Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, currently reported around $3,295 per ounce, with significant attention on upcoming U.S. PMI data that could lead to notable market volatility [1] - Gold prices have seen a four-day consecutive rise, reaching a two-week high of $3,350 per ounce, but the upward momentum is slowing down due to market digestion of previous positive news and upcoming economic data releases [1] - Factors supporting gold prices include rising geopolitical risks, deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions, and a weakening dollar, with Moody's downgrading the U.S. sovereign credit rating and warning of potential increases in U.S. debt by $3 to $5 trillion [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have recently rebounded to a one-week high, but there is a need to be cautious of short-term correction risks, with a high point of $3,345 noted for the day [3] - The 5-day moving average shows a slight golden cross, while MACD indicates a dead cross with an upward turn, suggesting a mixed technical outlook for gold prices [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold around the current price of $3,290, with a stop loss at $3,298 and a target range of $3,275 to $3,255, indicating a bearish sentiment for the evening [3]

相关链接 期货热点追踪 铜价在美元走弱和美国债务问题的背景下小幅上涨，分析师表示，如果宏观经济短期内没有出现重大的 负面意外，铜价的目标是…… ...

Core Viewpoint - Major investment firms are shifting their focus towards emerging market stocks, anticipating a favorable turn in market conditions for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Firms' Perspectives - Morgan Stanley, AQR Capital Management, Bank of America, and Franklin Templeton are betting on emerging markets as the next investment opportunity [1]. - Bank of America's Michael Hartnett describes emerging markets as the "next bull market" [3]. - AQR predicts that emerging market stocks will yield an annual return of nearly 6% in local currency over the next 5 to 10 years, surpassing the 4% expected return from U.S. stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The S&P 500 index has remained flat year-to-date, while emerging market indices have risen by 10%, suggesting a potential end to a 15-year period of underperformance for these markets [3]. - Over the past 15 years, U.S. stocks have surged over 400%, while emerging market stocks have only increased by 7% [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Investment Shifts - Factors such as trade wars, the dollar's challenges, S&P volatility, and doubts about U.S. Treasury bonds' safe-haven status are prompting investors to look beyond the U.S. [3]. - Moody's recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over rising debt and deficits, adding pressure to U.S. equities [3]. - Franklin Templeton's Christy Tan warns of dollar depreciation risks and suggests that the "American exceptionalism" narrative may be temporarily over, viewing emerging market bonds as alternatives to U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Morgan Stanley's Jitania Kandhari is focusing on stocks in banking, electrification, healthcare, and defense sectors within emerging markets [4]. - AQR's Chris Doheny is targeting smaller market capitalization companies in emerging markets that are expected to perform well in the medium to long term [4]. Group 5: Capital Flows and Economic Conditions - As of the week ending May 9, inflows into U.S.-listed emerging market and specific country ETFs reached $1.84 billion, more than double the previous week [4]. - Despite the positive outlook, inherent characteristics of emerging markets, such as political instability and local crises, may hinder this year's growth [4]. - Franklin Templeton's Tan highlights that major emerging markets have strong fundamentals, low external debt, and favorable debt-to-GDP ratios, making them attractive [4].

美元持续走弱，黄金多空震荡加剧！美盘资金如何抉择，短线如何做好布局？立即观看超V推荐官Jason 的讲解，直播间可领取超V美盘短线分析>>> 相关链接 ...

对于欧洲而言，马雷克·贝尔卡认为，欧洲面临着几方面的长期挑战。主要是由于生产力低下以及GDP 增长疲弱，这一点在欧洲显而易见。欧洲已经进入老龄社会，中国也进入老龄社会，但欧洲老龄社会进 程已持续很长一段时间，与任何其他世界的地区进行对比，欧洲增长会比较慢。眼前欧洲最大的挑战是 不平衡、不稳定。我们已进入不稳定的世界，欧洲目前在不稳定的国际经济之下会显得更加脆弱。如果 中美打"关税战"，欧洲既不是赢家也不是输家，会变成两国相交的直接战场，对欧洲来讲没有任何好 处。欧洲一直希望可以进入和平合作的时代，但现在正面临着变革。 "我们在全球范围内看到非常危险的关税游戏正在进行中。"马雷克·贝尔卡提到，"短期来看，美国关税 的错误实施带来了几方面结果。首先是其不确定性，不仅是对于全球经济，而且对于美国经济带来了直 接的不确定性。" 马雷克·贝尔卡还提到，使美元走弱是美国的单边政策。同时，作为全球储备货币，美国在某种程度 上，又不希望美元走弱。当前可以看到资本开始流出美国美元市场，即美元已经走弱了，美元作为全球 货币以及全球储备货币位置也会逐步地走弱。美国新政府做法的危机在于其国内非常深入和深刻的社会 问题。作为科技和经济 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar has declined alongside US Treasury yields due to weak economic data, reinforcing market expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The majority of fluctuations in the forex market this week were driven by the USD/KRW exchange rate, with the dollar trading at 1394.70 KRW after a significant drop over two days [1] - Market speculation suggests that President Trump may favor a weaker dollar to pressure other governments during trade negotiations, which could benefit Asian exporters [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that policymakers need to reconsider the roles of employment and inflation in the current monetary policy framework, suggesting that inflation risks may raise the threshold for rate cuts [4] - Despite expectations for three rate cuts this year, if inflation rises, the number of cuts may be reduced [4] - The euro rose by 0.1% to 1.1197 USD, while the pound stabilized at 1.3309 USD, with the dollar index down 0.1% to 100.70, but still on track for a slight weekly gain of 0.3% [5]

金十数据5月16日讯，瑞讯银行分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya表示，鉴于全球投资组合高度集中于美国公 司，投资者可能需要加大对美元走软风险的对冲力度。这可能会在中期内进一步压低美元估值。过去， 投资者并不急于对冲美元贬值的风险，因为在市场波动加剧时，美元通常会因避险资金流入而走强。但 最近的情况有所不同：尽管市场波动上升，美元却持续走弱。而这种波动性上升本身又提高了对冲成 本，导致美元与波动性之间出现异常的负相关关系。这种情况正给投资者带来严重的困扰。 瑞讯银行：美元走弱与波动性上升同步，成为投资者痛点 ...

柏瑞投资就应对当前市场不确定性发布最新观点，并提供跨资产配置的见解。尽管特朗普公开施压要求 减息，美联储仍维持按兵不动策略。预计2026年美国经济将放缓，通胀一次性飙升后价格水平将趋于稳 定，届时美联储立场有望转向宽松。因此，预计美联储将在未来12个月内减息三次，政策利率降至 3.75%，同时美国10年期国债收益率预计为4.00%。 美元资产吸引力持续减弱，美元走弱和美国优越论光环褪色，促使资金转向全球多元化配置，而欧元将 受惠于欧洲各种更利好的政策，以及德国自2026年起增长潜力提升。因此，将欧元兑美元汇率预测由 1.0750上调至1.1500，同时将美元兑日元预测由150.00下调至140.00，以反映美元整体走弱趋势。 由于当前市场环境存在不确定性，对风险资产保持中性，并偏好具长期结构性优势的领域。个别欧洲及 新兴市场债券以及价格错配的工业股，均具长期投资潜力。尤其新兴市场银行业整体抗风险能力较强， 虽然减息会削弱银行的盈利能力，但当地经济前景，足以支撑贷款质素与流动性。此外，近期的市场波 动显示，亚洲美元债券或可成为欧美固定收益的替代选择，尤其在熊市时期。 由于经济关系恶化和地缘风险上升，黄金继续成为 ...

高盛上调美国通胀预期 金十数据5月8日讯，高盛经济学家预计美国核心PCE通胀到2025年底增长3.8%（此前预测为3.5%）， 2026年底2.7%（此前预测2.3%）。与这些预测相比，最新公布的核心PCE数据仅为2.6%。高盛表示， 美元因关税消息而走弱，这种走弱放大了关税对价格的直接影响，而非抵消这种影响。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade and financial markets, leading to a significant appreciation of Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar and a shift in investment strategies away from dollar assets [1][3]. - Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar and New Taiwan dollar, have seen substantial gains, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening multiple times to maintain its currency peg, and the New Taiwan dollar experiencing a notable rise of over 10% against the dollar in just two trading days [2][3]. - There is a growing trend of foreign investors reducing their exposure to U.S. assets, with a reported decline of over 10% in the U.S. dollar index this year, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the dollar [3][4]. Group 2 - The article discusses the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, as U.S. tariff policies create uncertainty and diminish the dollar's safe-haven status, prompting capital outflows from the dollar [4]. - Notable investors, including Warren Buffett, have expressed concerns about the future value of the dollar, warning of potential risks associated with U.S. fiscal policies that could lead to a depreciation of currency assets [4].