Group 1: Domestic Travel Trends - During the National Day holiday, the total cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 2.432 billion, with an average of 304 million daily, reflecting a 6.2% increase compared to 2024 and a 331.03% increase compared to 2019[1] - Road travel remains the primary mode of transportation, accounting for 92.56% of total trips, with 198 million road trips recorded, a year-on-year increase of 7.34%[11] - Waterway travel has seen a significant increase, with 10.05% growth year-on-year, totaling 10.7846 million trips during the holiday[12] Group 2: Tourism and Consumption - Cross-province travel orders increased by 45% year-on-year, with orders for inter-provincial border cities rising by 58%[14] - Tourists are staying longer in the same city, with a 50% increase in visitors staying 7-8 days compared to 2024[15] - National retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in consumer spending[23] Group 3: International Risks - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant economic impacts, with estimated losses of $15 billion per week and a potential GDP growth reduction of 0.2 percentage points[32] - Political uncertainty in France following the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu may hinder fiscal reforms and impact the EU's economic recovery[36] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi, may boost market sentiment in the short term, but long-term fiscal risks remain a concern due to high debt levels[40]

Corpay驻多伦多的首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta表示，交易员越发怀疑高市早苗政府让财政刺激举措 获得通过和抵制日本央行收紧政策计划的能力，这反映出日本国内的通胀动态。现实是，日本家庭因通 胀居高不下而要求做出改变。 高市早苗表示，日本央行负责制定货币政策，但其任何决定都必须与政府目标保持一致。与此同时，欧 元下跌，因法国总理勒科尔尼周一递交了他本人及政府的辞呈。政治僵局令投资者期望的紧缩预算难以 推进，而法国不断扩大的财政赤字也加剧了市场担忧。法国总统马克龙办公室周三表示，他将在48小时 内任命新总理。 高市早苗表示，她不希望引发日元过度贬值，此言一度令日元短暂反弹，但随后又回落至日内低点。 投资平台investingLive驻多伦多的首席汇率分析师Adam Button表示，"我们确实看到日元短暂走高，至 少说明他们在关注，但我们并不清楚'过度'在她的容忍范围内意味着什么，"高市早苗补充称，"日元走 弱有利有弊。" 本周日元持续走软，因市场担忧高市早苗将推出更具扩张性的财政政策。不过，随着交易员评估她刺激 经济的空间，日元跌势有所放缓。 周五（10月10日）亚洲交易时段，美元/日元承压走跌， ...

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanna Takashi as Japan's first female president marks a significant political shift, with potential implications for the economy and financial markets [1][3]. Economic Policy - Sanna Takashi's economic stance aligns with the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, promoting "Abenomics 2.0," which combines active fiscal policy with loose monetary policy [3]. - Her plan includes eliminating temporary taxes on gasoline and diesel to reduce government revenue while increasing subsidies for healthcare and small businesses, leading to a "revenue reduction and expenditure increase" fiscal expansion [3][5]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates twice in 2024, from -0.1% to 0.25%, and further to 0.5% in early 2025, which will increase government debt servicing costs [5]. Market Reaction - Following Takashi's election, the Nikkei index surged by 4.83%, surpassing 48,000 points, reflecting market optimism regarding liquidity expansion [7]. - Conversely, the yen depreciated by 1.83% against the dollar, breaking the 150 mark for the first time since July 31, indicating market concerns about the yen's future [7][10]. International Relations - The yen's depreciation complicates U.S.-Japan relations, as U.S. Treasury Secretary has called for yen appreciation to reduce the trade deficit, while the current situation undermines the effectiveness of U.S. tariffs on Japan [10]. - Takashi's administration may reconsider previous trade agreements, potentially leading to new negotiations or adjustments to existing tariffs, which could further strain U.S.-Japan relations [10][12]. Challenges Ahead - While "Abenomics 2.0" may provide short-term boosts to the stock market, the accumulation of debt risks, increased currency volatility, and rising trade tensions with the U.S. present significant challenges for Takashi's administration [12]. - The broader implications of her policies will influence Japan's role in the Asia-Pacific economic landscape and could have lasting effects on global economic dynamics [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant surge following the election of new Liberal Democratic Party president, Sanae Takaichi, with expectations of fiscal expansion and monetary easing driving investor sentiment [4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 6, the Nikkei average index rose by 2,175.26 points, marking a 4.8% increase and reaching a record high of 47,944.76 points [2]. - This single-day increase is noted as the fourth largest since the index's inception [2]. Group 2: Political Impact - The election of Sanae Takaichi, the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party, shifted market expectations, leading to a rapid buying of Japanese stocks and selling of yen [4]. - The market had initially anticipated the election of Agriculture Minister Yoshikazu Koizumi, making Takaichi's victory a surprise that fueled optimism among investors [4]. Group 3: Sector Performance - Stocks related to Takaichi's proposed policies on defense, nuclear fusion, and space saw significant buying interest, with companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, IHI, Fujitsu, and Mitsubishi Electric reaching new highs [4]. - Cybersecurity stocks such as NEC and Trend Micro also experienced substantial price increases [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Approximately 90% of stocks in the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime market saw gains, reflecting a broad-based rally driven by investor optimism regarding potential reforms in Japan [4].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the election of Fumio Kishida as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan is leading to increased volatility in Japanese long-term government bonds, which may impact bond markets in the US and UK [1][3] - The report suggests that every 10 basis points increase in Japanese government bond yields could result in a 2 to 3 basis points rise in yields for US, German, and UK bonds [1][3] - Japan's long-term government bonds have been a bellwether for global bond markets this year, with rising yields reflecting concerns over expanding fiscal deficits [1][3] Group 2 - Fumio Kishida's victory in the LDP presidential election positions her to become Japan's first female Prime Minister, with a platform advocating for fiscal expansion and a right-leaning political stance [3] - Kishida's pro-stimulus approach is expected to lead to increased government bond issuance to fund tax cuts and economic stimulus, resulting in a significant rise in the 40-year Japanese government bond yield by 14 basis points [3][6] - The long-term bond sell-off's sustainability will depend on the evolving political landscape, with upcoming 30-year Japanese government bond auctions likely to reveal investor interest [3][6]

Group 1: Japanese Stock Market Surge - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 1800 points, an increase of more than 4%, reaching a historical high of 47627 points on October 6 [1][2] - Notable individual stock performances included Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Nippon Steel, both rising over 12%, while several other major companies saw increases of 5% to 10% [2] - The market reacted to the election of Sanae Takaichi as the first female Prime Minister of Japan, who is seen as a proponent of expansionary fiscal policies [2][3] Group 2: Economic Policies and Concerns - Takaichi's economic stance contrasts sharply with that of her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, particularly regarding "Abenomics," with a focus on economic growth through tax cuts and government investment [3] - Concerns arise regarding Japan's debt, which exceeds 250% of GDP, raising fears of potential financial risks if fiscal expansion continues [3] - Takaichi's victory introduces uncertainty in monetary policy, as she has previously avoided clear stances on interest rate hikes, which may lead the Bank of Japan to adopt a wait-and-see approach [3] Group 3: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices reached a new historical high, with spot gold hitting $3920.77 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 50% increase this year [4][5] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing U.S. government shutdowns and economic uncertainties [4][5] - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, further complicating the economic outlook and influencing investor behavior towards gold [5][6]

Core Insights - The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party signals the introduction of a new economic policy framework known as "Takaichi Economics" [1] - This policy is perceived as a continuation of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," but with a stronger emphasis on fiscal expansion [1][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring the implications of this political shift on Japan's monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and yen exchange rate [1] Economic Policy Framework - "Takaichi Economics" is structured around three main pillars, reminiscent of "Abenomics" [2] - The first pillar focuses on enhancing national crisis management capabilities and promoting economic growth [3] - The second pillar advocates for expansionary fiscal policies, emphasizing the need to raise taxes and utilize existing government funds to avoid increasing Japan's national debt [3] - The third pillar clarifies that the government will be responsible for monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan retains autonomy in selecting specific policy tools [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The policy stance of Takaichi aligns with that of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, both recognizing the current inflation as cost-push rather than demand-driven [4] - Nomura Securities maintains its forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, with a potential pause thereafter [4] - However, there are uncertainties; a rapid depreciation of the yen or a stock market rally could lead to an earlier rate hike, while fiscal expansion could hinder rate increases [4] Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - The yen is expected to face short-term selling pressure, with the dollar-yen exchange rate potentially testing the critical level of 150 [5][6] - The sustainability of the yen's weakness will depend on Takaichi's public statements regarding the independence of the central bank [7] - Any signals perceived as attempts to curb or prevent interest rate hikes could lead to further depreciation of the yen [7] Upcoming Political Events - Takaichi is expected to be nominated as Prime Minister around October 15 [8] - A significant diplomatic event is the anticipated visit of U.S. President Donald Trump from October 27 to 29, focusing on trade agreements, including Japan's $550 billion foreign direct investment [8] - The new government is expected to draft a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 in late November, which will reveal the actual scale of fiscal expansion [8]

Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown crisis is ongoing, with the House Republican leadership deciding not to return to Washington, indicating a prolonged shutdown that will impact key economic data releases [4] - Economic decisions are becoming more challenging due to the lack of accurate data, leading businesses and policymakers to make educated guesses about economic trends [4] - Despite short-term uncertainties, some analysts believe that markets have historically shown resilience to government shutdowns, with past experiences indicating potential reversals in market declines once attention shifts to other factors [5] Group 2: Japan's New Prime Minister - High-profile politician, Sanae Takaichi, has been elected as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, expected to become Japan's first female Prime Minister [7] - Takaichi advocates for fiscal expansion and a right-leaning political stance, calling for the maintenance of loose monetary policy and opposing interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [8] - Analysts predict significant impacts on the yen and Japanese government bond markets due to Takaichi's victory, with expectations of a weaker yen and a steepening yield curve [9][10] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Historical analysis indicates a calendar effect in the A-share market, with the strongest performance observed in the first five trading days after the National Day holiday, showing a median return of 2.27% and an 80% win rate [12] - The current bullish trend in China's earnings fundamentals is believed to be developing, supported by external demand and improving domestic price stability [12] - Economic forecasts suggest a "N"-shaped oscillation in the fourth quarter, with technology remaining a key focus, while resource and consumer sectors may attract funding due to favorable policies [13]

Core Viewpoint - The election of former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi as the president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party positions her as a potential first female Prime Minister, amidst Japan's economic challenges including fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, sluggish growth, and international competitiveness issues [1]. Fiscal Policy - Takaichi advocates for expansionary fiscal policies, aiming to double Japan's economic size within ten years through tax cuts, economic stimulus, and government investment, contrasting sharply with the outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's focus on stability and wealth distribution [1][2]. - Concerns arise regarding Japan's debt exceeding 250% of GDP, raising fears that continued fiscal expansion could lead to financial risks [1]. Monetary Policy - Takaichi has not clearly defined her stance on monetary policy during the election, previously opposing interest rate hikes, and emphasizes the need for collaboration between the government and the Bank of Japan to achieve demand-driven growth supported by rising wages and corporate profits [3][4]. - Market analysts suggest that her victory introduces uncertainty into monetary policy, potentially delaying interest rate hikes as the Bank of Japan may adopt a wait-and-see approach until new government policies are clarified [4]. Trade Relations - Takaichi stated she would not immediately alter the existing Japan-U.S. trade agreement but would address any issues that do not align with Japan's interests through diplomatic channels [5]. - The trade agreement, which includes a 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese exports to the U.S. and a commitment from Japan to invest $550 billion in the U.S., has been criticized for not adequately reflecting Japan's positions, indicating that negotiations may continue under her leadership [6]. - Analysts believe Takaichi's conservative political stance and experience in U.S.-Japan relations may facilitate her handling of bilateral trade issues, although uncertainties remain regarding the execution of the trade agreement and related investments [6].

据央视新闻，当地时间10月4日，日本执政党自民党总裁选举结果揭晓，高市早苗击败小泉进次郎等多名竞争对手，成功 当选自民党新一任总裁 。 由于自民党目前仍在国会保持第一大党地位， 高市早苗预计将在几天后的首相指名选举中成为日本首位女性首相。 高市早苗主张财政扩张和政治右倾立场，被视为已故首相 安倍晋三的门徒 。她呼吁保持宽松货币政策，认为日本央行不应加息。 外界认为，日本新首相将在上任不到1个月内面临重大外交考验。特朗普将在未来几周访问亚洲，可能在日本或多边会议期间与新任日本领导人会面，预计关 税及国防开支问题将成为讨论焦点。 日元和日本国债市场或面临重大冲击 经济政策方面，在当选后的首次新闻发布会上，高市早苗称需要迅速采取措施应对通胀。 尽管她在本次总裁竞选中尚未提及日本央行，但市场仍认为她倾向于宽松货币政策。 对于具体措施，高市早苗表示一种政策选项是增加对地方政府的补贴， 不排除将消费税下调作为选项。 其同时希望自民党讨论为低收入和中等收入家庭设立可退还税收抵免制度，拟在下届国会会议期间提交废除额外汽油税、降低柴油燃料成本的法案， 将优先考 虑那些见效更快的价格调控措施。 在对美贸易谈判上，高市早苗承诺履行 ...