| | 变量名称 | 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-04 | 2025-05-27 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78170 | 78200 | 78210 | -30.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 64095 | 111382 | 67182 | -47,287.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 193023 | 195214 | 127084 | -2,191.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 31687 | 31933 | 34961 | -246.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMN 1#电解铜平均价 | 78415 | 78485 | 78515 | -70.00 | | | | 沪铜县差 | 245 | 285 | 305 | -40.00 | | | | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -15 | -65 | 220 | 50.00 | nonin | | (现货与期货) | 华北电解铜现货升贴水 | -220 | -220 | ...

操作策略及建议： 1.3360附近做多，止损3352， 目标3392-3412 黄金消息面：周四（6月5日）美盘时段，现货黄金价格显著回落至3359.5美元/盎司附近交投，然而整体走势依然保持强势。虽然美元的小幅反弹对金价上 行构成一定制约，但支撑因素依然稳固，包括美联储降息预期、美债收益率下行、美国财政担忧以及持续的贸易和地缘政治风险。当前市场观望氛围浓厚， 注意力高度集中于即将发布的非农就业数据。从技术角度看，黄金短线仍有上行潜力，若能有效突破3385美元阻力位，则有望打开进一步上涨空间。全球经 济环境的不确定性，特别是美国服务业意外萎缩、就业数据表现疲软以及特朗普政府新关税政策带来的冲击，均为金价提供了强劲的上行动能。此外，大国 间紧张关系、欧美贸易谈判的进展以及市场对美联储降息预期的持续升温，进一步激发了黄金市场的买盘热情，使得金价冲击3400美元重要关口的可能性有 所增加。 黄金走势分析：黄金当前持稳于日线布林中轨（3355）上方，但布林轨道未开口，暗示上行空间受限于前高及上轨阻力3405附近，不宜过分看涨；今天晚上 突破3400至3404，需关注价格能否形成均线多头排列以开启单边趋势。4小时周期显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with recent employment data indicating a slowdown in job growth and an increase in unemployment claims, leading to heightened market caution ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll report [1][2][3]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 247,000 for the week ending May 31, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, marking the highest level in nearly eight months [1]. - The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 235,000, while continuing claims slightly decreased but remained high, indicating prolonged reemployment times for unemployed individuals [1]. - Challenger's report indicated that U.S. employers announced 93,816 layoffs in May, a decrease from April's 105,441 but a 47% increase compared to the same month last year [2]. Job Creation and Economic Sentiment - ADP reported that the private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 and the revised 60,000 from April, representing the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - Economic uncertainty, particularly related to trade policies, has made companies hesitant to hire, with predictions of further labor market weakness in the coming months due to the impact of tariffs [2][3]. Forecasts and Analyst Insights - Analysts predict that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will reveal the true impact of changing trade conditions on the U.S. labor market, with expectations of a decline in job growth to 130,000 from April's 177,000 [2][3]. - The consensus forecast anticipates the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, up from 0.2% [2].

Group 1 - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1345.85 points, down 1.37 points or 0.1% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Commodity Futures Index closed at 1863.53 points, down 1.9 points or 0.1% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Coking coal experienced a rebound due to supply-side news but retreated as the news was not confirmed, closing up 1.68% [2] - The market sentiment for coking coal has cooled, with no significant price increases in the spot market, and some steel mills have initiated price reductions for coking coal [2] - The outlook for coking coal remains weak due to oversupply, with expectations of continued market fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 3 - Tin prices are consolidating after a significant rise, closing up 1.47% [3] - Concerns about slow recovery in supply from Myanmar's Wa State tin mines are affecting market sentiment, while overall consumption remains limited [3] - Economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown, with ADP employment numbers and ISM services PMI both falling below expectations, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - Aluminum futures saw a sharp decline, dropping nearly 3% amid concerns over supply disruptions from Guinea's Axis mine [4] - The market is shifting focus to the potential for oversupply as production resumes, despite current tightness in the spot market [4] Group 5 - Urea futures fell nearly 3%, reaching the lowest level since January, with significant fluctuations in inventory levels reported [6] - The domestic supply of urea remains high, and while demand is stable, the market sentiment is cautious due to the potential for further inventory accumulation [6] - The nitrogen fertilizer association has set a maximum ex-factory price for urea, indicating a controlled pricing environment amid low production costs [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the fluctuation of gold prices, with a current price of $3372.49 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.10% [1] - The US dollar is performing poorly due to ongoing weak economic data, raising concerns about economic growth slowdown and high inflation [3] - Recent data indicates that US service sector activity shrank for the first time in nearly a year, and signs of a slowing labor market have emerged [3] Group 2 - The market is anticipating the US non-farm payroll report for May, which is considered a key indicator of economic health, with expectations of 130,000 new jobs added, down from 177,000 in April, and an unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2% [3] - Gold price analysis suggests that after significant increases, there may be signs of hesitation, indicating a potential for a pullback, although not every hesitation signals a trend reversal [3] - The trading strategy for gold suggests a focus on short positions, with initial support at $3350 and potential targets at $3326 if the price breaks below this support level [5]

北京时间6月4日晚间，美国5月ADP就业数据（俗称"小非农"）以3.7万的新增就业人数震惊市场，仅为预期值11万的三分之一，创2023年3月以来最低增 幅。数据公布后，美元指数短线跳水20个基点，一度跌破99关口至98.9783，现货黄金则飙升6美元至3354.52美元/盎司，凸显市场对经济前景的担忧与避险 需求的激增。叠加当日公布的美国5月ISM服务业PMI降至49.9（近一年首次萎缩），以及特朗普政府上调钢铝关税至50%的政策冲击，黄金多头迎来多重利 好共振。 当日公布的美国5月ISM服务业PMI进一步加剧了市场恐慌。该指数从4月的51.6骤降至49.9，为2024年6月以来首次跌破荣枯线，新订单指数更暴跌5.9个点至 46.4，创近两年最大跌幅。分项数据中，支付价格指数跳升至68.7（2022年11月以来最高），显示企业成本压力仍在累积，而就业指数从50.2降至49.2，印证 劳动力市场恶化。 一、小非农数据"暴击"美元，降息预期白热化 此次ADP数据的疲软程度远超市场预期。此前，市场普遍预测5月私营部门就业将新增11万人，但实际仅为3.7万，且4月数据从8万下修至6万，显示劳动力 市场加速降温。数据公 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold traded around $3,370 per ounce, rising nearly 1% on June 4 due to weak U.S. data and a softening dollar, reaching a high of $3,384.71 [1] - Domestic gold prices reported at ¥781.76 per gram, with a basic gold price of ¥778.1 per gram and retail price for investment gold bars at ¥794.1 per gram [1] Group 2 - Weak U.S. economic data has strengthened the demand for safe-haven assets, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.9 in May, marking the first drop below the neutral line since June 2024, and the ADP employment increase at only 37,000, the lowest in over two years [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, with the Trump administration doubling steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, is expected to increase inflation concerns and enhance gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target to $3,700, emphasizing the combined impact of tariff uncertainty and recession risks [6] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices closed at $3,372.60, maintaining above the 50-day moving average, with significant resistance at the $3,400 level [7] - Silver prices closed at $34.489, forming a doji pattern, with strong resistance at $34.80 and support from the 20-day moving average [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's uncertain tariff policies have raised concerns about consumption and financial tax burdens, leading to an earlier expected timing for the Fed to cut interest rates to September/October. The upstream copper mining industry has multiple factors affecting production, while the downstream copper processing industry has a complex situation with some capacity utilization rates changing. Considering the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs, overseas copper mine production fluctuations, low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously bullish [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On June 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,200 yuan, up 550 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 111,382 lots, an increase of 29,465 lots; open interest was 195,214 lots, up 12,954 lots; inventory was 31,933 tons, an increase of 529 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,485 yuan, up 40 yuan. The Shanghai copper basis decreased by 510 yuan [2] - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on June 4, 2025, was 9,649, up 10.5 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 141,350 tons compared to a previous date. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 48.48, down 3.83; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 109.89, down 6.86 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On June 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.901, up 0.04. The total inventory was 185,683 tons, an increase of 3,057 tons [2] Upstream - Various copper mines have different production situations. For example, the west side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine may resume production in late June, while the east side's drainage may last until February. Some mines in Canada and Indonesia have production disruptions or changes due to mechanical failures or export policies. Multiple new projects are expected to increase production in the future, which may affect the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in June [4] Downstream - The operating rates of China's refined copper rod and recycled copper rod factories have increased compared to last week, while the operating rate of the copper wire and cable industry has decreased. Due to the combination of the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the operating rates of domestic copper processing enterprises may decline in June [4] Investment Strategy - Given the current market situation, it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support levels of 74,600 - 76,600 for Shanghai copper, 9,000 - 9,300 for London copper, and the pressure level of 4.3 - 4.5 for US copper [4]

Macroeconomic Overview - On June 4, international gold prices rose significantly by 0.56%, driven by complex global economic conditions. Poor U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.9 and ADP employment figures falling short of expectations, led investors to seek refuge in gold, with prices reaching a peak of $3384.55 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and enhancing its appeal [1] - The Trump administration's tariff policies, which doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs on June 4, have severely impacted global supply chains, further highlighting gold's safe-haven value [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have surged, with a 77% probability for a cut in September, supported by ADP employment data and inflation pressures [1] - Investors are awaiting the U.S. non-farm payroll report on June 6, which will influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and subsequently affect gold prices [1] U.S. Dollar Index - On June 4, the U.S. dollar index exhibited a fluctuating trend, reaching a high of 99.372 and a low of 98.646, ultimately closing at 98.789 [2] - The market showed weak continuation after an initial upward movement, leading to a significant bearish close [2] - The weekly resistance level is noted at 101.10, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices on June 4 showed an overall upward trend, with a high of $3384.55 and a low of $3343.68, closing at $3372.24 [4] - The market is currently experiencing alternating bullish and bearish trends, with a focus on whether this pattern will continue [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3320-$3322, with a critical threshold at $3360 for short-term movements [5][7] Euro and U.S. Dollar Pair - The Euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate showed an overall increase on June 4, with a low of 1.1356 and a high of 1.1434, closing at 1.1412 [7] - The market remains above key support levels, indicating a bullish outlook in the medium term [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - **Positive (Trend Intensity 2)**: Gold, Silver [24] - **Slightly Positive (Trend Intensity 1)**: Copper, Tin [28][43] - **Neutral (Trend Intensity 0)**: Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Silicomanganese, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal [31][33][36][50][65][69][74][77] - **Slightly Negative (Trend Intensity - 1)**: Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon [54][58] 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The US economic data in May was weak. The ADP employment data was far below expectations, and the ISM services index contracted for the first time in a year, increasing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. Trump also pressured the Fed to cut rates [8][25]. - **Commodity Market Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: The weak ADP data in the US boosted gold, and silver followed the upward trend [21]. - **Base Metals**: The weakening of the US dollar supported copper prices. Aluminum was in a sideways - oscillating state, and alumina was running weakly. Zinc was in range adjustment, lead stabilized at a low level, tin stopped falling and rebounded, and the nickel market was supported by short - term costs but suppressed by weak expectations. Stainless steel prices oscillated in a range due to the game between negative feedback and production cuts [26][29][32][35][38][44]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Industrial silicon was affected by sentiment with limited upside space, and polysilicon had a weak fundamental pattern. Iron ore, rebar, and hot - rolled coil oscillated widely due to market sentiment and industry data. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillated widely with the black - metal sector. Coke started the third round of price cuts, and coking coal was affected by news and oscillated strongly. Steam coal stabilized at the bottom stage [56][59][62][66][71][72][75]. - **Agricultural Products and Others**: Logs oscillated weakly [78]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The "small non - farm" data in the US was much weaker than expected, leading to a rebound in gold, and silver followed. The trend intensities of gold and silver were both 2, indicating a relatively positive outlook [21][24]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The weakening of the US dollar supported copper prices. The trend intensity was 1, showing a slightly positive trend. Some copper producers' production decreased, and Japan's copper imports increased [26][28]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum oscillated sideways, and alumina ran weakly. Their trend intensities were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29][31]. - **Zinc**: Zinc was in range adjustment with a trend intensity of 0 [32][33]. - **Lead**: Lead stabilized at a low level with a trend intensity of 0 [35][36]. - **Tin**: Tin stopped falling and rebounded with a trend intensity of 1 [38][43]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel was supported by short - term costs but suppressed by weak expectations. Stainless steel prices oscillated in a range due to the game between negative feedback and production cuts. Their trend intensities were both 0 [44][50]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was affected by sentiment with limited upside space, and polysilicon had a weak fundamental pattern. Their trend intensities were both - 1 [56][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore oscillated widely due to repeated industry expectations with a trend intensity of - 1 [59]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil were boosted by market sentiment and oscillated widely. Their trend intensities were both 0 [62][65]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillated widely with the black - metal sector. Their trend intensities were both 0 [66][69]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke started the third round of price cuts, and coking coal was affected by news and oscillated strongly. Their trend intensities were both 0 [71][74]. - **Steam Coal**: Steam coal stabilized at the bottom stage with a trend intensity of 0 [75][77]. Others - **Logs**: Logs oscillated weakly [78]