ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点机 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/10/30 | 3973. 16 | 47.85 | 3985. 80 | 47.61 | 912. 16 | 11253.00 | 908. 84 | 11210.00 | | (本表数 据来源: | 2025/10/29 | 397 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have long held a significant position in global asset allocation due to their unique safe-haven properties, offering various investment channels for investors to participate flexibly and conveniently [1] Group 1: Physical Precious Metal Trading Channels - Physical precious metals primarily include gold and silver, representing the oldest form of investment in this category with global liquidity [3] - Investors can trade physical gold and silver through legitimate channels such as commercial banks, branded gold shops, and qualified online precious metal platforms [3] Group 2: Banking Precious Metal Business - The banking sector's precious metal investments mainly consist of "paper gold" and "paper silver" account products, typically issued by commercial banks with strong creditworthiness [4] - Due to increased price volatility in precious metals, many banks have issued risk warnings and suspended new account openings and regular investment plans for certain precious metal businesses [4] Group 3: Electronic Trading Platforms for Precious Metals - Electronic trading encompasses spot gold, spot silver, and gold and silver futures, allowing investors to conduct two-way trading based on price trends, often with leverage [5] - Spot gold and silver are among the most actively traded electronic products globally, with specific classes of members in the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange providing trading services [5] - The platform "Bailihao" has a long operational history in financial services, covering multiple global markets and emphasizing efficiency and security in fund transactions, regulated by institutions such as ASIC and SCB [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in gold prices has led to a collective increase in Hong Kong's gold stocks, with significant gains observed across various companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold stocks in Hong Kong experienced notable increases, with China Silver Group rising by 7%, Zijin Gold International by over 6%, and Zijin Mining by nearly 4% [1] - Other companies such as China National Gold International and Zhaojin Mining saw increases of 3.3%, while Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold, and Lingbao Gold all rose by over 1% [1] Group 2: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices in Asia rose, with spot gold increasing by 0.5% to $3,949.47 per ounce, following a dip after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech [1] - Powell's remarks suggested that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, which may limit the extent of gold price increases [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Metals Focus, the overall trend for precious metals is expected to be strong in 2025, with gold prices having risen 66% year-to-date and reaching a peak of over $4,380 per ounce [1] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt, a weakening dollar, increased gold purchases by central banks, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts are driving the bullish outlook for gold prices, which are anticipated to continue rising and set new records in 2026 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from a low level. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.55%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.91%. The short - term outlook for precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium term and a step - by - step upward trend in the long term [3]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, there may be a meeting between China and the US, easing the risk of a trade war. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is being realized. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, although the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical fluctuations still exist. Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer confidence in October dropped to a six - month low, and the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [4]. - **Data**: Various data on gold, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [5]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight increases in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the recent visible inventory of silver [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [7]. - **Data**: Various data on silver, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: Data such as the federal funds target rate, discount rate, reserve balance rate, total assets of the Fed, M2, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous week [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Key indicators including various interest - rate spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor - market data, real - estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, and trade data are provided with their changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of different countries, the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves, the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, and other related data are presented [13]. - **Risk - Aversion and Commodity Attributes**: Data on the geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB are provided with their changes [13]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectations**: The expected probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates are presented [14].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with gold down 4.20% closing at 901.38 yuan and silver down 3.32% closing at 11049 yuan, attributed to profit-taking after previous price surges and geopolitical factors influencing market sentiment [3] - The Shanghai gold futures reported a price of 910.88 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.55%, opening at 895.12 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 911.98 yuan and a low of 893.64 yuan during the trading session [1] - The European leaders' call for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations has contributed to the recent price adjustments in precious metals, indicating that while short-term corrections are occurring, the long-term trends remain intact [3] Group 2 - The ADP has initiated weekly employment data releases to better track the U.S. labor market, with the first report indicating an average increase of 14,250 private sector jobs over the four weeks ending October 11 [2] - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a procedural vote on the bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, marking the 13th attempt without reaching the necessary 60 votes, which suggests ongoing uncertainty in fiscal policy [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the initial consensus was reached in the economic and trade consultations between China, the US, and Malaysia, and Wang Yi's phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, market uncertainty was further alleviated, leading to a significant decline in safe - haven demand and continuous profit - taking by investors, which was negative for precious metal prices. The easing of physical tightness in London also put pressure on silver prices. In the short term, precious metal prices may still be under pressure due to the cooling of safe - haven demand, but the further decline space is relatively limited as the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October and the US government shutdown continues. In the long term, the long - term upward logic of precious metals has not reversed, and investors can consider buying on dips [6]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. With the continuation of central bank gold purchases, the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Price Changes**: On October 28, 2025, compared with October 27, 2025, London gold spot price dropped 3.4% to $3939.85 per ounce, London silver spot price fell 3.6% to $46.58 per ounce, COMEX gold price decreased 3.3% to $3955.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver price declined 3.6% to $46.60 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2512 dropped 3.5% to 901.38 yuan per gram, AG2512 fell 3.0% to 11049 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased 3.7% to 898.14 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) declined 3.0% to 11035 yuan per kilogram [4]. - **Spread and Ratio Changes**: From October 27 to October 28, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased 107.7% to - 3.24 yuan per gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased 22.2% to - 14 yuan per kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased 80.5% to 0.61 yuan per gram, and the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) decreased 10.6% to - 845 yuan per kilogram. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased 0.5% to 81.58, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased 0.3% to 84.90 [4]. Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: From October 24 to October 27, 2025, the position of gold ETF - SPDR decreased 0.77% to 1038.92 tons, and the position of silver ETF - SLV decreased 0.51% to 15340.79428 tons. The non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position increased 9.43% to 66059 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased 0.13% to 266749 contracts. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver increased 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position decreased 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased 1.43% to 52276 contracts [4]. - **Inventory Data**: On October 28, 2025, compared with October 27, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 87015 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory increased 1.51% to 657427 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.49% to 38687475 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.88% to 492557282 troy ounces [4]. Other Related Market Data - **Other Market Index Changes**: From October 27 to October 28, 2025, NYMEX crude oil price decreased 0.04%, the US dollar index remained unchanged, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.25%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased 3.54%, the VIX index decreased 0.12%, the S&P 500 index increased 1.23%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased 0.18% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Short - term Outlook**: After the recent significant adjustment of precious metal prices, in the short term, they may still be under pressure due to the cooling of safe - haven demand, but the further decline space is relatively limited. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October, and the US government shutdown continues. In the long term, the long - term upward logic of precious metals has not reversed, and investors can consider buying on dips [6]. - **Medium - to - Long - term Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. With the continuation of central bank gold purchases, the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will boost the precious metal prices, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. Investors should watch for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold them cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4000 and 4150, with support moving down to the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 48 and 50 - 50.5, with support at 46 and strong support at 44 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review On Tuesday, precious metal prices continued to adjust, showing a V - shaped trend. Global trade easing and the alleviation of silver spot liquidity squeeze affected the market. Trump's intervention in the Fed enhanced gold's investment appeal. The surrounding US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yield declined, US stocks rose, European stocks were mixed, Bitcoin pulled back, the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index adjusted significantly, and crude oil fell. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3968.1 per ounce, down 1.28%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.14 per ounce, up 0.78%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 901.38 yuan per gram, down 4.2%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11049 yuan per kilogram, down 3.32% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings Interest rate cut expectations fluctuated slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October was 0.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 99.5%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 8%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 91.6%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 0.4%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 3.8%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 48.1%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 47.9%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.94 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 131.22 tons to 15209.57 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 9.8 tons to 657.4 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons as of the week ending October 24 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus In terms of data, focus on the preliminary value of US Q3 GDP on Thursday and US September PCE data on Friday. For events, pay attention to the Fed FOMC's interest rate decision at 02:00 on Thursday, Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 02:30, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 21:15 on Thursday. Also, watch the APEC leaders' summit in South Korea, Trump's visits to Japan (until October 29) and South Korea [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal Price and Inventory Tables - **Price Table**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 901.38 yuan per gram, down 3.51%; SGX gold TD was at 896.69 yuan per gram, down 3.61%; CME gold main contract was at $3968.1 per ounce, down 0.72%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11049 yuan per kilogram, down 3.03%; SGX silver TD was at 10996 yuan per kilogram, down 3.08%; CME silver main contract was at $47.14 per ounce, up 0.66%. SHFE - TD gold was at 4.69 yuan per gram, up 21.82%; SHFE - TD silver was at 53 yuan per kilogram, up 226.67%. CME gold - silver ratio was 84.1769, down 1.38% [6][7]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1196.0785 tons, down 0.6%. SHFE gold position was 175916 lots, down 2.71%; SPDR gold position was 1038.92 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 657.427 tons, up 1.51%; CME silver inventory was 15180.4568 tons, down 0.91%; SGX silver inventory was 905.235 tons, down 13.84%. SHFE silver position was 321876 lots, down 5.8%; SLV silver position was 15209.570998 tons, down 0.86% [16]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary The US dollar index was at 98.7245, down 0.09%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.0963, down 0.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was at 47706.37 points, up 0.34%. WTI crude oil spot was at $60.15 per barrel, down 1.89%. LmeS copper 03 was at $11029.5 per ton, up 0.26%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 3.99%, down 0.5%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 1.71%, down 1.16%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.52%, down 1.89% [21].

Price Fluctuations - The current gold prices vary significantly among different jewelry brands, with prices ranging from 1086 CNY to 1227 CNY per gram [1] - Platinum prices are relatively stable, mostly around 560 CNY per gram, with some variations [1] Recovery Prices - The recovery prices for gold vary based on purity, with 99.9% purity gold at 918 CNY per gram, 22K gold at 808 CNY, and 18K gold at 666 CNY [3] - Platinum recovery price is 331 CNY per gram, while palladium and silver recovery prices are 284 CNY and 9.1 CNY per gram respectively [3] Reasons for Price Decline - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including changes in international oil prices, the US dollar index, and stock market fluctuations affecting gold's safe-haven demand [4] - Increased supply of physical gold and changes in investor expectations regarding interest rates and inflation also contribute to the downward pressure on gold prices [4] Purchasing Tips - Consumers are advised to be cautious with price fluctuations and avoid impulsive buying [6] - It is recommended to choose reliable brands and understand the purity and weight of gold before purchasing [6] Investment in Precious Metals - Besides gold, platinum, palladium, and silver are also worth considering for investment due to their unique characteristics and market demands [7] - Platinum is noted for its stability and industrial demand, while palladium's demand is more volatile [7] Market Perspective - The recent price drops in gold and platinum should be viewed as normal market fluctuations rather than signs of a crisis [9] - Consumers should focus on long-term trends and market information when considering investments in precious metals [9]

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨吴桂兴 北京时间10月28日晚， 美股三大指数小幅上涨，均刷新历史新高。 英特尔盘中触及41.67美元，再创新高。 Paypal盘前涨幅扩大至14%，目前涨超10%。据财联社报道，Paypal据称与OpenAI达成合作协议，将支付钱包嵌入到ChatGPT中。 同样有AI大消息的还有高通，昨日其宣布推出两款AI芯片挑战英伟达，股价一度涨约20%，目前回调近4%。（详情： 高通挑战英伟达 ） 多只热门中概股下跌，纳斯达克金龙跌约1.7%，乐信、健永生技、嘉楠科技、奇富科技跌超15%，阿里、拼多多、京东、百度等均跌超1%。 | | | 现货白银收复日内所有跌幅，回升至46.97美元/盎司，此前一度大跌近3%。 对于贵金属的大跌，目前市场多数分析认为上涨形态还没有被破坏， 更多是急涨之后的"深蹲"。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪的观点 表示，支撑金价的逻辑并没有被破坏，近期黄金出现剧烈调整属于暂时盘整，盘整后有望继续震荡上行，并不是见顶信号， 国际金价明年或将 上升至4500美元/盎司上方。 （ 黄金7天狂泻500美元，专家：倒车接人 ） 苹果盘初总市值一度首次升破4万亿美元 ，成为继英伟达和 ...

Core Insights - Precious metal investment has become a significant asset allocation option due to global inflation pressures and geopolitical fluctuations [1] - Hong Kong, as a financial hub in Asia, attracts global investors with its robust regulatory framework and mature trading ecosystem [1] Group 1: Standards for Selecting Precious Metal Trading Platforms - Regulatory qualifications are the primary consideration, with the AA license from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange being the gold standard [2] - Security mechanisms for funds are crucial, with reputable platforms storing client funds in independent third-party bank accounts [2] - Transparency in trading costs directly impacts investment returns, with quality platforms typically maintaining a spread of $0.2 to $0.5 per ounce for London gold [2] - Technical capabilities and system stability are vital, especially during extreme market conditions, with investors encouraged to conduct stress tests using demo accounts [2] Group 2: Top Ten Regulated Precious Metal Trading Platforms in Hong Kong 1. **Manzhou Gold**: Holds AA license, member of the Standard Gold Group, offers a range of products, and employs MT5 trading system with high security measures [4][5][6] 2. **Jinrong China**: Established in 2010, holds AA license, uses MT4/MT5 systems, and maintains zero violation record [7] 3. **Rongsheng Gold**: Holds AA license, boasts a 99.97% order execution success rate, and low slippage [9] 4. **Hansheng Group**: Holds AA license, utilizes blockchain technology for client information security [10] 5. **Xinshi Gold**: Recognized for best trading platform and customer service, strictly regulated under Hong Kong law [11] 6. **Asia Pacific Gold**: Holds multiple international qualifications, offers MT4/APP support, and features intelligent risk control [13] 7. **Mingde Financial**: Focuses on customer experience with efficient fund transfers and instant market data [14] 8. **Wanzhaofeng**: Operates under compliance, known for smooth trading systems and strong customer service [15] 9. **Fuchang Gold**: Renowned for risk control capabilities and transparent operations, providing daily macro data analysis [16] 10. **Jufeng Gold**: Introduced blockchain-based trading systems, enhancing transaction credibility and risk control [17] Conclusion - The ten platforms listed have demonstrated outstanding performance in compliance, security, and service quality, allowing investors to choose based on their risk tolerance and trading habits [17]