Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive global economic outlook with rising market risk appetite, but warns of persistent issues such as regionalism, inflation, and structured valuation risks [1][17] - It suggests a cautious yet optimistic approach to asset allocation, focusing on companies' core competencies and balancing risk and return [1][17] Market Overview - Global equity assets showed strong performance in September 2025, with MSCI Global returning 2.31% and emerging markets at 6.78%, outperforming developed markets [8][14] - Domestic markets continued to rise, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 1.87% and active equity funds performing well, particularly the China Equity Index which rose by 6.03% [8][14] International Market Analysis - Manufacturing expansion remains slow overseas, with potential valuation "disproof" risks due to expectation discrepancies [1][18] - The report highlights that while AI innovations are driving growth in the service sector, their impact on traditional manufacturing remains uncertain [20][18] Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic economy shows strong resilience, with industrial value-added growth of 5.2% year-on-year in August, and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.3% [22][24] - Service sector growth is robust, with a production index increase of 5.6% year-on-year, particularly in information technology and financial services [22][24] Asset Allocation Strategy - For equity funds, a core + opportunity "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with high performance certainty and dividend yields [51][52] - Fixed income funds should prioritize medium to short duration products for better value, as long-duration bonds face increasing risks [54][55] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, particularly in areas like chips, AI, and renewable energy, although volatility risks are noted [52][55] - The report indicates that while gold remains a long-term investment due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, oil prices may face downward pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations and OPEC+ production increases [38][44][43]

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 |宏观策略 | 大类资产配置 第四季度策略 Market Strategy - 更加均衡 更加均衡 第四季度看多股票、商品和非美货币，看空债券和美元，建议资产组合和区域 配置更加均衡。美国经济小幅滞涨，白宫对美联储干预和美联储降息令收益率 曲线陡峭化，利空美元与美债，利好股票与商品。欧元区经济好于预期，通胀 止跌走平，国债收益率回升。英国经济放缓，通胀居高，利率远期有下降空 间。日本经济放缓，通胀回落，但加息可能延续。中国经济弱复苏，通缩可能 改善，国债收益率回升。 资料来源：彭博，招银国际环球市场 0 10 20 30 40 50 美元货基 英镑货基 欧元货基 日元货基 人民币货基 全球投资级债 美国投资级债 美国高收益债 其他投资级债 新兴市场债 MSCI全球 MSCI美国 MSCI英国 MSCI欧元区 MSCI日本 MSCI中国 黄金 比特币 铜 原油 2025YTD收益(%) 商品 股票 债券 货基 图 1: 年初以来各大类资产收益(美元计价) 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 刘泽晖 (8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market (港G) due to its undervaluation compared to the A-share market (大A) and the anticipated impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global assets [1][3][10]. Valuation Comparison - The average PE ratio of the Hang Seng Index is approximately 10 times, while the CSI 300 Index has reached a PE ratio of 14 times, indicating that 港G is undervalued [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has a PE ratio of about 21.77 times, significantly lower than the 184 times of the STAR 50 Index in 大A, highlighting the valuation gap in the technology sector [3]. Currency Strength - The RMB has appreciated from 7.24 in April to a low of 7.10, indicating a strong currency that attracts international capital to RMB-denominated assets, particularly 港G [4]. - The ease of capital movement in 港G compared to 大A makes it a more attractive option for foreign investors [4]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cuts - Predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year, which could lead to a significant decline in the dollar index and create panic in dollar-denominated assets [5][9]. - Non-dollar assets, including 港G, are expected to benefit from this environment, as they will serve as alternative investments [6][9]. Technical Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology Index is anticipated to break through its previous high of 6195 points if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and inject liquidity into the market [8]. - A breakthrough above 6100 points could lead to a target of 11000 points, indicating substantial growth potential for 港G [9]. Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the upcoming interest rate cuts will trigger a significant reshuffling of global assets, and investors should prepare for this shift by positioning themselves in undervalued assets [10][11].

来源：威灵顿投资管理，Refinitiv 。数据区间：1998年1月31日至2025年8月31日。指数包括： MSCI世界指数、ICE美银全球政府债指数、ICE美银全球公司债指数、ICE美银全球高收益债指数、标 普高盛商品指数。过往业绩不代表未来表现。 三、关注图表中的偏度。具有良好回报特征的资产类别（即在上涨年份表现强劲、下跌年份相对损 失较小），如信用债，对于资产配置者尤其有价值。相比之下，大宗商品的涨跌往往更加均衡。在这种 情况下，主动管理可能有助于引入或增强投资组合的正偏度。 对于需要重点关注的领域，笔者认为，可关注延长周期的结构性增长催化剂，包括财政刺激、政策 改革以及央行潜在的降息举措。此外，关注通胀走势及跨资产相关性上升的可能性。尽管央行在缓解通 胀方面已取得实质性进展，关税也尚未引发再通胀，但仍需密切关注全球财政扩张和贸易政策等潜在催 尽管宏观和地缘政治环境充满挑战，但全球股市自年初以来依然表现强劲。从MSCI全球指数来 看，全球股票自2025年年初以来上涨约15%，延续了过去几年的强劲走势。这种持续的韧性可能会令部 分投资者感到意外，尤其是考虑到自2022年熊市结束以来全球股票的年均回报率高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the need for insurance institutions to adapt their asset allocation strategies in a low interest rate environment while maintaining a long-term investment approach to support the high-quality development of the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Environment and Confidence - Insurance institutions are experiencing increased confidence due to positive changes in the capital market since September of last year, with notable improvements in market performance despite economic slowdowns [4]. - Key factors contributing to this confidence include the rapid development of technology industries driven by artificial intelligence, expectations of intensified reforms during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the resilience of exports amid global economic uncertainties [4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - The risk appetite of insurance institutions is rising, necessitating adjustments in asset allocation strategies to align with the current market environment [5][6]. - The allocation structure is shifting towards a more diversified approach, with an emphasis on both fixed income and equity assets, while maintaining a cautious stance on fixed income investments [7]. - Insurance funds have increased their equity investments, with over 8% of investments in stocks this year, reflecting a significant rise from the beginning of the year [7]. Group 3: Alternative Investments and Long-term Strategies - There is a growing focus on diversifying income sources through alternative investments to extend duration, smooth volatility, and enhance yield flexibility [8]. - The appeal of REITs is highlighted as they offer predictable cash flows in a low interest rate environment, making them attractive for insurance capital [8]. Group 4: Investment Capability Enhancement - The changing investment environment demands improved asset identification and operational management capabilities from insurance institutions [9]. - A shift from a credit-focused approach to a more asset-understanding capability is essential for long-term stability and risk management [9]. - The industry consensus emphasizes the importance of deepening value investment and focusing on high-quality growth sectors such as new energy, technology, and advanced manufacturing [9].

跨 资产比较： 商品表现强于股债。上周，（ 1 ）资产表现： 大宗商品整体上行，贵金属与原油领涨。权益市场震荡调整。美股三大股指回调； A 股逆势上 涨，科创板表现亮眼。中债市场整体承压，三大债指均小幅下行。美元指数上涨 0.6% ，美元兑日元走强 1.0% 。 （ 2 ）相关性： 1 年滚动相关系数显 示，与上上周相比， A 股与中债国债间负相关、与港股间正相关的程度均显著下降。 （ 3 ）相对价值： A 股、美股相对 10Y 国债的风险溢价均边际下降； A 股相对商品的风险溢价边际上升。金油比、金铜比、金银比均边际下降。 权益：全球权益指数回调， A 股上涨且科创亮眼。 上周， MSCI 全球指数结束连续三周的上涨趋势，下跌 0.5% 。从区域表现看，新兴市场跌幅高于发 达，亚洲市场跌幅高于欧洲和北美。（ 1 ）发达市场中，美国三大股指均小幅下跌；港股恒指与恒科均跌逾 1.5% 。相较之下，欧股普遍走强， STOXX50 （ +0.8% ）、富时 100 （ +0.7% ）及德国 DAX （ +0.4% ）均录得正收益，日经 225 亦上涨 0.7% 。（ 2 ）新兴市场中， A 股表现亮眼，科创 50 ...

【导读】"9·24"行情启动一周年：投资者数量大幅增长，券商财富管理加速转型 中国基金报记者 孙越 在投资者数量增长的背后，券商财富管理业务转型正在加速进行。这一年，为匹配客户增长与需求升级，券商财富管理战略持续深化，从早期以通道业务 为主的模式，逐步转向以客户为中心、多元收入并重的财富管理架构。 投资者从"交易博弈" 转向"资产配置" 过去一年，最为深刻的变革发生在市场生态领域。政策推动下，资本市场正从"融资优先"迈向"投融资平衡"的良性循环。中国上市公司协会发布的数据显 示，上半年上市公司共实现净利润3万亿元，同比增长2.54%，盈利修复态势进一步巩固。与此同时，上市公司回报股东意识不断增强。截至8月31日，上 市公司现金分红总额达6497亿元。资本市场既是产业转型的"孵化器"，也成为居民财富增长的"蓄水池"，这种双重价值属性正在凸显。 资金结构层面，机构主导的特征更加明显，中长期资金占比稳步提升。外资持股规模和交易活跃度均实现显著提升，社保、保险等长期资金加速入市。此 外，伴随A股吸引力上升，个人投资者积极入市，其投资习惯、配置需求、投资偏好均发生显著变化。 在受访机构看来，最显著的变化是，在这一年中， ...

中国基金报记者 孙越 2024年9月24日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会联合宣布一系列重磅金融政策，A股市场迎来重要转折点。如今，已悄然走过一个年头。 【导读】"9·24"行情启动一周年：投资者数量大幅增长，券商财富管理加速转型 这一年，资本市场在波澜起伏中展现出新的气象。 A股市场投资者数量显著增长。据中国结算数据，自去年10月至今年8月，这11个月内A 股新开户数已达到2874.60万户。今年9月开户数仍未出炉，按照此前11个月的月均开户数估算，自去年"9·24"行情启动后的一年时间 里，A股新开户数有望突破3000万户。 在投资者数量增长的背后，券商财富管理业务转型正在加速进行。这一年，为匹配客户增长与需求升级，券商财富管理战略持续深化，从 早期以通道业务为主的模式，逐步转向以客户为中心、多元收入并重的财富管理架构。 投资者从 "交易博弈" 转向 "资产配置" 国联民生证券相关人士向记者表示，投资者对 ETF指数基金的认知和接受度越来越高，其通过指数化工具"被动"配置龙头，降低了个股炒 作频率，提升了市场稳定性。"散户化"向"机构化"转变加速。 西部证券相关人士也认为，个人投资者正加速从盲目追逐热点转向更 ...

过去这一周，美国又开始向全球市场释放黑天鹅了，经济数据连续出现反转。 首先是周四，美国的统计局 宣布 当周初申请失业金人数21.8万人 ，这个数字不仅低于市场预期 的23.5万人，也低于上个月的23.2万人的数据。 这说明进入到9月份之后， 美国的就业情况似乎没有这么糟糕了，失业问题有所缓解。 此外周四当天美国还公布了 美国第二季度的实际GDP为3.8%， 也是远远高于市场预期的3.3%。 这个数据说明第二季度美国的经济增长，也是高于市场预期的，经济并没有市场想象那样糟糕。 周四的数据公布完之后，周五美国的统计局又马上公布了最新的PCE物价指数月度数据。 数据显示 老美本月的物价指数是0.2% ，基本符合市场的预期。 这说明什么？ 说明此刻美国的通胀相比之前没有变得更糟糕但也没有缓解， 通胀的形势并没有明显的好转。 一边是就业和经济出现向好的状态，另一边是通胀 依然严峻。 而大伙要知道，9月份美联储降息的依据就是： 就业经济数据糟糕，而通胀数据有缓解。 最新的数据表现，完全颠覆了之前市场对整个美国经济的认知。 所以，最新的数据出炉之后，其实就是在直接向美联储释放了一个信号： 接下来的10月份，不用急着降息了。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising gold prices have led to a surge in gold investment products, which are outperforming traditional financial products in terms of returns [2][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 28, there are 48 existing investment products linked to gold, with 16 of them being newly issued this year by various financial institutions [3]. - The issuance of gold-linked investment products has accelerated, with five new products launched in September alone [3][4]. - The annualized returns for gold investment products have been concentrated between 2.00% and 4.00%, significantly outperforming similar products [10]. Group 2: Product Characteristics - Recent gold investment products are diversifying beyond traditional gold price-linked models to include structured products with varying return structures [4][5]. - Two main types of gold-linked investment products have emerged: "fixed income + gold" and structured products linked to gold derivatives [3][5]. - The investment scope has expanded to include gold ETFs and gold-related stocks, enhancing the risk-return profile of these products [7]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - There is a growing demand for gold investment products, leading to a situation where many products are sold out shortly after launch [8]. - Investors are increasingly seeking higher returns, with many shifting from traditional fixed-income products to riskier gold-linked investments [8][10]. - Some investment products have reached their return targets early, prompting early termination and profit-taking [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current high prices, analysts remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects due to geopolitical tensions and central bank purchasing [12]. - The market anticipates potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support gold prices in the medium to long term [11][12]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will remain high but may experience increased volatility in the near future [12].