Summary of Conference Call on Stablecoins and Global Monetary Changes Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the global monetary changes and the emergence of stablecoins as a significant financial instrument in the evolving monetary landscape [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Nature of Money**: Money is defined as a social consensus accounting symbol, which does not necessarily need to be issued by centralized entities. The key is the belief and trust in its value [4][5]. 2. **Evolution of Gold Pricing**: Since 2022, the pricing framework for gold has changed significantly, making it unlikely to revert to previous models based on real interest rates [1]. 3. **Emergence of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins have gained attention due to regulatory developments in the US and Hong Kong, emerging as a product of the global monetary changes and the trend towards decentralization [2][3]. 4. **Trust and Credit**: The trust in stablecoins is primarily based on the credit of fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar, which underpins most stablecoins [6][9]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: The stablecoin market has seen significant growth, with a total market cap of approximately $245 billion, representing about 7% of the total new currency market [20]. 6. **Types of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins can be categorized into three types: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, each with different mechanisms for maintaining value stability [17][18]. 7. **Impact on US Dollar**: The development of stablecoins is seen as enhancing the dominance of the US dollar rather than undermining it, as they facilitate access to dollar liquidity in regions with unstable currencies [10][27]. 8. **Regulatory Environment**: Recent US regulations require that for every dollar of stablecoin issued, there must be an equivalent dollar in compliant assets, which aims to enhance trust and stability in the market [25][26]. 9. **Short-term Debt Market**: While stablecoins may increase demand for short-term US debt, their overall impact on interest rates is limited, as the Federal Reserve primarily influences these rates [11][28]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term development of stablecoins is expected to be significant, particularly in cross-border payments, but their growth will depend on the underlying trust in the US dollar and the broader economic context [14][29]. Other Important Insights - **Global Trade and Monetary Systems**: The interconnectedness of global trade and monetary systems means that changes in one area can significantly impact the other, particularly regarding trust in currencies [3][13]. - **Emerging Markets**: Stablecoins are becoming increasingly important in emerging markets, where they provide a means for individuals and businesses to access stable currency alternatives [24]. - **Misconceptions about Stablecoins**: Common misconceptions include the belief that stablecoins weaken the dollar and that all currencies can issue stablecoins, which is not the case as most are dollar-pegged [15][19]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding stablecoins and their role in the evolving global monetary landscape.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years (from fiscal year 2025 to 2034) compared to the House version, intensifying the US fiscal balance pressure. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit [3][11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [3][12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries [3][14]. - From June 30 to July 5, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.75% week - on - week and decreased by 16.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 2.26% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline widened to 9.35%. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 5.23% year - on - year [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years compared to the House version. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit. After the bill passes, the US fiscal balance pressure increases, and there is uncertainty about future fiscal policies [11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries. The risk of the US unilaterally escalating tariffs in the short - term is relatively high [14]. - The report provides week - on - week and year - on - year data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, energy, and metals, including the average wholesale price of pork, vegetable prices, and crude oil prices [17][18]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - The document shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators through multiple charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [22]. Key High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents US and European high - frequency indicators through charts, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, and the data sources are mainly Wind, Bloomberg, and BOC Securities [77][80][81]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [90]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen through charts, and the data source is Wind [141][143].

Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) has seen a 0.03% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, with the latest price at 106.19 yuan. Over the past year, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.18% [1] - The trading volume for the company bond ETF was 0.48% with a transaction value of 1.05 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume over the past month was 22.76 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 21.876 billion yuan, setting a new record since its inception [1] Group 2 - Institutions indicate that social financing (社融) may see a year-on-year increase in June, with expected new loans around 2 trillion yuan and a social financing increment of 3.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 8.8% [4] - The secondary market for government bonds showed varied trading activities, with large banks buying 10.1 billion yuan, while city commercial banks sold 33.1 billion yuan. Overall, bond funds have accumulated a net purchase of approximately 170 billion yuan in bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more since the beginning of the year [4] - The company bond ETF (511030) is the only credit bond ETF in the market with a scale exceeding 20 billion yuan, qualifying for both the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation's pledge library and the Shanghai Stock Exchange's margin trading [4][7]

前言 当前，美国正处于高利率与通胀缓慢回落的微妙阶段。 经济数据表现混乱，再加上川普不断制造不确定性，使得整体经济走势并不稳健。 本篇内容将围绕"美国通胀与美联储降息"两个核心话题，做一次简要梳理与分析。 美国通胀与美联储降息 目前美国通胀整体呈现 持续下行 趋势，但经济数据表现不一，呈现一定程度的"混乱"状态。一 方面，如密歇根大学的消费者调研显示情绪较为乐观；另一方面，零售数据却低于预期，反映出 消费端的疲软。 这种背景下，美国经济处于一个"没完全变好，也没一致变坏"的状态，而美联储也因此表现出" 不急于行动 "的态度。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE | 200-225 | 225-250 | 250-275 275-300 | | 300-325 325-350 | | 350-375 | 375-400 | 400 ...

(一)思辨之一：如何理解美元指数长期趋势与美国经济占比反向 1、现象：美国经济占比下，但美元指数上 后金融危机时代，美国经济占比与美元指数出现长周期的背离——美国经济占比持续回落，但美元指数 上行。2008年金融危机之前，美元指数的大型起伏波折与美国经济占比正相关。但金融危机以来，美国 经济占比持续走低，美元指数却开启震荡上行周期，震荡中枢约为103-104，对应美元指数历史同水平 时期美国经济占比达27%-28%。 2、原因：流动性大宽松+欧日并不强 智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研究报告称，基于美元指数两个背离(长期与经济占比"脱钩"，短期 与十债利率反向)的思辨，需要重新审视并修正"美元将开启持续单边下跌向 70-80年代看齐"的叙事。实 际上，中期视角而言，考虑到美国相对欧日经济增速差或仍然占优、当下全球养老资管机构因美元波动 率上行补美元空仓的交易或已比较极致，美元下跌最快的时候或已过去，未来半年到一年或难言美元持 续下行，反而可能需要警惕因仓位演绎较为充分带来的美元反弹风险。 美元还会继续弱吗？——基于两个背离下的美元叙事修正 近期市场各种关于美元的宏大叙事(比如"去美元化")大行其道，但宏大叙 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - US retail data cooled in May, with the year-on-year increase in commodity retail data dropping from 5.0% in the previous month to 2.6%. The Fed's stance against inflation in the June meeting remained firm. The dot plot maintained the median forecast of two 25BP rate cuts this year, but the number of committee members inclined to two or more rate cuts decreased [2]. - The Middle East conflict reached a critical point. On June 21, the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's reaction could be the key to the short - term trends of the global energy and precious metals markets [2]. - The producer price index rebounded month - on - month. From June 16 to 21, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.17% month - on - month and 17.78% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index rose by 7.21% month - on - month and decreased by 0.69% year - on - year. In the week of June 13, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.50% month - on - month and 5.62% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices rose by 10.07% and 9.35% respectively on average month - on - month. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the production material price index rose by 0.10% month - on - month and decreased by 9.83% year - on - year [2]. - From June 1 - 20, the average daily commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 244,000 square meters, compared with about 264,000 square meters per day in the same period in 2024 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Includes data on US commodity retail and import year - on - year growth rates, Fed rate forecast dot plots, gold and crude oil spot prices, and high - frequency data weekly month - on - month changes [11][16][18]. - For high - frequency data weekly month - on - month changes, various indicators such as pork average wholesale price, edible agricultural product price index, and production material price index are presented with their current and previous values [18]. - High - frequency data panorama shows the year - on - year data of various indicators related to important macro - indicators, including LME copper spot settlement price, crude steel daily output, and PPI [19]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macro - Indicator Trend Comparison - Compares the year - on - year changes of various price indices (such as commodity price index, rebar price index) with PPI industrial year - on - year, as well as copper spot price year - on - year with industrial added value year - on - year (+PPI year - on - year) [24][29]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Covers US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, and Chicago Fed financial conditions index [85][87]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Analyzes the seasonal trends (month - on - month increases) of indicators such as crude steel (decadal) daily output, production material price index, and China's commodity price index [97][104]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [155][156].

天风证券研报表示，6月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。总体来看，特朗普政府政策不 确定性之下，美联储将保持谨慎，耐心等待更明确的降息信号。美联储主席鲍威尔的表态相对偏鹰。关 于就业，鲍威尔指出就业增长确实有所下降，但失业率仍在较低水平，劳动力供需都在同步下降。关于 通胀，鲍威尔表示"我们预计未来几个月将出现显著的通胀"，并指出关税对商品价格的影响是需要传导 时间的。下次降息的门槛仍然较高。我们认为9月降息落地仍有一定难度，下一次降息或许需要等待更 长时间（或在今年四季度）。通胀风险仍偏高，而失业率上行较慢，美联储或宁愿等待更长时间，而不 是先发制人犯下错误。3、总言之，9月美联储降息落地需要满足的条件，要么通胀在暑期继续下行、要 么失业率快速上升，目前看来都有一定难度。美联储或维持观望更长时间，叠加财政和关税政策的不确 定性，下半年美债仍有上行风险。 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、外部扰动恶化概率不大，国内仍聚焦科技 2、美国数招并用撑美债，极端唱衰下的可能机会 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 今天市场的波动性仍在加大，国内三大指数基本都收跌，这主要是海外消息不断施压的结果。从全球市 场来看，并非只有中国市场在下跌。欧洲市场、美国期货市场以及东亚市场也都承受了较大冲击。 目前比较令人担心的是以色列和伊朗冲突的扩大化。最近两天，美国不断释放消息，甚至采取极限施压 手段，对伊朗开出了打击时间表。据美国媒体报道，美国可能在本周末就采取行动。如果美国真的介 入，金融市场，尤其是较为敏感的股票市场，可能会率先做出反应，先跌为敬。但到目前为止，该事件 持续恶化并对金融市场造成重创的概率其实并不大。 我们来看两个细节。首先，美国内部对这件事存在分歧。特别是之前支持特朗普上台的美国共和党关键 人物以及普通选民，他们认为特朗普的主要精力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that May's inflation and export data are weak, leading to a continued loose state of interbank liquidity and a slight decline in government bond yields [1] - The U.S. inflation weakening and cooling employment have expanded expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, resulting in a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.64%, with a change of -1.1 basis points from the previous week [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing probability of global economic recession risks due to uncertainties in the global macro environment and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Domestic monetary policy easing is less than expected, leading to risks of rising funding prices, while the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies is also below expectations, resulting in declining financing demand [1] - The intensification of overseas geopolitical conflicts contributes to a complex and severe global political situation, with ongoing deterioration and expansion of geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) employs an optimized sampling replication strategy to closely track the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year Treasury Index, selecting highly liquid government bonds to construct its portfolio [1] - The current average duration of the portfolio is 7.6 years, and it publishes a daily PCF list, ensuring transparency in holdings, making it suitable for medium to long-term investors seeking stable returns [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the current administration, particularly in relation to trade negotiations and internal political dynamics [1][3][21] - The term "TACO" is introduced, symbolizing the administration's tendency to backtrack on strong positions, particularly in trade matters [1][5][9] - The administration's approach to immigration enforcement is causing discontent among its base, potentially jeopardizing support from key demographics [3][4][6] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations with Japan have highlighted internal conflicts among U.S. representatives, leading to ineffective discussions and a lack of coherent strategy [10][12][14] - The article suggests that the administration's internal strife and lack of clear direction may hinder its ability to secure favorable trade agreements [14][23] - The potential for leveraging U.S. debt as a financial tool in trade negotiations is mentioned, indicating a complex interplay of economic strategies [8][24] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the administration's fluctuating stance on trade and its implications for global economic relations [20][22][24] - It notes that the administration's focus on internal conflicts may detract from addressing external competitive pressures [21][22] - The conclusion suggests that the ongoing trade war could present opportunities for other economies to strengthen their positions [24][26]