Group 1 - The report indicates a slight decrease in leverage in the interbank bond market, with a mixed performance in the primary market and overall positive sentiment in the secondary market, leading to an increase in bond duration and active trading of ultra-long bonds [2][4][7] - In the funding market, the demand for expansion has cooled, with a decrease in net inflow for major borrowing parties and an increase in net inflow for major lending parties. The total balance of repos in the interbank market has risen, while the leverage ratio has slightly decreased [4][7][8] - The primary market saw a divergence in bidding multiples, with a rise in the bidding multiple for 10-year government bonds, while the multiples for policy bonds decreased. The spread between primary and secondary prices has widened [17][19] Group 2 - The secondary market has shown active trading in ultra-long bonds, with an increase in turnover rates for 30-year government bonds and a rise in the average duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds. The total borrowing volume for bonds has decreased, and the proportion of active bonds has also declined [26][30] - Major buyers have increased net purchases of ultra-long bonds, while net purchases of short, medium, and long-term bonds have decreased. Major sellers have increased net sales of medium and long-term bonds, while the selling pressure on short and ultra-long bonds has weakened [26][30][33] - The report highlights that large commercial banks have continued to net buy short-term bonds within 3 years, while maintaining significant net selling pressure on ultra-long bonds of 10 years and above [34][36] Group 3 - In June, the data on wealth management did not show a significant seasonal decline, with a slight increase in wealth management scale during the week of June 22. The total wealth management scale decreased by 204.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in fixed-income products [34][36] - The fund scale increased by 299.9 billion yuan in June, with both equity and bond funds seeing significant increases. However, the issuance of new bond funds saw a slight decline compared to the previous week [36][37]

Group 1 - The recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel has led to an unexpected improvement in geopolitical relations, resulting in a rapid recovery of market risk appetite [1] - The central bank's monetary policy committee meeting indicated a bearish impact on the bond market, with the removal of "timely rate cuts" and the re-emphasis on preventing capital outflow, which may dampen market sentiment [1][2] - The meeting's language changes suggest a reduced necessity for short-term policy intensification, as the acknowledgment of domestic growth policy effectiveness implies a lower probability of further policy easing [2] Group 2 - Recent consumer data for May exceeded market expectations, indicating an improvement in demand, particularly in discretionary spending categories such as home appliances and clothing, although automotive sales growth remains sluggish [3][4] - The strong performance in the real estate sector, particularly in completion cycles, is driven by government subsidy policies, which aligns with the overall consumer spending trends [4] - The bond market is expected to strengthen further, driven by lower funding costs below policy rates and improving fundamental conditions, despite the central bank's recent meeting potentially suppressing expectations for monetary easing [4]

Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The domestic equity market showed strong performance last week, with major indices rising over 3% and daily trading volume increasing to around 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, surpassing the 3400-point mark, which is a significant resistance level [1] - Financial, computer, and military industries performed well, while the oil and petrochemical sectors saw declines due to falling oil prices [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Observations - Despite significant tariff impacts and a slowdown in the domestic real estate market since April, the overall macroeconomic environment remains stable, supported by a strong industrial chain and manufacturing capabilities [1] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has also contributed positively to the macroeconomic performance [1] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market exhibited a fluctuating pattern last week, influenced by seasonal factors and the stock-bond relationship [2] - The strong performance of the stock market initially suppressed bond market performance, but increased liquidity from the central bank and insurance demand supported the bond market [2] - By the end of the week, the yields on 10-year government bonds and 30-year government bonds rose by 1 basis point, reaching 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The current economic situation shows marginal improvement, but external uncertainties persist, with prices remaining low, posing challenges [1][2] - The monetary policy has shifted from aggressive easing to an observation period, focusing on the transmission of institutional liabilities and financing support [2] Core Insights and Arguments - As of the end of June, institutions have significantly increased their positions, leading to a low volatility in bond yields, with a notable stock-bond effect [1][5] - Market expectations for the third quarter and the second half of the year are optimistic, with opportunities in July likely stemming from previous trading strategies [6][7] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened, indicating a more relaxed liquidity environment, with potential for funding costs to fall below policy rates [7][8] - The main trading theme for the second half of the year will focus on institutional liabilities and yield recovery, which will take time to digest [9] Important but Overlooked Content - The performance of credit bonds has been weaker compared to interest rate bonds, particularly high-grade 3A credit bonds, which have seen significant adjustments [3][11] - The impact of ETF products on the ultra-long credit bond market is significant, improving liquidity and expected to continue expanding due to policy support [16] - The current yield on 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.6%, with a need for time to digest the decline in funding costs [9] - The performance of ultra-long credit strategies in June was strong, but sustainability is in question due to the unstable liability side of public funds [10][14] - The market for perpetual bonds (二勇) performed poorly in June, with a lack of expected gains despite market synchronization [13] Future Outlook - The trading rhythm for July 2025 is challenging to predict, with key dates being early July and the end of July, which may influence market sentiment [8] - The anticipated issuance of bonds in the second half of the year is expected to be lower, alleviating supply pressure [8] - The ultra-long credit strategy is expected to face challenges due to insufficient yield protection and poor volatility resistance, necessitating careful timing in operations [19]

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331.5 billion yuan, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [1] - With 220.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing on the same day, the net injection into the open market was 111.0 billion yuan [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products rose across the board, with the 7-day Shibor leading the increase [1] - Specifically, the overnight Shibor increased by 5.10 basis points to 1.4220%, while the 7-day Shibor rose by 9.50 basis points to 1.7630% [2][3] - The 14-day Shibor saw a smaller increase of 1.10 basis points, reaching 1.7660% [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term rates increased significantly, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates rising by 14.2 basis points and 83.5 basis points, respectively [4] - The transaction volumes for DR001 and R001 decreased by 363.6 billion yuan and 414.6 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 also increased, with DR007 rising by 21.9 basis points to 1.9159% and R007 increasing by 8.5 basis points to 2.0056% [4] Funding Conditions - On June 30, the funding environment was tight in the morning, influenced by the quarter-end [9] - The overnight lending rates ranged from 3.50% to 3.80%, while the 7-day credit lending rate opened around 2.05% [9] - By the afternoon, the funding conditions balanced out but remained slightly tight, with overnight lending rates dropping to around 1.75% by the end of the trading day [9] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Issuance - As of June 30, there were 32 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 16.78 billion yuan [9]

央行：境外机构在中国债券市场的托管余额4.4万亿元，占比2.3% 金十数据6月30日讯，央行发布2025年5月份金融市场运行情况。截至5月末，境外机构在中国债券市场 的托管余额4.4万亿元，占中国债券市场托管余额的比重为2.3%。其中，境外机构在银行间债券市场的 债券托管余额4.3万亿元；分券种看，境外机构持有国债2.1万亿元、占比48.5%，同业存单1.2万亿元、 占比28.0%，政策性银行债券0.8万亿元、占比19.3%。 ...

Group 1 - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has seen a net inflow of over 4.8 billion yuan for 10 consecutive days as of June 27, with nearly 10 billion yuan in the past month, bringing its current scale to over 13.5 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity [1] - According to CITIC Securities, the duration of bond funds significantly increased to a new high in mid-June, suggesting potential profit-taking pressure in the short term. However, a bullish outlook is maintained for the medium term, particularly in July, when bond market sentiment may rise again, leading to long-term interest rates approaching previous lows [1] - The ten-year government bond yield is often regarded as a "risk-free return," characterized by high safety, strong liquidity, and stable returns, serving as a pricing anchor for various assets and referred to as the "ballast stone" of the bond market [1] Group 2 - The ten-year government bond ETF has demonstrated stable performance, achieving profits every year since 2018, making it a valuable asset allocation tool across market cycles [2] - The ETF offers three trading advantages: (1) flexible trading with T+0 intraday trading, suitable for swing trading; (2) can be pledged as a standard exchange security, with a current pledge rate of approximately 94%, enhancing capital utilization; (3) consists of CTD bonds, suitable for arbitrage strategies [2] - The fund is classified as a bond fund with expected returns and risk levels lower than equity and mixed funds, but higher than money market funds, utilizing an optimized sampling replication strategy to track the Shanghai 10-year government bond index [3]

牛牛市市旗旗手手券券商商板板块块大大涨涨，，行行情情能能否否持持续续？？ 22002255年年66月月2233日日--22002255年年66月月2277日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股强势上涨，债市小幅回调，黄金回落，美股和美债上涨。具体来看，本周市场有以下 几个重要方面： 在国际地缘风险降低，美元指数年内新低，中美经贸谈判边际趋好的综合背景下，预计股票市场风 险偏好有望维持。鉴于指数普涨并非自经济基本面的驱动，故短期行情趋势更依赖市场成交的持续 性。但即使市场成交不能持续放量，在当前市场风险偏好下，预计市场依然会有比较多的结构性投 资机会。 01 本周市场普涨，强势表现超出市场预期。以伊停火协议助力全球市场风险偏好回升，香港稳 定币相关政策推动券商和金融科技板块大涨，银行和非银板块合力推动指数上行的行情在周 五稍缓。上证指数本周年内新高，但其他指数相对年内高点较远，本周近九成个股取得正收 益。 02 债市方面，本周债市小幅震荡回调。资金面上，尽管季末资金面较为紧张但央行本周累计净 投放超万亿，整体来看资金面较为均衡。基本面上，5月经济数据等仍偏弱，经济复苏有待 时日，对债市较为有利。消息面上地缘政治 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 29 日 央行延续呵护，资金预计平稳跨月 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 核心观点 资金面部分，未来一周，政府债净融资规模下降，月初央行预计按惯例回笼，资金面 大概率将保持均衡运行，平稳跨月。 存单部分，未来一周，存单到期规模约 0.25 万亿，供给压力有所减小，月初资金面预 计回到均衡偏松，存单收益率或呈现震荡走势。 机构行为部分，基金、农商行、其他产品是利率债主要买盘，农商行净买入力量有明 显回升。 ❑ 流动性：央行延续呵护，资金面预计平稳跨月 1、资金面部分：（1）央行 6 月 MLF 持续超额续作，已连续 4 个月续作 MLF 投放 流动性，配合 6 月 2000 亿的买断式逆回购净投放，资金面呈现均衡偏松的态势。 6 月央行三次操作中长期投放流动性，加强和市场的政策沟通，有效缓解了存单 大量到期带来的银行负债端压力。（2）过去一周，央行持续进行幅度较大的净投 放，以呵护跨月资金面，月末资金面紧张程度有限。由于跨月资金需求旺盛，核 心资金利率边际上行，资金面呈现 "量价双升"的情形，全周来看资金面体感均 衡 ...

大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/26 注：沪深300、上证50、中证500的10年利率用10年期AAA企业债利率，标普500用美国10年期国债利率，德国DAX用德国10年期国债利率 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.995 106.190 109.010 106.275 涨跌（%） -0.12% -0.08% -0.12% -0.08% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.4402% 1.8593% 1.6300% 日度变化(BP) -38.00 4.00 0.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何 ...