Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile and upward trend. The "anti - involution and capacity reduction" proposal and the expected production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region have pushed up the prices of steel products. However, the actual implementation of these policies needs further verification. The static fundamentals of steel have no obvious contradictions, and future attention should be paid to policy trends, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The price of iron ore is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. The supply of iron ore has decreased, and the demand has also declined due to factors such as seasonal maintenance of blast furnaces and production cuts by some steel mills. The impact of macro - expectations on the market has increased, and attention should be paid to the interference of production restrictions in Tangshan and the reduction of pellet production expectations by Vale [6]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, the prices are expected to maintain a volatile or slightly rebound state in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are still uncertainties. Enterprises with hedging profit margins are recommended to conduct appropriate hedging operations [9][10]. - The price of industrial silicon is still in a downward trend. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but the comparison with the 2015 supply - side reform is questionable. Short - term speculative short positions are recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - For glass, the policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the sustainability of the rebound is limited [15][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.358%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained flat. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3208 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.532%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained flat [2]. - **Fundamentals**: This week, the apparent supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory depletion speed slowed down. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly increased, the demand declined, and the inventory slightly accumulated, but it was still at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 1.45% (+10.50). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 725 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.61% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the terminal demand was neutral. The port inventory changed little, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.24% at 5712 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was at a premium to the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.85% at 5390 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was also at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The prices are expected to be volatile or slightly rebound in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are uncertainties [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 2.44% at 8010 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, and both were at a premium to the futures [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend. The market's optimism about the "capacity reduction" policy needs further verification [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe increased by 21 yuan, and that in Central China remained flat. The national inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation pushed up the futures price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 20 yuan. The domestic inventory increased by 2.30%. The demand continued to decline, and the supply was still abundant. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the rebound sustainability is limited [15][17].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：边缘政治因素消除 大宗商品价格回落 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑： 昨日边缘政治因素消除，油气及产业链商品大幅下挫带动黑色系价格走弱，铁矿石 价格跟随运行。近期成材端需求延续淡季特征，但并未出现累库，整体表现强于预期。铁矿石 供给端保持季节性增量特征，但碳元素不断让利于铁元素，高炉利润水平相对可观，国内铁矿 石需求保持相对高位水平，对铁矿石价格形成一定支撑。6 月份以来铁矿石基差由现货向期货 回归，现货端价格较 5 月底出现大幅下滑，而盘面相对平稳。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负 ...

Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 430.8 billion, 261.8 billion, and 162 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 135.1 billion, 124.3 billion, and 63.6 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 122.5 billion, with a net financing amount of -7.2 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 392.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 107.3 billion [1] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 0.9 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Short-term interest rates in the bond market decreased while long-term rates fluctuated, influenced by factors such as liquidity, the Lujiazui conference, institutional behaviors, and geopolitical conflicts [2] Liquidity Tracking - Last week, there was a net injection through OMO, while MLF matured and was withdrawn, with the central bank conducting buyback operations to support the liquidity during the tax period [3] - The R001 and R007 rates decreased by 1.4 basis points and increased by 1 basis point respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic data for May showed stable production, rising consumption, and declining investment, with structural concerns remaining [4] - High-frequency data indicated a month-on-month decline in production, a decrease in both domestic and external consumption, and price differentiation in the production and residential sectors, with the Middle East conflict driving oil prices significantly higher [4] Overseas Market - The Federal Reserve's June FOMC statement was slightly hawkish, but U.S. consumption and production data were disappointing, exacerbating risk aversion in overseas markets [5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, down 3 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The A-share market experienced a decline in most broad-based indices due to capital outflows from new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as the impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict [6] - Specifically, the Wind All A index fell by 1.07%, the Wind Micro-Cap index dropped by 2.18%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.45%, and the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.55% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.22 trillion, down 156.644 billion week-on-week [6] - As of June 19, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 1,809.167 billion, an increase of 0.188 billion from June 12 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favorable to the bond market are gradually increasing in the second half of the year, with bond yields likely to face upward pressure [7] - The 10-year government bond yield has already reflected macro expectations to some extent, and short-term long-end rates are unlikely to present significant excess opportunities in the near term [7] - Short-term rates are still some distance from previous lows, and banks are balancing duration pressures, which may accumulate buying power for short-term bonds [7] - The logic of under-allocation in credit bonds continues, with a strategy prioritizing coupon collection in the short term [7] - In the convertible bond market, supply-demand conflicts persist, and liquidity remains relatively loose, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, making core varieties scarcer [7] - The convertible bond index has reached the upper range of its fluctuation zone, and opportunities in the index require catalysts, necessitating a focus on switching core varieties and monitoring for trading opportunities driven by sentiment [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory continuing and the price in a high - level game during the off - season [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% unchanged, and it may cut interest rates twice this year according to the dot - plot. Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday [2] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina didn't change much. Due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina. There is an expectation of a decline in the prices of alumina and auxiliary materials, weakening the cost support for electrolytic aluminum [3] - In June, the off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong. The weekly开工 rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, with different performances in each segment [3] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. The inventory reduction slowed down in mid - June. Affected by regional price differences and transfers, the inventory in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in the Central Plains increased significantly, while that in Foshan, South China decreased greatly, and other regions remained stable. The overall low casting volume in the short term supports the inventory reduction trend, but the increase in shipments from the northwest and regional transfers due to price differences have put pressure on East China and the Central Plains, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated [3] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it should be treated bearishly [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors increase price uncertainty. In the short term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The overall demand maintains a downward trend, and the expected growth rate of the supply side (arrival) increases month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Last week, the black series fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand relationship of finished products showed obvious off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The inventory of finished products continued to decline at a low level. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of US household appliance tariffs on the demand for plates. The supply of iron ore shows a seasonal incremental feature. The carbon element continuously gives way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit is not significantly compressed due to the price decline. The domestic demand for iron ore continues to decline slightly but remains at a relatively high level [3] Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly. The shipment from Australia increased significantly, while the shipment from Brazil declined from a high level, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Coupled with the fiscal year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that the overseas ore shipment will maintain a steady recovery trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - The domestic demand has declined from a high level but is still at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks. The current daily average is 241.61 (month - on - month - 0.19). The blast furnace is mainly under regular maintenance. The current profitability level of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Coupled with the full - depth losses of the short - process, it is expected that the molten iron will show an overall high - level decline trend but with a low downward slope. The high demand supports the price [3] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at the steel mill level increased month - on - month. The daily consumption continued to decline but was still at a high level in the same period. With the increase in the arrival volume and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory accumulated this period. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the restocking expectation is weak. It is expected that the inventory will tend to accumulate later, but due to the high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical sector is in a volatile trend. The downstream of the chemical industry is generally weak, with the terminal order index declining compared to May. The peak of supply - side maintenance was in May, and after destocking in May, the market frequently trades on the progress of device maintenance and restart. Currently, the maintenance schedule of a large refinery's reforming unit in East China is crucial. The energy and chemical sector should be treated with a volatile mindset [2]. - The geopolitical risk of crude oil is rising, and oil price fluctuations are intensifying. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical uncertainties make the oil price at a high - risk stage [1][4]. - The overall supply - demand situation of various energy and chemical products is different. For example, LPG demand is still weak, asphalt is over - valued, and PTA supply increases while demand decreases [2][5][11]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market View - **Crude Oil**: On June 11, SC2507 closed at 478.1 yuan/barrel with a change of - 0.35%, and Brent2508 closed at 70.78 dollars/barrel with a change of + 6.28%. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the market is worried about direct military conflicts between the US, Israel and Iran. OPEC+ production increase makes the supply expected to be relatively excessive, and the oil price is in a high - risk stage, expected to fluctuate [4]. - **LPG**: On June 11, PG 2507 closed at 4130 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.27%. Domestic refinery maintenance is gradually restored, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The upward rebound space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8][9]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt futures closed at 3483 yuan/ton. The asphalt price is over - valued, and the asphalt spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts. The price is under pressure from factors such as increased heavy - oil supply and sufficient domestic raw material supply [4][5]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2966 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3559 yuan/ton. It follows the crude oil to fluctuate, with weak supply - demand, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [8]. - **Methanol**: On June 11, the methanol price fluctuated. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - **Urea**: On June 11, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1730 and 1740 yuan/ton respectively. The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On June 11, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated. The market trading logic is shifting, and it is recommended to wait and see. It has support at 4200 - 4300 yuan, and short - selling is not recommended [13]. - **PX**: On June 11, PX CFR China Taiwan was 812 dollars/ton. The cost - end guidance slows down, and the supply - demand game intensifies. It is expected to continue to consolidate [10]. - **PTA**: On June 11, the PTA spot price was 4820 yuan/ton. Supply increases and demand decreases, and the market price is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Styrene**: On June 11, the East China styrene spot price was 7720 yuan/ton. Driven by the macro - meeting and device rumors, it rebounds, but the subsequent driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: On June 9, the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber followed the raw materials to fluctuate. The supply - side pressure is relieved, and the processing fee compression space is limited. It is expected to be dominated by macro - negative factors [14][15]. - **Bottle - Chip**: On June 11, the polyester bottle - chip factory price was mostly stable. The low processing fee continues, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **PP**: On June 11, the East China wire - drawing mainstream transaction price was 7050 yuan/ton. The cost - end support marginally rebounds, but the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [20]. - **Plastic**: On June 11, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7150 yuan/ton. The cost - end support marginally rebounds, but the supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19]. - **PVC**: On June 11, the East China calcium - carbide - method PVC benchmark price was 4790 yuan/ton. The short - term sentiment warms up, and it rebounds weakly. In the long - term, the supply - demand is pessimistic, and the price is under pressure [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: On June 11, the Shandong 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2719 yuan/ton. The spot price has peaked, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The 09 - contract fundamental expectation is pessimistic [22]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. have different changes. For example, SC's M1 - M2 spread is 5 with a change of 1, and WTI's M1 - M2 spread is 1.09 with a change of 0.02 [23]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the asphalt basis is 259 with a change of 17, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [24]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of pairs such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented with their corresponding changes [25]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The data for specific chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are mentioned, but detailed data are not fully provided in the summary part [26][38][50].

Report Date - The report is dated June 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different trends such as price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and upward or downward trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction restricts price decline. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,290 yuan with a daily increase of 0.52%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,647 dollars with a decline of 0.80%. China's 1 - 5 month cumulative import of copper ore and concentrates increased by 7.4% year - on - year [5][7] - **Aluminum**: Need to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,250 yuan. Alumina is expected to run weakly, with the Shanghai alumina main contract closing at 2,895 yuan [8] - **Zinc**: Short - term oscillation, with attention to inventory. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,140 yuan with an increase of 1.35%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons [11] - **Lead**: Range - bound trading. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,845 yuan with a decline of 0.21%. LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [14] - **Tin**: Stopped falling and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,530 yuan with an increase of 0.80%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 4,800 yuan compared to the previous day [18] - **Nickel**: The reality support and weak expectation are in a game, and the nickel price oscillates. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 121,790 yuan. Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, and the steel price is range - bound. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,600 yuan [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, and the fundamentals remain weak. The 2507 contract of carbonate lithium closed at 61,680 yuan [28] - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and the upside space is limited. The Si2507 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,560 yuan. Polysilicon: The spot is weak, and the disk has a downward drive. The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 34,255 yuan [31] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it oscillates within a range. The futures price closed at 707.0 yuan with an increase of 1.22% [34] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are in wide - range oscillations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,991 yuan with an increase of 0.67%, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,108 yuan with an increase of 0.78% [37] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon is in wide - range oscillations due to production cuts in major producing areas. The silicon ferrosilicon 2507 contract closed at 5,298 yuan. Manganese silicon is weakly oscillating as overseas miners' quotes decline. The manganese silicon 2507 contract closed at 5,472 yuan [41] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is in wide - range oscillations. Coking coal is in wide - range oscillations as safety inspections become stricter. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 783.5 yuan with a decline of 0.19%, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,356 yuan with an increase of 0.52% [46] - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and it is in wide - range oscillations. The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day [51] - **Rubber**: Oscillating. The rubber main contract closed at 13,890 yuan during the day session [61] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by strong crude oil, it is in short - term oscillations. The main contract of synthetic rubber (07 contract) closed at 11,225 yuan [65] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are large differences in pressure from the origin, and it is grinding the bottom in oscillations. The palm oil is in a state of range - bound trading with a focus on the pressure from the origin [58] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force is temporarily weak, and it is in range - bound trading. The soybean oil is currently in a range - bound state with limited driving factors [58] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to good weather and a decline in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. The soybean meal market was affected by the weather and US soybean prices [60] - **Soybean**: Due to the expectation of provincial reserve sales, the futures price declined. The soybean market was influenced by the expectation of provincial reserve sales [60] - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly. The corn market shows a relatively strong oscillating trend [62] - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level. The sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase [64] - **Cotton**: Continuing to be affected by market sentiment. The cotton market is still under the influence of market sentiment [65] - **Egg**: The negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released, waiting for the confirmation of chicken culling. The egg market is waiting for the impact of chicken culling after the plum - rain season [67] - **Live Pig**: Still waiting for the confirmation of the spot market. The live pig market is awaiting the performance of the spot market [68] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market. The peanut market requires attention to the spot price [69]

Group 1 - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased geopolitical risks, leading to a significant rebound in international crude oil prices [2] - The PTA market is expected to face considerable downward pressure due to weakening macroeconomic expectations and trade conflicts between the US and Europe [2][3] - Domestic crude oil prices have been operating at low levels since April, with a bearish trend in technical indicators [3] Group 2 - The import volume of PX in China decreased significantly in April, indicating weak terminal demand in the polyester industry [4] - The domestic PTA market is under dual pressure from increasing new capacity and slowing downstream demand growth [5] - The domestic PTA production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, but the overall supply pressure remains high [5][6] Group 3 - Downstream polyester demand has shown slight improvement, but overall growth remains limited due to weak terminal orders and inventory pressure [6] - The supply-demand structure for PTA remains weak, with increasing supply from new capacities and recovering existing facilities [7] - The geopolitical factors have raised crude oil price premiums, but the overall supply-demand dynamics suggest significant upward pressure on prices [7]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the investment rating for the industry [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the prices of different agricultural products show different trends, with corn expected to fluctuate upward, soybean meal to fluctuate and rise, oils and fats to fluctuate weakly, eggs to fluctuate weakly, and live pigs to fluctuate [1] Group 3 - The prices of different agricultural products show different trends. Corn prices are expected to fluctuate upward, with short - term fluctuations ending and prices resuming upward. In the northeast region, mainstream corn prices rose slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises also raised their purchase prices. In North China, corn prices were generally stable with a slight weakness [1] - Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate and rise. CBOT soybeans closed higher on Thursday, but favorable weather in the central United States limited price increases. Domestic soybean meal showed a narrow - range fluctuation, with funds mainly flowing out. The supply pressure of soybean meal is postponed to mid - June [1] - Oils and fats prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. BMD palm oil rose for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, and high - frequency data previously showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June. Domestic palm oil increased in positions and reached a two - week high [1] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Egg futures prices rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices were stable, with supply increasing until August. The supply - demand fundamentals are bearish, and egg prices are expected to remain weak until there is an unexpectedly large increase in culling. However, egg prices in low - price areas have fallen below the cost line, so the downward space for later egg prices is relatively limited [1] - Live pig prices are expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the live pig futures contract 2509 broke through the integer support of 13,500 yuan, then rebounded due to the positive sentiment of the macro and surrounding commodities. Spot pig prices were stable with a slight strength this week [1] Group 4 - US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows that private exporters reported selling 101,096 tons of corn to unknown destinations and 104,000 tons to Mexico, all for the 2024/2025 sales year [3] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that there is undoubtedly an economic emergency in the US, and the government has multiple options on trade issues. The government has a high chance of winning in court rulings and appeals regarding trade issues [3] - Agricultural information agency Sovecon reported that Russia's grain exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.94 billion tons, lower than 5.02 billion tons in 2024/25. Russia's wheat exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.08 billion tons, an increase of 110 million tons compared to the previous year [3] - Malaysian Minister of Plantation and Commodities announced that Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground - transport vehicles from B10 to B20 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation is weak, and the black commodities are oscillating. Steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment and are in an oscillating state. Iron ore prices are oscillating with high - level iron - water production. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose, and their prices are oscillating. The demand for thermal coal is weak, and the decline in coal prices has narrowed [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated slightly. The main rebar contract 2510 closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the main hot - rolled coil contract 2510 closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market was average, and the overall transaction in the spot market was also average, with the national building materials sales volume at 98000 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials have improved month - on - month. However, considering the good profits of long - process production, the output of building materials remains stable. As the southern region enters the flood season, the consumption of building materials will gradually decline. The output of plates has decreased, consumption remains high, and inventory is continuously decreasing, supporting plate prices. Steel exports are resilient due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market. Although domestic exports have largely offset the decline in exports to the US, high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on future exports, resulting in weak steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side policies and the impact of tariffs on indirect steel exports [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures market oscillated upward. As of the close, the main iron ore contract 2509 rose by 0.76%. In the spot market, the price indices of port iron ore showed mixed trends, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The cumulative trading volume of national main port iron ore and forward - looking spot decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Comprehensive View**: The shipment of iron ore has recovered this period. The iron - water production is oscillating at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remains relatively high, but there is no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of loose supply - demand, but when the actual situation turns to looseness depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies. Attention should be paid to iron ore shipments, blast furnace restart and maintenance, and the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the double - coking futures oscillated as a whole. For coke, the steel prices have been oscillating downward recently, and the trading volume is weak. For coking coal, as the second - round price cut for coke is emerging, the market is pessimistic. Coke enterprises continue to replenish inventory as needed. Some prices were lowered by 20 - 40 yuan/ton yesterday, and most auction transactions ended with price cuts, with a high rate of auction failures. In the imported Mongolian coal market, the bearish expectation is strong, the shipment pressure at the port is high, and the market trading volume continues to weaken [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, coke enterprises still have profits, and the coke supply is relatively stable. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season and may decline. Therefore, some steel mills are controlling their procurement. The overall coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand expectation in the off - season is weak. Although coke is supported to some extent by the high - level iron - water production of steel mills, there are concerns about future inventory reduction, and coking coal shows a trend of inventory accumulation. Without actual driving factors such as macro - level benefits or coal mine production cuts, the supply - demand of coking coal is expected to remain loose. Attention should be paid to changes in iron - water production and the impact of overseas tariff policies [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to oscillate weakly; coke is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin area, the decline in port prices has slowed down recently, and the pit - mouth coal prices have been slightly lowered. The market sentiment has slightly eased. The number of coal - hauling trucks in a few coal mines has increased, reducing inventory pressure. In the port area, the port market is running weakly and steadily. The market inquiry demand has increased, and the quotes are gradually firming up. However, the port inventory remains high, and the short - term market is difficult to rebound. In the import market, the imported coal market is running weakly and steadily. As the domestic coal price continues to fall, the bid price of imported coal continues to decline, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: In the short term, the demand for coal prices lacks support. As the weather warms up, the price clearly lacks support. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].