金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：继续回落；白银：高位震荡 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银中性 价格区间：760-800元/克、8700-9100元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 | | | 国际黄金期现价格及价差 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合 | 期货收盘价(连 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦现货 | COMEX黄金连续 | | | 约):COMEX黄金 | 续):COMEX黄金 | | COMEX黄金主力 | COMEX黄金主力 | | 2025-07-04 | 3425.60 | 3332.50 | 3336.94 | -88.66 | -93.1 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is $36.87 per ounce, with a daily high of $36.93 and a low of $36.60 [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields, predicting a decrease to 3.45% for the two-year yield and 4.20% for the ten-year yield, down from previous estimates of 3.85% and 4.50% respectively [1] - The recent strong employment data in the U.S. has eased pressure on the Federal Reserve, but Goldman Sachs strategists remain cautious, noting that the significant contribution from government hiring and a slight decline in labor participation rate weaken the data's impact [1] Group 2 - The silver market is attempting to break above $37.00, with potential resistance levels at $37.30 to $37.50 if it surpasses this threshold [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $36.55 and $36.30, while resistance levels are at $37.00 and $37.20 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the easing of global trade frictions, the market focuses on the silver catch - up market. Short - term catch - up expectations may drive the silver price to break through upwards, but there are still uncertainties in interest rate cuts and economic expectations, and sudden risk events may increase the long - position holding pressure [2] - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile throughout the year, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. Fed's long - term loose monetary policy and expected 2 interest rate cuts this year drive the silver price, but in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts, the gold - silver ratio rises, and the industrial demand for silver is expected to decline negatively in 2025, which may put pressure on the silver price [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, Trump's policies and increased market expectations of Fed's interest rate cuts to 4 times promoted the silver price to run strongly. In the second quarter, Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude of not being eager to cut interest rates led to a short - term silver price plunge, but later the suspension of tariff implementation and the easing of Sino - US trade relations pushed the silver price to a new high in June [11] 2. Silver Catch - up Logic 2.1 Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the price relationship between gold and silver. Its central value has been rising. The change is affected by factors such as the US dollar credit and economic expectations. A decline in the gold - silver ratio usually occurs in the economic expansion stage, while an increase occurs in the stage of rising economic uncertainty [15][20] 2.2 Comparison of Gold and Silver Performance in Bull Markets - There have been three major bull markets in the history of gold and silver prices. In the first stage of each bull market, the gold price usually starts to rise first, and in the second stage, the silver price is likely to start first. In 5 out of 6 upward stages, the silver price outperformed the gold price [22] 2.3 Conditions for Silver to Start Catch - up - When the future economic certainty increases or there is no recession expectation and inflation is expected to rise, the gold - silver ratio will usually be repaired downward. Currently, it is not a suitable stage for silver catch - up trading due to economic uncertainties and uncertainties in Fed's interest rate cuts this year [26][27] 3. Investment Demand Analysis 3.1 Real Interest Rate Analysis - The real interest rate represented by TIPS yield is negatively correlated with the silver ETP position. The real interest rate is affected by the nominal interest rate and inflation expectations. The market's expectation of Fed's interest rate cuts this year has changed, and currently, the market expects 2 interest rate cuts this year [33] 3.2 Future Investment Demand Analysis - Fed is facing a dilemma of rising inflation and economic downturn due to Trump's new policies, and there are many variables in interest rate cuts this year. However, the long - term loose monetary policy is expected to support the long - term investment demand for silver [38] 4. Industrial Demand Analysis 4.1 Photovoltaic Silver Demand Analysis - In 2025, the expected growth rate of photovoltaic silver demand turns negative, mainly affected by the innovation of photovoltaic cell technology and the change of photovoltaic policies. The innovation of photovoltaic cell technology has a significant impact, and policy changes may also reduce the domestic photovoltaic installation expectations [40][41][44] 5. Market Outlook - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. The long - term loose monetary policy and expected interest rate cuts support the silver price, but factors such as the rising gold - silver ratio in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts and the decline in industrial demand may put pressure on the silver price. The tariff policy is a key factor affecting the silver price [48]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Fed rate - cut expectations and the repair of the gold - silver ratio drive up silver prices, and tariff uncertainties support gold prices [2]. - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data indicates a possible slowdown in non - farm employment growth, and the labor market remains resilient. Tonight's non - farm data is crucial for gold price trends. Higher - than - expected labor demand may boost wage growth and rate - cut expectations, thus lifting gold prices. Otherwise, the US dollar may strengthen and suppress gold prices [2]. - COMEX gold futures' net long positions in Q2 2025 hit a four - quarter low, and rising gold prices suppress speculative and physical demand for gold. However, in the long - term, US fiscal deficits and damaged dollar credit are positive for gold prices, and the dovish tone of Fed officials boosts silver's industrial properties, with the gold - silver ratio expected to converge [2]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a buy - on - dips strategy. For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8700 - 9000 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 781.28 yuan/gram, up 5.24 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8944 yuan/kilogram, up 197 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 175,461 lots, up 6,865 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 272,055 lots, up 23,032 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 141,322 lots, down 1,842 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 87,981 lots, down 3,833 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipts are 18,456 kilograms, unchanged; the silver warehouse receipts are 1,340,792 kilograms, up 2,133 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 774.59 yuan/gram, up 1.69 yuan; the silver spot price is 8815 yuan/kilogram, up 81 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.69 yuan/gram, down 3.55 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 129 yuan/kilogram, down 116 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, down 0.57 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 14,846.12 tons, down 22.89 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644 contracts; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.24%, up 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.85%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.75%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.76%, up 0.22% [2]. Industry News - The US assesses that Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, and the nuclear program is postponed by 1 - 2 years [2]. - Trump announces a trade agreement with Vietnam, with 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [2]. - The US House of Representatives advances Trump's tax - cut and spending bill [2]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 7.6%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 22.8% [2]. - The market expects 110,000 new non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, against an expected increase of 98,000 [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses the gold-silver ratio, which reflects the relative price relationship between gold and silver, indicating whether silver is undervalued or overvalued. A higher ratio suggests silver is cheaper relative to gold, while a lower ratio indicates the opposite [3][7]. - Historical data shows that the gold-silver ratio reached a peak of 104 in April 2025, but has since declined to 94.14 as of June 20, 2025, with gold priced at $3384.4 per ounce and silver at $35.95 per ounce [3][8]. - The article notes that the gold-silver ratio typically fluctuates within a range, with 80-100 being a top and around 40 being a bottom. The current ratio of 94.14 is above the historical average of approximately 58, suggesting potential for silver price recovery [7][8]. Group 2 - The demand for silver is increasing due to its industrial applications, such as in photovoltaics and electronics, while supply growth is limited, creating a supply-demand gap that supports silver prices [9]. - The article highlights that silver is known for its high volatility, with a volatility rate 1.5 times that of gold [10]. - The recovery of the gold-silver ratio is influenced by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in Federal Reserve policies [11]. Group 3 - Some analysts express skepticism about the recovery of the gold-silver ratio, suggesting it may continue to rise due to the significant increase in silver production compared to gold since 1994, with silver production up by 79.9% and gold by only 43.5% [13]. - The article mentions that when the market shifts focus from gold to silver, it often indicates that prices have already reflected speculative themes, prompting investors to reassess reasonable pricing [13]. Group 4 - Currently, there is only one commodity fund investing in silver, the Guotai Silver LOF (161226), which tracks the performance of the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures [14]. - The fund has underperformed significantly since its inception, which is noted as a drawback for potential investors [14][19]. Group 5 - The article compares the performance of resource-related funds over the past five years, highlighting several funds that have performed relatively well, including Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resource Mixed A and Jiashi Resource Selection Stock A [20][23]. - The performance of the Shanghai Natural Resources Index and the CSI Upstream Resource Industry Index is discussed, with both indices showing similar performance trends over the past decade [25][27]. Group 6 - The article provides valuation metrics for the Shanghai Resource Index and the CSI Upstream Resource Index, noting their respective P/E ratios of 11.74 and 12.09, as well as P/B ratios of 1.39 and 1.41 [32][33]. - The dividend yield for the Shanghai Resource Index is reported at 4.80%, indicating a relatively attractive yield compared to the CSI Upstream Index's 4.63% [34].

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 叶青 北京报道 以伊冲突进入第七天，局势仍维持紧张态势。据新华社报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发表声明称，伊朗武装力量已 对以色列战略目标实施第14轮打击。然而，在此紧张局势下，金融市场出现波动，因美元指数走强，现货黄金价 格一度下探至3350美元/盎司以下，日内跌幅0.55%；白银期货价格也下滑至36.40美元/盎司。 "中东地缘政治恶化引发市场避险情绪，促使资金流入贵金属市场。从历史经验来看，类似冲突期间黄金价格往往 大幅上涨，当前以伊冲突亦推动贵金属市场强劲反弹。此外，除地缘政治因素外，全球流动性预期变化亦对金价 产生重要影响。"西安交大客座教授景川在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 市场避险情绪趋浓 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月19日，伊朗向以色列发动新一轮导弹袭击。伊朗武装部队总参谋长阿卜杜勒—拉希 姆·穆萨维当天视察伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队航空航天部队基地，强调将持续打击以色列目标。报道称，穆萨维称赞航 空航天部队作战表现，肯定其精准有力回击，并表示伊朗行动不受任何限制。 与此同时，以军也对伊朗阿拉克地区进行空袭。当天早些时候，以军发言人向伊朗阿拉克 ...

Group 1: Macro and Stock Index - The Lujiazui Forum released eight major financial policies, including the establishment of a bank - to - bank market transaction reporting library and a digital RMB international operation center. Policies such as optimizing the functions of free trade accounts and developing free - trade offshore bonds are beneficial to cross - border capital flows and foreign - trade enterprise financing, injecting liquidity expectations into the market [2]. - The Shanghai Composite 50 index fell 0.15%, the CSI 300 rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 fell 0.09%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.53%. The 1 - year implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index option was 21.2%, higher than that of the CSI 300 (15.6%), indicating a higher expected volatility for small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - The futures discount rates of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, reflecting short - term selling pressure. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the resonance between technical repair and policy benefits [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The conflict between Iran and Israel is a key factor affecting oil prices. Market sentiment is cautious, and oil price volatility has increased significantly. The summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, supporting price increases [3]. - If the Middle East situation, especially Iran's counter - attack against Israel, continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise. Multiple institutions predict that if the conflict expands, oil prices may return to the high - price range. If the conflict eases, the risk premium of crude oil will quickly decline [3]. - The WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3]. Group 3: Gold - Israel's expanded military strikes on Iran and the threat of enhanced sanctions by the Trump administration have increased the risk of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a continuous increase in the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. Trump's claim to impose new tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry has also intensified concerns about global trade frictions [4]. - The world's largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) has seen inflows for three consecutive days. Gold prices have been consolidating for two consecutive days, trading below $3400 per ounce in the Asian session. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and policy guidance [4][5]. - In the short term, gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, central - bank gold purchases, and expectations of interest - rate cuts, but volatility will increase. If the Fed sends a dovish signal or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted, gold prices may break through $3400. If the geopolitical situation eases or the Fed delays interest - rate cuts, gold prices may回调 to $3350 [5]. Group 4: Silver - On June 18, 2025, during the Asian session, the spot silver price reached a high of $37.313 per ounce, the highest since 2012, and maintained a high - level volatile pattern [6]. - The continuous escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the strengthening of the US military deployment in the Middle East, and Trump's threat to impose new tariffs have increased geopolitical risks, driving up the price of silver. The short - term profit - taking of funds has not changed the net increase in holdings throughout the year [6]. - Silver has broken through the resistance around $37 under the resonance of its financial and industrial attributes. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the Fed's FOMC interest - rate decision on silver prices [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China was 5205 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 185 yuan/ton, and the basis was 309 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil prices supported PTA prices, but the upside was limited [7]. - In June, PTA plant maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The inventory days were 4.03 days, basically the same as the previous period. Polyester factory and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom loads decreased, and the textile market was in a off - season [7]. - In the short term, PTA prices may fluctuate following the cost side [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China was 4547 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 77 yuan/ton, and the basis was 76 yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, some Middle - East plants stopped production, but the overall operating rate increased [8]. - The inventory in East China's main ports decreased, and the demand from polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms declined, with a decrease in terminal order days [8]. - In the short term, ethylene glycol prices may show a narrow - range bullish fluctuation [8]. PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China was 4790 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton. The supply side decreased slightly, and the demand from domestic downstream enterprises did not improve significantly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [9]. - As of June 12, PVC social inventory decreased, but the fundamentals did not improve significantly, and the futures price was oscillating at a low level [9]. - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [9]. PP - The mainstream prices of PP拉丝 in North, East, and South China increased slightly. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene increased, and domestic production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - The average operating rate of downstream industries decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals were weak [10]. - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in market sentiment [10][11]. Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North, East, and South China increased. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises increased, while the operating rate of downstream products decreased [12]. - The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased. The futures price rebounded due to the increase in crude - oil prices, but the fundamentals were weak [12]. - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in market sentiment [12]. Soda Ash - The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions remained unchanged. The overall operating rate of soda ash increased, and production increased significantly [14]. - The manufacturer's inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The demand was average, and the market lacked new driving forces [14]. - The futures market of soda ash is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The market prices of 5mm large - size glass in different regions remained unchanged. The operating rate of float glass increased slightly, and the weekly output decreased slightly [15]. - The manufacturer's inventory decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand remained weak [15]. - The glass futures market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber and raw - material prices in He'ai were provided. Rubber prices rebounded due to market sentiment, but the increase was restricted by the repeated trade - war situation and the oversupply situation [17]. - The domestic and Southeast - Asian rubber - producing areas have entered the harvest season, with a loose supply situation. The operating rates of downstream tire enterprises increased [17]. - Attention should be paid to the operating conditions of the downstream rubber industry, and rubber prices are expected to rebound due to market resonance [17]. Methanol - The domestic spot price of methanol increased. The futures price of the main contract increased, and the port inventory increased. The domestic operating rate of the methanol industry decreased slightly, and Iranian methanol plants stopped production due to geopolitical conflicts [18][19]. - The operating rates of MTO and MTBE devices increased, while the demand from traditional downstream industries remained weak [19]. - In the short term, the futures price of methanol may maintain a slightly bullish oscillation. Attention should be paid to changes in port inventory and the recovery of Iranian plants [19]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China and North China were provided. The USDA's June supply - and - demand report was slightly bullish, but the support was limited [20]. - The domestic corn market is in a transitional period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Downstream demand is weak, but the substitution effect of wheat has decreased, which is beneficial to corn prices [20]. - The main corn futures contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the upper resistance level [20]. Peanut - The spot prices of peanuts in different regions were provided. The increase in the bio - fuel standard in the United States has supported the peanut - futures market, but there is no continuous upward momentum for peanut prices [21]. - It is estimated that the domestic peanut - planting area will increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with a situation of weak supply and demand. Low inventory may drive up prices [21]. - In the short term, the main peanut - futures contract is unlikely to have a trending market and is expected to oscillate within a range [21]. Cotton - The spot price index of Chinese cotton and the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton were provided. The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the USDA's supply - and - demand report have had a bullish impact on cotton prices [22]. - The expected increase in cotton production in the new year may lead to a loose supply situation. Currently, cotton imports are low, and commercial inventory is lower than in previous years. The textile market is in an off - season, with insufficient new orders and increasing inventory pressure [22][23]. - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the previous gap can be filled [23]. Pig - The average price of ternary hybrid pigs in major production and sales areas increased. The supply of pigs in the market is sufficient, while the demand for pork is low. The short - term price increase is due to the adjustment of the supply side by farmers, and the increase is limited [24]. - Attention should be paid to whether the 2509 pig - futures contract can break through the upper resistance level of 14000, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation of pigs [24]. Egg - The egg prices in the main production areas increased. The supply pressure has been relieved due to the continuous elimination of old hens, but the demand is still weak due to the difficulty of egg storage in hot and humid weather [25]. - After a short - term rebound, egg prices are still under pressure. The continuous elimination of old hens will support the market to some extent. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [25]. Soybean No. 2 - The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans were provided. The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans, and weather factors will have a greater impact on the market during the critical growth period of US soybeans [26]. - Soybean No. 2 is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [26]. Soybean Meal - The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions were provided. The repeated US tariff policy and global geopolitical turmoil have affected the market. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for prices [27]. - The operating rate and crushing volume of domestic oil mills are at a high level, with a large supply of soybean meal. Downstream demand is strong, and the inventory accumulation of soybean meal is slow [27]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [27]. Soybean Oil - The spot prices of soybean oil in different regions were provided. The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to a rebound in the external market, driving up domestic soybean - oil prices. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas during the critical growth period [29]. - The operating rate and crushing volume of domestic oil mills have returned to a high level, with an expected increase in the supply of soybean meal. The catering industry is in an off - season, and the inventory - accumulation pressure of soybean oil has increased [29]. - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [29]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import - copper ore index decreased. The continued conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East and the complex situation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts have affected market sentiment [30]. - Domestic support policies have boosted market confidence. The raw - material supply of copper is still disturbed, and domestic copper inventory is decreasing. The game between reality and expectation, as well as between the domestic and foreign markets, has intensified [30]. - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and a defensive strategy is recommended for the time being [30]. Shanghai Aluminum - The Shanghai spot price of aluminum increased. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with sufficient supply [31]. - The traditional off - season effect is significant, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. However, the decline in inventory and the rebound of alumina prices have supported aluminum prices [31]. - Aggressive investors can try to go long with a light position, while conservative investors should wait and see [31]. Alumina - The national average price of alumina decreased. The supply side has increased production capacity, with a serious oversupply situation. The demand from electrolytic - aluminum enterprises is mainly rigid, and there is no arbitrage space for imports and exports [32]. - The port inventory of bauxite has increased, and the cost center of alumina has moved down. The alumina 2509 contract is showing a weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The national and East - China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy increased. The tight supply of scrap aluminum has provided cost support, but the industry is facing the pressure of oversupply due to continuous capacity expansion [33]. - The new - energy vehicle industry is performing well, but it will enter the off - season in the second half of the year. The inventory of aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the current inventory - accumulation trend will continue [33]. - The cast - aluminum - alloy 2511 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventory has decreased significantly. The supply side is still operating at a high level, but demand is weak, except for the resilience of power - battery demand [34]. - The current fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. Conservative investors are recommended to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [34]. Industrial Silicon - The market prices of different types of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The supply side has continued to resume production, with an increase in output. The demand side maintains on - demand procurement, and the inventory is showing a slight downward trend [35]. - The industrial - silicon 2509 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. Polysilicon - The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The supply side has increased production due to the resumption of production in Sichuan and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand side is weak, with a significant decline in the demand from the photovoltaic industry [36][37]. - The polysilicon 2507 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short when the price is high [37]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils remained unchanged. Technically, the downward trend may turn into a low - level oscillation, and the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cost support has weakened, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak, with poor inventory reduction [38]. - Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [38]. Rebar - The spot price of rebar increased. The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The macro sentiment has improved, raw materials in the industrial chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. The demand is in the off - season, inventory is low, and the valuation is relatively low [39]. - It is recommended to take a light - position, low - buying, and slightly bullish approach in the short term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coils increased. Technically, the downward trend is gradually turning to stabilization. Fundamentally, external talks have progressed smoothly, raw materials in the industrial chain have stabilized, the cost center is dynamically operating, apparent demand has rebounded, inventory is low, and the valuation is relatively low [40]. - It is recommended to take a light - position, low - buying, and slightly bullish approach [40]. Iron Ore - The spot prices of iron ore were provided. The supply side has maintained a high level of shipments, and the demand side has a high production enthusiasm of steel mills, with an increase in molten - iron output. The port

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 美钯基金净空进一步回升至17吨为过去31周最高水平。笔者认为纵使钯金的大牛市已经完结，但 要是一天钯金还是维持在巨大净空水平，其他贵金属可能还是比较困难完全转势。美钯基金持仓 已经是连续129周处于净空水平处于历史最长净空当中。 随着黄金的牛市越来越漫长，美股又没有出现大跌的情况下，现时市场的风险承受情绪明显高 昂，大量资金流进白银期货市场，导致美国的白银合约的多头上周急剧攀升，金银比大跌。 不过 随着中东地缘政治转差，金银比又再次回升，显现真金不怕洪炉火。 除了黄金避险外，原油(政局风险)、中国具垄断供应的物料(稀土、锑、钨等)国际价(不是国内价) 理论上应可看高一线。 | | COMEX黄金 | | | COMEX白银 | | Nymex铂金 | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [5] Core Insights - The report discusses how a civilian prediction indicator has become an "invisible driver" of asset prices, particularly in the steel and commodity sectors. It highlights the strong correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and various asset markets, including commodities, bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating this prediction indicator with traditional economic data and policy interest rate curves for more comprehensive asset allocation [6][10] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The steel industry has shown a performance of -1.9% over the last month, -8.7% over the last three months, and 7.6% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has seen -0.4%, -3.3%, and 9.4% respectively [4] Asset Linkage Commodity Market - The report notes a significant rise in silver prices and a strong synchronization between the gold-silver ratio and the "U.S. recession expectation." It suggests that when recession probabilities decrease, silver, which has more industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [12] - The report also mentions that the crude oil VIX has shown a close correlation with the "U.S. recession expectation," indicating that market predictions of oil price volatility are influenced by recession expectations [12] Bond Market - The report indicates that when the "U.S. recession expectation" rises, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tends to weaken, although recent trends show some divergence. The 10-2 year yield spread has shown a complex relationship with recession probabilities [15] Stock Market - The report highlights a strong negative correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and the S&P 500 index, suggesting that rising recession expectations directly impact corporate profit outlooks [21] - It also notes that the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 ratio has not returned to early-year highs despite a temporary decline in recession expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about long-term corporate profitability due to tariff policies [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The report states that the U.S. dollar index has mostly moved inversely to the "U.S. recession expectation," although a gap has emerged since May, potentially linked to U.S. fiscal risks and trade policy uncertainties [22] - The report also mentions that the USD/JPY exchange rate tends to weaken when recession expectations rise, indicating a flight to the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset [22]

黄金险守3380支撑，避险光环为何失效？白银赶超破37关口，金银比又现大幅波动；市场开始定价战争 模式，点阵图博弈再添变数，鲍威尔立场已提前透露风向，资金即将提前入场布局>> 相关链接 ...