Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the trading activity of 30-year Treasury futures, which were once highly favored in the bond market, due to a shift in investor sentiment towards equities and commodities [2][5][8] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, with the stock and commodity markets gaining strength while the bond market remains under pressure, leading to a reallocation of funds away from long-term bonds [3][4][5] - The overall bond market is experiencing a weak performance, particularly in long-term bonds, with the yield curve steepening and short-term yields outperforming long-term yields [4][7] Group 2 - The trading volume and open interest in long-term Treasury futures have been rising since the beginning of 2023, but the recent market dynamics have led to a decrease in their attractiveness as investors shift focus to commodities [5][6] - Institutional investors, including banks and insurance companies, are facing challenges in the current market environment, leading to a cautious approach towards increasing their positions in the bond market [7][8] - Future recovery in bond market sentiment is expected to take time, with potential signals being a decrease in risk appetite and an increase in interest rate cut expectations [8]

海外宏观 2025 年 8 月 17 日 海外宏观周报 美国通胀数据喜忧交织 证券分析师 | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 全球大类资产。截至 8 月 15 日当周，全球多数地区股市继续上涨，非 美股市表现强于美股，美债和美元小幅收跌，金价转跌，油价续跌。本 周美国通胀数据受投资者高度关注，CPI 数据偏弱一度鼓励"降息交 易"，而 PPI数据偏强令这一交易降温，但整体上美联储9月降息的前景 仍然清晰，且美国经济基本面良好，市场风险偏好较高。不过，美国通 胀数据"喜忧参半"可能限制本轮降息空间，推升中长期美债利率，并 令金价承压。非美方面，英国、日本GDP 数据表现积极，英镑、日元、 欧元等均获支撑，令美元指数继续走弱。 风险提示：特朗普政策风险超预期，美国滞胀程度超预期，全球金融市 场波动超预期，国际地缘局势超预期等。 宏观周报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The precious metals sector is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices showing a slight decline while silver prices continue to rise. Recent data indicates that London spot gold has decreased by 0.34% to $3,335.50 per ounce, while Shanghai gold has increased by 0.66% to ¥775.80 per gram. Conversely, London spot silver has risen by 3.40% to $37.73 per ounce, and Shanghai silver has increased by 3.21% to ¥9,204 per kilogram [4][9][10] - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical events and changing interest rate expectations, particularly following the conclusion of the "Putin-Trump" summit and the anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] - The report highlights that the U.S. employment market remains resilient, which may prolong the current interest rate cycle, but there is still significant policy space that could create opportunities for gold investments [5] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, London spot gold has decreased by 0.34% to $3,335.50 per ounce, while Shanghai gold has increased by 0.66% to ¥775.80 per gram. London spot silver has risen by 3.40% to $37.73 per ounce, and Shanghai silver has increased by 3.21% to ¥9,204 per kilogram. Additionally, London spot palladium has decreased by 8.23% to $1,126 per ounce, while platinum has increased by 2.53% to $1,335 per ounce [9][10] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report discusses the impact of U.S. economic data on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, noting that July's CPI data was below expectations while PPI data exceeded expectations, creating uncertainty around potential interest rate cuts [4][5][23] 3. Positions and Trading Volume - The report provides insights into trading volumes and positions in the precious metals market, indicating a decline in holdings for both gold and silver on the Shanghai exchange [4][9][10] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The report notes that the domestic gold price difference compared to international prices has increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [56] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest data, the international gold basis (spot-futures) has increased by $22.95 to -$46.20 per ounce, while the domestic gold basis has risen by ¥0.83 to -¥2.71 per gram [63]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in the US stock market were driven by employment data, initially causing a decline due to recession fears, followed by a rebound as the market anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to support economic growth [2][3] - Major US indices showed significant changes: S&P 500 dropped by 1.60% last week but rose by 1.47% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.24% and then increased by 1.95% [3] - The concept of "rate cut trading" and "recession trading" reflects market reactions to economic data, with the former indicating expectations of lower interest rates and the latter signaling concerns about economic downturns [3] Group 2 - Historical analysis reveals that the US has experienced three significant rate cut cycles since 2000, each initiated during economic difficulties [6][8] - The first rate cut cycle (2001-2003) was marked by the burst of the internet bubble and subsequent economic challenges, leading to a total reduction of 550 basis points in the federal funds rate [14][12] - The second cycle (2007-2008) was triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, with the rate cut reaching a historic low of 0.25% after a cumulative reduction of 500 basis points [18][16] - The third cycle (2019-2020) was characterized by a relatively stable economy, with rate cuts primarily aimed at preemptively addressing trade tensions and economic slowdown, culminating in a total reduction of 225 basis points [25][22] Group 3 - Asset performance during these rate cut cycles showed consistent trends: equity markets typically declined during the rate cuts due to underlying economic challenges, while fixed income and gold assets generally appreciated [30][31] - Current economic indicators suggest that the likelihood of a severe recession is lower compared to previous cycles, potentially reducing the risk of significant declines in equity markets during the upcoming rate cut [40][39] - The anticipated rate cuts may negatively impact the US dollar index, as increased money supply typically leads to currency depreciation [41]

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a significant drop of 2.80%, settling at $3,393.7 per ounce after reaching a record high of $3,534.1 per ounce [1] - Market analysts noted limited reactions to geopolitical events, such as the upcoming video conference on Ukraine, and highlighted increased uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy due to the search for a new Federal Reserve chair [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, several institutions remain optimistic about gold's long-term performance, citing factors like "rate cut trades" and geopolitical tensions as strong support for gold prices [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has classified major gold products, including one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, as import items subject to tariffs, which initially caused gold prices to spike above $3,500 per ounce [1] - The Trump administration is expected to clarify that gold bars should not be subject to tariffs, with an executive order anticipated to address misinformation regarding tariffs on gold and other specialty products [1] - China's central bank reported purchasing 1.86 tons of gold in July, marking nine consecutive months of gold purchases, which aligns with market expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, indicating potential for further increases in precious metal prices [5]

Market Performance - Global stock markets mostly rose last week, with Vietnam's VN30 index leading gains[3] - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 increased by 1.4%, 3.9%, and 2.4% respectively[3] - European indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX up 3.2% and France's CAC40 up 2.6%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Tech index rose by 1.2%, while India's SENSEX30 fell by 0.9%[3] Economic Indicators - The upcoming CPI data release is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of potential rate cuts later this year[3] - The Fed's internal divisions are evident, with some members advocating for three rate cuts this year[3] Geopolitical Risks - The upcoming US-Russia meeting on August 15 may impact global trade stability, especially if negotiations fail[3] - Significant geopolitical tensions could lead to increased sanctions against Russia, further destabilizing global markets[3] Investment Strategy - Market volatility is expected due to upcoming economic data and geopolitical events, suggesting a focus on long-term positions[3] - The anticipated Fed rate cuts (2-3 times this year) make interest rate-sensitive investments attractive, particularly in US Treasuries[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market withstood the shock of the disappointing non - farm payroll data, risk appetite quickly recovered, and the macro - logic shifted to interest - rate cut trading. Risk assets generally rose in price. Overseas, the Fed's "independence" was challenged, and the increasing weight of dovish members strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged again, with July's import and export data exceeding expectations and inflation improving month - on - month. [6] - In the future, the weakening of the US dollar after the non - farm payroll shock is a key macro - factor. Globally, the divergence between sentiment and reality needs to converge, and the pressure of tariffs on the global economy will lead to the re - pricing of risk assets. Domestically, the cooling of overseas sentiment, combined with the economic downward pressure and the failure of policy expectations, will cause the "anti - involution" market to pause, and both the stock and commodity markets will face correction pressure. However, the flexibility of macro - policies may lead to the introduction of unexpected policies. [7] Section Summaries 1. Asset Classes - Overseas, most global major stock markets rose, the VIX index plunged, the BDI index rose continuously, the US dollar index declined, non - US currencies generally benefited, commodity trends were divided, oil prices dropped dragging down the CRB index, while gold and copper rose. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged, July's import and export data exceeded expectations, and inflation improved month - on - month with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months. [6][10] 2. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rose slightly, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger. The stock market generally rose, with the growth - style stocks rising more significantly than value - style stocks, and the market risk preference increased. The domestic commodity sectors were mixed, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.86% weekly, 5 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 5 falling. [6][16] 3. Capital Flows - Last week, the overall capital in the commodity futures market flowed in slightly. The energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, grain, oilseeds, agricultural products, and soft commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - ferrous and soft commodity sectors had obvious outflows. [19] 4. Product Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while the top - falling ones were fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt. [23] 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also declined. Most commodity futures sectors saw a decrease in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, chemicals, and non - ferrous sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the agricultural products and grain sectors saw an obvious increase. [29] 6. Macro Logic - Stock Index - Last week, the four major domestic stock indices fluctuated at high levels after rising and then falling. Both growth and value stocks rose, market sentiment improved significantly, stock index valuations increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP was under pressure. [44] 7. Macro Logic - Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index was under pressure and fluctuated, inflation expectations rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality were intertwined. [46] 8. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, both the stock and commodity markets rose, and the commodity - stock return difference declined slightly. The domestic - priced commodities were more resilient, and the "anti - involution" market continued with the domestic - strong and overseas - weak style of commodities remaining. [54] 9. Macro Logic - US Treasury Bonds - The yield of US Treasury bonds rebounded, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread was stable, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated upwards. [64] 10. Macro Logic - US Economy - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" showed resilience, the impact of tariffs on the economy was initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasury bonds fluctuated around 0. [72] 11. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 - 4.25% is 86.6%, significantly higher than the previous week. There are expectations of further interest - rate cuts in October or December, with a probability of about 40% for 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. [81] 12. China's Economic Data - In July 2025, China's import and export data both exceeded expectations. The inflation data showed that CPI and PPI improved month - on - month, with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months year - on - year. [101][108] 13. "Anti - Involution" Market - The "anti - involution" market in the domestic commodity futures market may pause due to various factors, but the cooling does not mean a reversal. The essence of this market lies in the understanding of "anti - involution". [7][114] 14. "Involution" Analysis - "Involution" refers to the vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources but do not increase overall revenue. It includes low - price competition, homogeneous competition, and "race - to - the - bottom" in marketing. Local governments also contribute to involution through improper policies. The harm of involution is significant at the macro, meso, and micro levels. [119][121][125] - To combat "involution", it is necessary to coordinate supply and demand sides, combine an effective market with an active government, and strengthen industry self - discipline. [136] 15. This Week's Focus - This week, important events include the RBA's interest - rate decision, OPEC's monthly oil market report, US CPI data, and speeches by Fed officials. [163]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US stock market, highlighting the impact of employment data and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a shift from "recession trading" to "rate cut trading" [5][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - In early August, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.60%, while by August 4, it had risen by 1.47%, indicating a significant market reversal [6]. - The Nasdaq index experienced a drop of 2.24% on August 1, followed by a recovery of 1.95% by August 4 [6]. - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 25.5 basis points initially, then only by 2.7 basis points, reflecting changing investor sentiment [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - The article explains the concepts of "rate cut trading" and "recession trading," noting that they are responses to economic data but in opposite directions [7][9]. - Rate cut trading occurs when the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, which generally supports risk assets, while recession trading happens during economic downturns, negatively impacting risk assets [10]. Group 3: Historical Rate Cut Cycles - The article reviews three historical rate cut cycles since 2000, noting that each was initiated during economic difficulties [14][16]. - The first cycle (2001-2003) saw a cumulative rate cut of 550 basis points, with the S&P 500 dropping 26.19% during the rate cut period [21][22]. - The second cycle (2007-2008) involved a 500 basis point cut, with the S&P 500 declining 38.72% during the rate cut period [26]. - The third cycle (2019-2020) was different as it began without a significant recession, but the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to further cuts [27][29]. Group 4: Current Economic Indicators - Recent employment data showed a significant downward revision, with July's non-farm payrolls at 73,000, well below expectations [39]. - The downward revision reflects a cooling job market, potentially influenced by tariff policies affecting hiring [40][41]. - The article suggests that the current economic environment may not indicate a severe recession, which could mitigate risks for equity assets [45][47]. Group 5: Asset Performance Expectations - The article outlines expected asset performance during the current and past rate cut cycles, noting that equities typically decline during rapid rate cuts due to underlying economic challenges [33]. - Fixed income assets like US Treasuries generally perform well during rate cuts, while gold tends to rise due to its safe-haven status [34][35]. - The current environment suggests that while equities may face some pressure, the absence of a significant global crisis could provide some support [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economy showed better - than - expected performance in H1 2025, with GDP growing 5.3% year - on - year, and new industries maintaining rapid development. It is expected that the pro - growth policies will be further strengthened in H2 [4][5] - The futures market has seen significant growth in H1 2025, with an increase in new and effective customers, and an improvement in the customer structure [5] - The gold price reached a new high, and factors such as "interest - rate cut trading", "Trump 2.0", and central bank gold purchases are expected to support the price [6] - The bond market showed an overall volatile and slightly stronger trend after the implementation of the new bond VAT rule, and the relative value of credit bonds increased [19][26] - The A - share market has different views, with some suggesting a focus on strong industrial trends and avoiding some high - valuation sectors, while others believe it is in a bull - market relay with short - term resistance [30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1% [1] - In June 2025, the growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Five futures exchanges will implement the "Programmed Trading Management Measures" from October 9, 2025, to strengthen supervision [2] - In July 2025, CPI turned from a decline to an increase month - on - month, and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed [3] - In H1 2025, the number of new and effective futures customers increased, and the customer structure improved [5] - A number of major foreign investment projects have made progress, and new policies to attract foreign investment will be introduced [5] 3.2.2 Metals - The gold futures price reached a new high, and factors such as "interest - rate cut trading" and central bank gold purchases support the price [6] - The inventory of some metals in the London Metal Exchange changed, with zinc inventory hitting a new low and nickel inventory reaching a new high [6][7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Chile's largest copper mine may resume partial underground operations after an accident [8] - In late July, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous period [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase [9] - Speculators reduced their net long positions in crude oil futures [9][10][11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China will implement comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity to prevent large fluctuations [11] - The pig price was low, and the revenue of listed pig enterprises decreased [11] - The FAO food price index reached a new high in July [11] - Some countries and regions adjusted their agricultural product import policies, which may affect prices [11][13] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Key News - In July 2025, CPI and PPI showed different trends, and the National Bureau of Statistics provided explanations [15] - The "8·11 exchange - rate reform" has improved the market - oriented level of the RMB exchange rate [15] - The regulatory authorities will strengthen the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market without large - scale IPO expansion [16] - The issuance scale of new science - innovation bonds reached 880.659 billion yuan in three months [16] - The real - estate market showed signs of recovery, and some regions optimized housing purchase policies [17] 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - After the implementation of the new bond VAT rule, the bond market showed an overall volatile and slightly stronger trend [19] - The yields of some bonds changed, and the prices of some bonds rose or fell [19][20][21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index rose [23] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The scale of south - bound dim - sum bonds is expected to expand, and the secondary - market liquidity may increase [25] - The convertible bond valuation is at a high level, and the equity market in August has an upward environment [25] - The central bank will be more cautious about policy - rate cuts, and structural policies will be the main focus [25] - The relative value of credit bonds increased after the implementation of the new bond VAT rule [26] - An atypical dumbbell - shaped allocation strategy is recommended for the equity market [26] - The global currency system has hidden risks, and gold may become a substitute for the US - dollar reserve [26] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - Nearly 50 A - share companies proposed mid - term dividends, with a total dividend of over 72 billion yuan [29] - Hong Kong's investment company has invested in over 100 projects, and over 10 companies plan to list in Hong Kong [29] - Public - offering funds increased self - purchases, with a total self - purchase amount of over 5 billion yuan this year [30] - Different views on the A - share market, with some suggesting a focus on strong industrial trends and others seeing short - term resistance [30] - South - bound funds' cumulative net inflow exceeded HK$900 billion, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to have a valuation premium [31]

Group 1 - Industrial Fulian reported a record high revenue of 360.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, with a net profit of 12.11 billion yuan, up 38.6% [2] - In Q2, the revenue exceeded 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 200.34 billion yuan, a 35.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.88 billion yuan, up 51.1% [2] Group 2 - A-share indices collectively rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year, up over 2% for the week [3] - The market is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, with quality tech assets expected to yield significant excess returns in Q3 [3] Group 3 - Major foreign investment projects are progressing steadily, with new policies to encourage foreign investment being implemented [4] - Cities like Wenzhou, Dalian, and Xuzhou have GDP growth rates exceeding 6%, with potential to join the "trillion-dollar club" by year-end [4] Group 4 - In July, the consumer price index (CPI) in Guangdong turned positive, rising 0.5% month-on-month, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% [5] - Hong Kong saw a record number of registered local companies, exceeding 1.5 million, with significant direct investment and job creation [5] Group 5 - Nearly 50 A-share companies have disclosed interim dividend plans, with major firms like China Mobile announcing substantial dividends [6] - The Hong Kong Investment Management Company is focusing on nurturing local startups and investing in quality enterprises [7] Group 6 - The A-share market is expected to face some resistance in the short term but remains in a bull market, with industry rotation accelerating [8] - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of 900.8 billion HKD, indicating a strong preference for Chinese concept stocks [8] Group 7 - The new science and technology bond policy has led to a significant issuance of 880.66 billion yuan in three months, with a low average coupon rate [21] - Gold futures prices reached a historical high, driven by geopolitical factors and central bank policies [22]