格隆汇11月13日｜经济学家预计，美国延迟的经济数据可能会在下周陆续公布，而焦点在于这些数据是 否会支持显示就业市场疲软的民间调查。股票经纪公司Argonaut的机构销售主管Damian Rooney说："现 在的论点之一是，随着美国政府重启，我们应该会得到很多数据，这些数据将为（美联储主席鲍威尔） 提供更清晰的信息，让他说：'我将因此而降息'。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

经济数据将密集发布：政府重启后，此前延迟的大量经济数据（如就业报告）将陆续公布。如果数据持续显示美国经济放缓，可能强化美联储的降息预期， 利好黄金。 美联储政策的不确定性 根据CME"美联储观察"工具，市场目前预测美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为64.1%，较此前90%的预期已大幅降温。 若金价回调至4090-4100美元支撑区域，可以考虑轻仓试多，止损参考4080美元下方，短期目标看向4130-4150-4200美元。 若金价反弹至4140-4160美元的强阻力区并出现受阻迹象（如上涨动能减弱），可以轻仓试空，短期目标看向4110-4098美元/盎司，上破4160美元/盎司则考 虑止损。 以上策略，仅供参考。市场瞬息万变，操作时请务必轻仓并设置好止损。 影响黄金波动的关键因素 美国政策与数据预期 政府"停摆"结束：美国参议院已通过临时拨款法案，政府重启后预计将释放约7000亿美元被冻结的资金。这增加了市场流动性，对金价构成支撑，但其实际 影响节奏尚不确定。 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 在流动性充裕的背景下，美联储可能放缓降息节奏，转而使用其他工具呵护资金面。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logics include short - term hedging due to geopolitical risks after the Sino - US talks, the weakening US employment and moderate inflation leading to potential Fed rate cuts, the impact of the US government shutdown and consumer confidence on the currency attribute, and the influence of the CRB commodity index and RMB appreciation on the commodity attribute [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold closed at $4007.80 per ounce, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.14% from last week; London gold closed at $3994.10 per ounce, up 0.19% from the previous day and down 0.43% from last week; Shanghai gold futures closed at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 1.60% from the previous day and 1.45% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 933.02 yuan per gram, up 1.68% from the previous day and 1.39% from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai gold futures positions decreased by 9.72% from last week; Gold T + D positions decreased by 2.23% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week; Shanghai gold futures inventory increased by 1.32% from last week [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver closed at $48.23 per ounce, up 0.79% from the previous day and down 0.05% from last week; London silver closed at $48.70 per ounce, up 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai silver futures closed at 11,719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.05% from the previous day and 2.30% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,726 yuan per kilogram, up 2.14% from the previous day and 2.48% from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai silver futures positions decreased by 2.91% from last week; Silver T + D positions decreased by 2.65% from last week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 6.53% from last week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.48% from last week; Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 7.42% from last week [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve and Monetary Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25; the Fed's total assets are $6623.643 billion, down 0.00% from last week; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 [8]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, down 1.23% from the previous day and up 1.69% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.55, down 0.16% from the previous day and 0.18% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and 16.13% from last week [8]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%, up 0.14; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.91%, up 0.05 [10]. - **Economic Growth and Other Indicators**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is 3.80%, up 4.40; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, down 0.57 million [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed resilience despite external shocks. The stock index futures market is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short term, while the bond market has limited upward space. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of different varieties vary. For example, the price of soybean meal is affected by trade relations and supply - demand, and the international sugar price is in a downward trend. - The black metal market is in a state of shock. Steel prices are in a range - bound state, and the double - coke market is expected to be strong after a callback. - The non - ferrous metal market has different trends for each variety. Precious metals are in a range - bound arrangement, and the prices of some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost. - The energy and chemical market also shows different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has support, while the price of asphalt is under pressure. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market was affected by the overnight decline of US stocks but quickly rebounded. The short - term market will maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to buy at low levels near 3930 points of the Shanghai Composite Index and reduce positions at high levels above 4000 points. Also, consider IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage and bull spread options at low levels [18][19]. - **Treasury Futures**: The treasury futures closed mostly lower on Wednesday. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking. In the future, short - term long positions can be tried on the TL contract, and pay attention to short - term spread and term spread arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Trade relations are beneficial to US soybeans, but the international soybean supply is abundant. The price of domestic soybean meal is supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts [25][26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a downward trend due to increased production in major producing areas. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state. It is recommended to operate in the range and short the international sugar while going long on Zhengzhou sugar [29][30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to gradually decrease after accumulating in October, and the domestic palm oil inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider going long at low levels [33][34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn is expected to be in a narrow - range shock. The domestic corn price has a short - term decline space. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month contract, and wait for a callback for the 05 and 07 - month contracts [37][38]. - **Pigs**: The pressure of pig slaughter continues, and the price remains low. It is recommended to short a small amount [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is rebounding, and the 01 - month contract is in a short - term bottom shock. It is recommended to go long lightly on the 01 and 05 - month contracts [42][43][44]. - **Eggs**: The number of culled chickens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Apples**: The market is expected to fluctuate greatly with the release of warehousing data. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton harvest is at its peak. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The iron - making output is shrinking, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold the long position of the coil - screw spread [60][61]. - **Double - Coke**: The market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [62][63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a bearish view. The price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is at a low level, and previous short positions can be reduced. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Multiple factors are intertwined, and the precious metals market is in a range - bound arrangement. It is recommended to operate in a band [71][72][74]. - **Copper**: The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see and continue to hold the inter - market cash - and - carry arbitrage [75][76][77]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side production reduction has not been implemented, and the price is in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to wait and see [78][80][81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The demand is resilient, and the price is expected to rise on dips. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage [82][84][85]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The seasonal peak season is coming, and the price is expected to rise on dips. It is recommended to go long on dips [86][87][89]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and previous long positions can take partial profit [90][91][92]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to hold short positions. The price may have a downward space. Be vigilant about the impact of funds on the price [94][95]. - **Nickel**: The supply - demand is loose, the cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in a shock [96].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to decline, with London gold slightly down by 0.14% to $3995.2 per ounce, reaching a low of $3966.395 during the session [1][2]. Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold is priced at $3995.2 per ounce, down by $5.75 or 0.14% from the previous close of $4000.95 [2]. - COMEX gold futures also show a slight decline of 0.29%, trading at $4002.5 per ounce, with a session low of $3975 [4]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent pullback in gold prices is a normal correction following a significant rise, with the current retracement still within a reasonable range [4]. - Factors such as the cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a strengthening dollar are exerting downward pressure on gold prices, with key technical support levels being breached [4]. - Despite the current decline, fundamental factors supporting a bullish outlook for gold remain unchanged, including ongoing U.S. debt issues, government shutdown concerns, and continued geopolitical tensions [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a volatile but generally upward trend for gold prices, with short-term movements heavily influenced by Federal Reserve policy and U.S. economic data [4]. - Resistance levels are identified between $4050 and $4100 per ounce, while support is seen around $3800 per ounce [4]. - Investment strategies suggest cautious positioning, with recommendations for light long positions in the short term and potential short positions if key technical levels are breached [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals continued their upward trend, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.84% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.93% [1]. - The short - term core logic includes increased short - term hedging demand due to the escalation of trade wars and the US government shutdown, and the increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The escalation of Trump's trade war and the US government shutdown have increased market uncertainty, enhancing the hedging attribute of precious metals [1]. - Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials might stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, and Fed Governor Waller warned of a possible negative turn in US employment growth. The Fed's Beige Book showed little change in US economic activity recently but signs of cooling consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in October with a probability of around 90% and about 2 more cuts this year [1]. - The 1 - month implied lease rate of London silver has soared, indicating a tight silver spot market. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, the release times of retail sales, PPI and other data are postponed [1]. - Gold price trends are the anchor for silver price trends. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible silver inventory has slightly decreased [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4224.90 per ounce, up 1.57% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4204.60 per ounce, up 1.90% from the previous day and 4.07% from the previous week [2]. - **Domestic Prices**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 999.80 yuan per gram, up 3.45% from the previous day and 10.90% from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 995.90 yuan per gram, up 2.96% from the previous day and 10.93% from the previous week [2]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The difference between the main Shanghai gold contract and London gold was 27.72 yuan per gram, up 97% from the previous day and - 183% from the previous week; the main Shanghai gold contract basis was - 3.90 yuan per gram; the gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 79.30, down 0.25% from the previous day and 2.43% from the previous week; the gold - to - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.45, up 4.25% from the previous day and 5.98% from the previous week; the gold - to - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 72.11, up 3.25% from the previous day and 10.17% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot); the main Shanghai gold contract positions were 222,192 lots (kilograms per lot), down 1.32% from the previous day and 6.85% from the previous week; gold TD positions were 254,996 lots (kilograms per lot), up 2.20% from the previous day and 11.18% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week [2]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: Asset management institutions' weekly positions were 158,616 lots, down 1,867 lots from the previous week [2]. - **Gold ETF**: SPDR gold ETF holdings were 952.53 tons, down 0.33% from the previous week [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered Shanghai gold warehouse receipts was 18 tons, up 0.38% from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $53.43 per ounce, up 1.72% from the previous day and 12.12% from the previous week; London silver closed at $53.02 per ounce, up 0.83% from the previous day and 6.67% from the previous week [5]. - **Domestic Prices**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 12,249 yuan per kilogram, up 1.93% from the previous day and 10.53% from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 12,228 yuan per kilogram, up 2.06% from the previous day and 10.57% from the previous week [5]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The difference between the main Shanghai silver contract and London silver was 98.89 yuan per gram, down 395.86% from the previous day and 131.49% from the previous week; the main Shanghai silver contract basis was - 21 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Positions**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots (5,000 ounces per lot); the main Shanghai silver contract positions were 7,067,430 lots (kilograms per lot), up 0.60% from the previous day and 2.40% from the previous week; silver TD positions were 3,623,146 lots (kilograms per lot), down 1.80% from the previous day and up 14.78% from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory was 24,581 tons, down 0.26% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory was 15,928 tons, down 1.97% from the previous week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory was 982 tons, down 17.24% from the previous week; silver (SGE) inventory was 1,108 tons; the total visible inventory was 42,538 tons, down 0.58% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week [5]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: Asset management institutions' weekly positions were 40,065 lots, up 1,937 lots from the previous week [5]. - **Silver ETF**: iShare silver ETF holdings were 15,422.61 tons, down 0.19% from the previous week [5]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered Shanghai silver warehouse receipts was 1,169,061 kilograms, down 1.95% from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.25%, the discount rate was 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.15%, all down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the Fed's total assets were $6,641.668 billion, up $4.268 billion from the previous week [7]. - **US Economic Indicators**: M2 year - on - year growth was 4.77%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.29%, down 1.29% from the previous day and the previous week; the US dollar index was 98.34, down 0.35% from the previous day and 0.50% from the previous week; various interest rate spreads and inflation - related indicators showed different changes [7][8]. - **US Economic Growth and Labor Market**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 2.00%, down 0.30 percentage points; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was 3.80%, up 4.40 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.30%, up 0.10 percentage points; non - farm payrolls monthly change was 2.20 million, down 0.57 million; labor participation rate was 62.40%, down 0.30 percentage points; average hourly wage growth was 3.70%, down 0.20 percentage points; other labor - market - related data also had corresponding changes [7]. - **US Real Estate and Consumption**: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, up 15.63% from the previous week; existing home sales were 4 million units, down 0.25% from the previous week; new home sales were 660,000 units, up 15.15% from the previous week; retail sales year - on - year growth was 3.76%, down 0.26 percentage points; personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth was 5.55%, up 0.37 percentage points; other related data also showed different trends [7][8]. - **US Industrial and Trade**: Industrial production index year - on - year growth was 0.87%, down 0.39 percentage points; durable goods new orders were $76.706 billion, up $4.70 billion; exports year - on - year growth was - 27.03%, up 6.09 percentage points; imports year - on - year growth was - 16.11%, down 0.07 percentage points; the trade balance was - $78.3 billion [7][8]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data**: China's gold reserves were 2,303.52 tons, up 0.14% from the previous week; the US gold reserves were 8,133.46 tons; global gold reserves were 36,268.07 tons; the US dollar's share in IMF foreign exchange reserves was 57.80%, up 0.88%; the geopolitical risk index was 259.24, up 57.54% from the previous week; the VIX index was 28.34, up 30.84% from the previous week; the CRB commodity index was 293.61, down 1.91% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1277, down 0.05% from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the Fed's latest interest - rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various future meeting dates from 2025/10/29 to 2027/9/15 [10].

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 75,099 kilograms, with an increase of 2,916 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - On October 15, gold futures opened at 937.50 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 960.42 CNY per gram and a low of 934.50 CNY per gram, with a current price of 960.34 CNY per gram, reflecting a rise of 2.09% [1] - The trading volume for the day is 420,246 contracts, with an open interest of 230,686 contracts, and a daily increase in open interest of 2,227 contracts [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of several key economic data releases, affecting global economic insights and decision-making [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy complicates other countries' monetary policy formulation, trade performance assessment, and inflation trend predictions [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, which are crucial for economic assessment [1] - The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, responsible for these reports, is significantly impacted by the shutdown, leading to potential longer delays in data collection and processing for October [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is currently relying on private sector data to evaluate the economy, but this cannot fully substitute for government statistics, especially for October data [1] Group 2 - High inflation typically necessitates the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, while a slowing job market would push for rate cuts [2] - Data from the Labor Department revealed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, a significant drop from the revised 79,000 in July and below market expectations [2] - The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking the largest increase since January and remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold and silver prices are experiencing significant volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold prices recently reaching record highs [1][3][5] - On October 9, gold prices fluctuated dramatically, with COMEX December gold futures reaching nearly $4078 before dropping to below $3958, reflecting market reactions to U.S. government budget negotiations and economic data delays [3][4] - The demand for gold as a defensive asset has surged due to economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, with predictions suggesting gold prices could rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months [5][6] Group 2 - Silver prices have followed a similar trajectory to gold, with COMEX December silver futures peaking at nearly $50 before experiencing a significant drop, highlighting its sensitivity to dollar movements [6][8] - The industrial demand for silver is increasing, particularly in sectors like electronics and renewable energy, which is expected to support its price [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while silver has potential for upward movement, its smaller market size compared to gold makes it more susceptible to volatility, making gold a more stable investment option [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend during the National Day holiday, with four consecutive days of gains, despite a slight decline after reaching around 4059 [1] Group 1: Fundamentals - The Federal Reserve has strong expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated by the end of October and a 78% probability of another cut in December, which weakens the dollar's attractiveness [2] - The U.S. government shutdown has increased uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the lack of official economic data [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have previously supported gold prices, while central banks and ETFs have significantly increased their gold holdings, with global ETF inflows reaching $64 billion in 2025 and a record $17.3 billion in September alone [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 88, indicating an overbought condition, bullish sentiment remains strong, supported by multiple favorable factors including continued Fed easing and global economic uncertainty [4] - The daily moving averages indicate a strong bullish structure, with key support levels at approximately 3970 for the 5-day moving average and 3900 for the 10-day moving average [6] - The current price action suggests a potential adjustment phase, with a focus on the resistance level around 4059, while remaining cautious of further upward movement after any short-term corrections [9]