ADP周三报告称，由于企业准备应对美国总统特朗普对美国贸易伙伴征收关税可能带来的影响，4月招聘速度急剧放缓。 这份报告正值特朗普关税政策对企业招聘计划和更广泛经济状况影响的不确定性加剧之际。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，"不安是当前的主旋 律。雇主正试图在政策和消费者不确定性与一系列多数积极的经济数据之间取得平衡。在这样的环境下很难做出招聘决定。" 本月，美国私营部门新增就业人数仅为6.2万人，是自2024年7月以来的最小增幅，大幅低于11.5万人的预期，较3月下修后14.7万的增幅有所放缓。 数据公布后，现货黄金短线拉升，并一度重回3290美元。 ADP数据是劳工部周五公布的非农就业报告的先行指标，这两份报告可能存在显著差异。经济学家预计定于周五公布的非农就业报告将显示就业增长13.5万 人，与不包括政府就业的ADP数据不同，预计失业率将维持在4.2%不变。 工资增长也出现放缓，报告显示，留在现有岗位的员工薪资同比上涨4.5%，较3月下降0.1个百分点。然而，跳槽者薪资上涨至6.9%，上升0.2个百分点。 从行业角度来看，休闲和酒店业增幅最大，新增2.7万个就业岗位。其他录得增长的行 ...

Group 1 - The old market adage "Sell in May and go away" is influencing the current rebound in the US stock market, with historical data supporting this trend [1] - A fund tracking the S&P 500 index since 1993 shows a cumulative return of 171% from May to October, compared to 731% from November to April, indicating a significant seasonal performance difference [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 12% from its low this month but is still down 5.5% year-to-date, suggesting caution in chasing gains [1] Group 2 - Over the past 74 years, the S&P 500 index has only achieved a cumulative return of 35% from May to October, while the return from November to April has been as high as 11,657% [2] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is expected to be a key focus for the market, as it may influence investor sentiment and market direction [2] - Some indicators have signaled a buying opportunity, including a drop in investor confidence and the S&P 500 index recovering above 5,500 points, indicating a potential shift towards buying on dips [2] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that in years where the stock market has a poor start, the S&P 500 index tends to perform worse from May to October, with an average decline of 0.4% in such years [3] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF has seen a year-to-date decline of 5.4%, reflecting the cautious market sentiment [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated around 25, above the long-term average of approximately 20, indicating ongoing market volatility [3] Group 4 - The potential expiration of tariff suspensions by Trump in July could serve as a source of volatility, reinforcing the "Sell in May" trend and highlighting the impact of global trade dynamics on market movements [5] - Market analysts suggest that long-term holding strategies may be wiser for ordinary investors compared to attempting to time the market, with a buy-and-hold strategy since 1993 yielding a return of 2,100% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF [5]

智通财经APP注意到，至少有一位大额期权交易员押注1800万美元，赌美联储今年不会降息。 期货和期权市场的投资者整体上仍预计美联储将在7月会议上降息，并认为今年至少还会再降两次。但过去几周，一个重大头寸正在期权合约中累积——如 果美联储在2025年之前维持利率不变或加息，该合约将获利。 周二公布的芝加哥商品交易所(CME)数据显示，本周该交易的未平仓合约(即新增风险敞口)激增。这一赌注与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)合约挂钩，该合约 追踪美联储年底前的政策路径。 这一押注在当下显得尤为另类，因为投资者正评估特朗普关税政策对经济和通胀的潜在影响。许多华尔街人士加大押注，认为若关税导致经济放缓，美联储 将不得不降息。而近期针对12月合约的交易却淡化了这一预期。 与此同时，摩根大通客户调查显示，在特朗普宣布关税引发债市抛售后，投资者正重返国债现货市场，过去一周多头和空头头寸均小幅增加。 以下是利率市场最新定位指标的概述： 摩根大通财务客户调查 截至 4 月 28 日当周，多头和空头仓位均上涨 2 个百分点，而中性仓位则在当周下降了 4 个百分点。 知情人士透露，仅自上周四以来，一名或最多几名交易员就建立了8万份合约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dongfang Precision (东方精工), reported a stock price of 12.38 yuan as of April 29, 2025, with a slight increase of 0.24% and a trading volume of 947,500 shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 1.174 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Company Operations - The company focuses on high-end intelligent equipment manufacturing, with its main business covering intelligent packaging equipment and water power equipment [3]. - The company’s gasoline engine products are primarily used in small terminal machinery for agriculture and gardening, and gasoline generator sets can serve as backup power sources [2]. Group 2: Financial Information - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.3 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for the first quarter of 2025, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting [4]. - The company holds approximately 216 million shares of restricted stock, mainly from executives and the remaining unlifted shares from the 2022 stock incentive plan [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - On April 29, 2025, retail investors saw a net inflow of 25.124 million yuan, while institutional and speculative funds experienced net outflows of 9.788 million yuan and 15.336 million yuan, respectively [6]. - The company’s overseas revenue is primarily generated from local subsidiaries in Europe and North America, indicating that the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports is minimal for the company [5].

据了解，亚马逊将很快"在产品标价旁明确显示关税所占金额比例"。这一举措或将直接向美国消费者 展示特朗普关税政策如何推高商品价格，但这有可能损害该公司及其创始人杰夫·贝佐斯与特朗普政 府建立的任何良好关系。 当地时间4月29日，央视记者获悉，在亚马逊宣布将开始标注特朗普关税政策带来的商品额外成本 后，特朗普政府当日对亚马逊发起猛烈抨击。美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特称此举是"敌对的政治行为"。 ...

金十数据4月29日讯，在亚马逊宣布将开始标注特朗普关税政策带来的商品额外成本后，特朗普政府当 日对亚马逊发起猛烈抨击。美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特称此举是"敌对的政治行为"。据了解，亚马逊将很 快"在产品标价旁明确显示关税所占金额比例"。这一举措或将直接向美国消费者展示特朗普关税政策如 何推高商品价格，但这有可能损害该公司及其创始人杰夫·贝佐斯与特朗普政府建立的任何良好关系。 白宫抨击亚马逊展示关税价格 称其为"敌对政治行为" ...

从美国看美国-IMF 与 IIF 会议六大观察 20250427 摘要 • 特朗普关税政策对全球经济构成威胁，IMF 已下调全球经济增长预测，尤 其对流动资产有限的中小企业造成冲击，可能导致就业市场疲软。该政策 降低了对美元体系的信任，标普全球认为关税威胁可能导致美国信用评级 下调，美债收益率上升。 • 特朗普关税政策引发广泛争议，可能促使其调整政策。美国一些州已提起 诉讼，质疑其政策合法性。如果负面反馈持续，特朗普政府或将重新审视 贸易政策，以应对法律和经济压力。 • IMF 和 IIF 会议聚焦全球经济再平衡，美国财政部长耶伦阐述了全球经济形 势及未来发展方向。与会者强调多边合作的重要性，以应对不平等和贸易 保护主义，并探讨央行货币政策协调、财政刺激和结构性改革。 • 贝森特认为当前全球发展模式不可持续，美国通过刺激需求实现经济增长， 而其他国家则依赖美国的刺激扩大出口，导致全球经济不平衡。他批评 IMF 和世界银行未能有效协调各国之间的不平衡。 • 贝森特建议美国减少消费增加制造业投资，中国促进消费降低过剩供给， 实现中美经济再平衡。反对者认为美国应首先削减财政赤字，否则提高关 税也无法解决根本问题，且 ...

铜产业链周度报告 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 进口铜精矿现货亏损扩大至3400元/吨左右 COMEX和LME铜价价差回升至1400美元上方 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 2021-09 2022-01 2022-05 2022-09 2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 元/吨 铜精矿现货冶炼盈亏 现货TC（右轴） 美元/吨 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2022-03 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2 ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan Asset Management believes that U.S. Treasuries have greater upside potential compared to European bonds due to traders underestimating the extent of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve relative to the European Central Bank [1] - Myles Bradshaw, the global head of comprehensive strategy at JPMorgan, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will eventually need to implement larger rate cuts after maintaining policy for a longer period [1] - Concerns over Trump's tariff policies have led to a sell-off in U.S. government bonds, resulting in rising yields, but some global investors, including PIMCO, are beginning to see the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries [1] Group 2 - The current market expects the European Central Bank to lower deposit rates to 1.5% with three additional rate cuts this year, while traders anticipate at least three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve down to 3.75% [2] - Recent comments from Trump regarding trade negotiations with China and his softened stance towards Fed Chairman Powell have eased market tensions, leading to a significant drop in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [2] - The fundamental drivers for future market movements will be economic growth and inflation, which will determine the next steps [2]

特朗普关税：野心与现实的落差 2025042120250416 摘要 • 美国关税收入远低于预期，尽管理论上提高关税应带来千亿美元收入，但 实际数据显示，关税收入增量仅为数十亿美元，与预期相差甚远，表明关 税政策的执行效果不佳。 • 特朗普的对等关税政策可能导致全球贸易量显著收缩，美国进口弹性约为 负 0.8 至负 1，进口量显著下降，WTO 预测全球商品贸易量可能下降 1.5%，北美地区受影响更严重。 • 中国通过非直接贸易渠道向美国出口增加值利润，大约 20%的增加值通过 非直接渠道流向美国，且中国出口商品中包含其他国家零部件，使得中国 仍能保持出口增长。 • 美国从中国直接进口商品占比约为 14%，但考虑到非直接贸易渠道，中国 从美国消费者每花 100 美元购买海外商品中赚取的最终利润约为 18 美元， 较直接进口高出 30%。 • 关税政策对中国经济带来扰动，但中国具备足够的政策韧性应对，外交盟 友拓展比短期内部刺激更为重要，中国经济基本面出现积极起稳信号，资 本市场仍可保持乐观。 Q&A 特朗普关税政策的收入预期与实际差距如何？ 特朗普的关税加征政策在实际执行过程中面临显著挑战。根据 2025 年 ...