金融研究 2025年12月15日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 12 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.41%，报收 3889.35 点；深 成指上涨 0.84%，报收 13258.33 点；创业板指上涨 0.97%，报收 3194.36 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.74%， 报收 1348.88 点。市场成交 21,190 亿元，较前日增加 2,337 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+1.5%)， 电子(+1.46%)，电力设备(+1.42%)涨幅居前；商贸零售(-1.28%)，综合(-1.18%)，建筑材料(-0.47%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,681/162/2,610。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-28、-62、-124、213 亿元，分别变动+305、+169、-294、 股指期货 -181 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 84.74、54.79、25.35 与 14.64 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.98%、-7.96%、-5.76%与-5 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that U.S. copper futures prices are reaching new highs, which may lead to the best annual performance for European copper mining stocks since 2016 [1] - Citigroup analysts favor Glencore Plc as their top stock pick for 2026, expecting a 15% increase in the stock price over the next 12 months due to the company's efforts to boost copper production [1] - Oddo BHF sees Rio Tinto Group as having an attractive development roadmap in its copper business, particularly with the ramp-up of its Simandou project in Guinea, which should help increase iron ore production [1] Group 2 - Oddo mining analyst Maxime Kogge maintains a bullish outlook on mining stocks for next year, but warns that a significant slowdown in the Asian economy could negatively impact market sentiment [2] - Citic Construction's report indicates that gold and silver performed strongly last week, while other risk assets were weaker, suggesting a strong outlook for precious metals in 2025 [2] - The report outlines that the precious metals market in 2025 could be influenced by various factors, including tax changes and global economic concerns, with copper expected to be the next major commodity after gold and silver [2] Group 3 - The article lists several copper mining companies in the Hong Kong stock market, including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zijin Mining (601899), and Jiangxi Copper (600362) [3] - It also mentions companies involved in copper-clad laminates, such as Kintor Group (01888) and Kintor Holdings (00148) [3]

金融研究 2025年12月12日 星期五 金融期货早班车 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 11 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.7%，报收 3873.32 点；深成 指下跌 1.27%，报收 13147.39 点；创业板指下跌 1.41%，报收 3163.67 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.55%， 报收 1325.83 点。市场成交 18,853 亿元，较前日增加 936 亿元。行业板块方面，银行(+0.17%)，国 防军工(-0.24%)，电力设备(-0.25%)涨幅居前；综合(-4.31%)，通信(-3.14%)，房地产(-3.06%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,030/46/4,377。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-333、-231、170、394 亿元，分别变动-274、-89、+144、+220 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 89.2、67.09、29.38 与 14.43 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-12.2%、-9.47%、-6.46% ...

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 除了美国就业市场降温外，发达经济体的财政扩张倾向，可能倒逼美联储推 进降息，事实上形成一种另类的"结构性双松"。 美联储 12 月议息会议中表现出来的分歧比预期中小。从议息决议来看， 只有施密德和古尔斯比两位票委反对降息；从利率预测点阵图看，认同 本次降息或者更多降息的 FOMC 官员达到 13 位，而 9 月会议时支持今年 降息到这一水平的只有 10 位。此外，美联储还宣布了对中短期美国国债 （剩余期限不超过 3 年）的购债计划。当然，这种表面分歧的弥合可能 是妥协的结果，而促成这种妥协的压力可能来自两方面：美国就业市场 降温和发达经济体整体的财政扩张倾向。 美国就业市场降温的迹象。如此前报告提到，美国 11 月 ADP 就业数据 印证美国就业市场降温，可以推测官方的私营非农就业数据增长也应在 放缓中，10 月或 11 月不排除有减少情况（《债市测试"平衡边界"》 20251207）。 发达经济体整体的财政扩张倾向。近期美债收益率面临的上行压力主要 来自日债和欧债。日本内阁近期批准 21.3 万亿日元补充预算，占 GDP 的 比重接 ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于加息预期升温以及对财政状况的担忧，日本国债收益率近期持续走高。日本10年期国债收益率在12月8日一度飙升 至1.97%，创下自2007年以6月来的最高水平;对政策敏感的日本2年期国债收益率则在12月10日一度飙升至1.075%，创下2007年7月以来的最 高水平。截至发稿，日本10年期国债收益率报1.928%，日本2年期国债收益率报1.057%。 日本央行本月加息已基本就绪。一系列最新的经济数据、薪资增长有望再次稳健增长以及要求日本央行维持低利率的政治压力有所减弱为日 本央行的加息前景提供了支撑。 上周有报道指出，知情人士透露，日本央行已准备在本月晚些时候的政策会议上加息25个基点，将基准利率上调25个基点至0.75%——这将 是1995年以来的最高政策利率水平，前提是在此期间经济或金融市场没有发生重大冲击。知情人士称，日本央行还将表示，如果其经济展望 得以实现，将继续加息，同时对最终会将利率推高到什么程度保持谨慎。 值得一提的是，以倡导货币宽松著称的日本首相高市早苗近期对日元的过度疲软提出了警告。日本反对党加大了攻击力度，称高市早苗所 谓"负责任积极主动的财政政策"是长期利率上升和日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising global long-term bond yields, driven by concerns over persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, and the potential end of the monetary easing cycle by major central banks, leading to a "disappointment trade" across developed markets [1][6][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - Global long-term bond yields have returned to their highest levels since 2009, indicating a growing consensus that the era of monetary easing by central banks is nearing its end [3]. - Despite expectations of a third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the bond market has not reacted positively, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching multi-month highs due to investor concerns over long-term inflation and fiscal deficits [3][7]. - The re-evaluation of inflation risks and the global growth outlook under the backdrop of rising public debt and stubborn inflation pressures is shifting market focus away from the previous easing cycle that had driven stock markets to record highs [5][6]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - A "disappointment trade" is emerging as investors realize that major central banks may soon end their rate-cutting cycles, with expectations for the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan shifting towards potential rate hikes [6][9]. - The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure rose to 2.8% in September, nearly one percentage point above its target, complicating the outlook for monetary policy [7]. - Concerns over the U.S. budget deficit, projected at $1.8 trillion, and the independence of the next Federal Reserve chair are contributing to risk premiums in the U.S. Treasury yield curve [7]. Group 3: Fiscal Expansion - The surge in government debt and fiscal expansion plans are significant factors pushing up bond yields globally, with record defense orders in Germany and Japan's largest spending plan since the pandemic contributing to this trend [9]. - Market signals indicate that the pressure on borrowing costs will persist, as governments are expected to adopt more expansionary fiscal stances in the coming year [9].

金融研究 2025年12月8日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：12 月 日，A 股四大股指走强，其中上证指数上涨 0.7%，报收 5 3902.81 | | 点；深成指上涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.08%，报收 13147.68 点；创业板指上涨 1.36%，报收 3109.3 点；科创 50 指数走平，报收 | | 1326.1 | | | 点。市场成交 17,390 亿元，较前日增加 1,773 亿元。行业板块方面，非银金融(+3.5%)，有色金属 | | | | | (+2.84%)，机械设备(+2.34%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.58%)，公用事业(+0%)，交通运输(+0.07%)跌幅居 | | | | | 前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,384/93/974。沪深两市，机构、主力、 | | | | 股指期货 | 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 81、-63、-143、126 亿元，分别变动+150、+82、-149、-83 | | 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi, is pushing for a supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD) to address rising prices, but this has raised concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policy and the potential for further inflation [1][4][6]. Economic Stimulus Measures - The proposed economic stimulus plan includes tax reductions on gasoline and diesel, expanded subsidies for winter electricity and gas, and an increase in the personal income tax threshold [2][7]. - Despite these measures, real wages are not keeping pace with inflation, leading to a decline in consumer purchasing power [2][7]. Inflation and Price Increases - Japan's core consumer price index, excluding fresh food, has risen for 50 consecutive months, indicating persistent inflation [2][7]. - A report indicates that by 2025, 20,609 food items are expected to see price increases, a significant rise from 12,520 items the previous year, marking an increase of approximately 65% [2][7]. Public Sentiment and Market Reactions - Public sentiment towards the economic stimulus plan is largely negative, with many citizens believing that subsidies will only provide temporary relief and may lead to further price increases in the long term [2][7]. - Concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policy have led to a sell-off in long-term bonds, with the yield on new 10-year government bonds reaching 1.935%, the highest since July 2007 [2][8]. Fiscal Policy Concerns - Analysts warn that the expansionary fiscal policy could lead to rising bond yields, further depreciation of the yen, and increased inflation, potentially destabilizing financial markets [3][8]. - The proposed budget relies heavily on new government debt, with 11.7 trillion yen of the budget expected to be financed through new bond issuance, raising alarms about the government's fiscal responsibility [3][8].

记者手记｜高市大肆发债难纾涨价困境 日本东京大学名誉教授上野千鹤子在社交媒体表示，18.3万亿日元的补充预算中竟有11.7万亿日元 要靠新发国债筹措，真忍不住想把这届政府称作"亡国"内阁。 （新华社东京12月6日电） 新华社记者刘春燕 日本首相高市早苗日前推动内阁批准总规模达18.3万亿日元（1美元约合155日元）的补充预算 案。虽尚未获得国会批准，这一靠大规模发债筹款的补充预算已引发日本媒体和专家普遍忧虑。 日本舆论认为，高市以"落实物价对策"之名编制巨额补充预算、推出大规模经济刺激计划，"刷存 在感"是最大目的，无法让日本摆脱物价持续上涨的困境。对于债务余额占国内生产总值比重高达 240%的日本政府来说，减税、补贴等大规模财政支出计划，势必加重债务负担，加剧日元贬值， 进一步推高日本物价。 受日元贬值、进口商品价格上涨等因素影响，近年日本物价持续上涨。日本总务省报告显示，截 至今年10月，日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数已连续50个月同比上升。日本企业信用调 查公司帝国数据库日前公布的调查结果显示，2025年日本累计有20609种食品价格上涨，较去年的 12520种大幅增加约65%。 高市多次强调，物 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi predicts that copper prices will average $13,000 per ton in Q2 of next year due to supply shortages caused by U.S. stockpiling, with multiple bullish factors supporting the upward trend until 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Price Predictions - Citi's analysts forecast a 2.5% increase in global copper end-use consumption next year [4]. - Currently, copper prices have risen by 1.97% to $11,675 per ton, surpassing earlier highs this week [2]. - The copper market is expected to enter a structural shortage next year, with a significant supply gap projected over the next decade due to strong demand and limited supply [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expectation of U.S. import tariffs is causing metal flows to the U.S., leading to inventory depletion in other major regions [6]. - Global exchange copper inventories have surged to over 656,000 tons, the highest level since 2018, with about 60% stored in U.S. warehouses, indicating regional imbalances in the market [9]. - JPMorgan describes the current situation as a "more volatile and urgent bullish mid-stage" for copper prices, driven by the U.S. siphoning effect [9]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Citi emphasizes that macroeconomic and fundamental improvements will support its confidence in rising copper prices, driven by lower interest rates, U.S. fiscal expansion, European military restructuring, and energy transition [10]. - Goldman Sachs shares a long-term bullish stance based on structural factors, including strong demand in power infrastructure, AI, and defense sectors, alongside constrained mining supply [10].