Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market has shown a steady growth in the third quarter of 2025, with a total market size of 32.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.76% [3][11] - The dominance of fixed income products continues, accounting for 97.14% of the total wealth management product size, while mixed products have seen slight growth [12] - The report highlights a shift towards technology-driven services in the wealth management sector, with major firms partnering with Tencent's "Wutong" platform to enhance investor education and customer service capabilities [16] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The China Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center released the "Quarterly Report on the Banking Wealth Management Market" for Q3 2025, indicating a robust growth in the number of wealth management products and their total size [11] - Several banks have signed agreements with Tencent's "Wutong" platform to leverage technology for improving financial services and investor education [15][16] - The successful implementation of a new data exchange protocol by Agricultural Bank and its wealth management arm marks a significant step towards standardizing and enhancing the efficiency of the wealth management industry [17] Performance Metrics - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.27%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.17% [19] - The net asset value (NAV) of banking wealth management products has shown a decrease in the breaking net rate to 1.12%, down 0.74 percentage points, indicating a potential pressure on the products' performance [27][29] - The report notes a convergence in credit spreads, which decreased by 3.44 basis points, suggesting a tightening in the credit market [29]

Core Viewpoints - The banking wealth management market shows steady growth, with the total scale reaching 32.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.76% [3][7] - The integration of technology and finance is enhancing investor education and customer service capabilities in the wealth management industry, marking a shift from product sales to service-driven models [11] - The introduction of new data exchange protocols in the banking sector is expected to improve efficiency and transparency in the wealth management market [12] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The China Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center released the "Quarterly Report on the Banking Wealth Management Market (Q3 2025)", indicating a robust growth in the wealth management market [3][7] - The number of wealth management products in the market reached 30,600, with a total scale of 29.28 trillion yuan, accounting for 91.13% of the market [7] - The increase in cash and bank deposits to 27.5% reflects a cautious investment approach among wealth management companies [9][10] Performance of Financial Products - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.27%, a decrease of 4 basis points, while money market funds saw a slight increase [14] - Fixed income products continue to dominate the market, with a total scale of 31.21 trillion yuan, representing 97.14% of all wealth management products [8] - The overall yield of fixed income products is under pressure due to market volatility and regulatory changes [17] Innovations in the Industry - Agricultural Bank and its wealth management arm successfully implemented a new data exchange protocol, enhancing the standardization and efficiency of the wealth management sector [12] - ICBC Wealth Management participated as a cornerstone investor in the IPO of Cambridge Technology, indicating a strategic focus on the AI computing industry [13] Tracking of Net Value Breaks - The net value break rate for wealth management products was 1.12%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points, with credit spreads tightening [22] - The current credit spread is at a historical low since September 2024, indicating limited value for wealth management products [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The Fed's rate cuts can be divided into preventive and relief (recessionary) rate cuts, with different policy triggering backgrounds and implementation goals [1][5]. - The Fed's preventive rate cut in September 2025 may have limited impact on China's bond market, as China's monetary policy emphasizes "independence" and focuses more on internal balance [1][88][89]. - In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure may increase, and the possibility of using policy tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the future rises. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline oscillating [2][90]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Types of Fed Rate Cuts - Preventive rate cuts are usually initiated when the economy shows signs of slowing but has not yet entered a recession, aiming to balance employment and inflation risks through small - scale and gradual interest rate adjustments, such as in 1995, 1998, 2019, 2024, and 2025 [1][5][79]. - Relief rate cuts often occur when the economy has fallen into a deep recession or faces a systemic crisis, characterized by large - scale and rapid interest rate cuts to stabilize the financial market, such as in 2001 - 2003, 2007 - 2008, and 2020 [1][5]. 2. Four Fed Rate - Cut Cycles Since 2000 2.1. 2001 - 2003 Relief Rate Cut - **Background and measures**: Triggered by the burst of the Internet bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attack, and corporate financial scandals. The Fed cut rates by 550 basis points from 6.5% to 1.0% [10]. - **US economic indicators**: GDP growth was sluggish, unemployment rate rose, core PCE inflation rate declined, and corporate investment was severely hit [13]. - **Impact on China's bond market**: China's central bank cut rates in 2002. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields showed different trends, reflecting the reduced sensitivity of the bond market to monetary easing when the domestic economy rebounded [19]. 2.2. 2007 - 2008 Relief Rate Cut - **Time, amplitude, and measures**: From September 2007 to December 2008, the Fed cut rates by 500 basis points to 0% - 0.25% and launched three rounds of QE [25][28]. - **Characteristics**: Fast - paced, large - amplitude, innovative policy tools, and multiple goals [29]. - **Impact on China's bond market**: The Sino - US yield spread narrowed and then fluctuated. There were changes in capital flows, with short - term international capital flowing in and out at different times [30][33][36]. 2.3. 2019 - 2020 Preventive + Relief Rate Cut - **Preventive rate cut (2019.7 - 2019.10)**: Against the background of global economic slowdown and Sino - US trade frictions, the Fed cut rates three times by 25 basis points each time. The US economy showed some recovery, and the bond market fluctuated. In China, the bond market was stable, and foreign capital increased holdings of RMB bonds [40][41][51]. - **Relief rate cut (2020.3)**: Due to the global public health event, the Fed cut rates to 0% - 0.25% and implemented unlimited QE. China also increased the easing intensity, and the bond yield declined and then rebounded [46][47][58]. 2.4. 2024 H2 Preventive Rate Cut - **Background, time, amplitude, and impact**: The Fed cut rates by 100 basis points in the second half of 2024, with a "fast - then - stable" feature. It aimed to avoid a hard landing of the economy. China's bond yields declined, and foreign capital increased holdings of Chinese bonds [60][66][67]. 3. Characteristics of the Preventive Rate Cut in 2025 - **Trigger paths**: Driven by the pressure of national debt scale and debt cost, and the marginal deterioration of the employment market [71][76]. - **Market pricing and yield trends**: The market had partially priced in the rate cut before it happened. After the rate cut in September 2025, the US Treasury yields first declined and then rose [79][80][82]. 4. Impact of the Fed's Rate - Cut Cycle on China's Bond Market - **Short - term impact**: The Fed's rate - cut expectation may attract foreign capital to flow into China's bond market through spread repair and open up space for domestic monetary policy [1][84]. - **Long - term impact**: China's bond market trend may depend more on domestic factors, including economic fundamentals and policy coordination. The influence of the Fed's policy on China's monetary policy may be weakening [87][88]. 5. Economic Situation and Bond Market Outlook in the Fourth Quarter - **Economic situation**: The economic growth in Q3 slowed down compared with Q1 and Q2. Consumption and exports may face pressure, and the external environment is also unstable, increasing the possibility of using policy tools [2][90]. - **Bond market outlook**: The bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline oscillating. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.60% - 1.80% [2][90].

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China has shown significant growth in the third quarter, particularly in equity funds, driven by a rebound in the A-share market and strong performance in technology-themed funds [1][2] - The competition among fund companies has intensified, with varying performance in fund management scale, particularly between those capitalizing on passive investment trends and those lagging behind [2][3] Fund Management Scale - As of the end of Q3, the total management scale of domestic public funds reached 36.45 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 2.41 trillion yuan from the end of Q2 [1] - The non-monetary management scale of public funds exceeded 22.05 trillion yuan, marking a continuous increase of over 1 trillion yuan for two consecutive quarters [2] - Leading fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund saw significant increases in their non-monetary management scale, with E Fund's growth exceeding 250 billion yuan in Q3 [2] Performance of Fund Types - Equity funds, particularly ETFs, have outperformed bond funds, with notable inflows into stock ETFs and "fixed income plus" products [4][5] - The top-performing funds in Q3 were primarily ETFs, with significant growth in products like Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, which increased by over 500 billion yuan [4] - "Fixed income plus" products also gained popularity, with notable increases in funds like Yongying Stable Enhancement and Invesco Great Wall Stable Growth [5] Market Dynamics - The "see-saw" effect between equity and bond markets has become evident, with funds shifting from pure bond funds to equity assets [4] - Over 70 smaller public funds experienced a decline in non-monetary management scale, primarily due to redemptions in bond funds and insufficient growth in equity funds [5][6] Active Equity Funds - Active equity funds, particularly those focused on technology themes, have seen a resurgence, with a total scale of approximately 4.3 trillion yuan, an increase of over 700 billion yuan from Q2 [7] - E Fund leads in active equity fund scale, followed by other firms like China Europe Fund and GF Fund, all exceeding 200 billion yuan [7] - The performance of specific active equity products has been outstanding, with some funds achieving year-to-date gains exceeding 200% [7][8]

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China has seen significant growth in total management scale, reaching 36.45 trillion yuan by the end of Q3, an increase of approximately 2.41 trillion yuan from Q2, driven by a rebound in the equity market and rising ETF scales [2][3] - The competition among fund companies has intensified, with top firms like E Fund and Huaxia Fund showing substantial growth in non-monetary management scale, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][4] Fund Performance - Equity funds have outperformed bond funds, with a notable shift of funds from pure bond funds to equity and "fixed income plus" products, highlighting a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [6][7] - The top-performing products in Q3 were mainly ETFs, with significant growth in scales for products like Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, reflecting strong investor interest [6][9] Company Rankings - The ranking of public fund companies has changed, with E Fund leading in non-monetary management scale growth, followed by Huaxia Fund and Fuguo Fund, which also saw substantial increases [3][4] - Smaller fund companies have faced challenges, with over 70 firms experiencing a decline in non-monetary management scale, primarily due to heavy redemptions in bond funds [7][8] Investment Trends - The technology-themed active equity funds have gained popularity, with a significant increase in their scale, reaching approximately 4.3 trillion yuan, marking the largest growth in recent quarters [9][10] - The performance of active equity funds has been impacted by poor results and fund manager departures, leading to a decline in scale for some funds [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the trends of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds diverged. Interest - rate bonds adjusted slightly, while credit bonds showed strong resilience and continued to recover, with ultra - long - term varieties having the highest repair degree [3][10][27]. - The market of Tier 2 capital bonds (Two - tier bonds) weakened, and the repair degree of the ultra - long - term part was weaker than that of other ultra - long - term credit bonds [4][17]. - The start of the ultra - long - term credit bond market was not driven by major non - bank institutions such as funds, wealth management, and insurance, so the sustainability of the market may not be stable. It is recommended that institutions with unstable liability ends avoid chasing the rise of ultra - long - term credit bonds. Instead, it is advisable to focus on short - and medium - term coupon sinking strategies [5][26][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Interest - rate Bonds and Credit Bonds - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y treasury bonds increased by 2.8BP, decreased by 0.2BP, increased by 1.5BP, increased by 2.2BP, and increased by 2.7BP respectively. In contrast, the yields of the same - term AAA and AA+ medium - term notes decreased [10][11]. - The yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term notes decreased by 5.77BP, the yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment bonds decreased by 5.86BP and 5.85BP respectively, the yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds decreased by 0.17BP, while the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased by 2.40BP [3][12][13]. 3.2 Curve Shape and Yield Quantile Analysis - The steepness of the 1 - 2 - year and 2 - 3 - year yield curves of all ratings is the highest, and the 3 - 5 - year yield curve of low - grade bonds also has a relatively high steepness [13]. - In terms of the historical quantiles of absolute yields and credit spreads, the 4 - 5Y range still has a certain cost - performance [15]. 3.3 Market Situation of Two - tier Bonds - The market of Two - tier bonds weakened, with adjustments in the 2Y - 5Y range. The repair degree of the ultra - long - term part was weaker than that of other ultra - long - term credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year AAA - bank secondary capital bonds changed to varying degrees [4][17]. - The buying interest in the active trading of Two - tier bonds was not weak, but the proportion of transactions below the valuation was not high, and the trading volume with a discount of more than 4BP was small [19][20]. 3.4 Market Situation of Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - There were not many sell - side transactions of ultra - long - term credit bonds last week, and the discount transaction was not a panic - selling situation. The discount transaction proportion was between 0.00% and 17.50%, and the discount amplitude was mostly within 4BP [21]. - The coupon of ultra - long - term credit bonds has a certain cost - performance, and the proportion of high - activity transactions below the valuation continued to increase, remaining at a high level throughout the week [22]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Analysis - Last week, public funds, wealth management, and insurance all reduced their net purchases of credit bonds compared with the previous week. Funds were net sellers of 5 - 30 - year credit bonds, with a net selling scale of 10.2 billion yuan [5][26]. - Other asset management products were net buyers of credit bonds, with a net purchase of 239.9 billion yuan, mainly increasing their holdings of 3 - 30 - year varieties, with a net purchase of 75.8 billion yuan [26].

Market Overview - The bond market experienced narrow fluctuations last week (2025.10.20-2025.10.24), with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 2.82 basis points to 1.47%, the 10-year yield up by 2.40 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30-year yield increasing by 1.24 basis points to 2.21% [3][14] - Factors such as the easing of China-US trade tensions boosted stock market sentiment, leading to pressure on the bond market, which displayed an overall oscillating pattern [3][14] - The bond market may present trading opportunities, supported by two factors: reduced catalysts for significant stock market increases and the typical "allocation rush" for bonds in the fourth quarter due to institutional year-end performance assessments [14] Fund Performance Tracking - The Money Market Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.22% since inception [4][17] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index also increased by 0.03%, achieving a cumulative return of 4.35% since inception [5][17] - The Mid-to-Long-term Bond Fund Index saw a rise of 0.08%, with a cumulative return of 6.44% since inception [6][17] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.23%, with a cumulative return of 4.18% since inception [7][17] - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.73%, achieving a cumulative return of 5.69% since inception [8][17] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.75%, with a cumulative return of 7.56% since inception [9][17] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index rose by 1.67%, achieving a cumulative return of 21.79% since inception [10][17] - The QDII Bond Fund Index decreased by 0.03%, with a cumulative return of 10.54% since inception [11][17] - The REITs Fund Index increased by 0.69%, achieving a cumulative return of 31.92% since inception [12][17] Bond Yield Trends - US Treasury yields fluctuated last week (2025.10.20-2025.10.24), with the 1-year yield rising by 3 basis points to 3.58%, the 2-year yield up by 2 basis points to 3.48%, and the 10-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 4.02% [15] - The market's risk aversion was heightened due to factors such as the ongoing US government shutdown, credit pressures, and geopolitical risks, followed by disappointing US CPI data that reinforced rate cut expectations [15] REITs Market Activity - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose by 0.16% last week, closing at 1045.13 points, with the environmental and data center sectors leading the gains [15] - As of October 24, 2025, 18 public REITs have been successfully issued this year, with two new public REITs making progress last week [15]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Fuhua Fund, once known for its "stable investment" approach, is currently facing significant challenges as its bond funds have underperformed, leading to a loss of investor confidence [3][9]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Huatai Fuhua's bond fund, Huatai Fuhua Pure Bond A, has experienced a drawdown of over 7% in the last three months and a loss of 5.4% in the last six months, ranking it among the bottom in the market [5][10]. - The fund's performance has shattered the perception that "pure bond funds equal stability," placing Huatai Fuhua under scrutiny as a leading fixed-income fund company [9][10]. - The overall bond market has seen a shift in investment logic, leading to a "double kill" scenario for both stocks and bonds, with Huatai Fuhua's fund being particularly affected [12][17]. Group 2: Market Conditions - A fundamental shift in macro policy expectations has occurred, with strong stimulus signals leading to increased inflation expectations and potential upward pressure on interest rates, negatively impacting the bond market [13][16]. - The "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds has become evident, with capital flowing from the bond market to the equity market due to lower deposit rates and a strong stock market performance [16][17]. Group 3: Management Issues - The significant losses in Huatai Fuhua Pure Bond A are attributed not only to market conditions but also to internal management decisions, including a sudden change in fund management during a turbulent market period [19][20]. - The previous fund manager, He Min, had a solid track record, while the new manager, Peng Weinan, lacks sufficient experience in managing long-term pure bond funds, leading to a mismatch in capability and asset complexity [23][25]. - The departure of experienced managers has created a talent gap within the firm, exacerbating the challenges faced by the fixed-income team [30][31]. Group 4: Governance and Trust Issues - The issues faced by Huatai Fuhua are indicative of deeper governance flaws and a crisis of trust within the company, as evidenced by a significant drop in the scale of new fund issuances from 200 billion in 2020 to 25.9 billion in 2024 [26][27]. - The internal pressure on research and investment talent has led to a situation where fund managers are overextended, making it difficult to conduct thorough due diligence on each bond [28][30]. - The lack of effective risk control and communication with investors has further intensified the trust crisis, as the fund's significant drawdown went unaddressed by the internal risk management system [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week (from October 20 to October 24, 2025), the bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Driven by factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade frictions and the "15th Five - Year Plan", the stock market sentiment was boosted, and the bond market was under pressure due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [3][10]. - Bond yield is unlikely to rise significantly because the stock market may turn to stable operation after the "15th Five - Year Plan" is implemented, and there is often a "bond rush" phenomenon in the fourth quarter. However, the downward space for yield has not been fully opened, as the progress of Sino - US negotiations and the implementation of the new fund fee regulations are important variables [10]. - The US bond yield oscillated last week. Affected by multiple factors such as the US government shutdown, credit pressure, and geopolitical risks, the market's risk - aversion sentiment increased. The release of the under - expected US CPI data in September strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts [11]. - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose by 0.16% last week, with the environmental protection, people's livelihood, and data center sectors leading the gains. Two new public REITs made progress in the primary market [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Market Observation - **Pan - fixed - income Market Review and Observation** - The bond market had a narrow - range oscillation last week. The 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 2.82BP, 2.40BP, and 1.24BP to 1.47%, 1.85%, and 2.21% respectively [3][10]. - The US bond yield oscillated. The 1 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year US bond yields increased by 3BP, 2BP, and 2BP to 3.58%, 3.48%, and 4.02% respectively [11]. - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose by 0.16% to 1045.13 points. Two new public REITs made progress in the primary market [11]. 3.2. Pan - fixed - income Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | YTD | Since Strategy Launch | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Money Enhancement Index | 0.03% | 0.12% | 1.24% | 4.22% | | Short - term Bond Fund Preferred | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.94% | 4.35% | | Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Preferred | 0.08% | 0.38% | 0.80% | 6.44% | | Low - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Preferred | 0.23% | 0.38% | 2.89% | 4.18% | | Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Preferred | 0.73% | 0.35% | 5.15% | 5.69% | | High - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Preferred | 0.75% | 0.27% | 7.82% | 7.56% | | Convertible Bond Fund Preferred | 1.67% | 0.94% | 18.10% | 21.79% | | QDII Bond Fund Preferred | - 0.03% | 0.45% | 5.45% | 10.54% | | REITs Fund Preferred | 0.69% | - 2.75% | 23.13% | 31.92% | [12] 3.3. Money Enhancement Index Tracking - **Money Enhancement Strategy Index** - The index aims for liquidity management, seeking a curve that surpasses money funds and rises smoothly. It mainly invests in money market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds [14]. - The performance benchmark is the CSI Money Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [14]. 3.4. Pure Bond Index Tracking - **Short - term Bond Fund Preferred Index** - The index aims for liquidity management, pursuing a smooth - rising curve while controlling drawdowns. It focuses on credit and risk management and consists of 5 selected funds [16]. - The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money Fund Index [16]. - **Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Preferred Index** - The index invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, aiming for stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds, balancing coupon strategies and band operations [19]. - It adjusts the duration according to market conditions to cope with interest rate changes [19]. 3.5. Fixed - income + Index Tracking - **Low - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index** - The equity center is set at 10%, and 10 funds are selected each period. It focuses on funds with an equity position within 15% in the past three years and recently [20][22]. - The performance benchmark is 10% * CSI 800 Index + 90% * ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [22]. - **Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index** - The equity center is 20%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects funds with an equity position between 15% - 25% [23]. - The performance benchmark is 20% * CSI 800 Index + 80% * ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [23]. - **High - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index** - The equity center is 30%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It chooses funds with an equity position between 25% - 35% [27]. - The performance benchmark is 30% * CSI 800 Index + 70% * ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [27]. 3.6. Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index - The sample space consists of bond - type funds with an average convertible bond investment proportion of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters [29]. - An evaluation system is built from the perspectives of funds, fund managers, and fund companies to select 5 funds [29]. 3.7. QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index Tracking - The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds, covering regions such as the world, Asia, and emerging markets. They are divided into investment - grade and high - yield products based on credit ratings [32]. - 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control are selected to form the index [32]. 3.8. REITs Fund Preferred Index Tracking - The underlying assets of REITs are mainly high - quality and stable infrastructure projects. The unit net value volatility is relatively limited [33]. - 10 funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity are selected according to the underlying asset types [33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the bond market adjusted, and long - term bond yields fluctuated upwards. The expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the overall boost of the Fourth Plenary Session to the "15th Five - Year Plan" risk preference led to the stock - bond seesaw effect, making the bond market oscillate weakly. Short - term yields rose slightly more than long - term yields, and the yield curve flattened further [2]. - This week (the week of October 27), the bond market will continue the weakly oscillating market. The easing expectation of Sino - US trade relations and the high market risk preference, along with the concern about the bond - fund redemption and asset re - allocation pressure caused by the new regulations on public - fund sales fees, will continue to suppress the bond market. Without trend - driving factors, the bond market needs to digest these negative factors, and the 10 - year Treasury yield will run in the range of 1.70% - 1.80% [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Section 1: Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market adjusted, and long - term bond yields rose significantly. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract fell 0.24% cumulatively. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 2.40bp, and the 1 - year Treasury yield rose 2.82bp compared with the previous Friday, and the term spread continued to narrow [3]. - From October 20 to 24, the bond market showed different trends each day. For example, on October 20, the bond market weakened due to the stock - market rebound and progress in Sino - US talks; on October 21, the bond market oscillated strongly due to the expected interest - rate cut [3]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 107 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an issuance volume of 10763 billion, a net financing of 847 billion. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and local bonds increased, while those of policy - bank bonds decreased [9]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiples of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local bonds were 2.61 times, 3.36 times, and 20.42 times respectively [10]. Section 2: Last Week's Important Events - In the third quarter of 2025, GDP growth slowed down to 4.8%. Although the export growth accelerated, domestic investment and consumption decelerated, and the pulling force of domestic demand on economic growth weakened. The slowdown of infrastructure investment, the impact on manufacturing investment confidence, and the decline of real - estate investment led to a significant decline in investment growth, which was the main reason for the GDP growth slowdown [11]. Section 3: Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency data on the production side increased, such as the blast - furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum - asphalt plant operating rate, while the daily average pig - iron output decreased. On the demand side, the BDI index declined, and the CCFI index rose slightly. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased slightly. In terms of prices, pork prices continued to fall, while most commodity prices rose [12]. Section 4: Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market net investment was 1981 billion yuan. R007 decreased, DR007 increased, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit increased, the national - share direct - discount rates of all terms decreased, the volume of pledged - repo transactions fluctuated and decreased, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio continued to decline [23].