Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4] - The report highlights that the U.S. may impose a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, which could disrupt global copper inventory flows [1][4] - Domestic copper inventory levels are at a near six-year low, indicating potential supply constraints [30] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 12% [2] - As of July 11, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 646,000 tons, down 3.1% from the previous week [2] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 403,000 tons as of July 7, 2025, reflecting a 5.6% increase [2] Supply - The TC spot price remains low at -43 USD/ton, indicating challenging conditions for smelting profitability [3][59] - China's electrolytic copper production in June 2025 was 1.1349 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% month-on-month but a 12.9% increase year-on-year [3][63] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has decreased by 836 RMB/ton, suggesting tighter scrap supply [54] Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a potential uptick in demand [3][73] - Domestic air conditioning production is projected to decline, with year-on-year reductions of 12.8% expected in September [92] - The report notes that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 13% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 18% [4][33] - As of July 11, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 179,000 lots, reflecting a significant decrease [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Wanguo Resources [4]

Group 1 - Barrick Mining Corp's CEO Mark Bristow expressed optimism about the long-term prospects of copper despite short-term price volatility due to a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. starting August 1 [1][2] - The new tariff is expected to impact copper prices, with COMEX copper futures reaching historical highs following the announcement [1] - Analysts predict that countries like Chile, the largest copper producer and supplier to the U.S., may shift supply to mitigate the effects of the tariffs, potentially affecting copper prices outside the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Barrick Mining Corp is the second-largest gold producer globally and is currently investing to increase its copper production [2] - The company has committed to a $2 billion plan to double the annual output of its Lumwana copper mine in Zambia to 240,000 tons by 2028 and extend the mine's lifespan to 2057 [2] - Bristow noted that most of the copper mining industry is only considering marginal expansions, but Barrick is proactively investing before supply tightens [2]

Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of President Trump's announcement on July 9, 2025, regarding a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective from August 1, 2025, leading to a significant rise in COMEX copper prices and the COMEX/LME copper price ratio [3][6][12] - The report highlights the historical context of copper tariffs and their effects on prices, noting that the COMEX copper price and the COMEX/LME copper price ratio have moved in tandem since early 2025 [12][13] - The report anticipates a tightening of global copper supply in the second half of 2025, driven by reduced production from both domestic and international smelting companies, while demand remains resilient despite being weaker than the previous year [29][30][35] Market Dynamics - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper prices surged, while LME and SHFE copper prices declined, indicating a shift in inventory dynamics and local consumption patterns [14][20] - The report notes that COMEX copper inventories have reached seasonal highs, while LME and SHFE inventories are at seasonal lows, suggesting potential pressure on LME and SHFE prices if the tariffs are implemented [20][21][22] - The LME copper market is characterized by a high backwardation structure, providing a cushion against price declines due to low inventories [26] Supply and Demand Outlook - The report projects that global copper supply will tighten in the latter half of 2025, with a slowdown in copper mine supply growth and continued increases in domestic refined copper production [29][30] - Domestic demand for copper is expected to remain cautious, particularly in the power sector, while overseas demand may improve due to infrastructure initiatives in the U.S. and a recovery in Europe [35][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring potential production cuts among Chinese smelting companies, which could significantly influence market dynamics [30] Economic Implications - The report outlines the potential impact of rising copper prices on U.S. manufacturing costs, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures [42][50] - It highlights the heavy reliance of the U.S. on imported refined copper, with a projected supply gap of 43% of annual consumption in 2024, primarily sourced from Chile, Canada, and Peru [44][46] - The report discusses the broader implications for copper-producing countries, including potential shifts in global trade flows and the dual impact on China as both a beneficiary and a competitor in the refined copper market [52]

华泰证券研报称，7月8日，美国商务部长卢特尼克宣布特朗普将对铜加征50%的关税，政策预计于7月 下旬或者8月1日实施。由于距离关税实施较短，判断"抢运"行情基本结束；7月下旬或者8月1日正式加 征50%关税后，消失的出口需求+铜7—8月传统淡季，非美地区供需紧张的格局或逆转，判断短期 LME/SHFE铜价或回调但幅度有限。坚定看好铜价上行趋势，此次回调或是配置良机。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. by President Trump has led to a significant initial spike in copper prices, followed by a notable decline, indicating market volatility and concerns over potential demand suppression due to increased tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - COMEX copper prices surged nearly 10% before experiencing a drop of over 2% following the tariff announcement, reflecting market uncertainty and the potential impact on demand [2]. - High U.S. copper inventories are raising concerns that the tariffs could exacerbate inventory surpluses, leading to further price adjustments [1][2]. - The strong U.S. dollar and the lack of macroeconomic support for the recent price surge are contributing to the downward pressure on copper prices [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current tight supply of copper, coupled with low inventory levels, is expected to provide some support for copper prices despite the tariff-induced volatility [4]. - The price differential between U.S. and European copper futures has widened significantly, indicating a shift in trade flows and potential supply constraints in non-U.S. markets [3]. - The expectation of increased copper premiums in China suggests that domestic prices may exhibit resilience against downward pressures from tariffs [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring the potential for unexpected economic data or policy changes that could mitigate the downward pressure on copper prices from tariffs [5]. - The ongoing tightness in global copper supply, particularly from overseas mines and scrap copper, is likely to support prices in the medium term, despite the initial impact of tariffs [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货79850，基差580，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：7月7日铜库存增2125至97400吨，上期所铜库存较上周增3039吨至84589吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 现货 地方 中间价 涨跌 库存 类型 总量（吨） 增减 昨日上 海 仓单 今日上 海 LME库存 （日 ...

Core Insights - Copper prices have experienced a slight pullback, influenced by policy, trade dynamics, and supply-demand factors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in copper prices are attributed to ongoing negotiations and adjustments in trade policies [1] - Supply and demand factors are playing a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of copper prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring how these various factors will influence copper prices moving forward [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Short - term copper prices are expected to run weakly. Although supply tightness supports copper prices due to concerns about Trump's tariff policy implementation and low processing fees, high prices suppress downstream demand, and previous positive factors are weakening, resulting in upward pressure on copper prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. In the first half of the week, it continued the previous week's upward trend. After the release of strong US employment data on Thursday and Trump's passage of the "big and beautiful" bill, the US dollar index rose, and copper prices fell from a high on Friday. The closing price on Friday was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of about - 0.2% compared with the previous week [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Processing fees remain in the negative range. After the copper price exceeded 80,000 yuan/ton, many refined copper rod enterprises reduced production or stopped production to reduce inventory, causing the weekly operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to drop to 63.74%, a decrease of 10.27% from the previous period and 9.74% lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 67.81%, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous period and 13.55% from the same period last year [3]. - Affected by the traditional off - season and high copper prices, new orders weakened, and enterprises mainly relied on previous orders. The finished product inventory decreased by 2.33% to 19,670 tons. Except for the relatively stable power industry, demand in other industries was generally suppressed by high copper prices [3]. - As some enterprises' finished product inventories have reached a low level, the operating rate is expected to rise to 71.56% driven by resumption of production. As of July 3, the copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas increased by 0.57 million tons to 13.18 million tons compared with Monday and increased by 0.17 million tons compared with the previous Thursday [3]. 3.3 Macro - economy - The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, which led to a significant decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and a rise in the US dollar. The US House of Representatives passed Trump's bill to significantly cut taxes and increase government spending, which may increase inflationary pressure, putting upward pressure on copper prices [3]. - Trump stated that countries will pay reciprocal tariffs starting from August 1, with tariff rates possibly ranging from 10% to 20% or from 60% to 70% [3].

Core Insights - Copper prices for both London and Shanghai futures have declined, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - Copper inventories have increased for four consecutive days, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [1] - Upcoming announcements from Trump regarding trade policies may significantly impact future copper price movements [1] Group 1 - The decline in copper prices reflects broader market concerns and potential shifts in demand [1] - The continuous rise in copper inventories could lead to further price pressure if the trend persists [1] - The market is closely monitoring trade policy developments, which could introduce volatility in copper prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights a continued weakening in demand, particularly in the cable sector, with risks of further declines in production rates for air conditioning units [1][3]. - The report notes that the short-term risk of warehouse squeezing remains, suggesting that copper prices may continue to show strength before returning to a more volatile state [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Production**: In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month but an increase of 12.9% year-on-year [3][65]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 67.81% as of July 3, 2025 [3][75]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 1.3%, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.1% [2][24]. Raw Material Insights - **Copper Concentrate**: Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 666,000 tons, up 6.8% week-on-week as of July 4, 2025 [2][49]. - **Scrap Copper**: The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 260 RMB/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap copper [2][54]. Futures Market Overview - The active contract position for SHFE copper increased by 1.3% week-on-week, with a total position of 216,000 lots as of July 4, 2025 [4][33]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - **Western Mining**: Stock price at 17.10 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 1.67 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 10 [5]. - **Zijin Mining**: Stock price at 20.05 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 1.60 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 13 [5]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum**: Stock price at 8.54 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 0.62 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 14 [5]. - **Jincheng Mining**: Stock price at 45.42 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 3.61 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 13 [5].