Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The polyester chain is in a volatile pattern due to the game between cost drag and terminal resilience in production starts [2] - The future trend of the polyester industry chain is weakening, with PTA and PX prices likely to decline further and downstream polyester product prices under pressure [7] - PX may see a slight increase, while PTA may fluctuate or decline slightly [51] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On November 24, the PX main contract closed at 6,772.0 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -229.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,680.0 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -60.0 yuan/ton [3] - On the cost side, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.51 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 57.98 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 642.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 693.8 million meters [3] - On the supply side, potential device maintenance or low operating rates may tighten supply. PTA's supply depends on PX input, and rising PX costs may strengthen PTA's cost support, with future prices likely to fluctuate upward [4] - On the demand side, the significantly lower trading volume in the Light Textile City indicates weak terminal textile consumption, which may pressure the polyester operating rate and weaken PTA procurement willingness. The impact on PX demand is limited due to its low consumption elasticity [5] - On the inventory side, the risk of PTA inventory accumulation increases the downward price space. A decline in the polyester operating rate may slow down PTA shipments and increase factory inventory. Once PTA inventory rises, supply - demand imbalance will amplify selling pressure [6] Polyester - On November 24, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,242.0 yuan/ton, up 1.3% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,300.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 58.0 yuan/ton [7] - The continuous decline in the trading volume of the China Light Textile City reflects weak downstream demand. The overall inventory accumulation signal is emerging, especially the weak demand for filament yarns [7] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price increased by 0.33%, the trading volume decreased by 23.12%, and the open interest decreased by 0.16% [8] - PTA futures: The main contract price increased by 0.30%, the trading volume decreased by 18.12%, and the open interest decreased by 0.17% [8] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price increased by 1.30%, the trading volume decreased by 8.95%, and the open interest decreased by 3.00% [8] - Other products: Most product prices remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes [8][9] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts on November 24 and 21, and the decision - making on interest rate cuts became more complex due to factors such as the cancellation of the October CPI report and employment data [10][11] - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the Geneva talks between the US and Ukraine were reported to have "made progress," and the peace process was considered to be advancing [10] Supply - Demand - Demand - On November 24, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 642.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 16.62%, with 526.0 million meters of filament fabric trading volume and 115.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [12] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, etc. [13][15][17]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the polyester industry, covering PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products. It includes supply, demand, valuation, and inventory information, as well as trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - Domestic PX drives up the overseas market, and the PXN spread has strengthened significantly. The gasoline market has ended the squeeze and started to build inventories. The disproportionation unit is in a loss, and the PX - MX spread remains high [15][22][23] Supply - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high, with an operating rate of 89.5% (+2.7%) this week. The Asian PX operating rate is 79.7% (+1.2%). Some Korean and Japanese devices have maintenance or production reduction plans [42][43] Demand - The PTA operating rate has continued to decline to 72% (-3.7%), reducing the demand for PX [3][4] Inventory - In October, the monthly inventory of PX accumulated by 100,000 tons to 4.02 million tons [65] Strategy - The upside space is limited. For cross - varieties, short PXN and long MEG short PX [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - The inventory has continued to accumulate, but the valuation and monthly spread have risen following PX. The processing fee has remained at a low level for a long time [71][81] Supply - The PTA operating rate has declined to 72% (-3.7%). Some devices have stopped or extended the maintenance time, and the weekly output is about 1.41 million tons [4][83] Demand - The polyester device operating rate is 91.3%, with a rigid demand for PTA of 1.33 million tons. Since November, the new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [4][5] Inventory - The inventory has slightly accumulated and shifted to the delivery warehouse [106] Strategy - Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PTA [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price trend is weak. The relative valuation has continued to decline, and the device profit is in a loss [120][124][126] Supply - The operating rate has dropped to 70.67% (-1.9%). Multiple coal - chemical devices have short - stopped, and some devices have maintenance plans in the future. The domestic weekly supply is about 405,000 tons [5][129] Demand - The polyester device operating rate remains around 91.3%, with a rigid demand for MEG of 520,000 tons. The new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [5] Inventory - The supply - demand balance sheet has improved, and the expected inventory accumulation rate has decreased [139] Strategy - Operate in the range of 3800 - 4000. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PX [5] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Production - The polyester operating rate is 91.3% (+0.8%). In 2025, the polyester production has increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the growth rate in 2026 is expected to be flat at 5 - 6% [143][150] Export - From January to October, the total polyester export was 12 million tons, +15.2%. The exports of various polyester products have increased to varying degrees [151] Inventory - The downstream sales are sluggish, and the inventory has started to rise [152]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PTA prices rose due to concerns about reduced PX supply and extended maintenance of a 2.2 million - ton PTA plant in East China, with spot basis strengthening and average downstream polyester sales [2]. - PX prices rebounded due to factors like high gasoline profit rates and low pure - benzene prices, which limited PX production. PTA supply slightly shrank, polyester开工 remained stable above 90%, and domestic polyester exports were optimistic. The downstream weaving industry performed well after "Golden September and Silver October" [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports increased by 120,000 tons. New plant launches pressured ethylene glycol prices, and coal price increases did not strongly support costs. The Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price increased from 458.8 to 464.5 yuan/barrel, a change of 5.70 yuan [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Value increased from 1335.9 to 1336.4, a change of 0.58 [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: Decreased from 1.4007 to 1.3959, a change of - 0.0047 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Price increased from 827 to 832, a change of 5 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Increased from 256 to 264, a change of 8 [2]. - **PTA Main Futures Price**: Increased from 4670 to 4712 yuan/ton, a change of 42.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: Increased from 4610 to 4640 yuan/ton, a change of 30.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Increased from 176.1 to 188.4 yuan/ton, a change of 12.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Increased from 246.1 to 260.4 yuan/ton, a change of 14.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Basis**: No change, remaining at (72) [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: No change, remaining at 111,696 [2]. - **MEG Main Futures Price**: Decreased from 3907 to 3903 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (146.49) to (146.68) yuan/ton, a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: Decreased from 3952 to 3919 yuan/ton, a change of - 33.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Basis**: Decreased from 36 to 26, a change of - 10.0 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained at 87.39% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained at 74.55% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Decreased from 61.86% to 60.73%, a change of - 1.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained at 88.69% [2]. Product Data - **POY 150D/48F**: No change [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Decreased from 70 to 55, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **FDY 150D/96F**: No change [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Decreased from (175) to (190), a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **DTY 150D/48F**: No change [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Decreased from 150 to 135, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Long - Filament Sales Volume**: Increased from 41% to 65%, a change of 24% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Increased from 6350 to 6370 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 185 to 190, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **Staple - Fiber Sales Volume**: Increased from 49% to 73%, a change of 24% [2]. - **Semi - Gloss Chip**: Increased from 5565 to 5570 yuan/ton, a change of 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Chip Cash Flow**: Decreased from (50) to (60), a change of - 10.0 [2]. - **Chip Sales Volume**: Decreased from 49% to 48%, a change of - 1% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Singapore, originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has postponed its restart, and the specific restart plan is unknown [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester industries, covering their basic knowledge, production, trade, and market conditions. It highlights the high concentration of PTA and MEG production in Asia, especially in China, and the significant growth in domestic production capacity in recent years. The report also discusses the trade patterns, profit situations, and market trends of these industries [12][24][43]. 3. Summary by Directory PTA Basics - **Definition and Market Introduction**: PTA, or purified terephthalic acid, was the first chemical futures variety listed in China in December 2006. It is a raw material for polyester with end - uses mainly in textile, clothing, and soft drinks [12]. - **Storage and Transportation**: Mainly stored in packaging bags at East China's main port terminals, with storage areas along the Yangtze River, Hangzhou Bay, and Xiamen. Transportation is mainly by sea and inland waterways, with some short - distance transportation by road [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Produced from crude oil via PX, it is mainly used to produce polyester (PET). One ton of PET requires 0.855 tons of PTA and 0.332 tons of MEG. About 70% of PTA is used for polyester fibers, 24% for bottle - grade polyester, and the rest for film - grade polyester [19][20]. - **Production Capacity**: Global PTA capacity is mainly in Asia (nearly 90%), with China accounting for over 78% of Asia's capacity. As of November 2025, China's effective PTA capacity reached 9471.5 million tons [24]. - **Capacity Distribution**: Regionally concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with private enterprises being the main suppliers. Yisheng and Hengli account for 41% of the total capacity [27][28]. - **Import and Export**: China's PTA imports have decreased from 2.74 million tons in 2013 to 18,000 tons in 2024, while exports reached 4.42 million tons in 2024, mainly to other Asian regions and Russia [31]. - **Profit Situation**: From 2016 - 2019, the industry had high profits due to limited new capacity and downstream recovery. From 2020 - 2024, private large - scale refineries' concentrated production led to compressed processing fees and the elimination of some high - cost small - scale plants [36]. - **Trading Patterns**: Include long - term contracts (referencing CCF's daily average price with appropriate premiums/discounts), spot trading (futures + price - fixing), and derivative pricing methods (futures price - fixing + monthly/weekly average basis) [38]. MEG Basics - **Definition and Application**: Ethylene glycol (MEG) is an important petrochemical raw material, mainly used in polyester production. Globally, about 85% of MEG is used in polyester, while in China, over 93% is used in polyester [43]. - **Production Process**: The main synthesis routes are the ethylene route (including petroleum ethylene, ethane ethylene, and MTO ethylene methods) and the oxalate route. The ethylene method is the global mainstream, while China mainly uses the petroleum ethylene method and the coal - to - ethylene glycol oxalate method [50][51]. - **Profitability of Different Processes**: Coal - to - MEG's profit has improved significantly this year, with higher operating loads. Ethylene - based MEG has been operating below the break - even point, but losses have narrowed compared to the previous two years [54]. - **Production Capacity Development**: China's MEG production capacity has reached 30.075 million tons, with ethylene - based capacity accounting for about 64% and coal - based capacity accounting for 36% [58][62]. - **Production Distribution**: Ethylene - based plants are mainly in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning, while coal - based plants are in Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia [62]. - **Import and Export**: MEG imports peaked in 2020 and have since declined. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 25%, with the main import sources being Saudi Arabia, Canada, and the United States [65]. Downstream Polyester Basics - **PTA/MEG's Downstream Products**: The main downstream demand for PTA/MEG is polyester, which is used in textile, clothing, beverages, and film products. Filament has the largest share in polyester, followed by short - fiber and bottle - chips [69]. - **Short - Fiber Basics**: Polyester short - fiber is made from PTA and MEG. Its trade pattern is mainly from east to west and bidirectional north - south. The main production and sales areas are Jiangsu, Fujian, and Zhejiang, with transportation mainly by road, water, and rail [71][76][77]. - **Short - Fiber Industry Chain**: It is produced from crude oil via PTA and MEG, with end - uses in filling, non - woven, and spinning. In 2024, spinning accounted for 64% of direct - spun polyester short - fiber production [79]. - **Short - Fiber Production Capacity Distribution**: Concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. In recent years, short - fiber exports have increased significantly, with 1.318 million tons exported in 2024, a 9.4% increase year - on - year, and 1.255 million tons exported from January - September 2025, a 31% increase year - on - year [83][88]. - **Polyester Bottle - Chips Basics**: Made from PTA and MEG, used mainly for packaging. Sales are divided into direct sales (60% - 70%) and distribution (30% - 40%) [91][102]. - **Bottle - Chips Production Capacity**: Production capacity has increased rapidly, exceeding 20 million tons at the end of 2024, almost doubling since the end of 2022 [105]. - **Bottle - Chips Demand**: Global demand has been growing steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2015 - 2024. In 2024, the main downstream consumption areas were soft drinks (39%), exports (42.4%), sheet materials (15.8%), and oil bottles (2.9%) [108]. - **Bottle - Chips Export Trade**: China is the world's largest net exporter, with exports widely distributed. In 2024, the top five export destinations accounted for only 23% of total exports [112][113].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to factors such as high gasoline profit rates and low pure benzene prices, which limit PX supply. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester开工 remains stable, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. The downstream weaving industry shows good performance, and export demand may improve [3]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly by 120,000 tons. Ethylene prices cannot support the strengthening of ethylene glycol prices. New device commissions put pressure on ethylene glycol prices. The cost support from rising coal prices is weak, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - INE crude oil price increased from 449.5 yuan/barrel on November 13, 2025, to 457.4 yuan/barrel on November 14, 2025, with a change of 7.9 yuan [3]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1433.4 yuan/ton to 1376.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 57.41 yuan; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4388 to 1.4140, a change of - 0.0249 [3]. - CFR China PX increased from 826 to 832, a change of 6; PX - naphtha spread increased from 242 to 263, a change of 21 [3]. - PTA spot price increased from 4565 yuan/ton to 4635 yuan/ton, a change of 70 yuan; spot processing fee increased from 145.9 yuan/ton to 186.3 yuan/ton, a change of 40.4 yuan; the disk processing fee decreased from 280.9 yuan/ton to 251.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 29.6 yuan [3]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3892 yuan/ton to 3922 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan; MEG - naphtha increased from - 147 yuan/ton to - 144 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan; MEG内盘 increased from 3941 yuan/ton to 3980 yuan/ton, a change of 39 yuan [3]. - PX, PTA, and MEG开工 rates remained unchanged at 88.03%, 76.84%, and 64.20% respectively; polyester负荷 decreased from 89.07% to 88.69%, a change of - 0.38% [3]. - Among polyester products, POY150D/48F and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged, FDY150D/96F increased by 30 yuan, 1.4D直纺涤短 increased by 60 yuan, and semi - light切片 increased by 35 yuan [3]. - The cash flows of POY, DTY, and涤短 decreased by 73, 73, and 13 respectively, and FDY现金流 decreased by 43 [3]. - The production and sales rates of long - staple fiber increased by 2%, and those of short - staple fiber increased by 9%, while the production and sales rate of polyester切片 decreased by 17% [3]. Device Maintenance Information - The restart time of a 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Singapore, which was originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has been postponed, and the specific restart plan is unknown [4].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has shown strong performance recently, driven by a combination of macroeconomic recovery, stable cost support, and robust fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in the polyester industry chain since late October is attributed to stable cost support, particularly from international oil prices and coordinated production cuts by leading PTA companies [1] - The PX segment has been particularly strong due to tight supply expectations, with new capacity not expected until Q3 2026 [1] - Geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Nigeria have provided upward momentum for crude oil prices, which continues to affect the polyester industry chain [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Improved supply and demand dynamics, along with a recovery in terminal orders and easing US-China trade relations, have heightened expectations for an increase in foreign trade orders by year-end [1] - The PTA price rebound is supported by increased maintenance of PTA facilities, which delays supply pressure, and favorable export conditions due to India's cancellation of BIS certification for polyester products [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Despite PTA futures nearing September highs, concerns about price declines are limited, with a low probability of significant downward movement in polyester chain prices [3] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of "cost support, improved expectations, and differentiated fundamentals," with short-term strong fluctuations expected to continue [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Future price increases in the polyester industry chain will largely depend on cost factors and whether domestic and foreign orders improve beyond expectations [4] - Analysts express differing views on the market outlook, with some expecting a strong performance driven by long-term fundamentals, while others caution about potential downward risks from declining downstream orders [4][5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the polyester industry, covering PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products [3][4][5] - It includes supply, demand, valuation, and strategy insights for each segment - Forecasts for 2026 indicate continued growth in polyester production and potential challenges in supply - demand balance Group 2: PX Analysis Investment Rating - PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain in the first half of 2026 [15] Core View - PX is in a strong - oscillating market, with cost support from blending demand but potential downstream demand weakness [3] Supply - Chinese FJDH will expand a 70 - ton device to 100 tons by the end of the year; some overseas devices are under maintenance [3] - The domestic operating rate is at a historical high, with 10 - month output of 3.35 million tons and this week's rate at 86.8% (- 3%) [46] Demand - PTA load has been adjusted, and subsequent load will remain low, with inventory accumulation pressure easing temporarily [3][4] Valuation - PXN is at $256/ton (+15), and PX - MX Korea FOB spread is $103/ton (- 6) [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 6,600 - 7,100 [3] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] - Inter - variety: Short PXN at high levels [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Investment Rating - PTA is in a strong - oscillating market, but with limited upside space [4] Core View - Cost support exists, but supply may still be excessive after some device overhauls end [4] Supply - Some PTA devices are under maintenance, and the load has been adjusted to 75.7% (- 0.7%) [4][84] - The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [84] Demand - Polyester load has temporarily decreased but is expected to rebound; domestic weaving orders are weakening [4] Valuation - The processing fee of the 01 contract is 219 yuan/ton (- 31), and the spot processing fee is 173 yuan/ton (+ 51) [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 4,500 - 4,800 [4] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage at high levels [4] - Inter - variety: Long PTA and short MEG, long PX and short PTA [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Investment Rating - MEG faces medium - term supply pressure and is in a short - term weak - oscillating state [5] Core View - Supply pressure persists, and short - term trends are weak, with a negative spread strategy for the spread [5] Supply - The overall operating rate is 72.44% (- 3.76%), and some coal - based devices have reduced loads [5][128] - Imports have been concentrated recently, and port inventories are accumulating [5][131] Demand - Domestic downstream orders are weakening, but polyester load remains relatively stable in the short term [5] Valuation - Coal - based device profit is - 299 yuan/ton (- 265), and oil - based devices continue to lose money [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 3,800 - 4,000 [5] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [5] - Inter - variety: Long L and short MEG [5] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Investment Rating - The polyester industry shows stable growth, with potential for continued export - driven demand [154][155] Core View - Polyester production is growing steadily, and inventory levels are generally neutral to low [154][156] Supply - Polyester load has temporarily decreased but is expected to rebound; production in 2025 has increased year - on - year [149][155] Demand - Export demand is strong, with significant growth in various polyester product exports from January to September 2025 [155] Inventory - Overall inventory is neutral to low, and the operating resilience of filament production has increased [156] Strategy - Monitor the impact of upstream raw material prices and downstream demand on polyester production and sales

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Gasoline supply contraction leads to an expansion of gasoline profits, indirectly supporting PX prices. Russian crude oil supply has decreased due to sanctions, and the profit expansion of diesel and other products prompts refineries to prioritize the production of gasoline and diesel. PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Tight PX supply has widened the spread between PX and naphtha, while PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Although the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" have ended, export demand may improve under the easing of the China - US trade war. Recently, downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. New device commissions have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price, and the spot tightness caused by low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. The increase in coal prices has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The China - US trade negotiation has been reached, and the reduction of tariffs may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - INE crude oil price decreased from 461.8 yuan/barrel on November 10, 2025, to 458.8 yuan/barrel on November 11, 2025, a decrease of 3.00 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1348.1 yuan/ton to 1313.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.20 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4017 to 1.3941, a decrease of 0.0076 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 828 to 821, a decrease of 7; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 246 to 239, a decrease of 8 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4704 yuan/ton to 4648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4605 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 175.8 yuan/ton to 192.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.8 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 274.8 yuan/ton to 255.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 3953 yuan/ton to 3875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (149.62) yuan/ton to (149.81) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 4003 yuan/ton to 3981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.0 yuan/ton [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 88.03%, PTA开工率 remained at 76.31%, MEG开工率 remained at 63.74%, and polyester负荷 remained at 89.70% [2]. c. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150D/48F increased from 6555 to 6600, an increase of 45.0; POY现金流 increased from 27 to 83, an increase of 56.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F increased from 6770 to 6805, an increase of 35.0; FDY现金流 increased from (258) to (212), an increase of 46.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F increased from 7840 to 7860, an increase of 20.0; DTY现金流 increased from 112 to 143, an increase of 31.0 [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6415 to 6365, a decrease of 50; 涤短现金流 decreased from 237 to 198, a decrease of 39.0 [2]. - 半光切片 remained at 5595; 切片现金流 increased from (33) to (22), an increase of 11.0 [2]. d. Product Sales - 长丝产销 increased from 50% to 54%, an increase of 4% [2]. - 短纤产销 decreased from 66% to 41%, a decrease of 25% [2]. - 切片产销 decreased from 82% to 51%, a decrease of 31% [2]. e. Device Maintenance An East - China PTA device with a capacity of 2.2 million tons has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market rose due to rumors of potential maintenance of an East - China PX plant at the beginning of next year, pushing up the PTA price. Although the PTA processing fee was compressed again, the polyester start - up was stable, the polyester load remained above 90%, and domestic polyester exports were still optimistic. The current peak season is expected to last until November. For ethylene glycol, low port inventory and expected decline in overseas imports are offset by new device production pressure, and the coal price increase has not provided strong cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 463.7 yuan/barrel on November 5, 2025, to 460.4 yuan/barrel on November 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased by 111.98 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0361. PTA主力期价 rose from 4600 yuan/ton to 4688 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4505 yuan/ton to 4540 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 41.3 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee increased by 36.7 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased by 5909 [3]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 816 to 826, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 9 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 rose from 3914 yuan/ton to 3924 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread remained unchanged. The MEG domestic price decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 3 [3]. Industry Chain Start - up - PX, PTA, MEG start - up rates and polyester load all remained unchanged at 86.21%, 77.84%, 63.74%, and 89.56% respectively [3]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 29. FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 29. DTY150D/48F price increased by 5, and its cash flow decreased by 24. The long - filament sales rate increased from 52% to 70% [3]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 15, and its cash flow decreased by 14. The short - fiber sales rate increased from 38% to 70% [3]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price increased by 5, and its cash flow decreased by 24. The chip sales rate increased from 46% to 143% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 2.2 million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, with supply surplus, weak demand, and no new intensification in geopolitical situations, international crude oil is expected to run weakly. For PX, its load has recovered to a relatively high level, and with few maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, the rebound space for the PX - naphtha spread is limited [6]. - For PTA, multiple plants have maintenance expectations, so the supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Although there are expectations for new polyester plant launches, demand will gradually decline after the traditional peak season, and polyester monthly output will decline. With the weak outlook for crude oil, the seasonal weakness of PTA in the distant end is hard to change, and it is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in November [6]. - For ethylene glycol (MEG), with the weakness of international crude oil, the supply - demand situation is expected to lead to inventory accumulation. However, the inventory at the main ports is at a low level, so MEG may continue to be under pressure, and the industry will continue the high - level hedging strategy [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **1.1 Market Review**: In October, although the oil price dropped and cost support was weak, the downstream demand for PX showed a slight improvement. Terminal inventory - building enthusiasm increased, and the downstream was in the destocking stage. Coupled with the relatively low PX - naphtha spread at the end of September, the PX price rose slightly compared to the end of September. As of October 31, the closing price of Asian PX was 820.33 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 12 US dollars/ton from September 30, with a decline rate of 1.42% [12]. - **1.2 Maintenance and Restart**: In October, the Fuguidaohua 1.4 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and the Urumqi Petrochemical was under maintenance for about half a month. The PX industry's operating load reached 90.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4% [15]. - **1.3 Demand and Spread**: As of October 31, the PX - naphtha spread reached 239.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.75 US dollars/ton from September 30. With the continuous destocking of downstream PTA, good polyester sales, reduced inventory, and enhanced terminal restocking enthusiasm, the PX - naphtha spread was significantly repaired [18]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **2.1 Market Review**: Drag from both cost and supply - demand factors led to a downward shift in the PTA price center. In the second half of the month, positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks repaired market expectations for demand prospects, boosting market sentiment and causing the price to rebound from a low level. As of October 31, the PTA spot price was 4,510 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 71 [19]. - **2.2 Capacity Utilization**: In October, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.02%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.77%. In November, plants such as Dushan Energy, Honggang Petrochemical, Sichuan Energy Investment, Ineos, Yisheng Ningbo, and Hengli Petrochemical have maintenance plans, and PTA monthly output is expected to decline [23]. - **2.3 Processing Fee**: In October, new plants were under trial operation, and previously maintained plants restarted. The destocking amplitude of supply - demand decreased, and terminal performance was below expectations, causing the PTA processing fee to continue to weaken. The average monthly PTA processing fee in October was 145.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.06% [28]. - **2.4 Supply - Demand Inventory**: In November, with the expected significant increase in supply from new PTA plants, and with plants under maintenance and restarting, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [29]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **3.1 Market Review**: In October, the sharp decline in international oil prices dragged down the cost of ethylene glycol. Maintenance enterprises restarted one after another, and new production capacity was released. With stable imports, the overall supply increased significantly. Terminal orders were mediocre, and downstream polyester inventory remained high. The East China spot price dropped below 4,100 yuan/ton from 4,214 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly to around 4,150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. As of October 31, the closing price of MEG in Zhangjiagang was 4,111 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,210 yuan/ton [34]. - **3.2 Production Capacity Utilization**: In October, the domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was about 66.82%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of non - coal - based ethylene glycol was about 65.28%, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was about 69.42% [35]. - **3.3 Port Inventory**: As of October 30, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 49.9 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons from October 27. As of November 6, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 15 tons, including 6 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5 tons in Taicang, 2 tons in Ningbo, and 1.9 tons in Jiangyin [41]. - **3.4 Processing Profit**: With the increase in international oil prices, the cost - end support moved up. The domestic supply decreased briefly, and downstream polyester demand was stable. However, the supply - demand fundamentals were expected to be weak, and the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and consolidated. Currently, the sample profits of each process remain in a loss state. As of October 30, the naphtha profit dropped to - 116.86 US dollars/ton, and the integrated plants were still in a loss state, while the profits of other processes also maintained varying degrees of losses [44]. 4. Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - **4.1 Polyester Output**: In October, polyester output was 6.87 million tons, slightly higher than expected. The polyester production capacity base increased to 87.635 million tons, and the polyester capacity utilization rate was about 87.66%, also a slight increase compared to September [47]. - **4.2 Polyester Load**: In November, there are expectations for new plant launches, but as the traditional peak season ends, demand will gradually decline, and polyester monthly output will decline [49]. - **4.3 Polyester Product Inventory**: At the end of the month, downstream continued to replenish inventory, and the overall sales of polyester products increased. The finished - product inventory of polyester factories decreased in the latter part of the month [52]. - **4.4 Polyester Cash Flow**: With the increase in polymerization costs and limited increases in polyester filament prices, the cash flow of most models was compressed [57]. - **4.5 Weaving Industry**: As of October 30, the operating load of the weaving industry was 69%, a month - on - month increase of 2.55%. The average number of days for terminal weaving orders was 17.86 days, an increase of 2.18 days from the previous week. As the temperature drops, the market mainly focuses on winter orders for Double Eleven, but the export volume of stretch yarns has declined. Most manufacturers are cautious about November demand and are currently focusing on inventory digestion. If terminal orders cannot continue to increase, manufacturers may still reduce production to avoid risks [60].