记者 尹睿 济南报道 2026年,居民定期存款市场将迎来规模空前的集中到期潮。根据中金公司（601995）货币金融研究数据, 全年合计超过30万亿元的2年期、3年期和5年期居民定期存款将陆续到期,其中2年期20.7万亿元、3年期 9.6万亿元、5年期1.3万亿元。 与存款到期高峰形成鲜明对比的,是定期存款利率的深度下调。上述到期存款在2025年及之前存入时,普 遍享受了相对较高的利率。但根据中金研究测算,它们重定价(即到期后重新存入)后,利率将分别显著下 行72、142和168个基点(bp),普通储户正面临资金重新配置的关键抉择。 数字人民币或成过渡选择 自2026年1月1日起,工商银行、中国银行、农业银行、建设银行、交通银行及邮储银行（601658）六大 国有行同步执行数字人民币计息政策,数字货币正式告别"无息时代"。 根据公告细则,一类、二类、三类个人实名钱包及单位钱包余额,均按照该行公布的活期存款挂牌利率计 付利息,每季度末月20日结息、21日入账,与传统活期存款规则完全一致。记者在六大国有银行官网查询 到,当前各家银行的活期存款挂牌利率均为0.05%。 值得注意的是,此次计息范围明确排除四类非实名钱包 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 开年风格如何判断? 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2026 年 1 月 A 股市场风格的最新观点是什么? 基于四象限风格轮动模型,1月份在成长价值维度上暂时维持对价值风格占优的 判断,但略微向成长风格倾斜。从市场情绪来看,投资者对价值风格偏好较强, 而从市场状态(即风格动量)来看,成长风格略微占优。宏观指标则显示成长和 争 狗 - ● 量化策略综合评分显示,价值风格偏好减弱,但短期内价值风格可能仍占 优。大小盘方面,由看好大盘转为均衡偏小盘,小盘股或中小盘股短期内 可能略微占优,宏观环境和市场情绪是主要驱动因素。 资产配置方面,相对看好国内股票资产,对商品持中性态度,债券相对谨 ● 慎。宏观预期差角度对股票和商品持谨慎态度,对债券中性:左侧择时维 度对股票市场持乐观态度;技术面阻力支撑维度认为市场顶部存在一定阻 力。 行业轮动模型显示目前处于快速轮动状态,12月模型持仓行业跑输基准 . 0.7%,但 2025年全年组合收益率跑赢基准 11 个百分点。2026年 1 月推 荐行业包括银行、建材、计算机。综合金融、煤炭及综合。 紧急积极成长型策略表现最忧 ...

原因一：利率已经进入下行通道，长期定存锁得有点"亏" 先看一组很直观的数据： 很多人都有这么个习惯：工资一到账，先把大部分钱转成"定期存款"，最好选个三年期、五年期，图个 踏实、图个利息多一点。 前几年，这样做确实没啥问题。那时候，三年期定存利率还能到3%以上，十万块一年利息三千多，放 在银行里"躺赚"，安全感满满。 可这两年，你再去银行App上看一眼，心情可能就完全不一样了： 不是银行不想让你存，而是这四个原因，真的很现实。 同样是三年期，现在很多银行已经跌破2%，甚至掉进"1字头"； 想要更高一点的大额存单、5年期产品，要么额度抢不到，要么干脆直接下架； 更关键的是，不少银行内部人、理财经理反而会提醒你：今明两年，不要随便一大笔钱全砸进"定 期存款"。 2025年5月，六大国有银行带头降息： 活期利率只有0.05%，3年期、5年期定存利率分别降到1.25%、1.3%！ 股份制银行、中小银行后来跟进，有的甚至在一年里密集调整了好几次； 一些民营银行、村镇银行，3年、5年期定存利率也从过去的3%左右一路跌到"2字头"甚至"1字头"；5年 期大额存单在不少大行App里，干脆已经"查无此人"。 这意味着什么？ 几 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of wealth management is to help clients achieve long-term preservation and appreciation of wealth. In the context of increasing global macroeconomic and political uncertainties and declining asset yields, wealth management institutions are undergoing a profound shift from scale-oriented to client allocation-oriented strategies. The future competitiveness of wealth management institutions will depend on three core capabilities: the breadth of fund evaluation dimensions, the depth of allocation service expertise, and the length of client companionship [2][17]. Industry Transformation - The understanding of the wealth management industry has evolved from merely being a sales channel for financial products to a more comprehensive service model. Key events such as the continuous decline in the yield of ten-year government bonds and the reduction of life insurance policy interest rates indicate a systemic downward trend in the risk-free return rate. The era of relying on traditional fixed-income assets for stable appreciation is nearing its end, shifting the focus from obtaining "absolute returns" to managing "relative risks" through scientific allocation [3][4]. Wealth Management Quality - Good wealth management encompasses two levels: asset-liability management and understanding client life cycles. The role of wealth management has transitioned from simply selling products to becoming a critical bridge connecting client needs with asset management. This requires a deep understanding of clients' financial situations, risk preferences, and life stages to create tailored asset allocation strategies that balance safety, returns, and liquidity [4]. Core Challenges - Wealth management institutions face three core challenges: homogenized competition, the urgent need for enhanced professional capabilities, and the conflict between short-term orientation and long-term value. These challenges necessitate profound industry transformation [5]. Regulatory Changes - By 2025, regulatory policies will demand more precise requirements for fund management, sales, and advisory services, marking the beginning of a deep reform phase centered on "investor interests." The wealth management market is undergoing significant structural changes, with the essence of "asset scarcity" being a mismatch between risk and return rather than a reduction in total social wealth [7]. Professional Competence - The professional nature of wealth management extends beyond sales. As investors move away from "guaranteed returns" to a "allocation era," practitioners must possess three core competencies: understanding investments, comprehending product creation and management, and mastering asset allocation across cycles and categories [8]. Fund Evaluation Dimensions - A scientific fund evaluation system is fundamental for wealth management institutions to provide allocation services. This system should encompass four core dimensions: 1. Performance stability, focusing on long-term risk-adjusted returns and consistency across different market conditions [9]. 2. Transparency of investment processes, ensuring objective decision-making and risk control [9]. 3. Stability of management teams, assessing the alignment of incentive mechanisms with long-term performance [9]. 4. Reasonableness of fees, evaluating the match between management fees and actual value creation [9]. Client-Centric Advisory Model - The essence of the buy-side advisory model is to align with client interests through systematic service processes while also addressing human factors. Wealth management institutions should establish systematic business processes to ensure service quality and continuity, avoiding emotional decision-making risks [11]. Client Companionship - Long-term companionship with clients is crucial for mitigating behavioral biases in investment decisions. Research indicates that over 70% of the variance in investor returns is due to behavioral biases rather than product selection. Effective companionship involves timely interventions during market volatility, product value declines, and significant life changes [14]. Future Outlook - The wealth management industry is expected to expand its service scope from mere fund allocation to comprehensive family governance services, leveraging external expert networks for specialized support. Additionally, technological empowerment and global asset allocation will become focal points, alongside integrating social responsibility into wealth management decisions [15][16].

2025 年，在金融市场"贵金属"无疑是这场盛宴中最耀眼的明星。社交平台上，有位网友投资者靠投资黄金狂赚近 70 万元！ 地缘政治的紧张局势也为贵金属市场的火爆添了一把火。中东和俄乌地区的地缘政治冲突持续不断，这些地区的不稳定因素如同高悬在全球经济头顶的达 摩克利斯之剑，让投资者们忧心忡忡。在这种充满不确定性的环境下，投资者们纷纷寻求避险资产，以保护自己的财富。而黄金，作为传统的避险资产， 自然成为了投资者们的首选。当冲突爆发时，市场的避险情绪急剧升温，对黄金的需求也随之大幅增加。就像在暴风雨中，人们纷纷寻找避风港，黄金就 如同那坚固的港湾，吸引着投资者们的资金涌入，从而推动了黄金价格的上涨 。 全球央行的购金热潮也是推动贵金属价格上涨的重要力量。近年来，各国央行纷纷增加黄金储备，这一趋势在 2025 年尤为明显。据世界黄金协会发布的 2025 年三季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，尽管金价处于创纪录高位，三季度全球央行依然加快了购金步伐，净购金量总计 220 吨，较二季度增长 28%，较上年同比增长 10%；前三季度全球央行净购金总量达 634 吨，虽低于过去三年的异常高位数值，但仍显著高于 2022 年之 ...

Group 1 - The report addresses three core questions regarding the RMB exchange rate in 2026: 1) How to assess the rise of the RMB? 2) How will the exchange rate rise and how will the central bank regulate it? 3) What impact does RMB appreciation have on stocks and bonds? [2][8] - The current appreciation of the RMB is deemed reasonable, supported by a decline in the US dollar index (over 10%), a narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential (approximately 110 basis points), and a decrease in the attractiveness of the RMB as a financing currency [2][7][10]. - The expected central level for the RMB exchange rate is around 6.8, with the central bank's regulation being crucial to avoid unnecessary overshooting [2][23]. Group 2 - The central bank's regulation follows a "symmetrical principle," meaning that just as it previously prevented excessive depreciation, it should also focus on regulating excessive appreciation to balance the economic impact of exchange rate fluctuations [2][23]. - Key regulatory measures include the use of the counter-cyclical factor in the central parity rate, guiding expectations through official channels, and reducing the reserve requirement for forward foreign exchange purchases [2][23][44]. - The report suggests that the RMB's appreciation can be divided into "non-overshooting" and "overshooting" phases, with historical data indicating that after overshooting, the central bank tends to gradually open the door to rate cuts, aiding in the return of liquidity to a neutral environment [2][47]. Group 3 - In the non-overshooting phase, the stock market benefits from cyclical recovery, favoring cyclical sectors, while the bond market may face pressure unless driven by overseas quantitative easing [2][56]. - Conversely, in the overshooting phase, economic expectations may suffer negative impacts, leading to generally subdued stock market performance, while the bond market may see increased probabilities of appreciation [2][56]. - Historical data shows that during non-overshooting phases, the stock market, represented by indices like the CSI 300, tends to perform well, while the bond market may not necessarily decline [2][56].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a focus on equity products and mid-cap blue-chip industries for asset allocation in January 2026, indicating a positive outlook for A-shares and commodities, while maintaining a neutral stance on U.S. stocks and bonds [2][61] - The report highlights that A-shares are expected to experience slight upward movement with limited odds but a relatively high win rate historically in January, while the overall sentiment remains neutral to slightly bullish [11][61] - The performance of various asset allocation strategies since 2025 is noted, with low-volatility strategies yielding an annualized return of 6.2%, medium-low volatility strategies at 11.7%, and medium-high volatility strategies at 17.6% [7][62] Group 2 - The industry rotation strategy for January recommends focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, telecommunications, electronics, and media, driven by a return of risk appetite [42][48] - The report indicates that the industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks, achieving an annualized return of 40% since 2025, significantly surpassing the performance of the CSI 800 and mixed equity funds [44][45] - The ETF strategy for January includes recommendations for ETFs in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, telecommunications, information technology, and gaming, aligning with the broader asset allocation strategy [50][55]

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 74.12 million ounces as of November 2025, marking a continuous increase for 13 months [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, with expectations of two more cuts in 2026, which may support gold prices [1] - Experts predict that gold prices may stabilize at around $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with potential to rise to $6,000 if geopolitical tensions worsen or if the Fed accelerates rate cuts [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The global silver market is expected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces in 2025, continuing a five-year trend of supply shortages [2] - Silver prices have shown high volatility, recently reaching a record high of $83 per ounce before retreating below $80, reflecting a more elastic price response compared to gold [2] - The demand for silver is bolstered by its industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where annual consumption exceeds 200 million ounces [2] Group 3: Deposit Rate Trends - Deposit rates for fixed-term savings have entered a "1" digit era, with significant declines in high-interest products like large-denomination certificates of deposit [3] - The trend of declining deposit rates is expected to continue due to a loose monetary policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth and reducing financing costs [3] - The likelihood of deposit rates increasing in 2026 is low, with expectations of stability or slight declines instead [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are expected to see demand growth driven by sectors like renewable energy and automotive lightweighting [4] - The storage chip industry is highlighted as a significant investment opportunity in 2026, with a potential "super cycle" driven by AI advancements [4] - Investors are advised to consider ETFs related to chips or semiconductors for diversified exposure to the industry [4] Group 5: Risk Management in Investment - Experts emphasize the importance of risk management in asset allocation for 2026, given the increased geopolitical risks and market volatility [5] - Investment strategies should focus on long-term, stable asset allocation rather than high-leverage, high-volatility opportunities [5] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing high-dividend assets for stable cash flow with investments in technology growth funds during market corrections [6]

根据央行最新公布的数据，截至2025年11月末，我国黄金储备规模达到了惊人的7412万盎司，环比增加 了3万盎司。这已经是我国连续第13个月增持黄金了。那么，究竟是什么原因促使我国黄金储备持续增 加呢？ 黄金作为一种避险资产，在当前全球经济不确定性增加的背景下，各国央行都在寻求多元化的资产配 置，以降低风险。我国增持黄金储备，有助于提高我国金融体系的稳定性和抗风险能力。 黄金具有保值增值的功能。随着全球经济复苏和通货膨胀压力加大，黄金价格有望持续上涨。此时增持 黄金，有利于我国储备资产增值。 专家表示，2026年黄金大概率维持高位震荡、整体较为稳健的运行格局。以下是对未来黄金走势的分 析： 1. 黄金需求持续增长 美元走势对黄金价格具有较大影响。如果美元走势强劲，黄金价格可能承压；反之，美元走势疲软，黄 金价格有望上涨。从目前来看，美元走势存在不确定性，这也使得黄金价格走势更加复杂。 4. 地缘政治风险上升 地缘政治风险上升，黄金作为避险资产的需求将进一步增加。这有助于黄金价格维持高位。 综合以上分析，2026年黄金价格大概率维持高位震荡、整体较为稳健的运行格局。对于投资者来说，关 注黄金价格走势，合理配置黄 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the contrasting performance in global capital markets in 2025, with significant gains in AI hardware, precious metals, and geopolitical tensions driving asset prices up, while many retail investors faced losses due to market volatility [1][2] - Investor Achen achieved impressive returns across various asset classes, emphasizing a disciplined and structured asset allocation strategy rather than speculative trading [1][3] Investment Performance - Achen's stock account yielded a 45% return, driven by a focus on the AI hardware supply chain and a strict dynamic rebalancing strategy [3] - The performance of precious metals was influenced by geopolitical events, with silver rising 140% and gold 60%, the latter being a more planned investment based on macroeconomic trends [2][19] - The 15% return from the "Anzheng Changying" fund was viewed as a stabilizing force within Achen's overall portfolio, providing a buffer against market volatility [6][31] Risk Management - Achen's investment philosophy redefines risk, focusing on the ability to preserve wealth against inflation and market downturns rather than merely avoiding losses [6][39] - The structured account system divides roles among different asset classes, with equities as the offensive component, ETFs as a defensive measure, and precious metals providing protection during market turmoil [7][26] Future Strategy - Looking ahead to 2026, Achen plans to adopt a more conservative approach, reducing exposure to precious metals and reallocating profits into lower-volatility assets to enhance portfolio resilience [11][34] - Achen emphasizes the importance of a tiered asset allocation strategy that aligns with individual financial goals and risk tolerance, advocating for a balanced approach to avoid extreme risk exposure [12][40] Conclusion - The narrative underscores the value of stability and long-term survival in investing, contrasting with the prevalent pursuit of high returns in volatile markets [14][44] - Achen's experience serves as a reminder that true investment success lies in maintaining a sustainable strategy that prioritizes wealth preservation over short-term gains [14][46]