Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities on January 8, 2026 [2] Group 2: Commodity - Specific Key Points Steel - On January 7, domestic steel markets mostly rose, with Tangshan steel billet price up 50 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and some steel mills raising rebar prices by 30 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm rebar increased by 28 yuan/ton. After the fourth round of coke price cuts at the beginning of the month and high - priced iron ore, steel costs slightly decreased, and some steel mills resumed production. With the rise of coke and iron ore futures, steel prices rebounded. Due to the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season, the rebound space may be limited, and prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [2] Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded, while domestic rubber factories faced losses. As of January 4, 2026, Chinese natural rubber social inventory increased, with dark - colored rubber up 3% and light - colored rubber up 1.3%. Most tire companies controlled production flexibly, with finished - product inventory rising and raw - material procurement being cautious. Technically, there was insufficient follow - up capital. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with strong pressure at 16,300 yuan/ton [3] Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 561,000 tons to 1.1583 million tons. Port inventory continued to rise, but with the recovery of steel mill profits and iron - water output, demand was supported, and steel mills continued to replenish inventory slightly. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the market expects marginal improvement in the short term, and prices may fluctuate strongly [5] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants increased by 0.3% to 35.4%, and the daily output of clean coal increased by 300 tons to 26,100 tons, while the inventory decreased by 94,000 tons to 319,700 tons. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, there may be few transactions before the festival, and prices are likely to fall after the festival, so it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Live Pigs - On January 7, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.2%. The pig price in the north was stronger and stable in the south, with reduced supply in some northern weight segments supporting prices. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and short - term long positions are recommended, while focusing on farmers' slaughter volume and sow culling [6] Soybean Meal - On January 7, domestic soybean meal prices rose. Oil mills and traders were bullish, and some downstream companies increased long - term contract purchases. However, with the rapid recovery of oil - mill operations, inventory may accumulate, limiting price increases. Short - term participation is recommended, and prices will face pressure if import supply increases and demand does not improve [6] Palm Oil - MPOA data showed that December Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons. Indonesia may confiscate 5 million hectares of oil - palm plantations in 2026, causing market concerns. The short - term market sentiment is bullish, and short - term long positions are recommended, while paying attention to the impact of crude oil on palm oil [7] Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased, and daily output decreased slightly. The US reached an agreement with Venezuela to import up to $2 billion of crude oil, and international oil prices continued to fall. With frequent geopolitical conflicts and oversupply, short - term trading is advisable [8] PTA - Polyester inventory is still low. PTA is expected to accumulate inventory in Q1, and some polyester factories plan to reduce production. PX supply is relatively loose, and PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the long - term. Short - term observation is recommended [8] Copper - Workers at Mantoverde Copper Mine in Chile continued to strike, and the mine was almost completely shut down. Copper prices entered high - level consolidation after reaching new highs. The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts, and the supply is worried, while high prices have suppressed consumption. Copper prices may not peak yet, but short - term volatility may increase [9] Methanol - Methanol port inventory increased, production - enterprise inventory and orders increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The domestic methanol market was weak, and the port basis weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash rose, production decreased, and factory inventory decreased. The float - glass market was stable, with slightly decreased production and inventory. The domestic soda - ash market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] PVC - PVC prices rose, capacity utilization increased, and social inventory increased. Supply is abundant, but demand is weak both domestically and abroad, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [11] Silver - US employment data was weak, increasing economic pressure and negative factors for silver. The market expects no Fed interest - rate cut in January, and silver may follow gold in high - level fluctuations [12] Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank conducted a 1.1 trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation, which was an equal - amount roll - over. Market expectations of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts may be postponed. Short - term funds decreased, which is beneficial to the bond market, and the bond market's oscillation may increase [12] Gold - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in January is 92%. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term. The interaction between gold and silver should be noted [13]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面大幅上涨，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3187元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨76元/ 吨，涨幅为2.44%，持仓增加17.8万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格上涨50元/ 吨至2980元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨60元/吨至3260元/吨，全国建材成交量12.53万吨。据钢谷 网数据，本周全国建材产量回升1.73万吨至357.93万吨，社库下降4.32万吨至454.8万吨，厂库增加6.97 万吨至300.45万吨，建材表需回落14.79万吨至355.28万吨。建材产量继续小幅回升，库存由降转增，表 需回落，数据表现偏中性。受供应端消息影响，昨日煤焦盘面价格出现涨停，铁矿石盘面也大幅上涨， 对螺纹走势形成较强提振。从供需看螺纹矛盾不大、驱动也不强，不过近期商品市场整体看涨氛围较为 浓厚。预计短期螺纹盘面或震荡偏强运行。 铁矿石： （柳浠，从业资格号：F03087689；交易咨询资格号：Z0019538） 昨日铁矿石期货主力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2]. - The market sentiment affects the rebar and hot - rolled coil plates, with their prices showing a strong - side oscillation [2]. - The market sentiment drives up the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and their prices are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [2]. - Due to event fermentation, coke and coking coal prices will oscillate at high levels [2]. - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data** - The previous day's closing price of iron ore futures was 828.0 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton or 3.37%. The previous day's position was 666,581 lots, an increase of 25,713 lots [5]. - Imported ore prices increased, with the price of Carajás fines (65%) rising by 18.0 yuan/ton to 910.0 yuan/ton, and PB fines (61.5%) rising by 19.0 yuan/ton to 832.0 yuan/ton [5]. - Some domestic ore prices remained unchanged, such as Langna (66%) at 972.0 yuan/ton and Laiwu (65%) at 890.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The basis and spread of iron ore futures showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Macro and Industry News** - China's December RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line and slightly higher than November's 51.2, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [6]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Plates - **Fundamental Data** - For rebar RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,187 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton or 2.87%, and the trading volume was 1,937,222 lots, with a position of 1,741,383 lots, an increase of 178,435 lots [9]. - For hot - rolled coil plate HC2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%, and the trading volume was 943,506 lots, with a position of 1,377,887 lots, an increase of 103,802 lots [9]. - Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil plates in various regions increased, and the basis and spread of futures also changed [9]. - **Macro and Industry News** - In late December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a decrease of 27 million tons or 3.6% compared with the previous period [10]. - On December 31st, according to Steel Union's weekly data, the output of rebar increased by 3.83 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils increased by 10.97 million tons [11]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil plates is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data** - The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 70.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton [14]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [14]. - The basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Macro and Industry News** - According to Ferrous Metals Online, on January 6th, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions increased, and the procurement prices and quantities of some steel mills also changed [15]. - There was news about the possible implementation of differential electricity prices for restricted ferroalloy enterprises in Shaanxi from July 1, 2026 [16]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data** - The previous day's closing price of coking coal futures JM2605 was 1,164 yuan/ton, up 6.2%, and the closing price of coke futures J2605 was 1,773 yuan/ton, up 7.1% [18]. - Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained unchanged, and the basis and spread of futures changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News** - On January 7th, CCI's metallurgical coal index showed that the prices of different types of coking coal remained stable [18]. - According to Mysteel's coal - coke data, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines increased, and the number of newly - shut - down and re - opened mines changed [18]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [20]. Logs - **Fundamental Data** - The closing price, trading volume, and position of log futures contracts showed different degrees of change, and the price of log spot markets in various regions remained stable [22]. - The basis and spread of log futures also changed [22]. - **Macro and Industry News** - China's December RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line and slightly higher than November's 51.2, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [24]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [24].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 8 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格上涨 6 元至 5457 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格 5295 元/吨（环比+5），山东地区现货价格 5225 元/吨（环比-8）。持仓方面，多 | | | | | 头持仓增加 812 手至 1.8 万手，空头持仓增加 1114 至 2.31 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：31.8 万吨，较上期库存 30.0 万吨 | | | | | 上升 1.8 万吨，环比增加 6.00%；较去年 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold futures have surpassed $4,470 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.17% [1][8] - Spot silver has fallen below $77 per ounce, experiencing a daily decline of 5.27% [2][9] Group 2: Base Metals Futures - Nickel's continuous main contract has dropped by 2% and is currently priced at 142,460.00 yuan [3][10] Group 3: Energy and Shipping Futures - According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels last week, while Bloomberg users expected a reduction of 2 million barrels and analysts anticipated a decline of 1.3318 million barrels; the previous week saw a decrease of 1.934 million barrels [4][11] Group 4: Financial Futures - Following the data release, U.S. Treasury yields narrowed their previous declines; the latest 10-year Treasury yield has decreased by 2.7 basis points to 4.152% [5][12] Group 5: Macro and Market Impact - The issuance of investment-grade U.S. dollar bonds has reached $88 billion this week, marking the highest level since 2020 [6][13]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 热轧卷板：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.52%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，叠加市场情绪偏暖，价格震荡走高，但产 量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，谨防需求走弱引发矛盾再度累积，届时 价格将承压走弱，关注需求表现情况。 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观情绪发酵，钢矿偏强运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.87%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 商品情绪偏暖，螺纹期价低位回升，但供增需弱局面下螺纹基本面弱稳 运行，淡季钢价上行有待跟踪 ...

与此同时，随着市场的发展，部分大宗商品综合服务商也开始借助期现联动为养殖主体提供多种模式的 定价和销售服务。中基商贸(浙江)有限公司生猪冻品板块总经理李坤坤表示，一方面，期货价格让市场 信息越来越透明，使得各类企业、农户拥有一致的信息量。另一方面，生猪期货可以帮助企业稳定经 营，从而把更多精力从研判价格转移到提升生产效率、改善饲料配方等方面。(完)【编辑:曹子健】 产业参与方面，有3000余家产业企业参与生猪期货交易，出栏量达到百万头的32家猪企中有24家参与过 生猪期货交易、交割或成为生猪期货交割库。牧原股份、神农集团、海大集团、天康生物、巨星农牧、 大北农、唐人神等多家上市公司发布过涉及生猪期货的套期保值公告。交割布局方面，生猪期货交割库 布局广、交割能力充足。目前，生猪期货交割区域包括22个省(区、市)，覆盖我国主要生猪养殖省份。 服务乡村振兴方面，五年来，大商所共支持开展生猪"保险+期货"项目774个，涉及现货量超1540万头， 已结项的项目累计实现赔付7.48亿元，覆盖河南、四川、湖南等养殖大省，惠及养殖户2.87万户次。价 格发现方面，生猪期货也为宏观管理部门研判产业走势和制定宏观政策、为养殖企业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. However, in the short term, supported by macro - news and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong trend. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intra - day performance. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands had an upward - opening three - rail, indicating a short - term volatile and strong signal. The upper pressure was near the 60 - week moving average, and the support was near the 60/40 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 1.521 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,426 lots. The intra - day high was 1277, the low was 1188, and the closing price was 1271, up 89 yuan/ton (7.53%) from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: The price was stable. Some plant loads increased slightly, with few maintenance expectations. The industry supply remained high. Downstream demand was average, mostly replenishing on demand and with low - price transactions [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was - 21 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 1, domestic soda ash production was 697,100 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons (2.07%) compared to the previous period. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 79.96%, a decrease of 1.69% compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more increased by 0.11% [2] - Inventory: As of January 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5084 million tons, an increase of 100,100 tons (7.11%) from the previous period [2] - Demand: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises decreased by 5.87% compared to the previous period, and the overall shipment rate decreased by 4.21%. The downstream demand was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2] - Profit: As of January 1, the theoretical profit of the dual - alkali method was - 35.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.17% compared to the previous period. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 95.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.2% compared to the previous period. The cost - side fluctuated little [3][4] Main Logic Summary The soda ash production has decreased, but the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the total output remains high. The rigid demand for soda ash has weakened, and inventory has increased. However, due to continuous losses and a warm macro - environment, there is some short - term support. The short - term price may maintain a volatile and strong trend [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, rubber prices initially declined and then rebounded. Due to the US government shutdown, market risk appetite decreased, suppressing asset prices. Globally, it was still the high - yield period in November, with a large supply of rubber. However, as the weather turned colder, domestic rubber tapping gradually ended, reducing supply pressure. Some domestic tire enterprises were under maintenance, with a slight decline in the startup rate, and high tire enterprise inventories limited their restocking enthusiasm. Bonded area inventories remained high without a turning point, and imports were at a relatively high level. In October, tire production continued to increase year - on - year, tire exports continued a slight positive growth, automobile consumption was temporarily stable, and heavy - truck consumption increased significantly year - on - year for six consecutive months. Looking ahead, as domestic rubber tapping gradually ends, supply pressure will ease, and with the policy support, rubber prices may recover and rise [23]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In November, rubber futures prices initially declined and then rebounded. As of November 30, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 15,410 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton for the month, a 2.15% increase. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton for the month, a 0.37% increase [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) ANRPC production increase from January to September, abundant domestic supply - ANRPC data showed that in September, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%; Indonesia's production was 195,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.86%; Malaysia's production was 33,000 tons, and the year - on - year change details were not clearly presented in the text; Vietnam's production was 151,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.69%. In September, the total ANRPC production was 1.1416 million tons, with a year - on - year change not clearly presented in the text. From January to September, the total ANRPC production was 8.1704 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.33% [9][11][13]. (2) Tire enterprises under maintenance, a slight decline in the startup rate, and a year - on - year decline in tire exports - In October, tire enterprises' startup was at a high level. As of October 30, the startup rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.41%, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.34%. In October, tire exports increased steadily. The monthly export volume of automobile tires in China was 51.73 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.22%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume of new pneumatic tires was 417.21 million, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.01% [11]. (3) Automobile production and sales increased steadily, and heavy - trucks increased year - on - year for six consecutive months - In October, China's automobile sales were 3.2221 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.82%. Among them, passenger car sales were 2.9614 million, and heavy - truck sales were 106,200, a year - on - year increase of 60.02%. Heavy - trucks had year - on - year growth for six consecutive months, with a remarkable growth rate [12]. 3. Future Outlook - With the gradual end of domestic rubber tapping, supply pressure will ease, and with the policy support, rubber prices may recover and rise [23].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash shows a significant increase, with the main contract rising to 1243.00 yuan/ton, up 5.16% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the spot market, manufacturers maintain stable pricing while traders see a slight increase, with the price in the Shahe region rising to 1150 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 13 yuan/ton [2] - The fundamental analysis indicates a weakening in spot prices, with increased maintenance intentions from soda ash producers leading to a month-on-month decline in production; however, long-term supply pressure remains due to new capacity coming online [2] - Demand continues to decline overall, with expectations of a gradual recovery in market supply as industry maintenance concludes; inventory is likely to face phase accumulation pressure [2] - The float glass sector's supply-demand fundamentals remain weak, with no substantial recovery observed in the real estate sector [2] Market Outlook - The float glass production has slightly decreased, and inventory levels are declining; however, the market in East China remains stable with companies primarily focused on maintaining prices [2] - The domestic soda ash market is expected to show weak and stable adjustments, with high supply levels persisting and downstream demand remaining lukewarm, leading to a focus on demand-based inventory replenishment [2] - Soda ash manufacturers are experiencing high inventory levels, and the spot market performance is generally average, with expectations of slight strong fluctuations in the short term [2]