Group 1: Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets generally declined, and US stock futures fell slightly due to escalating geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with silver hitting a new high and gold approaching its historical peak from October [1][3] - International oil prices rebounded significantly, with WTI and Brent crude oil both rising over 1%, driven by Trump's order to impose a comprehensive blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, raising concerns about tighter supply [1][9] - The US dollar index continued its upward trend, increasing by over 0.2% during the day, while US Treasury yields rose slightly, indicating a shift in market focus towards upcoming inflation data for clearer policy direction [1][11] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced a notable surge, with gold prices rising to over $4,330 per ounce, just shy of the October record high of $4,381, and silver surpassing $66 per ounce, marking a historical peak [3][6] - Platinum also saw its fifth consecutive day of gains, reaching its highest level since 2011, reflecting a broader trend of capital flowing into hard assets amid rising geopolitical risks [1][6] Group 3: Employment Data Impact - The latest US employment data showed a modest increase of 64,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, but the data was not seen as severe enough to trigger immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11] - Market expectations for a rate cut in January are currently around 20%, as the Federal Reserve may view the employment report with a balanced perspective rather than a negative one [10][11]

基本面： 白银图表： 周三（12月17日）亚市早盘，白银突破历史新高站上65美元，成为2025年大宗商品中最强劲的反弹之一。现货白银价格今日早盘飙升至每盎司65美元以上， 突破历史纪录，成为2025年大宗商品中最强劲的反弹之一，持续变化的市场动态正推动白银表现远超历史常态。本轮上涨受到供需两端的共同支撑：全球白 银市场已连续第五年出现结构性短缺，开采产出受限，而来自可再生能源、电子产品等工业领域的需求持续扩大；同时，对全球货币政策宽松和实际收益率 走低的预期，降低了持有无息资产的机会成本，吸引了寻求资产多元化和通胀对冲的机构投资者，形成了工业需求与投资需求罕见的共振。 白银已达到其长期目标的最低门槛，只要支撑保持，涨势仍有空间继续上涨，"我理想的目标大约是75到80美元。"白银是否能达到该区间，很大程度上取决 于年底市场的表现。向43至47美元区间的可控回调，可能为最终爆发反弹提供技术结构。"如果我们能达到75到80美元，那可能就是最后的吹风顶。"，美国 11月非农就业增加64,000人，略高于市场预期的50,000，而10月数据被下修至-105,000。失业率上升至4.6%，较前值4.4%有所提高，平均小时 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has surged significantly, reaching a historical high of over $66 per ounce, driven by strong industrial demand and increased investment interest due to economic uncertainties and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations [2][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Wednesday, silver prices broke through $66 per ounce, with spot silver rising over 4% and COMEX silver futures increasing by more than 5% to a peak of $66.5 per ounce [2]. - Year-to-date, silver has outperformed other assets with a remarkable increase of approximately 127%, while gold has risen by 65% [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Weak U.S. economic data has led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [5]. - The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since September 2021, while non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, exceeding expectations [6][7]. - Retail sales remained flat in October, contrary to expectations of a 0.1% increase, and the S&P Global PMI dropped significantly [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver has remained around 50%, making it a key driver of the current bull market [11]. - The World Silver Association projects a supply shortage of 4,633 tons in 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of supply deficits [12]. - The solar energy sector, electric vehicles, and data centers are identified as major growth areas for silver demand, with compound annual growth rates of 17% and 13% respectively [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that silver's investment demand may continue to dominate, with potential for prices to reach $70 due to low inventory levels and significant short squeezes in the market [13]. - However, there are contrasting views, with some analysts warning that the current bull market may be nearing its end, potentially leading to a prolonged bear market starting around 2026 [14][15][16].

美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高，美联 储降息预期上行。"家里有矿，年内涨超有色"的矿业ETF（561330）涨超2%，截至写稿年内涨幅近90%。 就业数据提振降息预期，提振矿业产业链 美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，好于预期，经济学家此前预计非农将增加4.5万人。而10月为减少10.5万人。9月 失业率为4.4%，11月升至4.6%，高于预期的4.5%。由于此前政府停摆导致无法事后补采数据，BLS未能发布10月失业率。 数据来源：ifind，银河证券 高盛预计美联储明年可能会比市场此前假设的更加愿意进一步降息。高盛全球银行与市场部首席策略官兼金融风险主管Josh Schiffrin表示，接下来的几份就 业报告将是决定美联储是否恢复宽松政策的关键因素，市场将特别关注失业率，而不是总体非农就业人数的增长。 展望未来，高盛预计宽松周期将延伸至2026年，联邦基金目标利率可能降至3%或更低。这一展望反映了其观点：通胀将继续温和，同时劳动力市场闲置度 增加，从而为美 ...

Wolfinance星级分析师认为，上周黄金连续冲高，主要因美联储主席鲍威尔，在降息25个基点之后的讲 话中表示，劳动力市场存在显著下行风险，不希望政策抑制就业增长，这引发了市场对明年降息2次的 猜测，美联储的降息预期，拖累美元刷新两个多月新低，为金价上涨提供了支撑，黄金上涨遇阻后，在 本周保持高位震荡，因市场谨慎对待周二公布的美国非农数据，短期卖压有所加强。另外周二公布的美 国非农数据好坏参半，新增就业岗位6.4万高于预期5万，但10月数据被下修至减少10.5万，同时失业率 上升至4.6%，为2021年以来新高，数据表明美国劳动力市场的降温态势仍在持续，数据公布后，市场 对美联储明年降息的预期小幅升温，推动黄金价格反弹。 从之后的走势看，昨日周二欧盘盘中，黄金黄金震荡回落，最低跌至4274美元，在亚盘低点4271美元附 近企稳反弹，美盘开盘后，黄金向上突破4300美元整数位置，涨至4335美元遇阻，回落4291美元企稳 后，黄金反弹4215美元遇阻；周三开盘后，黄金回落4300美元整数位置企稳，涨至4327美元遇阻，目前 交投于4320美元附近。总体来看，黄金在上周五冲高（近两个月高点）遇阻后，本周走势保持 ...

总之，错综复杂的非农数据未能给市场一个明确的方向，反而加剧了多空分歧。短期来看，金价在历史 高位下方明显受阻，技术性回调压力正在累积。然而，美元趋势性走弱和市场对降息的坚定预期，共同 构筑了金价下行的坚实"缓冲垫"。因此，在周四美国CPI数据公布前，金价大概率将维持在4270-4350美 元的宽幅区间内进行高位震荡。 故日内操作上建议： 黄金：4326-4325一线做空，止损4336，目标看4270-4280一线。 12月17日，昨日现货黄金走出大区间震荡。亚盘小幅反弹后转弱，午盘跌破4300美元关口，最低触及 4271美元；欧盘止跌企稳并震荡回升，晚间最高上探至4334美元，随后再度回落，最终收于4302美元附 近，日线收出小阴十字星。 周三（12月17日）昨日的非农报告并未给出清晰的单边信号，而是呈现出一幅矛盾的经济图景，其复杂 程度远超市场预期，促发了市场的剧烈震荡。数据看似疲软（失业率升至4.6%，10月数据大幅下 修），实则暗含韧性（11月新增就业超预期，核心零售销售强劲）。这种矛盾令市场难以对美联储的政 策前景进行一致性定价。 尽管非农数据矛盾，但市场对2026年降息的预期已被加固。利率期货市场目 ...

责任编辑：陈平 12月17日，金价周二小幅上涨，主要受美国11月失业率上升的数据推动，市场认为这将强化美联储未来 降息的预期，并导致美元走软，增强了黄金的吸引力。截至收盘，现货黄金上涨0.2%，报每盎司 4310.21美元。美国黄金期货则微跌0.1%。美元指数跌至两个月低点，同时美国10年期国债收益率小幅 走低，均为金价提供了支撑。市场分析认为，最新的就业报告为美联储提供了更多降息的理由，而低利 率环境通常利好黄金。数据显示，美国11月非农就业岗位虽有所反弹，但失业率从9月的4.4%升至 4.6%，高于经济学家预期。目前利率期货市场预计2026年美联储将累计降息约59个基点。投资者正等 待本周晚些时候公布的美国11月消费者物价指数及个人消费支出物价指数，以进一步确认通胀路径。有 分析师预测，若黄金在2025年收于每盎司4400美元上方，2026年可能有望上探4859至5590美元的区间。 当前盘面来看，维持大原则看涨黄金不变的前提下，继续看黄金在这个周期的调整力度和上涨空间，首 先要强调，在趋势中的上涨空间有多大，这个周期目前的高点是4350，4350破位就看4385，不管是本 周，还是上周的高点都有相对应的 ...

影响上，日内先行受到前两个交易日的回撤看空压力表现走低，之后由于支撑买盘，以及美国10月零售 销售月率对于前值和预期以及美国11月失业率上升创下四年多来最高水平，强化了美联储未来降息的预 期，打压美元走软，提振金价反弹录得日内高点； 但由于11月非农数据明显强于前值，减弱了多头力量，再加上近期的高点阻力压制而遇阻回撤，最终震 荡收线。 展望今日周三（12月17日）：国际黄金亚市早盘先行偏强运行，受到5日均线买盘支撑，以及美元指数 早盘偏弱的影响，不过，美元指数昨日收取垂线止跌看涨形态，短期偏向筑底或反弹，而会限制金价多 头； 同时，金价仍处于关键阻力下方，近日走势震荡，周四及周五美国11月CPI及周初请，和美国12月密歇 根大学消费者信心指数终值、美国12月一年期通胀率预期终值等，整体预期目前好坏参半，而会继续令 金价维持震荡走盘， 12月17日：上交易日周二（12月16日）：国际黄金震荡十字收平跌，继续收取高位见顶看空形态，但整 体走势仍处于5-10日短期均线上方，布林带及走势仍保持着10月底以来的上行趋势，这使得后市前景预 期仍有在反弹高位震荡调整后再度走强攀升。那么操作上，暂还是维持震荡待反弹的行情发展 ...

黄金行情走势分析： 12月17日，黄金昨日先承压4320震荡修整，下方一度回撤至4272附近，晚盘行情有所回弹，非农数据与 失业率虽矛盾，但最终也触发了市场对美联储降息预期的增强，黄金因此在数据后再回升，高点测压 4335附近，其后行情有所回撤至4300附近，日线最终收得一阴十字星线。 日线结构上来看，在前两个交易日均收冲高回落线的情况下，昨日市场情绪已经有回撤修整表现，而非 农数据又打乱了这一技术趋势节奏，不过昨日最终收得高位十字星线，依然还是有负面影响的，即多头 还是有所顾忌的，并不是无脑亢奋式上涨，那么短线也就有进一步调整的可能性。日内黄金上方可关注 日线级别区间上沿4355附近压力测试，下方着重关注5日线4300附近争夺，大概率会在此区域内先震 荡，至于最终是选择上破还是下破暂时不好预判，需要结合后期基本面情况以及市场的实际情绪趋向再 做调整。 小时图上来看，原本预期昨日黄金会有一个较大的回修动作，甚至可能回到4240附近去，然在非农数据 的干扰下，行情并未完全调整到位，技术上积压的空头调整需求也就未能得到充分的释放。隔夜非农后 的行情走势反倒使得行情在小时图级别再度进入高位三角区间震荡的可能，当然基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing a pullback, with the Hang Seng Tech Index nearing its annual line, prompting increased market interest and inflows into related assets, particularly the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) which saw significant net subscriptions [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) recorded a net subscription of 990 million shares in a single day, raising its total shares to 59.663 billion and its latest scale to 42.337 billion yuan [1][5]. - The average daily trading volume of the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) since Q4 2025 has reached 5.468 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity [1][5]. - Factors such as the anticipated release of locked shares in December, a slowdown in southbound capital inflows, and rising expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan have contributed to liquidity pressures in the Hong Kong market [1][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are set to strengthen IPO regulations, which may enhance the quality of listing applications and improve capital allocation efficiency, potentially alleviating liquidity pressures in the long term [1][5]. Group 3: Employment Data Impact - Recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated an increase of 64,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. This volatility in the U.S. job market may reinforce market expectations for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially injecting liquidity into the Hong Kong tech sector [1][5]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen to 22.74, placing it in the lower 31.42% range over the past five years, suggesting potential value for investors [2][6]. - Compared to major tech indices in A-shares and U.S. markets, the Hang Seng Tech Index's valuation is significantly lower, with the Nasdaq Index at 41.09 and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index at 156.57 [2][6]. Group 5: ETF Characteristics - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) is recognized as a preferred tool for investors looking to allocate to the Hong Kong tech sector, with over 220,000 account holders as of the latest mid-year report [3][7]. - The ETF offers advantages such as large scale, superior liquidity, and support for T+0 trading, with an annual management fee of 0.2%, making it a cost-effective option for investors [3][7].