Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll data for August is unlikely to show significant changes due to offsetting trends across various industries, with the main risk for financial markets stemming from potential downward revisions of July's data [1] Group 1: Employment Data Insights - A substantial downward revision of July's employment data could indicate a weakening labor market, prompting investors to engage in "economic slowdown trades" [1] - If July's data is significantly adjusted downwards, it is expected that the U.S. stock market will experience a sharp decline followed by a rebound on the same day [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - A downward adjustment in employment data may lead to softening in U.S. stock index futures during pre-market trading, resulting in a decline in stock prices at market open [1] - The "economic slowdown trade" could transition into a "rate cut trade," ultimately driving U.S. stocks to recover from intraday lows [1]

Market Performance - The A-share market continued its downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.16% to close at 3813.56 points, breaking through the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23.641 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 510.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - A total of 823 stocks rose while 4560 stocks declined, indicating a broad market pullback [5] Futures Market - In the futures market, egg and gold prices saw significant increases, while lithium carbonate and stock index futures experienced declines [1] - Participants in the "Economic Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Championship" capitalized on the rising trends of eggs and gold [1] Competitions and Events - The "Economic Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Championship" aims to help investors understand and learn about futures trading, providing a "zero-cost trial and high-reward growth" opportunity [4] - The competition features weekly and monthly rewards, with cash prizes for the top performers [4][10] - The ongoing "Digging Gold Competition" allows participants to engage in simulated stock trading with a virtual fund of 500,000 yuan, with rewards for positive returns [4] Investment Insights - Some participants in the competitions are optimistic about sectors such as AI programming, data labeling, and optical switches [7] - A notable strategy discussed among participants is the "rate cut trade," with recent concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve driving gold prices higher [7] - Participants emphasize the importance of continuous learning and understanding market dynamics to enhance trading skills [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic macro liquidity is expected to remain loose, with the central bank injecting 300 billion yuan through MLF in August, marking six consecutive months of increased operations [2] - There are two major positive factors for September: the 93rd National Day parade, which is believed to be closely related to market sentiment and risk appetite, and the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has risen to over 91%, with a possibility of a significant cut of 50 basis points similar to last September [3] Group 2: Sector Focus - Focus on sectors that may benefit from liquidity easing, prioritizing financials, healthcare, and real estate, followed by technology growth, fintech, and biotechnology [5] - Historical data indicates that cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals tend to perform well in the month of a Fed rate cut [5] Group 3: Company Recommendations - Meitu (3690.HK) has a current P/E ratio of 19.58x, close to its lowest level in a year, indicating high cost-effectiveness for long-term holding [6] - Laopuhuangjin (6181.HK) reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a significant increase of 251% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [8] - ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) achieved a revenue of 71.553 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 14.51%, with a notable growth in its government and enterprise business [13] - Lens Technology (6613.HK) reported a revenue of 32.96 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a 14.18% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.143 billion yuan, up 32.68% [15] - Duolingo (DUOL.US) saw a revenue of $252 million in Q2 2025, a 41.6% increase year-on-year, despite a slowdown in user growth [17][18] - Snap (SNAP.US) reported Q2 revenue of $1.34 billion, slightly below expectations, but the company anticipates a revenue increase in Q3 [20][21] - DoorDash (DASH) achieved a revenue of $3.28 billion in Q2 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, significantly exceeding analyst expectations [22]

Market Overview - AI hardware and digital currency sectors experienced significant declines, while silver and bank stocks performed well. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,750 billion yuan, an increase of 1,250 billion yuan compared to Monday [1]. Federal Reserve Outlook - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve will implement four consecutive interest rate cuts starting in September, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points, due to inflation nearing target levels and rising risks in the labor market [1]. Futures Market Performance - In the futures market, gold and silver saw notable gains, while lithium carbonate and stock index futures faced declines. The "National Futures Simulation Championship" reported that the champion of August, "Mist in the Fog," continued to lead in September with a return of 58.14% after two days of competition [1]. Futures Simulation Championship - The "National Futures Simulation Championship" aims to help investors understand and learn about futures trading, providing a "zero-cost trial and high-reward growth" opportunity. The competition features weekly and monthly rewards, with cash prizes for the top ten participants [1][11]. Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment - Some participants in the competition are optimistic about the gold, silver, and non-ferrous metal sectors. They believe that the "interest rate cut trade" will be a significant theme, as recent gains in gold and silver futures have lagged behind stocks, presenting a favorable risk-reward scenario [9][8]. Participation Benefits - The competition offers numerous benefits for participants, including virtual funds for trading, no real money investment required, and the opportunity to learn from experienced traders. Participants can also access educational resources and market analysis [11][12].

Core Insights - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1][3] Price Movements - As of September 2, COMEX gold futures were reported at $3,563.3 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.49%, peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce; spot gold was at $3,493.38 per ounce, rising 0.52% and hitting a high of $3,508.69 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold prices have also surged, with certain brands exceeding 1,030 RMB per gram; for instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry is priced at 1,041 RMB per gram, while Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook are at 1,034 RMB and 1,037 RMB per gram respectively [5] Market Drivers - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by three main factors: concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to Trump's actions, increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions, and economic data supporting expectations for interest rate cuts [6] - The demand for safe-haven assets is expected to persist due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, reinforcing gold's appeal [7] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts remain strong, with recent economic and employment data aligning with the conditions necessary for such cuts, further supporting gold prices [8] - Analysts suggest that the "rate cut trade" will inject strong momentum into gold price increases, with anticipated adjustments in U.S. monetary policy continuing to support gold in the second half of the year [8]

9月2日，沪金主力暂报806.06元/克，涨幅达1.43%，今日沪金主力开盘价799.54元/克，截至目前最高 809.98元/克，最低799.08元/克。 【宏观消息】 【黄金期货行情表现】 美联储看重的通胀指标创下2月以来最大升幅。美国上诉法院裁定特朗普全球关税多数不合法，但暂未 叫停实施。中国官方PMI显示制造业继续萎缩。华府将撤销三星电子和SK海力士在华事业使用美国技 术的豁免。阿里巴巴人工智能业务表现亮眼，ADR上周五大涨近13%。 美国7月消费支出创四个月来最大增幅，美联储看重的通胀指标核心个人消费支出价格指数创2月以来最 大同比升幅。此外，就业和通胀担忧拖累密歇根大学消费者信心降至三个月低点。 【机构观点】 8月29日夜盘，黄金和白银期货价格同步上涨。沪金主力合约AU2510上涨0.90%至791.28元/克，沪银主 力合约AG2510上涨1.93%至9566元/千克。 上周，黄金连续5天上涨，走出强势波段。截至周五收盘，COMEX黄金成功突破3500美元的关键点 位，并有望再创历史新高。本轮行情始于鲍威尔在全球央行会议上超预期释放鸽派信号，有效提振了贵 金属市场情绪。鲍威尔的讲话预示联储重启降 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold shows potential for a breakout following the release of PCE data, with a 2.89% increase in COMEX gold prices this week, while silver rose by 4.81% [1] - The long-term trend of de-dollarization and the inflow of ETF funds due to interest rate cuts support a positive outlook for precious metals [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, with a 0.99% increase this week, influenced by China's waste copper policy causing short-term supply disruptions [1] - The estimated reduction of at least 30% in the national recycled copper rod production since August indicates ongoing supply vulnerabilities [1] - Anticipation of increased demand in the upcoming "golden September and silver October" period may provide support for copper prices [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to rise, with a 0.53% increase this week, driven by inventory depletion during the "golden September and silver October" period [2] - The impact of U.S. aluminum tariffs is considered limited, and the long-term outlook suggests a potential upward shift in the price ceiling for electrolytic aluminum [2] Group 4: Rare Earths - Significant increase in processing fees for heavy rare earths is expected to improve the performance of related companies, with processing fees for certain rare earths rising dramatically from 1,000-2,000 RMB/ton to 18,000-20,000 RMB/ton [2] - The rise in processing fees is attributed to new regulations limiting processing to designated enterprises, increasing the bargaining power of qualified smelting plants [2] Group 5: Cobalt - Cobalt prices have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, with supply constraints and rising costs affecting production levels [3] - The upcoming policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo in September may serve as a pivotal point for cobalt prices, alongside seasonal demand potentially leading to inventory depletion [3] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include Zhaojin Mining, Xinyi Silver Tin, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - Precious metals are expected to break upward, with gold showing potential for a breakout following the release of PCE data, leading to a 2.89% increase in COMEX gold and a 4.81% increase in silver for the week. The long-term trend of de-dollarization and inflows into ETFs under the backdrop of interest rate cuts support a positive outlook for precious metals [5]. - Copper prices continue to oscillate at high levels, with a 0.99% increase this week. Supply disruptions from China's waste copper policy have led to a significant reduction in recycled copper rod production, estimated to decrease by at least 30% in August. The end of the consumption off-season is approaching, and pre-stocking in September and October may support copper prices [6]. - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with a 0.53% increase this week. The focus remains on inventory reduction during the peak consumption season, and the impact of U.S. aluminum tariffs is considered limited [6]. - Heavy rare earth processing fees have surged, indicating improved performance for related companies. The processing fee for medium and heavy rare earths has increased significantly due to regulatory changes, which may pose risks for small private enterprises [7]. - Cobalt prices have stabilized and are expected to rise, with attention on policy changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in September. Supply constraints and a lack of demand recovery in the domestic market are noted [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 6413.26, with a weekly high of 6413.26 and a low of 3700.9 [2]. Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper increased by 0.99%, aluminum decreased by 0.11%, zinc increased by 0.30%, lead increased by 0.25%, and tin increased by 3.26%. Precious metals: COMEX gold increased by 2.89%, silver increased by 4.81%, NYMEX palladium decreased by 0.92%, and platinum increased by 0.47% [23]. Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes include an increase of 6550 tons in copper, 3810 tons in aluminum, a decrease of 6409 tons in zinc, and a decrease of 13621 tons in lead [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In August, the risk appetite in the capital market increased, and the prices of risk assets generally rose. Overseas, the impact of tariffs in the US began to show, the disappointing non - farm payrolls data shocked the market, and the Fed's policy choices were difficult. The market generally expected a rate cut in September. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market cooled, but A - shares were strong, attracting funds, and the commodity futures market style reversed [5][75]. - The A - share market's strength is due to the change in domestic expectations. After the pessimistic expectations reversed last year, a large amount of funds flowed into the stock market. The emergence of DeepSeek and China's counter - measures in tariff negotiations strengthened market confidence [7][28]. - Weak dollar has become a relatively certain macro - factor. The rate - cut trading based on the weak dollar dominates the pricing of global risk assets [8][68]. Summary by Directory 1. Expected vs. Reality - The most notable macro - issue in August was the unexpectedly strong A - shares, which stemmed from the change in domestic expectations. Asset prices reflect investors' expectations more than the reality. The difference between macro - data and micro - feelings comes from the convergence of expectations and reality [13]. 2. US Stock "Bull" vs. Chinese Real Estate "Bear" - As core assets, the price trends of US stocks and Chinese real estate have significant wealth effects. In the past two years, the bullish US stocks and bearish Chinese real estate had opposite impacts on the two countries [16]. - In the US, the strong consumption of residents is related to the wealth effect of US stocks. In China, the real - estate slump led to residents' de - leveraging and consumption downgrade, while the stock - market strength accelerated the transfer of residents' deposits [17]. 3. Reasons for Expectation Reversal - In September 2024, the Fed started rate - cuts, and China's policy package turned the situation around. In January 2025, the emergence of DeepSeek led to the re - evaluation of Sino - US assets. In April 2025, China's counter - measures in tariff negotiations strengthened domestic confidence. In July 2025, the "anti - involution" trading dominated the domestic market [20]. 4. Underlying Logic of A - share Confidence Bull - Due to the asset shortage, along with the disillusionment of Western myths, technological breakthroughs, and cultural confidence, market confidence was boosted, expectations improved, and undervalued Chinese assets were re - evaluated. Investors adjusted their asset allocation, increasing risk assets [25]. - The strong performance of the stock market changed investors' psychology from scar effect to profit - making effect, leading to the transfer of residents' deposits from physical to financial assets [25]. 5. US 7 - month Non - farm Payrolls Data and Market Reaction - The US non - farm payrolls data in July was disappointing, with an increase of 73,000 in non - farm employment, far lower than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the U6 unemployment rate was 7.9%. The market reaction included a sharp decline in the dollar index, a jump in non - US currencies, a rise in gold prices, and a slight rebound in US stock index futures. Traders' expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September by the Fed increased from 45% to 75% [35][37]. 6. Trump's Intervention in the Fed - Trump removed Fed Governor Cook, and there were a series of personnel changes in the Fed. Trump's actions challenged the Fed's independence and may force the Fed to cut rates to respond to political pressure [38][39]. 7. Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole - Powell's speech signaled a possible rate cut. He pointed out that the US labor market was in a "fragile balance" with rising employment risks, economic growth slowed, inflation pressure existed, and the Fed's policy might be adjusted [41][43]. - The Fed revised its monetary policy framework, including abandoning the focus on the effective lower bound, the average inflation target system, and the "employment shortfall" wording, and emphasizing inflation expectation anchoring [59]. 8. Global Asset Performance - In August, global major stock markets mostly rose, the BDI increased slightly, the dollar fell, non - US currencies strengthened, and commodities rose more than they fell. Domestically, the A - share market was strong, and the commodity futures market style reversed [75]. 9. Domestic Futures Market Performance - In August, the domestic futures market showed a pattern of strong stocks, weak bonds, and a cooling commodity market. The four major stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai 50 rising the least. Commodities showed mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising slightly [6][78]. 10. Commodity Index Trends - The "anti - involution" market cooled, and commodities fell from high levels. Historically, the probability of the South China Commodity Index rising in September is slightly higher, but the potential probability of a decline is also relatively high [80][83]. 11. Stock Index Performance - In August, the stock market continued to rise strongly, with all major stock indexes closing higher. The price - to - earnings ratio of the four major stock indexes increased, and the risk premium decreased, indicating an optimistic market sentiment [87]. 12. Global Economic Performance - The global economic sentiment recovered but was split. The JPMorgan Global Composite PMI rebounded, but the service and manufacturing sectors diverged. The ZEW economic sentiment index of major economies declined, while the consumer confidence index was generally strong [92]. - Inflation in major economies rebounded, with the US having a larger inflation amplitude. The inflation expectations in the bond market increased [103]. - The Fed and the Bank of Japan continued to shrink their balance sheets, the European Central Bank shifted from expanding to shrinking its balance sheet, and the People's Bank of China expanded its balance sheet again [105]. 13. US Economic Performance - The US economic sentiment cooled, inflation rebounded, the manufacturing PMI remained in the contraction range, employment was challenged, and consumer confidence was still low. The impact of tariffs on inflation began to show [111]. 14. Chinese Economic Performance - In July, China's manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, but the overall business activities of enterprises remained in the expansion range [116]. - M2 and M1 growth rates increased, and the growth rate difference between M2 and social financing and M2 and M1 both narrowed. The growth rate of RMB loans hit a new low, and the deposit - loan gap of financial institutions widened [119]. - The recovery of M1 growth is expected to drive the start of the credit cycle, with loose financial conditions, rising inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and a rebound in DR007 [124]. - China's export growth remained resilient, but the pressure on external demand still existed. The export price profit margin turned negative, and the market's expectations for the economic prospects were contradictory [128][130]. - Real estate investment was dragged down, with the decline rates of multiple indicators accelerating, and the high - frequency housing sales data remained sluggish [132]. - Consumption growth declined significantly, travel data was split, and residents' income growth was weak [138]. - CPI remained flat, PPI continued to decline, and the macro - profit margin (CPI - PPI) decreased. The continuation of "anti - involution" may promote domestic re - inflation [142]. 15. Mid - level Industry Performance - Steel prices rose and then fell, with stable blast - furnace operating rates; oil prices declined with inventory reduction; copper prices fluctuated at high levels with inventory accumulation; and coking coal prices rebounded from the bottom [146][147]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fluctuated narrowly at a historical high; domestic freight rates continued to decline, and the BDI fluctuated after an initial decline; and automobile production growth was stable [150].

Group 1: US Market Focus - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts has increased following Trump's announcement to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, leading to a reassessment of "rate cut trades" in US equities [9][12][13] - The Fed is expected to cut rates three times in 2025, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in September [13][14] - Key stocks to watch include Zoom, ServiceNow, and other tech companies that are likely to benefit from the anticipated rate cuts [15][16] Group 2: Taiwan Market Focus - AI remains a significant growth driver for the semiconductor industry, with Taiwan's GDP growth in Q2 2025 exceeding expectations at 7.96% [21][24] - Taiwan's exports saw a substantial increase of 42% in July, driven by strong AI demand, which is expected to enhance the performance visibility of Taiwan's AI supply chain [24][28] - Recommended stocks include Wistron and Taisil, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI demand and supply chain improvements [28][31] Group 3: Malaysia Market Focus - Malaysia's economic growth is slowing, with a revised GDP growth forecast of 4.1% for 2025, influenced by a decrease in oil and gas production [36][41] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from improved asset quality and liquidity, with specific attention on CIMB and Hong Leong Bank [36][46] - The "export rush" effect is diminishing, with July exports showing a 6.8% increase, but future challenges may arise from potential high tariffs on semiconductor and electronic products [41][42]