第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛已圆满结束，迈科期货是本届大赛的指定交易商，也是连续第 三年参与大赛服务客户。 期货交易的本质就是风险管理和资产配置。在大赛这种追求收益和排名的竞技氛围下，防止客户因心态 失衡而陷入过度交易、重仓交易的陷阱，是期货公司风控工作的核心。"风控不是事后的补救，而是事 前的教育和事中的陪伴。我们深知无法替代客户做决策，也无法消除市场的固有风险，但我们能做的是 成为客户交易路上的'安全带'和'冷静哨'，通过系统性的工具、持续性的教育和人性化的陪伴，尽最大 努力帮助他们在追求收益的惊险跳跃中，牢牢系好风险控制这根'安全绳'。特别是在大赛的聚光灯下， 我们更希望向市场和客户传递一个清晰的信号：迈科期货不仅关心客户能走多快，更关心客户能走多 远。"迈科期货上述负责人表示。 在该负责人看来，期货交易是一场"马拉松"，而非"百米冲刺"。它奖励的不是短暂的锋芒，而是持久的 耐力和深邃的智慧。"我们希望每一位交易者都能将大赛视为提升个人认知与心性修炼的道场。每一位 交易者的最终目标不应仅仅是账户数字的起伏，而是通过严格的纪律、冷静的头脑和持续的学习，成为 一名稳健的交易者。愿市场中的每一位参与者 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Futures Traders Conference highlighted key investment strategies focusing on concentration, patience, and risk management among successful traders [1][2][3] - Participants expressed optimism for the stock index futures market, predicting a slow bull market driven by technology and emerging industries, despite potential macroeconomic challenges [3][4] Group 1: Winning Strategies - Lin Wei Jin, champion of the global lightweight group, emphasized the importance of "focus, patience, and risk control" in trading, particularly in the sugar futures market [1] - Li Cheng Jie, ranked 9th in the high-net-worth group, shared his transition from stock speculation to asset allocation, highlighting the significance of making correct decisions based on macro research [1][2] - Yuan Zuo Yue, 6th in the quantitative group, attributed his success to a combination of quantitative models and subjective filtering, maintaining discipline over a decade [2] Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - Participants discussed the long-term potential of stock index futures, with Yu Hui expressing confidence in their intrinsic value and future profitability despite recent price increases [2][3] - Li Cheng Jie noted that stock index futures have entered a slow bull phase, driven by technology sectors, while cautioning against macroeconomic disruptions [3] - The commodity market is expected to experience differentiation, with Lin Wei Jin predicting a bearish trend in the sugar market and caution from Kuang Bai Lin regarding the construction and black sectors [3][4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Li Cheng Jie proposed focusing on lithium carbonate and other renewable energy commodities, while also considering shorting opportunities in overseas oil markets [3] - Yuan Zuo Yue suggested that the end of homogenized commodity market trends post-2017 necessitates enhanced analysis of sectors and products through a combination of quantitative and subjective approaches [4] - Xue Chang Hao advocated for a non-directional approach, utilizing a dual selling strategy to adapt to market trends and seek consistent returns [4]

Choice数据显示，截至11月12日，债券ETF共有53只，今年以来增加32只；规模则从去年底的1799.87亿 元升至7054.23亿元。百亿级债券ETF也批量涌现，截至11月12日，30只债券ETF规模在百亿元以上，而 2024年底仅有5只。在业内人士看来，今年以来债券ETF频现新品种，为投资者提供了丰富的资产配置 工具，后续更多创新产品值得期待 ◎记者 赵明超 债券ETF发展迅猛，最新规模已突破7000亿元，今年以来增长5200多亿元。与此同时，百亿级ETF阵营 持续扩容，在当前上市的53只债券ETF中，规模突破百亿元的产品有30只。 百亿级债券ETF达30只 Choice数据显示，截至11月12日，债券ETF共有53只，今年以来增加32只；规模则从去年底的1799.87亿 元升至7054.23亿元。 值得注意的是，百亿级债券ETF批量涌现。截至11月12日，30只债券ETF规模在百亿元以上，而2024年 底仅有5只。 具体来看，海富通中证短融ETF规模为686.1亿元，博时中证可转债及可交换债券ETF规模为572.63亿 元，富国中债7-10年政策性金融债ETF规模为437.27亿元，鹏扬中债-30 ...

以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：做配置的小雪 来源：雪球 我从去年10月28日开始，在雪球通过三分法做资产配置，在当时遭到了很多质疑，很多朋友认为我太激进了，应该再等等。 结果一年过去了，评论区的画风变成了：牛市就这收益率不高啊。 和 牛市 比 收益率 ， 这叫相对收益思维 ， 但我的目标是追求绝对收益。 选相对收益还是绝对收益，投资策略不一样，投资结果也不同，今天和大家详细聊聊～ 一 、 如何理解相对收益和绝对收益？ 在投资中，关注自己实实在在赚了多少，是10%还是20%，这叫 绝对收益 。 相比大盘或基准跑赢了多少，这叫 相对收益 。 举个例子，投资A股， 绝对收益 想的是，不管牛市、熊市、震荡市，都要赚到钱。 而 相对收益 想的是能不能跑赢大盘，也就是牛市比大盘赚的多，熊市比大盘亏的少。 相对收益 想要跑赢大盘，靠的是有效的择时和择股能力。 做配置的小雪 . 绝对收益 想要穿越市场周期，靠的是策略和纪律，比如资产 ...

有人问，到底这个周期怎么影响到每个人的钱袋子？简单点说，经济有强有弱，国家要么刺激消费、要 么收紧财政，咱的钱就跟着变。 有钱的时候政策鼓励大家投资创业，有风险的时候政策收紧，自己手里的钱必须稳住。这套情节年年都 在上演，但大多数人到头来还是追着热点跑，等明白过来早已站岗站烂。 2025年，不少人觉得理财像踩了雷。身边有人存款利息越来越少，有人买了点新能源基金还没捂热净值 就跌了，也有一大批人追高科技股，刚进场就被套牢。 不是谁命不好，是很多人根本没看懂市场背后的周期脉络。市场看起来风平浪静，其实周期才是决定财 富流向的大Boss，有的人总想着稳赚不赔，可一套公式用到底就是自找麻烦。 经济变化和天气一样，每年都要轮换，有热有冷有风有雨。中国眼下不再是去年那个冬天，政府撒钱投 资，企业贷款利率一次比一次低，老百姓也能享点政策红利。 这一系列动作，是让经济暖起来。美国那边却恰好相反，工厂没啥新订单，大家的钱花得少但物价还 涨，让管理层左右为难。这正说明，我们自己家门口和别人家地板上的温度压根不同，有变化就有机 会。 对于普通家庭，别把鸡蛋放一个篮子，也没必要天天像炒股一样激进。搞个"保险箱加发动机"组合就够 了， ...

Core Insights - The inflation differences between China and Japan reflect the distinct stages of economic development and national conditions, making it difficult to determine absolute superiority [1] - Japan's long-term price stability is influenced by factors such as aging population and sluggish economic growth, while China's moderate inflation indicates economic vitality and potential [1] Inflation Rates - Over the past decade, China's average inflation rate was approximately 2.3%, while Japan's was only 0.8%, leading to a 25% increase in Chinese prices compared to an 8% increase in Japan [2] - Over a 30-year period, Japan's price levels have remained nearly unchanged since the early 1990s, with instances of deflation [2] Demographic Factors - Japan has the highest aging population globally, with over 29% aged 65 and above, resulting in low consumption demand and high savings rates [2] - In contrast, China's labor force aged 16-59 constitutes 61.2% of the total population, driving strong consumption demand [2] Economic Growth - Rapid economic growth typically correlates with higher inflation due to increased investment, employment, and consumer demand [3] - Japan has experienced low growth rates averaging around 0.7% from 2014 to 2024, leading to weak overall demand and limited inflationary pressure [3] - China has maintained high growth rates, with a projected GDP growth of approximately 5% in 2024, contributing to inflationary pressures [3] Monetary Policy - Japan's central bank has implemented ultra-loose monetary policies, including zero and negative interest rates, but these have not effectively stimulated inflation due to demographic and growth factors [4] - Japan's M2 money supply grew by only about 35% from 2014 to 2024, indicating low monetary expansion [4] - Conversely, China's M2 money supply increased by approximately 115% during the same period, suggesting greater inflationary pressure [5] Industrial Structure - Japan's highly industrialized and efficient economy allows for productivity gains that can offset cost increases, with manufacturing productivity rising by about 2.1% annually from 2020 to 2025 [5] - China's industrialization is still in progress, leading to more noticeable price increases [5] Housing Market - China's housing market has seen significant price increases over the past two decades, affecting overall consumer prices through direct and indirect channels [6] - Japan's real estate market has remained subdued since the bubble burst, contributing to stable price levels [6] Consumer Behavior - Japanese consumers are highly price-sensitive, which limits companies' ability to raise prices easily [8] - In contrast, Chinese consumers have developed higher inflation expectations, leading to anticipatory consumption that can drive prices up [10] Globalization and Government Regulation - Japan benefits from a global economic structure that allows for low-cost imports and high-value exports, influencing its inflation dynamics [10] - China faces greater pressure from international market fluctuations, impacting its inflation levels [10] - Both countries have different approaches to price monitoring and regulation, with Japan having a more established system [10] Social Welfare Systems - Japan's comprehensive social welfare system helps stabilize prices, while China's system is still developing, leading to higher price pressures in healthcare and education [11]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in gold prices, with a peak of 1004 CNY per gram followed by a drop to 894 CNY, highlights the risks of chasing market trends and the emotional toll on investors [1][3][10] - Many investors tend to invest all their capital in a single asset, leading to significant losses during downturns, as seen in the recent gold price fluctuations [3][5] - The importance of asset allocation is emphasized, suggesting that diversifying investments across different asset classes can mitigate risks and reduce emotional stress during market volatility [5][9] Investment Behavior - Investors often react to market news and peer performance, leading to impulsive buying at high prices and subsequent panic selling at lows [3][10] - The tendency to invest all funds in one asset class can amplify losses, as demonstrated by the 11% maximum loss on a 10,000 CNY investment in gold during the recent downturn [5][7] Asset Allocation Strategy - A recommended strategy is to allocate only a portion of total capital to gold (e.g., 10%), while diversifying the remainder into bonds and stocks to stabilize overall portfolio performance [5][9] - Historical data suggests that a balanced portfolio with 12% in stocks and 88% in bonds can effectively manage risk and reduce anxiety during market fluctuations [7][9] Long-term Perspective - Long-term asset allocation strategies are likely to yield better returns compared to short-term trading strategies, which can lead to inconsistent performance [7][10] - The psychological benefits of a stable investment portfolio, which allows for less daily monitoring and anxiety, are highlighted as a significant advantage of proper asset allocation [9][10]

以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：做配置的小雪 最近，电影《大空头》的原型迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry），因为公开质疑美股AI泡沫，再次成为市场焦点。 01 "我对资产价值的判断，已经长期与市场脱节" 最近几周，大空头先是披露了旗下Scion基金，分别持有英伟达和AI软件公司Palantir的看跌期权，并在社交媒体上炮火全开，强调市场正处于泡 沫状态。 11月10日，Scion基金显示已在SEC（美国证券交易委员会）注销。 11月13日，大空头在社交媒体上表示，"我对证券价值的评估现在与市场脱节，而且这种状况已经持续一段时间了"，并预告"11月25日将有更好 的事情"。 在最近的帖子中，更是配上了电影《大空头》剧照，并配文："往昔之我，今日之我。上次成功了，这次也终将成功"。 做配置的小雪 . 这不是大空头第一次关闭基金。 2008年，他就关闭了第一家对冲基金Scion Capital，随后在2013年，重新 ...

市场人士强调，权益资产波动属正常现象，明确长期投资目标有助于保持投资定力。随着经济复苏态势 巩固，投资者宜以更从容心态应对市场起伏，通过科学配置实现资产保值增值。 数据显示，10月CPI与PPI同比增速双双回升，印证经济基本面持续修复。观察盘面可以发现，多数日 内波动均能实现自我修复，过度关注短期波动反而可能加剧焦虑情绪。专家建议投资者保持政策跟踪， 重点关注保民生、促消费等经济复苏相关举措。 对于长期投资者，建议采取三方面策略：首先实施定期定额投资，利用市场波动摊薄成本；其次配置黄 金等对冲资产，降低组合相关性风险；第三增加存款、国债等固收类产品比重，构建稳健投资基石。工 薪阶层可通过自动化定投工具，在控制风险的同时把握市场机遇。 近期A股市场呈现震荡上行态势，沪指突破4000点后展开多空拉锯，在反复波动中不断刷新阶段新高。 市场分析指出，投资者可通过优化策略应对当前行情特征。 ...

期货日报网讯（记者 吕双梅）11月15日，2025全球期货交易者大会暨第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛、第十二届全球衍生品实盘交易大赛颁奖大 会在西安举办。全球赛重量组第九名、长期稳定盈利奖第五名顾明喆在会上表示，当前全球正处于"繁荣、泡沫与货币贬值"阶段，过去24个月全球央行降息 312次，为黄金价格上涨提供了支撑。另外，近两年央行购金潮持续升温，全球黄金外汇储备占比已首次超过美债，中国、俄罗斯等国长期增持黄金，推动 外汇储备多元化。 "从配置角度看，黄金仍处于结构性低配状态，仅占美国银行私人客户资产管理规模的 0.5%，机构配置比例仅占2.4%，未来上涨空间充足。"他表示，黄金 多头趋势尚未终止，除非发生罕见的大级别地缘与央行再定价事件，如全球贸易摩擦进一步缓和、俄乌和谈出现突破性进展等，短期内难以实现。 顾明喆认为，黄金在降息周期前后均有明确的上涨规律，目前中美贸易磋商取得实质性进展，黄金下一波买点或出现在12月美联储降息后，同时技术上看到 底部结构，波动率回落到正常水平。 ...