Core Viewpoint - The "affordability crisis" in the U.S. has escalated into a major concern for the White House, highlighting a systemic challenge where rising living costs outpace household income, despite official inflation data showing some relief [1]. Inflation Data and Public Sentiment - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in December 2025, with core CPI increasing by 2.6% year-on-year [2]. - Despite a slight easing in macro inflation, the daily financial burdens on American households remain significant, as public sensitivity to price levels is much higher than to changes in inflation rates [2][3]. Political Implications - The affordability crisis is becoming a central issue for the 2026 midterm elections, with voters prioritizing living costs, high taxes, and economic concerns in key states [4]. - The Trump administration's use of tariffs may exacerbate the affordability crisis, as proposed tariffs could increase prices on various imported goods, potentially leading to political backlash [6]. Policy Contradictions - The administration's mixed signals regarding tariffs—threatening new tariffs while delaying others—indicate an awareness of the negative impact of tariff policies on consumer prices [6]. - Economic experts warn that inflation may rebound in early 2026 as companies adjust pricing strategies, potentially passing on previously absorbed cost pressures to consumers [6]. Disconnect Between Macro Indicators and Household Reality - There is a systemic disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and the financial realities faced by households, as policymakers often overlook the lasting impacts of economic shocks on family budgets [7][9]. - Surveys indicate that many American families do not expect prices to return to pre-crisis levels, with a significant portion of respondents acknowledging that tariffs have raised prices and opting for cheaper alternatives [10].

Market Performance - Emerging markets continued to rise, with MSCI Global up by 1.9%, MSCI Developed up by 1.3%, and MSCI Emerging up by 6.8% during the week [9][12] - In the developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 17.2%, while the Nasdaq Index was the weakest, declining by 0.3% [9] - Among emerging markets, the Hang Seng Index performed best with a 4.0% increase, while the Indian Sensex30 was the worst performer, down by 1.7% [9] Trading Sentiment - Trading sentiment in the Chinese stock market increased significantly, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing substantial volume growth, while US stocks saw a slight increase in volume [24] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks fell to 12.9%, below the three-year average of 12%, indicating a high level of investor sentiment [24][27] - North American investment sentiment remains at historical highs, with the NAAIM Manager Exposure Index decreasing to 96% [24][27] Fund Flows - The new Federal Reserve chairperson's selection remains uncertain, impacting market expectations for interest rate cuts [56] - As of January 16, market expectations for the Fed to cut rates in 2026 decreased slightly to 1.8 times [56] - Global liquidity showed signs of tightening, with significant inflows into mainland China, the US, South Korea, India, and Europe [64] Earnings Expectations - US earnings expectations were revised upward, particularly in the financial sector, with the S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast increased from +10.3% to +10.4% [68] - In contrast, the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast was downgraded from -1.8% to -1.9%, with the utilities sector seeing the largest upward revision [68][69] - European earnings expectations remained stable, while Japanese earnings expectations were revised downward from +31.0% to +29.4% [69]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.29%, Nasdaq down 0.66%, and S&P 500 down 0.38% for the week [3] - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.09%, Germany's DAX 30 up 0.14%, and France's CAC 40 down 1.23% [3] Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. economic data includes GDP, PCE inflation, and consumer confidence index, which are crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4] - The PCE inflation data for November is set to be released, which is a key indicator for the Fed [4] - The U.S. third-quarter GDP revision is expected to show a growth rate of 4.3%, which may impact market expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] Earnings Season - The second week of the U.S. earnings season will feature major companies like Netflix and Intel, along with other industry leaders such as Johnson & Johnson and Abbott [5] Oil and Gold Markets - Oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive week, with WTI crude up 0.54% to $59.44 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Iran [7] - Gold futures increased by 2.18% to $4588.40 per ounce, while silver futures surged by 11.69% to $88.09 per ounce, amid geopolitical tensions and market volatility [8] European Economic Outlook - The Eurozone's economic growth prospects remain a key focus, particularly with fiscal stimulus from Germany [10] - The European Central Bank's upcoming meeting minutes will be scrutinized for any discussions on future interest rate hikes [10] - Key macroeconomic data releases include the ZEW economic sentiment index and manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone [10]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to decline, with spot gold prices dropping to around $4605 per ounce, primarily due to stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data and a rising U.S. dollar index, which has dampened investor expectations for short-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 for the week ending January 10, below the market expectation of 215,000 and down from the revised previous value of 207,000, indicating a resilient labor market that supports the U.S. dollar [2]. - Market expectations for Federal Reserve action in the first half of the year have become more cautious, with the dollar index reaching multi-week highs, which has exerted significant pressure on gold prices [2]. - A temporary easing of geopolitical tensions has also diminished gold's traditional appeal as a safe-haven asset, as concerns over escalating Middle East tensions have subsided, leading to a withdrawal of some safe-haven funds [2]. Latest Spot Gold Market Analysis - Technical analysis indicates that gold faced significant resistance around the $4650 level, leading to a downward shift in price momentum, with the market entering an adjustment phase [3]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover at high levels, with a reduction in upward momentum, while the RSI has retreated from overbought territory to neutral, reflecting a cooling of market enthusiasm [3]. - The Bollinger Bands indicate that gold prices have retracted from the upper band to the middle band, suggesting a potential decrease in volatility [3]. - A critical support level is identified at $4580, which is close to the 20-day moving average; a break below this level could target the $4520-$4500 range [3]. - For upward movement, gold prices need to regain stability above $4650 to alleviate short-term pressure, with the current market showing signs of a consolidation phase rather than a strong bullish trend [3]. - The recent price correction is attributed to the dual factors of a strengthening dollar and a decrease in safe-haven sentiment, rather than a fundamental deterioration in demand [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current international gold price is rising steadily, while the silver price is rising rapidly with significantly increased volatility, reflecting the setback of the Fed's independence and the supply - demand imbalance in the physical market. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, as opening new long or short positions involves high risks. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 980 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 19050 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.04% to 1035.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.40% to 23089.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4620.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 92.21 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.17%, and the US dollar index was 99.35 [2] - Trump announced not to impose tariffs on key metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium for the time being. In the short term, US silver inventories will further flow out. COMEX silver inventories decreased by 509 tons from 13989.5 tons at the beginning of this year to 13479 tons on January 15. The one - month spot lease rate dropped to 4% yesterday, alleviating the expectation of tight overseas spot supply. However, the outflow of New York silver inventories cannot change the structural shortage of silver. India's single - month imports in October last year exceeded 1700 tons, and it has greater import potential in the first quarter of this year due to new mortgage regulations [2] - Inflation data declined, supporting the market's expectation of the Fed's easing this year. The US CPI data was lower than expected. The year - on - year value of the US December CPI was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The year - on - year value of the US December core CPI was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% and the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [3] 2. Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract was 4620.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.29%; the trading volume was 22.32 million lots, down 23.12%; the CFTC - reported open interest was 48.81 million lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1124 tons, down 0.23%. The closing price of LBMA gold was 4610.85 dollars/ounce, up 0.09%. The closing price of the active SHFE gold contract was 1035.20 yuan/gram, down 0.52%; the trading volume was 39.29 million lots, down 2.23%; the open interest was 34.88 million lots, up 0.07%; the inventory was 100.15 tons, unchanged. The settled funds were 57.768 billion yuan, down 0.45%. The closing price of AuT + D was 1033.92 yuan/gram, down 0.36%; the trading volume was 45.45 tons, down 31.36%; the open interest was 186.24 tons, down 2.40% [6] - Silver: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract was 92.21 dollars/ounce, down 1.05%; the CFTC - reported open interest was 15.32 million lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13480 tons, down 0.23%. The closing price of LBMA silver was 91.27 dollars/ounce, up 0.19%. The closing price of the active SHFE silver contract was 22665.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.43%; the trading volume was 311.70 million lots, up 14.39%; the open interest was 74.36 million lots, up 0.69%; the inventory was 638.40 tons, up 1.54%. The settled funds were 45.504 billion yuan, up 0.25%. The closing price of AgT + D was 22684.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.36%; the trading volume was 657.20 tons, down 19.09%; the open interest was 3125.288 tons, up 1.47% [6] 3. Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and actual interest rate, the relationship between SHFE gold price and trading volume, etc. [8][11][12][16][26][29][30][31] 4. Near - and Far - Month Structures and Spreads - There are charts and data showing the near - and far - month structures of COMEX gold and silver, as well as the spreads between different markets such as SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA for gold and silver [21][22][34][37][39][48]

Core Insights - The latest U.S. inflation data shows stable price pressures at the end of last year, with a key indicator falling below expectations, leading to increased speculation in financial markets about the Federal Reserve potentially initiating interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated [1][7]. Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-over-year increase was 2.7%, also meeting forecasts [3]. - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, with a notable decline in egg prices, which fell by 8.2% month-over-month [3]. - Energy prices saw a slight increase of 0.3% month-over-month [3]. - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, showed a more moderate trend, with the core CPI rising by only 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, both figures being 0.1 percentage points lower than analyst predictions [3][7]. Housing Costs Impact - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the index weight, remain a significant driver of inflation, increasing by 0.4% month-over-month and maintaining a year-over-year increase of 3.2% [7]. - Following the stable report, traders adjusted their expectations for monetary policy, with the probability of the Federal Reserve deciding to cut rates in April rising to approximately 42%, up from about 38% prior to the data release [7]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current situation is not unprecedented, as inflation has not accelerated again, but the process of returning to target levels appears to be stalled [7]. - The report may not provide the Federal Reserve with sufficient confidence to take immediate action on rate cuts [7]. - Caution is advised in interpreting the data due to potential distortions from the government shutdown last year, which interrupted data collection [9]. - Future employment market and wage growth data will be critical factors influencing policymakers' decisions [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the unexpected drop in the core CPI to 2.6% in December signals a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a surge in risk assets, particularly Bitcoin [1][2][4] - The overall CPI remained flat at 2.7%, while the core CPI decreased from 2.6% to 2.6%, which was below market expectations of 2.7%. This indicates a shift in inflation pressure from broad-based to structural, especially in the service sector [2][4] - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in March increased from 48% to 65%, and the dollar index dropped by 0.5%, while non-USD assets like gold and Bitcoin rose [4] Group 2 - Bitcoin briefly surged past $96,500, driven by both technical and funding factors. Prior to the CPI announcement, Bitcoin was consolidating between $92,000 and $94,000, forming a "cup and handle" pattern [5][7] - Institutional inflows have been a key driver of Bitcoin's recent price increase, with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust seeing over $1.5 billion in net inflows in January, and Bitcoin ETF trading volumes exceeding $5 billion in a single day [7] - The breakthrough at $96,500 is significant as it was a key resistance level, and further upward movement could lead to a challenge of the psychological $100,000 mark [7][10] Group 3 - Looking ahead, for Bitcoin to surpass $100,000, three conditions must be met: clear signals of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, continued institutional inflows with spot ETF holdings exceeding 1.2 million, and stable network hash rates to avoid miner sell-offs [8][10] - Historically, Bitcoin bull markets tend to peak 6-9 months after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, suggesting potential for Bitcoin to challenge $120,000 by Q2 2025 if rate cuts occur in March [10] - The relationship between the drop in core CPI and Bitcoin's surge reflects a broader narrative of traditional financial policy shifts and the challenge posed by the crypto economy to monetary sovereignty [10]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is strong. Due to the US inflation data in December being lower than expected, and continuous geopolitical and economic uncertainties driving the safe - haven demand, gold and silver continue to be in a strong position. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying, and it is recommended that long - position holders continue to hold their positions while paying attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 0.76% to $4,633.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.93% to $93.19 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.46% to 1,039.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.40% to 23,270.0 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2. Important Information - As of January 14th, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1,074.23 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 78.94 tons from the previous day to 16,242.22 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 72.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [1]. - US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.5%. The producer price index in November increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with the forecast, and increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the forecast of 2.7% [1]. - On January 14th, a US official said that due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, the US was evacuating some personnel from major US military bases as a preventive measure. Some US military personnel stationed at the Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar were advised to evacuate before the evening of the 14th. The US embassy in Qatar had not responded to this news, and many countries urged their citizens to leave Iran [1]. - On January 14th, the US Supreme Court did not rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs. The latest Fed Beige Book showed that the economy is moderately warming up, employment is stable, and tariff costs are starting to be passed on to consumers [1]. 3.3. Market Logic - The US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.5%. The CPI data in December showed stable inflation, and the core CPI was slightly lower than the market expectation. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is almost zero. The CME changed the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts on January 12th, which may trigger frequent margin calls during high - price or high - volatility periods. The weakening of the US dollar index on January 14th, along with safe - haven demand, led to the rise of COMEX gold and silver [1][2]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying. Long - position holders are advised to continue holding their positions and pay attention to risk control [2].

Group 1 - Bitcoin surged past the $95,000 mark influenced by CPI data, indicating a consensus leaning towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The overall cryptocurrency market experienced a mild rebound, with a total market capitalization increase of 0.75% to approximately $3.13 trillion, and a 24-hour price increase of about 4.52% [1] - Ethereum (ETH) showed strong performance with a price increase of approximately 7.46%, benefiting from a recovery in on-chain activity [3] Group 2 - Institutional ETF inflows were robust, with Bitcoin ETF net inflows reaching $753 million, although macroeconomic uncertainties limited further price increases [3] - Ethereum's on-chain transaction volume grew by 6.8% to 2.05 million transactions, with accelerated adoption in DeFi and Real World Assets (RWA) [3] - JPMorgan predicts that Ethereum could surpass Bitcoin by 2026, with price forecasts ranging from $4,500 to $7,000, and an optimistic scenario suggesting a price of $11,000 [3]

Group 1 - President Trump praised the low inflation data for December and urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to implement significant interest rate cuts [1] - Trump announced the cancellation of all meetings with Iranian officials and expressed support for the Iranian citizens protesting against their government, threatening strong actions if the Iranian regime executes protesters [1] - Trump participated in a meeting regarding the situation in Iran, indicating he is aware of potential responses but has not made any decisions yet [1] Group 2 - In a speech in Michigan, Trump claimed that his policies have successfully avoided stagflation and achieved "super-fast growth," while announcing plans to introduce policies aimed at reducing housing, healthcare, and energy costs [2] - During a visit to a Ford factory, Trump dismissed the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement as "not really beneficial," stating that the US does not need goods manufactured in Canada or Mexico [2] - Trump responded to criticism from JPMorgan CEO regarding the investigation into Powell, asserting that his actions are justified and criticizing the current Federal Reserve leadership [2] Group 3 - Trump announced plans to cut federal funding to "sanctuary cities" that oppose the deportation of illegal immigrants as part of government efforts to combat fraud [3]