7 月利率展望：震荡格局下波段为主，关注大会增量 20250703 摘要 6 月债市整体震荡，实债收益率小幅下降至 1.65%左右。央行超预期买 断式逆回购操作呵护流动性，中美关税谈判及地缘政治冲突影响市场情 绪。月末银行季末考核压力导致债市小幅震荡走弱，但整体略走牛。 央行两次买断式逆回购操作净投放超 2000 亿，一年期国债收益率下降 超 10 个基点至约 1.35%，期限利差扩大至 38 个基点左右，国债收益 率曲线呈现走陡态势。 预计 7 月 CPI 同比增速在 0 附近徘徊，猪肉价格继续下行，原油价格因 地缘冲突有所回升。核心 CPI 温和回升受五一假期影响，消费修复内生 动力有限，对 CPI 拉动作用较弱。 预计政府债将继续成为社融主要支撑力量，6 月政府债净供给超 1.6 万 亿，同比翻倍。企业工业利润 5 月快速回落至负区间，居民部门地产修 复情况不明确，票据利率偏小幅度表现不支持社融大幅提升。 5 月出口保持正增长 4.8%，受抢出口和转出口韧性支撑。若中美关税互 免期内外溢性影响不显著，东盟、印度、欧洲等主要出口国仍会形成支 撑。下半年出口增速可能转负，需关注中美关税互免期结束时美方态度 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：我预计通胀高企将持续更长时间，但不会飙升。 ...

Group 1 - Japanese companies have agreed to an average salary increase of 5.25% this year, marking the largest increase in 34 years and achieving strong growth for the third consecutive year [1] - The average bonus payment for major companies this summer increased by 4.37% compared to the previous year, reaching a record 990,848 yen [1] - A significant labor shortage in Japan, particularly in non-manufacturing sectors and small businesses, has reached historical levels, leading to some companies going bankrupt [1] Group 2 - Two-thirds of Japanese companies believe that labor shortages are severely impacting their business [2] - There is a growing consensus among companies that salary increases must exceed inflation, which is currently around 3.7% for core consumer price index [2] - Stable wage growth is crucial for maintaining a consumption-driven economic recovery, which is also a prerequisite for the Bank of Japan to resume interest rate hikes [2] Group 3 - Mizuho Research & Technologies forecasts a 4.7% wage growth next year, assuming a decline in oil prices to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits [2] - Daiwa Securities anticipates average wage growth between 4.5% and 4.9% next year, emphasizing the need for non-manufacturers to take the lead in salary increases [2] - Current trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are stalled, with threats of tariffs on Japanese imports potentially rising to 35% [2]

新华财经北京7月3日电美国6月非农就业数据显示，尽管新增就业岗位超出预期，达到14.7万人，并显 示出失业率意外降至4.1%，表明劳动力市场仍具韧性。数据公布后，美元指数短线拉升约40点。 分项数据显示，美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万人，预期10.6万人，4月和5月非农就业人数合计上修 1.6万人。失业率4.1%，预期4.3%，前值4.2%。 图为：2023年6月—2025年6月季调后的美国失业率，来源：BLS 图为：经季节性调整的非农就业人数月度变化，来源：BLS 值得关注的是，过去几个月的就业数据也得到了向上修正。其中，四月非农就业人数上修1.1万人，从 14.7万人增至15.8万人；五月数据也上修0.5万人，从13.9万人增至14.4万人。这些修正进一步印证了美 国劳动力市场的潜在韧性。 就业增长超预期，但增速放缓 尽管6月新增就业人数高于市场预期，且5月数据被上修至14.4万，但整体来看，就业增长呈现出放缓趋 势。这可能反映出企业在招聘方面趋于谨慎，尤其是在疫情后的经济环境中，企业对未来的不确定性导 致其在扩张用工方面保持保守态度。这种"囤积劳动力"的现象说明雇主更倾向于维持现有员工而非大规 模扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expected to soon highlight employment data, emphasizing that job growth has exceeded economists' predictions for the fourth consecutive time [1] Group 1 - Analyst Chris Anstey notes that the economic team will point out that various indicators have proven to be better than widely expected, including moderate inflation and robust job growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will play a crucial role in determining whether the recent downward trend of the U.S. dollar will continue [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that persistent inflation and a solid labor market indicate that interest rates should remain at restrictive levels [1] - Any unexpected downturn in the employment report could weaken Powell's position and increase market expectations for a rate cut in the July meeting [1] - Unless the employment data is weaker than expected, the dollar may continue to consolidate before the U.S. holiday on July 4 [1]

2026年是通胀低于2%的重要一年。 只要政策合适，通胀低于目标水平只是暂时的。 绝不能夸大2026年通胀低于预期一事。 欧洲央行会议纪要：能源、欧元是CPI的主要推动力。 欧元走强可能加剧出口的不利因素。 ...

欧洲央行会议纪要：如果贸易紧张局势进一步升级，工作人员预计经济增长和通胀将低于其基准预测。 ...

Group 1 - The Eurozone services sector showed a recovery in June after a brief contraction in May, with the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rising from 49.7 in May to 50.5 in June, indicating a return to growth albeit at a weak pace [1] - The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, increased from 50.2 to 50.6, marking a three-month high, but still reflects only moderate growth [1] - New orders in the Eurozone have declined for the 13th consecutive month, although the rate of contraction has slowed to a slight level of 49.7 [1] Group 2 - The services sector confidence index reached its highest level in 2025, recovering from a 29-month low in April, yet remains below the long-term trend [2] - Input cost inflation for the services sector dropped to a seven-month low, but sales prices increased at the fastest rate in three months, complicating the inflation outlook despite recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [2] - More than half of economists surveyed expect the European Central Bank to cut rates again in September after a year-long easing cycle [2]

智通财经7月3日电，俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜称，通胀的放缓速度快于预期，尚未做出任何决定，包 括降息。 ...