Core Viewpoint - The dialogue emphasizes a pragmatic and optimistic investment approach, focusing on identifying and leveraging "expectation gaps" in low-attention assets as key investment opportunities for 2026 [4][6]. Group 1: Market Outlook for 2026 - Investor sentiment towards Chinese assets is warming, with expectations for a "slow bull" market emerging as macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns become less pressing [5][9]. - The market logic is shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth, necessitating a more nuanced understanding of industry and company performance [5][9]. - Liquidity is expected to be a significant supportive factor for the stock market, with both institutional and individual investors showing increased willingness to allocate funds to equities [13][14]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The focus for the next 6-12 months is on identifying "expectation gaps" in various sectors, particularly in low-attention assets that have not been fully recognized by the market [6][16]. - Key areas of interest include AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumer trends, with a particular emphasis on structural opportunities that arise from supply-demand constraints [7][22]. - The commodity bull market narrative is being driven by AI and material demand, with potential investment opportunities in mining and exploration sectors expected to yield significant returns [25]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The concept of "new consumption" is evolving, with structural changes in consumer demographics and preferences creating new investment opportunities [27][28]. - The "people, place, and goods" framework is used to analyze consumption opportunities, highlighting the importance of understanding consumer behavior and market connections [28][29]. - Sustainable growth in consumer sectors is anticipated, particularly in areas that cater to younger and older demographics, as well as products that enhance personal satisfaction [30][31]. Group 4: Risk Management and Investment Strategy - The importance of recognizing crowded trades and consensus risks is emphasized, as these can lead to market volatility when expectations shift [32]. - Developing investment contingency plans and maintaining a proactive approach to market changes are crucial for navigating uncertainties [33]. - The company advocates for a team-based investment approach, leveraging diverse expertise to adapt to complex market scenarios [37].

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) rose over 1% during trading, drawing attention to the high dividend characteristics of the coal sector [1] - According to Tianfeng Securities, the coal industry is positioned within the first layer of the "anti-involution" policy framework, which focuses on "public finance logic" [1] - The policy aims to maintain reasonable profit margins through direct capacity control and price intervention, stabilizing the coal sector as a stabilizer for the fiscal and financial system [1] Group 2 - Under the management of "supply guarantee" and "price limit," the supply elasticity of the coal industry has decreased, leading to narrowed price fluctuations and sustained high industry profit margins [1] - Leading companies in the coal sector are capable of maintaining high dividends, with their assets exhibiting "debt-like" characteristics [1] - In an environment of declining interest rates and growth uncertainty, such assets become a core defensive allocation due to their stable cash flow and high dividends [1] Group 3 - The coal ETF (515220) has a scale exceeding 8 billion yuan, tracking the CSI Coal Index (399998) [1] - The dividend yield of the coal sector is relatively high, with the tracked index expected to have a dividend yield exceeding 6% over the next 12 months by the end of 2025 [1] - The value of allocation becomes prominent against the backdrop of declining risk-free interest rates [1]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with overall demand showing a downward trend. The real estate market remains weak, while infrastructure demand is regionally differentiated due to policy drivers. The civil market shows relatively inelastic demand. In the medium term, cement industry capacity is expected to decline under policies limiting overproduction, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization and profit elasticity. Key companies to watch include Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [3][4] - The glass industry is experiencing sustained demand pressure due to the impact of real estate, with a continuous decline in demand expected in 2025. Short-term improvements in demand during the traditional peak season are limited, and inventory levels among intermediaries are relatively high. Despite recent cold repairs of several production lines, overall supply-demand pressure remains, and prices are expected to stay low in the short term. Key company to monitor is Qibin Group [4][14] - The fiberglass sector is seeing weak demand as the year-end approaches, with downstream purchasing performance being subdued. However, the electronic yarn segment is driven by demand from the AI industry, leading to a rise in both volume and price. The industry is expected to experience explosive growth in demand alongside AI advancements. Key companies to focus on include China Jushi and China National Building Material [4] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with prices having no further downward space after years of competition. The industry is strongly advocating for price increases and profit improvements, with expectations for 2026 to see recovery in profitability for leading companies such as Oriental Yuhong and Sanke [4] Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market is gradually entering the off-season, with demand continuing to decline. The construction market remains weak, and infrastructure demand shows significant regional differentiation. The civil market has relatively rigid demand, and funding remains a key constraint on demand release. In the coming weeks, demand is expected to decrease significantly due to colder weather and the upcoming Spring Festival [8] - In November 2025, the monthly cement production was 154 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 8.2% [8] Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with traditional peak season demand showing limited improvement. Inventory levels among intermediaries are high, and despite recent cold repairs, supply-demand pressure persists. Prices are expected to remain low in the short term [14] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing subdued demand as year-end approaches, but the electronic yarn segment is benefiting from AI industry demand, leading to a rise in both volume and price. The industry is expected to see significant growth in demand [4] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with strong calls for price increases and profit improvements. Expectations for 2026 include recovery in profitability for leading companies [4]

Summary of Tungsten Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tungsten market, discussing price trends, supply-demand dynamics, and regulatory impacts for the years 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends and Influencing Factors - In 2025, the tungsten market experienced significant price fluctuations due to various factors: - Q1: Export control policies led to inventory sell-offs, causing price declines [2]. - Q2: Continued enforcement of export controls and anti-smuggling measures supported domestic prices [2]. - Q3: The introduction of anti-involution policies resulted in increased profits for large enterprises, driving up prices for downstream products like tungsten powder [2][5]. - Q4: Supply tightness in APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) due to tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants pushed prices higher [2][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - For 2026, domestic tungsten demand is projected at approximately 75,000 tons, while supply is expected to be around 65,000 tons, resulting in a supply gap of about 10,000 tons [3][24]. - Global demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.5% to 5% [3][24]. - The tungsten concentrate production is expected to continue declining in 2026, even with imports, due to environmental and operational issues affecting supply [1][6]. Regulatory and Policy Impacts - The anti-involution policy aims to prevent unreasonable price increases and is crucial for stabilizing the market [11]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes prohibiting the expansion of low-end production capacity and promoting high-end transformation in the tungsten industry [12]. - Export controls from Japan on tungsten are expected to remain in place, potentially becoming a normalized measure in the context of geopolitical tensions [29]. Future Price Predictions - Market participants predict that tungsten prices could reach 800,000 to 1,000,000 CNY per ton, but this is contingent on policy adjustments [13]. - The valuation of strategic metals like tungsten is expected to be reassessed, reflecting their strategic importance rather than just production costs [13][14]. Inventory and Market Conditions - Current inventory levels among traders and manufacturers are low, with many firms operating with minimal stock due to unexpected price increases [20][22]. - Major traders maintain operational inventories around 200 tons, while social inventory levels are expected to be low overall [21]. Application and Demand Structure - The demand for tungsten in various applications is evolving, with hard alloys remaining the largest segment, followed by materials for photovoltaic and nuclear fusion applications [26][27]. - Emerging industries are expected to have a stronger acceptance of high-priced tungsten products, while traditional sectors may see a reduction in demand [24]. Other Important Insights - The market is closely monitoring the impact of supply-side reforms and environmental regulations on production capabilities [10][14]. - The potential for recycled tungsten to increase in supply is recognized, with current recycling rates expected to rise to meet tightening raw material availability [16]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the tungsten market conference call, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, regulatory impacts, and future market expectations.

Core Viewpoint - Southern Airlines (01055) has shown a positive market response, with a stock price increase of over 5% during trading, currently at 5.77 HKD, supported by a report from Huatai Securities highlighting optimistic operational forecasts for 2025 [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - Southern Airlines announced a projected growth in ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) of 6.6% and 8.3% respectively for 2025, with a passenger load factor of 85.7%, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.4 percentage points, setting a new historical high for the year [1] - The airline's fleet size is industry-leading, and the improvement in passenger traffic is expected to enhance revenue levels [1] Group 2: Profitability Outlook - Huatai Securities has raised its net profit forecasts for Southern Airlines for the years 2025 to 2027 by 59%, 42%, and 29% respectively, estimating net profits of 1.023 billion, 8.573 billion, and 11.035 billion RMB, which correspond to earnings per share of 0.06, 0.47, and 0.61 RMB [1] - The upward revision in performance is primarily attributed to improved industry supply and demand dynamics, along with deeper implementation of anti-involution policies, leading to an increase in unit revenue per passenger kilometer by 0.1%, 1.1%, and 1.6% [1] Group 3: Market Catalysts - The improvement in the airline industry is expected to boost revenue levels and profitability for Southern Airlines, with short-term catalysts such as the upcoming Spring Festival travel data potentially driving further positive momentum [1] - Favorable conditions such as oil prices and the USD to RMB exchange rate are anticipated to benefit the company's profit margins [1]

Core Viewpoint - Several leading photovoltaic companies have announced significant expected losses for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry due to supply-demand imbalances and rising raw material costs [1][2][3]. Company Summaries - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) expects a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, citing unresolved supply-demand issues and rising prices of core raw materials [1]. - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) anticipates a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, highlighting ongoing low operating rates and increased costs due to rising prices of silver paste and silicon materials [1]. - Aiko Solar Energy (爱旭股份) projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, attributing this to structural overcapacity and sustained low product prices [1]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) expects a net loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan for 2025 [2]. - JA Solar Technology (晶澳科技) forecasts a net loss of 4.5 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2025, contributing to a total expected loss of over 28.9 billion yuan for these five leading companies [3]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant price fluctuations since 2025, leading to widespread losses among companies [4]. - The Chinese government plans to strengthen capacity regulation and manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects to address the ongoing challenges in the industry [4]. - Experts suggest that merely relying on government initiatives may not be sufficient, and additional measures may be necessary to stabilize the industry [4][5]. - The industry has experienced a continuous loss trend for eight quarters, with a 33% reduction in workforce in 2024, and an increase in average interest-bearing debt ratio from 23% to 31% [5].

Group 1 - A-shares are showing steady growth in 2026, with foreign institutions actively conducting research to seize investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors like AI, semiconductors, and electronic devices [1] - As of January 15, 2026, foreign institutions have conducted a total of 70 research sessions on A-share listed companies, with Anji Technology receiving the most attention from 27 foreign institutions [1] - UBS Wealth Management indicates that despite strong performance in the Chinese stock market since 2025, valuations remain low compared to global peers, suggesting significant upside potential [1] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management forecasts a potential slowdown in global economic growth in 2026, with a supportive low-interest-rate environment expected to bolster economic development [2] - The liquidity environment in China is anticipated to remain loose, with a clear supportive policy stance from the government, which is expected to benefit the stock market [2] - Key investment directions identified include AI-driven sectors, lithium battery industry, non-ferrous metals, machinery benefiting from overseas demand, and semiconductor fields focusing on domestic GPU and equipment [2] Group 3 - Fidelity Fund emphasizes the importance of the "super track" of artificial intelligence and three strong sectors: aerospace, low-altitude economy, and innovative consumer [3]

行业走势图 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2025-01-17 2025-02-17 2025-03-17 2025-04-17 2025-05-17 2025-06-17 2025-07-17 2025-08-17 2025-09-17 2025-10-17 2025-11-17 2025-12-17 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 2026 年 01 月 18 日 相关研究报告 投资评级：看好（维持） 《从 Gemini 到千问，看好大模型支付 闭环下的商业价值提升—港股行业点 评报告》-2026.1.15 《英伟达开源 Alpamayo，禾赛加入"朋 友圈"—行业周报》-2026.1.11 《昆仑芯启动港股 IPO，关注 MiniMax 多模态机会—行业周报》-2026.1.4 | ——行业周报 | | --- | | 初敏（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | 荀月（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | zhangke1@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522 ...

Monetary Policy - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points to 1.25%, below the short-term policy rate of 1.4%[1] - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts in 2026, but these are likely to be used as a reserve tool rather than a routine operation[1][11] - Current monetary policy focuses on structural rate cuts rather than comprehensive rate cuts, reflecting internal constraints such as low net interest margins for commercial banks[1][11] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year[3] - Retail sales have increased by 1.3% year-on-year[3] - Exports have risen by 6.6% year-on-year[3] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal spending is expected to increase in Q1 2026, supported by a significant carryover of surplus funds from 2025[2][12] - The combination of structural monetary easing and fiscal policy aims to effectively expand domestic demand and solidify economic recovery[12] Market Trends - Production remains strong, with high demand in sectors like machinery and textiles, while real estate transactions continue to decline[13][14] - Port cargo throughput has increased by 4.82% year-on-year, indicating robust foreign trade momentum[22] Risks - There are uncertainties in overseas markets that could impact economic stability[2][51]

Group 1: US and Greenland Relations - President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on countries that do not support the US acquiring Greenland, citing national security concerns [1][2] - This marks the first time Trump has mentioned using tariffs as a means to acquire Greenland [1] - Danish Defense Minister stated that Trump's threats highlight the need for continued dialogue and the seriousness of the situation [2] Group 2: US Consulate in Greenland - The US consulate in Greenland plans to relocate to a new building in Nuuk, covering approximately 3,000 square meters and equipped with bulletproof glass [3] - This move is intended to strengthen the relationship between the US and Greenland [3] Group 3: Ukraine and US Security Agreements - Ukraine and US delegations are set to meet in Miami to refine security and economic agreements [4] - The discussions aim to finalize key agreements that may be signed at the World Economic Forum in Davos [4] - Ukrainian President emphasized the need for clear information regarding the agreements and financial support from the US [4] Group 4: Venezuela's Energy Exports - Venezuela has officially started exporting liquefied petroleum gas, marking a significant step in its energy sector [5][6] - The announcement was made by the interim president during a meeting focused on the country's economic production [5][6] Group 5: Chevron's Operations in Venezuela - The US is expediting the expansion of Chevron's oil production licenses in Venezuela, allowing cash payments to the Venezuelan government instead of oil [7] - This change is expected to enhance Chevron's commercial flexibility in Venezuela [7] Group 6: Caustic Soda Market Trends - Caustic soda futures have dropped from around 2,300 yuan/ton to approximately 2,000 yuan/ton, attributed to supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels [8][9] - The production capacity utilization rate for caustic soda is currently at 86.7%, indicating high supply pressure [8] - The inventory of caustic soda has reached a historical high of 512,100 tons, up 99.64% year-on-year [8] Group 7: Future Outlook for Caustic Soda Prices - Analysts suggest that the caustic soda market lacks clear drivers for a rebound, with current conditions unlikely to change fundamentally [9][10] - The potential for price recovery hinges on improvements in the alumina market or a decline in liquid chlorine prices [9][10] - Seasonal demand and production adjustments post-Spring Festival may provide a temporary boost to prices [10]