Core Viewpoint - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as funds flow from the bond market to the stock market, leading to a decline in bond prices while stock indices reach new highs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 20, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high of 3766.21 points, while most government bond futures declined [1]. - From August 1 to August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3568 to 3728 points, with corresponding increases in government bond yields across various maturities [2]. - On August 18, major stock indices hit recent highs, coinciding with significant declines in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 1.33% [3]. Group 2: Government Bond Yields - The yields on 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds increased by 1.31 basis points, 8.13 basis points, and 10.196 basis points, respectively, with the 30-year yield surpassing 2% [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" rose by 0.9 basis points to 2.0375% [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance announced support operations for government bonds to enhance liquidity in the secondary market, involving 2.7 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan for specific bond types [4]. - Despite these measures, the bond market continued to face downward pressure due to strong stock market performance and heightened risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market may remain under pressure in the short term due to the strong performance of the equity market, although there is medium to long-term support for bond prices [5]. - The expectation of improving market conditions may exert upward pressure on bond yields, but the overall trend of declining interest rates is expected to persist [5].

Overall Investment Recommendations - The report provides investment strategies for various commodities and financial products, including stocks, bonds, and multiple futures contracts [1]. Stock Index Futures - The A-share market had a narrow - range oscillation on Tuesday, with the North - Securities 50 reaching a new high. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2.64 trillion yuan but remained above 2 trillion. The comprehensive and communication industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses [1]. - Stock index futures adjusted following the spot index, with a larger decline in futures than in the spot, and the basis continued to widen. Although there is some resistance to short - term upward movement as the market breaks previous highs, the capital side remains active, and the trading enthusiasm continues to rise. As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, achieving six consecutive increases. Long - term positive factors such as the transfer of household deposits and the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market showed signs of stabilization and a slight rebound, with the T - contract performing weakly. The domestic market had a net capital injection, but due to the tax period, the cost of funds continued to rise. Data was scarce, and the expectation of policy intensification remained optimistic [1]. - Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the impact of the domestic monetary policy report, the expectation is relatively cautious. The stock - bond seesaw effect is still significant, and the market's risk appetite remains optimistic. The bond market is more sensitive to negative news. Although the bond market's recent decline was rapid, new positive factors are limited, and the upward pressure may continue. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [1]. Commodity Futures Basic Metals - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations remain optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is watching the Fed's stance at the global central bank meeting. The US has expanded the scope of aluminum tariff increases, which has a limited impact on domestic exports. Alumina's over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened significantly, with continuous upward pressure on prices. For Shanghai aluminum, the short - term demand expectation is weak, but the medium - term support is clear [3]. - **Copper**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations are optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is focused on the Fed's attitude. The smelting processing fee is slowly rebounding but remains negative, and the global copper - mine supply shortage persists. Although domestic and overseas refined copper production continues to grow, and there are positive expectations for consumption, the short - term upward momentum is limited, and the price will continue to oscillate. However, in the medium - term, the upward trend is unchanged [3]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is sufficient, and port inventories are accumulating. Although Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mining, the ore price is still supported. The production capacity at the smelting end is abundant, and the trading is dull. Refined nickel production remains high, and the inventory - accumulation trend continues. As the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cools, the nickel price has low volatility, with resistance from over - supply and support from potential ore - supply issues. Selling call options is a relatively favorable strategy [3][4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led some funds to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The API weekly data showed a decline in US crude - oil inventories, but the market reaction was muted. As the peak consumption season for the crude - oil market is ending, the expectation of supply over - capacity is strengthening, and the short - term positive factors are lacking. The oil price will continue to be weak [5]. - **Methanol**: This week, the signing volume of northwest sample enterprises reached the lowest level since May, and the futures price dropped rapidly, reducing the downstream's purchasing willingness. Although there are many new maintenance devices, and the factory operating rate is low, providing support for the spot price, as the negative impact of increased arrivals is gradually released, the further decline space for futures is limited [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Recently, there have been more new maintenance devices for PE, and its operating rate is at a medium level, while PP's maintenance devices have restarted, and its operating rate has returned to a high level. Considering production and new capacity, PE's supply pressure is lower than PP's, and PE's demand is also better. It is recommended to hold a long position in the L - PP spread [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The over - supply situation is obvious, with daily production slightly decreasing to 11.07 million tons, and the far - reaching energy's second - phase device may be put into operation in September, intensifying the over - supply. It is recommended to short the 01 contract. For float glass, real - estate sales and completion are weak, and although the sales - to - production ratio in some regions has increased, without effective supply - side constraints, the fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [5]. - **Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, after the coal - mine production self - inspection, the raw - coal output is still low, and the inventory - reduction rate has slowed down. The environmental protection restrictions on steel and coking enterprises have restricted demand, and the coal price is under pressure. For coke, some coking enterprises have received production - restriction notices, and steel mills in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region also have production - reduction expectations. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the price will oscillate and decline [5]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Domestically, there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the market's expectation for the new - cotton purchase price is pessimistic. Overseas, the USDA August report adjusted the supply and demand for the 2025/2026 season, and the ending inventory decreased. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, and the downstream industry has slightly improved. The market is watching whether the downstream will continue to improve during the traditional peak season [7]. - **Rubber**: The automotive market benefits from policy support, and tire - enterprise operating rates are good. Although the ANRPC has entered the traditional production - increasing season, the new - rubber output rate is lower than expected, and the raw - material price in the production area is firm. The supply - demand structure of natural rubber is gradually improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the rubber price [7]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The anti - involution policy has no clear implementation signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The fundamentals of rebar are showing more signs of weakening. Regional and phased production restrictions have limited impact on supply, and the crude - steel reduction policy has not been implemented. Steel mills' profits are acceptable, and production is expected to resume after the military - parade production restrictions end. Real - estate data is weak across the board, and the inventory of rebar has started to accumulate rapidly. It is recommended to hold a short position in the 01 contract and pay attention to the support at around 3100 [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the fundamentals of steel products are weakening. The military - parade production restrictions in the north mainly affected sintering and rolling processes, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is likely to resume after the restrictions end. The high coil - to - rebar spread may prompt the transfer of molten iron from rebar to hot - rolled coil. Although the current demand for plates is more resilient than that for construction steel, the inventory - accumulation rate of plates has also accelerated. The downward pressure on the hot - rolled coil price is increasing, and the near - term contract is weaker than the far - term one [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The military - parade production restrictions mainly affected sintering and rolling, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is expected to resume after the restrictions end. However, the weakening of the steel fundamentals may put pressure on the iron - ore price. It is expected that the iron - ore price will follow the steel price, with the 01 - contract price ranging from 750 to 810. It is recommended to short at high prices within this range [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different financial derivatives are as follows: The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias"; for stock index options, it is "oscillating"; and for treasury bond futures, it is "oscillating with a slight downward bias" [9][10][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures. The stock index futures market has broken through a key point with active incremental funds, and the upward trend is expected to continue. In the stock index options market, it is advisable to observe the persistence of the volatility inflection point and continue to hold bull spread strategies. The treasury bond futures market is affected by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and capital tightening, and there are opportunities for curve steepening and long - end arbitrage [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and closed flat on Tuesday, with trading volume slightly narrowing to 2.64 trillion yuan. After breaking through a 10 - year high, there was a style shift from dividends to growth. The market neutral strategy has faced setbacks since last week, indicating a shift from micro - small caps to small - medium caps. With positive sentiment indicators, there is no need to overly worry about pullbacks in August. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [3][9] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying assets oscillated weakly, with only the CSI 1000 Index rising by 0.07%, while the SSE 50 ETF fell by 1.14%. Option trading volume declined by about 30%. Volatility decreased in most options. It is advisable to observe whether the morning volatility continues to decline and add short - volatility positions if it does. The bull spread strategy can be continued [4][10] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T contract rose due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and some short - sellers taking profits. However, capital tightening restricted the rise. The market risk preference and anti - involution may affect the bond market, and it is advisable to pay attention to curve steepening and long - end arbitrage opportunities [5][10][11] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On August 20, 2025, China's one - year loan prime rate (LPR) in August was announced at 3.35%, higher than the previous and predicted value of 3%. Other data such as China's July全社会 electricity consumption annual rate, the US August SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value, and Japan's July national CPI annual rate are yet to be released [13] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Pension**: On August 19, five departments issued a notice to enrich the scenarios for receiving personal pensions, adding three new scenarios and new application channels, effective September 1 [13] - **Photovoltaic**: On August 19, multiple departments held a photovoltaic industry symposium, calling for strengthening industry regulation, curbing low - price disorderly competition, standardizing product quality, and supporting industry self - regulation [14] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not elaborated in the provided content [15][19][31]

国债到期收益率是指投资者持有债券至到期日且所有本息按时兑付时获得的年化平均回报率，是衡量债 券整体收益情况的一个综合指标。由于国债发行往往有固定利率及固定的票面价格，其收益率的上升也 意味着投资者正以更低的价格买入债券，反映出国债正经历抛售。 8月以来，随着股市节节攀升，"股债跷跷板"效应持续显现，截至8月20日收盘，随着沪指再创10年新高 的3766.21点，多数国债期货再度收跌，30年期主力合约跌0.35%报116.050，10年期主力合约跌0.18%报 107.855，5年期主力合约跌0.10%报105.425，2年期主力合约持平于102.326。银行间主要利率债收益率 午后多数转为上行，其中30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行0.9BP至2.0375%。 资金从债市流向股市 7月以来，A股开启单边上涨行情，进入8月以后这一趋势也仍未减弱，随着股指攀升，"股债跷跷板"效 应持续显现。8月1日至8月18日，沪指从3568点涨到了3728点，与此同时，各期限国债收益率也震荡上 行，1年期、10年期和30年期到期收益率分别上行1.31bp、8.13bp和10.196bp，30年期更是在此期间越过 2 ...

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 监管和行业动态： 8月16日，由《21世纪经济报道》和浦发银行联合主办，浦银理财、浦银安 盛基金协办的"2025资产管理年会"在上海隆重启幕。本届年会以"破局与重构——大资管再造竞 争力"为核心主题，设置主论坛和平行主题论坛，在各论坛上，多位理财公司高管发表洞见。 同业创新动态： 1、8月16日，"2025资产管理年会"在上海启幕，主论坛后续环节中，浦银理财 举办了"日鑫悦益"产品体系2.0焕新暨科技金融五力模型主题产品发布会。该产品体系进行了四 大主产品线的战略进阶："日"系列实现现金管理类产品功能进阶"功能+"；"鑫"系列升级"债券 +"策略；"悦"系列深耕信用资产价值"项目+"；"益"系列强化多元配置，构建"固收+"多元矩阵。 2、8月19日，招银理财首度发布SMARP大类资产配置指数。该指数由招银理财和中诚信指数 联合发布，涵盖稳健、平衡和进取三种策略，旨在优化资产配置，实现动态风险管理，捕捉 债、股、商等多资产多策略机会。 收益率表现： 上周（2025.8.11-2025.8.17，下同） ...

21世纪经济报道记者 余纪昕 上海报道 资料来源：DM，截至8月20日早间开盘 但在20日午后，随着A股继续飙升，长端利率债收益率再度扭头上行，截至下午发稿，10年期国债活跃券收益率较早 间开盘上行2.15%。 债券一度成为"弱势资产" 经历了前几个交易日的"暴雨"，8月20日早盘债市企稳翻红。 上周，股债跷跷板的天平向权益市场持续倾斜，在股市创下多项纪录的同时，债市遭遇到了机构投资资金的转向压 力。10年期国债活跃券收益率从8月15日的1.72%一路走高到18日的1.7875%。 20日早间权益市场震荡走弱，债市总算短暂迎来修复窗口，各期限利率债普遍回暖，其中10年期口行活跃券下行 2bp，1-3年期国开债、口行债也普遍下行1bp，市场情绪明显改善。 | V | 利率债矩阵 | 地方债矩阵 | 信用债矩阵 | | N > D NCD矩阵 | 更多 >> | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 17 | 2Y | 3Y | 5Y | 7Y 10Y | | 超长期限 | | 国债 | 250008.IB | 250012.IB | 24 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The 2025 Asset Management Annual Conference highlighted the need for a competitive restructuring in the asset management sector, focusing on multi-asset and multi-strategy investment approaches [3][11]. - The report indicates a general decline in the annualized returns of cash management products and fixed-income products, reflecting market volatility and changing investor sentiment [5][16][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing research capabilities and service quality in the asset management industry to adapt to market changes and investor needs [12][13]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The 2025 Asset Management Annual Conference took place on August 16, focusing on the theme of "Breaking the Deadlock and Restructuring - Rebuilding Competitiveness in Asset Management" [3][11]. - Key executives from various financial institutions shared insights on the future of multi-asset investment strategies and the importance of AI infrastructure in driving growth [11][12]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - The report discusses the launch of the "日鑫悦益" product system by浦银理财, which includes strategic upgrades across four main product lines to enhance functionality and investment strategies [4][14]. - 招银理财 introduced the SMARP index, aimed at optimizing asset allocation and dynamic risk management across various asset classes [15]. Yield Performance - For the week of August 11-17, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.31%, down 3 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds yielded 1.20%, down 1 basis point [5][16][20]. - The report notes a general decline in annualized yields for fixed-income products across different maturities, influenced by market factors such as U.S.-China tariff concerns and consumer loan policies [18][19]. Net Value Tracking - The report indicates that the net value ratio of bank wealth management products rose to 1.52%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points week-on-week, reflecting a widening credit spread [6][24][26]. - The widening credit spread is noted to be at historical low levels since September 2024, suggesting limited value for investors [26].

机构认为，近日债基赎回压力有所增加，短期内债市难明显回暖，多数时间预计只能继续"看股做债"。 缴税走款影响持续，但央行公开市场逆回购操作已开始加力，而且8月非缴税大月，后续几日资金料出 现缓解之势。 【行情跟踪】 新华财经北京8月20日电 债市周三（8月20日）再度回调，期现券早间持稳、午后震荡走弱，国债期货 主力合约多数收跌，银行间现券收益率午后普遍转为上行；公开市场单日净投放4975亿元，资金利率延 续上行。 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.35%报116.050，10年期主力合约跌0.18%报107.855，5年 期主力合约跌0.10%报105.425，2年期主力合约持平于102.326。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间8月19日，10年期法债收益率跌1.1BP报3.434%，10年期德债收益率跌1.3BP 报2.747%，10年期意债收益率跌0.1BP报3.553%，10年期西债收益率跌0.6BP报3.320%。其他市场方 面，10年期英债收益率涨0.3BP报4.738%。 【一级市场】 财政部2期国债中标收益率均低于中债估值。财政部91天、5年期国债加权中标收益率分别为1.2715%、 1.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant increase in trading volume and a shift of deposits from traditional savings to non-bank financial products, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" driven by rising stock market performance and changing investor preferences [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Migration - In July, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 1.1 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant shift in deposit behavior [2][3]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to a growing interest in equity markets, as investors move funds from fixed-income products to stocks and other financial instruments [3][4]. - Historical patterns show that deposit migration often occurs during periods of low interest rates and rising stock markets, with previous instances noted in 2007, 2009, 2014-2015, and 2021-2024 [4]. Group 2: Market Activity - The A-share market has seen daily trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan since August, indicating heightened market activity and investor engagement [4][8]. - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 26% compared to May, although it remains below the peak levels of October last year [4]. - The recent surge in equity fund launches, with over 70% being equity funds, reflects strong investor confidence and a robust market outlook [8]. Group 3: Fund Redemption and Adjustments - A significant number of funds have adjusted their net asset value precision due to large-scale redemptions, with 54 funds reported to have made such adjustments since July [5][7]. - The redemption wave in fixed-income products is driven by a shift in investor preference towards equities, as well as high concentration of institutional investors in certain bond funds, leading to liquidity management issues [7]. - Fund managers are responding to redemption pressures by increasing the precision of net asset values to mitigate the impact on investors [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share index has reached a nearly 10-year high, prompting a shift in investment strategies among wealth management products, with a notable outflow of funds from cash management and pure fixed-income products towards equity-related investments [1][2][5]. Fund Flow Dynamics - Different types of wealth management products are experiencing varying levels of outflow pressure, with cash management and pure fixed-income products facing significant challenges due to lower yields compared to the rising stock market [2][5]. - As of July, the annualized yields for cash management and pure fixed-income products were only 1.46% and 2.38%, respectively, underperforming the 3.5% increase in the CSI 300 index [2]. - In contrast, mixed and equity-based wealth management products achieved average annualized returns of 6.52% and 37.14% over the past month, attracting more investment [2][5]. Redemption Concerns - Wealth management companies are cautious about potential redemption pressures, having redeemed funds from several bond funds to manage risks [4][5]. - The redemption pressure is particularly high for cash management products with annualized returns below 1.5%, as investors seek better returns in the equity market [7][8]. - The overall redemption pressure is somewhat mitigated by the return of bank deposit funds to the wealth management market after meeting semi-annual deposit assessment tasks [7][8]. Market Volatility and Strategy Shift - The current market volatility necessitates a shift from traditional single-asset strategies to diversified asset allocation, as reliance on a single investment strategy is becoming increasingly challenging [10][11]. - Wealth management firms are recognizing the need for enhanced multi-asset allocation capabilities to navigate market uncertainties and seek new return opportunities [10][11][12]. Challenges in Asset Diversification - Achieving effective asset diversification requires wealth management companies to develop strong research capabilities across various asset classes, including bonds, commodities, currencies, and equities [12][13]. - Companies must transition from traditional experience-based approaches to quantitative analysis for investment decision-making, which poses a challenge due to a lack of qualified talent in quantitative investment [12][13]. - The shift in investment logic from fixed-income to multi-asset strategies necessitates a transformation in product positioning and the overall product system within wealth management firms [13].