穆迪美国信用降级敲响警钟，美国面临要么减税缩水，要么加重关税的两难局面。 据追风交易台消息，美国银行在最新的报告中表示，市场对美债的担忧已持续一段时间，穆迪的此次降 级的时机也并非巧合，意在提醒美国政府关税收入将无法完全抵消拟减税成本。 尽管如此，但美银表示，美国或可能执意而行： 从我们的观点看，更可能的情况是我们仍将获得一个扩张性的税收方案，长期美债收益率应 该会继续反映对财政前景的担忧。 风险在于：当华盛顿认真对待美国财政问题时，关税可能是唯一能有效减少赤字的手段，而 另一轮大规模关税上调可能比不那么扩张的财政方案对经济造成更大伤害。 但除非出现突然变动，否则风险在于：当华盛顿认真对待美国财政问题时，关税可能是唯一 能有效减少赤字的手段。另一轮大规模关税上调可能比不那么扩张的财政方案对经济造成更 大伤害。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 近期，许多客户询问债券市场是否即将到达投资者对债务可持续性担忧爆发的临界点。穆迪 在周五晚间将美国评级从 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's new tariff plan aims to address the chaos in the trade system caused by his previous tariff policies, as he is forced to act due to economic pressures and the inability to reach new trade agreements with all countries [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Pressures - The U.S. government is under significant pressure due to high-interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve, which is affecting the U.S. debt situation, particularly with trillions of dollars in debt maturing in June [3]. - Trump's primary goal is to lower U.S. inflation to compel the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, thereby reducing the cost of new debt [3][5]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inflation - The U.S. lacks necessary supply chains to provide sufficient goods, leading to rising prices and indirectly increasing inflation [5]. - High labor costs in the U.S. compared to manufacturing powerhouses contribute to elevated product prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures [5]. Group 3: China’s Role - China has played a pivotal role in the trade dynamics, preparing for a prolonged trade conflict and implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [7]. - The unexpected resilience of China in the trade war has forced Trump to reconsider his approach, leading to a situation where he is now compelled to negotiate [7][9]. Group 4: Global Reactions - Following the U.S.-China joint statement, other countries like India and several EU nations have expressed intentions to retaliate against U.S. tariffs, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [9][11]. - India's proposal for retaliatory tariffs and the EU's demands for better trade terms highlight the growing discontent with U.S. trade policies [11][13]. Group 5: Urgency for Resolution - The increasing demands from other countries for better trade terms create a challenging negotiation environment for the Trump administration, necessitating a swift resolution to tariff issues [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives individual commodity trend intensities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgment. For example, the trend intensity of gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish view; copper has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][9][13]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Each commodity has its own market situation and price trend. Generally, factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - news, and cost changes affect commodity prices. For example, the cost curve of lithium carbonate is moving down, and its trend may remain weak; copper lacks driving forces and its price is in a volatile state [2][11][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: It broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 1.65%, and the overnight decline was - 0.38% [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It oscillated and declined, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of silver futures and spot also fluctuated. For instance, the daily increase of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 1.13%, and the overnight decline was - 0.15% [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: It lacked driving forces and the price was in a volatile state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international copper futures and spot changed, and there were also news about copper mines' production and cooperation [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of aluminum futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55 compared with the previous day [14][16]. - **Alumina**: It rebounded significantly, with a trend intensity of 0. The trading volume and price of alumina futures increased, and there were changes in export data [14][16]. - **Zinc**: There was a surplus in the long - term, and the price was under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [17][18]. - **Lead**: There was a weak supply - demand situation, and it was in an oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of lead futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [20][21]. - **Tin**: It was in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in nickel ore provided a bottom - support, and the conversion economy might limit the upside valuation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [27][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space was clear, but there was a lack of substantial driving forces for upward movement, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot changed [27][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continued to move down, and the trend might remain weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand declined, and the market also maintained a downward trend, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The raw materials continued to decline, and they were in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [39][41]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: They were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [42][44]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: With the decline of hot metal, they were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [46][47][50]. - **Steam Coal**: The coal - mine inventory increased, and it was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [51][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: It was in a single - sided oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][56][59]. - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of PTA futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [56][59][60]. - **MEG**: It was still strong on a single - sided basis, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of MEG futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][59][61]. - **Rubber**: It was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of rubber futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [2][63][65]. Agricultural Products - The report also briefly mentions some agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis. For example, palm oil is under pressure and looking for support at the bottom, and soybean oil has increased short - term risks due to the fluctuation of US biodiesel policy [4].

2025年05月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | 黄金：下破支撑位 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 6 | | 锌：远端过剩，价格承压 | 8 | | 铅：供需双弱，震荡运行 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 所 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 19 日 | 业 | | --- | | 服 | | 务 | | 研 | | 究 | | 所 | | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 黄金：下破支撑位 白银：震荡回落 | | | 昨 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, marking the third downgrade since 2011 and 2023, with the latest downgrade by Moody's to Aa1 from AAA [5][12]. - Credit ratings are evaluations of a debtor's ability to fulfill debt obligations, similar to a credit score for individuals [7][8]. - The downgrade reflects deep-seated issues in the US economy, particularly the high cost of debt driven by increasing fiscal deficits and insufficient revenue growth [12][14]. Group 2 - The total US debt is projected to reach $36.7 trillion by May 2025, with a significant portion maturing in June and September, leading to high repayment obligations [13]. - The high interest rates on US debt, particularly a 4.48% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, contribute to the unsustainable nature of US debt management [14]. - Historical patterns indicate that each downgrade of the US credit rating has led to market corrections, with notable declines in the Nasdaq following previous downgrades [15][18][21]. Group 3 - The article references Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, who has recently shifted his investment strategy to short positions against major tech stocks and Chinese companies [23][27]. - Burry's actions reflect a broader trend where institutional investors have exited the market, leaving retail investors vulnerable to potential downturns [30][34]. - The current market dynamics suggest a potential top formation, with expectations of a significant correction in the near future [36][37].

据央视新闻，美国白宫当地时间5月16日批评国际信用评级机构穆迪当天下调美国主权信用评级的决 定，称其为"政治决定"。 另据智通财经消息，美国财政部5月16日公布的数据显示，2025年3月，美债前三大海外债主中，日本、 英国增持美国国债，中国减持。中国由美国第二大债主变为第三大债主，英国变为第二大债主。 加密货币跳水 当地时间周五（5月16日），美股盘后，穆迪将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，原因是美国政府债 务和利率支付比例增加。此前，惠誉和标普全球已将美国评级调至Aaa以下，穆迪的最新决定意味着， 美国这个全球最大经济体已被国际三大信用评级机构全部降级。 受上述消息影响，追踪标普500指数的ETF基金在盘后交易中下跌1%，纳斯达克100ETF-Invesco(QQQ) 跌1.3%。美国10年期国债收益率短线从4.44%拉升至4.48%上方；两年期美债收益率涨4.5个基点，刷新 日高至4.0037%。加密货币等投机性较强的风险资产也出现跳水，以太坊从2600美元跌至2500美元以 下，比特币也一度从10.4万美元跌至10.26万美元，艾达币、BNB、XRP等纷纷跟跌。 | 而种 | 价格 | 价格(24 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has decreased by 4 basis points to a one-week low of 4.39%, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets amid trade policy uncertainties [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.39%, marking a one-week low [1] - The decline of 4 basis points suggests a cautious market response to economic conditions [1] Group 2: Trade Policy - Former President Trump announced plans to set tariff rates for U.S. trade partners within the next two to three weeks [1] - Trump indicated that his administration is unable to negotiate agreements with all trade partners simultaneously [1]

分析师：CPI公布后美债窄幅震荡 交易员仍押注美联储9月降息 金十数据5月13日讯，分析师迈克尔·麦肯齐表示，美国国债收益率全线下跌约4个基点，CPI数据公布 后，2年期美债收益率维持在4%下方，10年期美债收益率位于4.45%以内。数据公布后市场维持窄幅波 动，因为交易员仍预期美联储将于9月启动降息——届时关税政策对通胀及经济的影响将更为明朗。 ...

Group 1 - The increasing attention on U.S. Treasury bonds is noted [1] Group 2 - A free course is offered to explain investment in U.S. dollar bond funds, covering various aspects such as investment methods, current value, and associated risks [2]

新华社报道，日本首相石破茂对于美国近期对关键汽车零部件征收25%关税的举措表达了深切的遗憾，并将继续 要求美国重新审视相关关税措施。汽车零部件是日本对美出口的重要品类之一，会给日企造成打击。此举意在促 使制造业企业将生产基地从海外迁回美国本土，但可能会导致供应链混乱及制造成本上升。对于美国对汽车及其 他商品加征关税的举措，日本首相石破茂明确表示"无法接受"。 石破茂（资料图） 日本的另外一张底牌就是——团结中国，这样不仅可以抵御美国带来的压力，甚至更有可能形势逆转，成功反 击。中日韩和东盟还在意大利米兰举行了（10+3）财长和央行行长会议，而这场会议就着重强调了要警惕特朗普 政府的关税政策。中国是汽车制造销售大国，日本车企或许依然不好在中国市场扩张，但是扩大和中国的贸易往 来，除了增大汽车出口之外，也可以让其他产品出口增大，可以在一定程度上减少对美汽车出口受创的损失。向 中国靠拢之后，日本就可以抓住RCEP的机遇。 中方发言人近日表示，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判，同时美方近期通过相 关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方进行谈判，对此中方正在进行评估。发言人表示，美方想谈就应 ...