金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： Beta 、换手率因子表现较好 -20250504》 2025-05-04 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-03》 2025-05-03 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 0.92%》 2025-05-03 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破压力位前保持中性 突破压力位前保持中性 上周周报(20250427)认为：全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估 值不高，建议在压力位突破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 维持原状。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 0.84%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，上证 50 下跌 0.59%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括传媒、计算机，传媒上涨 2.86%，综合金融、房地产 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.573 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 252 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7% and 44% respectively [1] - The company experienced a revenue increase of 15% in Q4 2024 but a significant drop in net profit by 32% [2] - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 859 million, with a net profit increase of 38% year-on-year [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the engraving machine and water cooling heat dissipation business faced pressure, leading to a 7% decline in total revenue for 2024 [2] - Revenue from smart control components, innovative consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and health environment products showed varied performance, with declines of 14%, 2%, and 53% respectively, while automotive electronics grew by 19% [2] - The innovative consumer electronics segment is expected to see a significant decline in engraving machine revenue, while the e-bike segment is projected to grow [2] Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin and the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items decreased by 4.6 and 3.4 percentage points year-on-year respectively [2] - The company’s expenses in sales, management, R&D, and finance increased year-on-year, with management expenses rising due to the absence of a previous year's stock incentive reversal [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in engraving machine business and stable growth in e-bike and automotive electronics in 2025 [3] - The company’s global production capacity and strong R&D capabilities are expected to enhance its competitive advantage [4] - The company has announced an incentive plan with targets for 2025 revenue growth of 25% to 50%, primarily driven by the e-cigarette and automotive electronics segments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "turnaround" investment opportunity presented by Shanghai Jahwa, highlighting its potential for recovery despite recent financial underperformance. The market's optimistic response is reflected in a 4.2% increase in stock price following the earnings report [1]. Financial Performance - Shanghai Jahwa reported revenues of 5.679 billion yuan and 1.704 billion yuan for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, with net profits of -833 million yuan and 217 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline in both metrics [1]. - The primary cause of the 2024 losses was attributed to goodwill impairment of approximately 610 million yuan, with actual operational losses being less severe [2]. Strategic Reforms - The company is actively addressing historical issues, including reducing social inventory and restructuring product and channel strategies. By the end of 2024, inventory decreased by 13.3% compared to the beginning of the year, and inventory turnover days for department store channels dropped from 342 days to 89 days [3]. - The transition from an online agency model to a self-operated model has improved pricing control and operational efficiency, leading to better performance during promotional events [3]. Growth Logic - Shanghai Jahwa is reshaping its growth strategy to align with industry trends, focusing on R&D innovation and brand development to enhance competitiveness. The company aims to leverage its professional expertise to drive growth [4]. - The introduction of upgraded products, such as the new mosquito repellent series and skincare lines, reflects the company's commitment to professional branding and product efficacy [4]. Market Trends - The consumer demand for cosmetics is increasingly rational and function-oriented, making professional capabilities essential for differentiating brands in a competitive market. Shanghai Jahwa's established expertise positions it well to capitalize on this trend [5]. Channel Development - The company has successfully integrated its online capabilities, with over 70% of sales for the Yuze brand coming from online channels. The focus on self-broadcasting has led to significant growth in GMV for brands like Yuze and Six Gods [6]. - Overall, Shanghai Jahwa's strategic depth and reform benefits suggest a positive outlook, indicating that the company is at a performance low point with potential for a turnaround and value reassessment [6].

泉果基金赵诣：关注AI方向及困境反转机会 金十数据4月22日讯，泉果旭源发布2025年度一季报。知名基金经理赵诣表示，随着贸易摩擦的加剧， 对于出口将产生较大的不确定性，因此对于全球化公司是否能有海外属地化运营能力将尤为关键；同时 在出口受到影响的情况下，国内对冲政策的力度也将值得关注。赵诣表示，他会主要关注两个投资方 向，一是处于较快增长的AI相关领域的头部互联网企业、计算机、电子、机械等方向；二是高端制造 中的新能源、军工等可能出现困境反转的方向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rock Co., Ltd. (stock code 600696) is facing delisting risk due to financial performance issues, including a revenue of 285 million yuan and a net loss of 217 million yuan in the previous year, leading to a change in stock name to *ST Rock from April 23 [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2023, Rock Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 285 million yuan, which is less than 300 million yuan, and a net loss of 217 million yuan, triggering delisting risk warnings [1][12] - By 2024, the company's revenue has shrunk to less than 20% of the previous year's figures, with significant declines in various product categories, with sales revenue dropping to 268 million yuan [2][12] Shareholder Dynamics - Despite the company's financial troubles, the number of shareholders increased from 23,834 at the end of 2023 to 45,972 by the end of 2024, nearly doubling [3][14] - As of March 2025, there are still over 44,000 shareholders holding Rock Co., Ltd. shares, indicating some investors are betting on a turnaround or potential acquisition [3][14] Corporate History and Changes - Rock Co., Ltd. has undergone ten name changes over its 30-year history, reflecting various ownership and operational shifts, including a transition to the liquor industry in 2018 [5][6] - The company previously achieved significant growth in liquor sales, with revenue rising from less than 60 million yuan to over 1 billion yuan in just a few years, but this growth has since reversed [6][12] Management and Operational Issues - The company has faced significant management turnover, with key executives leaving and the actual controller being detained by police, leading to operational instability [2][8] - Rock Co., Ltd. has also seen a drastic reduction in its distributor network, with 3,693 distributors leaving, leaving only 772 by the end of the previous year [13] Market Position - As of April 22, 2024, Rock Co., Ltd. has a market capitalization of approximately 2.7 billion yuan [15]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is leading globally, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 16.8% and 23.2% respectively as of March 28, 2025, indicating a significant revaluation of core technology assets [1][2] - The cumulative increase of Hong Kong tech leaders has surpassed that of US tech leaders since the beginning of 2024, reflecting strong performance in the sector [1][2] - The internet sector continues to maintain robust absolute growth, while the real estate sector shows signs of recovery from previous downturns, although confirmation is pending until all reports are released [3] Market Performance - The overall market performance indicates that the Hong Kong core indices are outperforming global counterparts, with significant contributions from valuation increases [2] - The market's earnings yield (ERP) is approaching historical high-pressure levels, suggesting increased volatility and market speculation [2] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has been a major contributor to this year's market gains, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains relatively low compared to global earnings levels [2] Fundamental Analysis - Preliminary statistics for the 2024 annual reports show that approximately 84% of Hong Kong stocks have disclosed their results, confirming a stabilization in the fundamentals [2] - The net profit growth for all Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong Stock Connect, and H-shares is reported at 12.0%, 4.9%, and 33.5% respectively, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2] Sector Focus - Future attention is directed towards two key marginal sectors: the Hang Seng Internet sector, which requires monitoring for base effect issues, and the cyclical/real estate chain, which is expected to show signs of recovery as downward pressures ease [3] - The internet sector continues to exhibit strong growth, while the real estate sector is beginning to show signs of a turnaround from previous challenges [3] Capital Flow and Pricing Issues - The overall capital flow in the Hong Kong market is at its highest level in the past decade, as indicated by absolute trading volumes and turnover rates [4] - Southbound capital is gaining pricing power, with a notable overweight in dividend-paying sectors and significant inflows into growth sectors [4] - Recent trends show that overseas capital has experienced a pattern of active selling followed by slight recovery, with a current trend of active outflows and passive inflows [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in stock ratings by analysts, highlighting the common themes of performance improvement and turnaround situations for several companies, particularly in the real estate and consumer sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Rating Upgrades - Analysts have upgraded ratings for 15 stocks in the past week, with many citing performance improvement and turnaround as key reasons [1]. - China Fortune Land Development (金地集团) was upgraded by both CICC and Zhongyin Securities despite reporting a loss in its 2024 annual report, indicating a potential turnaround due to reduced debt pressure and improved operational conditions [3][4]. - Sinopec (中国石化) received an upgrade to "Buy" from Dongfang Securities, with expectations of benefiting from an improving refining industry landscape [4]. Group 2: Performance Improvement - Significant performance improvement in Q4 2023 has led to rating upgrades for several companies, such as Furuida (福瑞达), which saw a notable increase in its non-GAAP net profit despite an overall decline in 2024 [6]. - Conch Cement (海螺水泥) was upgraded to "Buy" by Zhongyou Securities, as its Q4 net profit showed a 42% year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery trend [6][7]. Group 3: Rating Downgrades - Eight stocks have had their ratings downgraded, primarily in the food and beverage, beauty, and machinery sectors, with reasons including underperformance and excessive prior gains [9][10]. - Jinhuijiu (金徽酒) and Shede Liquor (舍得酒业) were downgraded by China Galaxy Securities due to significant profit declines, although future recovery is anticipated [10]. - Other downgraded stocks include Jinzai Food (劲仔食品) and Aimeike (爱美客), reflecting cautious sentiment from analysts despite potential long-term growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of stock prices in relation to company earnings and market expectations, emphasizing the importance of not buying stocks at high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, regardless of the company's perceived greatness [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Reaction - Yihai International's profit grew from 125 million to 790 million from 2015 to 2019, leading to a market capitalization surge to 120 billion, with a P/E ratio of 150 [2]. - The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant drop in Yihai's profits and market capitalization, with the stock price falling from 148 to 15, reflecting a P/E ratio decline to 17 [2]. - Similar patterns were observed with Pop Mart, where profits halved in 2022, leading to a stock price drop from 107 to 10, despite a recovery in 2023 [3]. - China Feihe's stock price fell from 25.7 to 6 due to declining birth rates and market pessimism, despite only a slight profit decrease [4]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Investment Strategy - The market often predicts company performance 1-2 years in advance, as seen with China Feihe and Luzhou Laojiao, where stock prices adjusted before earnings reports were released [7][8]. - The article suggests that smart investors should buy stocks during market lows when company fundamentals indicate potential recovery, as demonstrated by the investment in China Feihe at its lowest point [5][6]. - The strategy involves identifying companies with strong long-term growth potential while avoiding high P/E ratios during market euphoria [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector continues to show strong performance, with a year-to-date return of +4.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.2% [4][11] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in consumer healthcare, driven by recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][11] - Key investment themes include innovation in pharmaceuticals, turnaround opportunities, and the integration of AI technologies [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.59%, while the pharmaceutical sector increased by 1.77%, ranking 15th among 31 sub-industries [4][11] - Specific segments such as pharmaceutical commerce, traditional Chinese medicine, and medical services saw increases of 6.44%, 2.63%, and 1.46% respectively [4][11] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks include WuXi AppTec, Aier Eye Hospital, Dong-E E-Jiao, and others, with expected earnings growth and favorable valuations [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with improving fundamentals and low valuations, particularly in the eye care and dental sectors [5][11] Policy and Regulatory Developments - Recent government initiatives, including the introduction of child-rearing subsidies, are expected to positively impact the reproductive and maternal health sectors [6][7] - The National Healthcare Security Administration's guidelines for brain-computer interface services are anticipated to accelerate commercialization in this emerging field [6][11] Valuation Metrics - The pharmaceutical sector is currently valued at 23.4 times PE based on 2025 earnings forecasts, representing a 36.0% premium over the broader A-share market [17] - The TTM valuation stands at 27.3 times PE, which is below the historical average of 35.1 times PE, indicating potential for valuation recovery [17]

Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in the economic climate, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, lithium batteries, automotive, and agriculture [3][4] - Price increases are noted in upstream non-ferrous metals and construction materials, midstream manufacturing in lithium batteries, and downstream consumption in automotive and agriculture [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on cyclical resource products, consumer goods, and financial sectors, while also considering growth assets that are experiencing a turnaround [3][4] Industry Overview Upstream Sector - The prices of iron ore and rebar have decreased week-on-week, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has increased [9] - COMEX gold and silver futures prices have risen week-on-week, along with copper prices and rare earth metal prices [11][12] Midstream Manufacturing - In the lithium battery sector, the average price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable, while the price of ternary batteries has increased week-on-week [13] - In the photovoltaic sector, the average price of polysilicon remains unchanged, while the price of PERC solar cells has decreased [13] Downstream Consumption - In February, automotive sales reached 2.129 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, with significant growth in new energy vehicle sales [18] - The production of power batteries and energy storage batteries has also seen a substantial year-on-year increase of 128.2% [18] TMT Sector - The semiconductor sector shows an increase in the average spot prices of DRAM and NAND, with significant revenue growth reported by IC manufacturing and design companies [25] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The report highlights a decline in real estate development investment and housing starts, while the transaction area of commercial housing in major cities has increased significantly year-on-year [29][30]