Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to consolidate in the short term, with a trading range due to both upward and downward pressures. In the medium to long term, the policy environment is conducive to a bullish outlook for Treasury bond futures, but short - term upward momentum is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, and TS is "weak", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded with fluctuations yesterday. The latest inflation data has rebounded but remains weak, and the liquidity of the capital market is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased the expectation of monetary easing policy space, leading to a strong performance of Treasury bond futures this week. In the medium to long term, the monetary policy environment tends to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is insufficient need for a short - term interest rate cut, and the concentrated supply of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring some pressure, limiting the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5].

不过，菲央行认为，随着货币政策宽松效应逐步释放，以及公共支出速度和质量改善，国内需求有望缓 慢回升。 中新社马尼拉12月11日电 (记者 张兴龙)菲律宾中央银行11日宣布，将关键政策利率下调25个基点至 4.50%，为三年来的最低水平。这是今年以来菲央行连续第五次降息。 与此同时，隔夜存款和贷款利率分别下调至4.00%和5.00%。菲央行今年已累计下调关键政策利率100个 基点。 菲央行指出，国内经济增长前景走弱是本次降息的重要原因。受国内治理问题担忧以及全球贸易政策不 确定性影响，菲律宾商业信心持续下滑，经济前景进一步承压。 数据显示，今年第三季度，菲律宾国内生产总值同比增长4.0%，明显低于第二季度的5.5%，亦未达到 政府全年5.5%至6.5%的增长目标区间下限。 此外，通胀前景保持稳定也是本次降息的依据之一。据菲央行最新预测，菲2026年和2027年通胀预期分 别为3.2%和3.0%，较此前预测略有上调，但总体仍处可控区间。 菲央行还暗示，当前宽松周期已接近尾声，未来降息空间有限，后续政策调整将取决于经济与通胀数据 表现。(完) ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to face downward pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.76% to around 1.86% in November, an increase of nearly 10 basis points [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 4, the China Bond Composite Index fell by 0.2%, a significant drop compared to typical fluctuations [4]. - The bond market has been in a downward trend since mid-November, reaching new lows on December 4, which contradicts expectations of a year-end rally typically seen as institutions increase bond purchases [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in the 10-year government bond yield corresponds with a decline in bond prices, highlighting the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields [3]. - The recent sharp decline in the bond market is attributed to trading behaviors rather than fundamental changes in the macroeconomic environment [11][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of ultra-long bonds is expected to increase, with the issuance of special long-term government bonds projected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan by 2025, creating ongoing pressure on the market [13]. - Demand for long-duration bonds is weakening due to various factors, including banks' limitations on duration assessments and profit requirements, leading to a decrease in their willingness to hold long-term bonds [14]. - Recent regulatory changes have encouraged insurance funds to shift their investment preferences from the bond market to the stock market, further impacting demand for bonds [15]. Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank is maintaining a loose monetary policy, as indicated by its recent liquidity operations, which aim to stabilize market expectations and provide a basic liquidity guarantee for the bond market [22]. - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading operations, signal a potential "official buying" presence in the market, which could help stabilize market confidence [24]. - The overall policy direction remains supportive of a loose monetary environment, which is crucial for the bond market's long-term stability [25][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current market panic may be overextending future pessimistic expectations, and as emotions stabilize, solid policy logic will likely reassert itself in pricing [26]. - The fundamental drivers of the bond market, including economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, will continue to guide its medium to long-term direction [27].

美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 专家分析认为，受此前美国联邦政府"停摆"导致关键经济数据缺失等的影响，美联储12月的决策受到多 重困扰。 北京师范大学教授 经济学专家 万喆：这是九月重启降息周期以来的第三次连续降息，政策转向的意图 是非常明显的。12月1日起已经停止缩表，货币政策全面转向宽松。市场对降息25个基点已经有高度的 共识，真正的焦点在于会议传递的未来政策信号和内部团结度。 目前，备受关注的还有美联储的内部分歧。内部主流派认为本来这样的降息足以应对就业风险，同时能 保留政策灵活性；激进派则多次投票反对，主张更大幅度的降息，认为就业形势比官方数据更加严峻； 谨慎派则担忧降息过快可能延长通胀周期或者引发资产的泡沫。但是降息效果存在滞后性且面临全球经 济增长放缓、地缘政治风险等外部制约。 降息决策的核心矛盾还是一场"蒙眼决策"。美联储正在面临双重使命，稳定物价和实现充分就业的直接 冲突。降息理由是通胀和就业风险的显现，近期数据显示，劳动力市场出现更加明显 ...

【行情资讯】 1、商业航天加速"出海"，此前宣布 IPO 辅导的中科宇航旗下力箭一号精准送三颗国际用户卫星入轨； 2、国家药监局局长李利：将审评资源充分向"全球新"的原创性产品和突破"卡脖子"技术的国产替 代产品倾斜； 3、万科首个展期债券"22 万科 MTN004"的债权人大会今日召开，将讨论债券展期事宜； 文字早评 2025/12/11 星期四 4、Meta 全力转向闭源模型 新模型 Avocado 或于明年春季推出。 宏观金融类 期指基差比例： 股指 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 112.790 ，环比变化 0.18%；T 主力合约收于 108.030 ，环比变化 0.05%；TF 主力合约收于 105.825 ，环比变化 0.04%；TS 主力合约收于 102.456 ，环比变化 0.03%。 消息方面：1、中国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，预期 0.7%，前值 0.2%。11 月 PPI 同比下降 2.2%，预期降 2%，前值降 2.1%。2、IMF 预计，中国经济在 2025 年和 2026 年将分别增长 5.0%和 4.5%。相较 10 月《世 界经济展望》，上述预测值分别上调了 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Long-term Bonds Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the long-term bond market, particularly the super long bonds, which are currently experiencing volatility due to supply expectations and weak demand [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Interest Rates** - The sentiment in the super long bond market is negatively impacted by supply expectations and weak demand, leading to rising interest rates, especially for super long bonds [1][2]. - A short-term rebound opportunity exists, but long-term factors such as allocation strength and interest rate cut expectations limit this rebound potential [1][3]. 2. **Future Monetary Policy Expectations** - It is anticipated that monetary policy may become more accommodative in 2026, with clearer easing expectations emerging around March-April, while January-February may show less clarity [1][4]. 3. **Current Bond Recommendations** - Liquid super long bonds currently include T6, T2, and 25 ordinary government bonds [1][5]. - The 30-year old bonds, such as 25 special 5 and 25 special 6, show a yield spread of over 10 basis points, indicating holding value, but the compression speed of this spread may be slow [1][5]. 4. **Investment Strategies** - Suggested strategies include a low-duration defensive approach combined with a coupon strategy, focusing on two-year credit bonds and the potential rebound of 30-year government bonds [3][10]. - For short-term high-frequency trading, the most liquid bond is 25 special 6, while 2,502 bonds are recommended for slightly longer-term holds [8][9]. 5. **Liquidity and Future Issuance of Bonds** - The future liquidity of 2,502 bonds is uncertain, with potential issuance in 2026 estimated to reach between 250 billion to 300 billion, which could enhance its status as an active bond [6][7]. 6. **Short-term Investment Strategies** - Current market conditions favor short-term investments in three-month certificates of deposit due to favorable coupon rates [9]. - A combination of three-month and one-year certificates is recommended for better value [9]. 7. **Credit and Local Government Bonds** - For local government bonds, focus on new bonds with an implied tax rate above 4%, and for credit bonds, consider three-year secondary capital bonds and the spread with three-year national development bonds [12]. 8. **Floating Rate Bonds and Hedging Strategies** - Floating rate bonds are currently overpriced, but specific types like 25 Longfa XFL09 still hold value [13]. - A hedging strategy involving buying five-year national development bonds and shorting government bond futures could yield around 1.95% returns, providing a stable risk-return profile [13]. Additional Important Insights - The overall market environment presents unique opportunities across various bond types, including long-term government bonds and local government special bonds, which should be analyzed based on implied tax rates and regional economic conditions [15]. - The differentiation in performance among main bonds indicates a need for careful selection based on liquidity premiums and potential returns [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under some pressure and should be treated with caution [6][7]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait and see for long - entry opportunities [10]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke is weak, and investors can pay attention to short - selling and long - buying opportunities respectively [12][14][17]. - The overall surplus of ferroalloys has eased, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels after the spot losses expand [19][20]. - The crude oil price is supported, and the fuel oil price is also affected by positive factors. Both are currently on a wait - and - see basis [21][22][25]. - The demand for polyolefins has a certain improvement under the influence of policies and seasons, and it is on a wait - and - see basis [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate, and natural rubber can be considered for long - entry opportunities [29][30][32]. - PVC should focus on supply - side changes, and urea's downward space is limited [33][34][36]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, PTA is expected to fluctuate, ethylene glycol is under pressure, short - fiber may follow the cost to fluctuate, and bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate [37][38][39][41][42][43]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the consumption sustainability and the resumption of production at the mine end [44][45]. - Copper, aluminum, and zinc are expected to be strong in the short term, lead is expected to fluctuate within a range, and tin is expected to fluctuate strongly [46][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate, and soybean oil and soybean meal can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [56][59]. - Palm oil can consider long - entry on pullbacks, and rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are on a wait - and - see basis [60][61][63]. - The upward space of cotton is limited, sugar is expected to fluctuate, apples are expected to be strong, and the short - term trend of live pigs should pay attention to the supply and consumption changes. Eggs are on a wait - and - see basis, and corn and corn starch can pay attention to the far - month out - of - the - money put options [64][65][67][68][70][72][76][80]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank carried out 122.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 14.7 billion yuan. Due to the low treasury bond yield, stable economic recovery, rising core inflation, and increased market risk appetite, treasury bond futures are under pressure [5][7]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can go long [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract fell, and the silver main contract rose. The complex global environment, central bank gold - buying behavior, and the possible continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are beneficial to precious metals, which are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [10]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly pulled back. In the medium term, the demand for rebar is declining, the market will enter the off - season, the supply capacity is surplus, the inventory is high, and the price is expected to be weak. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend, and investors can short on rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly fell. The national hot - metal daily output has declined, the import volume has increased, the port inventory has risen, and the market supply - demand pattern is weak. The futures may continue to pull back, and investors can short at high levels [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The first - round price reduction of coke has been implemented, and the demand may weaken. The futures are still in a weak state, and investors can buy at low levels [16][17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts fell. The manganese ore supply has changed, the cost is rising, the output is falling, the demand is weak, and the overall surplus is easing. After the price pull - back, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot losses expand [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela. The reduction of net short positions by US funds and geopolitical factors support the oil price, and the main contract is on a wait - and - see basis [21][22][23]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose sharply. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the market is under pressure. However, the deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the strengthening of the cost - end crude oil are beneficial to the price, and the main contract is on a wait - and - see basis [24][25][26]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou declined in some parts, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. The demand for polypropylene products has a certain improvement under the influence of policies and seasons, and it is on a wait - and - see basis [27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the supply - side device changes and the demand - side recovery [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract showed mixed trends. The supply and demand have changed, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [31][32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes after the festival [33][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand of downstream products has changed, the profit has improved, and the downward space is limited [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PX load has slightly decreased, the import has decreased, and the short - term price may fluctuate and adjust. Pay attention to the crude oil changes and macro - policies [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply and demand have changed little, the processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. It is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the oil price [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply is increasing, the inventory is accumulating, the demand support is limited, and it is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand changes little, and it may follow the cost to fluctuate. Pay attention to the cost and macro - policies [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract fell. The raw material price support is limited, the load is stable, the export growth has slowed down, and it is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate [43]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Pay attention to the consumption sustainability and the resumption of production at the mine end [44][45]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell slightly. The macro - economic data in the US is not as expected, increasing the possibility of interest rate cuts. The copper supply is expected to tighten, the consumption is weak, and the price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, but beware of pull - backs [46][47]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell slightly. The alumina supply is in surplus, the electrolytic aluminum supply increment is limited, the consumption enters the off - season, and the price is expected to be strong before the situation changes [48][49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee has fallen, the supply is decreasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [51][52]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell slightly. The lead concentrate processing fee has fallen, the production enthusiasm of smelters may be affected, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [53][54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell. The nickel ore price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is relatively high, and the price is expected to fluctuate [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal main contracts fell. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is basically completed, the supply pressure exists, the inventory is high, the demand has a certain improvement, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price fell. The Chinese import of US soybeans is uncertain, the Indonesian policy may change, the Malaysian palm oil inventory may rise, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level. It can be considered to go long on pullbacks [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Canadian rapeseed production has increased, the domestic import of rapeseed - related products has changed, the inventory of rapeseed meal has increased slightly, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased. It is on a wait - and - see basis [62][63]. Cotton - The domestic and foreign cotton prices showed different trends. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, and the domestic cotton is in a bumper harvest, with weak demand and limited upward space [64][65][66]. Sugar - The domestic and foreign sugar prices rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is in the off - season, the Indian sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic sugar production is increasing, and the import is expected to be high. The price is expected to fluctuate [67][68][69]. Apples - The domestic apple futures fell. The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, the production has decreased, and the price is expected to be strong [70][71]. Live Pigs - The live pig price has changed regionally. The supply and demand situation has changed, and investors should pay attention to the supply of farms and the consumption changes after the temperature drop. Consider closing the remaining short positions [72][73]. Eggs - The egg price has changed slightly. The egg supply is at a high level, but the supply - side improvement is offset by weak demand. It is on a wait - and - see basis [74][75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn and corn starch main contracts fell. The transportation of corn in the Northeast is difficult, the supply pressure exists, the import may increase in the future, the demand has a slight increase, and investors can pay attention to the far - month out - of - the - money put options. Corn starch may follow the corn trend [77][78][80].

澳洲联储主席米歇尔·布洛克宣布，一段被缩短的降息周期已经结束，政策制定者正在评估通胀的回升 是否需要延长利率暂停期，还是转向紧缩。 周二，在委员会做出普遍预期的维持现金利率在 3.6%不变的决定后，布洛克表示物价风险已"偏向上 行"，导致债券收益率飙升至 13 个月高点。 布洛克告诉记者："我认为在可预见的未来，不会出现降息。" 她表示："问题在于，是就此延长暂停 期，还是有可能加息。我无法给出概率，但我认为这是委员会在新的一年里将密切关注的两件事。" 加拿大皇家银行(RBC)澳大利亚首席经济学家 Su-Lin Ong 表示："所有自上次委员会会议以来公布的数 据都意外上行，因此阻止澳洲联储加息的责任落在了数据上。澳洲联储愿意等待更多数据，但进一步的 上行意外将使其面临挑战。" 澳洲联储委员会周二一致同意连续第三次会议维持利率不变，此前它在 2 月至 8 月期间实施了 75 个基 点的降息，其宽松行动晚于其他国家央行。 在大洋彼岸的美国，交易员正在加大押注美联储将在本周晚些时候实施第三次连续降息，此前总统特朗 普施压要求采取更宽松的政策，且私人数据显示就业市场正在走软。 在澳洲联储主席发表了鹰派指引后，澳元上 ...

这些分析师称，即将到来的美联储主席换届也构成一个风险，因为市场将对任何新的领导层进行评估。 美国联邦公开市场委员会也将发布季度《经济预测摘要》，其中将包含对2026年及以后利率的看法，这 可能会证实该委员会内部近期的意见分歧。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：刘明亮 BNY的分析师在一份报告中称，市场已充分反映美联储本月降息的预期，与此同时，认为此次降息将 被定性为偏紧缩的共识正日益增强。 这些分析师称，这意味着进一步的货币政策宽松将取决于2026年3月和6月出现更疲软的数据或更低的通 胀。 BNY的分析师在一份报告中称，市场已充分反映美联储本月降息的预期，与此同时，认为此次降息将 被定性为偏紧缩的共识正日益增强。 这些分析师称，这意味着进一步的货币政策宽松将取决于2026年3月和6月出现更疲软的数据或更低的通 胀。 这些分析师称，即将到来的美联储主席换届也构成一个风险，因为市场将对任何新的领导层进行评估。 美国联邦公开市场委员会也将发布季度《经济预测摘要》，其中将包含对2026年及以后利率的看法，这 可能会证实该委员会内部近期的意见分歧。 BNY的分析师称："我们预计，对于2026年的政策 ...

百度图片 翻开央行操作记录本，这次有三个细节值得玩味：一是期限拉长到3个月，远超往常的1个月；二是利率维持2.5%不变，打破降息预期；三是罕见采用多重 价位中标，暗示商业银行对中长期资金需求旺盛。这种操作手法，像极了2019年LPR改革前的预调微调。 流动性闸门突然开大，背后是两组矛盾数据在角力。一边是9月CPI同比仅涨0.8%，PPI连续12个月负增长，企业实际融资成本高达5.2%，经济通缩压力肉眼 可见。另一边却是人民币汇率跌破7.3，中美10年期国债利差倒挂160个基点，制约了传统降息空间。央行这招MLF超额续作，相当于在汇率维稳和稳增长之 间走了个平衡木。 历史不会简单重复，但总押着相似韵脚。2020年4月央行也曾突然投放9000亿MLF，随后两个月内降准、降息、再贷款组合拳鱼贯而出，催生了那轮小牛 市。更近的案例是2023年8月，MLF净投放1910亿后，9月立即降准0.25个百分点。这次2000亿净投放，会不会是新一轮宽松的探路石？ 细看资金流向图会发现，这2000亿不是撒胡椒面。央行明确定调要"支持股市稳定运行"，结合金融监管总局要求险资30%新增保费入市，证监会推动长线资 金进场，三股力量正在 ...