Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking fluctuated, with crude oil rising significantly. High - sulfur fuel oil showed good performance in oil product profits due to a large proportion of Iranian supply. The 380 - month spread fluctuated, with a 7 - 8 - month spread of $11.5, and the basis strengthened. The domestic FU showed a differentiation between near and far months, with 07 dropping to around -$5 (it is expected that there will be a relatively large amount of delivery goods), and 09 fluctuating at $9. The Singapore 0.5 cracking declined, while the month - spread and basis strengthened. [5][6] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory continued to accumulate, high - sulfur floating storage accumulated, low - sulfur floating storage fluctuated at a low level, ARA slightly reduced inventory, floating storage inventory fluctuated, Fujairah's on - shore inventory accumulated, and floating storage significantly accumulated. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased significantly, while Russia's shipments decreased month - on - month. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region and cannot participate in physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future due to US sanctions, and if the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. [6] - Currently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, suppressing the near - month contracts of domestic and foreign FU, with low valuation and continued gaming. In the future, attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Middle East, and the significant downward driving force at home and abroad has decreased. The domestic LU production increased month - on - month. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by $24.82, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by $21.27, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by $0.57, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by $57.41, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 decreased by $36.14, LGO - Brent M1 increased by $5.23, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by $3.55. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by $1.57, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by $2.99, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by $4.04, Singapore GO M1 increased by $3.35, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by $1.25, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 decreased by $20.75. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $1.59, FOB VLSFO increased by $2.64, the 380 - basis decreased by $2.90, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by $1.7, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by $0.4. [4] Domestic FU Data - During this period, FU 01 increased by 35, FU 05 increased by 24, FU 09 increased by 36, FU 01 - 05 increased by 11, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 12, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 1. [4] Domestic LU Data - From June 13 to June 19, 2025, LU 01 increased by 54, LU 05 increased by 143, LU 09 increased by 62, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 89, LU 05 - 09 increased by 81, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 8. [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, drawing global attention, particularly in the energy market, due to its implications for geopolitical stability and energy security [1][2] - Israel has targeted Iranian energy infrastructure, including gas processing plants and fuel depots, while Iran has retaliated against Israeli oil facilities [1][2] - The potential for U.S. involvement in the conflict raises concerns about significant disruptions to global energy supplies, especially if Iran were to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz [2][10] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - Since the onset of the conflict, Brent crude oil prices have surged by 9% to 10%, with prices reaching around $76.43 per barrel for August delivery [3] - The conflict has primarily affected market sentiment rather than actual supply, with Brent crude prices fluctuating between $75 and $78 per barrel [3][11] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will exceed demand significantly this year, despite the geopolitical tensions [6][7] Group 3: Natural Gas Market Impact - The natural gas market, particularly in Europe, has been affected by the conflict, with the Dutch TTF gas benchmark price rising due to Israel halting production at its major offshore gas fields [4][20] - The conflict has led to increased shipping costs and insurance premiums as vessels reroute to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that the market is factoring in "blockage risks" [19] Group 4: Diesel Market Dynamics - Diesel prices have seen the most significant increases, with U.S. diesel prices rising by 10 cents to $3.571 per gallon, while gasoline prices increased by only 3 cents [20][21] - The conflict has exacerbated existing tensions in the diesel market, with U.S. diesel inventories at a 20-year low and European refiners facing operational disruptions [20][21] - If the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked, it could lead to chaos in the diesel market, as approximately 850,000 barrels of diesel are transported through the strait daily, accounting for 3% of global demand [22] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks and Future Scenarios - Analysts express concerns that the situation could escalate beyond the current conflict, potentially leading to severe disruptions in oil supply and price spikes [24][26] - The possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant concern, with analysts divided on the likelihood of such an action due to its economic implications for Iran [10][14] - The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is underscored by the fact that it handles about 20% of the world's oil and LNG trade, making any disruption a critical issue for global energy markets [18]

Report Overview - Report Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team of ONGAN FUTURES [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking was volatile, with crude oil rising significantly. High-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread was volatile, with the 7 - 8 spread at $11.5, and the basis strengthened. The domestic FU showed a differentiation between near and far months, with the 07 contract falling to around -$5 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuating at $9. The Singapore 0.5 cracking declined, the month spread strengthened month-on-month, and the basis strengthened [5]. - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory continued to accumulate, high-sulfur floating storage accumulated, low-sulfur floating storage oscillated at a low level, ARA slightly destocked, floating storage inventory oscillated, Fujairah's onshore inventory accumulated, floating storage significantly accumulated, Saudi Arabia's shipments increased significantly, and Russia's shipments decreased month-on-month. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and not being eligible for physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future due to US sanctions. If the risk event in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, the impact will be greater. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, suppressing the near-month contracts of domestic and international FU, with low valuation and continued gaming. In the future, attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Middle East, and the large downward driving force for both domestic and international markets has decreased. The production of LU increased month-on-month [6]. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data (M1) | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | 2025/06/17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF | 409.51 | 417.96 | 441.01 | 440.56 | 458.53 | 17.97 | | 0.5% VLS | 461.45 | 468.13 | 487.74 | 480.32 | 500.63 | 20.31 | | HSFO - Brent | -2.98 | -2.76 | -2.60 | -1.20 | -1.72 | -0.52 | | 10ppm Gasoil | 616.64 | 625.97 | 662.68 | 661.89 | 704.24 | 42.35 | | VLSFO - Gasoil | -155.19 | -157.84 | -174.94 | -181.57 | -203.61 | -22.04 | | LGO - Brent | 15.03 | 16.61 | 16.61 | 17.44 | 19.66 | 2.22 | | VLSFO - HSFO | 51.94 | 50.17 | 46.73 | 39.76 | 42.10 | 2.34 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data (M1) | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst | 415.25 | 429.92 | 459.79 | 470.69 | - | | 180cst | 422.25 | 437.61 | 467.24 | 477.81 | - | | VLSFO | 488.19 | 499.41 | 525.21 | 526.47 | - | | Gasoil | 81.81 | 83.98 | 87.92 | 89.80 | - | | 380cst - Brent | -0.88 | -0.39 | 0.21 | 1.75 | - | | VLSFO - Gasoil | -117.20 | -122.04 | -125.40 | -138.05 | - | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | 2025/06/17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 435.55 | 448.16 | 471.75 | 484.57 | 485.00 | 0.43 | | FOB VLSFO | 499.42 | 511.48 | 534.27 | 536.09 | 539.02 | 2.93 | | 380 Basis | 12.95 | 10.25 | 7.80 | 10.40 | 8.03 | -2.37 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.8 | 6.2 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 10.5 | -0.5 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 17.6 | 17.1 | 20.3 | 18.7 | 18.6 | -0.1 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | 2025/06/17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2780 | 2852 | 3048 | 3079 | 3028 | -51 | | FU 05 | 2727 | 2798 | 2986 | 3004 | 2964 | -40 | | FU 09 | 2912 | 2997 | 3205 | 3276 | 3247 | -29 | | FU 01 - 05 | 53 | 54 | 62 | 75 | 64 | -11 | | FU 05 - 09 | -185 | -199 | -219 | -272 | -283 | -11 | | FU 09 - 01 | 132 | 145 | 157 | 197 | 219 | 22 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | 2025/06/17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3414 | 3496 | 3671 | 3695 | 3643 | -52 | | LU 05 | 3348 | 3461 | 3625 | 3620 | 3575 | -45 | | LU 09 | 3524 | 3609 | 3785 | 3829 | 3762 | -67 | | LU 01 - 05 | 66 | 35 | 46 | 75 | 68 | -7 | | LU 05 - 09 | -176 | -148 | -160 | -209 | -187 | 22 | | LU 09 - 01 | 110 | 113 | 114 | 134 | 119 | -15 | [5] Fuel Oil Morning Report Data (2025/06/17) | Product | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 475.20 | 4.51 | | - | 480.95 | 3.14 | | - | 530.09 | 3.62 | | - | 90.67 | 0.87 | | - | 2.10 | 0.35 | | - | -140.87 | -2.82 | [11]

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-13 原油端表现强势，盘面受到提振 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨1.37%，报3023元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.33%，报3652 元/吨。 原油价格在欧佩克会议后呈现震荡偏强走势，短期基本面尚可，且近日中东地缘局势有升温迹象，油价进一步上 涨，并对燃料油等下游能化品形成一定提振。但中期而言，原油仍面临平衡表转为过剩的潜在压力，因此持续反 弹后上方存在阻力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体市场矛盾有限。高硫燃料油裂解价差近期呈现回调态势，就基本面来看，随 着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场短期存在支撑。其中，埃及燃料油进口菱延续增长态势。 参考船期数据，埃及6月份高硫燃料油进口量目前预计在66万吨（后续还有上修空间），环比增加6万吨，同比去年 持平。参考去年季节性，发电终端需求还有提升空间。但由于此前高硫油裂解价差涨至绝对高位，下游炼厂端需 求受到压制，叠加欧佩克加速增产的计划，在未来发电终端需求回落后市场将开始面临压力，需要裂解价差下跌 来吸引炼厂端的弹性需求，以达成市场的再平衡。低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，国内保税 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-12 需求表现一般，裂解价差回落 市场分析 1、6月11日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3461元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌37元/吨，跌幅 1.06%；持仓221869手，环比上涨5919手，成交199501手，环比下降21144手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3800—4086元/吨；山东，3500—3950元/吨；华南，3350—3500元/吨； 华东，3600—3670元/吨。 原油价格延续震荡偏强走势，沥青成本端支撑稳固。昨日华北以及华南地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，其余地区沥 青现货价格以持稳为主。盘面出现一定回调，近日走势弱于原油，裂解价差下跌。就沥青自身基本面而言，供需 两弱格局大体延续，但供应出现一定边际上的增量，大型炼厂开工率有所提升。相比之下，沥青刚性需求总体表 现欠佳，尤其南方地区进入梅雨季节，频繁降雨天气导致道路施工受阻，抑制沥青终端消费，对市场情绪存在一 定消极影响。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 20 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-10 市场短期矛盾有限，盘面震荡运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.75%，报2927元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.4%，报3514 元/吨。 原油价格在欧佩克会议后连续反弹，短期基本面尚可，市场存在一定支撑，但中期仍面临平衡表转为过剩的压力， 因此上方存在阻力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体市场矛盾有限。高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需 求逐步提升，或提振亚洲高硫油市场氛围，市场短期存在支撑。但中期来看，由于高硫油裂解价差偏高，下游炼 厂端需求受到压制，叠加欧佩克加速增产的计划，在未来发电终端需求回落后市场将开始面临压力，需要裂解价 差下跌来吸引炼厂端的弹性需求。低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，国内保税港口库存偏低，市场结构持稳 运行。但随着国内炼厂检修季结束，预计低硫燃料油国产量将逐渐回升，市场偏紧的状况或边际缓和。而站在中 期视角，低硫燃料油仍面临船燃端需求份额被替代的趋势。 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最 ...

Group 1 - The Indian oil and gas industry is expected to experience significant growth in FY2026 and FY2027 despite recent market volatility [1][3] - Companies in the sector are projected to achieve average sales, EBITDA, and PAT growth of 6%, 12.9%, and 13.3% respectively in FY2026, and 7.8%, 9%, and 10.1% in FY2027 [3] - Preferred investment targets identified include Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), GAIL India Ltd (GAIL), Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL), and Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd (GOLI) [3] Group 2 - The oil market has experienced significant fluctuations, with a 22.9% year-on-year decline in Brent crude oil prices as of May 2025, influenced by increased production from OPEC members [4] - Despite lower crude prices, the gross refining margin (GRM) has improved significantly, with an 85% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 121% year-on-year increase, averaging $6.4 per barrel [4] - The natural gas market shows a mixed trend, with U.S. Henry Hub prices dropping 31.8% due to oversupply, while Asian spot LNG prices rose 6.7% to $11.9 per million British thermal units due to strong regional demand [4]

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-06 富查伊拉燃料油库存大幅下滑 市场分析 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：关注逢高空FU裂解价差（FU-SC或FU-Brent）的机会，短期支撑偏强，尽量逢高布局 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.1%，报2934元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.63%，报3489 元/吨。 原油价格在欧佩克会议后强势反弹，短期基本面较为稳固，市场存在一定支撑，但中期仍面临平衡表转为过剩的 压力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，近日高硫燃料油市场结构有边际转弱的迹象，裂解基差从绝对高位出现一定幅度回落。 但目前来看，市场支撑仍存。随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，或提振亚洲高硫油市场氛围。 参考普式数据，富查伊拉燃料油库存本周录得723.8万桶，环比前一周下跌24.56%。富查伊拉的大幅去库背后，可 能是来自于中东发电厂的采购需求增长。中期来看，由于高硫油裂解价差过高，下游炼厂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report Polyester Industry - PX: Recent downstream demand and new device commissioning limit short - term downside. Strategies include focusing on 6500 support, 9 - 1 reverse spread, and narrowing PX - SC spread [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakens, but short - term support is strong due to raw materials. Strategies are to focus on 4600 support and 9 - 1 reverse spread [20]. - MEG: June supply remains low, with de - stocking expected. Strategies are to focus on 4200 support for EG09 and 9 - 1 positive spread [20]. - Short - fiber: Price and basis are boosted, but processing fee repair is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA for PF and expanding processing fee at low levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: June supply - demand may improve, processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA for PR and expanding processing fee at the lower end of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [20]. Methanol Industry - Market sentiment recovers, but the driving force is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but the port's July inventory build - up expectation remains. The unilateral range is 2150 - 2350 [23]. PE and PP Industry - Plastic: Early June maintenance increases, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decline. PP: June maintenance returns, increasing supply pressure. Strategies are to go short on PP at high prices and expect LP spread to expand [31]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebound and then fall significantly. Short - term, the market is range - bound. Long - term, a band - trading approach is recommended. WTI range is [59, 69], Brent is [61, 71], and SC is [440, 500]. Options can use a straddle structure [36]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: Supply - side contradiction is limited, demand from alumina supports prices. Short - term, spot is strong, and consider expanding the near - month to 09 spread [40]. - PVC: Long - term, supply - demand is weak. Short - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is sluggish. Maintain a short - selling strategy with a range of 4500 - 5000 [40]. Urea Industry - The market has priced in strong supply and weak demand. Future supply contraction, cost support, agricultural demand time - difference, and potential export increase may form a multi - factor resonance [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude (August) on June 4 was 64.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.77 dollars from the previous day. CFR China PX was 852 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [20]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 72.0%, up 2.6% from the previous period. PTA开工率 was 75.7%, down 1.4% [20]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price on June 4 was 2330 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The port - to - inland price difference increased [24]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.049%, up 4.38%. Methanol port inventory was 58.1 million tons, up 11.14% [24]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 12%, down 62.5%. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 84.52%, up 1.0% [24]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price on June 4 was 7018 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. The basis of some products decreased [27]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 was 51.8 million tons, up 7.41%. PP贸易商库存 was 13.6 million tons, down 11.05% [29][30]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 was 76.8%, down 1.51%. PP装置开工率 was 75.4%, down 1.8% [29][30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent on June 5 was 64.77 dollars/barrel, down 0.09 dollars. The crack spread of some refined oils changed slightly [36]. - **EIA Data**: As of May 30, US crude production was 1340.8 million barrels/day, up 0.7 million barrels/day. Commercial crude inventory decreased by 430.4 million barrels [44]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The export profit of caustic soda decreased [40]. - **开工率**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.2%, up 0.4%. PVC总开工率 was 74.6%, up 1.5% [40]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 20.8 million tons, up 1.8%. PVC总社会库存 was 36.3 million tons, down 1.5% [40]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: 01 contract closing price on June 4 was 1706 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between some contracts changed [51][52]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea internal inventory was 103.54 million tons, up 5.48%. Port inventory was 20.50 million tons, unchanged [57]. - **开工率**: Urea production factory开工率 was 90.16%, up 0.63% [57].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are oscillating strongly after OPEC actions. The short - term fundamentals are relatively stable with some market support, but there is pressure on the balance sheet to turn into surplus in the medium term, which will limit the rebound space [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure shows signs of marginal weakening, and the crack spread has declined from an absolute high. With the approaching summer, the power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing, providing some support to the Asian market. However, due to the high crack spread, the refinery demand is suppressed, and there will be pressure on the market after the power - generation terminal purchases decline [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term supply pressure is limited, and the market structure is stable, but it faces the contradiction of being replaced in the marine fuel demand share in the medium term and lacks the logic for continuous strength [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.34% at 2,925 yuan/ton during the day session, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.92% at 3,511 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to oscillate [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to oscillate [2]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - SC or FU - Brent). The FU market structure still has short - term support, and opportunities for high - level layout should be watched [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy is provided [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy is provided [2]. - Options: No strategy is provided [2]. Figures - There are multiple figures showing various aspects of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, including spot prices, swap contracts, month - to - month spreads, futures contract closing prices, and trading volumes in Singapore and domestic markets, with different units such as US dollars/ton and yuan/ton [3][4][6][9][14][17][28][36]