钛媒体App 12月12日消息，美联储古尔斯比表示，美联储前期降息幅度过大，他认为美联储应该等待更 多信息，特别是有关通胀的数据。（广角观察） ...

美联储古尔斯比：政府关门前的一些通胀数据令人担忧。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee反对美联储降息的决定，原因是他希望等待更多经济数据。Goolsbee表 示，鉴于通胀已连续四年半高于目标水平，且近期几个月进展停滞，几乎所有与他交流过的企业和消费 者都将价格视为主要担忧，他认为更为审慎的做法是等待更多信息。Goolsbee仍对未来一年降息持乐观 态度，但近期的通胀数据让他对近期降息更加谨慎。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to consolidate in the short term, with a trading range due to both upward and downward pressures. In the medium to long term, the policy environment is conducive to a bullish outlook for Treasury bond futures, but short - term upward momentum is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, and TS is "weak", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded with fluctuations yesterday. The latest inflation data has rebounded but remains weak, and the liquidity of the capital market is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased the expectation of monetary easing policy space, leading to a strong performance of Treasury bond futures this week. In the medium to long term, the monetary policy environment tends to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is insufficient need for a short - term interest rate cut, and the concentrated supply of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring some pressure, limiting the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the improvement in inflation data for November, highlighting the trends in CPI and PPI, and outlines key macroeconomic price clues for the upcoming year [2][4][9]. Group 1: November Inflation Data - CPI year-on-year increased from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations, while core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022 [2][9]. - PPI year-on-year decreased from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%, indicating a continued decline influenced by high base effects [2][9]. - The GDP deflator for November is estimated at around -0.4%, slightly better than the previous month's estimate of -0.5% [2][9]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing CPI - The significant rise in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which increased by 0.5% month-on-month, contrasting with a decline of -2.7% in the same month last year [2][9]. - Seasonal factors have positively impacted fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather conditions affecting production and transportation [2][9]. - Core CPI's stability is attributed to the continuous rise in medical service prices, which have increased for eight consecutive months, and the impact of rising gold prices [2][9]. Group 3: PPI Trends - PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month for two consecutive months, driven by seasonal demand in coal and gas industries [3][30]. - The input factors have led to a decline in domestic oil-related industry prices while prices in the non-ferrous sector have risen [3][30]. - The equipment manufacturing sector shows signs of marginal improvement, with computer and communication electronics prices rising by 0.1% [3][30]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Price Clues for Next Year - CPI is expected to show a confirmed upward trend next year, with projections indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.7% [4][10]. - PPI is also anticipated to recover, although the timing for a positive shift remains uncertain, with a projected year-on-year average of -1.4% [4][10]. - The improvement in the supply-demand relationship in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector is crucial for stabilizing PPI [4][15]. Group 5: Potential Risks and Opportunities - The potential upward risk for CPI includes improvements in service sector price increases, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand to service consumption [5][12]. - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector's supply-demand dynamics are critical, as historical patterns suggest a lag of 6-7 quarters before PPI prices stabilize after supply growth falls below demand growth [4][15].

Macroeconomic Insights - November inflation data shows CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, meeting expectations, while month-on-month decreased by 0.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year. PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected -2%, but increased by 0.1% month-on-month [5][7]. - The IMF projects China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 [7]. - The bond market continued its recovery, with long-term government bonds showing significant improvement. The main contract for 30-year government bonds rose by 0.3% [7]. Equity Market Analysis - The market exhibited a rebound after a dip, indicating strong support at lower levels. The computing hardware sector was pivotal in driving the index's recovery, and its core stocks will be crucial for future observations [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce's promotion of the "Fat Donglai model" focuses on the lower-tier market, indicating a shift in retail competition towards refined operations, personalized services, and deep digital integration for high-quality development [10]. - Hainan's free trade port's full island closure and its 14th Five-Year Plan mark a new phase of higher-level openness. Short-term investment prospects include consumer return and policy benefits, while medium-term focuses on modern service industries and unique industrial clusters [10].

今日焦点 挪威即将发布区域经济调查报告。我们预计该报告将证实经济增长仍以温和步伐持续提升，产能利用率基本持平，并表明当前经济活动水平略低于正常水 平。具体而言，我们预计受访者将预测下季度增长0.3-0.4%，产能利用率维持在35%不变，面临劳动力短缺的企业比例将从25%降至24%。 瑞典将公布11月通胀最终数据。初步数据表现低于预期：CPI同比涨幅0.3%，CPIF同比涨幅2.3%，CPIF（不含能源）同比涨幅2.4%。鉴于初步估算通常具有 可靠性，数据大幅修正的可能性较低。深入分析细节以探究意外波动背后的因素将颇具意义，特别是需厘清低位表现究竟源于季节性波动还是其他深层原 因。 央行动态方面，焦点转向瑞士央行，我们预测其利率将维持在0.00%不变。土耳其央行亦将公布利率决议。 昨日要闻 美国联邦储备委员会昨晚如市场普遍预期，将政策利率目标下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%。米兰投票支持更大规模的50个基点降息，施密德和古尔斯比则持 反对意见主张维持利率不变，这与我们的预期一致。我们（及市场）原预期鲍威尔将反驳市场对2026年进一步降息的定价预期。然而，他在记者会上回避强 硬的前瞻指引，导致美国国债收益率 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货短期内震荡整理为主 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡反弹。最新公布的通胀数据有所回升但表现仍较 弱，资金面流动性宽松，叠加美联储 12 月如期降息带动货币宽松政策空间 预期上升，本周以来国债期货震荡偏强。中长期来看，货币政策环境倾向于 宽松，国债期货的支撑力量较强。不过短期内降息的必要性有所不足，且明 年一季度国债集中供应带来一定压力，短期内国债期货上行动能有所不足。 总的来说，国债期货上有压力下有支撑，短期内以震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 ...

Inflation Data Overview - November CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, meeting expectations[1] - November PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the previous month's -2.1% and expectations of -2%[1] CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by structural factors, including a low base effect and reduced supply in certain food categories, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, which saw increases of 21.8% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Pork prices, significantly affected by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a year-on-year CPI of -15%[2] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year[3] - Excluding gold, core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, indicating weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions[3] PPI Dynamics - PPI showed a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month, with coal prices rising by 9.5% month-on-month due to anti-involution effects, contributing 0.3% to PPI[4] - However, lower prices in steel and oil negatively impacted PPI, leading to a net decrease of 0.2%[4] Future Outlook - Commodity prices may continue to rise, but the impact on downstream prices from anti-involution trends is expected to be gradual, with PPI projected to stabilize at -2.1% in December and recover slowly in 2026[5] - CPI is anticipated to see a mild recovery, supported by rising PPI and pork prices, but constrained by slowing gold price increases and subsidy reductions, with a year-end CPI forecast of around 0.6%[5]

Inflation Data Overview - November CPI increased to 0.7% YoY, up from 0.2% in the previous month, and in line with expectations, while MoM decreased by 0.1%[1][7] - PPI fell to -2.2% YoY, slightly worse than the previous month's -2.1% and worse than the expected -2%, with a MoM increase of 0.1%[1][7] CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by structural factors, with food prices contributing significantly; food CPI rose 3.1 percentage points to 0.2% YoY[2][8] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw YoY CPI increases of 21.8% and 2.7%, respectively, reaching 14.5% and 0.7%[2][8] - Pork prices, heavily influenced by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a YoY CPI of -15%[2][8] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% YoY[3][16] - Excluding gold, core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, indicating weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions[3][16] PPI Dynamics - PPI was influenced by rising coal prices (up 9.5% MoM) and copper prices, contributing positively to PPI, while steel and oil prices declined, negatively impacting PPI[4][25] - The overall PPI was constrained by weak downstream price transmission, with a MoM increase of 0.1%[4][25] Future Outlook - Commodity prices may rise further, but the impact on downstream prices is expected to be gradual, with PPI projected to stabilize at -2.1% in December and recover slowly in 2026[4][26] - CPI is anticipated to see moderate recovery, supported by rising PPI and pork prices, but constrained by slowing gold price increases and subsidy reductions[4][29]