市场依旧延续着震荡的主旋律。黄金先是果断跌破了周二与周三构筑的震荡区间下沿，同时一举下破10日均线，释放出明显的下 行信号，令市场空头情绪一度高涨。然而，当金价触及20日均线这一关键支撑位时，多头力量迅速集结，展开顽强反击，成功企稳并强势反弹，最终在日线 收出十字阴线，预示着短期内黄金市场仍将在震荡格局中徘徊，等待新的驱动因素打破僵局。 整体上，后市重点关注美联储货币政策走向、特朗普关税实施效果、以伊冲突演变及美国介入可能性。关注E3与伊朗的日内瓦会谈进展，若谈判无果，地 缘避险需求可能继续支撑金价；若美联储降息预期进一步降温，金价或承压下探。 从均线系统的视角深入剖析，当前5日均线已 ...

宏观经济点评 2025 年 06 月 19 日 美联储内部的降息分歧有所扩大 宏观研究团队 ——6 月 FOMC 会议点评 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122110044 事件：美联储于北京时间 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点发布 6 月 FOMC 会议声明，宣布保 持利率水平不变。 声明及发布会要点 1. 美联储宣布维持利率水平在 4.25%-4.5%区间。缩表方面，将继续按照 3 月 FOMC 会议上的原定计划执行。 2. 再次维持利率水平不变，但强调不确定性略有减弱。在声明中，美联储的措 辞同 5 月份相比变化不多，即认为美国经济继续稳步扩张，经济前景的不确定性 有所减弱，但仍然居高不下，对应特朗普关税政策波动趋于平缓。总的看，美联 储的态度与 5 月相比并没有发生改变，仍是"边走边看"模式，具体行动还需要 等待关税对美国经济的影响显现出来。 3. 下调经济预测、上调通胀预测，点阵图显示 2025 可能有 50bp 降息。美联储 在此次会议下调 2025-2027 年 ...

随着美联储官员发出延长维持利率不变的信号，投资者和经济学家本周将从美联储主席鲍威尔身上寻找 线索，了解哪些因素可能最终促使该央行采取行动，以及何时采取行动。 如果连续四次会议都没有降息，可能会引发美国总统特朗普的再次抨击。但政策制定者们已经明确表 示：在采取行动之前，他们需要白宫解决关税、移民和税收方面的重大问号。以色列对伊朗核基地的袭 击也给全球经济带来了另一个不确定因素。 与此同时，美国经济虽然在缓慢降温，但总体上是健康的，因此几乎没有人期待美国会很快采取利率行 动。根据期货合约的定价，投资者押注美联储最早要到9月份才会降息。 Principal Asset Management的首席全球策略师Seema Shah说："在这种情况下，当下没有降息的紧迫性 时，最安全的做法就是静观其变。" 决策者们将于6月17日至18日齐聚一堂。他们将于北京时间周四凌晨2:00发表声明，鲍威尔将在30分钟 后接受记者提问。 艰难抉择 人们普遍预计，特朗普的关税措施将抬高物价并减缓经济增长，官员们在上次会后声明中也提到了这些 风险。随着经济朝着相反的方向发展，这可能最终迫使美联储做出艰难的选择。 资本集团（Capital G ...