Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 remained high at 5.3% YoY, driven by strong exports and the "two new" sectors, but recent months have shown signs of weakness, particularly in retail sales which dropped to 3.7% in July [3][10][98] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies falling to -15.8%, the lowest in two years, and construction area growth declining significantly [3][17][98] - The decline in sales is evident, with new home prices in 70 cities showing negative month-on-month changes, and sales area and revenue down 7.8% and 14.1% YoY respectively [3][17][98] Price Transmission Issues - The current economic environment has led to difficulties in price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors, with midstream and downstream capacity utilization rates at 74% and 74.7%, respectively, compared to 76.7% for upstream [4][29][30] - Despite improvements in commodity prices due to "anti-involution" policies, the oversupply in midstream and downstream sectors continues to exert downward pressure on prices, with July's PPI remaining low at -3.6% [4][29][30] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with service production index only slightly down to 5.8% in July [5][38][99] - Service retail sales for the first seven months of 2025 saw a minor decline of 0.1% YoY, with certain service categories like tourism and transportation maintaining double-digit growth [5][38][99] - High levels of travel activity are expected to support service consumption recovery, with projected railway passenger numbers for the summer reaching 953 million, a 5.8% increase YoY [5][44][99] Policy Support for Services - Recent policies are increasingly favoring investments in the service sector, with loan interest subsidy policies expected to generate around 210 billion in new credit for service providers [6][49][100] - The large-scale support for manufacturing investment appears to be tapering off, indicating a potential shift in investment momentum towards the service sector [6][49][100] Export Performance - China's export growth remains robust, with a 7.2% YoY increase in July, primarily driven by improvements in external demand and market share rather than short-term "export grabbing" [7][60][101] - The contribution of "export grabbing" to July's export figures is estimated to be around 2 percentage points, with significant growth in exports of production materials to emerging economies [7][60][101] - The outlook for exports remains positive, with potential for further growth driven by increased investment in emerging markets and improved import shares from regions like the Middle East and Africa [7][73][101]

Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 was strong at 5.3% YoY, driven by exports and the "two new" sectors, but recent months show signs of weakness[3] - Retail sales growth fell to 3.7% in July, influenced by e-commerce promotions and a gap in national subsidies[3] - Real estate continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies dropping 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years[3][20] Inflation and Price Transmission - July's inflation was below market expectations, with PPI at -3.6% due to poor price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors[4][24] - Capacity utilization in midstream (74%) and downstream (74.7%) is significantly lower than upstream (76.7%), hindering price transmission[4][24] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with a service production index at 5.8%[5][32] - Service retail sales for January to July saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%, but certain service categories like tourism and leisure are experiencing double-digit growth[5][35] Export Performance - Exports grew by 7.2% YoY in July, with only 30% attributed to "panic buying" and 70% due to improved external demand and market share[7][44] - The contribution of "panic buying" to July's exports was approximately 2 percentage points, primarily affecting trade with ASEAN and Hong Kong[7][44] Future Outlook - Emerging economies are increasing investment, which, combined with China's growing import share in the Middle East and Africa, may boost exports to these regions[8][59] - Risks include potential short-term constraints from economic transformation and the effectiveness of policy implementation[8]

Core Insights - Despite escalating Western sanctions, the Russian economy has shown resilience, defying predictions of collapse by 2025 [2][3][9] - The interplay between energy exports and sanctions creates a complex "cat-and-mouse" game, with Russia finding ways to maintain its energy revenue despite restrictions [2][5] Economic Performance - In 2023, Russia's GDP grew by 3.6%, surpassing all developed economies, although this growth is less than in 2021 [3] - The Russian government faces significant budget pressures, leading to cuts in social welfare and rising living costs, with butter prices up 30% and potatoes up 65% [3][7] Industry Challenges - Russia is experiencing critical supply chain disruptions in key sectors such as chips, machinery, and high-end materials, with a 60% drop in automobile production in 2022 [5] - In the first half of 2024, 140,000 legal entities went bankrupt, predominantly in manufacturing, construction, and trade [5] Energy Dynamics - In 2022, oil and gas revenues accounted for 41% of Russia's total fiscal income, dropping to 27% in 2024, yet Russia continues to export oil to emerging markets like China and India [2][5] - The attempt to impose a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil has failed, with oil and gas revenues rising to 5.698 trillion rubles in the first half of 2024 [5][11] Political and Economic Strategy - The Kremlin prioritizes military spending over social expenditures, focusing on sustaining its war economy [5][11] - The long-term sustainability of this model remains uncertain, as it relies heavily on resource concentration and short-term fixes [11][13] Future Uncertainties - Russia faces long-term challenges such as population aging, technological gaps, and capital flight, which could lead to systemic risks [7][9] - The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with the potential for sudden shifts in strategy from both Russia and the West [16]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoint The short - term copper price will continue to fluctuate, with support at 78,000 [49]. Summary by Directory 01 Report Summary The short - term copper price will maintain a volatile trend, and the lower support level is 78,000 [49]. 02 Multi - empty Focus - **Positive Factors** - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating strong economic resilience, which reduced the market's bet on consecutive Fed rate cuts. The new home starts in the US in July increased significantly, and the S&P confirmed the US sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook [9][11]. - China's domestic policies for stable growth are continuously being implemented, including measures to boost investment, promote consumption, and implement a moderately loose monetary policy [13][15]. - China's demand for copper is strong. The import volume of scrap copper in July increased more than expected due to strong domestic demand from both the recycled copper processing and cold - material smelting sectors. The power sector has high - speed growth, and the automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity, which will drive copper consumption [25][31][38]. - The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with the domestic TC quotation at a historical low, which is a strong support factor for the fundamentals [19][20]. - **Negative Factors** - The real - estate market's demand for copper is still weak. The real - estate development data from January to July shows a decline in various indicators such as construction area, new - start area, and completion area, and the housing prices in different - tier cities also show a downward or narrowing - decline trend [35][37]. - The production of household appliances such as refrigerators and air - conditioners has adjusted. The production of refrigerators in July decreased month - on - month, and the production of air - conditioners in July dropped sharply month - on - month due to the end of promotion activities and inventory pressure [41][42]. 03 Data Analysis - **Supply Side** - In July, China's copper ore imports increased. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded [16][17]. - The production of refined copper in July decreased slightly. Affected by the shortage of cold - material supply, some smelters reduced production. The import volume of refined copper in July was 336,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05% [22][24]. - **Demand Side** - The import volume of scrap copper in July was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73%. The demand from domestic recycled copper processing and cold - material smelting sectors is strong [25][26]. - The power sector has high - speed growth. The national grid investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, and the power grid investment from January to June increased by 14.6% year - on - year [31][33]. - The automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity. The production of new - energy vehicles in July was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The total automobile sales are expected to increase in 2025, which will drive copper consumption [38][40]. - **Inventory and Price** - The inventory of copper exchanges has increased, while the domestic social inventory has decreased. As of August 21, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14,500 tons compared with August 18 [44][45]. - The domestic copper spot premium has decreased, and the foreign premium or discount has also decreased. On August 21, the premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot was about 115 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was about - 81.01 US dollars/ton [47]. 04后市研判 The short - term copper price will continue to fluctuate, with the lower support at 78,000 [49].

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates at 4% for the remainder of the year due to accelerating inflation and signs of a more resilient economy, making further monetary easing less justified [1][2] - Traders have reduced their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England this year, with swap trading indicating a less than 50% chance of a rate cut [1] - The overall inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.7% in July, with the Bank of England previously forecasting a peak of 4% in September, which is double its target [1] Group 2 - Following the unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Bank of England in August, market bets on easing policies have decreased [2] - The UK GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, surpassing economists' and the Bank of England's predictions of 0.1%, indicating stronger economic performance [2] - The shift in the Bank of England's policy outlook is boosting the British pound, which has appreciated by 2.5% against the US dollar this month, making it the best-performing G10 currency [2]

Group 1 - The UK economy showed resilience in Q2, with a GDP growth rate of 0.3% in June, exceeding expectations [1] - The performance of the economy provides some comfort to Chancellor Reeves, but raises the threshold for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] - Factors impacting the economy include a £26 billion tax increase policy, rising regulated prices, and the impact of tariffs from the US [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is expected to have limited downside, ideally supported around the 1.3500 level, which would allow for a healthy correction [2] - A successful breakout above the 1.3588-1.3618 resistance zone could open up potential towards 1.3788, marking the highest level since October 2021 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Accelerating the construction of a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while promoting mutual reinforcement between domestic and international circulation is a strategic deployment to grasp the initiative for future development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Resilience - China's economy demonstrates strong resilience, which is emphasized by Xi Jinping's repeated assertions regarding the country's economic potential and flexibility [1][8]. - The resilience of the economy is crucial for achieving high-quality development and ensuring a stable and secure environment for growth [5][8]. Group 2: Development and Security - The current strategic decision to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern is aimed at balancing development and security amidst various risks and challenges [2][5]. - High-quality development is identified as the primary task for building a modern socialist country and enhancing national security [3][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Achieving a smooth economic cycle relies on the strength and balance of both supply and demand sides, necessitating coordinated efforts to enhance economic vitality and mitigate risks [4][8]. - Continuous deepening of supply-side structural reforms is essential to enhance the resilience and safety of supply chains [4][8]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology - Emphasizing technological innovation is critical for national security and economic resilience, with a focus on achieving self-reliance in key technologies [7][12]. - The contribution of technological progress to economic growth is increasing, with significant advancements in various fields such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy [12][13]. Group 5: Open Economy - The new development pattern is characterized by an open domestic and international dual circulation, enhancing the interaction between domestic and international markets [6][13]. - Expanding foreign trade and investment is vital for maintaining economic stability and fostering growth [13][14]. Group 6: Institutional Strength - The unique economic system of China, which combines public and private ownership, is a key factor in maintaining economic resilience and promoting development [14][15]. - The governance structure and the leadership of the Communist Party are fundamental to effectively managing the economy and ensuring sustainable development [17].

财政部近日发布的数据显示，今年前4个月，全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%， 降幅较一季度收窄0.7个百分点；全国一般公共预算支出93581亿元，同比增长4.6%，完成预算的 31.5%，支出进度为2020年以来同期最快。 1至4月，全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多渠道盘活资产等带动。4月份，非税 收入增速进一步降至1.7%。对此，温彬表示，今年以来，非税收入增速持续放缓，主要是随着化债资 金落实到位，地方政府财政状况有所好转，对资产盘活的依赖度下降。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园表示，4月份，一般财政收入增速进一步抬升，税收收入增速由负转 正，四大税种中个税收入改善是主要支撑，其余税种走弱，可能与入库节奏有关。另外，国有资产盘活 较难持续，非税收入增速为去年3月份以来最低水平。 具体到4月份，一般公共预算收入同比增长1.9%，增速较上月加快1.6个百分点。其中，税收收入增 速加快4.1个百分点至1.9%，非税收入增速放缓4.3个百分点至1.7%；一般公共预算支出同比增长5.8%， 增速较上月加快0.1百分点。 中央财经大学教授温来成在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，今年前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The defense industry is deemed an essential component of Germany's economic resilience and has been historically undervalued, now needing to play a significant role in economic recovery [1] Industry Summary - The German Minister of Economic Affairs and Energy, Katrin Göring-Eckardt, emphasized the importance of the defense sector in contributing to the country's economic recovery [1]

Economic Performance - Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year in Q2, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth [1] - The economy has shown resilience despite complex external conditions, with a 3.1% growth in Q1 and a projected 2.5% growth for 2024 [1] Investment and Market Activity - The total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 42.7 trillion, a 33% year-on-year increase [1] - Hong Kong led the world in IPO fundraising with HKD 124 billion raised from 52 IPOs, a 590% increase year-on-year [1] - The number of companies with overseas parent companies in Hong Kong increased by approximately 10% to 9,960 [2] - The asset and wealth management business in Hong Kong totaled about HKD 35.1 trillion as of the end of last year [2] - The number of registered funds reached 976, with a net inflow of over USD 44 billion, a 285% increase year-on-year [2] Trade and Consumption - Overall merchandise exports from Hong Kong increased by 12.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery in external demand [2] - Retail sales in Hong Kong recorded their first year-on-year growth in 14 months as of May, suggesting a preliminary stabilization in the consumption market [2] Future Outlook - Confidence in Hong Kong's economy remains strong, with stable growth expected to enhance international trust [3] - Continuous GDP growth is anticipated to create more job opportunities and stimulate local consumption, fostering a positive economic cycle [3] - The government emphasizes the importance of maintaining an open and stable market environment to enhance Hong Kong's competitiveness on the international stage [3]