Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that short-term trade conflicts are suppressing copper prices, but there is an optimistic outlook for copper price increases in the future due to supply constraints and recovering demand [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - On October 10, Trump announced a 100% new tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, which may exert pressure on copper prices [4]. Supply and Demand - Freeport is reducing copper production for 2025-2026, leading to sustained supply tightness. Demand from downstream sectors like air conditioning is expected to improve in Q4, which may support copper price increases [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 18.7% compared to September 29, while LME copper inventory decreased by 0.1% [5]. - As of October 10, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 660,000 tons, up 3.5% week-on-week [5]. Production and Processing - In July 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year. Global copper concentrate production was 2.012 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month [6]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year [7]. Demand Trends - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a decrease in operating rate by 6.91 percentage points to 58.53% as of October 9 [8]. - Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 18%, 15%, and 9% for the months of October to December [8]. Futures Market - As of October 10, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts decreased by 5.6% week-on-week, with a total of 216,000 contracts [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for copper prices to rise in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the recent trade conflicts have temporarily suppressed copper prices, but a recovery is expected as downstream demand rebounds in Q4 [1][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.3% month-on-month to 1.121 million tons, while year-on-year it increased by 11.6% [3][68]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate fell by 6.9 percentage points to 58.53% [3][76]. The report notes that air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 18%, 15%, and 9% for October, November, and December respectively [3][96]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 18.7% compared to September 29, 2025, while LME copper inventory decreased by 0.1% [2][24]. Price and Futures Summary - **Copper Prices**: As of October 10, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 85,910 RMB/ton, up 3.37% from September 30, while LME copper closed at 10,374 USD/ton, down 3.05% from October 3 [1][17]. - **Futures**: The active SHFE copper contract's open interest decreased by 5.6% week-on-week, with a total of 216,000 contracts [4][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have been rising since early April, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the past six months, currently trading at $10,727.50 per ton on LME. UBS forecasts further upward potential for copper prices driven by supply-side factors, predicting a range of $10,000 to $11,500 per ton in the coming quarters [1][4]. Supply Factors - UBS highlights multiple supply disruptions, notably Freeport-McMoRan's temporary halt of operations at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a landslide, which is expected to significantly impact production until 2027. The company has lowered its 2026 production guidance for Grasberg by 35%, equating to a reduction of approximately 270,000 tons of copper [4]. - Other major copper mines have also faced challenges, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which revised its 2025 production guidance down from 520,000-580,000 tons to 370,000-420,000 tons due to seismic events. Additionally, the El Teniente mine in Chile has reduced its output by 300,000 tons, approximately 11% lower than previous expectations [4]. - Current spot refining and smelting charges (TCRC) remain at historical lows, coupled with expectations of an impending Federal Reserve rate cut and a weaker dollar, contributing to copper prices exceeding $10,600 per ton. UBS anticipates supply growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 [4]. Demand Factors - China continues to be the primary driver of global copper demand, with significant contributions from the electric vehicle, renewable energy, and home appliance sectors. Refined copper production and copper concentrate imports from China have increased this year, while traditional demand from Europe and the U.S. remains weak [5]. - UBS maintains its demand forecasts, projecting refined copper demand growth of 2.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, leading to supply deficits of 53,000 tons and 87,000 tons in those respective years [5]. Investment Perspective - UBS favors a volatility selling strategy, particularly selling downside risk in copper prices to enhance returns, which is seen as attractive in the short term amid anticipated macroeconomic headwinds. However, the firm remains bullish on copper prices in the long term, preferring to hold long positions directly [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Short - term copper prices are on a strong upward trend driven by events and capital speculation. Although the spot market is weak at home and strong abroad, the inflow of global funds into the copper market is expected to continue the short - term upward trend of copper prices [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Shanghai copper opened high and moved high. The expected decline in production at the mine and smelting ends is being consolidated, and the supply - side pressure is easing, attracting global capital attention. The positions of LME, COMEX, and Shanghai copper are rising significantly, and the net long positions of CFTC and COTR funds are also increasing. However, the spot market is slightly weak, with the premium of Shanghai copper spot remaining flat at 15, and the downstream buying sentiment declining. The domestic social inventory increased by 18,000 tons during the holiday, and the positive structure of the near - month contract on the disk is expanding, so the spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure has narrowed to 29.5, LME inventory has dropped to 139,000 tons, and COMEX inventory has increased to 304,000 tons, and the spot pressure in the overseas market is easing [7][10] Group 5: Industry News - Japan's PPC expects its copper production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to decrease by 2.5% year - on - year to 287,400 tons, and Mitsubishi Materials Corporation will reduce the concentrate processing volume of its Onahama smelter by about 25%, which means a reduction of about 75,000 ore tons in the second half of the fiscal year [11] - Aurubis has raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $315 per ton, a record high [11] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine has extended its suspension due to a tailings dam heightening project. The 2025 copper production guidance has been lowered from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons, and the 2026 forecast production has been reduced from 280,000 - 310,000 tons to 200,000 - 235,000 tons. The optimization project to increase the processing capacity by 5% - 10% will be postponed to after 2027 - 2028. Highland Valley Copper has also lowered its 2025 copper production guidance from 135,000 - 150,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons due to grade decline and maintenance needs [11][12]

Report Title - "Industrial Macroeconomics Favors Copper Prices, Focus on Domestic Policies - October Copper Monthly Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, copper prices showed a strong trend with a monthly increase of 4.96%. As of September 30, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 83,350 yuan/ton. With potential domestic policies in October and current mine - end disturbances and macro - level positives, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly [5]. - Technically, the operating center of Shanghai copper has been continuously rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough trend [83]. - Considering macro and fundamental factors, copper prices are expected to remain high in October, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [89][90]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, Shanghai copper prices were strong. At the beginning of the month, the domestic macro - environment was warm, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut due to the cooling of the US employment market and in - line CPI boosted copper prices. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, copper prices slightly corrected. Supply disruptions from the Freeport Indonesia mining area and shortages in copper concentrates, along with reduced refined copper production in September and low inventories, supported copper prices [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomics - In the US, the August CPI showed a slight increase, and inflation pressure remained. The slowdown in employment led the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The September non - farm data has not been released, and the ADP employment data declined, indicating a weak employment market [9][12]. - The US manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service industry was stagnant. The US dollar index weakened due to the interest rate cut, and Treasury yields rose significantly [14]. Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, the CPI turned negative in August, and the PPI showed improvement. The social financing scale increased year - on - year, and local government special bond issuance was front - loaded in 2025 [16]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI improved, and the overall economy maintained an expansion trend. Fixed - asset investment and industrial added - value showed certain growth [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine - end Supply - From January to July, the global copper concentrate production was stable, but the Freeport Indonesia mining area's accident disrupted supply, and the fourth - quarter production and sales of the Grasberg mine are expected to decline significantly. Domestic copper concentrate port inventories are at a low level [28]. Smelting End - The copper concentrate spot smelting fee (TC) remained at a historical low, and the processing fees for domestic and imported copper also decreased, indicating a tight supply of copper mines [30]. Refined Copper - In September, the production of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month due to smelter maintenance and supply shortages of anode plates. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product, remained strong, offsetting some losses at the smelting end [32]. Import and Export - In August, China's imports of refined copper, unforged copper and copper products, and copper ore all increased year - on - year. The import profit of copper was negative, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [35]. Scrap Copper - In August, scrap copper imports increased steadily. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened in September, leading to stockpiling by some holders [39]. Processing Links - In August, the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods showed slight changes. The overall downstream operating rate was weak, but the copper foil operating rate increased due to strong downstream demand [41][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to August, investment in power projects was stable, and the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power increased significantly [49]. - The real estate market was still at the bottoming stage in August, with a decline in completion and new construction areas. Attention should be paid to potential real - estate policies after the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [52][55]. - In August, the production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly, and policies continued to support high - level production and sales [56]. - In August, the production of household appliances showed resilience, and it is expected to maintain this trend under the influence of policies [58]. Inventory - As of October 3, SHFE copper inventories increased but remained at a low level. As of September 29, domestic social copper inventories increased month - on - month but were still near the annual low [62]. - As of September 30, COMEX copper inventories increased, LME copper inventories decreased slightly, and global visible copper inventories increased [67]. Premiums and Discounts - In September, the domestic spot premium of copper weakened, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed [73]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of September 30, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly, and the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased [75]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper has been rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough [83]. 5. Outlook - Macroeconomic factors: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices. The US employment situation is not optimistic, and there may be more interest rate cuts. China's economic data has slowed down, and counter - cyclical policies are expected to be strengthened [89]. - Fundamental factors: The supply of copper mines has been disrupted, and although the supply pressure is not obvious due to imports, terminal consumption is weak. Inventories are at a low level, which supports copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain high in October [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price may show a mainly oscillating and slightly stronger trend. The price fluctuation is small, and the arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [4][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In August, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures was mainly in an upward trend, with a price range of about 79,390 yuan/ton to 83,820 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,843 - 10,485 US dollars/ton [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Uncertainty in Fed Rate Cuts - There is a continuous debate within the Fed regarding the magnitude and speed of interest rate adjustments. Among 19 Fed officials, 10 think "there will be two or more rate cuts this year", while the other 9 believe there will be one more rate cut or even no more cuts. The probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.3%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in December is 2.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 32.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 64.9% [10][11][13]. 2.2 Year - on - Year Growth in Profits of Industrial Enterprises above the National Scale - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Among them, the profit of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 12.7% [16][17]. 3. Supply Side 3.1 Continuous and Rapid Growth in Refined Copper Production - As of August 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of September 28, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 4.02 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 40.3 US dollars/kiloton [20]. 3.2 Continuous Narrowing of the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Copper - As of September 26, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 82,510 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 75,050 yuan/ton, with a price difference of - 45 yuan/ton [23]. 4. Demand Side - As of August 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2219 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. As of August 2025, the cumulative monthly investment in power grid construction was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14% [27]. 5. Inventory Side - As of September 30, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 95,034 tons, a decrease of 3,745 tons from the previous week. As of September 29, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 143,900 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6.72%. The COMEX copper inventory was 323,207 tons, an increase of 923 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous week [32]. 6. Outlook 6.1 Analysis of Price Trend Factors - Factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory. Chinese economic policies and US policies have a high impact, with the key points being the year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits and the uncertainty of the Fed's continued rate cuts. Supply factors such as the low level of refined copper processing fees and the year - on - year growth of copper production also have an impact, as do demand factors like the accelerated growth of power grid investment and the growth of copper product output. The continuous and significant accumulation of COMEX copper inventory also affects prices [38]. 6.2 Outlook - Given the macro - environment, supply, demand, and inventory situations, the copper price may show a mainly oscillating and slightly stronger trend. The price fluctuation is small, and the arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [39].

Report Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rose to 49.4%, showing an improved business climate compared to the previous month. The basis is neutral with the spot price at 82,215 and a basis of 40, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is neutral with a decrease in copper inventory on September 29 and a decrease in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20-day moving average which is moving upwards, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September [2]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals, basis, and inventory of copper are neutral, while the market trend and main positions are bullish. Copper prices are expected to maintain strength [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific利多and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the middle price, changes, and inventory details such as types, total amounts, and changes, is presented, but specific data is not fully provided in the given context [6]. 期现价差 - Not elaborated in the provided content. Exchange Inventory - Information on exchange inventory is mentioned, but specific details are not fully given [11]. 保税区库存 - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not elaborated in the provided content. Supply - Demand Balance - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

此前由于自由港宣布印尼Grasberg矿遭遇不可抗力并下调铜销量预测，这一事态发展明显超出前期预 期，市场对于矿紧矛盾激化担忧升温，内外铜价受振大涨，大涨过后期价基本消化本次矿端干扰，随后 铜价高位调整。截至上周五国内铜精矿现货加工费低位微升，但幅度有限，供需博弈下加工费暂时低位 企稳。 沪铜早间低开，日内跌幅有所收窄，收盘微跌0.21%。矿端干扰有所消化，临近双节下游备货基本结 束，高铜价对需求有所抑制，国内社库明显增加，铜价偏弱震荡。 》周末全国主流地区铜库存增加0.82万吨【SMM周度数据】 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，平衡预期在铜矿扰动下转入缺口，但现实层面尚待兑现。展望后市，降 息预期分歧和消费偏弱是持续突破的限制因素，但矿山影响量较大，预计限制回落空间，整体运行重心 已上移。后续需持续关注其恢复进展。 （文华综合） ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Resurgence of Disturbances at the Mine End, Copper Prices Prone to Rise and Hard to Fall [1] Report Date - September 29, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has deepened the short - term expectation of copper mine tightness, and the copper price has broken through and risen sharply. The long - term central price of copper will continue to rise. Although the impact of the accident has been digested in the short term and the price has fallen due to profit - taking, the impact on copper supply, demand, and price is likely to be long - term. Copper prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard, and may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The Freeport Indonesia mine has suspended production due to a mudslide accident, and the copper production and sales of the Grasberg mine in Q4 2025 are expected to decline significantly. As of September 26, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - $40.35/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.01%, still at a low level over the years. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production remained stable. In September, smelters entered the peak of shutdown and maintenance, and combined with the impact of policies on anode copper supply, electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease [5][31] - **Demand Side**: Pre - holiday stocking has slightly increased the operating rate. As of September 26, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a week - on - week increase of 3.28 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. This week, enterprises mainly stocked up before the holiday, driving the overall operating rate to recover. In terms of actual consumption, although the copper price dropped slightly at the beginning of the week, downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The sudden surge in copper price at the end of the week further suppressed the downstream's willingness to pick up goods, and the main orders were still existing orders [5][35] - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease. As of September 26, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 98,761 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.65%. As of September 25, the domestic social copper inventory was 140,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.91%. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream inventory replenishment increased, leading to a decline in inventory. As of September 26, the LME copper inventory was 144,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.20%, and the LME copper continued to reduce inventory. The COMEX copper inventory was 32,230 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%, with a slight increase in inventory [6][43] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia will take until 2027 to resume pre - accident production levels, and the 2026 output may be about 35% (about 270,000 tons) lower than previously estimated. The accident has deepened the short - term expectation of copper mine tightness, and the copper price has broken through and risen sharply. The long - term central price of copper will continue to rise. In the domestic market, affected by high copper prices, market consumption has weakened, and some downstream buyers' sentiment of pricing and taking goods has become more cautious. The pre - holiday stocking situation was lower than expected. As the end of the month and the National Day holiday approached, some holders showed a willingness to sell at low prices to recover funds before the holiday, resulting in an expansion of the spot discount. Currently, domestic smelters are in a high - maintenance period, the market arrivals are average, and the inventory has decreased slightly, but there are still imports of copper, and the supply - side pressure is not obvious. China's economic data in August showed a weakening trend month - on - month, and the consumption side in Q4 faces greater pressure. It is expected that China may introduce economic support policies in Q4. Overall, the impact of the Grasberg shutdown in Indonesia has been digested in the short term, and the price has fallen due to profit - taking, but the impact on copper supply, demand, and price may be long - term. Copper prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard and may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data Overview**: In September, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The central bank stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The US September Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined. The eurozone September manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell into the contraction range, while the services and composite PMI expanded. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, a two - year high, but inflation pressure was more stubborn. The US August core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [15] - **Industry News Overview**: The El Teniente copper mine in Chile is recovering slowly after the accident, and the annual copper production will be lower than expected. China's August scrap copper imports decreased by 5.64% month - on - month. After the accident at the Grasberg copper mine, Freeport's metal production will face significant losses. The ICSG reported a global copper market surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. The Antamina copper mine in Peru expects its 2026 copper production to increase to 450,000 tons [17] 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: The high copper price has weakened downstream stocking sentiment. Near the holiday, the downstream stocking pace was slow, and spot transactions remained around flat water. After the sharp rise in copper price, Shanghai copper spot transactions were weak, with transactions around a small discount. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed slightly, the New York - London copper spread increased slightly, and the refined - scrap copper spread widened [20] - **Domestic and Foreign Positions**: As of September 26, the Shanghai copper futures position was 229,050 lots, a week - on - week increase of 32.38%. The average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper this week was 137,568.8 lots, a week - on - week increase of 87.48%. Both the position and trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of September 19, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 12,188.6 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 36.00%. As of September 23, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 43,389 lots, a week - on - week increase of 3.07% [24] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The Freeport Indonesia mine has suspended production due to a mudslide accident, and the copper production and sales of the Grasberg mine in Q4 2025 are expected to decline significantly. As of September 26, the copper concentrate spot rough smelting fee was - $40.35/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.01%, still at a low level over the years. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production remained stable. In September, smelters entered the peak of shutdown and maintenance, and combined with the impact of policies on anode copper supply, electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease [31] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of September 26, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a week - on - week increase of 3.28 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. Last week, enterprises mainly stocked up before the holiday, driving the overall operating rate to recover. In terms of actual consumption, although the copper price dropped slightly at the beginning of the week, downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The sudden surge in copper price at the end of the week further suppressed the downstream's willingness to pick up goods, and the main orders were still existing orders. In August, the operating rates of copper plates, strips, tubes, and foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. The increase in copper price has reduced the purchasing willingness of downstream manufacturing enterprises, and the growth of downstream orders was lower than expected. The operating rate of copper tubes decreased due to US tariffs, while the operating rate of copper foils increased due to strong downstream demand for lithium - ion copper foils [35] - **Import and Export**: As of September 26, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 8.03, and the ratio remained stable this week. The negative value of copper spot import profit and loss widened slightly. In August, China's refined copper import volume was 263,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.37%. The scrap copper import volume in August was 179,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The imports of refined copper and scrap copper increased steadily. In August, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 425,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% [39] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 98,761 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.65%. As of September 25, the domestic social copper inventory was 140,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.91%. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream inventory replenishment increased, leading to a decline in inventory. As of September 26, the LME copper inventory was 144,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.20%, and the LME copper continued to reduce inventory. The COMEX copper inventory was 32,230 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%, with a slight increase in inventory [6][43]

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