Core Insights - The Brazilian Central Bank has indicated that recent data shows core inflation and underlying inflation metrics remain above the inflation target [1] Summary by Category - **Inflation Metrics** - Core inflation and underlying inflation indicators are currently higher than the established inflation target [1]

（加拿大央行）政策能在支持经济的同时侧重于价格稳定性。 许多公司报告称，打算针对（美国总统特朗普挑起的）关税涨价。 发生严峻贸易战的可能性降低，但美国政策存在不可预见性。 加拿大央行会议纪要：如果经济走弱，通胀受抑，可能会降息。 央行在6月份按兵不动，但会上有讨论降息25个基点的可能性。 如果核心通胀顽固，央行降息的难度将加大。 央行同意谨慎行动，让政策的前瞻性低于以往。 不确定核心（通胀率）表现出波动性、还是持续承压。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The joint issuance of the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen to Deepen Reform and Innovation and Expand Opening - up" by the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council may prompt Hong Kong - listed tech giants to list in A - shares, trigger the rapid inclusion rules of several A - share broad - based indices, and promote index - level market trends while enhancing the "new economy" and "new technology" content of the indices for long - term upward expectations [2] - The China - US trade representatives reached an agreement framework in London, canceling some additional tariffs and reciprocal counter - tariffs, but the impact on the index level was not significant [2] - The US May PPI had a mild increase, core inflation was better than expected, and the labor market cooled, leading the market to resume the expectation of two Fed rate cuts this year [2] - Recent south - bound capital flow has boosted the Hong Kong stock market, while the A - share market has been mainly volatile, with a slight increase in daily average trading volume to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day and a slow return of margin trading, with the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan this week [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, resulting in a negative weekly line. All broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline ranging from 0.2% to 0.8% for the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - Affected by short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news, the non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure. The annualized cost of near - month contracts was low, and near - end hedging could be maintained [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4] Weekly Review - The A - share market was mainly volatile this week, with daily average trading volume slightly increasing to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day, and the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, and all broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline of the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000 ranging from 0.2% to 0.8%, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - The non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly due to short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure [2]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The overall CPI in the US increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, also falling short of market expectations[2] - Energy inflation continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% in May, while food prices increased by 2.9% year-on-year[3] Group 2: Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation remained stable, indicating that the impact of tariffs on US inflation may be less than anticipated[3] - The month-on-month growth rate of core CPI was lower than expected, which may alleviate market concerns about inflation[3] - The contribution of core goods to inflation is increasing, with core goods year-on-year growth rising to 0.28% in May[3] Group 3: Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to have a gradual impact on inflation, with evidence of businesses passing costs onto consumers[4] - Less than 30% of businesses chose not to pass on tariff costs, with most completing cost transfers within three months[4] - The potential for "stagflation" is currently low, as stable oil and food prices help anchor inflation expectations[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with the first potential cut expected in Q4 2025, possibly fewer than anticipated[5] - Ongoing monitoring of inflation trends and tariff policies is essential, especially with upcoming FOMC meetings and tax legislation[5]

美国5月CPI数据将在今晚20:30重磅公布，市场预计关税的影响已开始传导至商品价格，恐推高核心通 胀。最终数据是确认美联储"继续等"，还是印证特朗普的"没有通胀"？点击查看更多前瞻... 相关链接 今晚20:30 美国CPI数据搅动市场 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：大多数核心通胀数据表明通胀将会稳定在目标水平。 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan's core inflation is rising due to a combination of post-pandemic economic recovery, a tightening labor market, and supply shocks [1] Group 1 - The increase in core inflation is influenced by the economic recovery following the pandemic [1] - A tightening labor market is contributing to the rise in domestic prices and wage levels [1] - Supply shocks are also impacting the inflationary pressures in Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need for cautious evaluation of the impact of rising food prices on core inflation, as the underlying inflation level is now closer to the 2% target compared to a few years ago [1] Group 1 - The current level of underlying inflation is approaching the 2% target, indicating a shift in economic conditions [1] - The Bank of Japan is focusing on the effects of food price increases on core inflation metrics [1]

Core Inflation Outlook - Singapore's core inflation is expected to remain moderate for the remainder of the year, according to a report by DBS Bank's senior economist Chua Han Teng [1] - The expectation reflects DBS Bank's outlook on curbing input inflation and reducing the pass-through of corporate costs to consumer prices [1] - There are anticipated downward risks to Singapore's inflation, aligning with the Monetary Authority of Singapore's moderate assessment [1] Economic Context - A slowdown in global trade may adversely affect Singapore's export-dependent economy, potentially weakening domestic labor demand and wage growth [1]

Group 1 - Japan's core inflation rose at its fastest pace in over two years in April, with the core consumer price index (CPI) increasing by 3.5% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 3.4% and up from 3.2% in March, indicating persistent inflation above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years [1][2] - The inflation rate for food accelerated from 6.2% in March to 7.0% in April, driven by significant price increases in various food items, including a 98.6% rise in rice prices and a 31% increase in chocolate prices [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to consider another interest rate hike by October, despite market skepticism due to the impact of U.S. trade tensions, with a slight majority of economists predicting a 25 basis point increase by year-end [1][3] Group 2 - A separate inflation index, excluding fuel and fresh food, rose by 3.0% year-on-year in April, up from 2.9% in March, indicating strong underlying demand-driven price pressures [2] - Service sector inflation was more subdued at 1.3% in April, down from 1.4% in March, suggesting companies are slow to pass on rising labor costs [2] - The potential for further increases in consumer prices in May is anticipated as the effects of government measures to curb inflation wane, with ongoing global weather patterns and rice supply shortages likely to keep food prices elevated [2]