Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - Major global economies are expected to end their interest rate cuts by the end of 2026, with the OECD predicting only two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, bringing the rate down to 3.25%-3.50% [2] - The European Central Bank is set to begin its easing cycle in June 2024, with a total of eight rate cuts anticipated [2] - Japan is experiencing a unique tightening cycle, potentially accelerating rate hikes to counter inflation pressures from new government policies [3] Group 2: China's Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a focus on maintaining liquidity in the market [4] - Despite the need for more aggressive monetary policy due to slowing economic growth, the central bank has remained silent on interest rate cuts, emphasizing long-term policy adjustments [5] Group 3: E-commerce and Delivery Standards - New national standards for food delivery platforms have been implemented, focusing on the rights of delivery personnel and ensuring fair labor practices [6] - The standards require platforms to calculate delivery times based on a maximum speed of 15 km/h for electric bike riders, which may impact delivery efficiency [7] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showed significant increases in transaction volumes in November, driven by demand for affordable housing [8] - The overall market remains in a state of price-volume exchange, with some cities showing signs of price stabilization, but the recovery foundation is still fragile [9] Group 5: E-sports Industry Growth - The Chinese e-sports industry is projected to generate 29.331 billion yuan in revenue by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [10] - Live streaming continues to dominate revenue sources, accounting for over 80% of total income, indicating a reliance on consumer engagement [10][11] Group 6: Meta's Strategic Shift - Meta's CEO Mark Zuckerberg plans to cut the budget for the metaverse project by up to 30%, shifting focus towards AI and related hardware products [12] - The metaverse sector has seen slow technological advancement, leading to a strategic pivot towards AI, which presents clearer business opportunities [12] Group 7: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a rebound, with significant gains in the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts [14] - The trading volume increased significantly, indicating active market participation and a potential shift in investor sentiment [14][15]

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 经济合作与发展组织（OECD）本周发布报告称，全球主要经济体进一步降息的空间已不大，预计将在2026年底前结束 降息周期。 OECD预计，到2026年底前，美联储只会再降息两次，将基准联邦基金利率从目前的3.75%-4.00%降至3.25%-3.50%，然 后在2027年维持这一水平；英国央行可能会在明年上半年停止降息；欧元区和加拿大明年都不会降息；日本将继续稳步 收紧其货币政策。 美联储自2024年9月重启降息以来，截至目前已降息5次。下一次货币政策会议将于12月9-10日召开。11月底以来，多位 美联储官员公开表达对降息的支持，导致市场大幅提高了本月降息的预期。北京时间周五11:00左右，芝加哥商品交易 所FedWatch显示，美联储本月降息25个基点的概率为87%。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英也对智通财经表示，欧元区货币宽松的空间很有限。"通胀粘性是制约欧元区 降息的首要因素，最近数据显示其通胀有反弹迹象。此外，欧元区国家的财政可持续压力也在上升，相对于其他国家， 欧盟对成员国有赤字率这一硬性指标红线要求。"她说。 "在许多发达经济体中，实际政策利率已接近或处于实际中性 ...

A股：股民做好准备，主力目的很明确，12月5日周五将迎来关键变盘 周四A股探底回升，注意了，紧急提醒2.5亿股民，今天创业板大涨1%就是止跌信号，不废话，直接说 重点： 老铁们，今天这盘面看着弱，但大师兄我眼里全是机会！3600多只股票下跌，跌停家数超20家，估计不 少人又慌了。但我要说，别被表面现象骗了——大盘在3856点精准支撑，创业板大涨1%，三大主线开 始反攻，这恰恰是调整结束的信号。高位股集体跌停不是坏事，说明市场完成切换，新行情即将开启！ 3845点+3013点，双底共振+5分钟底背离=短线见底 今天大盘最低打到3856点附近，创业板最低3013点，这两个位置是啥？是上周四的低点，是铁底！盘中 5分钟级别出现底背离，指数创新低但指标不创新低，说明啥？说明下跌衰竭，反弹力量在积蓄。尾盘 创业板大涨1%，率先翻红，这就是多头吹响的反攻号角。 技术面上，大盘回踩10日线获得支撑，MACD绿柱缩短，KDJ指标触底拐头，所有信号都指向一点：短 线调整结束，跌不动了！缩量7%到1.55万亿，不是没人玩了，是抛压枯竭，该卖的早卖了，剩下的都 是锁仓等反弹的。这种缩量企稳，比放量下跌健康一百倍。 高位股集体跌停是 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite the current fluctuations in gold prices, the overall trend remains bullish due to supportive factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and strong global central bank demand for gold [1][3][4] - The market is currently awaiting key economic data, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are expected to influence future interest rate decisions and support gold prices [3][4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is seen as a pivotal moment, with expectations of a dovish shift in monetary policy that could further bolster gold prices in the long term [4] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index has shown a recent decline, which typically supports gold prices; however, the current market conditions are causing gold to experience some resistance near key levels [1][3] - The market is in a phase of adjustment, with gold prices oscillating near resistance levels, indicating a potential accumulation phase before a breakout [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions and strong demand from central banks are providing a solid foundation for gold prices, suggesting a bullish outlook for the next year [4]

本周及下周，美国将公布多项重要经济数据，包括核心PCE物价指数、PPI通胀、非农失业率以及CPI通 胀等。市场关注的焦点不仅是12月的降息，更是明年的降息前景。因此，当前的调整等待实属正常。 通常，金价反弹会在降息当周遇阻。临近下周美联储利率决议，金价震荡也在情理之中。决议后，市场 将回归明年的降息周期预期，届时从本周到下周的调整或成为入场良机。无论11月非农和CPI数据何时 公布，都将支撑后续降息前景。加之美联储可能迎来更加鸽派的主席，明年宽松的降息环境可期。 技术上，月线级别，11月再度强势反弹收阳，收复10月大部分回撤幅度，使其见顶看空形态预期打消， 并也进一步增强了后市看涨新高的前景，但需突破4400美元关口收线才能进一步打开上行空间，否则仍 有遇阻回落横盘调整的风险。 摘要今日周四(12月4日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4215美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4213.79美元/盎司，涨幅0.26%，最高上探至4215.39美元/盎司，最低触及4201.55美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周四(12月4日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4215美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金 ...

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 其最新估算表明，在许多国家，利率需要保持在高于疫情前的水平以控制通胀，部分原因是公共债务水平高于以往的典型水平 。 "在许多发达 经济体，实际政策利率已经接近或处于实际中性利率的估算范围内，预计到2027年底所有经济体都将如此，"经合组织表示。 该组织认为，全球经济迄今为止抵御特朗普关税冲击的表现好于预期， 预计2025年GDP将增长3.2%，随后在2026年放缓至2.9% ， 2027 年回升至3.1%， 与国际货币基金组织（IMF）的最新预测大致相符。这部分归功于人工智能相关投资的激增，提振了美国和许多亚洲经济体 的工业生产。 经合组织目前预计美国经济2025年将增长2%， 高于其9月中期预测的1.8%，且这一年的增长将逐渐减少对AI的依赖。尽管关税效应逐渐显 现，明年增长仍将放缓，但程度轻于此前预期，2026年GDP将增长1.7%。经合组织还上调了对欧元区和日本的2025年预测，两者目前均预 计增长1.3%。 经合组织认为， 英国在2026年的表现将好于预期 ， 增长率将从今年的1.4% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Not clearly defined in the given content - Silver: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday swings. Fed Chair Powell's speech at Stanford University did not cover the economic situation and monetary policy. After silver reached a new all - time high, its upward momentum slowed. Before gold breaks through the previous high resistance, precious metals as a whole should be treated as in a fluctuating state, and chasing high prices is not advisable. Platinum has a supply shortage this year, and its historical supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with platinum performing stronger than palladium. Attention should be paid to tonight's US ADP employment and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data [1] 3. Other Information from Related News - Trump said the US will soon launch a land strike against drug - trafficking groups [2] - Putin threatened to cut off Ukraine's sea lanes, vowed to strengthen strikes on Ukrainian facilities and ships. He said Russia cannot accept the European "peace plan amendment" and is ready for war if Europe wants one. Putin held a nearly 5 - hour meeting with a US envoy, and the Russian side said the meeting was fruitful and both sides agreed not to disclose the essence of the negotiation [2] - The OECD maintained its global economic growth forecasts for this year and next, and expects the interest - rate cut cycle of major economies to end next year [2]

岁末年初，一场关于美联储未来走向的博弈正在白宫与市场之间悄然上演。美国总统特朗普近期宣布， 计划于2026年初公布下一任美联储主席人选，这一表态为持续数月的猜测提供了关键的时间锚。 下一任美联储主席"花落谁家"，哈塞特成最热人选 据市场预测平台Kalshi上的投注数据，目前担任美国国家经济委员会主任的凯文·哈塞特获得提名的概率 遥遥领先。甚至有分析认为，特朗普已"内定"哈塞特。 素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的著名记者Nick Timiraos也撰文坦言，美联储主席遴选进程这一过程似乎已 近尾声，特朗普正倾向于选择其长期顾问哈塞特。 这一人选倾向背后，是鲜明的政策意图。特朗普长期以来公开抨击现任主席鲍威尔，批评其降息动作迟 缓，加剧了政府财政压力。 而哈塞特的货币政策立场偏向鸽派，核心主张是尽快降息以规避经济衰退风险，其利率政策倾向与美国 总统特朗普高度一致，若其上任，可能会大幅降息。 对此，Man Group首席市场策略师Kristina Hooper警告称，这种状态可能使美联储难以清晰传递货币政 策信号，在市场亟需明确指引之际引发混乱。 短期政策展望：12月降息已成市场共识？ 目光转向近期，市场的焦点已集中于 ...

北京时间周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于99.20附近，现货白银今日开盘于58.46美元/盎司，目 前交投于58.30美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于13730元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于13760元/千克附近。 今日基本面关注美国11月ADP就业人数、美国9月进口物价指数月率、美国9月工业产出月率、美国11月 标普全球服务业PMI终值以及美国11月ISM非制造业PMI。 周二(12月2日)美元指数下跌0.09%，收报99.319，现货白银收报58.44美元/盎司，上涨0.84%，因投资者 获利了结，现货黄金美盘跳水，最终收跌，现货白银回调后涨势不改：现货黄金下跌0.59%，报4205.38 美元/盎司，现货铂金收跌1.11%，报1638.45美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨2.19%，至1456.00元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 【要闻速递】 1、特朗普将于明年初宣布美联储主席人选，积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席。 12月2日白银ETF持仓15863.15吨，较前一交易日上涨60.79吨； 12月2日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)--空付多。 2、普京威胁切断乌克兰海上通道，誓言将加强打击乌设施与船只 ...

12月3日资讯分享 周二，因投资者获利了结，现货黄金美盘跳水，最终收跌0.59%，报4207.52美元/盎司；现货白银回调 后涨势不改，最终收涨0.86%，报58.49美元/盎司。 交易商评估乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯能源设施、委内瑞拉局势、以及美国燃料库存前景不一所带来的风 险，国际油价在接近两周高点的位置回调。WTI原油最终收跌1.51%，报58.61美元/桶；布伦特原油最终 收跌1.37%，报62.45美元/桶。 川普将于明年初宣布美联储主席人选，积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席。 俄威胁切断乌克兰海上通道，誓言将加强打击乌设施与船只；称无法接受欧洲对俄乌"和平计划"的修 改，如果欧洲想开战，俄罗斯现在准备好了；俄总统与美特使举行会议，时长近5个小时。俄方称，会 晤富有成效，双方同意不透露此次谈判的实质内容。 经合组织维持今明两年全球经济增速预期，预计主要经济体降息周期将于明年结束。 德商银行：预计未来一年内金价将上涨至4400美元/盎司，银价有望达到59美元/盎司。 ...