地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 10 月 09 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 10 月 09 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少。沪金、棕榈油、沪铜、国际 铜涨超 4%，沪锡、豆油、沪镍、沪银涨超 2%；跌幅方面，生猪、液化石油气（LPG） 跌超 5%，鸡蛋跌超 4%，尿素跌超 3%，烧碱、甲醇、丙烯跌超 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price broke through the oscillation range and is expected to rise mainly due to entering the interest - rate cut cycle, mine - end disturbances, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - demand season expectations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened and closed higher today. During the holiday, the Fed's shutdown due to a lack of funds increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and the copper price rose. After the holiday, copper prices increased significantly. The US September "small non - farm" ADP employment decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023, far lower than the expected increase of 50,000 and the previous value of 54,000. Investors expect overseas liquidity to remain loose, and the Fed's independence is in doubt, supporting the copper price to enter an upward cycle. Mine - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the hopeless resumption of production in Panama intensified supply concerns. In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 50,500 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.62%. It is expected that the subsequent production will continue to decline. Although the real estate sector is a drag, new technologies such as new energy vehicles and AI strengthen downstream expectations during the peak - demand season [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, with the closing price at 86,750 yuan/ton. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 10 yuan/ton, and in South China was 30 yuan/ton. On September 25, 2025, the LME official price was $10,771/ton, and the spot premium was - $33/ton [4] Supply - side Situation - As of September 30, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $40.3/ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.03 cents/pound. In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was 29,700 tons, an increase of 2,880 tons from the previous period; as of September 29, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; LME copper inventory was 139,500 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from the previous period; COMEX copper inventory was 335,500 short tons, an increase of 1,947 short tons from the previous period [7][10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic innovative drug sector is entering a phase of "engineer dividend" realization, with improved profitability and valuation breakthroughs expected [1] - The CXO sector is showing signs of recovery, with a positive outlook on CDMO commercialization orders and clinical CRO investment opportunities [2] - The upstream research sector is anticipated to benefit from a downward interest rate cycle and a recovery in global new drug development demand, with recommended stocks including Haoyuan Pharmaceutical and Bid Pharma [3] - The medical device sector is expected to experience a recovery cycle, particularly for high-value consumables and medical equipment companies, with recommendations for companies like Aikang Medical and Mindray Medical [4] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is projected to see an earnings inflection point, with a favorable outlook for the second half of 2025 [5] - The report favors leading pharmacy chains with superior management capabilities, recommending companies such as Dazhonglin and Yifeng Pharmacy [6] - The pharmaceutical distribution sector is expected to improve, with a focus on low-positioned value and innovative business opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - Positive outlook on profitability improvement and valuation breakthroughs due to recognition by multinational corporations [1] CXO - Recovery in the sector with ongoing commercialization of small and large molecule CDMO orders [2] Upstream Research - Anticipated performance elasticity and new business expansion opportunities [3] Medical Devices - Significant growth potential in high-value consumables and medical equipment sectors [4] Traditional Chinese Medicine - Expected earnings growth and increased market interest due to improved fundamentals [5] Pharmacies - Favorable view on pharmacy chains with strong management and adaptability [6] Pharmaceutical Distribution - Positive trends in the sector with potential for operational improvements and value re-evaluation [7]

一、证券市场回顾 二、ETF市场表现1、股票型ETF整体市场表现 9月30日股票型ETF收益率中位数为0.73%。其中按照不同分类，规模指数ETF中广发上证科创板100增 强策略ETF收益率最高，为3.48%；行业指数ETF中华夏中证细分有色金属产业主题ETF收益率最高，为 4.17%；策略指数ETF中华夏中证500自由现金流ETF收益率最高，为1.44%；风格指数ETF中万家上证科 创板成长ETF收益率最高，为2.53%；主题指数ETF中华富中证稀有金属主题ETF收益率最高，为 4.99%。 2、股票型ETF涨跌幅排行 9月30日股票型ETF涨幅最高的3只ETF及其收益率分别为：华富中证稀有金属主题ETF（4.99%）、广 发中证稀有金属主题ETF（4.38%）、工银瑞信中证稀有金属主题ETF（4.35%）。涨幅前10详情见下 表： | 美别 | 代码 | 基金名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票型 | 561800.SH | 华富中证稀有金属主题ETF | 4.99% | | 股票型 | 159608.SZ | 广发中证稀有金属主题ETF | 4.38% ...

降息周期工业品展望-铝产业链 20251008 铝与铜、锡及黄金相比，在商品价格预估上的核心制约因素是什么？ 铝与铜、锡及黄金相比，其定价逻辑不如这些金属干净。例如，与铜相比，尽 管年初我们判断供需双强，但铜需求端比铝更干净。铜的需求主要来自电网投 资，占比约 40%，而地产用占比仅 7-8%。相反，铝需求中 20%以上来自建 筑业，这部分需求受到拖累。此外，铜供应容易出现减量扰动，如矿山问题， 而铝供应则相对稳定。 即便考虑宏观衰退逻辑，由于当前铝利润较高，其下行 弹性可能更大。因此市场普遍认为做多铜的确定性优于铝。而锡则存在矿端问 题，而今年（2025 年）几内亚矿产同比增量可达 20%-30%，运力持续提升， 因此原料供应能力相对稳定。这些因素导致市场对于铝价上涨预期不如其他金 属大胆。 当前产业链从业者对于整个铝价预估有哪些担忧？ 产业链从业者对于整个铝价预估存在一些担忧。首先，相较于其他金属，如铜、 锡及黄金，铝在看多逻辑上不够干净。例如，与铜相比，尽管年初判断供需双 强，但实际情况是：1）需求端：电网投资占比 40%，表现良好；地产用占比 仅 7-8%；而建筑业占据了 20%以上的比例，对整体需求 ...

降息周期工业品展望-铜 20251008 铜供应紧张，加工费低位致冶炼厂减产，废铜进口减少，印尼 Grasberg 矿山停产扰动未来产量，预计 2025 年 Q4 至 2026 年产量显 著下降，2026 年 Grasberg 矿山产量预计下降 35%，总产量减少 27 万吨。 全球及中国需求端乐观，新能源领域（充电桩、储能、新能源汽车、远 洋风电）对铜需求带动明显，预计 2026 年带动新增消费量 20 万吨以 上，中国电网投资每年新增消费量 30 万吨，预计明年电网投资增速较 高。 南亚、东南亚、中东及南美地区需求良好，土耳其消费增速突出，关税 扰动减弱，预计这些地区增量可达 40 万吨，增速约 10%。美国和欧洲 市场预期较高，AI 技术发展推动美国用铜需求，预计美国每年用铜增长 率为 10%。 欧洲政治问题影响有限，资本开支呈上升趋势。预计 2025 年 Q4 铜库 存下降约 10 万吨，2026 年缺口约 20 万吨，价格将反映预期并上涨， 阿罗比斯报告显示 2026 年深水报价为 315 美元，比之前提高 38%。 Q&A 当前铜价上涨的主要驱动因素是什么？ 当前铜价上涨主要由宏观经济和基本面因素 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that abundant liquidity and ongoing investments in AI are the two main drivers behind the sustained rise of Hong Kong stocks since early September [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "wealth effect" in Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue attracting southbound capital inflows [1] - The potential election of a new Japanese Prime Minister, if successful, could lead to arbitrage trading by Japanese investors benefiting Hong Kong stocks [1] - The ongoing capital expenditure by domestic and international companies in the AI sector, along with continuous iterations and innovations in large models and applications, may lead to performance realization in Hong Kong's complete AI and technology industry chain [1] Group 2: Valuation and Future Outlook - After six months of valuation expansion, the current absolute valuation of Hong Kong stocks is considered not cheap [1] - However, with fundamentals expected to bottom out and a significant increase in earnings projected for 2026, Hong Kong stocks still hold considerable attractiveness on a global scale [1] - The report predicts that the long bull market for Hong Kong stocks since early 2024 will continue, driven by liquidity spillover effects and sustained AI narratives [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on four key long-term directions: 1) Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] 2) Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] 3) Non-ferrous metals benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization [1] 4) Consumer sector, which is expected to see valuation recovery amid further domestic economic recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise of Hong Kong stocks since early September is driven by abundant liquidity and ongoing investments and innovations in AI [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Southbound capital is expected to continue flowing into Hong Kong stocks due to the "wealth effect" [1] - The potential election of a new Japanese Prime Minister, if successful, may lead to arbitrage trading by Japanese investors benefiting Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Increased capital expenditure in the AI sector by domestic and international companies is anticipated to lead to performance realization in Hong Kong's complete AI and technology industry chain [1] - Despite a six-month valuation expansion, the current absolute valuation of Hong Kong stocks is not cheap, but the fundamentals are expected to rebound [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on four long-term directions: 1) Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] 2) Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] 3) Non-ferrous metals benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization [1] 4) Consumer sector, which may see valuation recovery with further domestic economic recovery [1]

在黄金史上首次突破每盎司4000美元大关之际，比特币价格反而有所回落。此番回调源于加密市场在不 到一周内大涨7.7%后出现的获利了结，同时巨鲸账户的账面收益也已相当可观。此外，美元指数正攀 升至两个月高位。不过机构对比特币的兴趣并未消退：上周美国现货比特币ETF净流入逾30亿美元，推 动总净流入突破600亿大关；据SoSoValue统计，本周再获20亿美元资金注入。XS.com市场分析师Linh Tran表示，"短期内比特币基本面依然向好，货币宽松预期、持续不断的ETF流入以及不散的避险需求 构成三重支撑。若美联储在后续会议中释放更明确的降息周期启动信号，比特币有望在四季度拓展新的 价格空间。"下一个关键考验或将来自美联储——交易员已开始押注降息，若官方确认政策转向，黄金 与比特币或能重获上涨动能。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a strong upward trend, with a continuous rise for five months, despite underlying economic weaknesses [1][2]. Market Performance Review - In September, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline at the beginning, followed by a sustained rebound due to favorable factors such as the U.S. interest rate cut and significant inflows from the south. The Hang Seng Index reached a peak of over 27,000 points [2]. - The monthly performance of major indices as of the end of September was as follows: Hang Seng Composite Index +8.11%, Hang Seng Index +7.09%, and Hang Seng Tech Index +13.95% [2]. Macro Environment Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in August showed further weakening, indicating that the domestic economy is still in a bottoming phase [3]. - **Policy**: The policy stance has become more proactive to support economic stability and growth [3]. - **Capital**: There has been a significant acceleration of southbound capital inflows, and the external funding environment has improved, leading to increased investment in Hong Kong stocks [3]. - **Sentiment**: The strong market performance has driven bullish sentiment, although concerns about the fundamentals remain [3]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market's fundamentals remain weak, but the capital environment is improving, and there is strong short-term bullish sentiment. The market trend has entered a right-side phase, and a cautious optimism is maintained for the short to medium term [4]. - Preferred sectors for investment include automobiles, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology, which are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support [4]. - Additionally, low-valuation state-owned enterprises with stable performance and dividends, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks that benefit from the interest rate cut cycle, are also favored [4]. - Attention should be paid to potential impacts from the U.S.-China trade disputes, with a recommendation to avoid sectors and companies with significant exposure to U.S. business [4].