Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, driven by a series of better-than-expected macroeconomic data, alleviating concerns about an economic slowdown [2][11]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June showed an increase of 147,000, significantly above expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [11]. - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.5, indicating continued growth in the services sector [12]. - Industrial orders in May increased by 8.2%, marking the largest monthly gain since 2014, with non-defense orders rising by 7.5% [13]. Trade Negotiations Summary - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with EU negotiators, expressing hope for a principle trade agreement before the upcoming deadline [16]. - Yellen warned that if trade negotiations do not progress, tariffs may revert to previous levels [17]. - The market remains focused on the U.S. Congress's deliberations regarding President Trump's comprehensive tax and spending plan, with a procedural vote passing in the House [21][22]. Stock Market Performance Summary - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, reached all-time highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.97% and the S&P 500 up 0.81% [7]. - Solar stocks showed strong performance, with Sunrun rising over 18% and First Solar increasing over 8% [8]. - Notably, the stock of Brain Rejuvenation Technology surged over 170% in a single day, marking a year-to-date increase of 21,300% [10].

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June, Factory Orders data for May, and the final value of Durable Goods Orders for May [1]

周度报告-黄金 市场风险偏好回升，黄金承压下挫 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 黄金：看跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 29 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★市场综述： 伦敦金跌 2.8%至 3274 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.28%，通胀 预期 2.3%，实际利率降至 1.97%，美元指数跌 1.32%至 97.4，标普 500 指数涨 3.44%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 金价回调，一方面是地缘政治风险降温，美国打击伊朗核设施后 加快了伊朗和以色列的停火进程，美国没有朝着深陷战争泥潭的 方向发展，伊朗的回应也非常克制，原油价格基本回吐涨幅，减 少了美国通胀上行风险。一方面是美国经济尚未衰退，美联储维 持按兵不动暂停降息的状态，市场缺乏增量利多，鲍威尔在国会 就半年度货币政策报告作证词，表态鹰派，关税带来的不确定性 和通胀上行风险导致美联储对降息较为谨慎，同时美联储内部的 分歧也在增加，沃勒和鲍曼先后表态支持最快 ...

ITC国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 E 突期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D'AVE 市 市 官 方 网 站 服 热 线 客 需 有 译 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 慎 险 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格厨房 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust's holdings remain stable at 953.39 tons of gold, reflecting a cautious market sentiment amid fluctuating economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 26, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 953.39 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [2][7]. - The overall trend in gold ETF holdings shows fluctuations, with the latest data indicating a stable position [3][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - On June 26, spot gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of $3,350.31 per ounce and a low of $3,309.51, ultimately closing at $3,327.68, down $4.24 or 0.13% [7]. - Economic data from the U.S. shows mixed signals, with a 0.5% contraction in Q1 GDP and an increase in the trade deficit, alongside a rise in unemployment claims to a three-and-a-half-year high [7][8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market speculation suggests two potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first possibly in September, while the probability of a July cut remains at 20% [7][8]. - Divergent views among Federal Reserve officials regarding tariffs and inflation are influencing market expectations and gold prices [7][8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - The technical indicators for gold are currently neutral, suggesting a consolidation phase, with key support at $3,300 and resistance at $3,350 [8]. - If gold prices break below $3,300, the next support level is around $3,245, while a breakthrough above $3,350 could lead to resistance at $3,380 and $3,400 [8].

美国经济数据好坏参半，美国国债收益率略微上升。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices showed a slight increase, closing at $3332.02, up 0.27%, after hitting a two-week low [1] - In the European market, gold is trading around $3340 [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices had mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.25% at 42982.43, the Nasdaq up 0.31% at 19973.55, and the S&P 500 at 6092.16 [2] - President Trump is considering undermining Fed Chairman Powell, expressing frustration over the Fed's slow rate cuts [5] Group 3 - Potential candidates to replace Powell include Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller [6] - The market's future direction will depend on who is appointed as the next Fed Chair, with varying implications for market performance [6] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed will cut rates seven times by 2026, starting in March, with a final rate of 2.5% to 2.75% [7] - Swap markets have increased the probability of a July rate cut to 40%, with total expected cuts for the remaining meetings of the year rising from 45 basis points to 60 basis points [7] Group 5 - Deutsche Bank reports that internal divisions within the Fed are at a ten-year high, complicating the future rate cut path [9] Group 6 - Investors are focusing on key economic data releases, including Q1 GDP, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims, which could influence the dollar and gold prices [10] - If GDP data falls short of expectations, it may lead to a weaker dollar, benefiting non-dollar currencies and gold [10] Group 7 - There is a notable shift in investment focus, with firms rapidly selling European assets and reallocating to U.S. markets, particularly large tech stocks [12] - Major U.S. exchanges are in discussions with the SEC to relax listing regulations to attract more high-valuation startups [12]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's consumer confidence index for June is set to be released shortly, indicating potential shifts in consumer sentiment [1] - The US Conference Board's leading economic index for May will also be published soon, which may provide insights into future economic trends [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧，金价先下后上；美国三大股指全线收 跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美元指数涨0.69%报98.8，离岸人民币对美元小幅 贬值报7.1923；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌6.92个基点报4.377%； COMEX黄金期货跌0.32%报3406.50美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注2025陆家嘴论坛、美联储利率决议，美国5月新屋开工和营建许 可、英国5月CPI、欧央行官员密集讲话。特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧，金价再度 先下后上但依旧收跌。沪金溢价收敛至0元/ ...

摘要周二(6月17日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格上涨，目前交投于3392.69美元/盎司，涨幅0.24%。日内将 可关注美国5月零售销售月率、美国5月进口物价指数月率、美国5月工业产出月率、美国4月商业库存月 率等数据，整体上，预期偏向利好金价的力度较大。 Day称，这种情况使财政部处于非常困难的境地，因为他们现在面临未来的两大挑战。 Adrian Day资产管理公司的Adrian Day表示，贵金属市场的关键倒计时不是为了中东的核协议，而是为 了美国的债务协议。 他表示："美国财政部正面临资金危机，因为债务上限尚未提高，而且拜登政府给即将上任的特朗普政 府留下了一个空储柜。在特朗普宣誓就职前的周五，拜登的财政部长耶伦接受采访时说，我们将在周二 触及债务上限。这基本上就是'祝你好运，特朗普。'" Day表示，因此，到2025年为止没有净新增国债发行。 "我们唯一发行的国债是到期的国债，所以如果1000亿美元到期，他们就会出去发行1000亿美元。但他 们还不能再做什么了，而且他们已经没有什么花招了。他们正在讨论降低银行的存款准备金率，但作为 交换条件，他们不会把钱存入美联储，而是转而用这些钱购买美债。" "现在我们 ...