投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 中东地缘局势升温，国际油价延续上涨势头 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:中东地缘局势升温，国际油价延续上涨势头 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international geopolitical situation is rapidly changing, with the US - EU relationship facing a significant rift. Europe is promoting "technological sovereignty" and "sovereign cloud" strategies to reduce dependence on US tech giants, which may reshape the trans - Atlantic digital trade pattern [6]. - In the futures market, the "spring rally" in the stock index futures is ongoing, with positive policy expectations, a rising RMB exchange rate, and a strengthened re - inflation expectation. However, the withdrawal of rescue funds has led to a significant divergence in the market, which is expected to converge later [7][8]. - For various commodities, their trends are affected by different factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, fuel oil prices are influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand fundamentals; precious metals like gold and silver are showing strong trends; base metals such as copper and zinc are also affected by macro - economic data and industry news [10][15][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Situation - The US - EU relationship has deeply split due to issues like Greenland. Europe is promoting "technological sovereignty" and "sovereign cloud" strategies to reduce dependence on US tech giants, which account for 83% of the European market [6]. Stock Index Futures - The "spring rally" is in progress, with positive policy expectations, a rising RMB exchange rate, and a strengthened re - inflation expectation. The withdrawal of rescue funds has led to a significant divergence in the market, which is expected to converge later. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the appointment of the next Fed chairman [7][8]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold has reached a new high, and silver is approaching 100. Their trends are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and exchange - rate fluctuations [15]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The price is strengthening due to increased disturbances in copper mines. The macro - economic data of the US and the EU, as well as industry news such as strikes and production cuts, have an impact on the copper market [19]. - **Zinc**: It is running strongly, influenced by factors such as inventory changes and macro - economic data [22]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [25]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating strongly, with significant increases in both futures and spot prices [29]. - **Aluminum**: It is oscillating strongly, while alumina is consolidating at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [32]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum is rising strongly, and palladium should be vigilant about the supplementary increase momentum [34]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The situation in Indonesia is uncertain, affecting the nickel and stainless - steel markets. The price of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron prices [39]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is oscillating at a high level, supported by strong current fundamentals [45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is oscillating strongly due to upstream factory production cuts, and attention should be paid to the spot trading situation of polysilicon [50]. - **Steel Products**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are oscillating widely due to sector sentiment resonance [53]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are oscillating widely due to sector sentiment resonance [57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are oscillating within a range, affected by industry and capital factors [61][62]. - **Power Coal**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is fluctuating narrowly in the short term [66]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: They have a strong unilateral trend, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, processing fees, and market sentiment [68][74][75][76]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost support [78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is running strongly, but attention should be paid to marginal valuation pressure [82]. - **LLDPE and PP**: Their trends are weak, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment [85][88]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating at a low level, affected by factors such as cost decline and supply - demand collapse [91]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is oscillating, affected by factors such as downstream demand and inventory pressure [96]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, and the market demand is coming to an end [103]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating with support, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations [107]. - **Urea**: The price center is slowly rising, affected by factors such as market sentiment and supply - demand relationships [112]. - **Styrene**: It is oscillating strongly, but attention should be paid to the high - inventory situation and the restart of parking devices [115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, and the price is weakly stable and oscillating [118]. - **LPG and Propylene**: They are running strongly in the short term, affected by factors such as geopolitical disturbances and supply - demand relationships [123]. - **PVC**: It is oscillating within a range, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and market sentiment [133]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is rising strongly, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues its upward trend [136]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillating market, and short positions in the 04 contract should be gradually reduced for observation, while short positions in the 10 contract can be held as appropriate [138]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They have a strong short - term trend, affected by factors such as raw material prices and market sentiment [149]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost - profit situations [152]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating strongly, affected by factors such as inventory changes and market sentiment [156]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is oscillating strongly in the short term, and the oil - meal ratio of soybean oil is rising [159]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal may follow the oscillation of US soybeans, and the spot price of soybeans is stable with a rebound in the futures market [164]. - **Corn**: It is oscillating strongly, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and price fluctuations [167]. - **Sugar**: It is consolidating at a low level, affected by factors such as global supply - demand relationships and import policies [171]. - **Cotton**: It is oscillating strongly, affected by factors such as domestic and international supply - demand relationships and export data [176]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and feed prices [181]. - **Hogs**: After the demand expectation for the Laba Festival is fulfilled, attention should be paid to the supply contradiction [184]. - **Peanuts**: It is oscillating, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and spot prices [188].

今日周一(1月26日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1146.74附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1142.36元/克， 涨幅3.58%，最高触及1147.00元/克，最低下探1108.50元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 值得注意的是，这一议题已突破党派壁垒。绿党财政发言人卡特琳娜·贝克也公开声援，称黄金是"稳定 与信任的锚点"，不应沦为地缘政治的棋子。 在特朗普对盟友言辞日趋强硬的背景下，基民盟内部亦有越来越多声音倾向支持转移黄金。杜塞尔多夫 大学教授乌尔丽克·奈尔总结道："美国已不再是一个可靠的伙伴。"这场关于黄金的争论，实质上是对 欧美互信基石的一次严峻考验。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金期货随国际金价延续强劲上涨趋势，周一开盘后进一步走强。技术面上，均线系统呈现典型的多头 排列格局，为价格提供了稳固支撑。日线级别上，布林带向上开口，价格沿上轨运行，显示上涨动能充 足，同时MACD指标也维持金叉状态。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 作为全球第二大官方黄金储备国，德国目前约有1236吨(价值约1640亿欧元)的黄金沉睡在纽约联储的金 库中。然而，随着地缘政治格局的动荡，这笔巨额财 ...

广州期货认为，当下驱动铜价上涨逻辑有所松动，但铜矿供应脆弱+新兴领域带来的刚性需求，以及战 略资源属性愈发强化，铜价底部依旧坚实，调整空间相对有限，倾向于震荡蓄势后延续涨势。 铜业股午前集体走强，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨12.02%，报16.68港元；五矿资源(01208)涨 11.02%，报5.05港元；中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨7.25%，报233.6港元；紫金矿业（601899） (02899)涨5.05%，报42.46港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨4.07%，报47.06港元。 消息面上，正信期货表示，宏观预期情绪有所降温，但地缘担忧仍存，尽管美国政府持续施压美联储， 但市场对于降息定价较为保守，同时通胀数据暂未超预期，失业率回落，美国自身经济韧性仍存。产业 端来看，虽然远期的供需预期暂难证伪，但近段弱现实特征延续，全球库存进一步增加至100万吨。铜 价在10万关口调整后再度反弹，主要还是受地缘以及金价指引，价格高位震荡为主。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The call for Germany to repatriate its gold reserves from the United States has intensified due to changing transatlantic relations and the unpredictability of the Trump administration, with prominent economists and politicians advocating for this move as a means to enhance Germany's strategic independence [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic and Political Context - Germany holds the world's second-largest gold reserves, approximately €164 billion (1,236 tons), with about 37% stored in New York [1][4]. - The current geopolitical climate and the unpredictability of U.S. policies have led to concerns about the safety of Germany's gold stored in the U.S. [3][4]. - Prominent figures, including Emanuel Mönch and Michael Jäger, argue that the risks associated with keeping gold in the U.S. outweigh the benefits, especially in light of recent U.S. actions [3][4]. Group 2: Public and Political Support - The issue of repatriating gold has transitioned from being a fringe topic associated with far-right parties to a mainstream discussion among various political factions in Germany [4][5]. - Politicians like Katharina Beck have publicly supported the repatriation, emphasizing the importance of national sovereignty in economic and security policies [4]. - The German government, while facing increasing internal pressure, has not yet made a definitive move to withdraw its gold reserves [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, reflects growing investor interest and concerns over geopolitical stability [1]. - There is a broader reflection within Germany regarding its financial assets in the U.S., including potential discussions about selling U.S. dollar assets amid rising tensions [6][7]. - Analysts have noted that Europe holds approximately $8 trillion in U.S. bonds and stocks, raising questions about the sustainability of this investment given the current geopolitical landscape [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Strong - biased, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Iran situation and Trump's actions, along with Fed - related factors, support the long - term strategic value of gold and silver [1][3] - Copper has supply constraints in the short - to - medium term, and its long - term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and growing green demand [1][5][6] - Zinc rebounds due to unexpected inventory reduction in the off - season and active enterprise restocking [1][7][9] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and demand differentiation [1][11][12] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of overseas supply contraction and domestic high - inventory and weak - consumption conditions [1][14][16] - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish as supply is tight and demand is expected to increase [1][18][19] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold futures rose 8.44% weekly, approaching the $5000 key psychological level; COMEX silver futures soared 16.63% weekly, breaking through the $100 mark [2] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical tensions, Fed - related factors, and central bank gold - buying support long - term strategic value; silver follows gold's safe - haven property [1][3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding; domestic gold has short - term support at 1085, and domestic silver at 23150; long - term bullish in 2026 [1][3] Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly; for example, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 2.21% [4] - **Core Logic**: Japanese smelters face pressure in TC/RC negotiations, and Chile delays the peak of copper production; short - term supply is tight, and long - term demand from green sectors is strong [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profit on long positions; long - term, bullish; SHFE copper focuses on the range of [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [13000, 13500] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc prices are rising; the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.51% [7] - **Core Logic**: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026; domestic inventory reduction in the off - season exceeds expectations, and enterprises restock actively [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices; enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging; SHFE zinc focuses on [24500, 24500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [11] - **Core Logic**: The output of electrolytic aluminum increases, and inventory accumulates; the alumina market is in surplus [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory; the main operation range is [23300 - 25300] [13] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices rebound under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [15] - **Core Logic**: Indonesia reduces nickel ore production targets, and domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates; stainless steel is in the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory; the main operation range of nickel is [135000 - 153000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opens and closes higher, hitting a new high [18] - **Core Logic**: Supply is tight due to reduced production and uncertain resumption of production; demand is expected to increase as downstream prepares for the Spring Festival [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [17300 - 185000] [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a state of high activity with a strong upward trend, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices. The market成交 remains high, and the upward momentum is expected to continue. However, there are also potential risks, such as a reversal in market liquidity, a burst of the US AI bubble, and lower - than - expected economic growth [20]. - In different commodity sectors: - Agricultural products: Overall, the supply and demand situation varies. For example, protein meal faces supply pressure, while sugar has supply - side issues both domestically and internationally. Oils and fats are in a state of wide - range oscillation [25][28][31]. - Metals: Precious metals like gold and silver are strongly influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to maintain a strong upward trend. Base metals have different trends, such as copper being in a high - level consolidation phase, and iron ore having a weakening fundamental outlook [70][77][65]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Other products like asphalt, fuel oil, and LPG also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [120][122][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The IC and IM indices are accelerating upwards. The market enthusiasm is high, and the upward trend is expected to continue. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are favored. Trading strategies include going long on IM and IC in the medium - to - long term, and using grid trading for IF and IH in the short term [18][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Economic data is mixed, and the central bank's attitude towards liquidity is positive. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL and consider short - selling the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is increasing, and the overall market is declining. The US soybean market is under pressure due to a generally loose supply - demand situation, while the domestic market may have some support in the short - term but still faces long - term pressure [25][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is falling, while the Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong. The international sugar market is affected by the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, while the domestic market is under supply pressure but has some support at low prices [28][30]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sector is expected to continue wide - range oscillations. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of various oils is in different states. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and inventory [31][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port spot price is rising, and the market is in a strong - side oscillation. The US corn market is affected by export sales and weather, while the domestic market has a stable spot price in the short - term but still faces pressure [35][37]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure is improving, and the spot price is gradually rising. However, the overall supply pressure still exists, and the price is still under pressure [38][40]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. The import volume is decreasing, and the oil mill has a profit. The 05 contract is recommended to go long at low prices [41][43]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price is rising. The supply is gradually reducing production, but the 03 contract may have limited upward space due to the weak demand after the Spring Festival [44][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. The inventory is low, the cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the 5 - month contract price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [50][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The sales progress is fast, and the improvement in Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile factories' production capacity support the market. The short - term market is expected to oscillate within a range [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The steel production and inventory are in a complex state, and the cost is supported. The market is expected to remain oscillating before the Spring Festival [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are lackluster, and attention should be paid to capital disturbances. The supply of coking coal is not tight, and the downstream replenishment is not strong. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [61][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is at a low level, and the iron ore price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the high - valuation situation is expected to be difficult to sustain. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is low and there is a need for restoration, and the short - term market is oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are improving marginally, and the cost is supported [67][69]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold has broken through the $5000 mark, and silver has entered the "three - digit" era. Geopolitical factors are the main drivers, and the prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [70][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical events have led to a rift in trust between Europe and the United States, and the precious metals are strongly rising. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium [74][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price is in a high - level consolidation phase. The increase in inventory and the uncertainty of tariffs have an impact on the short - term price, but the long - term supply shortage and strong financial attributes support the price [77][79]. - **Alumina**: The market is mainly oscillating at a low level. The supply has short - term maintenance and production reduction, and the fundamentals are still weak [80][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price is oscillating and rebounding. The global shortage is more prominent overseas, and the downstream has replenishment sentiment, supporting the price [84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Driven by risk appetite, the alloy is oscillating and rebounding with the sector. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [85][86]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the change in domestic social inventory. The supply of zinc concentrate is still in short supply, and the supply of refined zinc is increasing. The market is expected to oscillate and rebound [87][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support at the bottom. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead may decline. The demand is weakening, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [93][97]. - **Nickel**: The long - term expectation is leading the nickel price to rise. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The price is expected to have upward space after high - level consolidation [98][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to remain high [102]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The news of production reduction is fermenting, but the coking coal is dragging down the market. The short - term market is oscillating strongly. If the production reduction is implemented, the price may rise [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is declining, and the short - term futures are under pressure. The high inventory and weak demand may lead to a decline in the spot price, and the futures should be treated with a short - term bearish view [105][106]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The price may continue to rise, but there are also regulatory risks [110][112]. - **Tin**: The tin price has increased in volume and broken through. The inventory is increasing, the production is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely at a high level [114][116]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is continuing to decline, and attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. The freight rate is in the off - season decline process, and the impact of export tax rebates and geopolitical factors on the market needs to be observed [117][118]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Driven by risk appetite, geopolitical sentiment still exists. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps in Europe and the United States are boosting the price, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [120][121]. - **Asphalt**: Low inventory and low production support the spot price. The market is following the high - level oscillation of crude oil, and the demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches [122][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals remain weak, and geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are expected to be stable and weak in the first quarter, while the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing [127][128]. - **LPG**: International propane is in short supply, and chemical demand is declining. The international market is tight, the supply of domestic liquefied gas is increasing slightly, and the demand for downstream chemicals is decreasing [130]. - **Natural Gas**: It is expected that the upward space of LNG price is limited, and attention should be paid to the market risk of US HH near the delivery date. The short - term price is supported by cold weather, but the long - term demand growth is slow, and the price is expected to decline [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention is increasing, and the aromatics sector is in a strong atmosphere. The PX supply is at a high level, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital sentiment [136][138]. - **BZ & EB**: There are frequent unexpected device problems, and the export transactions are good. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the supply of styrene is affected by device problems. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [140][142]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Saudi Arabia's maintenance is expected to reduce imports, and the Lianyungang device is switching production. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [143][145]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weakening. The load is expected to decrease, and the price is following the cost side [146][148]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The maintenance is accelerating in late January, and the price is following the cost side. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market supply and demand are supported [150][152]. - **Plastics (L & PP)**: The operation of the rubber and plastics industry is continuously improving. The prices of L and PP are rising, and the industry's profitability is improving [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price and the futures market are expected to be weak [155][158]. - **PVC**: The price continues to rise. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, the export is expected to be strong, and the price is expected to continue to be strong [159][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is oscillating and repairing. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price decline is expected to slow down [161][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. The market is affected by the real - estate situation, and the price is expected to decline with a narrowing range [164][166]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate is declining, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. The market is supported by the overall strength of chemical products [166][168]. - **Urea**: The market is mainly oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [169][171]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Chilean fire on the pulp supply. The supply is greater than the demand, and the price is expected to be bullish, but the impact of the fire needs to be observed [172][175]. - **Logs**: Due to natural disasters in New Zealand, the supply is tightening, and the spot price is slightly strong. The price is affected by supply and demand in different regions, and the long - position should be held [176][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound momentum. The supply is still sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [180][182]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The NR warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory of different types of rubber is in different states, and the short - position is recommended for RU and NR [183][186]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts are increasing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the market should be observed [186][189].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical events have led to trust issues, causing a significant increase in precious metal prices. The market's focus has shifted from the Fed's personnel changes to geopolitical and tariff crises, weakening the impact of economic data. The weakening US dollar index has contributed to the rise in precious metal prices. From the perspective of the supply - demand balance in 2026, platinum is in a tight - balance state, while palladium is moving from a supply deficit to a surplus. Platinum has stronger upward momentum than palladium [4]. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: Last week, the market's main narrative shifted from the Fed's personnel changes to geopolitical and tariff crises. Trump's statements affected the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Despite the strong US economic data, the US dollar index was weak, and European long - term capital's confidence in US dollar assets was shaken, potentially reshaping the global capital flow pattern and driving up precious metal prices [4]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: In the 2026 supply - demand balance sheet, platinum is in a tight - balance state, and palladium is moving from a decade - long supply deficit to a supply surplus. Platinum has stronger upward - driving forces than palladium [4]. Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side trading**: Hold long positions in platinum based on the 5 - day moving average (600 - 640), and stop losses and wait if it breaks below. Hold long positions in palladium cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average, and be aware of the callback risk due to weak fundamental support. Pay attention to position management due to the large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium and the lack of night trading [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the market to go long on platinum and short on palladium when the price difference is between 140 - 160 [6]. - **Options**: Wait and see because the time value is too high [6]. Chapter 2: Trading and Arbitrage Data Tracking Weekly Trading Data of Guangzhou Futures Exchange - As of January 23, the total open interest of PT contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 28,152 lots, a decrease of 2,442 lots compared to the previous period, and the total weekly trading volume was approximately RMB 7.0719 billion. The total open interest of PD contracts was 13,665 lots, a decrease of 1,329 lots, and the total weekly trading volume was approximately RMB 2.1002 billion [25]. Spot Arbitrage - **Platinum**: The price difference between the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 4.40 yuan/gram, with a theoretical cost of 4.98 yuan/gram and a theoretical profit of - 0.58 yuan/gram, indicating no arbitrage opportunity. The price difference between the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the London Platinum and Palladium Market is 76.96 yuan/gram, with a theoretical cost of 74.88 yuan/gram and a theoretical profit of 2.09 yuan/gram, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [27][28]. - **Palladium**: The price difference between the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the domestic spot palladium is 15.45 yuan/gram, with a theoretical cost of 4.28 yuan/gram and a theoretical profit of 11.17 yuan/gram, indicating an arbitrage opportunity. The price difference between the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the London Platinum and Palladium Market is 72.80 yuan/gram, with a theoretical cost of 55.35 yuan/gram and a theoretical profit of 17.46 yuan/gram, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [27][28]. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Tracking Platinum - Supply and Demand - According to the WPIC forecast, platinum will be in a basic supply - demand balance in 2026. Its demand structure is relatively healthy, with stable demand in major areas such as the automotive, chemical, and jewelry industries. In the investment field, the WPIC is pessimistic about platinum's demand in 2026, but it still maintains a basic balance. In the future, there may be further upward potential if there is a more severe structural spot shortage or a further reduction in the current ground inventory and if investors believe that platinum will experience continuous high - speed growth in specific fields [33][34]. Palladium - Supply and Demand - In 2026, palladium's supply is expected to increase by 5.85% year - on - year, while demand is expected to decline by 1.27%. A supply surplus of 20.37 tons is expected, which may be a turning point from a long - term supply shortage to a surplus. Fundamentally, the support for palladium prices may be limited, and in the future, its price may fluctuate significantly due to macro - environment, linkage with platinum prices, market sentiment, and structural spot shortages [35][36][37]. CFTC Positions - **Platinum**: As of January 20, the long positions of platinum asset management institutions in the CFTC were 18,423 contracts, the short positions were 12,925 contracts, and the net long positions were 5,498 contracts (a decrease of 2,367 contracts compared to the previous period). The long positions of commercial institutions were 19,867 contracts, the short positions were 41,649 contracts, and the net short positions were 21,782 contracts (a decrease of 2,024 contracts compared to the previous period) [40]. - **Palladium**: As of January 20, the long positions of palladium asset management institutions in the CFTC were 6,554 contracts, the short positions were 6,809 contracts, and the net long positions were - 255 contracts (a decrease of 239 contracts compared to the previous period). The long positions of commercial institutions were 5,457 contracts, the short positions were 8,219 contracts, and the net short positions were 2,762 contracts (a decrease of 128 contracts compared to the previous period) [47]. Inventory - **Platinum**: As of January 23, 2026, the total CME platinum inventory was 665,888.20 troy ounces, an increase of 1,495.48 troy ounces compared to January 16. The registered inventory decreased by 31,893.811 troy ounces, and the unregistered inventory increased by 33,389.29 troy ounces [48]. - **Palladium**: As of January 23, 2026, the total CME palladium inventory was 216,266.31 troy ounces, an increase of 9,246.30 troy ounces compared to January 16. The registered inventory increased by 4,803.228 troy ounces, and the unregistered inventory increased by 4,443.068 troy ounces [53]. Lease Rates - **Platinum**: The document provides the one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year annualized lease rates of platinum, showing their historical trends from 2020 - 2026 [57][58]. - **Palladium**: The document provides the one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year annualized lease rates of palladium, showing their historical trends from 2021 - 2026 [60][61].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling for copper; strengthening waiting and seeing for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish trend for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, benzene, rubber, urea, methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins; waiting and seeing for soda ash [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; weak oscillation for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not advisable to chase short positions in the short term for eggs; being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean oil and palm oil [1] Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances are increasing, which strengthens the precious metals sector. Stock indices may trade in a range, and government bonds are expected to oscillate. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Rebar is in a short - term range - bound state. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly. Copper is affected by the game between macro - level support and weak fundamentals. Aluminum may continue high - level adjustments. Nickel is affected by various factors and is recommended to be observed. Tin supply is tight, and it is recommended for range trading. Silver and gold are affected by geopolitical and economic factors, with their medium - term price centers moving up. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly. PVC may have bottomed out. Caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Benzene styrene has a high valuation and is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. Rubber has cost support and may continue to rise. Urea supply is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Methanol is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, and it is recommended to wait and see. Cotton and cotton yarn have long - term optimistic expectations. Apples and jujubes are in a weak oscillation state. Hogs are in a bottom - building stage, with different strategies for different periods. Eggs are not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. Corn is in a short - term balance and has a loose supply - demand pattern in the medium to long term. Soybean meal has different trends for different contracts. Oils have different trends, with rapeseed oil being weak and soybean and palm oil having limited rebounds [1][5][6][8][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][30][33][34][35][36][37][43][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical disturbances increase, and the precious metals sector strengthens, causing stock indices to potentially trade in a range [1][5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The long - end and ultra - long - end of government bonds face resistance in further decline, while short - end varieties have strong allocation enthusiasm [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals, with supply disturbances potentially limiting the downside, but demand weakness is the dominant factor [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price rebounded on Friday, with a slightly low static valuation. In the short term, it is in a range - bound state due to a short - term policy vacuum and small supply - demand contradictions [8] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 1050 - 1070. The manufacturer's shipping speed slows down, and the market lacks upward momentum [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling. The price is in a high - level oscillation, with strong macro - level support but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening waiting and seeing. The price may continue high - level adjustments due to factors such as changes in supply and demand and macro - level sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing. Affected by factors such as Indonesia's quota reduction and weak fundamentals, the price has risen, but it is recommended to wait and see as the market has fully priced in [14] - **Tin**: Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions. The supply is tight, and the downstream maintains rigid demand. It is recommended to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [15][16] - **Silver**: Bullish trend. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16] - **Gold**: Range trading. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to trade in a range and be cautious about chasing high prices [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The bottom may have been reached. The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for structural upgrading. It is recommended to take a long - term low - buying approach [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: Waiting and seeing. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the upside is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to supply - side adjustments and other factors [19] - **Benzene Styrene**: Range trading. The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20][21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, and the price may continue to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [20][21] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1730 - 1830. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22][23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the inland area recovers, and the demand is mixed. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and supply factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The cost support is strengthened, but the supply increases and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply - demand contradiction is relieved, and the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27] - **Apples**: Weak oscillation. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading of farmers' goods is slow, and the prices in some areas are loose [27] - **Jujubes**: Weak oscillation. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the production capacity is being reduced, but it is still above the equilibrium level, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [30][31][33] - **Eggs**: Not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the production capacity needs time to clear, and it is necessary to pay attention to external factors [33][34] - **Corn**: Being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Shorting on rallies. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term price is under pressure. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [36] - **Oils**: Weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean and palm oil. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to spread trading [37][43][44]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Reached a new high [2] - Silver: Approaching 100 [2] - Copper: Price strengthened due to increased disturbances in copper mines [2][9] - Zinc: Operating strongly [2][12] - Lead: Price supported by a decrease in LME inventory [2][15] - Tin: Oscillating strongly [2][18] - Aluminum: Oscillating strongly [2][22] - Alumina: Consolidating at the bottom [2][22] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22] - Platinum: Rising sharply [2][24] - Palladium: Be cautious of the potential for a catch - up rally [2][24] - Nickel: Uncertainty over Indonesian events, with a game between hedging and speculative positions [2][31] - Stainless steel: Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia intensified, and the rise in nickel - iron prices supported the price center [2][29] - Lithium carbonate: High - level oscillation supported by strong reality [2][35] - Industrial silicon: The upstream factories cut production, and the futures price oscillated strongly [2][40] - Polysilicon: Focus on spot trading [2][40] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][43] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][43] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with an upward cost expectation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][47] - Coke: Range - bound oscillation with industrial and capital cooperation [2][51] - Coking coal: Range - bound oscillation with industrial and capital cooperation [2][52] - Steam coal: Supply and demand tend to weaken, with short - term prices fluctuating in a narrow range [2][56] - p - Xylene: Unilateral upward trend [2][58] - PTA: Unilateral upward trend [2][58] - MEG: Unilateral upward trend [2][58] - Synthetic rubber: Operating strongly, but be aware of marginal valuation pressure [2][68] - LLDPE: Risk preference continued to spill over, and the basis weakened significantly [2][71] - PP: Low production scheduling continued, with limited profit recovery [2][74] - Caustic soda: Oscillating at a low level [2][77] - Glass: The price of the original sheet remained stable [2][82] - Methanol: Oscillation with support [2][86] - Urea: The oscillation center moved up [2][91] - Styrene: Oscillating strongly [2][94] - Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [2][97] - LPG: Strong short - term geopolitical disturbances [2][102] - Propylene: Upward trend, but the rally slowed down [2][102] - PVC: Range - bound oscillation [2][113] - Fuel oil: Rising strongly, with increasing volatility [2][114] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Continuing the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels on the overseas market fell to a new low again [2][114] - Container shipping index (European route): Oscillating market; Gradually reduce short positions in the 04 contract and hold short positions in the 10 contract as appropriate [2][117] - Staple fiber: Short - term upward trend on January 26, 2026 [2][130] - Bottle chips: Short - term upward trend on January 26, 2026 [2][130] - Offset printing paper: Wait - and - see [2][133] - Pure benzene: Oscillating strongly [2][137] - Palm oil: Short - term oscillation with an upward bias due to multiple factors [2][140] - Soybean oil: Lack of themes for US soybeans, and the oil - to - meal ratio rebounded [2][140] - Soybean meal: May oscillate following US soybeans [2][145] - Soybean: The spot price was stable, and the futures price rebounded and oscillated [2][145] - Corn: Oscillating strongly [2][148] - Sugar: Consolidating at a low level [2][152] - Cotton: Oscillating strongly on January 26, 2026 [2][157] - Eggs: The spot price was strong during the pre - holiday peak season [2][162] - Hogs: The demand expectation for the Laba Festival was fulfilled, and focus on supply contradictions [2][165] - Peanuts: Oscillating [2][169] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market for various commodities on January 26, 2026. It includes the latest price data, trading volume, open interest, and other fundamental information for each commodity, as well as relevant macro and industry news. The report also gives a trend strength assessment for each commodity, which can help investors understand the market trends and make investment decisions [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold reached a new high, and silver was approaching 100. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose by 2.11%, and Comex silver 2602 rose by 3.51%. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price strengthened due to increased disturbances in copper mines, such as strikes and environmental fines. The trend strength was 1 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: Operating strongly, with an increase in the LME zinc price. The trend strength was 1 [2][12]. - **Lead**: The price was supported by a decrease in LME inventory. The trend strength was 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Oscillating strongly, with significant increases in both the domestic and overseas markets. The trend strength was 1 [2][18]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum was oscillating strongly, alumina was consolidating at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy was following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy was 1, while that of alumina was - 1 [2][22]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum was rising sharply, and palladium should be watched for potential catch - up rallies. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][24]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, the situation in Indonesia was uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Stainless steel prices were supported by concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia and the rise in nickel - iron prices. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][29][31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High - level oscillation supported by strong reality. The trend strength was 0 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was oscillating strongly due to upstream factory production cuts, and polysilicon required attention to spot trading. The trend strength of industrial silicon was 1, and that of polysilicon was 0 [2][40]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Wide - range oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][43]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Wide - range oscillation, with ferrosilicon's cost expectation rising. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Range - bound oscillation with industrial and capital cooperation. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][51][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Supply and demand tended to weaken, with short - term prices fluctuating in a narrow range. The trend strength was not mentioned [2][56]. - **p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: All showed a unilateral upward trend. The trend strength of all was 1 [2][58]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Operating strongly, but be aware of marginal valuation pressure. The trend strength was 1 [2][68]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE's risk preference continued to spill over, and the basis weakened significantly. PP had low production scheduling and limited profit recovery. The trend strength of both was - 1 [2][71][74]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating at a low level. The trend strength was 0 [2][77]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remained stable. The trend strength was - 1 [2][82]. - **Methanol**: Oscillation with support. The trend strength was 1 [2][86]. - **Urea**: The oscillation center moved up. The trend strength was 0 [2][91]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating strongly. The trend strength was 0 [2][94]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. The trend strength was - 1 [2][97]. - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG had strong short - term geopolitical disturbances, and propylene's upward trend slowed down. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][102]. - **PVC**: Range - bound oscillation. The trend strength was 0 [2][113]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil was rising strongly with increasing volatility, and low - sulfur fuel oil continued the upward trend. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][114]. Agricultural Products - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: Oscillating market, with suggestions to gradually reduce short positions in the 04 contract and hold short positions in the 10 contract as appropriate. The trend strength was 0 [2][117]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips**: Short - term upward trend on January 26, 2026. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][130]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Wait - and - see. The trend strength was 0 [2][133]. - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating strongly. The trend strength was 0 [2][137]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil was short - term oscillating with an upward bias, and soybean oil's oil - to - meal ratio rebounded. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][140]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal may oscillate following US soybeans, and the soybean spot price was stable with a rebounding futures price. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][145]. - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly. The trend strength was 1 [2][148]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level. The trend strength was 0 [2][152]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly on January 26, 2026. The trend strength was 1 [2][157]. - **Eggs**: The spot price was strong during the pre - holiday peak season. The trend strength was 0 [2][162]. - **Hogs**: The demand expectation for the Laba Festival was fulfilled, and attention should be paid to supply contradictions. The trend strength was - 1 [2][165]. - **Peanuts**: Oscillating. The trend strength was 0 [2][169].