Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing intensified fluctuations in Q4, contrasting with last year's bullish trend, leading to challenges in trading strategies [1][4]. Market Performance - As of September, the yield on bonds from various banks has risen above 1.8%, with specific yields recorded at 1.8093% for joint-stock banks, 1.8058% for city commercial banks, and 1.8437% for rural commercial banks, marking a significant increase from the previous month [1][2]. - The trading volume of bonds in September reached 146,366.88 billion yuan, with the overall yield averaging 1.9091% across different bank types [2][3]. Yield Trends - The ten-year government bond yield has been fluctuating, reaching 1.8591% by October 14, with predictions suggesting a range between 1.5% and 1.9% for the remainder of the year [2][4]. - The yields recorded in September are the second highest of the year, following March's figures, indicating a potential peak in bond yields [2][5]. Influencing Factors - Several factors are contributing to the bond market's volatility, including the stock-bond relationship, regulatory attitudes, and adjustments in value-added tax policies [2][4]. - The market sentiment has shifted towards a more balanced trading environment, with increased interest in long-term bonds as yields rise [4][5]. Strategic Adjustments - Banks are advised to enhance their trading capabilities while incorporating derivatives for hedging and adjusting their asset allocations to maintain a reasonable bond investment ratio [6]. - Investment strategies are focusing on identifying market trends and adjusting positions to optimize returns, with an emphasis on flexible trading strategies in a volatile environment [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the changes in capital market sentiment. If the A-share market starts to adjust, it will be beneficial for the bond market to rise. The recommended operation is to partially take profits on long positions at low levels and hold some to observe if it can continue to rise. For those with no positions, it is advisable to go long on dips [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures opened lower and closed higher, with all varieties closing up. Most spot bond yields declined, with a larger decline in the long - end yields in the afternoon, but the decline narrowed at the end of the session. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 9.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 9.1 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - China has officially imposed special port fees on US ships starting today. Industry insiders suggest that a document to strengthen the regulation of photovoltaic production capacity may be issued soon [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - The capital market sentiment changed again today. In the morning, the stock market opened higher while the bond market sentiment was low. After the opening, bond futures once retraced deeply, and then the bond market recovered as the stock market declined. In the afternoon, the sharp decline of the stock market drove up the gains of medium - and long - term bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect again. From the market trends in the past two days, the A - share market has some adjustment pressure due to the excessive rise of the main sectors. With November 1st being an important node for the China - US meeting, the capital market may have a certain cautious attitude before then. If the A - share market starts to adjust in the future, it will be conducive to the rise of the bond market [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 14 | 2025 - 10 - 13 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.386 | 102.366 | 0.02 | | TF2512 | 105.765 | 105.665 | 0.1 | | T2512 | 108.19 | 108.05 | 0.14 | | TL2512 | 114.74 | 114.37 | 0.37 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0117 | 0.0017 | - 0.0134 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.002 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0631 | 0.082 | - 0.0189 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2925 | 0.3522 | - 0.0597 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 74633 | 74436 | 197 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 155962 | 147179 | 8783 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 263295 | 252554 | 10741 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 180122 | 172579 | 7543 | | TS Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 32167 | 31658 | 509 | | TF Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 73462 | 60280 | 13182 | | T Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 125811 | 85927 | 39884 | | TL Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 155935 | 124744 | 31191 | [4]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera (511130) has seen a decline of 0.34% as of October 14, 2025, with a latest price of 105.39 yuan, while it has accumulated a rise of 2.45% over the past year as of October 13, 2025 [3] - The trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF was 15.09 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 8.37%, and the average daily trading volume over the past month was 35.89 billion yuan [3] - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of the last tranche of 20-year special treasury bonds for 2025, amounting to 40 billion yuan, completing the annual issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan for special treasury bonds [3] Group 2 - On October 13, the yields for 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds increased, with active bonds rising by 1.5-2.0 basis points at the opening [4] - The yields for 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds closed at 1.76% and 2.11%, respectively, with increases of 1.8 basis points and 3.0 basis points compared to the previous day [4] - Institutional behavior indicates that some funds may seek to realize profits before year-end, with banks being the main sellers in the long-term bond market [4] Group 3 - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera reached 18.047 billion yuan [5] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year Treasury bond index, which reflects the overall performance of the corresponding maturity Treasury bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the convertible bond market and its outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting the broader fixed income market dynamics and macroeconomic factors affecting investment strategies. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Volatility and Investment Strategy** The convertible bond market is expected to face significant volatility in Q4, contrasting with the high yield and low volatility observed in Q3. Historical comparisons indicate that Q3 2025 outperformed Q3 2021 in terms of lower volatility and higher returns [2][3][4]. 2. **Asset Management Behavior** Active asset management institutions are reducing their positions, while public funds and ETFs are increasing their holdings. Insurance companies are significantly reducing their convertible bond holdings, indicating a trend of profit-taking in a high valuation environment [2][3][15]. 3. **Economic Indicators and Policy Outlook** Economic growth is projected to slow, with Q3 GDP growth expected to drop to 4.6% from 5.3% in the first half of the year. The demand side is under pressure, particularly in real estate and manufacturing, necessitating close monitoring of policy changes [13][14]. 4. **Deposit Migration Phenomenon** The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has intensified, with funds shifting from low-risk assets to the stock market, potentially slowing the inflow of new funds into the bond market. This trend began in February 2024 and has accelerated since July 2025 [9][10][11]. 5. **Investment Opportunities in Convertible Bonds** Strategies focusing on "dual low" convertible bonds (low price and low volatility) have performed well recently. Future attention should be directed towards equity-linked varieties, dual low varieties, and mid-to-low priced convertible bonds, particularly in sectors like lithium batteries, humanoid robots, photovoltaics, chemicals, and AI computing [5][6]. 6. **Macroeconomic Rate Outlook** The macroeconomic rate outlook emphasizes a "news-driven" strategy, with limited impact from overseas changes on the domestic bond market. The overall yield is adjusting upwards, but the central bank's supportive stance maintains liquidity [7][18]. 7. **Fund Market Volatility** The fund market has experienced significant volatility, with a notable decline in fund sizes since July. The introduction of new regulations regarding fund fees has raised concerns about the market's stability [17][22]. 8. **Credit Bond Market Performance** The credit bond market has shown resilience, particularly in short-term, lower-rated bonds. Future performance will depend on the interplay of stock-bond dynamics, liquidity changes, and central bank policies [19][20]. Additional Important Points 1. **Risk Factors for Q4** Key risks include the potential for a slow bull market in equities, which may lead to adjustments in yield spreads, and the impact of redemption pressures from wealth management products and funds [21][24]. 2. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A defensive investment strategy is recommended, focusing on coupon strategies and quick trades to capitalize on oversold conditions. Investors should also monitor the performance of credit bond ETFs as a key indicator of fund flows [25][30]. 3. **Sector-Specific Opportunities** Attention should be given to specific sectors such as industrials, trade, and chemicals for higher yield opportunities, particularly in regions with high turnover rates like Shandong and Jiangsu [28][27]. 4. **Thematic Investment Opportunities** The call suggests exploring thematic investments, particularly in technology and innovation sectors, as potential areas for capital gains, especially in the context of the recent performance of the STAR Market [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategic recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the convertible bond market and its associated risks and opportunities.

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: October 12, 2025 [1] - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report Group 2: Core Views - Treasury bond futures contracts rose this week except for the TL contract; due to the escalation of the Sino-US trade war over the weekend, treasury bond futures may open higher across the board on Monday [4][5] - Maintain the view that the medium - term general direction is oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - The treasury bond futures market this week showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak, with short - term stability and long - term pressure, and the yield curve flattened [5][7] - The core driving factors of the overall market include liquidity differentiation, policy game, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [7] Group 3: Section Summaries 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - After the holiday, the treasury bond futures showed an oscillating pattern of being strong first and then weak. Before the holiday, the central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase, and market funds rates continued to rise. After the holiday, funds were generally loose, which supported the bond market sentiment. However, the market was sensitive to policy expectations and marginal tightening of liquidity [5] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Relevant data is presented in Figure 4, but specific content is not described in the text [11] 3. Seat Analysis - The daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 2.25%; foreign capital increased by 2.8%; wealth management subsidiaries increased by 3.57% [12]

Group 1 - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached 36.25 trillion yuan by the end of August, marking a growth of over 1 trillion yuan from the end of July, with a growth rate of 3.34% [1] - The increase in public fund size reflects a recovery in the equity market and a restoration of investor confidence, indicating the attractiveness of capital markets for wealth management [1] - Equity funds and mixed funds have shown strong performance, with equity funds being the main driver of overall growth in public fund size [1] Group 2 - Investor willingness to allocate to equity funds has surged due to the recent market recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 7.97% in August, marking its best performance in nearly 11 months [2] - In August, a total of 1.02 billion new fund shares were issued, with equity funds accounting for 472 million shares, indicating a strong demand for equity investments [2] - While equity funds are performing well, bond funds have seen a decline in both size and shares, although there is still potential for growth in the bond market in the long term [2] Group 3 - Continuous policy benefits and reforms are creating a favorable environment for the development of public funds, with recent policies aimed at increasing the proportion of equity funds [3] - The ongoing reform of public fund fee structures is expected to enhance service quality, including investor education and diversified product design [3] - The public fund industry is encouraged to better meet the wealth management needs of residents while serving the real economy, focusing on value creation rather than just scale [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - term (2 - year) and medium - term (5 - year, 10 - year) contracts had slight increases, while long - term (30 - year) contracts were significantly under pressure. - The market's expectation of long - term monetary policy easing increased due to insufficient domestic demand, but the probability of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut decreased, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the bond market. - The rise of A - share major indices in September increased risk appetite and suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. The traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect weakened, and the bond market oscillated independently. - The Fed's interest rate cut in September alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, providing support for short - and medium - term contracts, but long - term contracts were significantly affected by interest rate sensitivity and institutional portfolio adjustments. - In October, it is expected that the market will maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The ten - year treasury bond futures 2512 (T2512) main contract had 8阴线 and 14阳线 in 22 trading days in September. The highest price of 108.320 yuan was reached on September 4, and the lowest price of 107.345 yuan was on September 25. The overall trend in September was an oscillation around the 5 - month moving average, and it closed with a positive K - line with upper and lower shadows. [2] - **Variety Price**: Among the 16 treasury bond futures contracts, different contracts had different price changes. For example, the two - year treasury bond (TS2509) contract rose by 0.004 yuan, while the two - year treasury bond (TS2512) contract fell by 0.046 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts generally showed a leading decline. [4][5] 3.2 Spot Market - In September 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a series of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. For example, on September 1, it carried out 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and on September 26, it carried out 1658 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. [6][7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: In September 2025, there were several important events. On September 3, a grand ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held in Beijing. On September 12, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds with a scale of 82 billion yuan and a term of 30 years. On September 19, the Ministry of Finance issued the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (sixth issue) with a 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond and a coupon rate of 2.15%. On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. [8][9] - **Technical Analysis**: From the trend of the ten - year treasury bond (T2512) contract in September, it rose rapidly at the beginning of the month, reaching the monthly high of 108.320 yuan on September 4, then fell and rebounded after breaking the early - September price, but did not break through the September 4 high and then fell again to a new low. On the last trading day of September, it closed with a long positive line and a long upper shadow, indicating active trading and some profit - taking. After the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to investment opportunities on the first trading day. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook - In September, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - and medium - term contracts had slight increases, while long - term contracts were under significant pressure. In October, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with increased difficulty in investment compared to last year, influenced by various factors including policy changes and market dynamics [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets saw gains, with government bond futures rising across the board [2][3]. - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 0.6 basis points to 1.777% [2][3]. - The bond market has shown a wide fluctuation in yields this year, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating nearly 15 basis points since its issuance [3][8]. Group 2: Investment Challenges - The investment returns from banks have significantly weakened year-on-year, impacting their profitability [1][7]. - The introduction of new public fund sales regulations and the resumption of value-added tax on bond interest income are causing institutions to adjust their strategies [7][9]. - The bond market's "dull knife cutting meat" trend has led to increased pressure on investors, with many institutions facing challenges in navigating the current market environment [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism for the bond market, noting that while trading enthusiasm may slightly recover, overall trading space remains limited [1][6]. - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations [1][6]. - There is a consensus that even if the fundamental data remains poor in the fourth quarter, the continued loose monetary policy may not significantly lower bond yields [5][6].

Group 1 - The net financing amount of urban investment bonds has been negative for seven consecutive months, with a financing gap of 32.64 billion yuan in September [1] - In September, the issuance of urban investment bonds was 482.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.76% month-on-month, with a total issuance of 4,091.83 billion yuan and total repayment of 4,277.05 billion yuan for the year [1] - The overall financing pace in the urban investment bond market remains tight, with an increase in registrations, a slowdown in approvals, and a rise in terminations [1] Group 2 - After the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets experienced a positive start, with government bond futures rising and major interest rates on bonds declining [2] - The investment environment in the bond market has become more challenging compared to last year, influenced by various factors including the resumption of VAT on bond investments and new regulations on public funds [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.13 billion yuan on October 9 [6] - A one-stop account opening platform for foreign institutions in the interbank bond market has been launched, aimed at facilitating foreign investment [6] Group 4 - In the first nine months of the year, Inner Mongolia's technology innovation bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 11.5 billion yuan, supporting technology enterprises with core technologies [9] - Yunnan province has issued guidelines to encourage state-owned enterprises to acquire and revitalize historical risk real estate projects, while ensuring no new hidden government debt [9] Group 5 - The issuance of company bonds by Zhengzhou Road and Bridge Group is set at 500 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA [11] - The first expansion of a holding-type real estate ABS has been completed, raising an additional 453 million yuan, bringing the total scale to 1.623 billion yuan [13] Group 6 - The market sentiment regarding the bond market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a potential rebound in October, although institutions advise against chasing prices [20][21] - The bond market environment is improving, with better asset pricing and a focus on defensive strategies, particularly in the short to medium-term credit space [20]

假期后首个交易日，在上证指数时隔10年重新站上3900点关口的同时，债市延续节前最后一个交易日的 反弹趋势，进一步回温。 截至收盘，国债期货各主力合约全面收涨。其中，30年期国债期货报收114.53元，涨幅0.46%；10年期 国债期货报收108.045元，涨幅0.15%；5年期国债期货报收105.730元，涨幅0.07%；2年期国债期货报收 102.394元，涨幅0.02%。 现券方面，当天银行间市场主要利率债收益率多数下行。其中，10年期国债"25附息国债 11"（250011.IB）收益率下行0.6BP（基点）报1.777%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"（250002.IB） 收益率下行0.5BP报2.125%，7年期国债"25附息国债07"（250007.IB）收益率下行1.5BP报1.7025%。 回顾节前表现，9月30日，债市在连续两日下跌后大幅上涨，250011.IB收益率下行至1.78%，超长债则 延续弱势，250002.IB收益率下行1.5BP，但仍在2.13%的高位。 今年以来，股债市场跷跷板效应持续上演，债市表现与去年的单边债牛相比明显走弱，整体呈宽幅震荡 走势。其中，10年期品 ...