Group 1 - The euro is experiencing widespread weakness against multiple currencies, including the US dollar, British pound, and Japanese yen, indicating significant selling pressure [3] - UBS analysts report that the EU's exports to the US are facing an increase in the average weighted tariff rate from approximately 1.5% to 15.2%, which could lead to a decrease in the eurozone's economic growth rate by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points over the next year [3] - French Prime Minister François Bérou expresses that the recent trade agreement with the US represents a "dark day for Europe," reflecting deeper dissatisfaction within the eurozone, particularly in industries most affected by the tariff increases [3][4] Group 2 - The silver market opened at $38.137, experienced a brief rise to $38.338, and then saw a strong pullback, with the daily low reaching $37.888 before closing at $38.156, forming a long-legged doji candlestick pattern [5] - Current trading of silver is around $38.16 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.04%, with a daily high of $38.18 and a low of $38.04, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1][5]

2025年07月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，施压价格 | 4 | | 锌：震荡走弱 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：情绪回落 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观预期定方向，基本面限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，现实面仍有待修复 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：突破上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | ...

协议降低了市场对全球经济衰退的担忧，推动风险资产吸引力上升，股市和美元受提振，标普500指数连续第六个交易日创收盘新高，纳斯达克指数也创历 史纪录。 欧盟承诺在特朗普任期内进行高达7500亿美元的战略采购，包括6000亿美元的美国军事装备，进一步刺激市场乐观情绪，降低对黄金的避险需求，使金价承 压。 黄金周一（7月28日）早盘低开上涨，到欧盘前最高上涨至3345附近，欧盘承压震荡，美盘开始加速下跌，最跌至3302/3301区域，尾盘震荡反弹3319附近， 日线收出一根上影线长于下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、美欧贸易协议的影响 7月27日，美国与欧盟达成框架贸易协议，将对欧盟商品征收的进口关税定为15%，远低于此前威胁的30%税率，避免了更大规模贸易战，为全球市场注入 确定性。 2、中美贸易谈判的不确定性 7月28日，中美高级经济官员在斯德哥尔摩重启关税会谈，旨在延长贸易休战期90天，但美国贸易代表称预计不会有重大突破，谈判重点在监督和履行现有 承诺。 中国面临8月12日与特朗普政府达成持久关税协议的最后期限，双方核心问题仍未解决，市场不确定性存在，一定程度支撑黄金。 3、市场对美联储利率政策的预期 美联储将 ...

周二(7月29日)亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅上涨，现报3314美元/盎司附近。黄金价格周一(7月28日)跌到近 三周低点，主要原因是美国和欧盟周末达成贸易协议，提振美元和风险情绪。此外，美国总统特朗普称 将向大多数国家征15%至20%"全球关税"，与上周的表态有所不同。 美元指数上升到一周高点，让黄金对持有其他货币的投资者来说，变得相对昂贵。 现货黄金周一收盘重挫22.83美元，跌幅近0.7%，报3314.34美元/盎司。金价盘中曾触及7月9日以来最 低。 美国与欧盟在7月27日达成了一项具有里程碑意义的框架贸易协议，将对欧盟商品征收的进口关税定为 15%，是特朗普威胁税率的一半，减轻了爆发更大贸易战争的担忧。 这一协议有效避免了美欧之间爆发更大规模的贸易战，为全球市场注入了确定性。协议不仅降低了市场 对全球经济衰退的担忧，还推动了风险资产的吸引力，股市和美元因此受到提振。美国标普500指数连 续第六个交易日创下收盘新高，纳斯达克指数也在震荡交易中创下历史纪录，显示出投资者对风险资产 的热情高涨。 美国与日本上周也达成协议。此外，美国和中国官员本周在瑞典斯德哥尔摩恢复谈判，目标是把休战期 限再往后延长90天。 跟 ...

Group 1 - The recently announced US-EU trade agreement has faced strong criticism from Germany and France, with warnings that it could harm the EU economy and lead to increased inflation [1][2] - The agreement, described by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the "largest trade agreement in history," covers nearly 44% of global GDP and aims to prevent a transatlantic trade war [2] - The agreement secures a lower tariff rate for the EU compared to the threatened 30% tariffs by the US, but the new 15% tariff is still three times higher than the average tariffs prior to Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement in April [3] Group 2 - European stock markets reacted negatively to the agreement, with the German DAX index falling by 1% and the French CAC40 index down by 0.4%, as initial optimism was overshadowed by concerns over the EU's economic outlook [3] - The automotive sector, significantly impacted by the tariffs, saw a decline of 1.8% in the Stoxx Europe 600 index after an initial rise [3] - The US Chamber of Commerce welcomed the agreement but noted that the 15% tariff still represents a significant increase in trade costs, suggesting that more industries should be included in the zero-tariff list [4]

2025 年 07 月 29 日 铜：美元回升，施压价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,000 | -0.32% | 79010 | 0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,763 | -0.34% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 75,630 | -12,517 | 176,092 | -4,738 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,965 | 1,900 | 270,000 | -789 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 17,832 | 1,699 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 127,400 | -1,075 | 13.56% | -1.11% | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - events such as the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the US copper tariff. With a tight raw material supply and seasonal weak demand, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and weak [1]. - The aluminum market is influenced by the approaching trade agreement between the US and the EU and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot social inventory. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and with the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, there is an expectation of improved downstream procurement. If the inspection of smelters expands, prices may strengthen [4]. - Regarding zinc, in the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, there are still structural risks overseas and the price is affected by capital sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Although there is an expectation of increased tin ore supply in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end still faces raw material pressure, and downstream demand is mixed [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further, as the short - term macro - environment cools, stainless - steel prices fall, and demand is weak [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased, and with the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to changes in the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. - For alumina, the pattern of over - capacity may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the market sentiment [13]. - Stainless - steel prices have declined slightly, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under upward pressure due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9762/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79010 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78200 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9650 - 9920/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1075 to 1247400 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 1.8 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement improved; in Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed flat at $2631/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20660 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2610 - 2660/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Market**: The trading volume in the spot market was low, and the market sentiment was affected by the approaching US - EU trade agreement [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% at 16914 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2019/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME lead inventory was 26.63 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 1.01% at 22638 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2822.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase, and the LME zinc inventory was 11.58 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the long - term zinc price is bearish. There are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin closed down 1.50% at 267920 yuan/ton, and the spot tin price was 267000 - 269000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end has raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [7]. - **Market**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 33000/ton for LME tin [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fell. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to decline further [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.60%, and the LC2509 contract price decreased by 9.19% [10]. - **Market**: With the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 5.22% to 3232 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high prices [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Spot prices declined slightly [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% [15]. - **Market**: The short - term price is supported by the steel mill's price - holding policy, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.55% to 20025 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [16]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is under upward pressure [16].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic and international gold prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a favorable US-EU trade agreement and a strong US dollar, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Price - As of 8:30 AM, the domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 770.84 CNY per gram, down 0.31% [1]. Group 2: International Gold Price - The international gold price is reported at 3307.4 USD per ounce, down 0.08% [2]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Gold Prices - The US and EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, alleviating fears of a larger trade war and enhancing market optimism, which reduces the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The strong performance of the US dollar, which rose 1% to a one-week high, makes gold more expensive for overseas buyers, further decreasing its attractiveness [4]. - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to provide limited breakthroughs, maintaining some uncertainty in the market, which may offer slight support for gold prices despite the downward pressures from the US-EU agreement and the strong dollar [5].

韩国财长：为达成最佳贸易协议，将尽最大努力在美国开展工作。 ...

美国总统特朗普周一表示，大多数不单独谈判贸易协议的贸易伙伴将很快面临15%至20%的对美出口关 税，远高于他在4月份征收的10%的关税。 "就全球而言，我想说税率会在15%到20%之间……我只是想友善一点，"特朗普在苏格兰坦伯利与英国 首相基尔·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）同坐时表示。 特朗普誓言要通过对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收关税来结束美国几十年来的贸易逆差，他已经宣布从本周五 开始对包括巴西在内的一些国家征收高达50%的关税。这促使包括印度、巴基斯坦、加拿大和泰国在内 的许多寻求降低关税的国家与美国进行了激烈的谈判。 特朗普上周日与欧盟达成了一项巨大的贸易协议，其中包括对大多数欧盟商品征收15%的关税，欧洲公 司在美国投资6000亿美元，以及未来三年购买7500亿美元的能源。 上周早些时候，美国还与日本签署了5500亿美元的贸易协议，并与英国、印度尼西亚和越南签署了规模 较小的贸易协议。包括印度在内的其他谈判正在进行中，但在周五之前达成更多协议的前景变得黯淡。 但特朗普周一称："我们将为全球其他国家设定一个关税税率，这是它们想和美国做生意就必须支付 的，因为你不可能坐下来达成200项协议。" 在特朗普发 ...