1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation where "fixed income +" funds may sell bonds to replenish liquidity due to the adjustment in the equity market is not expected to last. As the expectation of interest rate cuts rises and the year - end allocation market arrives, especially if the equity market continues to fluctuate and adjust, bond yields may experience a new round of downward trends. The report maintains the judgment that the taxable yield of 10 - year treasury bonds will decline to 1.70% - 1.75% [1][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Down, Bonds Follow the Decline? - The stock - bond seesaw effect is well - known to bond market investors. Normally, when the equity market declines significantly, bond yields will decline smoothly. However, since November this year, the Shanghai Composite Index has significantly declined, but the price of 10 - year treasury bonds has oscillated overall and even declined. For example, on November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.5%, but the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased [6][11]. - When the equity market adjusts, "fixed income +" funds may face large net - value drawdowns. High - volatility "fixed income +" funds have a higher proportion of equity, and their performance mainly comes from equity assets. When the equity market declines, they are more likely to face redemption pressure and may sell some bond assets. Low - volatility "fixed income +" funds have a lower proportion of equity and are more resistant to decline, but they may also sell some bond assets to prevent redemption pressure [7][11]. 3.2 "Fixed Income +" Funds May Sell Bonds to Replenish Liquidity - Recently, the yields of "fixed income +" funds have been generally poor, and the yields of interest - rate bonds have oscillated slightly upward. The weak equity market has not directly led to a bond bull market. The overall average daily return of "fixed income +" funds has turned negative, with a single - day return of - 1.4% on November 21. The higher the equity position in "fixed income +" funds, the more obvious the decline in the daily return in the recent week, and the more obvious the drawdown [7][15]. - When "fixed income +" funds face redemption pressure, fund managers may prefer to sell liquid bonds rather than reduce equity positions. This "sell bonds to protect stocks" strategy meets the liquidity needs of redemptions and avoids passive reduction of equity at a low point in the equity market. As a result, the bond market has been dull under selling pressure, and the net - value growth of "fixed income +" funds has been pressured by the weakness of the equity part [7][15]. - Although the cash reserves of "fixed income +" funds (current deposit ratio of about 1.3% - 1.6%) are generally higher than those of non - "fixed income +" funds (about 0.7% - 0.8%), during significant market fluctuations, the peak of single - day net redemptions may exceed the cash reserve level. Therefore, when facing strong liquidity pressure, "fixed income +" funds may still have to sell liquid bonds [7][26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets is primarily attributed to the bond market absorbing some of the redemption pressure and deleveraging demands caused by the stock market's pullback, with speculative funds in TL contracts further amplifying this volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market's motivation to go long has not increased due to the stock market's pullback, as the current environment is characterized by low odds and ongoing concerns about potential new fund fee regulations [1]. - The stock market's decline may have triggered a chain reaction among multi-asset funds, leading the bond market to bear some selling pressure and deleveraging demands, evidenced by low divergence indices among brokers and funds [1]. - TL contracts have a high proportion of speculative funds, which tend to engage in short-term trading rather than long-term allocation, making them more susceptible to market sentiment and cyclical trading behaviors [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that the phenomenon of "simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds" with "greater declines in futures than in cash bonds" has occurred previously, specifically in late October 2023 and mid-March 2024, typically lasting no more than 10 days before a synchronized recovery in both markets [2].

利率 | 股跌了，债为什么不涨？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.23 核心观点 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 月 末 资 金 的 规 律 ？ 》 2025-11-22 2. 《高频｜杭州新房销售回暖，开工率大多 下行 》 2025-11-22 3. 《固收 + ，加什么？ — — 资产篇》 2025-11-19 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 ❖ 今年三季度股债跷跷板效应十分显著，但近期股市下跌时债市依旧较弱，为 什么？从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确是主要原 因；从机构行为角度，一方面是保险赎回固收+产品，另一方面是券商和农商 砸盘。展望未来，货币政策的基调是动态的，我们认为明年初降准降息的可 能性较高，而且从历史出发，无论是 12 月还是中央经济工作会议的日历效应 都很清晰，未来 1-3 周利率行情可能正式开启，建议把握做多机会。 ❖ 股市下跌主因：一是外围因素，隔夜美股大跌，再度引发全球市场对 AI 泡沫 的担忧 ...

Core Insights - The transition from "stocks rise, bonds fall" to "stocks fall, bonds do not rise" reflects the disparity in asset trends, indicating a lack of strong bullish drivers in the bond market while the equity market focuses on restoring investor confidence [1][3][11] - The bond market has seen a rebound from low levels, but the momentum for further increases is weak due to limited expectations for monetary policy easing and a generally low investor sentiment after a year of significant volatility [1][3][14] - The equity market, despite the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, lacks strong trading logic to support its rise, leading to pressure from high absolute index levels and recent volatility in overseas markets [1][3][14] Understanding U.S. Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between employment and inflation, with mixed signals from the labor market suggesting that a significant recession is not imminent, which may not justify a rate cut in December [2][15][16] - The absence of key labor data due to government shutdowns means the Fed may adopt a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals before making decisions on rate cuts [2][18][22] - The fluctuation in rate cut expectations has impacted global asset pricing, with the potential for volatility in the rate cut timeline, although the overall direction towards easing remains unchanged [2][22] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market currently lacks a clear bullish trading narrative, making it susceptible to profit-taking after minor gains, with the potential for a breakout dependent on consistent bullish signals from policy or market trends [3][26] - Investor sentiment in the equity market is low due to ongoing declines, emphasizing the need to restore confidence to avoid a downward spiral in market perceptions [3][26]

银河证券研报称，看好2026年中国股票市场的投资机会：其一，逆周期政策力度维持，物价低位回升和 名义GDP中枢上移，企业盈利和居民信心同步修复，内部条件好转；其二，美国政策重心内移，中美迎 来一年宝贵的缓和期，且货币政策整体保持宽松态势，外部环境改善；其三，资本市场作为新旧动能转 换的重要枢纽，在"乘势而上"（支持科技和高质量发展）和"因势利导"（提振信心和财富效应）方面都 具有重要意义，中长期资金入市和股市上涨之间形成正循环，进而带动居民存款搬家。其四，银河证券 的"银河指南针"显示，在房价逐步触底、汇率稳步升值的情形下，投资中国股票市场有望获得超额回 报。虽然"宽信用"在2026年较难实现，但股债跷跷板效应或对无风险收益率造成持续扰动，预计10年期 国债收益率保持在1.6%~1.95%之间，走势整体前高后低。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant recovery in the public fund issuance market since 2025, with a total of 1,378 funds issued, surpassing last year's 1,143 and marking a three-year high [1][2] - The average subscription period for newly issued funds has decreased to 16.31 days from 22.63 days last year, indicating a faster fundraising process [1] - Equity funds have emerged as the dominant category, with 999 equity funds issued this year, accounting for 72.50% of the total [1][2] Group 2 - A notable "stock-bond seesaw effect" has been observed, with 762 stock funds issued this year, representing 55.30% of the total, while bond funds have decreased to 250, down from 330 last year [2] - The rise of index-based investments is significant, with 813 index funds issued, making up 59% of the total, and 96.59% of stock funds being index funds [2] - In the QDII fund sector, index funds dominate, with 15 out of 18 new QDII funds being index-based, a remarkable 83.33% [2] Group 3 - Multiple factors are driving the recovery in fund issuance, including a positive trend in the A-share market and improved corporate earnings due to economic recovery and policy implementation [3] - Central banks' accommodative monetary policies have maintained ample market liquidity, attracting international capital into the Chinese market [3] - Increased investor confidence, particularly among younger investors who are more open to new investment vehicles, is contributing to the growth of the public fund industry [3]

近期，债市呈箱体震荡走势，10年期国债收益率围绕1.8%小幅波动。短期来看，利空因素在于股市放 量上涨，风险偏好回升，对债市形成明显压制；利多因素在于宽松的资金面和刚刚公布的10月金融数据 偏弱。在风险偏好回暖与资金面宽松预期拉锯下，市场缺乏主线，短期震荡格局明显。 从国内经济基本面来看，10月CPI和PPI温和回升，但居民消费延续回落态势。与此同时，10月金融数据 转弱，一方面10月信贷季节性回落，另一方面财政对实体支持力度阶段性回落。"弱现实"仍在延续，对 债市形成支撑。 从潜在利空因素来看，一是部分经济数据表现具备韧性，降低了年末加码宽松的紧迫性。二是风险偏好 变化，国内权益市场走势偏强，通过股债"跷跷板"效应压制债市情绪。三是近期美元和美债收益率集体 上涨，在一定程度上限制了国内利率下行的空间。 从政策层面来看，市场对四季度降准降息的预期升温。央行在三季度货币政策报告中重提"跨周期调 节"，预示政策视角更重长期。财政政策方面，5000亿元地方债务结存限额下达，后续基建投资可能形 成脉冲。宽松预期是当前债市核心支撑。另外，近期资金面仍偏宽松，短端利率保持低位，这也给债市 提供了支撑。 从海外市场环境来看 ...

Group 1 - The public fund issuance market has experienced a significant recovery, with a total of 1,378 public funds issued by November 17, surpassing last year's total of 1,143 funds, marking the highest issuance in three years [1] - The average subscription period for new funds has decreased from 22.63 days last year to 16.31 days this year, indicating a faster fundraising cycle and increased market activity [1] - The main drivers for the recovery include positive overall performance in the A-share market, improved corporate profit expectations, ample market liquidity, and increased investor confidence [1] Group 2 - FOF (Fund of Funds) products have seen explosive growth, with 72 new FOF products issued this year, doubling from 33 last year, reflecting growing recognition of their value [2] - As the equity market rebounds, there has been a significant increase in the issuance of equity funds, while bond fund issuance has declined, demonstrating a typical "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds [2] Group 3 - A total of 19 public REITs and 18 QDII funds have been issued this year, with index funds emerging as a major highlight in the issuance market, comprising 813 of the 1,378 new funds, nearly 60% [3] - Index investment has penetrated various fund categories, with over 90% of stock funds being index products and nearly 25% of bond funds being index bond funds, indicating a trend towards lower-cost, clearer-style products [3] - The industry remains highly concentrated, with 131 public institutions issuing new funds, and 22 institutions issuing 20 or more funds, led by Fortune Fund with 60 new funds [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, dominated by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The weak financial and macro data in October confirmed the economic downward expectation in Q4, but the market reaction was flat, and the bond market sentiment was mainly driven by the stock market, being more sensitive to stock market rises. The stock market first adjusted, then rose and fell back, and declined overall last week, leading to bond market fluctuations with only a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields rose slightly as the tax period approached, and the yield curve continued to flatten [3]. - This week (the week of November 17), the bond market will continue the oscillating pattern. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the short term has cooled, and the expectation of an interest rate cut is still weak. With the macro data in a vacuum period, the bond market will continue to oscillate, and stock market fluctuations will continue to dominate market sentiment. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may be implemented soon, but since the market has priced them fully, they may cause market fluctuations in the short term but with limited amplitude. Overall, with multiple factors such as weak fundamentals, low expectation of loose policies, the central bank's care for the capital market, the stock market entering an oscillating rest period, and the unimplemented new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the bond market is unlikely to break the deadlock and will probably continue the narrow - range oscillating pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, with long - term bond yields slightly declining. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.06% in the whole week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.02bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.59bp, with the term spread continuing to narrow [4]. - On November 10, affected by the warming of October inflation data, the bond market was weakly oscillating in the morning, but the long - term bonds recovered in the afternoon as the stock market fell, while short - term bonds were still weak due to tightened capital. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.03bp, and most of the Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.01% [4]. - On November 11, the bond market was generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.20bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 12, the central bank's Q3 monetary policy report mentioned stabilizing growth again and deleted the "anti - arbitrage" statement. The market's loose expectation remained, driving the bond market to be generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreasing by 0.48bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 13, the stock market hit a new high, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The bond market generally weakened. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.55bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed down, with the 10 - year main contract falling 0.10% [4]. - On November 14, the capital tightened marginally and the stock market declined. The bond market was narrowly oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.14bp, and the closing prices of Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors were mixed, with the 10 - year main contract remaining flat [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 100 interest - rate bonds were issued, 43 more than the previous week, with a issuance volume of 7269 billion, an increase of 2129 billion compared with the previous week, and a net financing amount of 3903 billion, an increase of 1020 billion compared with the previous week. In terms of bond types, the issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds increased month - on - month; the net financing amounts of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased month - on - month, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased month - on - month [10]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. Six Treasury bonds were issued, two of which were savings Treasury bonds, and the average subscription multiple of the remaining Treasury bonds was 3.39 times. Twenty - one policy - financial bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.83 times, and 73 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 20.09 times [14]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the policies to stabilize growth drove up entrusted loans, and M1 continued to grow rapidly. In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion, 280 billion less year - on - year; new social financing scale was 815 billion, 597 billion less year - on - year. At the end of October, M2 increased 8.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month; M1 increased 6.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point lower than at the end of last month [14]. - In October, the year - on - year growth of RMB loans decreased due to weak domestic demand, declining external demand, and the continuous downward pull of implicit debt replacement on new medium - and long - term corporate loans. The year - on - year growth of social financing continued to decline, mainly affected by the significant year - on - year decrease in government bond financing and RMB loans to the real economy. Due to the higher base in the same period last year, the growth rate of M2 declined at the end of October but remained at a relatively fast level. The growth rate of M1 declined as the low - base effect weakened, but it still grew rapidly due to the increase in current deposits of urban investment platform enterprises during debt replacement and the increase in current deposits of small and medium - sized enterprises [14]. - The macro data in October continued to decline. The year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% previously; the cumulative year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the first 10 months was 6.1%, compared with 5.8% in the whole year of 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 2.9%, down from 3.0% previously; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the first 10 months was 4.3%, compared with 3.5% in the whole year of 2024. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, compared with a decline of 0.5% previously and a growth of 3.2% in the whole year of 2024 [14]. - The industrial production growth rate declined rapidly in October due to different working days compared with last year, negative export growth, weak domestic consumption and investment momentum, and the weakening of the pulling effect of policies to boost domestic demand. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to decline in October mainly because the effect of the subsidy policy for trade - in weakened, the base in the same period last year increased, and the accelerated decline of the real - estate market dragged down real - estate - related consumption. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to October was - 1.7%, with negative cumulative year - on - year values for two consecutive months, mainly due to the slowdown of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real - estate investment. Overall, affected by weak external demand, weakening domestic consumption and investment growth momentum, and the time needed for policies to stabilize growth to take effect, the macro - economic operation in October continued the weakening trend since Q3 [15]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, the high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed performance. The blast furnace operating rate and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants both declined slightly, while the daily average molten iron output increased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) also continued to increase. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased slightly. In terms of prices, the pork price declined slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including the prices of rebar, copper, and crude oil [16]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net injection of funds through open - market operations last week was 626.2 billion. The R007 and DR007 both increased; the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock commercial banks increased; the direct discount rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks of all tenors decreased slightly; the trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly; the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated and decreased slightly [26][29][32].

Regulatory Dynamics - Ten departments are deepening the application of logistics data in the financial industry to optimize financing and insurance product services, addressing the financing difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises [5] - As of the end of Q3, the total assets of insurance companies and insurance asset management companies reached 40.4 trillion yuan, a growth of 12.5% compared to the beginning of the year [6] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau will soon release a revised "Commercial Bank Merger Loan Management Measures" to support mergers and restructuring of various enterprises, including tech innovation companies [8] Company Dynamics - China Ping An increased its stake in China CRRC H-shares by 55.48 million Hong Kong dollars, raising its holding to 5.09% [17] - China Life has cumulatively purchased over 32.5 billion yuan in Xiong'an bonds and nearly 100 million in Xiong'an Group bonds, supporting the construction of the Xiong'an New Area [20] - China Life, in collaboration with Seven Wolves, established a private equity investment fund with a contribution of 1.6 billion yuan [21] Industry Dynamics - In the first three quarters, 70 life insurance companies achieved a net profit exceeding 460 billion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year [42] - The insurance asset allocation has exceeded 3 trillion yuan, enhancing the "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [46] - The average vehicle insurance premium among 67 insurance companies was 1,836.89 yuan, with the highest being 5,700 yuan and the lowest at 880 yuan [47] Product Services - Ping An Life launched the "Yuxiang Jinyue 26" series of insurance products, aiming to meet diverse customer needs with a focus on wealth stability and growth [56] - The first agricultural cultural heritage protection insurance in Beijing was issued, providing coverage of up to 306,000 yuan for the "Jingbai Pear" cultivation area [58]