Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in precious metal prices amid global economic uncertainty, leading to increased criminal activities targeting gold and silver concentrates [1][6]. Group 1: Criminal Activities - A truck carrying 33 tons of gold and silver concentrates was hijacked in Mexico, with the truck recovered but the trailer still missing [2][5]. - The stolen precious metals belong to Grupo Minero Bacis, and the incident reflects a rise in highway robberies in Mexico, occurring approximately every 50 minutes [6]. Group 2: Precious Metal Prices - In the past two weeks, silver prices have risen significantly, with international silver futures surpassing $38 per ounce, marking a nearly 14-year high [3][6]. - Domestic silver prices have also increased, with spot T+D prices closing at 9028 yuan per kilogram on July 11, while gold prices remained stable, closing at 769.30 yuan per gram [6]. Group 3: Company Performance - Companies like Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, and Western Gold have forecasted substantial profit increases for the first half of 2025, with Zhongjin Gold and Western Gold expecting over 50% growth [4][8]. - Hunan Gold anticipates a net profit of 613 million to 701 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - Global gold ETFs saw an increase of $38 billion in the first half of the year, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, and China's gold reserves rising for the eighth consecutive month [9]. - Despite a positive outlook for gold, gold stock ETFs experienced a decline of over 2% in the past week, with major holdings like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold dropping more than 5% [9].

Group 1 - Spot gold increased by 1% during the day, reaching $3357.19 per ounce [1] - Spot silver rose nearly 2% during the day, currently priced at $37.71 per ounce [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing up 0.49% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing up 0.22% [1] - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.49%, and the main contract of London Gold decreased by 0.50%. The main contract of Comex gold increased by 0.31% [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, US stagflation risk, and strong employment suppressing interest rate cuts [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump's new tariff measures on 14 countries, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, 50% on copper, and up to 200% on drugs [1] - **Monetary**: The Fed's meeting minutes show low support for a July interest rate cut, and strong employment rules out the possibility of a near - term rate cut. The market expects the next rate cut in September, with the total rate cut space in 2025 falling back to around 50 basis points [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63%, and the main contract of London Silver decreased by 1.74%. The main contract of Comex silver decreased by 0.27% [6] - **Core Logic**: Gold price is the anchor for silver price, with reduced capital positions and slightly increased visible inventory [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is - 0.50%, and the unemployment rate is 4.10% [10] - **Other Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57%, the US dollar index is 97.55, and the geopolitical risk index is 132.88 [8][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for future interest rate changes [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Due to the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the possibility of the Fed still cutting interest rates, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to take long positions on dips. The report suggests paying attention to the support and resistance levels of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold futures active contract closed at 776.22 yuan/g, up 4.92 yuan from the previous day; spot Shanghai gold (T+D) closed at 771.51 yuan/g, up 3.71 yuan. COMEX futures active contract closed at 3346.40 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 202,143 lots and an open interest of 310,175 lots. London gold spot closed at 3314.75 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.15 tons to 947.66 tons [1]. - **Important Information**: The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking the 8th consecutive month of increases, with the pace of increase recovering. Trump's first - wave of tax hikes on 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, ranging from 25% to 40%, will take effect on August 1st. The EU may be close to an agreement. Although consumer inflation has rebounded significantly, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is almost zero due to the higher - than - expected and previous - value 147,000 new non - farm payrolls in the US in June, but the expected time for rate cuts remains September/October/December [1]. Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver futures active contract closed at 8953.00 yuan/10g, with a trading volume of 261,611 lots and an open interest of 338,144 lots. Spot Shanghai silver (T+D) had a trading volume of 549,594 lots and an open interest of 3,325,506 lots. COMEX futures active contract closed at 36.93 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 202,143 lots and an open interest of 310,175 lots. London silver spot closed at 36.78 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holdings increased to 14,935.15 tons [1]. - **Important Information**: The US House of Representatives' version of the "Great Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars, and the fiscal deficit expansion may exceed 3 trillion dollars. Trump's tariff policy remains in the spotlight [1]. Other Markets - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was at 510.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude was at 70.03 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 68.18 dollars/barrel [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were at 79,270 yuan/ton, LME copper cash was at 9,665 dollars/ton, and Shanghai rebar was at 3,065 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,473.1271, the S&P 500 was at 6,225.5200, the UK FTSE 100 was at 8,806.5300, the French CAC40 was at 7,723.4700, the German DAX was at 24,073.6700, the Nikkei 225 was at 39,587.6800, and the South Korean Composite Index was at 3,114.9500 [1]. Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and Germany (France) in June continued to rise, and the CPI annual rate was close to expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: Cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, and continued to reduce holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The CPI (core CPI) annual rate in May was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The August rate - cut expectation is rising, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: Raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark rate to 0.5%. It may start to reduce quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of interest rate hikes by the end of 2025 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated significantly, first declining and then rising. Last week's better - than - expected US non - farm payroll data supported the Fed to remain on hold, and the market abandoned bets on a rate cut in July. The market focus shifted to the upcoming changes in US tariff policies. Precious metals continued to oscillate, waiting for the outcome of tariff negotiations, and may fluctuate until the deadline [1] Summarized According to Related Content Tariff Policy Changes - Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing a 25% tariff on imported goods from Japan and South Korea starting from August 1st, and 25% - 40% tariffs on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, etc. An additional 10% tariff will be imposed on any country aligning with the anti - US policies of BRICS countries. The deadline for reciprocal tariff suspension was extended to August 1st. White House officials stated that specific country tariffs and industry tariffs will not be superimposed [1] - The EU claimed that trade negotiations with the US have made good progress. The Portuguese Finance Minister believed that the US and the EU are likely to reach a very low - tariff agreement, possibly below 10%. A source said that the EU is seeking an agreement with the US to offset the trade deficit in the automotive sector and may obtain basic tariff exemptions on aircraft and spirits [2] Fed - related Statements - Kevin Warsh, a top candidate for Fed chair, called for a rate cut to a lower level. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro also urged the Fed's board of governors to intervene in Powell's stance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum are increasingly favored by investors due to their strong inflation resistance and safe-haven characteristics in uncertain global economic conditions [1] Group 1: Channels for Precious Metal Investment Account Opening - Domestic precious metal investment accounts are primarily opened through three main channels: banks, futures companies, and exchange member units [2] - Banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank offer account precious metal trading services suitable for low-risk investors [2] - Futures companies require opening accounts through regulated firms for trading gold and silver futures listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2] - Exchange member units, such as the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange, provide trading services for physical gold and London gold, necessitating a thorough verification of regulatory qualifications [2] Group 2: Recommended Safe Account Opening Platforms - **Wanzhou Gold Industry**: Operates under Hong Kong Gold Exchange AA Class Member No. 141, with an average daily trading volume exceeding $5 billion and a transparent trading flow query function [4] - **Jinrong China**: Also under Hong Kong Gold Exchange AA Class Member No. 84, supports 24/7 trading with a minimum entry of $50 and has been rated as "Best Transparent Trading Platform" for three consecutive years [5] - **Huatai Securities**: Has over 8 million monthly active users and integrates various features including precious metal market data and educational courses [6] - **CITIC Construction Investment Futures**: Offers a self-developed app with a simulated trading competition attracting over 100,000 participants annually [9] - **Guotai Junan Futures**: An AA-rated futures company with a CTP trading system that supports algorithmic trading and has a risk reserve fund exceeding 3 billion yuan [12][13] Group 3: Account Opening Guidelines and Cautions - Investors should be wary of high-yield traps, as platforms claiming "guaranteed returns" or "risk-free arbitrage" are often scams [15] - It is crucial to verify the deposit and withdrawal rules of platforms, ensuring that transactions are conducted through bank channels with clear timelines [16] - New investors are advised to start with low leverage (≤1:50) to mitigate the risk of liquidation due to market fluctuations [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and persistent geopolitical risks may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking eight consecutive months of increases with a recovery in the pace [1]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is slim, but the expected time points for rate cuts are September, October, or December [1]. Silver - The US House of Representatives passed the "Big Beautiful" bill, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by over $3 trillion. Trump's tariff policy remains in effect [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England's key interest rate decreased by 25 basis points in May, and the expectation of rate cuts in August is rising, with 2 - 3 possible rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - For investors, it is recommended to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks. For London gold, focus on support around $3,000 - $3,200 and resistance around $3,500 - $3,700; for Shanghai gold, support around 730 - 750 and resistance around 840 - 900. For London silver, support around $31 - $34 and resistance around $38 - $40; for Shanghai silver, support around 8,300 - 8,500 and resistance around 8,900 - 9,100 [1].

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月8日（周二）早盘盘初上涨0.51%报771.48元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月8日（周二）早盘盘初上涨0.14%报8895.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

| Millio | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落。上周美国6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率更是与预期反向下 降0.1个百分点至4.1%. 就业市场保持韧性令市场放弃七月降息押注。其他多项数据来看,ISM制造业 PMI49、职位空缺上升至去年11月以来最高水平，周度初请失业金人数维持低位均体现经济并未显著走弱, 周内鲍威尔在活动中讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心，下一步行动将完全取决于数据 表现。在地缘风险阶段性降温，经济数据压制降息预期后，本周市场关注点转向即将于7月9日到期的美国对 等关税政策变化,周五特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起开始致函贸易伙伴,设定新的单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum prices, which has outpaced gold, is driven by a combination of market dynamics and investor behavior, but it is essential to recognize the fundamental differences between platinum and gold as investment assets [1][4][10]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Since May 15, 2025, platinum prices have skyrocketed, with a weekly increase of 10% and a total rise of over 50% by June 27, 2025, reaching over 320 yuan per gram [1]. - In contrast, gold prices have experienced volatility, initially rising to historical highs before a significant drop, leading many investors to seek alternatives like platinum [1][10]. - Chinese customs data indicates that prior to the price surge, imports of platinum reached a record high of 11.5 tons in April 2025, reflecting increased demand from jewelers and investors [1][10]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The current platinum market is characterized by a mix of speculative investment and a shift in demand from gold, as some investors view platinum as a substitute for gold amidst rising gold prices [4][10]. - The allure of platinum is further fueled by its historical price relationship with gold, where it once traded at a premium, leading to renewed interest from seasoned investors [5][10]. - However, the market is also plagued by issues of counterfeit products, with reports of fake platinum jewelry circulating, which has raised concerns among consumers [1][15][16]. Group 3: Fundamental Differences Between Platinum and Gold - Unlike gold, which has established itself as a global reserve asset, platinum's financial attributes are limited due to its concentrated supply, with South Africa and Russia controlling a significant portion of global reserves [5][6][10]. - The industrial demand for platinum, primarily used in automotive catalysts, has declined due to the rise of electric vehicles, which further complicates its investment appeal [5][6][10]. - Historical trends show that platinum's price is highly sensitive to economic conditions, with past downturns linked to industrial demand drops, contrasting with gold's status as a safe-haven asset during economic turmoil [6][10].