每经AI快讯，11月19日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一，沪金涨1.23%，沪银涨2.76%，沪铜涨 0.66%，铁矿涨0.06%，螺纹跌0.52%，焦煤跌近1%，玻璃跌0.69%，原油跌1.55%。 ...

人民财讯11月19日电，国内商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一，沪金涨1.23%，沪银涨2.76%；焦煤跌近1%， 玻璃跌0.69%，原油跌1.55%。 转自：证券时报 ...

Group 1: Sugar Core View The global sugar supply in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to have a surplus of 163,000 tons, mainly due to the increase in sugar cane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil and significant production growth in Indian sugar mills. In China, the import of sugar in October was 750,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 213,200 tons. Coupled with the increase in new sugar supply from sugar mills starting operations, the spot price quotes have generally been lowered. Although the control of syrup imports and high costs support the price, the supply pressure dominates the short-term weakness [3]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, SR01 closed at 5381 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.48% and a weekly decline of 1.77%. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. - **Price Spreads**: SR01 - 05 was 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 19 yuan from the previous week [4]. Basis and Import Prices - **Basis**: On November 18, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 353 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day and 73 yuan from the previous week. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 193 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from the previous day and 38 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Import Prices**: On November 19, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4060 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and up 92 yuan from the previous week. The out - of - quota price was 5143 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan from the previous day and up 120 yuan from the previous week [11]. Group 2: Cotton Core View Currently, the supply pressure of domestic cotton is gradually increasing, and there is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The demand side performance is currently average, and the upward momentum of cotton prices is lacking in the short term. The cotton price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downstream still has resilience, waiting for macroeconomic improvement [13]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan with a daily increase of 0.67%. Cotton 05 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan with a daily increase of 0.63% [14]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1394 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Cotton 01 - 05 was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Group 3: Apples Core View The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, and the trading is concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi production areas. The warehousing work is in the later stage. In ground trading, the apples in Qixia and Zhaoyuan in Shandong have not all been harvested, there are many merchants, and the striped apples are on the market. Fruit farmers mostly sell at the market price. In terms of warehousing progress, cold storages in Gansu have started to ship, the warehousing in Shaanxi is coming to an end, and the fruit farmers' apples in the western townships of Qixia in Shandong are still being warehoused. Shandong apples will gradually be shipped out next week, and small apples have sold well recently [17]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, AP01 closed at 9375 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 1.82%. AP03 closed at 9208 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly increase of 1.3% [18]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 77 yuan/ton, down 35.83% from the previous day and 228.33% from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 538 yuan/ton, down 3.76% from the previous day and up 49.86% from the previous week [19]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View The new - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. Currently, the new - season yield is still the core point of market game. At present, there is indeed a yield reduction in the southern Xinjiang production area, but the reduction range is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of the yield are also prone to deviations. In the short term, the red date price fluctuates greatly under the capital game, but under the yield reduction, as the purchase season begins, the downward space is expected to be limited for the time being. Pay attention to the subsequent commercial rate and purchase situation of new dates [25]. Price and Spread - **Price Spreads**: The red date futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends over time, and the data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in the report [26][28].

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate has increased by 4.31% in the early trading session [1] - Soda ash has decreased by 2.79% [1] - The European freight index has dropped by 2.40% [1] Group 2 - Industrial silicon has risen by 2.01% [1] - Soybean meal has fallen by 1.88% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a stage of game between cost - driven factors and industrial chain pressure. For soybean meal, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign markets, with a pattern of strong foreign and weak domestic prices. For soybean oil, it is affected by raw material costs and external market prices, and the high inventory is the main resistance to price increases. For palm oil, it is in a stage of bottom - building with limited rebound space [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean futures price is supported by strong crushing and good export expectations, providing cost support for domestic imported soybeans. However, the abundant domestic soybean arrivals and high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills suppress the basis to be continuously negative. Short - term attention should be paid to South American weather and domestic inventory reduction rhythm [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The soybean oil market is affected by the cost change of raw material soybeans and the price of US soybean oil in the external market. The domestic supply is very loose, with high inventory (up to nearly 1.2 million tons) and weak terminal consumption, resulting in light spot market transactions. Before there are obvious signals of supply - demand change, the price is expected to oscillate strongly within the current range [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][8] - **Core Logic**: The BMD crude palm oil rebounds from a low level, but the increase in Malaysian production and sluggish exports in November are the main drags. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is in a stage of bottom - building, with limited rebound space [8]

南华商品指数：所有版块均下跌，贵金属板块领跌 王怡琳 南华商品指数市场数据 | 用于同 的 HD 1日 300 11 200 300 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动率 | 今收盘 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | 日 啊 | Sharpe | 指数名称 | Today Close | Pre. Close | 96 | ARR | An. Vol | Batio | Points | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合指数 NHCl | 2528.48 | 2541.86 | -13.38 | -0.53% | -2.02% | 11.60% | -0.17 | 贵金属指数 NHPMI | 1523. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term soybean futures prices are highly volatile due to the game between cost - driven factors and industrial chain pressure in the domestic soybean market, while the three major oil futures prices are driven by different logics, and the differentiated trend in the oil market may continue. [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The positive outlook for US soybean demand has pushed the US soybean futures price to a one - and - a - half - year high, and the record - high US soybean crushing volume also supports the price. The short - term market oscillates between tight US soybean supply and lower - than - expected demand. The domestic soybean market is in a continuous game between cost - driven factors and industrial chain pressure. [5] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: BMD crude palm oil rebounded from a low level, supported by the expected tightening of the palm oil supply - demand outlook and the weakening of the ringgit. However, the weak exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 15 limited the increase. The palm oil futures price is still in the bottom - building phase. [7] 3.3 Other Varieties (General Information in Table) - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Influenced by imported soybean costs, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6] - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Supported by US soybean costs, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean costs, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - **Palm 2601**: Affected by its biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） 核心逻辑：美国农业部发布的 11 月份供需报告显示，美国大豆产量、出口以及期末库存均较 9 月份 下调。尽管中美达成贸易协议有助于推动美国对华出口增长，但是自协议签订以来美国大豆价格强劲 上涨，美豆相对南美大豆价格没有优势，导致美国出口降低。在美农报告预期兑现后，美豆期价缺乏 进一步驱动，对国内豆类期价支撑减弱。国内油厂受制于库存压力，短期豆粕市场受成本推动与政策 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in commodity prices, with significant increases in soybean and apple prices, while methanol and glass prices continue to decline [1][2][3][4] Group 2 - Soybean futures have seen a rise of 2.26%, marking the third consecutive day of gains, driven by positive market sentiment and expectations of favorable USDA reports [2] - Apple futures increased by 2.25%, supported by low cold storage inventory levels, which are currently at 7.64 million tons, down from 8.55 million tons last year [2] Group 3 - Methanol futures dropped by 2.47%, reaching a new low since May 2023, influenced by high domestic production and potential changes in Iranian supply dynamics [3] - Glass futures have also been declining, with a significant increase in open interest, indicating a bearish market sentiment despite stable supply levels [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of various commodity futures, highlighting significant price changes in coal, soybeans, methanol, rapeseed, and glass [1]. Group 2 - Coal futures experienced a decline of 2.14% [1] - Soybean futures saw an increase of 1.94% [1] - Methanol futures dropped by 1.85% [1] - Rapeseed futures fell by 1.77% [1] - Glass futures decreased by 1.71% [1]