Group 1: Policy Differences - The new policy financial tools in 2023 are aimed at supporting domestic demand and technological innovation, contrasting with the 2022 focus on stabilizing growth[3] - The new tools will prioritize eight key sectors, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon initiatives, with 20% of funding directed to private enterprises[3][10] - Infrastructure investment growth has declined significantly, with August's year-on-year growth rates at -5.9% and -6.4% for new and old standards respectively, indicating a shift in funding usage towards debt repayment rather than project construction[3][10] Group 2: Funding Sources and Economic Impact - The funding sources for the new policy tools differ from 2022, as the current PSL rate is higher than the issuance rate of policy bonds, reducing the necessity for PSL support[4][21] - If the new policy financial tools leverage the same 5.5 times ratio as in 2022, the 500 billion yuan allocation could mobilize 2.75 trillion yuan in new social financing, potentially driving 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan in fixed asset investment[5][30] - The net financing of local government bonds has been negative, with a cumulative net financing of -421.9 billion yuan from January to September 2023, reflecting a reduced willingness for traditional infrastructure investment[10][21] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - There may be discrepancies in understanding the policy details, which could lead to differences between expectations and actual implementation[6][31] - The timing of policy rollout and its impact on investment may fall short of expectations, particularly as the fourth quarter approaches and construction activity may slow down[6][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current high copper prices and the impact of various economic factors on commodity markets, including government policies, production targets, and market trends in different sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Trends - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting project capital, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [1]. - From January to August, state-owned enterprises reported total revenue of 539,620.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while total profits decreased by 2.7% to 27,937.2 billion yuan [1]. - The domestic commodity futures market saw a general decline, particularly in energy and chemical products, indicating a bearish trend in these sectors [1]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices rose by 1.59% in the night session, with a significant reduction in China's copper production growth target for 2025-2026 from 5% to 1.5% [2][21]. - The ongoing tight supply of copper concentrate and high smelting profits are expected to support copper prices in the long term, especially following mining incidents in Indonesia [2][21]. Group 3: Stock Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight increases, with the non-bank financial sector leading gains, while coal stocks lagged [3][12]. - The financing balance decreased by 193.55 billion yuan to 24,080.56 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach among investors as the market enters a consolidation phase after a prolonged rally [3][12]. Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - The SC crude oil price fell by 2.87%, influenced by Russia's export bans on diesel and gasoline amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][14]. - The US labor department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, suggesting a resilient labor market, which may impact oil demand [4][14]. Group 5: Agricultural Products and Commodities - The article highlights fluctuations in agricultural commodities, with Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and derivatives affecting global markets [28]. - The domestic market anticipates increased supply due to this policy change, leading to potential downward pressure on prices [28].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 29, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 288.6 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a stable overall funding condition, with structural issues becoming apparent at the end of the month; overnight funding remained abundant, while cross-quarter funding prices remained high [3] - The overnight repo weighted average rate for deposit-taking institutions approached 1.3%, marking a two-year low [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.18% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.685% [6] Group 4: Major Interest Rate Bond Yields - The yields for various government bonds were reported as follows: - 1-year: 1.3550% - 2-year: 1.4150% - 3-year: 1.5320% - 5-year: 1.6175% - 7-year: 1.7525% - 10-year: 1.8060% [10] Group 5: Recent City Investment Bonds (AAA) Yield Spread Trends - The article provides insights into the yield spread trends for city investment bonds, although specific data points are not detailed in the provided text [11] Group 6: National Debt Futures Closing - The closing prices for national debt futures were as follows: - 30-year main contract: down 0.47% - 10-year main contract: down 0.01% - 5-year main contract: down 0.04% - 2-year main contract: down 0.02% [13] Group 7: Key News and Information - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital and promoting economic development [14] - From January to August, a total of 38,874 billion yuan in new local government bonds were issued, including 6,208 billion yuan in general bonds and 32,666 billion yuan in special bonds [14] Group 8: Global Macro Insights - Federal Reserve officials indicated the need to maintain a restrictive policy stance due to inflationary pressures, particularly in the service sector, and projected that inflation rates may remain above target for the next 1-2 years [16]

抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投放到具体项目。 备受市场关注的新型政策性金融工具有了新进展。 国家发改委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超29日在发布会上透露，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决 策部署，促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投资，国家发改委会同有关方面积极推进新型政策 性金融工具有关工作。新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 国家发改委在8月1日的新闻发布会上表示"将报批加快设立投放新型政策性金融工具"。9月10日，国家 发改委主任郑栅洁向全国人大常委会报告下半年工作时也提到，将加快设立投放新型政策性金融工具。 从各地公开信息来看，新型政策性金融工具将重点聚焦数字经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域基础 设施、绿色低碳转型、农业农村、交通和物流以及市政和产业园区等重点领域。 银河证券研究报告认为，政策性金融工具作为"准财政"工具，将成为地方政府债务化解周期拉动有效投 资的政策选择。该工具意在解决项目建设资本金不足问题，其投资领域可能包括消费基础设施、"两 重""两新"等。 华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘分析，在地产周期持续磨底、而货币政策空间收窄的背景下，财政政策 对中国逆周期调 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that six departments have issued measures to support high-quality digital innovation enterprises in their listing and financing efforts [1] - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide market-oriented financial services tailored to the investment and financing needs of digital innovation enterprises [1] - The measures include optimizing the evaluation mechanism for state-owned venture capital and incorporating the cultivation of digital economy "gazelle" and "unicorn" enterprises into the assessment criteria [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments have released a work plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry for 2025-2026 [2] - The plan outlines ten specific measures focusing on enhancing industrial technological innovation, increasing effective supply capacity, expanding effective investment, and broadening market demand [2] - The petrochemical industry is expected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with significant improvements in economic efficiency and technological innovation capabilities [2]

Economic Overview - The "924" policy has transformed the A-share market from "ice-breaking" to a "slow bull" phase, but economic recovery faces complex challenges from both domestic and international fronts[4] - External factors include weakened U.S. import demand and declining global trade momentum, while internal pressures involve manufacturing investment nearing growth thresholds and diminishing effects of "two new" policies[4] Export Performance - September's low base will provide a natural buffer for export growth, with resilience in non-U.S. demand supporting exports despite a slowdown in U.S. imports[4] - Container throughput at Chinese ports has increased, indicating a diversified trade structure and support from non-U.S. economies[4] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth is expected to slow in September due to weak external demand and internal "anti-involution" policies[5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to narrow its decline, reflecting a potential turning point in industrial prices[5] Manufacturing and Retail - Manufacturing PMI is likely to rise in September due to seasonal factors, with a high probability of month-on-month increases[5] - Retail sales, particularly in home appliances and passenger vehicles, have entered negative growth territory, indicating a waning effect of "two new" policies and high base pressures[5] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate transactions remain at historical lows, with the "golden September and silver October" showing lackluster performance, although second-hand housing transactions exhibit resilience[6] - Manufacturing investment growth has slowed to 5.1% year-on-year, approaching the critical "around 5%" economic growth target, necessitating policy support for sustained growth[6] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment has faced downward pressure due to extreme weather and financing challenges, but recent indicators suggest a potential marginal improvement[7] - The upcoming policy measures are expected to mitigate investment downturns and support the annual economic growth target[7] Policy Outlook - There is potential for new policy tools to counteract current investment pressures and support the "around 5%" growth target[7] - Increased focus on technological innovation and support for emerging industries is anticipated ahead of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of policies, unexpected changes in domestic economic conditions, and fluctuations in export dynamics[7]

Meeting Details - The meeting was convened in accordance with the Company Law and the Articles of Association [2] - Meeting notice and materials were sent via email on September 16, 2025 [3] - The meeting took place on September 22, 2025, in a telecommunication voting format [4] - All 11 directors attended the meeting, including both independent and non-independent directors [5] Resolutions Passed - The board approved a proposal for the company to apply for a new policy financial tool loan from the National Development Bank and other policy banks, with a total amount not exceeding 600 million yuan, for a term of 20 years, and an interest rate not exceeding the five-year LPR [6] - The funds will be used to increase the registered capital of Guangxi Tanbai Expressway Co., Ltd. for the G80 Guangkun Expressway Nanning to Baise section expansion project [6] - The proposal received unanimous support with 11 votes in favor, and no votes against or abstentions [7]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August 2025, general public budget revenue totaled CNY 14.82 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[2] - General public budget expenditure for the same period reached CNY 17.93 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[2] - In August 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 1.24 trillion, up 2.0% year-on-year, while expenditure was CNY 1.86 trillion, reflecting a 0.8% increase[4] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue continues to outperform non-tax revenue, with August tax revenue growing by 3.4% year-on-year, marking five consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Manufacturing accounted for over 30% of total tax revenue, with a growth rate exceeding 5% in the first eight months of 2025[5] - Securities transaction stamp duty surged by 226% in August, driven by increased market activity, contributing significantly to tax revenue growth[8] Fiscal Pressure and Challenges - The fiscal data for August indicates mounting pressure, with weakened consumption impacting tax revenue and a declining real estate sector exacerbating fiscal income challenges[23] - Government fund revenue fell by 5.7% year-on-year in August, primarily due to a 5.8% drop in land transfer income[18] - Infrastructure spending remains weak, with related expenditures showing a significant decline of 13.2% when combined[13] Future Outlook and Policy Implications - The necessity for incremental policy measures is rising due to anticipated economic pressures and the nearing end of government bond issuance in the fourth quarter[23] - The potential for early utilization of next year's debt quota and the timing of policy financial tools will be critical in supporting economic stability[23]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the resolution of local government hidden debts may be achieved by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan or the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, but local government leverage remains high, necessitating the central bank to maintain low interest rates in an uncertain revenue environment [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The focus of new policy financial tools will be on eight key areas: digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, infrastructure in consumer sectors, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture and rural development, transportation and logistics, as well as municipal and industrial parks [1] - There is a high demand for incremental fiscal support, suggesting that the dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policies will continue in the future [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure performance was relatively stable. Tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth turned positive for the first time, possibly an early sign of improved economic vitality, but land transfer revenue still had a large drag, reflecting the inertia of the "old economy." The general budget target for this year is not difficult to achieve, while the government - funded budget may face a certain gap, but policy - based financial instruments may form a certain hedge [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 General Budget Revenue - **Overall Growth and Composition**: In August, the national general budget revenue increased by 2.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than July. Tax revenue increased by 3.4% (previous value 5.0%), and non - tax revenue's year - on - year decline narrowed from - 12.9% to - 3.8%. From January to August, tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth was 0.02%, the first positive growth this year, and non - tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.5% [1]. - **Total Progress and Regional Differences**: From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general budget revenue was 0.3%, 0.1% higher than the annual budget target, and about 67% of the annual budget was completed, slightly faster than the same period last year. In August, the year - on - year growth of central and local fiscal revenues was both 2.0%, with a slight decline from the previous value. Considering the convergence of economic data in recent months, there may still be some pressure on revenue growth in the future [2]. 3.2 Tax Structure - **High - growth Taxes**: In August, value - added tax, personal income tax, and corporate income tax continued to grow rapidly. Value - added tax increased by 4.4% year - on - year, personal income tax and corporate income tax increased by 9.7% and 33.4% respectively, mainly related to strengthened tax supervision, active capital markets, and improved corporate profitability [3]. - **Slowing - growth Taxes**: The year - on - year growth rate of consumption tax slowed down to 0.9% (previous value 5.4%). Low consumer enthusiasm and high - base pressure in the fourth quarter may affect consumption tax revenue [3]. - **Declining Taxes**: The decline of real - estate - related taxes widened, with a 11.6% year - on - year decrease in August. Real - estate policies had limited impact on sales, and investment and construction indicators continued to decline [4]. - **Increasing Taxes**: The year - on - year growth of stamp duty further increased, with the year - on - year growth of stamp duty rising from 24% in July to 154%, and the year - on - year growth of securities trading stamp duty rising from 125% to 226%, due to the strong rise of the stock market [4]. 3.3 General Budget Expenditure - **Overall Growth**: In August, general public budget expenditure increased by 0.8% year - on - year, slower than the previous value of 3.0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first eight months was 3.1%, lower than the annual budget target of 4.4% [5]. - **Expenditure Areas**: The main driving force was still people's livelihood expenditure, such as social security and employment, health, and education. Infrastructure - related expenditure was still weak, and the growth rate of generalized and narrow - sense infrastructure investment declined [5]. 3.4 Government - Funded Revenue - **Overall Growth**: In August, government - funded revenue decreased by 5.7% year - on - year, turning negative from positive. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth was - 1.4%, lower than the annual budget target of 0.7%. Land transfer revenue's cumulative year - on - year decline was 4.7% [6]. - **Completion Progress and Forecast**: By August, government - funded revenue had completed about 42% of the annual budget. Assuming the current real - estate demand trend continues, the annual revenue growth of the second - account budget is expected to be around - 5%, resulting in a revenue gap of 300 - 500 billion yuan [6]. 3.5 Government - Funded Expenditure - **Growth and Reasons**: In August, government - funded expenditure increased by 19.8% year - on - year, still maintaining high growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first eight months was 30.0%, above the annual budget target of 23.1%. The high - intensity expenditure was mainly due to the front - loaded issuance of local bonds and the injection of special treasury bonds [7]. - **Combined Fiscal Deficit**: The combined broad - fiscal deficit of the two accounts in the first eight months was 6.7 trillion yuan, nearly 2 trillion yuan higher than the same period last year. After excluding the 500 - billion - yuan special treasury bond for capital injection, the broad - fiscal deficit was 6.2 trillion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2022 [7]. 3.6 Future Fiscal Concerns - **Rhythm**: In the third quarter, replacement bonds and special treasury bonds were completed successively. In the fourth quarter, government bond supply will enter a low - season, and the fiscal support for the economy will decline year - on - year, but there is still room for the expenditure of existing funds, mainly in the general budget [9]. - **Tools**: In August, core economic indicators weakened, and the market expected pro - growth policies. However, considering the small gap in the annual target, the possibility of additional fiscal deficits in the fourth quarter is low. Policy - based financial instruments are the core focus, and attention should also be paid to whether there is incremental support for implicit debt resolution [9]. - **Investment Direction**: This year, fiscal focus is not only on infrastructure, but also on child - rearing subsidies, urban renewal, consumer loan interest subsidies, and enterprise arrears. These will still be the focus of future efforts, and attention should be paid to whether there is incremental capital support [9].