证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 （1）政策演进分为三个阶段，2023 年初-2024 年 6 月，中央点明相关风险， 2024 年 7 月-2025 年 6 月中央首次提出防范"内卷式"恶性竞争，部分行业 开展自律探索但缺乏协同与刚性约束，2025 年 7 月至今为系统化实施期。 （2）核心定位方面，反内卷核心是破解地方保护主义与市场分割导致的资 源错配，与统一大市场形成双向支撑，前者为后者扫清不当竞争障碍，后者 为前者提供制度框架，共同服务于高质量发展。 实施特征看： （1）实施特征方面，呈现部委协同治理、行业自律为基、产能价格双控、 甄别标准多元四大特点。 （2）行业治理模式方面，煤炭、钢铁等传统上游行业以行政干预为主，多 晶硅、光伏等新兴及下游领域以行业自律为主，部分领域采用行政与自律结 合的模式。 （3）典型案例方面，光伏产业作为新兴产业内卷代表，经历"自律失败-政 策加力-实质推进"历程，2025 年政策加码后通过多重举措规范竞争，但下 游并网增速下滑、终端需求疲软导致硅料等环节提价压力难以传导，制约政 策效果。 宏观经济深度报告 反内卷系列一：将"反内卷"进行到底 反内卷政策是决策层针对 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 宏观经济深度报告 反内卷系列一：将"反内卷"进行到底 反内卷政策是决策层针对产能过剩、无序竞争问题认知深化的产物，是全国 统一大市场建设从顶层设计向实践落地的重要环节。 政策演进看： （1）政策演进分为三个阶段，2023 年初-2024 年 6 月，中央点明相关风险， 2024 年 7 月-2025 年 6 月中央首次提出防范"内卷式"恶性竞争，部分行业 开展自律探索但缺乏协同与刚性约束，2025 年 7 月至今为系统化实施期。 （2）核心定位方面，反内卷核心是破解地方保护主义与市场分割导致的资 源错配，与统一大市场形成双向支撑，前者为后者扫清不当竞争障碍，后者 为前者提供制度框架，共同服务于高质量发展。 实施特征看： （1）实施特征方面，呈现部委协同治理、行业自律为基、产能价格双控、 甄别标准多元四大特点。 （2）行业治理模式方面，煤炭、钢铁等传统上游行业以行政干预为主，多 晶硅、光伏等新兴及下游领域以行业自律为主，部分领域采用行政与自律结 合的模式。 （3）典型案例方面，光伏产业作为新兴产业内卷代表，经历"自律失败-政 策加力-实质推进"历程，2025 年政策加码 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector experienced a sharp decline and then a partial recovery. After a period of rapid rise in non - ferrous precious metals, the profit - taking pressure increased. The nomination of Fed Chairman candidate Wash and the geopolitical situation in Iran led to a strong rebound in the US dollar, triggering profit - taking in the market. However, as market sentiment was digested, the leading non - ferrous metals showed resistance, driving the sector to repair and consolidate [12][13]. - After significant adjustments, the non - ferrous metals sector is expected to see opportunities for long - position entry based on the strength of fundamentals after the adjustment pressure is fully released. Traders still need to pay attention to the pressure release from the precious metals sector, the sustainability of the US dollar's rebound, and geopolitical changes [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector adjusted rapidly after a sharp rise. The nomination of Wash led to a rebound in the US dollar. Economic data in the US and the eurozone showed certain characteristics, such as the US 12 - month PPI exceeding expectations and the eurozone's Q4 GDP growth being higher than expected. Trump planned a $12 billion investment in strategic mineral reserves. After the adjustment, as the market sentiment was digested, the sector showed signs of recovery [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy**: - **Copper**: Affected by the sharp decline in the gold and silver markets, copper prices initially fell but rebounded in the afternoon. Trump's plan for a strategic mineral reserve may bring a premium to copper. The rise in copper prices in January was mainly due to valuation repair, and the fundamentals had limited positive effects. The Fed's policy and the long - term downward trend of the US dollar index are favorable for copper. In the short - term, the supply of copper concentrates is tight globally, but the domestic supply is still abundant. The demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventories are expected to increase. It is recommended to gradually go long on copper at low prices, with a short - term upper pressure range of 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton [3][14][15]. - **Zinc**: The decline in zinc prices converged. The geopolitical situation in Iran and the low inventory of LME zinc supported the external market. The domestic mine TC was stable, and imports slightly decreased. Downstream demand was weak, and inventories were likely to accumulate. It is recommended to consider going long on zinc at low prices if it stabilizes, with a short - term support range of 24,000 - 24,300 and a pressure range of 25,000 - 25,500 [4][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Copper's rebound slightly improved the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector. For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices, with an upper pressure range of 26,000 - 27,000 and a lower support range of 22,000 - 23,000. For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 2,900 - 3,000 and a lower support range of 2,300 - 2,600. For recycled aluminum alloys, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 24,000 - 26,000 and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,500 [5][15]. - **Tin**: The weak performance of the tin market improved, and it is expected to stabilize. It is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 450,000 - 460,000 and a lower support range of 330,000 - 350,000 [6][7][15]. - **Lead**: The decline in non - ferrous metals slowed down. The supply and demand of lead were in a state of increasing supply and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern and weaken temporarily. It is recommended to go long on lead at low prices if the adjustment pressure in the sector is further alleviated, with a short - term support range of 16,400 - 16,600 and an upper pressure range of 17,000 - 17,300 [8][16]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The decline in non - ferrous metals slowed down. The US Treasury's inventory plan for nickel and the expected adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore quota affected the market. The cost of nickel products increased, and the inventory of LME nickel was above 280,000 tons. It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless steel at low prices after the adjustment is sufficient. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 138,000 - 140,000 yuan, and the lower support range is 125,000 - 128,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,800 - 14,000, and the lower support range is 13,000 - 13,400 [9][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures were presented, such as copper closing at 104,500 with a 6.01% increase, zinc closing at 24,960 with a 1.82% increase, etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector was provided, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties [21] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals were listed, such as the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 101,420 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 25,050 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase [22] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals were provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, such as the change in copper inventory in exchanges and the change in zinc concentrate processing fees [24][25] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the change in the copper Shanghai - London ratio and the change in the zinc Shanghai - London ratio [49][52] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to the options of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the historical volatility of copper options and the weighted implied volatility of zinc options [68][70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of heavy machinery stocks in the Hong Kong market, particularly China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and SANY International, which have reached historical highs with year-to-date increases of over 40% and 52% respectively [1] - According to a recent report by Credit Lyonnais, three key driving forces are emerging in the Chinese industrial sector amid the ongoing anti-involution policies, including rising demand for mining equipment, maturity of the supply chain for humanoid robots, and consolidation in the express delivery industry [1] - The report anticipates that the equipment replacement cycle will continue, alongside record investments in power grids and renewable energy, which are expected to drive excavator sales growth by approximately 10% [1] Group 2 - First-tier suppliers are prepared to commence mass production of humanoid machinery in the second half of the year [1] - The strong performance and price increases in the lithium-related sector are expected to lead to a year-on-year recovery in automation demand of about 5% [1]

港股市场重型机械股走强，其中，中国重汽、三一国际再创历史新高；中国重汽年内累涨超40%，三一 国际年内累涨超52%。 里昂近日发布研报称，在反内卷政策持续推进等背景下，中国工业板块正出现三大关键推动力，包括矿 业设备需求上升、人形机器人供应链成熟，以及快递行业整合。就核心业务而言，该行预期设备更换周 期将持续，加上电网及可再生能源投资创新高，将推动挖掘机销售增长约10%。一线供应商的海外工厂 已准备就绪，将于下半年启动人形机械人量产；而受锂相关领域强劲及价格上升带动，自动化需求预计 同比复苏约5%。 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rebound on February 3, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 4.19% during the trading day [1][2][6] - Key stocks in the sector, including phosphate chemicals, soda ash, and potash, saw notable gains, with Hongda Co. surging over 9% and several others, such as Boyuan Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, increasing by more than 5% [1][7][9] Group 2 - Huafu Securities indicated that the chemical industry has undergone a bottoming process in profitability and valuation, with expectations for a recovery in earnings in 2026, driven by supply-side reforms and new production capabilities represented by AI computing and advanced manufacturing [1][9] - Zhongyin Securities projected that the current round of industry expansion is nearing its end, and measures like "anti-involution" are expected to catalyze a recovery in industry profitability, particularly benefiting new materials due to rapid downstream demand growth [3][9] - Investors are advised to focus on low-valuation industry leaders and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply-side dynamics, as well as companies in the electronic materials sector that are increasingly critical in the context of self-sufficiency [3][9] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, covering popular themes such as AI computing, anti-involution, robotics, and new energy [3][9] - Investors can also consider the Chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for exposure to the chemical sector [3][9]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a strong rebound in prices, with the basic chemical index rising by 12.72% year-to-date as of January 30, driven by supply-side maintenance, recovering export demand, and policy-driven structural tightness [1] - Aromatic products have shown significant price increases, with pure benzene prices in East China rising by 18.3% and styrene by 15.5% in January [1] - The price surge is attributed to multiple factors, including rising international oil prices, unexpected maintenance of chemical facilities, and a favorable market outlook for low-valuation chemical products [1] Group 2 - PX social inventory is expected to decrease rapidly starting in the second half of 2025, with a projected drop to 1.67 million tons by the end of 2025, supporting PX spot price increases [2] - The price of caprolactam has also rebounded, with prices rising from 9,325 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton in January, driven by reduced industry operating rates [2] - The pesticide industry is benefiting from rising core raw material prices and new export tax regulations, leading to price increases for products like glyphosate [2] Group 3 - The pesticide industry is undergoing supply-side structural reforms driven by policy changes, including the implementation of a new registration policy and the cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products [3] - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with stricter standards for energy consumption, carbon emissions, and safety processes expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the construction materials sector is showing strong performance, with expectations for price increases in various categories such as waterproofing, coatings, and cement due to improving demand and economic conditions in 2026. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring post-Spring Festival demand recovery and price adjustments [4][5] - The cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable decline in demand, particularly in the housing market. However, mid-term prospects suggest that production capacity may decrease under policies limiting overproduction, potentially leading to improved profit margins [4][9] - The glass industry is facing ongoing demand pressures, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement. Supply-side adjustments are expected to keep prices low in the short term [5][16] - The fiber glass sector is experiencing a demand boost driven by the AI industry, with expectations for significant growth in both volume and price [5] - The consumer building materials sector is anticipated to see a bottoming out of profits, with strong price increase demands following years of competitive pricing [5] Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with December 2025 production at 144 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%. Demand is expected to weaken further due to seasonal factors and the upcoming Spring Festival [9] Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with high inventory levels among intermediaries and limited demand recovery. Recent supply-side adjustments have not alleviated the overall supply-demand imbalance, leading to expectations of continued low price fluctuations [16] Fiber Glass - The fiber glass sector is benefiting from demand related to the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price as the industry evolves [5] Consumer Building Materials - The sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with several categories like waterproofing and coatings announcing price increases, indicating a potential turnaround in 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The cyclical sector performed well recently, with price increase expectations rising. The construction materials sector is expected to see significant valuation elasticity in 2026, with waterproofing, coatings, and cement entering a phase of improved prosperity. Various categories such as gypsum boards, pipes, and glass are anticipated to reach price turning points in 2026, supported by expectations of recovery in real estate and the economy. Short-term demand is currently weak, with a focus on post-Spring Festival demand and price increases [4][5] - Cement demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with overall demand still declining. The housing market remains weak, while infrastructure demand shows significant regional differentiation driven by policy. The civil market exhibits relatively rigid demand. In the medium term, cement production capacity is expected to decline under policies limiting overproduction, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization and profit elasticity [4][5] - The glass industry is experiencing sustained demand pressure due to real estate impacts, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement. Supply-side adjustments, including cold repairs of production lines, have occurred, but overall supply-demand pressures remain, leading to expectations of price stability at low levels [5][16] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement demand is gradually entering a seasonal downturn, with a 6.6% year-on-year decline in December 2025 production, totaling 144 million tons. The housing market remains weak, and infrastructure demand is regionally differentiated, with civil market demand being relatively rigid [9] Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement and high inventory levels among intermediaries. Despite recent cold repairs of production lines, supply-demand pressures persist, leading to expectations of continued low price fluctuations [5][16] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is seeing weak demand as manufacturers focus on cash flow. However, the electronic yarn segment is experiencing growth driven by AI industry demand, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price [5] Consumer Building Materials - The industry has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price space. The sector is strongly advocating for price increases, with waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards issuing price increase notices. Profitability improvements are expected for leading companies in 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Youfa Group, expects significant growth in net profit for 2025, driven by improved operational performance and investment gains [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 646 million to 706 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.11% to 66.23% [1][2]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 433 million and 493 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 35.24% to 53.98% year-on-year [1][2]. - In 2023, despite a 9.56% decline in revenue, the net profit increased by 91.85% to 570 million yuan [3]. Market Position - Youfa Group is the largest manufacturer of welded steel pipes in China, maintaining the top position in production and sales for 19 consecutive years [1][4]. - The company has a production capacity of 654.77 million tons of various steel pipes in the first half of 2025, marking a 4.18% increase year-on-year [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its domestic production base and accelerating overseas capacity expansion to improve market share and brand influence [1]. - Youfa Group is actively pursuing global expansion, focusing on Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia, and has established subsidiaries for direct export trade [5][6]. Investment and Assets - The company holds 341,700 shares of Muxi Co., with an estimated fair value change gain of approximately 110 million yuan [1][2]. - As of September 2025, Youfa Group has cash and cash equivalents of 11.62 billion yuan and trading financial assets of 172 million yuan, indicating strong short-term liquidity [3].