2026.01. 06 美国合众银行财富管理部高级投资策略师哈沃斯（Rob Haworth）表示："能源股的大涨，主要是市 场预期特朗普总统将推动美国企业加大对委内瑞拉的投资，最终实现盈利增长。"他补充道，"美国并 未计划在当地长期驻军，也不会开展持续性军事介入，这意味着整体股市可以不必担忧局势演变为长 期冲突，从而消除了一大潜在顾虑。" 标普500航空航天与国防指数创下历史新高。军工巨头通用动力和洛克希德・马丁的股价也获得提 振，分别上涨3.5%和2.9%。有分析认为，特朗普此次的行动表明，快速军事打击将成为其应对地缘 政治问题的核心政策手段。 本文字数：1912，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 尽管美国上周末对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，但受原油价格上涨以及投资者押注此举不会引发冲击市场 的 大 规 模 地 缘 政 治 冲 突 影 响 ， 美 股 周 一 上 涨 。 截 至 收 盘 ， 道 指 涨 594.79 点 ， 涨 幅 1.23% ， 报 48977.18点，盘中首次突破49000点创下历史新高，纳指涨0.69%，报23395.82点，标普500指数涨 0.64%，报6902.05点。 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the S&P 500 recovering to 6900 points, driven by rising oil prices and investor optimism that recent military actions in Venezuela would not lead to significant geopolitical conflict [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 594.79 points, or 1.23%, closing at 48977.18 points, marking its first intraday breach of 49000 points [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.16%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets [1][5] Sector Performance - The energy sector saw significant gains, with Chevron rising by 5.1% and ExxonMobil by 2.2%, as companies are expected to benefit from the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil infrastructure [2] - Oilfield service companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger also performed well, increasing by 7.8% and nearly 9%, respectively [2] - The S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense Index reached a new all-time high, with major defense contractors General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin seeing stock increases of 3.5% and 2.9% [2] Financial Sector Insights - The S&P 500 Financial Index surged as investors anticipated a 6.7% year-over-year profit growth for the financial sector in the last quarter of the previous year [3] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase both reached historical highs, with stock increases of 3.8% and 2.6%, respectively [3] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector in the U.S. is experiencing a contraction, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropping from 48.2 in November to 47.9, marking the lowest level in 14 months [5] - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for 2026 [5] Commodity Performance - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 1.74% to $58.32 per barrel and Brent crude oil by 1.66% to $61.76 per barrel [6] - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.84% to $4436.90 per ounce and silver futures up by 7.95% to $76.15 per ounce [6]

委内瑞拉总统马杜罗出庭，国际油价收涨超1.5%。 *三大股指高开高走，标普500收复6900点； *中长期美债收益率回落，10年期美债报4.16%； *金融板块发力，高盛、摩根大通创历史新高。 尽管美国上周末对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，但受原油价格上涨以及投资者押注此举不会引发冲击市场的 大规模地缘政治冲突影响，美股周一上涨。截至收盘，道指涨594.79点，涨幅1.23%，报48977.18点， 盘中首次突破49000点创下历史新高，纳指涨0.69%，报23395.82点，标普500指数涨0.64%，报6902.05 点。 【热门股表现】 能源板块走强，市场预期相关企业将从委内瑞拉石油基础设施重建中获益。雪佛龙涨5.1%，该公司目 前在委内瑞拉已有业务布局，而委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量。埃克森美孚涨2.2%。与此 同时，有望助力委内瑞拉能源重建的油田服务公司表现不俗，哈里伯顿、斯伦贝谢分别上涨7.8%和近 9%。 中概股低开高走，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.49%，拼多多涨2.9%，京东涨0.4%，阿里巴巴涨0.3%，百 度跌0.4%，网易跌1.7%。 【市场概述】 据央视新闻报道，当地时间1月5日，遭美 ...

Core Insights - The report from ING highlights the market's focus on the recent U.S. attack on Venezuela and its potential impacts on regional and international relations [1][2] - Initial market reactions included a mild "risk-off" sentiment, with gold and Swiss franc gaining traction, while the oil market remains uncertain regarding Venezuela's oil production [1] Group 1: Immediate Market Reactions - The initial response to the Venezuela incident was a moderate "risk-off" trend, with gold and Swiss franc being favored, and the dollar receiving some support [1] - Stock index futures did not show excessive reaction to the current situation, while the oil market fluctuated as it assessed the short- and medium-term impacts on Venezuela's oil production [1] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Implications - Latin American currencies may face pressure, particularly the Colombian peso, with the Mexican peso also likely to be affected [1] - The uncertainty in oil supply due to the incident could lead to increased risks of supply disruptions if the power transition in Venezuela is prolonged and chaotic [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term market impact will depend on the extent to which Venezuela can increase its oil production, which may take 5 to 10 years to reach levels of 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day [2] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has faced pressure, and the future developments in Venezuela will influence whether the euro will decline further [2] Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - Geopolitical factors are significant, with the possibility of U.S. military involvement in Venezuela not being ruled out, which could lead to a more pessimistic outlook on U.S. fiscal health and the dollar's future [2] - A more confrontational U.S. foreign policy may prompt related countries to reconsider their holdings of U.S. assets [2]

Group 1: Major Asset Performance - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices saw mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.0% and the DAX increasing by 0.7%, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 fell by 1.5% and 1.0% respectively [2][8] - In the US, the S&P 500 sectors mostly declined, with energy and utilities up by 3.3% and 0.9%, while consumer discretionary and information technology fell by 3.2% and 1.5% [8] - Emerging market indices showed positive trends, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 4.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index by 3.2% [2] Group 2: Bond Yields and Currency Movements - Developed countries' 10-year bond yields mostly increased, with the US yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [19] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields also saw increases, particularly in Turkey, which rose by 133.0 basis points to 29.06% [22] - The US dollar index increased by 0.4% to 98.46, while other currencies depreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound [25][35] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.0% to $57.3 per barrel, while gold and silver prices fell significantly, with gold down by 5.0% to $4317.8 per ounce and silver down by 10.3% to $70.7 per ounce [40][46] - The prices of base metals increased, with LME copper rising by 2.4% to $12510 per ton and LME aluminum by 1.8% to $3010 per ton [46] Group 4: Geopolitical Events and Economic Policies - The US military conducted airstrikes in Venezuela, escalating tensions in the region, as part of a broader strategy against the Maduro regime [56] - Japan's government announced a record-high budget for the fiscal year 2026, totaling 122.3 trillion yen, marking a 6.3% increase from the previous year [61] - The US postponed tariff increases on furniture and semiconductor imports, maintaining the current 25% tariff rate for an additional year [66]

记者丨 吴斌 编辑丨和佳 在美国"闪击"委内瑞拉后，金融市场也随之震动，现货黄金和白银价格大幅上涨，国际油价则反应平淡，甚至"不涨反跌"。 1月5日，布伦特原油开盘一度短暂下跌1.2%至60美元/桶，不过此后价格有所反弹，截至22：22，涨近1%。贵金属市场的反应更加激烈，现 货黄金在经历了一周的下跌后强劲反弹，大涨超2%，冲破4420美元/盎司关口；现货白银大涨逾5%，升破76美元/盎司，现货铂金、现货钯 金涨幅均超5%，股债汇市场暂时反应不大。 | W | 贵金属 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | GFEX + | 452.85 | 8.88% | | PD.GFE | | | | COMEX M-自 | 76.4250 | 7.62% | | QI.CMX | | | | COMEX自银 | 76.420 | 7.61% | | SI.CMX | | | | GFEX铂 | 583.95 | 6.48% | | PT.GFE | | | | NYMEX铂 | 2276.3 | 6.52% | | PL.NYM | | | | 现货铂金(美元/ | ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis report from ING highlights the market's focus on the recent U.S. attack on Venezuela and its potential short-term, medium-term, and long-term impacts on regional and international relations [1] Group 1: Immediate Market Reactions - The initial market reaction to the January 3rd event in Venezuela was a mild "risk-off" sentiment, with gold and Swiss franc gaining traction, while the dollar received some support [1] - Stock index futures did not show excessive reaction to the current situation, while the oil market remained volatile as it assessed the short-term and medium-term impacts on Venezuela's oil production [1] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Implications - Investors may prefer the liquidity of the dollar in the face of uncertainty in the coming days, which could put pressure on Latin American currencies, particularly the Colombian peso and potentially the Mexican peso [1] - The oil market is expected to face increased uncertainty regarding supply, with short-term impacts largely dependent on the nature of the power transition in Venezuela [1] Group 3: Long-term Projections - The long-term market impact will depend on how much Venezuela can increase its oil production, which may take 5 to 10 years to reach levels of 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day [2] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has faced pressure after briefly exceeding 1.18 in late December 2025, with future developments in Venezuela potentially influencing further declines in the euro [2] Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - Geopolitical factors are significant, as U.S. President Trump has not ruled out the possibility of deploying ground troops to Venezuela, which could lead to a complex military situation in multiple Latin American countries [2] - If the U.S. becomes embroiled in such conflicts, investors may adopt a more pessimistic outlook on U.S. fiscal health and the dollar's future [2]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [4] Core Views - The report indicates that oil prices experienced fluctuations and a downward trend in December 2025, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026, despite previous plans to increase output [1][16] - Demand for crude oil is expected to grow in 2025 and 2026, with estimates ranging from 83,000 to 130,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 86,000 to 138,000 barrels per day for 2026 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 [1][12] - The fluctuations in oil prices were attributed to various geopolitical events, including the attack on the Russian Friendship Pipeline and sanctions on Venezuela [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026, following a period of planned increases in late 2025 [1][16] - The report highlights that OPEC+ aims to maintain a balance in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026 [3][36] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies project an increase in crude oil demand for 2025 and 2026, with specific figures provided by OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] - The report notes that the refining industry in China is facing overcapacity issues, leading to stricter controls on new refining projects [3][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development, as key investment opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of the financial market is on the recent U.S. attack on Venezuela, with investors assessing its short-term, medium-term, and long-term impacts on regional and international relations [1] - Initial market reactions included a mild "risk-off" sentiment, with gold and Swiss franc gaining traction, while the dollar received some support [1] - Oil market remains uncertain as investors evaluate the short-term and medium-term impacts on Venezuela's oil production, with current supply at approximately 500,000 barrels per day due to sanctions [1] Group 2 - The long-term market impact will depend on Venezuela's ability to increase oil production, which could take 5 to 10 years to reach levels of 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day [2] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has faced pressure, with geopolitical factors influencing its future trajectory [2] - U.S. President Trump's potential military involvement in Venezuela could lead to a more pessimistic outlook on U.S. fiscal health and the dollar, prompting investors to reconsider U.S. asset holdings [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report by ING is that the recent U.S. attack on Venezuela has significant implications for the financial markets, particularly concerning the dollar and oil prices, with investors assessing short-term, medium-term, and long-term impacts [1][2] - The initial market reaction to the event on January 3 was a mild "risk-off" sentiment, with gold and the Swiss franc gaining traction, while the dollar received some support [1][2] - The oil market is experiencing uncertainty regarding the short-term impact on Venezuela's oil production, which is currently assessed to be around 500,000 barrels per day due to sanctions [3][4] Group 2 - The future of the oil market will depend on how much Venezuela can increase its oil production, with estimates suggesting it could take 5 to 10 years to reach a level of 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day [4] - The euro to dollar exchange rate briefly surpassed 1.18 in late December 2025 but is now under pressure, with the future development of the Venezuelan situation likely to influence further declines [4] - Geopolitical factors are critical, as U.S. President Trump has not ruled out the possibility of deploying ground troops to Venezuela, which could lead to a more pessimistic outlook on U.S. fiscal health and the dollar's future [4]